2013-14 Attendance Contest Summary

[Obadiah]

Summary of Average Attendance predictions follow.

Considering the 78 participants and the size of the Ryan center, it was surprising how many duplicates and close estimates were submitted.

Nine participants have predicted that URI this season will achieve their highest record in average per game attendance.

The highest prediction is the 6,187 made by ramfan85 and the most pessimistic is ramster’s prediction at 4,590, a number just a bit higher than that recorded in Jim Baron’s disastrous final year.

Good Luck to all!!

Code: Select all

     Participant	  Average Attendance       Category

1.	 ramfan85	          6,187               6,000 and above
2.    CT Rhody             6,100
3.    rhodyRams08          6,099
4.	 section(105)	      6,001

5.	 NJ03          	    5,969               5,500 to 5,999
6.	 RIhoopz14	         5,931
7.    ATPTourFan           5,898
8.	 Mongo	             5,896
9.    RhodeIslandBred      5,890
10.	rambone 78	        5,834
11.	BuiltRamTough 2005	5,824
12.   jcru			        5,800
13.	RoadyJay	          5,791
14.	reef	              5,788
15.	NJRhodyFan	        5,750
16.	Blue Man	          5,741
17.   Sweep The Leg        5,730
18.   Seawrightspostgame   5,687
19.   ramswin              5,680
20.   Rhodyhoopz	        5,678
21.   URI96                5,676
22.   jaywin86	          5,666
23.	Rhody74	           5,632
24.   Section104           5,627
25.	SmartyBarrett	     5,621
26.   Shinze88	          5,555

27.	twisted3829	       5,483                5,000 to 5,499
28.   Rhody72              5,474
29.   Essam                5,455
30.   TruePoint            5,450
31.   Stop! Rammer Time    5,435
32.   sf2010               5,432
33.   4diffs	            5,431
34.   neil                 5,423
35.   theblueram           5,400
36.	mmp136   	         5,372
37.	The Dude    	      5,365
38.	rhodyfan3	         5,343
39.   Rhody Guy            5,321
40.   Backroads            5,312
41.   MERam                5,311
42.   Ramulous             5,301
43.   RAM67                5,281 
44.   gorhody89            5,264
45.   NY2Rhody             5,235
46.   bpaz11               5,222           
47.   zporiri              5,201
48.   UCH21377             5,200
49.   bressler3south       5,199
50.   URIGONZO             5,168
51.   uri78                5,155
52.   adam914              5,118
53.   spookydog            5,117
54.   Gonebarongone        5,115
55.   ace                  5,107
56.   NHRamFan             5,083
57.   bigappleram          5,035
58.	rhodylaw	          5,017
59.   Justns11             5,009
60.   Iggy1979             5,005
61.   Bos8                 5,002
62.   Andrew               5,000

63.   RIFan                4,993                 4,999 and below
64.   BFC                  4,991
65.   Rhody10ltu09         4,986
66.   jmck                 4,975
67.   rhodyrudder          4,992
68.   CTRamfan             4,950
69.   luke                 4,923
70.   Billyboy78           4,907
71.   Ram1019              4,885
72.   URI_05               4,875
73.   URIFIJI              4,838
74.   rhodylocal           4,823
75.   URI_IEP	           4,700
76.   ramsman75            4,643
77.   bjornsupremacy       4,618
78.   ramster              4,590

[ramfan85]

I wish I said 6,186. I think my prediction was a bit high...

[Obadiah]

After one game, theblueram is the leader.

[ATPTourFan]

You can thank the students for that #.

[RhowdyRam02]

Some really nice attendance trends from this one. Last night we got 5410. Last year's season opener was 5045 and the average was 4291. In Baron's last season the season opener against Hofstra drew 3220 and the average was 3829. The last time we played Maine was Baron's last year and it only drew 2710. Only four games in the last 2 seasons had more people than last night's game. In Baron's last year it was PC and the Saturday afternoon Temple game when they honored the 1988 team. Last year it was VCU and Xavier for the pink out game. Add on the fact that by all accounts the student turnout last night was good and the game was the type that would make them want to see more and there's a lot to like. Not only is this board more excited but it's obvious the greater community is starting to pay attention to what's going on here.

[ace]

I wish I sais 6,186. I think my prediction was a bit high...

Nice.

[BuiltRamTough 2005]

We also forgot to mention that it is a long weekend and most students are tempted to go home for the long weekend. Especially since Thanksgiving is so late this year. Hopefully we will see the numbers continue to rise as the season progresses!

[Stop! Rammer Time]

We also forgot to mention that it is a long weekend and most students are tempted to go home for the long weekend. Especially since Thanksgiving is so late this year. Hopefully we will see the numbers continue to rise as the season progresses!

Hopefully that's true. I invited a good deal of my friends who went home for the weekend so I told them they'd have to come with me next weekend.

[RhowdyRam02]

According to the basketball team's official twitter, there were 1,365 students last night. Damn impressive considering it was a Friday night leading into a 3 day weekend and those are people in seats, not distributed tickets.

[Rhody74]

Very happy to see the student sections so full. Unfortunately, the frequent fouls tend to dampen crowd enthusiasm (student and non-student) but it certainly was better than the exhibition game.

[Ramulous]

There were not 5410 actual people there in my opinion.......that may be the base attendance this year......season tickets as a base with students added in......therefore I believe anyone who predicted below that number, myself included, are probably out of the running already.....

[twisted3829]

i'm sure there were walk up sales, attendance will be lower for some games especially over break

[ATPTourFan]

Anyone else notice how attendance is not being included in box scores shown on sites like espn and other national outlets? Schools are providing it, but it's not making it to the big sites.

[theblueram]

After one game, theblueram is the leader.

Sweet!

Although I hope in the end I underestimated by 1,000.

[Obadiah]

ATP, it tends to vary. Sometimes the box score attendance is not listed right after the game ends, but may show up later. In yesterday's A-10 games, Duquesne and Dayton attendance don't show but the other three games do.

BTW, here is the attendance summary for the A-10 home openers so far.

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Dayton       12,145
VCU           7,741
Saint Louis   7,714
Richmond      6,721
George Mason  6,602
URI           5,410
St. Bona      3,855
La Salle      3,400
GW            2,531
Duquesne      2,482
Fordham       2,036

[ATPTourFan]

OB, yeah. There was something going on Friday they kept the attendance from being sent to media outlets. It's resolved as far as I can see. I saw the numbers for the A10 games.

Student participation is the major wild card in this year's prediction. They can easily make the average swell towards 6000 if they continue to support the team.

[Obadiah]

Agreed. And as game performance improves to our expectations, URI must move from the middle of the pack into the class of the top performers of the conference on attendance limited only by Ryan's capacity.

[reef]

5400 is not a bad number on a FRiday night vs Maine

[URIGONZO]

There is no way there were 5,400 people there Friday night. The 200 levels center sideline seats weren't even full.

[ATPTourFan]

There is no way there were 5,400 people there Friday night. The 200 levels center sideline seats weren't even full.

I think we're all aware they, along with rest of world, report tickets distributed. Students accounted for 1300 (a real number), so if you consider individual tix sold (single game and season tix), you'd get that 5400 number.

I'd LOVE to know the "actual beating hearts in the building" number, but those are state secrets.

One thing that DID indicate that they had strong walk-up, single-game, or freebie tix numbers was the CORNERS of 200s. They were fairly well populated. I agree that there were many season tix that were not redeemed for Maine, resulting in the gaps seen in the 200 club sections (As well as 104/105).

[ramster]

There is no way there were 5,400 people there Friday night. The 200 levels center sideline seats weren't even full.

Absolutely right - not even remotely close to 5400 in person

[ATPTourFan]

But what's the point of even mentioning it. It is always tix distributed and not true gate.

[ramster]

But what's the point of even mentioning it. It is always tix distributed and not true gate.

that is true for sure, but there were a lot more no-shows than I expected - a LOT fewer thatn 5400 showed up physically in the stands

[Obadiah]

For what it's worth, here is where we stand after two games.

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                           Season-to-Date	     Last Season
Team Scoring, ppg	            77.5	             61.2
Top Scorer, ppg	         Onyekaba, 15.0       Munford, 17.4
                           Matthews, 11.5
                           Reischel, 11.0	
Home Attendance Average	     5,410	             4,291
Record after two games	       1-1	               0-2

[Obadiah]

After second home game, leader in contest is Gonebarongone at 5115.

[Obadiah]

Just a reminder, that the attendance figures for the URI game versus UNC-Asheville on Nov. 25 and the Nov. 26 game against McNeese State WILL NOT BE INCLUDED in the prediction contest.

[ATPTourFan]

Good, cuz they would drag down our averages!

[Obadiah]

Third home game is in the books with 4,342 in attendance and this brings the to-date average to 4,858. URI_05 is the new leader.

[rhodyrudder]

Are we counting the next 2 games as part of the home attendance average for contest purposes?

[ATPTourFan]

Are we counting the next 2 games as part of the home attendance average for contest purposes?

Nope.

[rhodyrudder]

I'm of the opinion that they should. They do count as home games, no?

[rhodyrudder]

What are the lowest-attended games at RC?
These 2 may join the list?

[ATPTourFan]

In the original prediction thread, the rules were explained more fully. The reason for not including these two games was because they were not guaranteed to be played and opponents were not known.

[Iggy1979]

I guess anyone 6000 or over have been eliminated

[ATPTourFan]

Yeah, I'd say those like me who predicted in the high 5000s are in trouble.

We can pencil in a 7657 sell-out for the PC game, leaving 10 games which count for this contest.

To achieve a 6000 average, we must average 6177
For my 5898 to win, we need 6034 each game.

Not happening. The Ryan Center season avg attendance record is just under 5900.

[Obadiah]

With tonight's capacity house, URI average attendance moves to 5,558 and Shinze88 moves into the lead.

[Iggy1979]

First 25 likely eliminated.

[Obadiah]

I agree with you, Iggy with one qualifier. We will not have great attendance for the UNH game - unattractive opponent and bad timing coming just days before Christmas, we will do better for Southern Miss. - quality team and timing will attract those visiting families for the holidays. Then we open the A-10 with four attractive home games - Saint Louis, George Mason, Dayton, and UMass. If URI can show some improvement and some nice wins before that stretch, we can expect crowds bigger than our opener against Maine.

[RF1]

My guess at this time is that the average attendance for the year per this contest's rules will be below 5k. The disappointing start to the season will really hurt down the road. The best hope for greatly increased attendance was for a promising start to excite casual fans and build momentum for better attendance as the season progressed. That is not going to happen now. The real NCAA calculated home attendance will be in the low 4k range with the NIT Season Tip-Off games included. With their numbers, our current average attendance through 7 games is just 3,422. It was 4,291 last year. The official attendance records will unfortuantely likely show no substantial change year over year per what a statistician would see.

[ATPTourFan]

RF1, so you are saying two things. I agree with the latter point regarding the official NCAA stats which will include the NIT games with sub-1000 attendance.

However, in measuring increased interest in the program, I think the "contest rules" are more applicable. I disagree that the contest rules average will not be above 5000. I think there are some potential highly attended games on the schedule with UMass and Dayton. Student attendance will help get us some +6000 games, I believe.

We won't see any games with attendance figures below 4500 going forward, so our average per the contest could finish near 5500.

[URIGONZO]

I agree that games against top 25 (or close) teams like Dayton and UMass will be highly attended. The last 4 home games will be less attended but I don't see any potential stinkers that will lower average attendance significantly. Getting myself to the RC for a noon tip-off against Duquesne on a Saturday is the only one where I think to myself "I'm probably not going to make that one."

[rodfromcranston]

"We won't see any games with attendance figures below 4500 going forward"
Bet I can count the house next Sunday against UNH.

[ATPTourFan]

"We won't see any games with attendance figures below 4500 going forward"
Bet I can count the house next Sunday against UNH.

OK, that one may be pushing the 4000 limit. No students, bad timing, bad opponent.

[RF1]

However, in measuring increased interest in the program, I think the "contest rules" are more applicable. I disagree that the contest rules average will not be above 5000. I think there are some potential highly attended games on the schedule with UMass and Dayton. Student attendance will help get us some +6000 games, I believe.

We won't see any games with attendance figures below 4500 going forward, so our average per the contest could finish near 5500.

The UNH and Southern Miss numbers will be below the contest season average to date. Not all attractive A-10 games will draw well. The SLU game is a weeknight in early January during break and I don't expect a big gate. The UMass game on a Sunday should draw well and include a sizeable opponent crowd. Dayton on a Saturday should also do well. The Duquense, Richmond and GMU games get prime dates on Saturdays but I don't expect them to be big draws (especially given that two have starts before 1pm). Fordham and St Joe weeknight games will not draw particularly well. Keep in mind that weather usually also factors into attendance in one or two games each season. I still think per the contest rules games, the ending avg attendance will be settle in around 5k. As a point of reference, only three A-10 games last season drew more than 5K.

[Iggy1979]

However, in measuring increased interest in the program, I think the "contest rules" are more applicable. I disagree that the contest rules average will not be above 5000. I think there are some potential highly attended games on the schedule with UMass and Dayton. Student attendance will help get us some +6000 games, I believe.

We won't see any games with attendance figures below 4500 going forward, so our average per the contest could finish near 5500.

The UNH and Southern Miss numbers will be below the contest season average to date. Not all attractive A-10 games will draw well. The SLU game is a weeknight in early January during break and I don't expect a big gate. The UMass game on a Sunday should draw well and include a sizeable opponent crowd. Dayton on a Saturday should also do well. The Duquense, Richmond and GMU games get prime dates on Saturdays but I don't expect them to be big draws (especially given that two have starts before 1pm). Fordham and St Joe weeknight games will not draw particularly well. I still think per the contest rules games, the ending avg attendance will be settle in around 5k. As a point of reference, only three A-10 games last season drew more than 5K.

Right around 5005, I figure.

[Obadiah]

When I drew up the attendance contest rules, I knew from past history that the two NIT games, if held at URI, would not draw well because both games were not included in the season ticket subscriber base. This is exactly what happened at other campus sites in previous years. Consider that fact, then add in the unattractiveness and unfamiliarity with both opponents - UNC-Asheville and McNeese State - and then schedule those games just before a major holiday, you set-up an "aberrant" situation which in no way, shape or form is indicative of the URI fan base. Thus, to generalize this beyond those special conditions and to criticize the URI fan base about it, is simply nonsense. It is the reaction of people who have an agenda and who like to engage in superficial and snarky observations - that includes Jim Donaldson and fans of rival schools.

[Obadiah]

Also, remember that A-10 games mostly draw better than OOC games and that the OOC attendance averages are raised by 500-600 in those years the PC game is played at Ryan. Attendance summary for last six seasons:

URI Attendance Averages: OOC vs. A-10

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Season	  OOC Attendance   A-10 Attendance

2007-08*	     4,861	         6,837
2008-09	      4,601	         5,848
2009-10*	     4,538	         6,439
2010-11	      4,739	         5,077
2011-12*	     3,818	         3,837
2012-13	      4,049	         4,503
* PC game played at Ryan

[RF1]

Also, remember that A-10 games mostly draw better than OOC games and that the OOC attendance averages are raised by 500-600 in those years the PC game is played at Ryan. Attendance summary for last six seasons:

URI Attendance Averages: OOC vs. A-10

Code: Select all

Season	  OOC Attendance   A-10 Attendance

2007-08*	     4,861	         6,837
2008-09	      4,601	         5,848
2009-10*	     4,538	         6,439
2010-11	      4,739	         5,077
2011-12*	     3,818	         3,837
2012-13	      4,049	         4,503
* PC game played at Ryan

While the attendance has generally been better for A-10 conference games, the biggest positve variances were in years when URI had good teams. Consider also that the A-10 had Temple and Xavier in those years and they are more attractive than most all of what remains in the league today. I think you will see A-10 attendance similar to last year's 4,503, probably a slight bit more. That is why I think the average will be close to 5k, and perhaps a bit below.

[Obadiah]

You may be right RF1, but I think that your prediction only occurs if this team continues to slide sideways. I am a bit more optimistic given that the last three games, though all losses, showed some improvement. With better team performance, I see 5200-5500 as the average.

You have to consider several other factors, last year's A-10 attendance was affected by the blizzard for the St. Bona's game which reduced the average by about 300. This year with two games to go my guess is the OOC average will be close to 5000 which will make it one of the best averages in recent years. Also note that the mini packages come into play and those were heavy with A-10 games. Also the UMass game will be huge no matter how Rhody does, because UMass fans will be out in droves as they try to take over the Ryan Center as their home court al la the 90's at the Dunk.

[Obadiah]

With today's attendance of 3,246 for the UNH game, the year-to date average now stands at 5,095 and ace and NHRamFan are tied for the lead