2012-13 Prediction Contest Summary

[Obadiah]

Here is the summary of all the bets placed in the 5th Annual Prediction Contest, sequenced from best record to worst record. I will summarize the Top Scorer bets in a separate thread. Let me know of any entry errors in either contest.

Some contest demographics:

• A record number of 85 participants have signed up for the contest.
• 21% predicted a winning season for URI.
• One poster predicted the first Big Dance invite in 14 years!!
• Three posters predicted a worst season than last year.
• rhodylaw has the most optimistic prediction at 20-9, ramster has the worse at 4-25.

The four components of each prediction:

1. Overall Record
2. A-10 Record
3. A-10 Tournament Record
4. Winner and score of last game versus UMass

Code: Select all

1.  rhodylaw	          20-9	11-5	2-1	URI, 82-73

2.  Essam	             19-10  13-3   2-1   URI, 69-65
								
3.  rhodyRams08	       18-11	9-7	1-1	URI, 72-65
4.  ramswin	           18-11	9-7	2-1	URI, 63-62
5.  SDRam	             18-11	9-7	4-0	URI, 64-58
6.  Seawrightspostgame	18-11	8-8	1-1	URI, 63-58

7.  rhodyrudder	       17-12	9-7	1-1	URI, 74-68
8.  The Dude	          17-12	8-8	2-1	URI, 71-68
				
9.  RamInLA	           16-13	9-7   1-1   URI, 73-72
10. Wickfordram	       16-13	9-7	2-1	URI, 69-67
11. Section104	        16-13	9-7	1-1	URI, 65-60
12. NJ03	              16-13	8-8   1-1   URI, 70-69
13. Blue Man	          16-13	7-9	1-1	URI, 69-64
				
14. Justns11	          15-14	8-8	1-1	UMass, 71-69
15. Rhody72	           15-14	8-8	1-1	URI, 72-68
16. jcru                 15-14   8-8   1-1   URI, 79-77
17. rambone 78	        15-14	7-9	1-1	URI, 75-73
18. Rhody74	           15-14	7-9	1-1	URI, 70-69

19. BFC	               14-15	8-8	1-1	URI, 77-64
20. URI_IEP	           14-15	8-8	1-1	URI, 71-65
21. Odomrhodeus	       14-15	7-9	0-1	URI, 65-55
22. Andrew	            14-15	7-9	0-1	URI, 63-57
23. BuiltRam Tough2005	14-15	7-9	0-1	URI, 67-64
24. Rhody Guy	         14-15	7-9	1-1	URI, 75-70
25. varhody	           14-15	7-9	1-1	URI, 81-79
26. rhody2005	         14-15	7-9	0-1	URI, 68-65
27. Running Ram 	      14-15	7-9	1-1	URI, 71-70
				
28. jro44	             13-16	7-9	0-1	UMass, 68-57
29. Ramsman75	         13-16	7-9	0-1	URI, 69-64
30. RhodyNJ	           13-16	7-9	0-1	URI, 53-52
31. Kingston	          13-16	7-9	0-1	UMass, 81-69
32. Rhodyhooopz	       13-16   6-10  0-1   URI, 74-68
33. ncram	             13-16	6-10  0-1   UMass, 68-67

34. Rhody10ltu09	      12-17	7-9	 1-1	URI, 73-72
35. RAM67	             12-17	7-9	 1-1	UMass, 71-68
36. skwalk	            12-17	7-9	 1-1	URI, 71-65
37. sf2010	            12-17	6-10	0-1   URI, 64-57
38. reef	              12-17	6-10	0-1   UMass, 70-65
39. NHRamFan	          12-17	6-10	0-1   URI, 72-68
40. Iggy1979	          12-17	6-10	0-1   URI, 70-62
41. McRam	             12-17	6-10	0-1   URI, 68-65
42. STC	               12-17	6-10	0-1   UMass, 67-58
43. Sweep The Leg	     12-17	6-10	0-1   UMass, 73-69
44. ATPTourFan	        12-17   6-10	1-1	UMass, 68-60
45. RhodeRule            12-17   6-10   0-1   UMass, 71-61
46. jmck	              12-17	5-11   DNQ   URI, 66-61
47. Twisted 3829	      12-17	5-11	0-1	UMass, 65-58
48. Shinze88	          12-17	5-11	0-1	URI, 71-68

49. jaywin86	          11-18	7-9	 0-1	URI, 68-62
50. URIFIJI	           11-18	6-10   DNQ   UMass, 68-64
51. bigappleram	       11-18	6-10	1-1	UMass, 78-68
52. goRhody89	         11-18   6-10   0-1	UMass, 63-57
53. spookydog	         11-18	6-10	0-1	UMass, 67-61
54. neil	              11-18   6-10	1-1	URI, 61-57
55. TruePoint	         11-18	6-10	0-1	URI, 62-56
56. 4Diffs	            11-18	6-10	0-1	UMass, 69-67
57. URI_05	            11-18	5-11	0-1	UMass, 63-55
58. rodfromcranston	   11-18	5-11	DNQ	URI, 63-62
59. mmp136	            11-18	5-11	0-1	URI, 69-65

60. Mongo	             10-19	5-11  1-1   UMass, 79-72
61. EasyEdBrown	       10-19   5-11  0-1	UMass, 78-71
62. adam914	           10-19	5-11  DNQ   UMass, 68-61
63. URI96	             10-19	5-11  DNQ	URI, 68-66
64. ace	               10-19	5-11  0-1	UMass, 69-61
65. BleedRhodyBlue	    10-19	5-11  0-1	UMass, 81-77
66. MERam	             10-19	5-11  DNQ   UMass, 77-63
67. Bos8	              10-19   4-12  DNQ	UMass, 75-65  
68. urirx	             10-19	4-12  DNQ	URI, 78-76
69. uri78	             10-19	4-12  DNQ   URI, 70-69
70. Ramulous	          10-19	4-12  DNQ   UMass 75-62

71. Billyboy78	         9-20   5-11  DNQ	UMass, 63-49
72. NY2Rhody	           9-20	5-11  DNQ	URI, 68-64
73. URIGONZO	           9-20	5-11  DNQ   UMass, 65-55
74. bjornsupremacy	     9-20	5-11  DNQ   URI, 68-63
75. Rhody D	            9-20	5-11  DNQ	URI, 61-57
76. Issac	              9-20	4-12  DNQ	UMass, 78-64

77. SmartyBarrett	      8-21	4-12  DNQ   UMass, 74-64
78. bpaz11	             8-21	4-11  DNQ   URI, 78-76
79. RIhoopz14	          8-21   4-12  DNQ	UMass, 73-61
80. CTRamFan	           8-21   3-13  DNQ   UMass, 86-65
				
81. Section(105)	       7-22   5-11  0-1   UMass, 67-63
82. RamJam	             7-22   3-13  DNQ	UMass, 77-59
				
83. UCH21377	           6-23   3-13  DNQ   UMass, 60-55
				
84. Hurley Show	        5-24   2-14  DNQ	UMass, 74-61
				
85. ramster	            4-25	1-15  DNQ	UMass, 74-58

[reef]

This is the greatest contests of all contests !!!!

[ramster]

Obadiah,
Great job in putting this together.
One of the more amazing statistics is that 61 of the 85 predictors (72%) have URI going to the A10 Post Season Tournament in NY.
Only 24 or 28% said Rhody DNQ.
Only the Top 12 out of 16 make the A10 Tournament this year.
- 24 have URI winning 1 game in the A10 Tourney
- 5 posters have URI winning 2 games and one has us winning 4 games and losing none - ticket punched for the Dance
The contest certainly brings a funlevel of interest to the season.
It would be interesting to know what the average wins was last year and the actual results. Maybe even for the past several years. My guess is that we as Rhody Fans are far more privy to Rose Colored Classes and predict significantly higher than what actually happens

[Obadiah]

ramster to answer your question, last year's team surprised even the least ardent supporters of URI and was the high water mark in disappointment and the contest showed that. Out of 62 bets, seven predicted another 20 win season and over 70% predicted a winning season. Only three posters said we would not qualify for the A-10 tournament and only two predicted a single digit win season. You can't get more off the mark than last season's predictions.

Any level of optimism shown this year is clearly due to the advent of the Hurleys. And frankly I think that's a new refreshing tone.

[Ramulous]

Thanks to Obadiah for running this contest and supplying the prizes.

Conspicuous by his absence......no entry for Gandy....I hope she is well. Or he.

[URIGONZO]

After 2 games, I think anyone who picked between 9 and 12 wins has a good shot at winning the contest.

[ATPTourFan]

I think my 12 wins is too optimistic. I thought they'd get the Norfolk game.

[jmck]

i'm out!

[reef]

I hope we win double figs ???

[URIGONZO]

Question: Say myself and Billyboy are correct and UMASS wins the last game, what score indicates a victory for Billyboy, and what score means a win for me?

[Obadiah]

Good question, GONZO. First determinate here is margin of win by UMass. Your bet shows a 10 point margin, Billyboy shows a 14 point margin. So if UMass beats URI by 13 points or more, Billyboy is the winner. If UMass wins by 11 points or less, you are the winner. The problem is the margin difference between your bets is 4, a even number, so if UMass wins by 12 points, you have a tie. The determinate now becomes total points scored, GONZO predicted 120 points and Billyboy predicted 112 and which of these comes closest to the actual point total wins. However, once again the difference is 8 points, an even number, so if the total points actually is 116, we again have a tie, but have run out of determining factors. Let's hope that this does not happen, but if it does, it will be treated as the lotteries do - two winners will be declared and the prize will be split 50/50.

[reef]

That scenario will not happen, book it !!!

[Billyboy78]

That scenario will not happen, book it !!!

Say it ain't so, Reef!

[SmartyBarrett]

Good question, GONZO. First determinate here is margin of win by UMass. Your bet shows a 10 point margin, Billyboy shows a 14 point margin. So if UMass beats URI by 13 points or more, Billyboy is the winner. If UMass wins by 11 points or less, you are the winner. The problem is the margin difference between your bets is 4, a even number, so if UMass wins by 12 points, you have a tie. The determinate now becomes total points scored, GONZO predicted 120 points and Billyboy predicted 112 and which of these comes closest to the actual point total wins. However, once again the difference is 8 points, an even number, so if the total points actually is 116, we again have a tie, but have run out of determining factors. Let's hope that this does not happen, but if it does, it will be treated as the lotteries do - two winners will be declared and the prize will be split 50/50.

So basically if UMass wins 64-52 it's a tie. Hate to say it, but that score sounds awfully similar to the scores of Rhody's first two games this season....

[Billyboy78]

I'd be thrilled with a tie.

[Billyboy78]

I think at this point I'd also be thrilled with 9 wins. I'm expecting an 0-8 start. 9 wins mean they go 9-12 the rest of the way. That would indicate what we're all looking for, a team that is improving as the season goes along. I think a 9-20 season with what Hurley has to work with right now would be a great accomplishment.

[URIGONZO]

I think we're all a little jaded by our previous coach who had an AWFUL record in the Atlantic 10. I'm not saying that he conference is easy, I'm just saying that we should have some more hope in conference with our new staff. Instead of just resigning to the fact that we're gonna get our asses kicked in conference, we should have just a little bit more hope.

[reef]

Our schedule is real rough early on, wins will be tough to come by

[section(105)]

Even with the one win(for now)I still think someone in the bottom 1/4 group is going to win; hope I am wrong, but thus far from what I/ve seen and digested not many wins out there...............

[Blue Man]

Even with the one win(for now)I still think someone in the bottom 1/4 group is going to win; hope I am wrong, but thus far from what I/ve seen and digested not many wins out there...............

Not sure 105...last night could be a serious watershed moment for this team.

Mason, VT are very winnable for us. PC is a very similar team right now. Not a lot inside, no PG, no depth (unless council and dunn come back). SMU at home will be interesting. Ga State and Brown also winnable.

Very possible to see us go 4-3 or 5-2 the rest of the OOC slate.

[reef]

I think we have a decent shot to win double figs, there will be winnable games in conf also

[twisted3829]

Unless we go 6-1 over the last 7 games of the OOC schedule I'm in trouble

[Ramulous]

I am looking forward to the year I predict 30 victories !!!

[Blue Man]

Unless we go 6-1 over the last 7 games of the OOC schedule I'm in trouble

You know what's nice? Feeling like we're going to be in every single game we play. Not win them all - but we'll have a chance in every game. That's so awesome. And different.

Progress > "The Process"

[ace]

I'm just going to go back and change my scoring leader to Munford. That's cool, right?

[reef]

My first time seeing X and I love his game !!

[URIGONZO]

I need URI to win 2 more out of conference games, do you think they have a chance of going 2-2 down the stretch?

[reef]

Will be real tough to do that

[ramster]

I need URI to win 2 more out of conference games, do you think they have a chance of going 2-2 down the stretch?

4 games to go, yes we could go 2-2 in the remainer of OCC.
Sat. 15 SMU 2:00 PM EST TV: OSN Currently 8-1. Will be tough to beat even on our home court.

Sat. 22 Georgia State 2:00 PM EST - Georgia State, even though they pummeled us last year by 30 this should be a win for us. They lost several key players from last years team. Led by 6'6" guard RJ Hunter, a Freshman and son of their Coach

Thu. 27 at Saint Mary's 10:00 PM EST - very tough road game. 6-2 and team led by upper classmen. Top scorer from Australia
January
Fri. 4 Brown 7:00 PM EST - Should absolutely be a win at home

[reef]

Agreed could be losses to SMU and SMC and wins over Ga St and Brown

[TruePoint]

I'm not going to go so far as to predict a win against what I imagine is a well-coached SMU team, but when you look at their schedule that is a SOFT 8-1. I know that didn't help us against PC, but still. I'm not ready to put that one in the 'L' column just yet.

[twisted3829]

SMU is a toss up, GaST is very winnable, St Mary's is probably a loss and Brown is very winnable

[TruePoint]

If we don't beat Brown I will question where we are going for the first time. Just by virtue of the fact that we have scholarship athletes and what we think is a great coach, we have to win that game. Losing to Yale last year is where I officially tuned out for the season, and the first thing I thought when we brought Hurley in as that, at the very least, we are done losing games like that even with a "bad" team.

[ATPTourFan]

Ya gotta call Maine, Yale, and Brown.... My Daddy!!

where are ya, reef!

[reef]

We will wipe the floor with Brown !!!!

[Ramulous]

As of today...I have overestimated my bid by 2 wins....I thought we would be 6-7 non-con.....I see 4-9 now....

[rambone 78]

We will end up 5-8 OOC. Could have been 7-6, maybe even 8-5 if you throw out the last 5 minutes of a couple games.

For my prediction to come true, we have to go 10-6 in conference.

Whoops. Not happening. 6-10 looks about right.

Somewhere between 10-12 wins, hopefully we avoid the dreaded 20 loss season. We will pull a couple of upsets, and probably throw in a couple of stinkers also.

Maybe get to NY, and maybe win a game there. That's it for this year.

[Blue Man]

seriously though..the way we've been improving - im not ready to write us off a higher finish in the A-10.

Powell is certainly not the Mike Powell of last year, or even games 1-6. We're weakest down low, but the A-10 is a guard dominated league.

even with a loss tonight, and a win against brown, we'd be 5-3 going into conference play, and as a surprise for URI basketball...we'll be playing our best basketball since we get better every game it seems.

Seriously, we have a legit chance to be a top half finisher in conference...

[Rhody74]

seriously though..the way we've been improving - im not ready to write us off a higher finish in the A-10.

Powell is certainly not the Mike Powell of last year, or even games 1-6. We're weakest down low, but the A-10 is a guard dominated league.

even with a loss tonight, and a win against brown, we'd be 5-3 going into conference play, and as a surprise for URI basketball...we'll be playing our best basketball since we get better every game it seems.

Seriously, we have a legit chance to be a top half finisher in conference...

I'd be thrilled if they made it to Brooklyn .... top half seems a bit ambitious, especially if anyone gets injured for long (and I'm not talking about Mike Aaman).

[rodfromcranston]

Yes, injuries could be a killer.
So thin, anyway, even losing Aaman for a couple of games hurts.

[Blue Man]

It is nice this year, to have more people on the verge of being eliminated from the bottom of the list versus the top...

[reef]

We better beat Brown now

[URIGONZO]

So I essentially need a loss against Brown, or I am boxed out of any sort of chance to win the contest.

I'm still rooting for URI against Brown, by the way.


My favorite cheer for Brown is "What's the color of shit? BROWN"

[reef]

That is a good one

[jmck]

when i was a kid my dad took me to some brown games and root for uri. the rhody crowd would sing "what's the color of horseshit?, brown, brown, brown." that was over forty years ago.

[Obadiah]

We have the season's first elimination! With URI's win over Brown to bring season's record to 5-8, ramster is officially eliminated from contest.

[reef]

Bye bye ramster bye bye !!!

[Rhodyhooopz]

Elimination fro mthe bottom of the pool is a good thing!

[Blue Man]

11-5 in conference for the win...LEGGOOOOO

[Rhody74]

I need a 10-6 conference record .... not particularly optimistic ...