2019-20 Bracketology

mstyles22 · Unread post by **mstyles22** » 4 years ago

"Q1 games don't hurt you as a loss - but they launch you for a win. They're hard to come by for most teams, and we have 1 left. That's exacerbated by the fact that everyone else chasing us on the bubble has multiple Q1 games remaining."

Because I'm having so much fun with Basketball Reference today, Rhody has been on or near the bubble many times in recent history and had those "not quite a must win but would be HUGE for the resume" games...only to be absolutely kicked in the dick.

2008: 20-5 and but reeling. #10 Xavier at home. 81-77 loss followed by losing 4 of their last 5.

2009: Before the Matt Glass game, lost to #15 Xavier at home 67-65. Win that and we're 23-8, 12-4 and avoid a red hot Duquesne team in A-10 tourney, plus probably get in anyway.

2010: Had 3 cracks at Top-25 Temple (lost in OT at home), lost to at-large Richmond at home 69-67 when we were 19-3.

2015: Finished 21-8, 11-5. Lost to #17 VCU at home 65-60. Lost to Davidson 60-59. Hass missed 3 of 4 FT's in the final minute. Jack Fucking Gibbs. Davidson gets in as an at-large as a #10 seed. They get blown out in A-10 semis by 20 to VCU while we lose to Dayton by 4. Go 1-1 in those two games and I think we swap with them.

2016: You can also point to the two crushing Dayton losses that we had in the bag that put us against the wall down the stretch, but then you'd also have to point to the VCU and Davidson wins as where we turned it around.

2017: Tough loss at Bonnies, senior night massacre against St. Joe's in a game you can't lose and heart ripper in Davidson. 2-1 there and we avoid the Dukies.

LOOONG story short, if things remain relatively the same in the next 2 weeks, the Dayton game on March 4th has the potential to be way bigger than any of these games. A lot of the bad karma is behind us after finally breaking through in 2016. This will be bigger than #2 St. Joe's coming to the Ryan Center in 2004 because we're in the mix as well. If the stars align and we go 4-0 before that game, we will most certainly be ranked.

I live in San Diego and have two kids under 4 but I'm still checking flights and tickets for that game. 9:00 start! Lots of eyes will be on South Kingstown.

It's not just another game. And unless Dayton completely shits the bed between now and then (I think they can lose to VCU and still be Top-10), it'll be the biggest game in the history of the Ryan Center.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 4 years ago

TruePoint wrote: ↑4 years ago I hope we close 6-0 but two losses will not eliminate us. We will just have some work to do in Brooklyn. I don’t know what it is with this group, exactly (maybe scars from hoping for a miracle during the Baron era), but everyone always thinks our bubble situation is more perilous than it is. In ‘16-17, everyone thought we had to beat VCU in the A10 final to make it, and we found out later that was incorrect. In ‘17-18, we were easily, easily in the field but some here were worried that we’d fallen to the wrong side of the bubble after we lost a couple games down the stretch. This winter around Christmas almost everyone here said that we were screwed because we hadn’t beaten Maryland, LSU or WVU and that the chances to improve our NET were past us - obviously winning at VCU was hard to foresee and that was the real difference maker, but it wasn’t unimaginable to me that we could do well in conference and play our way into the field. I just think in general we have a bit of a syndrome in terms of how we evaluate where we are with respect to the bubble.

"Bubble objects in mirror are not as close as they appear" ?

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 4 years ago

In today's Bracketville update we've slipped to last bye and we're an 11 seed taking on Ohio State in Albany

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 4 years ago

In today's Bracket Matrix, we are the number one 9 seed.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 4 years ago

I just looked at Lunardi's updated bracket and he still has us at a 9. CBS' updated bracket has us first 4 out?

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 4 years ago

That guys a Purdue assclown, 3/4 first four out are all A10. P5 bias much?

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 4 years ago

Just looking at brackets from yesterday, the most favorable to URI seem to be among the worst historically.

Real Time RPI had URI as a 5 seed. They rank 132 out of 133 all time.
KPI had URI as a 6 seed. They rank 129 out of 133 all time.
Team Rankings had URI as a 7 seed. They rank 131 out of 133 all time.

Everyone else as URI 8 or higher. So then I wondered if URI was getting weighted higher from poor "experts" and maybe the better guys had them lower.

If you look at 2/13 updates from the Top 10 forecasters:

#1 Bracketville - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Updated 2/14 and had URI as an 11 seed, last bye.
#2 Pulse - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Could not find an update.
#3 Jacob Stallard - Not positive but think he was included in the BM 2/13 update. Had URI as an 8 seed.
#4 Facts and Bracks - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. They have not updated since 2/10, had URI as a 10 seed.
#5 Switching the Coverage - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. See a bracket from 2/11 than had URI as a 9 seed.
#6 Warren Nolan - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Have no idea where his bracket is on his site.
#7 Hoops HD - Jon Teitel - Included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 10 seed.
#8 Busting Brackets - Lukas Harkins - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 8 seed on 2/12.
#9 The Catch and Shoot - Jesse Kramer - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Not sure where they post their bracket.
#10 One Man Selection Committee - Included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 9 seed.

The 7 I found average a 9.28 which is in the ballpark of URI's current BM average of 9.10. So they aren't being weighted by just the poor guys.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 4 years ago

Can anybody find out how accurate bracketmatrix has been in the past on selection sunday?

steviep123 · Unread post by **steviep123** » 4 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑4 years ago Just looking at brackets from yesterday, the most favorable to URI seem to be among the worst historically.

Real Time RPI had URI as a 5 seed. They rank 132 out of 133 all time.
KPI had URI as a 6 seed. They rank 129 out of 133 all time.
Team Rankings had URI as a 7 seed. They rank 131 out of 133 all time.

Everyone else as URI 8 or higher. So then I wondered if URI was getting weighted higher from poor "experts" and maybe the better guys had them lower.

If you look at 2/13 updates from the Top 10 forecasters:

#1 Bracketville - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Updated 2/14 and had URI as an 11 seed, last bye.
#2 Pulse - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Could not find an update.
#3 Jacob Stallard - Not positive but think he was included in the BM 2/13 update. Had URI as an 8 seed.
#4 Facts and Bracks - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. They have not updated since 2/10, had URI as a 10 seed.
#5 Switching the Coverage - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. See a bracket from 2/11 than had URI as a 9 seed.
#6 Warren Nolan - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Have no idea where his bracket is on his site.
#7 Hoops HD - Jon Teitel - Included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 10 seed.
#8 Busting Brackets - Lukas Harkins - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 8 seed on 2/12.
#9 The Catch and Shoot - Jesse Kramer - Not included in BM's 2/13 update. Not sure where they post their bracket.
#10 One Man Selection Committee - Included in BM's 2/13 update. Had URI as a 9 seed.

The 7 I found average a 9.28 which is in the ballpark of URI's current BM average of 9.10. So they aren't being weighted by just the poor guys.

Thanks for doing the research - frees me up to count green dots

RhodyKyle · Unread post by **RhodyKyle** » 4 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago Can anybody find out how accurate bracketmatrix has been in the past on selection sunday?

Tied for 12th on its own site. Everyone RJ mentioned is more accurate (because BM is a composite that is brought down by the bozos at the bottom like Jerry Palm).

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 4 years ago

I doubt there is anywhere that gives the accuracy this far out. The brackets are usually graded based on the last bracket completed before selection.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 4 years ago

theblueram wrote: ↑4 years ago I doubt there is anywhere that gives the accuracy this far out. The brackets are usually graded based on the last bracket completed before selection.

For sure and that's a large part of the problem. You are going to have people who rank teams based on today, you are going to have people who try to forecast out to March 15th and approximate what a resume might look like, etc. There is too much volatility to grade prognosticator based on long-term projections simply because a team could look great, lose their best player to injury or just lose 5 of 7 and sink right out of the tournament picture. That said, the end grade is still important because it's still rather unlikely that example: A prognosticator sees a team as a 7 seed in the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday, and then all of a sudden reveal a last-day bracket with a substantial change barring significant deserved movement in either direction.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

Being the top 9 seed on bracket matrix is nice we are in solid shape just keep winning

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 4 years ago

I don't know what to make of Jerry Palm. Dude just seems biased. If not dumb.

Bubble teams in action Saturday.

"Rhode Island has a sweep of VCU but have not beaten anyone better than that. The Rams also have a loss at Brown and at home to Richmond. At some point, they need a signature win, but they were not able to get it done at Dayton last week."

VCU has a NET of 42.

Alabama has a NET of 39.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 4 years ago

Yea forget Palm.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 4 years ago

Palm has been incredibly inaccurate for years. I think he just doesnt understand how it all works.
His way of analyzing it has always been so backwards from every other bracketologist that I've followed.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

He is one of the worst and his results prove it just disregard him

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 4 years ago

CBS is basically crapping on the A10. Said if Dayton wins the A10 tourney the league is in trouble for bids. How the hell do they have us out of the NCAAT??????

RhodyKyle · Unread post by **RhodyKyle** » 4 years ago

theblueram wrote: ↑4 years ago CBS is basically crapping on the A10. Said if Dayton wins the A10 tourney the league is in trouble for bids. How the hell do they have us out of the NCAAT??????

They can't openly say Jerry Palm is a buffoon. Have to tow the company line. Every accurate bracketologist has URI in, don't worry about that idiot.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

I think 89 of the 91 have URI in on BM

Palm and somebody else have URI out ???

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 4 years ago

The CBS commentator during the st joes games openly said he disagreed with Palm.

giovanni · Unread post by **giovanni** » 4 years ago

Section104 · Unread post by **Section104** » 4 years ago

Purdue safely in at 14-12...their last 5 games are all against NCAA tournament teams. I wonder if it’s possible they get a bid at 15-16.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 4 years ago

CBS should hire somebody from one of those top bracketology sites.

Jerry just brackets the way HE thinks it should be selected, not how the selection committee selects their teams.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago Purdue safely in at 14-12...their last 5 games are all against NCAA tournament teams. I wonder if it’s possible they get a bid at 15-16.

Agree this is a travesty , how is a 14-12 the top 9 seed what a crock

Section104 · Unread post by **Section104** » 4 years ago

reef wrote: ↑4 years ago
Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago Purdue safely in at 14-12...their last 5 games are all against NCAA tournament teams. I wonder if it’s possible they get a bid at 15-16.
Agree this is a travesty , how is a 14-12 the top 9 seed what a crock

They have 10 losses to Ken Pom top 32 teams the other two are #84 and #135. They have 7 wins to teams in top 55 in Ken Pom. Their last 5 games are all against Ken Pom top 41 teams.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 4 years ago

Bracketville has us as the second to last bye and an 11 seed in Cleveland taking on Marquette

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 4 years ago

.......good, I will scout the Marquette team at the Dump Saturday......

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 4 years ago

We HAVE to win Saturday, or we’re gonna find ourselves on the wrong side of many brackets come Monday.

Section104 · Unread post by **Section104** » 4 years ago

Rhody15 wrote: ↑4 years ago We HAVE to win Saturday, or we’re gonna find ourselves on the wrong side of many brackets come Monday.

Yup...and the game will likely be somewhere between a Pk and 2 point dogs on the road. Big one.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 4 years ago

Look at Richmond sneaking in. The Spiders could easily win out the regular season. That would probably put them in. I'd fancy a date with them in the semifinals of the A-10 tournament.

VCU off bracketvilles radar. If they dont beat Dayton tuesday, they'll have to win out from there and probably make the A-10 final to feel safe. They wouldn't be in such dire straits if it weren't for that George Mason loss.

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 4 years ago

......if the criteria for “biggest game of the year” includes some degree of elimination, this Davidson game is in the neighborhood.......

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 4 years ago

section(105) wrote: ↑4 years ago ......if the criteria for “biggest game of the year” includes some degree of elimination, this Davidson game is in the neighborhood.......

They only get bigger from here section 105!

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 4 years ago

Palm must have had an epiphany yesterday (or he read my ranting). His updated bracket has URI as a 10 seed and Purdue as First 4 out.

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 4 years ago

section(105) wrote: ↑4 years ago ......if the criteria for “biggest game of the year” includes some degree of elimination, this Davidson game is in the neighborhood.......

I’ve been saying for a couple weeks (in person and on this board) that I think this is the biggest game of the season going forward. Yes bigger than Dayton.

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 4 years ago

theblueram wrote: ↑4 years ago Palm must have had an epiphany yesterday (or he read my ranting). His updated bracket has URI as a 10 seed and Purdue as First 4 out.

.........I will go with an epiphany.......

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 4 years ago

theblueram wrote: ↑4 years ago Palm must have had an epiphany yesterday (or he read my ranting). His updated bracket has URI as a 10 seed and Purdue as First 4 out.

“He got the message”

KevanBoyles · Unread post by **KevanBoyles** » 4 years ago

Davidson is the game. Win it, close out the rest and regardless of the Dayton game, we’re in. Lose it and all bets are off.

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 4 years ago

KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago Davidson is the game. Win it, close out the rest and regardless of the Dayton game, we’re in. Lose it and all bets are off.

Exactly why I’ve been saying this is biggest game of the rest of the year and why I’ve been worried about it so much.

If we lose, we’re going to be under much more pressure the rest of the season.

RamStock · Unread post by **RamStock** » 4 years ago

Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago
Rhody15 wrote: ↑4 years ago We HAVE to win Saturday, or we’re gonna find ourselves on the wrong side of many brackets come Monday.
Yup...and the game will likely be somewhere between a Pk and 2 point dogs on the road. Big one.

We say it for almost every game, but this is the biggest game of the year. If we can this one I feel free good about our chances and it doesn’t come down to having to beat Dayton as our trump card.

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 4 years ago

Rhody15 wrote: ↑4 years ago
KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago Davidson is the game. Win it, close out the rest and regardless of the Dayton game, we’re in. Lose it and all bets are off.
Exactly why I’ve been saying this is biggest game of the rest of the year and why I’ve been worried about it so much.

If we lose, we’re going to be under much more pressure the rest of the season.

......and if that, that is why the UMess game concerns me, bigly.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

RamStock wrote: ↑4 years ago
Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago
Rhody15 wrote: ↑4 years ago We HAVE to win Saturday, or we’re gonna find ourselves on the wrong side of many brackets come Monday.
Yup...and the game will likely be somewhere between a Pk and 2 point dogs on the road. Big one.
We say it for almost every game, but this is the biggest game of the year. If we can this one I feel free good about our chances and it doesn’t come down to having to beat Dayton as our trump card.

Trump card?

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 4 years ago

....it is probably not green.....

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 4 years ago

section(105) wrote: ↑4 years ago
Rhody15 wrote: ↑4 years ago
KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago Davidson is the game. Win it, close out the rest and regardless of the Dayton game, we’re in. Lose it and all bets are off.
Exactly why I’ve been saying this is biggest game of the rest of the year and why I’ve been worried about it so much.

If we lose, we’re going to be under much more pressure the rest of the season.
......and if that, that is why the UMess game concerns me, bigly.

Davidson game worries me much much more just because they are a better team / longer road trip, two all conference players (although Mitchell is an absolute stud, Grady and JAG still scare me more.)

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 4 years ago

Keep in mind Davidson will probably be a Q1 game. That makes this all the more a must win.

With VCU falling off we NEED another Q1.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 4 years ago

If they focus on 3point D then we should cruise

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 4 years ago

RamStock wrote: ↑4 years ago
Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago
Rhody15 wrote: ↑4 years ago We HAVE to win Saturday, or we’re gonna find ourselves on the wrong side of many brackets come Monday.
Yup...and the game will likely be somewhere between a Pk and 2 point dogs on the road. Big one.
We say it for almost every game, but this is the biggest game of the year. If we can this one I feel free good about our chances and it doesn’t come down to having to beat Dayton as our trump card.

There is also an extra level of uncertainty we have going in, in that, Dayton totally knocked us off our 10 game win streak, since then we have only seen a relaxed blowout of St Joe's and now we have a whole week off.

If this was two or three weeks ago I would feel way more confident because we were on such a roll.

Now we wait to see whether we fall off, stay about the same and edge out a win or start to kick it into another gear heading into march.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

Davidson is definitely a game where I say just get it done, win pretty or win ugly, win by twenty or by one, win a shootout or a slop fest...I literally don’t care as long as we leave North Carolina with a W.

However, I’m going to push back a little bit on the “must win” thing. We have to win 5 more games combined in our final regular season games + the A10 tourney to be an automatic for the tournament, and 4 will put us in a place where we should be in but will have to sweat it out a little bit. I actually think the way the schedule and potential seedings set up for Brooklyn, it doesn’t matter all that much who we beat or who we lose to in either scenario because either we’d avoid bad losses or make up for them with good wins. Get to 23 wins (by hook or by crook) on selection Sunday and we are in.

RamStock · Unread post by **RamStock** » 4 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑4 years ago
RamStock wrote: ↑4 years ago
Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago

Yup...and the game will likely be somewhere between a Pk and 2 point dogs on the road. Big one.
We say it for almost every game, but this is the biggest game of the year. If we can this one I feel free good about our chances and it doesn’t come down to having to beat Dayton as our trump card.
Trump card?

Beating Dayton will hold a lot of clout with getting into the tournament. Just not sure we can do it and would hate to have to have that one to get in

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

TruePoint wrote: ↑4 years ago Davidson is definitely a game where I say just get it done, win pretty or win ugly, win by twenty or by one, win a shootout or a slop fest...I literally don’t care as long as we leave North Carolina with a W.

However, I’m going to push back a little bit on the “must win” thing. We have to win 5 more games combined in our final regular season games + the A10 tourney to be an automatic for the tournament, and 4 will put us in a place where we should be in but will have to sweat it out a little bit. I actually think the way the schedule and potential seedings set up for Brooklyn, it doesn’t matter all that much who we beat or who we lose to in either scenario because either we’d avoid bad losses or make up for them with good wins. Get to 23 wins (by hook or by crook) on selection Sunday and we are in.

I agree with this also we go 3-2 in the next 5 and win our Quarter finals game and I would feel safe on Selection Sunday

That said if we just beat Davidson on Saturday we are basically in unless we fall off a cliff ???