2019 NCAA Tournament Bubble

Da_Process_Survivor · Unread post by **Da_Process_Survivor** » 5 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago
JimSidd wrote: ↑5 years ago I would rather see the committee select Belmont as an at large team than some P5 team with a sub .500 conference record that is limping to the finish a bit, like Ohio State or Texas. I think it’s unlikely that any of these three teams advances to the second weekend, so I would rather see a team like Belmont be given a chance to take down a P5 school. I have been watching the tournament since the early 70s, so I’m part of that old school group that roots for the little guy taking down a big school in round one, even though that team usually loses easily in Round two. If Texas and Ohio St do damage in their respective conference tournaments, they can simply replace one of their conference brethren bubble teams that most likely exited early.
In all honesty, I think Belmont should be in. They have a 2-2 Q1 record and a 3-1 Q2 record. I think that offsets their bad losses (2), something most bubble teams have. The things working against them would be SOS (191) and average NET win (234). They were 17-0 against Q4 teams. The NET is supposed to account for this though. The committee should not be taking a team because of some arbitrary conference record ruling. But in this case, I think Belmont probably earned it, even if you want to stick them in a First Four game to prove it.

The using only total Q1 wins and ignoring the # of losses is one of the biggest gripes about the committee and the switch to NET isnt going to solve it.

when comparing mid majors to P5 in respect to the bubble, they always say something to the effect of "Mid Major team only has 3 Q1 wins...P5 team has 6 Q1 wins"

but they ignore that most of the time that difference in raw total is purely because the P5 team gets far more chances from their conference schedule, where a mid major is stuck trying to get them in OOC play when most P5 schools wont touch a good mid major there.

Would much rather see them use Q1 winning %. In the above, the MM team at say 3-1 vs Q1 should carry more weight than the P5 team being 6-10

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

Until last night I think Clemson was 1-10 in Q1 games.

And they're getting in?

Stupid.

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 5 years ago

If Texas loses in their first round game against Kansas, they will be 16-16, and should not be anywhere close to the bubble. Not first four out, not next four out. Should not even be brought up as a bubble team.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 5 years ago

Ramster you finally willing to concede the A10 is a 1 bid league this year unless someone not named VCU wins the tourney?

IMO even VCU doesn't have a great resume, with their only resume wins over Temple and Texas (both bubble teams, the latter absurdly still on bubble) but they are either riding their brand name or a modicum of respect for their conference performance to an 8-9 seed in most brackets.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

Da_Process_Survivor wrote: ↑5 years ago
Would much rather see them use Q1 winning %. In the above, the MM team at say 3-1 vs Q1 should carry more weight than the P5 team being 6-10

I agree and I disagree.
SOS still should matter, even within quadrants.
It makes it hard to just grade people just on win percentage -- An 0-2 team against the #1 and #2 in the country can still be better than a 2-0 team against #74 and #75 in the country.
But that is what a metric like the NET is supposed to help determine.
I also agree that teams shouldn't be graded by total wins but also percentage all things being roughly equal.

rhodysurf · Unread post by **rhodysurf** » 5 years ago

bigappleram wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster you finally willing to concede the A10 is a 1 bid league this year unless someone not named VCU wins the tourney?

IMO even VCU doesn't have a great resume, with their only resume wins over Temple and Texas (both bubble teams, the latter absurdly still on bubble) but they are either riding their brand name or a modicum of respect for their conference performance to an 8-9 seed in most brackets.

Yeah VCU is a weird one. They definitely benefit from a weak bubble. Their board is calling for them to be ranked this week, but IMO they aren't really a top 25 team.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

VCU is helped by the weak bubble, but they definitely deserve to be in the tournament.
They still have a top 50 SOS.
They are 3-2 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 2 bad losses (almost 1 because of URI).
They have a NET of 31, a BPI of 33, a KenPom of 32, and a Sag of 48.
They are the team that hasn't played a good conference schedule but has dominated the teams on it.
They are +231 in their 18 conference games (+12.83 ppg).

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

bigappleram wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster you finally willing to concede the A10 is a 1 bid league this year unless someone not named VCU wins the tourney?

IMO even VCU doesn't have a great resume, with their only resume wins over Temple and Texas (both bubble teams, the latter absurdly still on bubble) but they are either riding their brand name or a modicum of respect for their conference performance to an 8-9 seed in most brackets.

Nope.
I still think the A10 gets more than 1 team in the Tournament
I do not think that VCU will win the Tournament
What hurt the A10 also was that both Dayton and Davidson lost games that they should not have in the past weeks.
Davidson lost @ LaSalle and Dayton lost to URI on their home court

Otherwise Davidson would have ended up 15-3 and Dayton 14-4.

#1 Seed has not won the A10 Tournament in a long time - 6 or 7 years. There are a number of teams that can win the A10 Tournament even besides VCU, Davidson and Dayton
Many predicted a parity, lousy A10 with teams finishing with relatively poor records. Nobody say VCU finishing with only 2 losses. Even Dayton and Davidson finished with solid Won Lost records.

It's going to be a great tournament. URI could win the A10, so could St Bonaventure, Saint Louis or Duquesne in addition to VCU, Dayton or Davidson. It is wide open.

VCU has to be in the NCAA Tournament with a 16-2 record, win or lose in the A10 Tourney.

Picture30.png

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 5 years ago

ramster...you said "nope" to BAR's question which would seem to indicate you think that Davidson and/or Dayton (or someone else though I can't imagine who) can get in without winning the conference tournament. do you have a farm you would be willing to bet towards that end? if so, I know a taker...

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
bigappleram wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster you finally willing to concede the A10 is a 1 bid league this year unless someone not named VCU wins the tourney?

IMO even VCU doesn't have a great resume, with their only resume wins over Temple and Texas (both bubble teams, the latter absurdly still on bubble) but they are either riding their brand name or a modicum of respect for their conference performance to an 8-9 seed in most brackets.
Nope.
I still think the A10 gets more than 1 team in the Tournament
I do not think that VCU will win the Tournament
What hurt the A10 also was that both Dayton and Davidson lost games that they should not have in the past weeks.
Davidson lost @ LaSalle and Dayton lost to URI on their home court

Otherwise Davidson would have ended up 15-3 and Dayton 14-4.

#1 Seed has not won the A10 Tournament in a long time - 6 or 7 years. There are a number of teams that can win the A10 Tournament even besides VCU, Davidson and Dayton
Many predicted a parity, lousy A10 with teams finishing with relatively poor records. Nobody say VCU finishing with only 2 losses. Even Dayton and Davidson finished with solid Won Lost records.

It's going to be a great tournament. URI could win the A10, so could St Bonaventure, Saint Louis or Duquesne in addition to VCU, Dayton or Davidson. It is wide open.

VCU has to be in the NCAA Tournament with a 16-2 record, win or lose in the A10 Tourney.

Picture30.png

Ramster, I said if VCU doesn't win the tourney...that means you conceding that no other A10 team has a tourney worthy resume, which they don't but I'm not sure you are willing to say that shockingly.

Dayton was getting close, but would have needed to beat VCU and beat us to even have a punchers chance. Their best win was over Butler, an NIT team PC just blew the doors off. I still don't think they are in with those 2 wins (us and VCU) on their side. And relying upon a team to win the tourney to get the 2nd bid was never the conversation, bc that is a crap shoot and A10 in past never needed a bid stealer to get to multiple bids. This year they will. That's been the point.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

I just don't know why Ramster is still fighting it.
It's a "lucky" birth in which a choke is involved.
It's not like either team had major injuries that impacted their seasons and got healthy at the right time.
No other team had a resume worthy of tournament consideration.
Ramster's whole argument is centered around "parity" and the fact that #1 seeds in the A10 tournament tend to lose.
Ramster is technically right -- The last #1 seed to win was St. Louis in 2013.
Until URI last season, no #1 had even made the Finals since then (4 seasons).
At the end of the day, Ramster might very well be able to say "See, we didn't just get 1 bid, we got 2 bids. I was right all year. HAHA."
I just don't know, if it were me, I would not be celebrating that victory on the back of a bid theft.
Whoever wins should celebrate, but not the conference as a whole.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

bigappleram wrote: ↑5 years ago
ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
bigappleram wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster you finally willing to concede the A10 is a 1 bid league this year unless someone not named VCU wins the tourney?

IMO even VCU doesn't have a great resume, with their only resume wins over Temple and Texas (both bubble teams, the latter absurdly still on bubble) but they are either riding their brand name or a modicum of respect for their conference performance to an 8-9 seed in most brackets.
Nope.
I still think the A10 gets more than 1 team in the Tournament
I do not think that VCU will win the Tournament
What hurt the A10 also was that both Dayton and Davidson lost games that they should not have in the past weeks.
Davidson lost @ LaSalle and Dayton lost to URI on their home court

Otherwise Davidson would have ended up 15-3 and Dayton 14-4.

#1 Seed has not won the A10 Tournament in a long time - 6 or 7 years. There are a number of teams that can win the A10 Tournament even besides VCU, Davidson and Dayton
Many predicted a parity, lousy A10 with teams finishing with relatively poor records. Nobody say VCU finishing with only 2 losses. Even Dayton and Davidson finished with solid Won Lost records.

It's going to be a great tournament. URI could win the A10, so could St Bonaventure, Saint Louis or Duquesne in addition to VCU, Dayton or Davidson. It is wide open.

VCU has to be in the NCAA Tournament with a 16-2 record, win or lose in the A10 Tourney.

Picture30.png
Ramster, I said if VCU doesn't win the tourney...that means you conceding that no other A10 team has a tourney worthy resume, which they don't but I'm not sure you are willing to say that shockingly.

Dayton was getting close, but would have needed to beat VCU and beat us to even have a punchers chance. Their best win was over Butler, an NIT team PC just blew the doors off. I still don't think they are in with those 2 wins (us and VCU) on their side. And relying upon a team to win the tourney to get the 2nd bid was never the conversation, bc that is a crap shoot and A10 in past never needed a bid stealer to get to multiple bids. This year they will. That's been the point.

BAR,
In November, posters were calling the A10 a 1 or 2 bid league. Not one, but many. It has happened the last several years.
In November and December I said I would bet the house the A 10 will not be a 1 bid league - as I say every year and parade out the history showing how long it has been since the A10 got only 2 bids.

It’s calling the A10 a 1 or 2 bid league after 1-2 weeks of OOC play that drives me nuts. Posters were saying all the teams sucked and the conference would beat up on one another with nobody pulling away.

That didn’t happen.

VCU, Davidson, Dayton and even to an extent St Bonaventure pulled away.

That is the context.

For the record in November December I said the AAC would be much better and the Big East was losing steam. AAC is now ranked 6th, BE has fallen from a traditional #1 or #2 all the way to #5 this season. AAC will get 3 bids maybe 4. Memphis is on the move. I watched Penny Hardaway coach his teams in AAU and he was masterful with his players. Doesn’t surprise me at all his success at Memphis already. And he has James Wiseman coming in as the top player in 2019.

Posters can make fun of my saying the A10 will get more than 1 team in, but the discussion wouldn’t even exist if it weren’t for the doom and gloom November predictions.

BTW,
VCU is 27 today in AP right behind UCF at 26.
VCU is a lock even if they lose in the Semi Finals to URI, LaSalle or St Bonaventure imho.
Any number of teams can steal the auto bid this year. The conference champ has not won the auto bid in a long time.

steviep123 · Unread post by **steviep123** » 5 years ago

Thing is it happens all the time in many conferences. Teams that don’t have a shot of an at large upset everyone and win out bursting someone else’s bubble. Does anyone other than VCU in the A10 deserve an at large bid? No. But that’s not what the format/rules say.

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 5 years ago

Ramster...easy question for you...IF VCU wins the A10 tourney (and I'll give you your choice of who they beat in the final), how many teams from the A10 dance?

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago I just don't know why Ramster is still fighting it.
It's a "lucky" birth in which a choke is involved.
It's not like either team had major injuries that impacted their seasons and got healthy at the right time.
No other team had a resume worthy of tournament consideration.
Ramster's whole argument is centered around "parity" and the fact that #1 seeds in the A10 tournament tend to lose.
Ramster is technically right -- The last #1 seed to win was St. Louis in 2013.
Until URI last season, no #1 had even made the Finals since then (4 seasons).
At the end of the day, Ramster might very well be able to say "See, we didn't just get 1 bid, we got 2 bids. I was right all year. HAHA."
I just don't know, if it were me, I would not be celebrating that victory on the back of a bid theft.
Whoever wins should celebrate, but not the conference as a whole.

Again,
I can go back to November, and posters were saying the A10 was going to be a 1 or 2 bid league.
That is why this subject exists.
You can’t predict NCAA teams in November or December, or even now with much accuracy.
Who would have predicted the AAC with potentially 4 bids?

The A10 was never as bad as many predicted in November and December.

Your Big East should not be celebrating either. I predicted that too

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

RhodyRam86 wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster...easy question for you...IF VCU wins the A10 tourney (and I'll give you your choice of who they beat in the final), how many teams from the A10 dance?

1

Therefore all who said the A10 would be a 1 bid conference back in November will have been right. Genius’ they will have been proven to be.

I’d also say if Dayton did not lose to URI and Davidson did not lose to LaSalle in past week AND either one went to the Championship Game vs VCU and lost then I think they would both be in the Tournament, but those losses really hurt both teams. It’s all about IFs.

But I’ll say the A10 is considerably better than many credited it for in November. Many very good Freshmen emerged.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

RhodyRam86 wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster...easy question for you...IF VCU wins the A10 tourney (and I'll give you your choice of who they beat in the final), how many teams from the A10 dance?

And 86,
Here’s an easy question,
4 weeks ago if VCU lost the A10 Final would they get a bid?

We know the answer 4 weeks ago was no.

4 weeks ago looked possible that only the A10 Tournament Champ would go, now after this run VCU has put together they probably will go regardless.

So you could say the A10 strengthened its position in the past month.

I think VCU loses because I think Dayton, Davidson, URI, St Bonaventure, and others are capable of knocking VCU off. Heck VCU was favored to win the Women’s A10 tournament and they got beat handily by Fordham yesterday. Anything can happen in March!

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
Again,
I can go back to November, and posters were saying the A10 was going to be a 1 or 2 bid league.
That is why this subject exists.
You can’t predict NCAA teams in November or December, or even now with much accuracy.
Who would have predicted the AAC with potentially 4 bids?

The A10 was never as bad as many predicted in November and December.

Your Big East should not be celebrating either. I predicted that too

You are partially right, November is probably too early but you can tell the rough trajectory at that point. You can see how a conference is performing in key games, which is important because it's setting the conference up for the rest of the year. It's positively impacting the NET, key victories, etc. Maybe a bad loss becomes a good loss, or a Q3 win becomes a Q2 win. That matters. It's exactly why VCU had to go 16-2 in conference to be a 9 seed in the tournament. Had they gone 14-4, they are square on the bubble. But had the conference been stronger, maybe 14-4 is still good. Maybe Dayton and Davidson get more consideration. The poor play of the conference in November had a direct correlation on the remainder of the season, just like it would set up that way for any conference. The conference therefore needed extremely high-performance from schools like Dayton or Davidson to even have a chance.

You can point out the American, but on November 30th, they had 3 Top 50 KenPom teams. So maybe people didn't see those all as tournament teams at that time, but they clearly had teams flirting with the tournament at that time. Cincinnati and UCF didn't exactly come out of no where unless you only look at Top 25 rankings.

And I don't think the Big East is celebrating anything. It was not a good year. It should still be a 4 bid conference.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago
ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
Again,
I can go back to November, and posters were saying the A10 was going to be a 1 or 2 bid league.
That is why this subject exists.
You can’t predict NCAA teams in November or December, or even now with much accuracy.
Who would have predicted the AAC with potentially 4 bids?

The A10 was never as bad as many predicted in November and December.

Your Big East should not be celebrating either. I predicted that too
You are partially right, November is probably too early but you can tell the rough trajectory at that point. You can see how a conference is performing in key games, which is important because it's setting the conference up for the rest of the year. It's positively impacting the NET, key victories, etc. Maybe a bad loss becomes a good loss, or a Q3 win becomes a Q2 win. That matters. It's exactly why VCU had to go 16-2 in conference to be a 9 seed in the tournament. Had they gone 14-4, they are square on the bubble. But had the conference been stronger, maybe 14-4 is still good. Maybe Dayton and Davidson get more consideration. The poor play of the conference in November had a direct correlation on the remainder of the season, just like it would set up that way for any conference. The conference therefore needed extremely high-performance from schools like Dayton or Davidson to even have a chance.

You can point out the American, but on November 30th, they had 3 Top 50 KenPom teams. So maybe people didn't see those all as tournament teams at that time, but they clearly had teams flirting with the tournament at that time. Cincinnati and UCF didn't exactly come out of no where unless you only look at Top 25 rankings.

And I don't think the Big East is celebrating anything. It was not a good year. It should still be a 4 bid conference.

Agree with all you said except “November is probably too early” to predict the A10 will get only 1 or 2 bids. I’d still say it was definitely too early. Look at St Bonaventure now the 4th seed. They have two great freshmen who were just getting their feet wet in November. They could steal the A10 championship. Otherwise I agree with your points.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago I just don't know why Ramster is still fighting it.
It's a "lucky" birth in which a choke is involved.
It's not like either team had major injuries that impacted their seasons and got healthy at the right time.
No other team had a resume worthy of tournament consideration.
Ramster's whole argument is centered around "parity" and the fact that #1 seeds in the A10 tournament tend to lose.
Ramster is technically right -- The last #1 seed to win was St. Louis in 2013.
Until URI last season, no #1 had even made the Finals since then (4 seasons).
At the end of the day, Ramster might very well be able to say "See, we didn't just get 1 bid, we got 2 bids. I was right all year. HAHA."
I just don't know, if it were me, I would not be celebrating that victory on the back of a bid theft.
Whoever wins should celebrate, but not the conference as a whole.
Again,
I can go back to November, and posters were saying the A10 was going to be a 1 or 2 bid league.
That is why this subject exists.
You can’t predict NCAA teams in November or December, or even now with much accuracy.
Who would have predicted the AAC with potentially 4 bids?

The A10 was never as bad as many predicted in November and December.

Your Big East should not be celebrating either. I predicted that too

Now I'm really confused, you are bemoaning the people who were calling the A10 a 1-2 bid league in November, and now in March where it is 100% sure it is a 1 or 2 bid league at most (if someone other than VCU wins) you are crowing? What am I missing?

People were saying this because no one had built an OOC resume - last year we beat Seton Hall and PC, Bonnies beat Syracuse, Maryland and Buffalo. Those are 5 wins against NCAA teams. This year VCU has 2 wins against "maybe" NCAA qualifiers (Temple and Texas) and no one else including Dayton and Davidson has a win against an NCAA tourney team. I can't speak for everyone, but that is why I was saying it was a 1-2 bid league because the work had not been done in OOC that is needed for a tourney resume. Meanwhile your data point was 'people always say that and we always get multiple bids'.

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
RhodyRam86 wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster...easy question for you...IF VCU wins the A10 tourney (and I'll give you your choice of who they beat in the final), how many teams from the A10 dance?
And 86,
Here’s an easy question,
4 weeks ago if VCU lost the A10 Final would they get a bid?

We know the answer 4 weeks ago was no.

4 weeks ago looked possible that only the A10 Tournament Champ would go, now after this run VCU has put together they probably will go regardless.

So you could say the A10 strengthened its position in the past month.

I think VCU loses because I think Dayton, Davidson, URI, St Bonaventure, and others are capable of knocking VCU off. Heck VCU was favored to win the Women’s A10 tournament and they got beat handily by Fordham yesterday. Anything can happen in March!

Correct...4 weeks ago VCU was not in line for an auto bid. And I agree with RJ...It took VCU to run through the conference to put itself in position for an at-large. Without absolutely dominating and without Dayton and Davidson being so strong in conference, VCU does not get the at large. In other words, if the 2nd and 3rd place teams had 6 or 7 losses in conference, VCU is out.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago Agree with all you said except “November is probably too early” to predict the A10 will get only 1 or 2 bids. I’d still say it was definitely too early. Look at St Bonaventure now the 4th seed. They have two great freshmen who were just getting their feet wet in November. They could steal the A10 championship. Otherwise I agree with your points.

But again, it's about conference performance, not individual teams.
I agree with you that it's too early to look at most individual teams in November and project.
But you can look at the conference as a whole and typically project.
I'll give you an example of this:
Since 2014, 26 out of 27 Big East teams who have won 10 Big East conference games have made the NCAA Tournament (28 out of 29 including this year).
Why?
Because outside of 2014 and this season, the Big East performs extremely well during the OOC schedule.
The collective make it so there are always several strong victories available in conference, to the point that barring a very poor OOC record, all teams who hit that threshold are pretty much a lock.
If the conference lost almost all of their Q1 and Q2 games, the line is not 10 wins.
It might be 12 wins.
It might be 14 wins.
But it's all driven by what the conference does to set itself up in November and December.
Otherwise, you get a team like VCU who needs to go 16-2 to be a "lock," or teams like Davidson or Dayton who win 14 and 13 games respectively, but have no chance at an at-large bid.
The more wins you need from your top teams to make the tournament as an at-large during conference play, the less likely it is that it will happen.
Could anyone really expect 16 wins from all three of VCU, Dayton, and Davidson to be comfortably at-large?
And why did that become the mark?
November & December.
And many teams impact that, not just the top ones.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 5 years ago

Ramster, the problem here is that you've just been playing a game of semantics with the whole "1 bid league" stuff. When people are saying the A10 will be a 1 bid league they obviously mean at-large. You have been predicting this whole time it will not be a 1 bid league because you are banking on someone other than VCU winning the conf tourney so you can come back and tell everybody "told you so".

Of course nobody is out here predicting it'll be a 1 bid league because its impossible for anybody else to win the conf tourney. I recall even trying to come right out and ask you if you thought there would be more than 1 at large team from the A10 and you kind of said yes but also hedged to make it more confusing so you could try to be right either way once you realized the second at large isn't happening.

So I will ask again...do you think that the A10 will get more than one AT LARGE bid to the tournament? If your answer is no, then you are agreeing with everyone that has been saying this all along.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 5 years ago

To your point, Adam (and I agree with you totally), it’s really impossible to predict how many A10 teams will get in without predicting who will win the conference tournament. So even the question of how many at large bids the league will get is tied up with the same problem - for instance, last year if you said two you’d have been right, but only because neither URI or Bonnies won the tournament.

Whatever language game you want to play, the fact is VCU is the only at large team in the A10, and if they win the tournament then the league will technically get zero at large bids. The only way we get two teams in is if someone other than VCU wins, which seems pretty plausible.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 5 years ago

IF URI were to run the table and defeat say Dayton or Davison in the finals with VCU as an at large, thats maaaaaybe 3.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 5 years ago

I don’t think anyone in the A10 has the opportunity to play its way into an at large. In part because, in the scenario you just outlined, URI would knock off VCU and so neither Dayton nor Davidson would have an opportunity to pick up a win over a team in the field during the tournament.

Da_Process_Survivor · Unread post by **Da_Process_Survivor** » 5 years ago

Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑5 years ago IF URI were to run the table and defeat say Dayton or Davison in the finals with VCU as an at large, thats maaaaaybe 3.

eh, that might be a tough ask.

The only realistic at large path I see for Dayton or Davidson is to knock off VCU on their way to the Finals...which isnt possible given the bracket since neither of them hit VCU until the finals

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

If you look at Bracket Matrix, Davidson and Dayton aren't even in the "Next Four Out."
Not only would they have to jump at least 9 other teams to get into the field, but they'd have to pray for no additional bid-stealers (Mountain West, MAC, Southern, WCC), plus in the mentioned scenario of 3 teams, the A10 steals a 3rd bid.
The Pac-12 could do the same.
So now there is a minimum of at least 10 teams that need to be jumped.
It's hard to picture such a scenario given the lack of quality wins available, plus the fact that other teams will be afforded higher-quality opponents in their conference tournaments.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 5 years ago

TruePoint wrote: ↑5 years ago To your point, Adam (and I agree with you totally), it’s really impossible to predict how many A10 teams will get in without predicting who will win the conference tournament. So even the question of how many at large bids the league will get is tied up with the same problem - for instance, last year if you said two you’d have been right, but only because neither URI or Bonnies won the tournament.

Whatever language game you want to play, the fact is VCU is the only at large team in the A10, and if they win the tournament then the league will technically get zero at large bids. The only way we get two teams in is if someone other than VCU wins, which seems pretty plausible.

Right exactly, thats a good additional clarification. Even though VCU SHOULD get the only at-large, they could technically be an automatic qualifier instead and we'd actually have zero at-large bids!

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 5 years ago

Last 4 in bracket matrix
NC St
Temple
Ohio St
Clemson

First 4 out
Indiana
Belmont
Creighton
Alabama

Da_Process_Survivor · Unread post by **Da_Process_Survivor** » 5 years ago

reef wrote: ↑5 years ago Last 4 in bracket matrix
NC St
Temple
Ohio St
Clemson

First 4 out
Indiana
Belmont
Creighton
Alabama

Enough said on the NET will help mid majors bullshit

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 5 years ago

Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑5 years ago IF URI were to run the table and defeat say Dayton or Davison in the finals with VCU as an at large, thats maaaaaybe 3.

ahhhhh...no

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

There should be no debate on this...if VCU wins the conference tourney, the A10 is a juan bid league this season.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 5 years ago

Da_Process_Survivor wrote: ↑5 years ago
reef wrote: ↑5 years ago Last 4 in bracket matrix
NC St
Temple
Ohio St
Clemson

First 4 out
Indiana
Belmont
Creighton
Alabama
Enough said on the NET will help mid majors bullshit

I see Temple, Creighton and Belmont in the mix. All non P5 teams.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

NC St. Ohio St. Clemson and Alabama are frauds.

So is St. Johns and Texas will be lucky to make it.

Indiana earlier this season lost 12 out of 13......yet they might make it too.

I don't think most of these will make it, but the ones that do, will be subject to a lot of second guessing Sunday night.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 5 years ago

rambone 78 wrote: ↑5 years ago NC St. Ohio St. Clemson and Alabama are frauds.

So is St. Johns and Texas will be lucky to make it.

Indiana earlier this season lost 12 out of 13......yet they might make it too.

I don't think most of these will make it, but the ones that do, will be subject to a lot of second guessing Sunday night.

I guess. But how about a list of the teams you think should make it from the mid major ranks. NCAAB is so down this year, not sure there are teams more worthy.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

The soft bubble will continue in future years.....P5 conferences going to 20 game schedules.....mid majors in leagues like the A10 and BE.....

I agree there aren't a lot of deserving mids either this season...next year I see more with the A10 and BE being better.

The most interesting thing from Selection Sunday will be how much scheduling strength plays into who gets in and who doesn't....and will we see a reveal of the NET system criteria? And will there be any changes to that criteria going forward?

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

Hoping to see a few bid stealers this week.....as long as PC isn't one of them ha ha....

Wofford is trailing at the half....if they lose there's one. That's one mid major that's a lock at large if they need it.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

rambone 78 wrote: ↑5 years ago The soft bubble will continue in future years.....P5 conferences going to 20 game schedules.....mid majors in leagues like the A10 and BE.....

I agree there aren't a lot of deserving mids either this season...next year I see more with the A10 and BE being better.

The most interesting thing from Selection Sunday will be how much scheduling strength plays into who gets in and who doesn't....and will we see a reveal of the NET system criteria? And will there be any changes to that criteria going forward?

Don’t think for a minute that recruiters in the P5’s won’t show recruits how the mid majors got screwed by the new, improved, more fair - NET.
And those recruiters will show how mid majors who would have been selected in prior years did not go this year.
Demise of the Mid Major At large bids is the goal of the P5s. Even for the Big East and for the American AAC.
Just ask the HC’s at Arizona and LSU who came from the A10.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
rambone 78 wrote: ↑5 years ago The soft bubble will continue in future years.....P5 conferences going to 20 game schedules.....mid majors in leagues like the A10 and BE.....

I agree there aren't a lot of deserving mids either this season...next year I see more with the A10 and BE being better.

The most interesting thing from Selection Sunday will be how much scheduling strength plays into who gets in and who doesn't....and will we see a reveal of the NET system criteria? And will there be any changes to that criteria going forward?
Don’t think for a minute that recruiters in the P5’s won’t show recruits how the mid majors got screwed by the new, improved, more fair - NET.
And those recruiters will show how mid majors who would have been selected in prior years did not go this year.
Demise of the Mid Major At large bids is the goal of the P5s. Even for the Big East and for the American AAC.
Just ask the HC’s at Arizona and LSU who came from the A10.

"But Coach, didn't you come from the Atlantic 10"? Cmon man. The A10 is having a down year since we have 10 coaches with 4 years or less on the job.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

theblueram wrote: ↑5 years ago
ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
rambone 78 wrote: ↑5 years ago The soft bubble will continue in future years.....P5 conferences going to 20 game schedules.....mid majors in leagues like the A10 and BE.....

I agree there aren't a lot of deserving mids either this season...next year I see more with the A10 and BE being better.

The most interesting thing from Selection Sunday will be how much scheduling strength plays into who gets in and who doesn't....and will we see a reveal of the NET system criteria? And will there be any changes to that criteria going forward?
Don’t think for a minute that recruiters in the P5’s won’t show recruits how the mid majors got screwed by the new, improved, more fair - NET.
And those recruiters will show how mid majors who would have been selected in prior years did not go this year.
Demise of the Mid Major At large bids is the goal of the P5s. Even for the Big East and for the American AAC.
Just ask the HC’s at Arizona and LSU who came from the A10.
"But Coach, didn't you come from the Atlantic 10"? Cmon man. The A10 is having a down year since we have 10 coaches with 4 years or less on the job.

The A10 gets its coaches recruited by the P5’s more than any other conference.
New Coaches at VCU and Dayton - certainly didn’t slow down VCU - was not viewed preseason to be anywhere near 16-2 in conference.
Yes, losing Head Coaches hurts. Agreed.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

Mid Major Top 25 more interesting this time of year

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2019/3/ ... -ja-morant

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

Bracket site floating around in discussion on PC Board

http://rucklesbracket.blogspot.com/2019 ... 1.html?m=1

Da_Process_Survivor · Unread post by **Da_Process_Survivor** » 5 years ago

theblueram wrote: ↑5 years ago
rambone 78 wrote: ↑5 years ago NC St. Ohio St. Clemson and Alabama are frauds.

So is St. Johns and Texas will be lucky to make it.

Indiana earlier this season lost 12 out of 13......yet they might make it too.

I don't think most of these will make it, but the ones that do, will be subject to a lot of second guessing Sunday night.
I guess. But how about a list of the teams you think should make it from the mid major ranks. NCAAB is so down this year, not sure there are teams more worthy.

Utah State. 30 NET, 25-6
UNCG. 57 NET, 28-5
Belmont. 45 NET, 26-5
Forman. 41 NET, 25-7
St Mary's. 37 NET, 20-11 against 38th SOS

All better than the sub 500 conference frauds like OSU, Clemson, Texas or NC State

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 5 years ago

I think this year the mid majors will get the benefit of the doubt!

Not only are their numbers better, but they pass the eye test.

Belmont and Murray state
High level basketball

Liberty Lioscomb
High level basketball.

These teams are athletic and skilled.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

Picks Davidson to win
VCU among last 4 in

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnati ... ia-gonzaga

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 5 years ago

I do not understand how anyone can have Butler and Texas in the field. That is ridiculous. St Mary's is 1-7 vs tourney teams, anyone saying they should be near bubble is crazy too.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 5 years ago

Butler is 7-11 in the BE 16-15 overall, no friggen way.

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 5 years ago

Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑5 years ago Butler is 7-11 in the BE 16-15 overall, no friggen way.

.......that sounds like primo record for the NIT.....

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

Teams like Clemson, with a 1-9 record against Q1 should be out, period.

There are others that are on the bubble that only have 1 or 2 wins against tourney teams.

I say, out with them!

Butler is out, unless they magically run through the BE tournament.

Sorry Shaka, your Texas team is out. Looks like he will be out of a job too, really soon.

Both those teams will finish 16-16. Pul-lease.