A-10 Outlook for 2023-24

[ramster]

Barttorvik 2023-2024 A10 Rankings

1. Duquesne 59
2. Loyola Chicago 63
3. VCU 67
4. Dayton 68
5. St Bonaventure 83
6. George Mason 121
7. St Louis 129
8. St Joseph's 131
9. Fordham 143
10. Richmond 164
11. URI 185
12. LaSalle 196
13. UMASS 198
14. Davidson 201
15. George Washington 294

[Rhodymob05]

Based on those rankings, what A-hole is picking URI to finish behind GW? It’s getting annoying.

[Rhody15]

Based on those rankings, what A-hole is picking URI to finish behind GW? It’s getting annoying.

GW has arguably the best backcourt in the conference and an All League player, so there is significant talent there.

[PeterRamTime]

The amount of tourney level P6 teams the Best A10 teams have lost to the last 5ish years is staggering.

I don’t know the specific numbers but feels like the A10 lost like 8 out of every 10 tourney level OOC games.

More like 9 or 10 out of 10. Dayton beat Kansas in that tourney couple years ago. But trying to think of big wins in OOC by A10 front runners over last 5-6 years and can’t think of any.

Covid year really hurt the a10. Dayton going to the elite 8 or final 4 would have been huge. Plus, Richmond was strong and possibly rhody/st Louis had a chance to advance if they won a10. A10 was on the downswing but it feels like that year really hurt our league.

And all that NCAA revenue to the conference lost. Dayton was all but guaranteed to win its opening game. That plus Richmond would have given the league 3 units.

[adam914]

Bill Koch talked to some of the A10 coaches about NCAA bids. Coaches seem optimistic the conference can get close to being back to where it once was. Probably not a surprise that they'd say that, but we'll see how it plays out. I don't agree with some others that we are now a perennial 1 bid conference, but we do obviously have some work to do.

[bigappleram]

I think 2-3 bids is the new normal and that is perfectly ok.
Cannot trend to 1 bid. 2 at larges and tourney winner and hopefully the latter is 1 of the former to get 3. The days of 4+ are gone. But again, that’s ok. We just need to play at the top of the league.

[RIFan]

Agreed, I’m ok with 2-3 and maybe if all things align 4…but 1 is unacceptable and will have a long lasting negative impact on the league and member schools. Many people thought the A10 was a wanna be conference when we were getting 3-5 teams in, what are we now in their minds?

[ramster]

Here's my prediction when NET comes out in December for the A10. I hope I am totally wrong of course, but this is how I see it

0-50 No teams
51-100 3 teams
101-200 5 teams
200+ 7 teams

Now I hope I am wrong, but it seems this conference is getting played as a direct result of the portal and NIL. If this plays out again like last year, we have some serious problems. Who knows, maybe my pessimism is unwarranted and the conference just kills it OOC and heads into conference play with high NET numbers. Let's see what happens.

Looking at End of Season Last Year NET:
54-VCU
77-Dayton
97-St Louis
132-Fordham
137-Duquesne
139-George Mason
145-Davidson
160-Richmond
200-St Bonaventure
201-St Joseph's
203-UMASS
211-George Washington
223-LaSalle
263-URI
269-Loyola Chicago

Results at end of last season are just as you have projected for this coming December when the 1st NET comes out:
0-50 No teams
51-100 3 teams
101-200 5 teams
200+ 7 teams

Going with Ken Pom Preseason:
0-50 No teams
51-100 5 teams
101-200 7 teams
200+ 3 teams

Going with Barttovik Preseason:
0-50 No teams
51-100 5 teams
101-200 8 teams
200+ 2 teams

Hopefully we are in better shape this coming December with NET than how we finished the year last year with our Top 3 Teams having NET of 54, 77 and 97.

[Blue Man]

I don't have the time to do it again, but I feel like on one of these threads I did a breakdown of the accuracy of these polls, and I think outside of the top 50 it was luck of the draw, and outside of the top 100 it was a crapshoot.

Don't put stock in these, basketball in a couple of weeks!

[PeterRamTime]

I don't have the time to do it again, but I feel like on one of these threads I did a breakdown of the accuracy of these polls, and I think outside of the top 50 it was luck of the draw, and outside of the top 100 it was a crapshoot.

Don't put stock in these, basketball in a couple of weeks!

It's especially unreliable in the portal era.

There's just no way you can be confident with any predictions when basically every team reconstructs its entire roster every year.

We could finish 14th or we could finish 2nd. Who knows.

[Jdrums#3]

Bill Koch talked to some of the A10 coaches about NCAA bids. Coaches seem optimistic the conference can get close to being back to where it once was. Probably not a surprise that they'd say that, but we'll see how it plays out. I don't agree with some others that we are now a perennial 1 bid conference, but we do obviously have some work to do.

Adam, I agree. I don’t think we are a perennial one bid league yet. The A10 has enough solid programs to obtain 2 at-large bids and one or two other teams on the bubble but out.

That said, all the programs need to be committed to standards in scheduling, infrastructure, NIL, coaches pay, etc - as well as having a commish that somehow holds conf Presidents accountable to the standards.

Without doing that the conf is at significant risk of sinking to a perennial one bid conference and/or losing the best programs.

[reef]

Bill Koch talked to some of the A10 coaches about NCAA bids. Coaches seem optimistic the conference can get close to being back to where it once was. Probably not a surprise that they'd say that, but we'll see how it plays out. I don't agree with some others that we are now a perennial 1 bid conference, but we do obviously have some work to do.

Really good find Adam , I think it will be a big stain on the conf if we have back to back 1 bid seasons

I think this year 1 team may build an NCAA tournament resume and it may come down to whether that team wins or losses in the A10 Tournament for multiple bids , we shall see

[Jersey77]

Based on those rankings, what A-hole is picking URI to finish behind GW? It’s getting annoying.

GW has arguably the best backcourt in the conference and an All League player, so there is significant talent there.

Agree, GW is a team that can't be overlooked.
Bishop may be the best guard in the conference, last season averaged 21.6 pts/5 assists.
(G)Edwards was on the All-Rookie Team (10.5 pts/ 6.5 rebs)
They have size and depth in the frontcourt.
Also, Fr Trey Autry and R-Fr Darren Buchanan (Va. Tech) are 2 players that we had recruited pretty hard.

[reef]

Yeah I’d be surprised if GW is in the 14th to 15th range , Bishop is a baller

[Jersey77]

Huge early season loss for VCU, had foot surgery this past week.
He was a pre-season All-Conference selection.
They already had a thin roster, now only 9 scholarship players to start the season.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Huge early season loss for VCU, had foot surgery this past week.
He was a pre-season All-Conference selection.
They already had a thin roster, now only 9 scholarship players to start the season.

Yep, tough break. Only thing left to do is kick the arse of whatever remnant of a squad they have left extra hard when they come up on the sked.

[Jersey77]

SLU holding their breath on this, their frontcourt could be really thin this season.

[NYGFan_Section208]

SLU holding their breath on this, their frontcourt could be really thin this season.

Both to be denied

[PeterRamTime]

Here's an article about what mid-majors other than FAU will be the next FAU.

They have one A-10 member on its list! But which one?

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... ch-2023-24

Not VCU, SLU or Dayton! You guessed it...

Loyola Chicago!

Yep 10-21 Loyola Chicago somehow has the goods to shock the world again!

Here's ESPN's reasoning

"Upon joining the Atlantic 10 last year, Loyola lost 16 of its last 20 and posted the program's worst season in a decade. What reason is there to think this state of affairs could change in 2023-24? For one thing, last season's 10-21 (overall) group derived less benefit from accurate shooting than just about any team you'll ever see. Drew Valentine's guys made their 2s -- it just didn't matter because there weren't anywhere near enough attempts."

They made a high percentage of 2's last year...but they didn't shoot enough? So shooting the ball more will make them a final four contender?



I actually can't believe this article is real lololol

[Rhodymob05]

The Loyola love is confusing.

[Rhody15]

Here's an article about what mid-majors other than FAU will be the next FAU.

They have one A-10 member on its list! But which one?

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... ch-2023-24

Not VCU, SLU or Dayton! You guessed it...

Loyola Chicago!

Yep 10-21 Loyola Chicago somehow has the goods to shock the world again!

Here's ESPN's reasoning

"Upon joining the Atlantic 10 last year, Loyola lost 16 of its last 20 and posted the program's worst season in a decade. What reason is there to think this state of affairs could change in 2023-24? For one thing, last season's 10-21 (overall) group derived less benefit from accurate shooting than just about any team you'll ever see. Drew Valentine's guys made their 2s -- it just didn't matter because there weren't anywhere near enough attempts."

They made a high percentage of 2's last year...but they didn't shoot enough? So shooting the ball more will make them a final four contender?



I actually can't believe this article is real lololol

Shit I hope Loyola will be the next FAU. Or VCU. Or Fordham. Anyone at this point.

The A10 has been shit, it’d be tremendous for the conference to have a magical FAU type run.

[Jersey77]

Matt Norlander/CBS Sports picks Dayton #25 for 23-24.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... 24-season/

#25 Dayton
The Atlantic 10 is due to be better. Dayton will be the biggest reason why. The Flyers went 22-12 last year but didn't have the résumé to warrant NCAA tourney consideration. DaRon Holmes II is back and is among the best mid-major players in the nation. He'll be thriving alongside Malachi Smith, whose stats don't reflect his value to this Dayton squad. A pair of Kobe/Kobys are back: Kobe Elvis and Koby Brea should have UD's offense well-oiled and bumping up from 89th in points per possession to somewhere near the top 50.

Anthony Grant, a salute to you and your family. Grant has recently been open about the loss of his daughter to suicide, and of course something so heavy and tragic would be a factor when it came to leading a program. The players and staff rallied around him, and perhaps some of that supportive energy will be transferable to a big season for UD in 2023-24.

[Jersey77]

Didn't know if this was previously posted.

George Mason $30M Basketball Practice Facility Expansion
https://gmuhoops.substack.com/p/george- ... basketball

George Mason is getting ready to announce that they are finally adding on to the basketball program’s dedicated practice facility. A $30 million dollar investment is in place to upgrade and expand the facilities coming in Fall of 2024. It will add several new elements as well to help both the men’s and women’s teams compete in the Atlantic 10 and the college basketball recruiting wars. Some of the new features will include:

Additional Practice Court

State of the art Academic Center

Barbershop (pretty damn cool)

Men’s & Women’s Basketball Locker Rooms

Players Lounge

Coaches Offices

Weight Room and Athletic Training Room

Rest and Recovery rooms with Sleep Pods

[Jdrums#3]

Didn't know if this was previously posted.

George Mason $30M Basketball Practice Facility Expansion
https://gmuhoops.substack.com/p/george- ... basketball

George Mason is getting ready to announce that they are finally adding on to the basketball program’s dedicated practice facility. A $30 million dollar investment is in place to upgrade and expand the facilities coming in Fall of 2024. It will add several new elements as well to help both the men’s and women’s teams compete in the Atlantic 10 and the college basketball recruiting wars. Some of the new features will include:

Additional Practice Court

State of the art Academic Center

Barbershop (pretty damn cool)

Men’s & Women’s Basketball Locker Rooms

Players Lounge

Coaches Offices

Weight Room and Athletic Training Room

Rest and Recovery rooms with Sleep Pods

I like the idea of practice facilities but, some of the options added, seems to me, attempt to separate the athletes from the overall student population and I think that is unfortunate.

I was able to get to know a few basketball players as well as other athletes during my years at Rhody because they weren’t insulated - and I am glad I had that opportunity.

[theblueram]

Didn't know if this was previously posted.

George Mason $30M Basketball Practice Facility Expansion
https://gmuhoops.substack.com/p/george- ... basketball

George Mason is getting ready to announce that they are finally adding on to the basketball program’s dedicated practice facility. A $30 million dollar investment is in place to upgrade and expand the facilities coming in Fall of 2024. It will add several new elements as well to help both the men’s and women’s teams compete in the Atlantic 10 and the college basketball recruiting wars. Some of the new features will include:

Additional Practice Court

State of the art Academic Center

Barbershop (pretty damn cool)

Men’s & Women’s Basketball Locker Rooms

Players Lounge

Coaches Offices

Weight Room and Athletic Training Room

Rest and Recovery rooms with Sleep Pods

So looks like GMU is stepping up. So VCU, URI, SLU, Dayton and GMU need to break apart from the A10 and add maybe 5 teams and form a new Conference. (But you only need 8 teams to be eligible for the NCAAT) Add Richmond and Davidson. That's 7 teams.

[RhowdyRam02]

The Loyola love is confusing.

Most pundits would rather double down than admit they were wrong

[Jersey77]

Borzello has Josh Cohen (UMAss) on the list but missing DaRon Holmes, the pre-season A10 POY.
Really Jeff?

[ramster]

From Jon Rothstein.......

Source: Fordham's Japhet Medor has received a waiver from the NCAA and is immediately eligible for the 2023-24 season.
Medor is NOT a two-time transfer, but needed to pass certain academic requirements to be eligible.
Transfer from UTSA who averaged 13.7 PPG last season.

Should be a starter for Fordham

[ramster]

Borzello has Josh Cohen (UMAss) on the list but missing DaRon Holmes, the pre-season A10 POY.
Really Jeff?

This is not Jeff Borzello's list. He is just forwarding it.


https://www.hoophall.com/news/naismith- ... atch-list/

[Jersey77]

Borzello has Josh Cohen (UMAss) on the list but missing DaRon Holmes, the pre-season A10 POY.
Really Jeff?

This is not Jeff Borzello's list. He is just forwarding it.


https://www.hoophall.com/news/naismith- ... atch-list/

Yeah, still question it though.

[ramster]

Borzello has Josh Cohen (UMAss) on the list but missing DaRon Holmes, the pre-season A10 POY.
Really Jeff?

This is not Jeff Borzello's list. He is just forwarding it.


https://www.hoophall.com/news/naismith- ... atch-list/

Yeah, still question it though.

In checking on Holmes he has been listed as a Forward all 3 years on Dayton's Roster. So maybe he would you be listed on a list of forwards list.

Usually they have lists like this for point guards, shooting guards, etc.

[ramster]

Borzello has Josh Cohen (UMAss) on the list but missing DaRon Holmes, the pre-season A10 POY.
Really Jeff?

This is not Jeff Borzello's list. He is just forwarding it.


https://www.hoophall.com/news/naismith- ... atch-list/

Yeah, still question it though.

Here is Holmes listed on the Karl Malone Power Forward watch list:



Arizona forward Keshad Johnson was one of 20 players named to the watch list for the Karl Malone Award given to the top power forward in college basketball.

The Naismith Award has been announcing the watch lists for all five of its positional awards this week, with UA's Caleb Love also put on the Jerry West Award (shooting guard) list.

However, UA's Kylan Boswell was not among the 20 players on the Bob Cousy (point guard) list nor was senior Pelle Larsson listed on the Julius Erving (small forward) list. Wildcats center Oumar Ballo appears likely to be named to the watch list for centers on Friday based on his accomplishments last season.
Johnson, a graduate transfer from San Diego State, is scheduled to face four other players on the Malone list this season: Duke's Kyle Filipowski, Alabama's Grant Nelson, Colorado's Tristan da Silva, and UCLA's Adem Bona.

Others named to the Karl Malone watch list Thursday included:

Enrique Freeman, Akron
Coleman Hawkins, Illinois
Oso Ighodaro, Marquette
Julian Reese, Maryland
Trevon Brazile, Arkansas
Norchad Omier, Miami (Fla.)
Fousseyni Traore, BYU
Tolu Smith, Mississippi State
Jevon Porter, Pepperdine
DaRon Holmes II, Dayton
Bryce Hopkins, Providence
Graham Ike, Gonzaga
Alex Karaban, UConn
J’Wan Roberts, Houston
Drew Pember, UNC Asheville

https://tucson.com/sports/college/baske ... c7fb0.html

[Jersey77]

This is not Jeff Borzello's list. He is just forwarding it.


https://www.hoophall.com/news/naismith- ... atch-list/

Yeah, still question it though.

In checking on Holmes he has been listed as a Forward all 3 years on Dayton's Roster. So maybe he would you be listed on a list of forwards list.

Usually they have lists like this for point guards, shooting guards, etc.

He is on the list posted above. Even they on the roster he is listed as a forward, he still plays the 5 on the floor.
Not uncommon on many rosters, even we list both Bilau and Brown as forwards,
Foumena is the only center listed.
None of this really matters though.

[ramster]

Yeah, still question it though.

In checking on Holmes he has been listed as a Forward all 3 years on Dayton's Roster. So maybe he would you be listed on a list of forwards list.

Usually they have lists like this for point guards, shooting guards, etc.

He is on the list posted above. Even they on the roster he is listed as a forward, he still plays the 5 on the floor.
Not uncommon on many rosters, even we list both Bilau and Brown as forwards,
Foumena is the only center listed.
None of this really matters though.

It doesn't matter. Holmes is on a list. How they get on the list and who makes the decision who the Centers, Power Forwards, Small Forwards, Shooting Guards and Point Guards are I don't know. When I watched Dayton in the A10 Tournament last year when they played St Joseph's, Fordham and then VCU Holmes and Toumani Camara both played similarly as big men neither playing the pure center position. They presented as strong a Big Man twosome as any team in the A10. Versus St Joseph's Camara was an absolute beast with 18 rebounds, 17 points with 3-4 3Ps, 4 steals and Holmes had 9 rebounds, 17 points and 4 blocks. Next game vs Fordham Camara 28 points on an amazing 12-13 FGs and 7 rebounds. Holmes 20 points, 6 rebounds and 3 blocks. In the Championship Camara picked up fouls and fouled out playing only 20 total minutes. Credit to VCU and the Coaching Staff led by Mike Rhodes for taking Camara out of his game at such a crucial time. Rhodes Coached brilliantly in the A10 Tournament games from my perspective.

Camara played very well at NBA Portsmouth and is 1st big man off the bench for Portland Trailblazers so far. He is big shoes to fill for somebody at Dayton.

[RhowdyRam02]

Borzello has Josh Cohen (UMAss) on the list but missing DaRon Holmes, the pre-season A10 POY.
Really Jeff?

This is not Jeff Borzello's list. He is just forwarding it.


https://www.hoophall.com/news/naismith- ... atch-list/

Yeah, still question it though.

It's fair to question it, but you're literally questioning the wrong person/entity

[PeterRamTime]

St Joe's on espn+ right now

[ramster]

Summary of Preseason Projections

• URI is projected highest at #11 by Barttorvik, Almanac and Lindy's

• URI is #12 by Ken Pom

• URI is predicted #14 by A10 Coaches, Blue Ribbon and Dayton Writer Dave Jablonski

IMG_0575.png

[Jersey77]

Summary of Preseason Projections

• URI is projected highest at #11 by Barttorvik, Almanac and Lindy's

• URI is #12 by Ken Pom

• URI is predicted #14 by A10 Coaches, Blue Ribbon and Dayton Writer Dave Jablonski

IMG_0575.png

Also; BustingBrackets, A10Talk, and Jon Rothstein all pick URI to finish #15.

[ramster]

Summary of Preseason Projections

• URI is projected highest at #11 by Barttorvik, Almanac and Lindy's

• URI is #12 by Ken Pom

• URI is predicted #14 by A10 Coaches, Blue Ribbon and Dayton Writer Dave Jablonski

IMG_0575.png

Also; BustingBrackets, A10Talk, and Jon Rothstein all pick URI to finish #15.

I'll add them. Thanks. Any
More that you know of?

[NYGFan_Section208]

Summary of Preseason Projections

• URI is projected highest at #11 by Barttorvik, Almanac and Lindy's

• URI is #12 by Ken Pom

• URI is predicted #14 by A10 Coaches, Blue Ribbon and Dayton Writer Dave Jablonski

IMG_0575.png

Also; BustingBrackets, A10Talk, and Jon Rothstein all pick URI to finish #15.

So....is what they're saying here..."expectations are low"? 'cause it kinda seems that way

[ramster]

IMG_0629.png

Summary of 10 Preseason A10 Polls

[Jersey77]

IMG_0629.png



Summary of 10 Preseason A10 Polls

Not getting much respect by the coaches and media, highest pick #11.
After finishing 14th last season and a new roster, not surprising.
As expected Dayton getting lots of respect.

[ramster]

IMG_0629.png



Summary of 10 Preseason A10 Polls

Not getting much respect by the coaches and media, highest pick #11.
After finishing 14th last season and a new roster, not surprising.
As expected Dayton getting lots of respect.

Or maybe

Dayton is just the tallest midget in the room

[Jersey77]

IMG_0629.png



Summary of 10 Preseason A10 Polls

Not getting much respect by the coaches and media, highest pick #11.
After finishing 14th last season and a new roster, not surprising.
As expected Dayton getting lots of respect.

Or maybe

Dayton is just the tallest midget in the room

I don't think the Bonnies are far behind, wouldn't even be surprised if they finish 1st and win it.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Not getting much respect by the coaches and media, highest pick #11.
After finishing 14th last season and a new roster, not surprising.
As expected Dayton getting lots of respect.

Or maybe

Dayton is just the tallest midget in the room

I don't think the Bonnies are far behind, wouldn't even be surprised if they finish 1st and win it.

Bigger midgets?

[Jersey77]

Or maybe

Dayton is just the tallest midget in the room

I don't think the Bonnies are far behind, wouldn't even be surprised if they finish 1st and win it.

Bigger midgets?

Is that like jumbo shrimp?

[ramster]

Or maybe

Dayton is just the tallest midget in the room

I don't think the Bonnies are far behind, wouldn't even be surprised if they finish 1st and win it.

Bigger midgets?

That would be no small feat.

[KevanBoyles]

I like playing the underdog role. Easier to sneak up on teams. We also get the benefit of the easier league schedule. Which is fine this year from a program building perspective but not when we're a more serious at-large threat.

[ramster]

Summary of 10 Preseason Polls

2023-2024 Shows a A10 Conference with some wide prediction variation for a number of teams

• Loyola Ranges from a high of 2nd (Barttkorvik) to a low of 12th (Rothstein AND A10Talk)

• Fordham Ranges from a high of 1st (A10Talk) to a low of 10th (KenPom)

• St Louis Ranges from a high of 6th (A10 Coaches and BlueRibbon) to a low of 12th (Lindy"s)

• GMU Ranges from a high of 6th (Barttorvik) to a low of 14th (Lindy"s)

• George Washington Ranges from a high of 6th (Jablonski) to a low of 15th (KenPom and Barttorvik)

• URI is 15th with a 13.2 Average Ranking. Range of High 11th Barttorvik, Almanac and Linduy's) to Low 15th (Rothstein, Bustin Brackets and A10Talk)

The Green Shaded Rankings 1,2,3,4 represent Teams receiving the Double Bye in the A10 Tournament

Don't recall the A10 ever having such ranking variation and volatility to the Rankings and so much roster turnover.

IMG_0632.png

[NYGFan_Section208]

I don't think the Bonnies are far behind, wouldn't even be surprised if they finish 1st and win it.

Bigger midgets?

That would be no small feat.

Hey, big midgets, big feet(s)...