2017-18 Bracketology
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- Tyson Wheeler
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
If you are going to predict Rhody’s seeding you have to project their win/loss in the A10 Tournament. The 26-3 record is incomplete. Do they win the tournament? Do they make it to the finals and lose? Do they lose in the semis? How they perform in the A10 tournament will have an impact.
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Actually I meant 29-3, running the table.Rhody83 wrote:If you are going to predict Rhody’s seeding you have to project their win/loss in the A10 Tournament. The 26-3 record is incomplete. Do they win the tournament? Do they make it to the finals and lose? Do they lose in the semis? How they perform in the A10 tournament will have an impact.
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- Carlton Owens
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
This is a copy of a bracket I made using this morning's bracket matrix update ... I go by total brackets, seed lists for tiebreakers, until auto bids which I just use seeding.
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- Sly Williams
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Interesting matchups for our local teams. Nevada would be tough for the Fryahs. I dread Oklahoma and Trae Young.
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
We would beat Oklahoma....just put Stan on him.....or Jeff.
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- Ernie Calverley
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Trae Young into Purdue...I could think of better matchups!
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- Art Stephenson
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
The rotation of Stan, Jeff, and JT would have Trae commit 7+ TOsRhody74 wrote:Interesting matchups for our local teams. Nevada would be tough for the Fryahs. I dread Oklahoma and Trae Young.
They would wear him down and he would probably jack up 40 shots Carmelo style while shoot 20% from the floor
We would match up very well with Oklahoma
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- Sly Williams
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
My downstairs neighbors went to OU. It would be fun to watch that one with them. Or not.wpbrown8267 wrote:The rotation of Stan, Jeff, and JT would have Trae commit 7+ TOsRhody74 wrote:Interesting matchups for our local teams. Nevada would be tough for the Fryahs. I dread Oklahoma and Trae Young.
They would wear him down and he would probably jack up 40 shots Carmelo style while shoot 20% from the floor
We would match up very well with Oklahoma
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
OU might be the team I am least afraid of in the whole field. I love watching Young and he is super talented. But if your team's profile is that you are over-reliant on one player, and that one player is a guard, and that guard is not overly physical, turnover prone and highly dependent on jacking up threes, I would really like our chances in that game.
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- Sly Williams
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
This. Young also disappears (or at least goes cold) when he gets frustrated. I'm pretty confident URI's guard D can accomplish that.TruePoint wrote:OU might be the team I am least afraid of in the whole field. I love watching Young and he is super talented. But if your team's profile is that you are over-reliant on one player, and that one player is a guard, and that guard is not overly physical, turnover prone and highly dependent on jacking up threes, I would really like our chances in that game.
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- Tom Garrick
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
But on the flip side, I have no doubt our backcourt would all have 3-4 fouls with 10-15 minutes left in the game. Although a freshman Young will definitely get the Kobe Bryant treatment from the refs during the tournament especially against a non-P5 school.
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- Tyson Wheeler
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
ESPN had URI as "Should be in", not sure I've ever seen URI in that category.
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- Cuttino Mobley
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... final-four
So weird actually being in these articles...
Why your team won't make the Final Four
So weird actually being in these articles...
Why your team won't make the Final Four
Rhode Island Rams
Danny Hurley has a great story and sleeper at Rhode Island, a team that hasn't lost since Dec. 6. And the Rams force turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents' possessions. But they had a 13-point lead with six minutes to play against UMass and escaped with a two-point win last week. The Rams were down by a point near the six-minute mark at Saint Louis last month. Those are non-tournament teams. It's not that we should overanalyze those struggles because they have an abundance of lopsided victories too, but we should ask a question: Will the Rams play to their potential or play down to their competition in March?
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- Sly Williams
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
I’m not suggesting we’re a FF team (though anything’s possible) but playing down won’t be the reason if they don’t.rhodysurf wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... final-four
So weird actually being in these articles...
Why your team won't make the Final Four
Rhode Island Rams
Danny Hurley has a great story and sleeper at Rhode Island, a team that hasn't lost since Dec. 6. And the Rams force turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents' possessions. But they had a 13-point lead with six minutes to play against UMass and escaped with a two-point win last week. The Rams were down by a point near the six-minute mark at Saint Louis last month. Those are non-tournament teams. It's not that we should overanalyze those struggles because they have an abundance of lopsided victories too, but we should ask a question: Will the Rams play to their potential or play down to their competition in March?
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- ARD
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
I am going with celebrate that we are here, and that we are often mentioned before UK and UNC. In my world of pharmacy friends, this is a really really big deal!rhodysurf wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... final-four
So weird actually being in these articles...
Why your team won't make the Final Four
Rhode Island Rams
Danny Hurley has a great story and sleeper at Rhode Island, a team that hasn't lost since Dec. 6. And the Rams force turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents' possessions. But they had a 13-point lead with six minutes to play against UMass and escaped with a two-point win last week. The Rams were down by a point near the six-minute mark at Saint Louis last month. Those are non-tournament teams. It's not that we should overanalyze those struggles because they have an abundance of lopsided victories too, but we should ask a question: Will the Rams play to their potential or play down to their competition in March?
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Bring on the Sooners I am certain DH would have a good game plan for them
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
This is fantastic...to be discussed amongst the top programs in the nation...this is why I think some may forego the A1o tourney and save their invesent $ for the NCAAT...anyone else get that sense?
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- Sly Williams
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
I booked the trip to DC long ago.....we have two nieces living in the DMV and one just had a baby.....so we are going anyway....but any other year I would skip the A10 and just wait to selection Sunday and spend my money on getting to where we would be placed....
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
SmartyBarrett wrote:This. Young also disappears (or at least goes cold) when he gets frustrated. I'm pretty confident URI's guard D can accomplish that.TruePoint wrote:OU might be the team I am least afraid of in the whole field. I love watching Young and he is super talented. But if your team's profile is that you are over-reliant on one player, and that one player is a guard, and that guard is not overly physical, turnover prone and highly dependent on jacking up threes, I would really like our chances in that game.
He's also very turnover prone because he forces a lot of passes and we are excellent at getting our hands on risky passes!
Loyola then Oklahoma would be a preferable first weekend.
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- Sly Williams
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
What are the Bonnies chances of an At-Large if URI sweeps everything?
Anybody see a path for them?
I think Adams has the cache that you need as a bubble team. People want to include him and see him play. Their OOC isn't terrible.
Anybody see a path for them?
I think Adams has the cache that you need as a bubble team. People want to include him and see him play. Their OOC isn't terrible.
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- Tyson Wheeler
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
If they win out including a win vs rhody, then they have a shot. In my opinion.
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- Sly Williams
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
In my opinion, SBU probably needs to win out the regular season (which will include a home victory vs. us), and then get to at least the A10 semis, probably the finals. And then it's still a huge question mark.Seawrightspostgame wrote:What are the Bonnies chances of an At-Large if URI sweeps everything?
Anybody see a path for them?
I think Adams has the cache that you need as a bubble team. People want to include him and see him play. Their OOC isn't terrible.
Not that it necessarily matters, but how does SBU compare to URI a year ago after their loss to Fordham? We thought at that point that URI needed to win the A10. As it turns out, we were told, after winning the rest of the regular season, we were in once we reached the finals, and winning the A10 tourney moved us out of the First Four.
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- ARD
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Bonnies beat Syracuse on the road and Maryland on a neutral site. That has to be worth something.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Right now St. Bonaventure is 10-15 spots worse than we were in the kenpom immediately after the Fordham loss.steviep123 wrote:Not that it necessarily matters, but how does SBU compare to URI a year ago after their loss to Fordham? We thought at that point that URI needed to win the A10. As it turns out, we were told, after winning the rest of the regular season, we were in once we reached the finals, and winning the A10 tourney moved us out of the First Four.
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- Kenny Green
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
TruePoint mentioned this in another thread, but if the Bonnies win out the regular season (but lose to us) their RPI will be hovering around 30. Considering they are still in the bubble picture now, I think an at large is definitely possible for them even with a loss to us. Also - a few wins in the A10 tourney could boost them too
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- Tyson Wheeler
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Thats uncomfortable to read.RhowdyRam02 wrote:Right now St. Bonaventure is 10-15 spots worse than we were in the kenpom immediately after the Fordham loss.steviep123 wrote:Not that it necessarily matters, but how does SBU compare to URI a year ago after their loss to Fordham? We thought at that point that URI needed to win the A10. As it turns out, we were told, after winning the rest of the regular season, we were in once we reached the finals, and winning the A10 tourney moved us out of the First Four.
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- Abdul Fox
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
We also had the Cincinnati win on a neutral court. Syracuse on the road is their best win (carries more name power than Buffalo IMO). I think the Cinci win carried a lot more weight than their Syracuse win to the selection committee.RhowdyRam02 wrote:Right now St. Bonaventure is 10-15 spots worse than we were in the kenpom immediately after the Fordham loss.steviep123 wrote:Not that it necessarily matters, but how does SBU compare to URI a year ago after their loss to Fordham? We thought at that point that URI needed to win the A10. As it turns out, we were told, after winning the rest of the regular season, we were in once we reached the finals, and winning the A10 tourney moved us out of the First Four.
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- Jeff Kent
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
St. Johns has wins over Nebraska, Nova & Duke... should they be in?URI96 wrote:Bonnies beat Syracuse on the road and Maryland on a neutral site. That has to be worth something.
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- Cuttino Mobley
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Well yeah... Cincinnati was ranked in the top 15. Syracuse is unranked with RPI is 35, and KenPom is 45.Rhody_JAM wrote:We also had the Cincinnati win on a neutral court. Syracuse on the road is their best win (carries more name power than Buffalo IMO). I think the Cinci win carried a lot more weight than their Syracuse win to the selection committee.RhowdyRam02 wrote:Right now St. Bonaventure is 10-15 spots worse than we were in the kenpom immediately after the Fordham loss.steviep123 wrote:Not that it necessarily matters, but how does SBU compare to URI a year ago after their loss to Fordham? We thought at that point that URI needed to win the A10. As it turns out, we were told, after winning the rest of the regular season, we were in once we reached the finals, and winning the A10 tourney moved us out of the First Four.
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- Frenchy Tomlin
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
"St. Johns has wins over Nebraska, Nova & Duke... should they be in?"
Well, of course not - they'd pretty much have to win out and get to the the BE conference finals.
This only shows three things:
1. There is so much parity right now that on any given night, any team in the top 200 can beat another team in the top 200, regardless of ranking. Hard to do, but not impossible.
2. Big wins over top ranked teams is a factor of having the opportunity to play those games. If by virtue of your conference membership you are guaranteed 6-8 of these games each year, you'll win a few, just like St. John's has done.
3. If your conference is not in the cartel of 5 or the BE, getting even 2-3 of those games is really hard to do if you have to rely on getting them in your OOC schedule. It is a tribute to URI of how they set up their schedule to maximize those opportunities in a down year in the A-10
Well, of course not - they'd pretty much have to win out and get to the the BE conference finals.
This only shows three things:
1. There is so much parity right now that on any given night, any team in the top 200 can beat another team in the top 200, regardless of ranking. Hard to do, but not impossible.
2. Big wins over top ranked teams is a factor of having the opportunity to play those games. If by virtue of your conference membership you are guaranteed 6-8 of these games each year, you'll win a few, just like St. John's has done.
3. If your conference is not in the cartel of 5 or the BE, getting even 2-3 of those games is really hard to do if you have to rely on getting them in your OOC schedule. It is a tribute to URI of how they set up their schedule to maximize those opportunities in a down year in the A-10
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- Sly Williams
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Well I know if they beat us the Bonnies have a much stronger shot at the At-Large bid. BUT I DONT WANT TO LOSE.
I'm wondering what their shot is if they don't win the finals and win all their other games without beating URI.
I'm wondering what their shot is if they don't win the finals and win all their other games without beating URI.
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- Tyson Wheeler
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
St. Johns is the new Syracuse. great wins , but man you can't lose 11 straight in conference.
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- Art Stephenson
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
i think TP touched on this but in RPI Forecast i just ran it and if they won out except vs us, then lost in the A10 finals they would end with a RPI of 29 and a record 25-8 and SOS of 82
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- Tom Garrick
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
St John's beat Duke and Nova in back to back games...I'm not sure you understand how difficult that is especially when they played Nova on the road. I don't think they should be in the tournament but you're definitely not giving St. Johns enough credit for those wins.Beachcomber wrote:"St. Johns has wins over Nebraska, Nova & Duke... should they be in?"
Well, of course not - they'd pretty much have to win out and get to the the BE conference finals.
This only shows three things:
1. There is so much parity right now that on any given night, any team in the top 200 can beat another team in the top 200, regardless of ranking. Hard to do, but not impossible.
2. Big wins over top ranked teams is a factor of having the opportunity to play those games. If by virtue of your conference membership you are guaranteed 6-8 of these games each year, you'll win a few, just like St. John's has done.
3. If your conference is not in the cartel of 5 or the BE, getting even 2-3 of those games is really hard to do if you have to rely on getting them in your OOC schedule. It is a tribute to URI of how they set up their schedule to maximize those opportunities in a down year in the A-10
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- Cuttino Mobley
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Dont forget Nova was down two playersjosephski wrote:St John's beat Duke and Nova in back to back games...I'm not sure you understand how difficult that is especially when they played Nova on the road. I don't think they should be in the tournament but you're definitely not giving St. Johns enough credit for those wins.Beachcomber wrote:"St. Johns has wins over Nebraska, Nova & Duke... should they be in?"
Well, of course not - they'd pretty much have to win out and get to the the BE conference finals.
This only shows three things:
1. There is so much parity right now that on any given night, any team in the top 200 can beat another team in the top 200, regardless of ranking. Hard to do, but not impossible.
2. Big wins over top ranked teams is a factor of having the opportunity to play those games. If by virtue of your conference membership you are guaranteed 6-8 of these games each year, you'll win a few, just like St. John's has done.
3. If your conference is not in the cartel of 5 or the BE, getting even 2-3 of those games is really hard to do if you have to rely on getting them in your OOC schedule. It is a tribute to URI of how they set up their schedule to maximize those opportunities in a down year in the A-10
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
I think if Bona win out and lose in A10 finals they would get in
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- Frenchy Tomlin
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Josephski:
I didn't disparage St. John's or those wins, or somehow misundertand rare and difficult that is -- and I watched both games. I give St. John's tons of credit. But ... they are not an NCCA Tournament team. What they are is a team that has some talent (like scores of other teams) AND lots of opportunities to play top rated teams, and until this past week has generally played poorly. And so this week, at home, they played great and caught Duke off guard, and then played great against a Nova team missing two key players. Good for them. But no one should anoint them as NCAA worthy just because of this past week. They have those wins and little else at this point. Frankly, St. John's has sucked this year (I've watched parts or all of about 6 of their game this season)-- and yet, they got the opportunity, by virtue of conference membership, to play the #1 ranked team in the country. And they won - good for them.
But, for too long the NCAA Committee let into the Tournament teams that played a weak non-con schedule comprised mostly of home games (the Syracuse model) and then a "tough" conference schedule that gave them the opportunity to get a couple of wins against top rated teams in their own conference, so as to build their "resume." Result: lots of those teams got in with little better than .500 records overall, sometimes with losing conference records, but a few "signature" in-conference wins. Other teams with much better records, and without those opportunities, were left on the sidelines.
So, while what St. Johns' did this week was fun to see, and I'm always happy to see Duke lose, I stick by my conclusion that they'll have to do a hell of a lot more to even get into the conversation about the Tournament. And that URI so far has done a masterful job of maximizing its opportunities.
I didn't disparage St. John's or those wins, or somehow misundertand rare and difficult that is -- and I watched both games. I give St. John's tons of credit. But ... they are not an NCCA Tournament team. What they are is a team that has some talent (like scores of other teams) AND lots of opportunities to play top rated teams, and until this past week has generally played poorly. And so this week, at home, they played great and caught Duke off guard, and then played great against a Nova team missing two key players. Good for them. But no one should anoint them as NCAA worthy just because of this past week. They have those wins and little else at this point. Frankly, St. John's has sucked this year (I've watched parts or all of about 6 of their game this season)-- and yet, they got the opportunity, by virtue of conference membership, to play the #1 ranked team in the country. And they won - good for them.
But, for too long the NCAA Committee let into the Tournament teams that played a weak non-con schedule comprised mostly of home games (the Syracuse model) and then a "tough" conference schedule that gave them the opportunity to get a couple of wins against top rated teams in their own conference, so as to build their "resume." Result: lots of those teams got in with little better than .500 records overall, sometimes with losing conference records, but a few "signature" in-conference wins. Other teams with much better records, and without those opportunities, were left on the sidelines.
So, while what St. Johns' did this week was fun to see, and I'm always happy to see Duke lose, I stick by my conclusion that they'll have to do a hell of a lot more to even get into the conversation about the Tournament. And that URI so far has done a masterful job of maximizing its opportunities.
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
There's talk of St Johns being a tournament team? at 12-13? Bwahaha
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
I think if they only lose to Rhody (in the Finals too) they get in. 25-8 and 13-5. They would finish the seaseon on a 13-2 run only losing to a Top 20 team.wpbrown8267 wrote:i think TP touched on this but in RPI Forecast i just ran it and if they won out except vs us, then lost in the A10 finals they would end with a RPI of 29 and a record 25-8 and SOS of 82
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Still think it's a one bid league unless someone else wins the A10T....
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
theblueram wrote:There's talk of St Johns being a tournament team? at 12-13? Bwahaha
........yes, there is a regional CYO tourney.....
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Say good night to the Johnnies they are done
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
This morning's bracket:
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
We are a 4th seed in San Diego taking on Buffalo
Virginia is the overall number one seed and they would take on UNC-Asheville, assuming Asheville wins their play in game
Seton Hall is a 7
Alabama is an 8
Nevada and Providence are 9's
Florida Gulf Coast is a 16
St. Bonaventure is 7th out
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
We are a 4th seed in San Diego taking on Buffalo
Virginia is the overall number one seed and they would take on UNC-Asheville, assuming Asheville wins their play in game
Seton Hall is a 7
Alabama is an 8
Nevada and Providence are 9's
Florida Gulf Coast is a 16
St. Bonaventure is 7th out
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Fun to watch them take on the big guys...but, yes....'done' unless they win the BET...just like 'bona....reef wrote:Say good night to the Johnnies they are done
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Bonaventure is lurking, a lot like we were last year. Depends on how weak the bubble is this year.
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- Frenchy Tomlin
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Interesting article in ESPN today about Tournament seeding, with a mention of URI as a team to watch under the new standard:
"When the NCAA made its team-sheet changes last month, it separated out the three résumé metrics (strength of record, KPI and RPI) from the three team-strength metrics (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin ratings). The sheet then averages the ranks of the three résumé metrics from the ranks of the three team strength metrics and then averaged all six ranks together. What we don't yet know is how the committee will weigh these two types of metrics.
Should a team like Gonzaga or Wichita State (BPI: 9, SOR: 33) be ranked at all, that would suggest the committee could be considering team-strength metrics such as BPI or Sagarin ratings more than it had in the past.
Regardless of how it weighs the new metrics, the key signal from the NCAA is that it is preparing to move away from RPI. That's a positive for anyone hoping for a more accurate bracket, and it will help the committee avoid seeding flubs such as in 2016 with Oregon, which received a No. 1 seed while ranked fourth in RPI but 10th in SOR and 28th in BPI. Regarding RPI this year, one team to watch is Rhode Island, which ranks fifth in the old statistic but 15th in strength of record and 26th in BPI."
"When the NCAA made its team-sheet changes last month, it separated out the three résumé metrics (strength of record, KPI and RPI) from the three team-strength metrics (BPI, KenPom, Sagarin ratings). The sheet then averages the ranks of the three résumé metrics from the ranks of the three team strength metrics and then averaged all six ranks together. What we don't yet know is how the committee will weigh these two types of metrics.
Should a team like Gonzaga or Wichita State (BPI: 9, SOR: 33) be ranked at all, that would suggest the committee could be considering team-strength metrics such as BPI or Sagarin ratings more than it had in the past.
Regardless of how it weighs the new metrics, the key signal from the NCAA is that it is preparing to move away from RPI. That's a positive for anyone hoping for a more accurate bracket, and it will help the committee avoid seeding flubs such as in 2016 with Oregon, which received a No. 1 seed while ranked fourth in RPI but 10th in SOR and 28th in BPI. Regarding RPI this year, one team to watch is Rhode Island, which ranks fifth in the old statistic but 15th in strength of record and 26th in BPI."
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- Frank Keaney
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Re: 2017-18 Bracketology
Nice I think 4 is where we belong, if we win out could go as high as a 3 ?? If we lose again could drop as low as a 6 ?? I will be pissed with a 7, 8 or 9 ??