2019-20 Bracketology
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- Kenny Green
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
"Q1 games don't hurt you as a loss - but they launch you for a win. They're hard to come by for most teams, and we have 1 left. That's exacerbated by the fact that everyone else chasing us on the bubble has multiple Q1 games remaining."
Because I'm having so much fun with Basketball Reference today, Rhody has been on or near the bubble many times in recent history and had those "not quite a must win but would be HUGE for the resume" games...only to be absolutely kicked in the dick.
2008: 20-5 and but reeling. #10 Xavier at home. 81-77 loss followed by losing 4 of their last 5.
2009: Before the Matt Glass game, lost to #15 Xavier at home 67-65. Win that and we're 23-8, 12-4 and avoid a red hot Duquesne team in A-10 tourney, plus probably get in anyway.
2010: Had 3 cracks at Top-25 Temple (lost in OT at home), lost to at-large Richmond at home 69-67 when we were 19-3.
2015: Finished 21-8, 11-5. Lost to #17 VCU at home 65-60. Lost to Davidson 60-59. Hass missed 3 of 4 FT's in the final minute. Jack Fucking Gibbs. Davidson gets in as an at-large as a #10 seed. They get blown out in A-10 semis by 20 to VCU while we lose to Dayton by 4. Go 1-1 in those two games and I think we swap with them.
2016: You can also point to the two crushing Dayton losses that we had in the bag that put us against the wall down the stretch, but then you'd also have to point to the VCU and Davidson wins as where we turned it around.
2017: Tough loss at Bonnies, senior night massacre against St. Joe's in a game you can't lose and heart ripper in Davidson. 2-1 there and we avoid the Dukies.
LOOONG story short, if things remain relatively the same in the next 2 weeks, the Dayton game on March 4th has the potential to be way bigger than any of these games. A lot of the bad karma is behind us after finally breaking through in 2016. This will be bigger than #2 St. Joe's coming to the Ryan Center in 2004 because we're in the mix as well. If the stars align and we go 4-0 before that game, we will most certainly be ranked.
I live in San Diego and have two kids under 4 but I'm still checking flights and tickets for that game. 9:00 start! Lots of eyes will be on South Kingstown.
It's not just another game. And unless Dayton completely shits the bed between now and then (I think they can lose to VCU and still be Top-10), it'll be the biggest game in the history of the Ryan Center.
Because I'm having so much fun with Basketball Reference today, Rhody has been on or near the bubble many times in recent history and had those "not quite a must win but would be HUGE for the resume" games...only to be absolutely kicked in the dick.
2008: 20-5 and but reeling. #10 Xavier at home. 81-77 loss followed by losing 4 of their last 5.
2009: Before the Matt Glass game, lost to #15 Xavier at home 67-65. Win that and we're 23-8, 12-4 and avoid a red hot Duquesne team in A-10 tourney, plus probably get in anyway.
2010: Had 3 cracks at Top-25 Temple (lost in OT at home), lost to at-large Richmond at home 69-67 when we were 19-3.
2015: Finished 21-8, 11-5. Lost to #17 VCU at home 65-60. Lost to Davidson 60-59. Hass missed 3 of 4 FT's in the final minute. Jack Fucking Gibbs. Davidson gets in as an at-large as a #10 seed. They get blown out in A-10 semis by 20 to VCU while we lose to Dayton by 4. Go 1-1 in those two games and I think we swap with them.
2016: You can also point to the two crushing Dayton losses that we had in the bag that put us against the wall down the stretch, but then you'd also have to point to the VCU and Davidson wins as where we turned it around.
2017: Tough loss at Bonnies, senior night massacre against St. Joe's in a game you can't lose and heart ripper in Davidson. 2-1 there and we avoid the Dukies.
LOOONG story short, if things remain relatively the same in the next 2 weeks, the Dayton game on March 4th has the potential to be way bigger than any of these games. A lot of the bad karma is behind us after finally breaking through in 2016. This will be bigger than #2 St. Joe's coming to the Ryan Center in 2004 because we're in the mix as well. If the stars align and we go 4-0 before that game, we will most certainly be ranked.
I live in San Diego and have two kids under 4 but I'm still checking flights and tickets for that game. 9:00 start! Lots of eyes will be on South Kingstown.
It's not just another game. And unless Dayton completely shits the bed between now and then (I think they can lose to VCU and still be Top-10), it'll be the biggest game in the history of the Ryan Center.
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
"Bubble objects in mirror are not as close as they appear" ?TruePoint wrote: ↑4 years ago I hope we close 6-0 but two losses will not eliminate us. We will just have some work to do in Brooklyn. I don’t know what it is with this group, exactly (maybe scars from hoping for a miracle during the Baron era), but everyone always thinks our bubble situation is more perilous than it is. In ‘16-17, everyone thought we had to beat VCU in the A10 final to make it, and we found out later that was incorrect. In ‘17-18, we were easily, easily in the field but some here were worried that we’d fallen to the wrong side of the bubble after we lost a couple games down the stretch. This winter around Christmas almost everyone here said that we were screwed because we hadn’t beaten Maryland, LSU or WVU and that the chances to improve our NET were past us - obviously winning at VCU was hard to foresee and that was the real difference maker, but it wasn’t unimaginable to me that we could do well in conference and play our way into the field. I just think in general we have a bit of a syndrome in terms of how we evaluate where we are with respect to the bubble.
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
In today's Bracketville update we've slipped to last bye and we're an 11 seed taking on Ohio State in Albany
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
I just looked at Lunardi's updated bracket and he still has us at a 9. CBS' updated bracket has us first 4 out?
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- Tyson Wheeler
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
That guys a Purdue assclown, 3/4 first four out are all A10. P5 bias much?
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- Carlton Owens
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Just looking at brackets from yesterday, the most favorable to URI seem to be among the worst historically.
Real Time RPI had URI as a 5 seed. They rank 132 out of 133 all time.
KPI had URI as a 6 seed. They rank 129 out of 133 all time.
Team Rankings had URI as a 7 seed. They rank 131 out of 133 all time.
Everyone else as URI 8 or higher. So then I wondered if URI was getting weighted higher from poor "experts" and maybe the better guys had them lower.
If you look at 2/13 updates from the Top 10 forecasters:
#1 Bracketville - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Updated 2/14 and had URI as an 11 seed, last bye.
#2 Pulse - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Could not find an update.
#3 Jacob Stallard - Not positive but think he was included in the BM 2/13 update. Had URI as an 8 seed.
#4 Facts and Bracks - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. They have not updated since 2/10, had URI as a 10 seed.
#5 Switching the Coverage - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. See a bracket from 2/11 than had URI as a 9 seed.
#6 Warren Nolan - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Have no idea where his bracket is on his site.
#7 Hoops HD - Jon Teitel - Included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 10 seed.
#8 Busting Brackets - Lukas Harkins - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 8 seed on 2/12.
#9 The Catch and Shoot - Jesse Kramer - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Not sure where they post their bracket.
#10 One Man Selection Committee - Included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 9 seed.
The 7 I found average a 9.28 which is in the ballpark of URI's current BM average of 9.10. So they aren't being weighted by just the poor guys.
Real Time RPI had URI as a 5 seed. They rank 132 out of 133 all time.
KPI had URI as a 6 seed. They rank 129 out of 133 all time.
Team Rankings had URI as a 7 seed. They rank 131 out of 133 all time.
Everyone else as URI 8 or higher. So then I wondered if URI was getting weighted higher from poor "experts" and maybe the better guys had them lower.
If you look at 2/13 updates from the Top 10 forecasters:
#1 Bracketville - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Updated 2/14 and had URI as an 11 seed, last bye.
#2 Pulse - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Could not find an update.
#3 Jacob Stallard - Not positive but think he was included in the BM 2/13 update. Had URI as an 8 seed.
#4 Facts and Bracks - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. They have not updated since 2/10, had URI as a 10 seed.
#5 Switching the Coverage - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. See a bracket from 2/11 than had URI as a 9 seed.
#6 Warren Nolan - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Have no idea where his bracket is on his site.
#7 Hoops HD - Jon Teitel - Included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 10 seed.
#8 Busting Brackets - Lukas Harkins - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 8 seed on 2/12.
#9 The Catch and Shoot - Jesse Kramer - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Not sure where they post their bracket.
#10 One Man Selection Committee - Included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 9 seed.
The 7 I found average a 9.28 which is in the ballpark of URI's current BM average of 9.10. So they aren't being weighted by just the poor guys.
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Can anybody find out how accurate bracketmatrix has been in the past on selection sunday?
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- Sly Williams
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Thanks for doing the research - frees me up to count green dotsrjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑4 years ago Just looking at brackets from yesterday, the most favorable to URI seem to be among the worst historically.
Real Time RPI had URI as a 5 seed. They rank 132 out of 133 all time.
KPI had URI as a 6 seed. They rank 129 out of 133 all time.
Team Rankings had URI as a 7 seed. They rank 131 out of 133 all time.
Everyone else as URI 8 or higher. So then I wondered if URI was getting weighted higher from poor "experts" and maybe the better guys had them lower.
If you look at 2/13 updates from the Top 10 forecasters:
#1 Bracketville - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Updated 2/14 and had URI as an 11 seed, last bye.
#2 Pulse - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Could not find an update.
#3 Jacob Stallard - Not positive but think he was included in the BM 2/13 update. Had URI as an 8 seed.
#4 Facts and Bracks - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. They have not updated since 2/10, had URI as a 10 seed.
#5 Switching the Coverage - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. See a bracket from 2/11 than had URI as a 9 seed.
#6 Warren Nolan - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Have no idea where his bracket is on his site.
#7 Hoops HD - Jon Teitel - Included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 10 seed.
#8 Busting Brackets - Lukas Harkins - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 8 seed on 2/12.
#9 The Catch and Shoot - Jesse Kramer - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Not sure where they post their bracket.
#10 One Man Selection Committee - Included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 9 seed.
The 7 I found average a 9.28 which is in the ballpark of URI's current BM average of 9.10. So they aren't being weighted by just the poor guys.
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- Cuttino Mobley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Tied for 12th on its own site. Everyone RJ mentioned is more accurate (because BM is a composite that is brought down by the bozos at the bottom like Jerry Palm).PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago Can anybody find out how accurate bracketmatrix has been in the past on selection sunday?
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
I doubt there is anywhere that gives the accuracy this far out. The brackets are usually graded based on the last bracket completed before selection.
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- Carlton Owens
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
For sure and that's a large part of the problem. You are going to have people who rank teams based on today, you are going to have people who try to forecast out to March 15th and approximate what a resume might look like, etc. There is too much volatility to grade prognosticator based on long-term projections simply because a team could look great, lose their best player to injury or just lose 5 of 7 and sink right out of the tournament picture. That said, the end grade is still important because it's still rather unlikely that example: A prognosticator sees a team as a 7 seed in the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday, and then all of a sudden reveal a last-day bracket with a substantial change barring significant deserved movement in either direction.theblueram wrote: ↑4 years ago I doubt there is anywhere that gives the accuracy this far out. The brackets are usually graded based on the last bracket completed before selection.
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Being the top 9 seed on bracket matrix is nice we are in solid shape just keep winning
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
I don't know what to make of Jerry Palm. Dude just seems biased. If not dumb.
Bubble teams in action Saturday.
"Rhode Island has a sweep of VCU but have not beaten anyone better than that. The Rams also have a loss at Brown and at home to Richmond. At some point, they need a signature win, but they were not able to get it done at Dayton last week."
VCU has a NET of 42.
Alabama has a NET of 39.
Bubble teams in action Saturday.
"Rhode Island has a sweep of VCU but have not beaten anyone better than that. The Rams also have a loss at Brown and at home to Richmond. At some point, they need a signature win, but they were not able to get it done at Dayton last week."
VCU has a NET of 42.
Alabama has a NET of 39.
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- Tyson Wheeler
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Palm has been incredibly inaccurate for years. I think he just doesnt understand how it all works.
His way of analyzing it has always been so backwards from every other bracketologist that I've followed.
His way of analyzing it has always been so backwards from every other bracketologist that I've followed.
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
He is one of the worst and his results prove it just disregard him
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
CBS is basically crapping on the A10. Said if Dayton wins the A10 tourney the league is in trouble for bids. How the hell do they have us out of the NCAAT??????
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- Cuttino Mobley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
They can't openly say Jerry Palm is a buffoon. Have to tow the company line. Every accurate bracketologist has URI in, don't worry about that idiot.theblueram wrote: ↑4 years ago CBS is basically crapping on the A10. Said if Dayton wins the A10 tourney the league is in trouble for bids. How the hell do they have us out of the NCAAT??????
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
I think 89 of the 91 have URI in on BM
Palm and somebody else have URI out ???
Palm and somebody else have URI out ???
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- Tyson Wheeler
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
The CBS commentator during the st joes games openly said he disagreed with Palm.
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- Art Stephenson
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Purdue safely in at 14-12...their last 5 games are all against NCAA tournament teams. I wonder if it’s possible they get a bid at 15-16.
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
CBS should hire somebody from one of those top bracketology sites.
Jerry just brackets the way HE thinks it should be selected, not how the selection committee selects their teams.
Jerry just brackets the way HE thinks it should be selected, not how the selection committee selects their teams.
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Agree this is a travesty , how is a 14-12 the top 9 seed what a crockSection104 wrote: ↑4 years ago Purdue safely in at 14-12...their last 5 games are all against NCAA tournament teams. I wonder if it’s possible they get a bid at 15-16.
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- Art Stephenson
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
They have 10 losses to Ken Pom top 32 teams the other two are #84 and #135. They have 7 wins to teams in top 55 in Ken Pom. Their last 5 games are all against Ken Pom top 41 teams.reef wrote: ↑4 years agoAgree this is a travesty , how is a 14-12 the top 9 seed what a crockSection104 wrote: ↑4 years ago Purdue safely in at 14-12...their last 5 games are all against NCAA tournament teams. I wonder if it’s possible they get a bid at 15-16.
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Bracketville has us as the second to last bye and an 11 seed in Cleveland taking on Marquette
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
Take down the Robert Carothers banner and fix the concession stand lines
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- Ernie Calverley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
.......good, I will scout the Marquette team at the Dump Saturday......
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- Ernie Calverley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
We HAVE to win Saturday, or we’re gonna find ourselves on the wrong side of many brackets come Monday.
Go Rhody
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Look at Richmond sneaking in. The Spiders could easily win out the regular season. That would probably put them in. I'd fancy a date with them in the semifinals of the A-10 tournament.
VCU off bracketvilles radar. If they dont beat Dayton tuesday, they'll have to win out from there and probably make the A-10 final to feel safe. They wouldn't be in such dire straits if it weren't for that George Mason loss.
VCU off bracketvilles radar. If they dont beat Dayton tuesday, they'll have to win out from there and probably make the A-10 final to feel safe. They wouldn't be in such dire straits if it weren't for that George Mason loss.
Last edited by PeterRamTime 4 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
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- Ernie Calverley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
......if the criteria for “biggest game of the year” includes some degree of elimination, this Davidson game is in the neighborhood.......
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
They only get bigger from here section 105!section(105) wrote: ↑4 years ago ......if the criteria for “biggest game of the year” includes some degree of elimination, this Davidson game is in the neighborhood.......
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Palm must have had an epiphany yesterday (or he read my ranting). His updated bracket has URI as a 10 seed and Purdue as First 4 out.
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- Ernie Calverley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
I’ve been saying for a couple weeks (in person and on this board) that I think this is the biggest game of the season going forward. Yes bigger than Dayton.section(105) wrote: ↑4 years ago ......if the criteria for “biggest game of the year” includes some degree of elimination, this Davidson game is in the neighborhood.......
Go Rhody
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- Ernie Calverley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
.........I will go with an epiphany.......theblueram wrote: ↑4 years ago Palm must have had an epiphany yesterday (or he read my ranting). His updated bracket has URI as a 10 seed and Purdue as First 4 out.
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- Tyson Wheeler
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
“He got the message”theblueram wrote: ↑4 years ago Palm must have had an epiphany yesterday (or he read my ranting). His updated bracket has URI as a 10 seed and Purdue as First 4 out.
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- Carlton Owens
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Davidson is the game. Win it, close out the rest and regardless of the Dayton game, we’re in. Lose it and all bets are off.
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- Ernie Calverley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Exactly why I’ve been saying this is biggest game of the rest of the year and why I’ve been worried about it so much.KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago Davidson is the game. Win it, close out the rest and regardless of the Dayton game, we’re in. Lose it and all bets are off.
If we lose, we’re going to be under much more pressure the rest of the season.
Go Rhody
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- Cuttino Mobley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
We say it for almost every game, but this is the biggest game of the year. If we can this one I feel free good about our chances and it doesn’t come down to having to beat Dayton as our trump card.Section104 wrote: ↑4 years agoYup...and the game will likely be somewhere between a Pk and 2 point dogs on the road. Big one.
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
......and if that, that is why the UMess game concerns me, bigly.Rhody15 wrote: ↑4 years agoExactly why I’ve been saying this is biggest game of the rest of the year and why I’ve been worried about it so much.KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago Davidson is the game. Win it, close out the rest and regardless of the Dayton game, we’re in. Lose it and all bets are off.
If we lose, we’re going to be under much more pressure the rest of the season.
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Trump card?RamStock wrote: ↑4 years agoWe say it for almost every game, but this is the biggest game of the year. If we can this one I feel free good about our chances and it doesn’t come down to having to beat Dayton as our trump card.Section104 wrote: ↑4 years agoYup...and the game will likely be somewhere between a Pk and 2 point dogs on the road. Big one.
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- Ernie Calverley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Davidson game worries me much much more just because they are a better team / longer road trip, two all conference players (although Mitchell is an absolute stud, Grady and JAG still scare me more.)section(105) wrote: ↑4 years ago......and if that, that is why the UMess game concerns me, bigly.Rhody15 wrote: ↑4 years agoExactly why I’ve been saying this is biggest game of the rest of the year and why I’ve been worried about it so much.KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago Davidson is the game. Win it, close out the rest and regardless of the Dayton game, we’re in. Lose it and all bets are off.
If we lose, we’re going to be under much more pressure the rest of the season.
Go Rhody
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- Ernie Calverley
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Keep in mind Davidson will probably be a Q1 game. That makes this all the more a must win.
With VCU falling off we NEED another Q1.
With VCU falling off we NEED another Q1.
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
There is also an extra level of uncertainty we have going in, in that, Dayton totally knocked us off our 10 game win streak, since then we have only seen a relaxed blowout of St Joe's and now we have a whole week off.RamStock wrote: ↑4 years agoWe say it for almost every game, but this is the biggest game of the year. If we can this one I feel free good about our chances and it doesn’t come down to having to beat Dayton as our trump card.Section104 wrote: ↑4 years agoYup...and the game will likely be somewhere between a Pk and 2 point dogs on the road. Big one.
If this was two or three weeks ago I would feel way more confident because we were on such a roll.
Now we wait to see whether we fall off, stay about the same and edge out a win or start to kick it into another gear heading into march.
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Davidson is definitely a game where I say just get it done, win pretty or win ugly, win by twenty or by one, win a shootout or a slop fest...I literally don’t care as long as we leave North Carolina with a W.
However, I’m going to push back a little bit on the “must win” thing. We have to win 5 more games combined in our final regular season games + the A10 tourney to be an automatic for the tournament, and 4 will put us in a place where we should be in but will have to sweat it out a little bit. I actually think the way the schedule and potential seedings set up for Brooklyn, it doesn’t matter all that much who we beat or who we lose to in either scenario because either we’d avoid bad losses or make up for them with good wins. Get to 23 wins (by hook or by crook) on selection Sunday and we are in.
However, I’m going to push back a little bit on the “must win” thing. We have to win 5 more games combined in our final regular season games + the A10 tourney to be an automatic for the tournament, and 4 will put us in a place where we should be in but will have to sweat it out a little bit. I actually think the way the schedule and potential seedings set up for Brooklyn, it doesn’t matter all that much who we beat or who we lose to in either scenario because either we’d avoid bad losses or make up for them with good wins. Get to 23 wins (by hook or by crook) on selection Sunday and we are in.
"If you build it, they will come." --Us, circa 2011
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- Cuttino Mobley
- Posts: 2032
- Joined: 5 years ago
- x 1459
Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
Beating Dayton will hold a lot of clout with getting into the tournament. Just not sure we can do it and would hate to have to have that one to get inramster wrote: ↑4 years agoTrump card?RamStock wrote: ↑4 years agoWe say it for almost every game, but this is the biggest game of the year. If we can this one I feel free good about our chances and it doesn’t come down to having to beat Dayton as our trump card.Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago
Yup...and the game will likely be somewhere between a Pk and 2 point dogs on the road. Big one.
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- Frank Keaney
- Posts: 15110
- Joined: 11 years ago
- x 5371
Re: 2019-20 Bracketology
I agree with this also we go 3-2 in the next 5 and win our Quarter finals game and I would feel safe on Selection SundayTruePoint wrote: ↑4 years ago Davidson is definitely a game where I say just get it done, win pretty or win ugly, win by twenty or by one, win a shootout or a slop fest...I literally don’t care as long as we leave North Carolina with a W.
However, I’m going to push back a little bit on the “must win” thing. We have to win 5 more games combined in our final regular season games + the A10 tourney to be an automatic for the tournament, and 4 will put us in a place where we should be in but will have to sweat it out a little bit. I actually think the way the schedule and potential seedings set up for Brooklyn, it doesn’t matter all that much who we beat or who we lose to in either scenario because either we’d avoid bad losses or make up for them with good wins. Get to 23 wins (by hook or by crook) on selection Sunday and we are in.
That said if we just beat Davidson on Saturday we are basically in unless we fall off a cliff ???