NCAA MBB NET 2021-22 and Tournament Bracketology

[ramster]

The first NET scheduled to be released today
Some significant changes in how the NET is calculated in its 4th season of existence.


This is the fourth season in which the NET rankings have been used in men's basketball and it'll be the first season that the NET rankings have been used in women's basketball.

Starting this season, the metric will slim down to just two components, rather than the previous five. The two remaining components are an adjusted net efficiency rating and the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home. Win percentage, adjusted win percentage and scoring margin are no longer used in the NET rankings.


https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-me ... season?amp

[ramster]

[ramster]

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[steveystuds06]

We are 83 overall

Quad 1 games- 0-1
Quad 2 games- 0-0
Quad 3 games -4-1
Quad 4 games - 2-1

[bigappleram]

Sorry but I'm automatically discounting any metric that has us 5 spots ahead of Bonnies.
WTF

[Blue Man]

Sorry but I'm automatically discounting any metric that has us 5 spots ahead of Bonnies.
WTF

I mean this is THE metric though. But I agree.

It's imperfect (they all are), but it gets more accurate as time goes on.

[theblueram]

Based on the current rankings, we have 2 Quad 1 games in conference. At VCU and At Davidson.

[bigappleram]

Our ranking, literally, makes zero sense.

[steveystuds06]

Bonnies have no road games so far ? That’s what it says so I’m sure that has something to do with it.

Quad 1- 0-0
Quad 2- 2-0
Quad 3- 2-0
Quad 4- 3-1

[ramster]

Sorry but I'm automatically discounting any metric that has us 5 spots ahead of Bonnies.
WTF

I mean this is THE metric though. But I agree.

It's imperfect (they all are), but it gets more accurate as time goes on.

Dan Gavitt and the Google Team that works on this got rid of 3 of the 5 metrics this year. Gone are:

• Win percentage

• adjusted win percentage

• scoring margin

So time will tell how much more, less or the same NET accuracy is compared to past NET and other ratings systems in place.

Id heard Dan Gavitt felt the A10 was not being treated as fairly as the P6 Conferences.

[ramster]

Sorry but I'm automatically discounting any metric that has us 5 spots ahead of Bonnies.
WTF

Bonnie’s 10 point loss to Northern Iowa at Olean was disastrous to any ranking site.
Northern Iowa has only one other win vs Dubuque.

[section(105)]

Our ranking, literally, makes zero sense.

………I would say, it certainly does not square with most peoples eyeball tests……..no?

[SGreenwell]

I'd also note that in addition to the small sample size issues with any metric at this time of year, they aren't providing the "scores" or number for the individual team's NET ranking right now. Meaning, URI at 83 and Bonnies at 88, the difference could be X, where X is a small number, or it could be a multiple of X. It wouldn't surprise me if there is a bunch of volatility in these rankings until deep in the conference play season, when teams are playing one another for the second time, and the sample size of games overall is 20+.

[PeterRamTime]

Sorry but I'm automatically discounting any metric that has us 5 spots ahead of Bonnies.
WTF

Bonnie’s 10 point loss to Northern Iowa at Olean was disastrous to any ranking site.
Northern Iowa has only one other win vs Dubuque.

They hurt themselves big time with that one.

They always have a stinker in the non-conference.

[Blue Man]

Sorry but I'm automatically discounting any metric that has us 5 spots ahead of Bonnies.
WTF

Bonnie’s 10 point loss to Northern Iowa at Olean was disastrous to any ranking site.
Northern Iowa has only one other win vs Dubuque.

They hurt themselves big time with that one.

They always have a stinker in the non-conference.

Combined with UNI losing to Richmond at home.

The A10 doesn’t even do themselves any favors OOC.

[reef]

Based on these early rankings going to be tough for any A10 at larges , usually you want to be top 50 to kind of feel safe

[ramster]

Based on these early rankings going to be tough for any A10 at larges , usually you want to be top 50 to kind of feel safe

It’s a 1 bid league this year. Only way 2 is if some team puts together a much stronger season than any has shown 25 plus percent of the season and that team gets upset in the Championship game.

It all comes down to winning the A10 Tournament.

Next year might be different with Loyola added but not this year.

Just use the next 4 OOC games to prepare for the A10 conference. None of the 4 games are must wins.

[reef]

True maybe Bona goes 15-3 in conf then loses the a10 final then it could be a 2 bid lesgue

[Obadiah]

Based on these early rankings going to be tough for any A10 at larges , usually you want to be top 50 to kind of feel safe

It’s a 1 bid league this year. Only way 2 is if some team puts together a much stronger season than any has shown 25 plus percent of the season and that team gets upset in the Championship game.

It all comes down to winning the A10 Tournament.

Next year might be different with Loyola added but not this year.

Just use the next 4 OOC games to prepare for the A10 conference. None of the 4 games are must wins.

While I agree with your overall view, I do not agree that none of the next four games are must wins. URI must sweep the four to give this team the mental confidence/toughness to face A-10 opponents starting with the Dec. 30 home date with Dayton.

[scine20]

Why would they get rid of winning %? Does winning and losing not matter anymore?

[ramster]

Based on these early rankings going to be tough for any A10 at larges , usually you want to be top 50 to kind of feel safe

It’s a 1 bid league this year. Only way 2 is if some team puts together a much stronger season than any has shown 25 plus percent of the season and that team gets upset in the Championship game.

It all comes down to winning the A10 Tournament.

Next year might be different with Loyola added but not this year.

Just use the next 4 OOC games to prepare for the A10 conference. None of the 4 games are must wins.

While I agree with your overall view, I do not agree that none of the next four games are must wins. URI must sweep the four to give this team the mental confidence/toughness to face A-10 opponents starting with the Dec. 30 home date with Dayton.

From that respect I agree on the confidence piece. And Personally I think they will win all 4 games but don’t think the pressure of absolutely needing to win those 4 games will be there. More important that the players and staff work on what they have learned from the 9 games to date and especially from the 3 losses. Win 4 and we Will head into A10 play at 10-3.

Beat Dayton on our home court Dec 30 then beat LaSalle on our home court Jan 2 then we are 12-3 heading for a tough road game at George Mason.

That’s what I see happening.

[Obadiah]

Why would they get rid of winning %? Does winning and losing not matter anymore?

Because of the impact of Strength of Schedule. If you play lots of cupcakes and achieve a high winning percentage, it doesn't mean you are better than a team who plays a tougher schedule and has a lower winning percentage. You see this clearly in the seeding in the NCAA tournament.

[theblueram]

I think we go 2-2 the next four games. Which is one more win in the OOC than I predicted.

[ramster]

I see 4-0 which is 1 worse than I predicted.

1. ramster 25-6 14-4

[theblueram]

I see 4-0 which is 1 worse than I predicted.

1. ramster 25-6 14-4

I hope you are right Ramster. I'm holding you accountable.

[reef]

I think we go 2-2 the next four games. Which is one more win in the OOC than I predicted.

This board will be in full meltdown mode with 2-2 with this crappy OOC

[ramster]

I think we go 2-2 the next four games. Which is one more win in the OOC than I predicted.

This board will be in full meltdown mode with 2-2 with this crappy OOC

You mean the board is not in full meltdown mode now?
Seriously how can the commentary get any worse?

Bottom line we must win the A10 Championship.

[Rhody Guy]

Predicted 3-1 in the next 4, so far I am perfect-ish. Record is what I thought, but I flipped the second BC game and FGCU.

[Blue Man]

Predicted 3-1 in the next 4, so far I am perfect-ish. Record is what I thought, but I flipped the second BC game and FGCU.

Very sad in year 4 if we're penciling in Q3 and Q4 losses.

If at the press conference in 2018 we said "by year 4 we'll have an OOC schedule comprised of Q3 and Q4 games, with the expectation that we lose 3 of them" we would lose our minds.

NET cares about who you play and who you beat. We're destined to be a Q3 win/loss by the time these rankings come into focus.

[Rhode_Island_Red]

Obvious nepotism hire Dan Gavitt has one job: keep the Cartel from breaking off completely. If he thinks this is what will keep the Cartel happy, so be it.

[steveystuds06]

net.png

Our NET is now at 86 and 5th in the A10...

[ramster]

net.png

Our NET is now at 86 and 5th in the A10...

And only 17 from 2nd place

[Blue Man]

net.png

Our NET is now at 86 and 5th in the A10...

And only 17 from 2nd place

You think that'll fit on a banner in the Ryan Center?

[ramster]

net.png

Our NET is now at 86 and 5th in the A10...

And only 17 from 2nd place

You think that'll fit on a banner in the Ryan Center?

No. I’m letting the season play out to see if we get a banner. It’s close enough for me to not give up hope.

[gorhody89]

I don’t understand how Davidson is at 50, just took a look at their schedule and at first glance looks like they have played a softer schedule than us with losses to SF and NMSU….idk I must be missing something

[Rhody15]

net.png

Our NET is now at 86 and 5th in the A10...

And only 17 from 2nd place

I’m with Ramster here (for once).

The constant negativity is brutal.

I can GUARANTEE that if we finish 5th/7th and somehow have a magical run in the A10 tourney and win it, then get slaughtered in the first NCAA tourney game, posters here will be furious because Cox would then get a big extension.

You KNOW some people would feel like that, even if they wouldn’t admit it.

[steveystuds06]

net.png

Our NET is now at 86 and 5th in the A10...

And only 17 from 2nd place

I’m with Ramster here (for once).

The constant negativity is brutal.

I can GUARANTEE that if we finish 5th/7th and somehow have a magical run in the A10 tourney and win it, then get slaughtered in the first NCAA tourney game, posters here will be furious because Cox would then get a big extension.

You KNOW some people would feel like that, even if they wouldn’t admit it.

What the hell is negative about posting our current NET ranking? That's all I said..

[ramster]

And only 17 from 2nd place

I’m with Ramster here (for once).

The constant negativity is brutal.

I can GUARANTEE that if we finish 5th/7th and somehow have a magical run in the A10 tourney and win it, then get slaughtered in the first NCAA tourney game, posters here will be furious because Cox would then get a big extension.

You KNOW some people would feel like that, even if they wouldn’t admit it.

What the hell is negative about posting our current NET ranking? That's all I said..

Read the responses

[theblueram]

Is it negativity or sarcasm? I saw sarcasm.

[SGreenwell]

net.png

Our NET is now at 86 and 5th in the A10...

And only 17 from 2nd place

I’m with Ramster here (for once).

The constant negativity is brutal.

I can GUARANTEE that if we finish 5th/7th and somehow have a magical run in the A10 tourney and win it, then get slaughtered in the first NCAA tourney game, posters here will be furious because Cox would then get a big extension.

You KNOW some people would feel like that, even if they wouldn’t admit it.

Heck, I'd be fine with that, because while the regular season finish wouldn't be impressive, that kind of performance in a tournament setting -is- a sign of good coaching! If you look at winners from the past 10 years, none of them were bad teams. I'd feel a lot more reassured, unless it was some incredibly flukey finish. (i.e. If URI won because of severe injuries to the teams they were playing.)

[Rhody15]

And only 17 from 2nd place

I’m with Ramster here (for once).

The constant negativity is brutal.

I can GUARANTEE that if we finish 5th/7th and somehow have a magical run in the A10 tourney and win it, then get slaughtered in the first NCAA tourney game, posters here will be furious because Cox would then get a big extension.

You KNOW some people would feel like that, even if they wouldn’t admit it.

Heck, I'd be fine with that, because while the regular season finish wouldn't be impressive, that kind of performance in a tournament setting -is- a sign of good coaching! If you look at winners from the past 10 years, none of them were bad teams. I'd feel a lot more reassured, unless it was some incredibly flukey finish. (i.e. If URI won because of severe injuries to the teams they were playing.)

Everyone *should* be fine with that, but there’d definitely be some who hate that result, because they just choose to hate everything.

[steveystuds06]

And only 17 from 2nd place

I’m with Ramster here (for once).

The constant negativity is brutal.

I can GUARANTEE that if we finish 5th/7th and somehow have a magical run in the A10 tourney and win it, then get slaughtered in the first NCAA tourney game, posters here will be furious because Cox would then get a big extension.

You KNOW some people would feel like that, even if they wouldn’t admit it.

Heck, I'd be fine with that, because while the regular season finish wouldn't be impressive, that kind of performance in a tournament setting -is- a sign of good coaching! If you look at winners from the past 10 years, none of them were bad teams. I'd feel a lot more reassured, unless it was some incredibly flukey finish. (i.e. If URI won because of severe injuries to the teams they were playing.)

Agreed. The goal is a bid. If Cox gets us there, then he deserves an extension.

[theblueram]

Yup, NCAA or Bust.

[Blue Man]

Yeah why the strawman? Like we'd all be thrilled with a bid. None of us have seen anything to think we'll come anywhere close.

Certainly Cox would deserve an extension, as he'd have figured it out and done what was expected. I'm just in the camp of that being slightly more likely than me winning megamillions tonight.

[Jersey77]

I don’t understand how Davidson is at 50, just took a look at their schedule and at first glance looks like they have played a softer schedule than us with losses to SF and NMSU….idk I must be missing something

Yes, you are missing something.
Davidson losing at San Francisco (10-0) and a very good/talented New Mexico State team (favored to win the WAC) and well coached by Chris Jans is much better than our loss to FGCU and underperforming Tulsa for that matter.

[gorhody89]

I don’t understand how Davidson is at 50, just took a look at their schedule and at first glance looks like they have played a softer schedule than us with losses to SF and NMSU….idk I must be missing something

Yes, you are missing something.
Davidson losing at San Francisco (10-0) and a very good/talented New Mexico State team (favored to win the WAC) and well coached by Chris Jans is much better than our loss to FGCU and underperforming Tulsa for that matter.

Well that makes more sense, had no idea SF was undefeated…

[NYGFan_Section208]

And only 17 from 2nd place

I’m with Ramster here (for once).

The constant negativity is brutal.

I can GUARANTEE that if we finish 5th/7th and somehow have a magical run in the A10 tourney and win it, then get slaughtered in the first NCAA tourney game, posters here will be furious because Cox would then get a big extension.

You KNOW some people would feel like that, even if they wouldn’t admit it.

Heck, I'd be fine with that, because while the regular season finish wouldn't be impressive, that kind of performance in a tournament setting -is- a sign of good coaching! If you look at winners from the past 10 years, none of them were bad teams. I'd feel a lot more reassured, unless it was some incredibly flukey finish. (i.e. If URI won because of severe injuries to the teams they were playing.)

Magical run in the A10T is always a good time time no matter how you slice it.

[ElmCityRhody]

I am down on Cox but never would I wish against a ncaa berth

I wish him luck in that respect

[Blue Man]

I’m with Ramster here (for once).

The constant negativity is brutal.

I can GUARANTEE that if we finish 5th/7th and somehow have a magical run in the A10 tourney and win it, then get slaughtered in the first NCAA tourney game, posters here will be furious because Cox would then get a big extension.

You KNOW some people would feel like that, even if they wouldn’t admit it.

Heck, I'd be fine with that, because while the regular season finish wouldn't be impressive, that kind of performance in a tournament setting -is- a sign of good coaching! If you look at winners from the past 10 years, none of them were bad teams. I'd feel a lot more reassured, unless it was some incredibly flukey finish. (i.e. If URI won because of severe injuries to the teams they were playing.)

Everyone *should* be fine with that, but there’d definitely be some who hate that result, because they just choose to hate everything.

I thought about this some more - yes, the goal is an NCAA. I know right now I'm rooting for suck so that the coaching decision becomes clear, but come March 10th I'll be Michael Scott ready to get hurt again because we'll actually have a chance to dance. Right now our at-large bid is dead. Come March we'll have a new shot at life. I'll be ecstatic. As will everyone. We're URI fans. NCAA/A10 champs is the goal.

As it pertains to Cox, in your scenario of limping in to the postseason and catching fire - yes he'll deserve an extension, but how long will be based on the context of that bid.

Like, if we turn it around, and Cox corrects everything that he's been doing wrong (robotic substitutions, minutes promised, game management, preparation, adjustments, etc), and we become a well-coached/good team? Give that man another 4-5 because he figured it out. He'll have done what all of us have been hoping for. He'll have become a good coach who can self-improve and get the best out of his team.

But if we go like 8-10 in conference, with the same coaching issues - but come tourney time Ish Leggett drops 40 every night shooting 70% from 3 to will us into the tourney? We'll still be ecstatic and it will be amazing - but I wouldn't give Cox that 4-5 year extension. I think you give him the two and see if he can actually become a good coach over that time.

But there's no shortage of examples in sports where hitting the goal doesn't mean your coach/manager is the right guy for the job. Sox in '13/14. No one would say John Farrell was a good manager. In fact, everything he did was the opposite of what the smart thing to do was. That '13 squad was a team of destiny. Then they came back to earth next season and fired Farrell.

Tim Tebow took a crap Broncos team to the playoffs, upset the Steelers and made the divisional. The Broncos still moved on from him next season.

Kevin Ollie won a national title in 2014, a conference title in 2016, and UConn was looking to move on from him the next season.

Cox is the most likable coach we've probably ever had at URI. Having met the last 5 on multiple occasions, he's legitimately the best "university representative" type that's been on campus. We would all LOVE him to correct all these missteps and become as good a coach as he is a man.

After 3+ years of stagnant development from his chair, and an overall decline in the program's direction - I just don't see it happening.

[ramster]

NET At the URI halfway point
Monday January 17

URI is 6th at 95

• VCU took a huge drop from 50 on Friday having lost by 20 @ St Bonaventure. Today down to 69.

• URI moved up to 95 from 101 on Friday

• St Bonaventure moved up from 110 to 92

• 2nd best A10 Team is St Louis at 67

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