2019 NCAA Tournament Bubble

Da_Process_Survivor · Unread post by **Da_Process_Survivor** » 5 years ago

rambone 78 wrote: ↑5 years ago Teams like Clemson, with a 1-9 record against Q1 should be out, period.

There are others that are on the bubble that only have 1 or 2 wins against tourney teams.

I say, out with them!

Butler is out, unless they magically run through the BE tournament.

Sorry Shaka, your Texas team is out. Looks like he will be out of a job too, really soon.

Both those teams will finish 16-16. Pul-lease.

adding to that...NC State

21-10 (9-9)
2-8 against Q1 teams
padded their record going 12-1 against the 2nd easiest OOC schedule in D1

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 5 years ago

Shoulda stayed put Shaka!

Only has 7 tournament wins out of 6 appearances.

5 of those came on the final four run.

Interesting tidbit.
Wikipedia says he was born in North Kingston, Rhode Island.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaka_Smart

Taylor Swift · Unread post by **Taylor Swift** » 5 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑5 years ago Shoulda stayed put Shaka!

Only has 7 tournament wins out of 6 appearances.

5 of those came on the final four run.

Interesting tidbit.
Wikipedia says he was born in North Kingston, Rhode Island.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaka_Smart

North KingsTOWN - get it right Wikipedia! I never knew he was born here, maybe his family had Navy connections?

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

Da_Process_Survivor wrote: ↑5 years ago Enough said on the NET will help mid majors bullshit

Who is your complaint about? Right now there is only one mid-major that really stands to get screwed, that is Belmont. Belmont should be in.

rambone 78 wrote: ↑5 years ago NC St. Ohio St. Clemson and Alabama are frauds.
So is St. Johns and Texas will be lucky to make it.
Indiana earlier this season lost 12 out of 13......yet they might make it too.

The problem is that some of those teams have had major players not play which makes it hard to judge simply by their record. Here is an example: Texas is 1-5 without their best player, Kerwin Roach. With him, they have wins over UNC, Purdue, and Kansas. He will be back for the Big 12 tournament. For Ohio St., Kaleb Wesson has missed the last 3 games. They are 0-3 in those games. He will be back for the Big 10 tournament. Now, in both cases I would say "You have your star back, win your first tournament game." Ohio St plays Indiana, Texas plays Kansas. I would say both those teams are in a different place then someone like St. John's. They have had some injury issues but have been healthy the last two games and have gone 0-2.

rambone 78 wrote: ↑5 years ago The soft bubble will continue in future years.....P5 conferences going to 20 game schedules.....mid majors in leagues like the A10 and BE.....

Why does 20 games mean soft bubble? Reality is that if all conferences perform better in November in December, it's a stronger bubble. There are a lot of conferences chasing wins because they did not have solid resumes during the OOC. There will still be opportunities for those wins, regardless if a few P5 conferences have a few less OOC games.

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago Don’t think for a minute that recruiters in the P5’s won’t show recruits how the mid majors got screwed by the new, improved, more fair - NET.
And those recruiters will show how mid majors who would have been selected in prior years did not go this year.

This is a delusional post. Mid majors who are not selected this year would also not have been selected last year. While the impact on the NET is still very TBD, the reality is at it's worst, it's selecting teams the same way it was in past years (I.E. - looking at resume and not metrics). No one, I mean no one, knows the impact of the NET. But if there is one team to monitor, it's Belmont as one team that deserves it.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

Some coaches end up maxing out at a certain level.

Looks like Shaka's was A10 level.

Archie at Indiana could have the same situation, but it's only his 2nd year....so too early to call.

Only a select few consistently succeed at the highest levels of the sport.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 5 years ago

Butler is not in the bubble conversation so we don’t have to worry about them

Texas is currently a 10 seed on bracket matrix at 16-15 it would be beyond a joke if they made it with a loss to Kansas finish at 16-16

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 5 years ago

The deck is stacked against mid majors and low majors.....the big boys won't play them unless they come to the big boys....they won't go play then in their places....and if the mid majors are too good the big boys won't play them anywhere...until scheduling rules change there is no relief....

I've been advocating a 30 game schedule for all teams.....15 at home...15 on the road....force scheduling away games....it is not going to be perfect but it will at least move the needle...

I also advocate that if you are sub .500 in your conference you are not eligible for an at large berth.....like the NCAA sets bowl eligibility standards for big-time football....

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

Ramulous wrote: ↑5 years ago The deck is stacked against mid majors and low majors.....the big boys won't play them unless they come to the big boys....they won't go play then in their places....and if the mid majors are too good the big boys won't play them anywhere...until scheduling rules change there is no relief....

I've been advocating a 30 game schedule for all teams.....15 at home...15 on the road....force scheduling away games....it is not going to be perfect but it will at least move the needle...

I also advocate that if you are sub .500 in your conference you are not eligible for an at large berth.....like the NCAA sets bowl eligibility standards for big-time football....

The problem you fail to admit is that some of these teams that only play 10 or 11 road games still play a schedule far harder than anything anyone else has to face. Look at Syracuse - they had road games at Duke, at UNC, at Virginia Tech, at Florida St, at Clemson, at NC St, and at Ohio St. That’s a friggin hard road schedule, doesn’t matter if it’s played in November, January, or March. So to make up some arbitrary number, it’s BS. That’s why it’ll never happen. The committee always says, “It’s about the full body of work.” That’s why they won’t ever eliminate tournament teams by conference record. That’s why they won’t force teams into games either. You have to do what you need to do to put together the best schedule possible. It’s not Syracuse or the ACC’s fault that the A10 struggles to put together 3 top 100 teams out of a 14 team membership. So you want to say “Hey, we know you play in the most challenging conference in America, but you need to play a hard OOC too?” Meanwhile that A10 team or that MWC team hops around through the gumdrop forest? Instead of complaining about what you don’t have, you need to look in the mirror and figure out how to fix it. Whether it’s a scheduling partnership (smart) or flexible conference schedule (smarter), both are easy to implement and are based in more reality than “let’s punish them because we as a collective are inferior.”

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 5 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago
Ramulous wrote: ↑5 years ago The deck is stacked against mid majors and low majors.....the big boys won't play them unless they come to the big boys....they won't go play then in their places....and if the mid majors are too good the big boys won't play them anywhere...until scheduling rules change there is no relief....

I've been advocating a 30 game schedule for all teams.....15 at home...15 on the road....force scheduling away games....it is not going to be perfect but it will at least move the needle...

I also advocate that if you are sub .500 in your conference you are not eligible for an at large berth.....like the NCAA sets bowl eligibility standards for big-time football....
The problem you fail to admit is that some of these teams that only play 10 or 11 road games still play a schedule far harder than anything anyone else has to face. Look at Syracuse - they had road games at Duke, at UNC, at Virginia Tech, at Florida St, at Clemson, at NC St, and at Ohio St. That’s a friggin hard road schedule, doesn’t matter if it’s played in November, January, or March. So to make up some arbitrary number, it’s BS. That’s why it’ll never happen. The committee always says, “It’s about the full body of work.” That’s why they won’t ever eliminate tournament teams by conference record. That’s why they won’t force teams into games either. You have to do what you need to do to put together the best schedule possible. It’s not Syracuse or the ACC’s fault that the A10 struggles to put together 3 top 100 teams out of a 14 team membership. So you want to say “Hey, we know you play in the most challenging conference in America, but you need to play a hard OOC too?” Meanwhile that A10 team or that MWC team hops around through the gumdrop forest? Instead of complaining about what you don’t have, you need to look in the mirror and figure out how to fix it. Whether it’s a scheduling partnership (smart) or flexible conference schedule (smarter), both are easy to implement and are based in more reality than “let’s punish them because we as a collective are inferior.”

He didn’t say anything about forcing teams to play A10 teaans. The issue with your point about Syracuse, since you used their schedule this year as an example, is that yes - that’s a hard road slate. But what do you really learn about them if they go 0-fer on it? If they get drilled by a few teams but beat Ohio State or NC State, is that a sign of their quality or the law of averages? What do you learn about them for absolute certain compared to a team like Murray State unless they play that stretch at or above .500? I’d say not much. Forcing them to go on the road in OOC would at least give you a little more to go on. Wiping up low-majors at home and then going 8-10 in the ACC and 2-7 on the road (those are hypothetical records, to be clear) does not convince me they are really better than a team that goes 17-1 in its conference but is upset in their low-major conference tournament, and as a basketball fan I’d much rather see the latter team on the big stage to see what they can do - I don’t care what their NET rating is, at all.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

That’s why I think the “other” conferences need to get creative with scheduling, to help each other out. It’s really not that complicated. Conference USA came up with their own thing where the top 5 would play each other again after one trip through. A cool idea for the conference, except for the fact that the conference is simply not that good. I think that’s a great idea though, and hopefully your top 5 are good enough to all be Q1 or Q2 type games. Now if you wanted a really innovative but wild idea, you could do something similar between conferences. Let’s say you found 4 like conferences who had a few good teams at the top. You could theoretically have a conference scheduling agreement where after let’s say game 8, game 12, and game 16 of conference play, you face the same seeded team in a partner conference. That’ll ensure that your top teams are definitely playing other top teams, rather than a conference “challenge” which attempts to pair up similar teams but could be a miss if a team has a bad season. Unfortunately, I think these are the types of scheduling tactics necessary to keep up. It’s also not necessarily unprecedented, since “Bracket Busters” used to be a rather spontaneous set of games towards the end of the season.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 5 years ago

St Mary’s up 4 on Zags with 12 minutes left

This would bust somebody’s bubble if SMC wins

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 5 years ago

Zags losing that #1 fo shoowww

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

Clemson loses to NC state in a game that likely decided who goes to the NCAA
Clemson is now 1-10 in Quad 1 games and Brad Brownell and his players are claiming that many of the Quad 1 games were close showing they can play with anyone

Horseshoes and Handgrinades Brad

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 5 years ago

To RJ

The aristocrats and oligarchs rarely think about the plight of the peasant class.....

The NCAA makes rules about football teams being bowl-eligible.....they have plenary powers to dictate scheduling rules

If Syracuse has to go on the road for 6 of their 12 OOC games maybe they lose 3 of them....thereby affecting their NET or RPI or Power ranking...or any other matrix and data the oligarchs use to oppress the peasants...

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

In a game with HUGE implications, TCU beat Oklahoma State.

Amazingly Bobby Huggins WVU Mountaineers upset Oklahoma in a 1st round game. Oklahoma actually tied the game with a 3 pointer at the buzzer BUT refs replayed and determined foot was in the line reversing the call on the court to a 2 pointer and therefore Win for Huggybear and team.
Huggins now goes up against Texas Tech tomorrow. What an amazing story if they can beat the Red Raiders. A huge long shot but Oklahoma was too

Oklahoma really worried considering a first round kiss and no more chances for victories prior to selection Sunday. Horrible loss and terrible timing for the Sooners.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 5 years ago

That was a big win for TCU and they may need to win another to secure a berth

Texas has dropped to first 4 out on most brackets so they are out with a loss to KU

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

Marquette totally dismantled St John's 84-52. Not a good look for bubble teams. Likely removes St John's
West Virginia with another amazing win over red hot Texas Tech - Huggins team was only 4-14 in Conference Play

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 5 years ago

Yeah St John’s can’t feel too safe though they are probably still in the field as of now

Say goodbye to Shaka Smart and the Texas Longhorns though

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

I doubt St. Johns makes it now. They have completely crashed and burned. The BE looks to have 4 in...Villanova and Marquette of course, plus Seton Hall and maybe Xavier.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 5 years ago

Xavier better not get in. They aren’t even on the Bracket matrix. Not one bracket has them.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

I didn't realize Xavier's NET was around 70.

They should NOT get in, then.

If St. Johns gets in, that's a joke.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

Villanova defeats Seton Hall by 2 points
5 seed Iowa State beats Kansas for the Big 12 championship

Bowling Green tied 52 all with Buffalo in trying to steal a bid
Utah State wins the championship Sealing a bid along with Nevada

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

Yeah if Buffalo loses another bid gets swiped...only one more potential bid stealer game later tonight, Oregon against Washington.

None tomorrow. Wonder if VCU fans feel sure of a bid?

Their lack of Q1 wins could be a problem...remember the lack of respect the A10 gets with bubble teams.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

Buffalo pulls away late...no stealers here.

That team has been in quite a few close games late...and almost always seems to win them.

That Oats guy can coach a bit......

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

Oregon vs Washington is a good game
Enjoy listening to this tandem. Bill Walton makes things fun
Oregon could steal a bid for the conference

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 5 years ago

St John’s and Temple could be the last 2 in ???

NC State weak SOS may keep them out

ASU should make it in

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

#6 seed Oregon upsets #1 seed Washington beating them by 20 points!
Oregon is no longer on the bubble and steals a bid from somebody on Sunday

Payton Pritchard was fantastic for Oregon. He was the best player on the game and maybe for the league. He played against URI in Sacramento.

Rhode_Island_Red · Unread post by **Rhode_Island_Red** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago #6 seed Oregon upsets #1 seed Washington beating them by 20 points!
Oregon is no longer on the bubble and steals a bid from somebody on Sunday

Payton Pritchard was fantastic for Oregon. He was the best player on the game and maybe for the league. He played against URI in Sacramento.

Screw Oregon. We should have beaten them in 2017, but we were playing five against eight.

steviep123 · Unread post by **steviep123** » 5 years ago

Rhode_Island_Red wrote: ↑5 years ago
ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago #6 seed Oregon upsets #1 seed Washington beating them by 20 points!
Oregon is no longer on the bubble and steals a bid from somebody on Sunday

Payton Pritchard was fantastic for Oregon. He was the best player on the game and maybe for the league. He played against URI in Sacramento.
Screw Oregon. We should have beaten them in 2017, but we were playing five against eight.

That offensive foul call in EC Matthews was just as bad as the non foul call on Lee in the Stanford game in 1998 when it was clear he was trying to foul Mobley.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

10 Bubble Teams Update from USA Today

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 186433002/

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 5 years ago

The Bracket Matrix has St John's as the last at large with Temple close behind it.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

SJU has a bad NET rank of 73, played a poor OOC schedule, and faded down the stretch. I would rather see a Belmont over them. Another at large, NC State has a good NET rank of 33, but by one metric, played the weakest OOC schedule of all 353 D1 teams. That should not be rewarded and was not with St Mary's last year.

NET Rankings
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings

URI is at #137 out of 353. Other RI schools are PC at #70, Brown #145, and Bryant is #322. For the A-10, VCU is #34, Dayton #69, Davidson #75, SLU #103, SBU #118, GMU #153, Duquesne #170, St Joe's #171, Richmond #194, LaSallle #214, UMass #224, Fordham #243, and GW #283.

UCH21377 · Unread post by **UCH21377** » 5 years ago

I’m more ok with NC State than Johnnies who totally fell apart. Ohio St does not belong either IMO. Belmont deserving but probably won’t get in. Don’t think Tempke is deserving either.

steviep123 · Unread post by **steviep123** » 5 years ago

Temple and Belmont are more deserving than either St. John's or NC State. If they are going to (rightfully) not reward St. Mary's for a soft schedule last year, then don't reward NC State this year.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

Ron Hunter going to the NCAA's again as Georgia State defeats Texas Arlington
Cincinnati leading Houston 31-24 wit a minute til halftime
Auburn beats Tennessee by 20 - amazing margin
Michigan - Michigan State is a great game
Yale grabs a bid defeating Harvard. Bryce Aiken with an amazing 38 points for Harvard

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago Ron Hunter going to the NCAA's again as Georgia State defeats Texas Arlington
Cincinnati leading Houston 31-24 wit a minute til halftime
Auburn beats Tennessee by 20 - amazing margin
Michigan - Michigan State is a great game
Yale grabs a bid defeating Harvard. Bryce Aiken with an amazing 38 points for Harvard

Harvard was the Ivy #1 seed regular season champ. They get an automatic NIT bid decreasing the at large NIT field.

eli#10 · Unread post by **eli#10** » 5 years ago

Let's not forget that the Johnnies got a huge break vs VCU when an obvious foul on a 3 pointer at the buzzer was not called and VCU lost by 1. If that call had been made the Johnnies would be where they belong and that is in the NIT.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 5 years ago

Agree on Peyton Pritchard kid is outstanding

Surprising that NC St OOC SOS is so bad didn’t they play Auburn and Wisconsin???? 2 good teams

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 5 years ago

Good for Belmont and Fran Dunphy!

The last two years have spoiled me. I care about ASU. But overall, meh.

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 5 years ago

St. Lou and VCU in the same half of the East bracket. That sucks. With that the A10 can only get one team to the Elite 8. I guess since the NCAA can't screw URI this year they are just taking it out on the conference.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 5 years ago

The A10 was not good this year. They were lucky to get two teams in. I don’t think anyone’s getting screwed.

Cincinnati may have some room to complain, though.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 5 years ago

With half the bracket announced, St John's fans should be very worried.

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 5 years ago

ace wrote: ↑5 years ago The A10 was not good this year. They were lucky to get two teams in. I don’t think anyone’s getting screwed.

I know Ace. I was being facetious about getting screwed. Still surprised that they would put both teams not only in the same bracket, but in the same half of the bracket. That seems odd and rare.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 5 years ago

It is a miracle VCU is an 8 seed. Some chatter after URI beat them was that they were a potential snub. The Nate Silver of brackets had them as a 38% chance to get left out.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 5 years ago

VCU is an 8 but Cincinnati is a 7? Seems off.

I love the Seton Hall-Wofford matchup.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 5 years ago

Potential Buffalo-ASU game? Damn. There’s some storylines there.

But I hope we see it because I like when St. John’s loses.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 5 years ago

ace wrote: ↑5 years ago Potential Buffalo-ASU game? Damn. There’s some storylines there.

But I hope we see it because I like when St. John’s loses.

Fun

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

ace wrote: ↑5 years ago Good for Belmont and Fran Dunphy!

The last two years have spoiled me. I care about ASU. But overall, meh.

Same with me.
I was hoping for both Belmont and Temple. AAC gets 4 teams in with UCF playing VCU. Cinncinnati and Houston.

Too bad Belmont and Temple play one another - would have like to see both play P5’s

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 5 years ago

Nevada only got a 7 seed. Hope they lose their first game.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 5 years ago

Gotta love Florida giving a pounding to Nevada

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 5 years ago

It's possible that because of URI, the league got an extra team in the tourney for the second year in a row.