theblueram wrote: ↑5 years ago
Is next year a rebuild year?
That is actually an interesting question.
I did some research on KenPom.com, reviewing Top 50 KenPom teams from this year and where they were rated last year (essentially measuring their improvements).
37 of the 50 teams all posted improvements from last year, but to fairly measure it, I'd have to look at URI at their 125 and look for teams that improved at least 75 spots to become a Top 50 team.
As of right now, there are 5 such teams:
1. San Francisco - 158 last year, 43 this year
2. Utah St. - 139 last year, 42 this year
3. Wofford - 163 last year, 38 this year
4. Lipscomb - 167 last year, 36 this year
5. Iowa St. - 103 last year, 12 this year
So it's a small pool, so let's take it one step further.
What was the average growth from a Top 50 team?
Well to start off, I removed teams ranked inside the top 10 (but not #10).
Why?
The included teams like Virginia, Duke, Michigan St, Gonzaga, Tennesee, Michigan, UNC, and Kentucky, they were teams that technically "improved," but went from 2 to 1, or 3 to 2, and I did not find that the right sample for what I was looking for. I did choose to leave in #10 Wisconsin, who did see a substantial jump.
So we have the five listed above that are extreme jumps and then we have the five I'm going to list that were minimal bumps:
1) Baylor - 34 to 33
2) Syracuse - 41 to 39
3) Texas - 36 to 32
4) Nevada - 25 to 17
5) Auburn - 23 to 15
I will elect to remove the above listed 10 schools and call them outliers.
So of the remaining 19 teams who improved from last season, what was their average growth?
The average team grew 35.5 (so 36 spots) from 2017-2018 to 2018-2019.
If URI improved like an average team in 2019-2020, that would place them with a KenPom ranking of 89.
If URI improved like the 9 "above" average teams, they would improve at a rate of roughly 51.3 (so 51 spots), which would give them a KenPom ranking of 74, which would be competing in the bubble range but probably as an NIT team.
The other option is an easy one -- URI improves through the end of the year and finishes with a KenPom of 100 versus 125.
It would mean if they improved like an average team, they finish with a ranking of 64, and if they improve like an above average team, they finish with a KenPom of 49, and both are solidly in the conversation for a tournament bid.
While KenPom is not an official tournament metric, only one team with a KenPom over 68 has made the tournament in the last 5 seasons as an at-large team so since it is easily accessible data, I don't mind using it for the purposes of this sample.
And of course the option exists where they don't improve next year, but does anyone really believe in that?
None of this math proves it can't happen, just that it would be a substantial change given where they are on 2/2/19.
I also don't think any of this necessarily indicates a "rebuilding" season, but since the goal is "NCAA or bust," that is where my head went.