2/22 | Davidson | 9:00PM (ESPN2)

[reef]

Yeah I think now it’s about 50 % it’s either a 1 bid or 2 bid season

If VCU wins the a10 tournament easily could be a 1 bid league

[ramster]

I thought it was 95% one bid league??

[ramster]

But wait,
I thought it was a forgone conclusion that the A10 was a 1 bid league this year?
I said all year long, even back in November when the 1 bid talk was prevalent, that there is no way the A10 gets only 1 bid

Also, common belief was that the A10 was a parity conference, and teams would beat up on one another. That didn’t happen either, at least not for VCU, Davidson and Dayton

And don’t sleep on St Bonaventure come A10 Tourney time. Their 2 outstanding freshmen are steadily improving every game.

Still could be a 3 team bid A10 even if I’m the only one who believes that is possible

I am with you - 2 bid league with a chance for 3

You can’t be serious? That makes no sense in 3 bids. Who are these great teams that deserve bods? The only opportunity for two is if VCU doesn’t win the A-10 tourney and if they for some reason lose a couple more regular season games and don’t do win the tourney it could easily be one. They would make it as of now, but hardly have a great resume. Saying theee deserves to make it just sounds ridiculous. What is next URI can make the tourney with a couple more wins and a run to the title game. The league is awful this year. It is very easy to see this.

Everyone has said it’s a one bid league.
We will soon see.
I’ll eat my computer if the A10 gets 1 bid

[rambone 78]

VCU is making a case for an at large...but Davidson likely has to win the A10 tourney to get in.

So if VCU runs the table it's a one bid league...otherwise it could be 2, but VCU had better at least get to the final before losing.

I think the odds, like reef said, are 50-50....at best.

Being the 13th rated conference does not help matters.

[ramster]

Keep in mind teams like Davidson and Dayton did absolutely nothing in their non conference games and Davidson has just the victory over VCU at home. St. Bonaventure’s team last year was better than any team this year including VCU and they were one of the last four in

Very soft bubble this year. If Davidson and VCU keep up pace and get to the semis they will likely be in. Someone else wins the tourney = 3 teams.

If Davidson can run off 6 straight wins, I think they might have a chance at an at-large.
The bubble is Charmin soft this year, and Davidson is still on that bubble.
Their challenge is just lack of opportunity -- Davidson won't wow people by beating up on LaSalle, Fordham, Richmond, and St. Bonaventure.

So what is it RJ, you’ve been down on the A10 from week 1, is it 1 bid or 2? Certainly you won’t say 3?

I’ll continue to say in no possible way is the A10 a 1 bid league this year.

[rambone 78]

ramster, if VCU stumbles it is very likely a 1 bid league.

VCU simply doesn't have any Q1 opportunities.

Of course, reading bubble watch, there are several P5's that are likely to get in with only 1 or 2 Q1 wins...and losing league records.

Oklahoma is 5-9 and likely to get in AGAIN.....it's like they only count Q1 wins for some of these schools, and forget about all of the losses.

[ramster]

I don’t see VCU stumbling, nor Davidson and Dayton is tough. The 1 bid predictors also said early in the year the A10 had no good teams and they would all beat up on one another. That has not been the case

[rambone 78]

The top 3 have separated themselves yes. But except for VCU, not enough.

Dayton will be an NIT team unless they win the whole shebang in NY. Same for Davidson.

[luke]

Not necessarily. If dayton wins out and wins twice in the tournament, I think they can get in as an at large.

[ramster]

Still 4 games to go. Think Davidson and Dayton are going into these last two weeks backing off? Just the opposite. They can sense the NCAA bid within their grasp.
VCU is 12-2 with SLU, @ Richmond, @ GMU, St Joseph’s - could end up 16-2
Davidson 11-3 with @LaSalle, Fordham, St Bonaventure, @ Richmond - could end up 15-3
Dayton 10-4 with @ UMASS, URI, LaSalle, @ Duquesne - could end up 14-4

Those 3 teams sweeping their last 4 opponents is very possible. I don’t see any of the 3 choking away an opportunity within their grasp like this.

If Dayton beats Davidson in the A10 Championship then do 3 dance?

And don’t sleep on the 2 Freshmen that are improving with every game for St Bonaventure. Those two guys are special.
And never know with St Louis or Duquesne.

Lot of season left to play except for some teams

[rambone 78]

Dayton might deserve to be on the bubble the way they've been playing....but I doubt they will even be considered if the above happens.

Look at last season...the A10 was better, and the Bonnies almost didn't get in when we lost in the final.

The committee will not favor us...bottom line.

ramster, someone else said this....who did they beat? If Dayton and Davidson win their last 4 games against 200+ NET teams?

ZZZZZZZZZZ......and will their ratings even DROP beating up on stiffs?

[ramster]

Just keep saying it’s only a 1 bid league this year

We will know soon enough

The Big East will be no where near the 6-7 bid league they always brag about being so maybe we can grab a bid or two from them.

Don’t sleep on the AAC - that conference could get 4 teams in

[rambone 78]

The "experts" are saying that Butler and Seton Hall have work to do?

Neither of those teams should even be in the conversation...but because of the NET and being in the magical but overrated BE, they are.

And if they do make it, and the AAC gets 4 in...then kiss Davidosn's and Dayton's chances goodbye...even more so.

[RhodyRam86]

I am with you - 2 bid league with a chance for 3

You can’t be serious? That makes no sense in 3 bids. Who are these great teams that deserve bods? The only opportunity for two is if VCU doesn’t win the A-10 tourney and if they for some reason lose a couple more regular season games and don’t do win the tourney it could easily be one. They would make it as of now, but hardly have a great resume. Saying theee deserves to make it just sounds ridiculous. What is next URI can make the tourney with a couple more wins and a run to the title game. The league is awful this year. It is very easy to see this.

Everyone has said it’s a one bid league.
We will soon see.
I’ll eat my computer if the A10 gets 1 bid

FWIW...Lunardi has VCU as an 11 and no other A10 team in the first 8 out. Jerry Palm has VCU as a 4 and no other A10 team in the first 4 out. VCU's net is 35. Davidson 67 and Dayton 69. Neither Davidson or Dayton will play another game vs. a team with a current NET of 140 or better. VCU is the only team in the conference with a chance at an at large. NO WAY the conference gets 2 at larges.

[rambone 78]

The two D's screwed themselves with poor OOC performance.

Then the conference suck factor kicked in and finished them off.

Both have overachieved in conference but it's just not good enough.

[RhodyRam86]

I don’t see VCU stumbling, nor Davidson and Dayton is tough. The 1 bid predictors also said early in the year the A10 had no good teams and they would all beat up on one another. That has not been the case

The conference has very few quality wins. Dayton's best is against Butler who is probably out. Davidson beat nobody. VCU beat Temple and Texas. Not sure anyone else has a quality win. With few quality wins the A10 is ranked 13th. Davidson and Dayton feasting on a weak conference does not merit their inclusion in the tournament without an automatic qualifier. It doesn't take rocket surgery to figure that out.

[rambone 78]

Even if Dayton and Davidson win out and meet in the A10 tourney final, the loser gets hello NIT.....VCU if they lose to either in the semis gets an at large as long as they don't screwup in conference before then.

The way this year has gone, the A10 should be happy with 2 bids.

Next year 3? I doubt we'll be one of them sad to say.

VCU, Dayton, and Davidson will all be better.....and the Bonnies and others will too.

We will have to be a LOT better to be in that mix.

[rjsuperfly66]

Very soft bubble this year. If Davidson and VCU keep up pace and get to the semis they will likely be in. Someone else wins the tourney = 3 teams.

If Davidson can run off 6 straight wins, I think they might have a chance at an at-large.
The bubble is Charmin soft this year, and Davidson is still on that bubble.
Their challenge is just lack of opportunity -- Davidson won't wow people by beating up on LaSalle, Fordham, Richmond, and St. Bonaventure.

So what is it RJ, you’ve been down on the A10 from week 1, is it 1 bid or 2? Certainly you won’t say 3?

I’ll continue to say in no possible way is the A10 a 1 bid league this year.

All I'm saying is that there is a path for Davidson to perhaps sneak in if they win out (including a win vs Dayton) and lose to VCU in the championship.
Even then I think it will still be completely reliant on what other teams around them do (their Q1/Q2 resume will be lacking), but if a few teams go ice cold and Davidson were to finish with a 26-8 record, I think they would at least be in the conversation for a play-in game.
Of course they could just as well win the whole damn thing and pretty much lock in 2.
If I'm weighing the odds, these would be my odds:
1 bid - 90%
2 bids - 10%
3 bids - 0%
That 10% also came from some math, not a random number.

[rhodyrudder]

If I'm weighing the odds, these would be my odds:
1 bid - 90%
2 bids - 10%
3 bids - 0%
That 10% also came from some math, not a random number.

100-90?

[rjsuperfly66]

If I'm weighing the odds, these would be my odds:
1 bid - 90%
2 bids - 10%
3 bids - 0%
That 10% also came from some math, not a random number.

100-90?

If it were that simple it could have saved me some time in my life:

I figure there are a few different ways for Davidson to have a legit chance at an at-large bid:

1) Win out their regular season, win against 7 seed, beat Dayton (assumed 2-3 matchup), lose to VCU.
Assuming all matchups, Davidson would have an 8.2% chance of winning those 6 games.

2) However, what if they don't play Dayton in a 2-3, or what if they lose a regular season game? Then it only matters if they win the A10T. If Davidson does not play Dayton, they would have somewhere around an 11.7% chance of winning the A10 Tournament (assuming they played VCU). If Davidson played Dayton but not VCU, they would have about a 16.2% chance of winning the A10T. If Davidson did play Dayton and VCU, they would have roughly an 8.1% chance of winning the A10T. Assuming it's possible for either of those three scenarios to happen equally, Davidson would hae a 12% chance of winning the A10T.

Combine both 1 and 2, I would say that Davidson has a 10% chance of getting a 2nd bid.

[hrstrat57]

Davidson will win A10 tournament

[steviep123]

Davidson will win A10 tournament

I'm torn about this...while I don't really dislike Davidson, it would be nice payback from last year to see them lose in the final...but if they are playing VCU it would be good to see them win if it guarantees 2 A10 teams.

I'm still pissed at the 2 games vs. Davidson we should have won (as well as the game at SBU).