2019-20 Bracketology

[PeterRamTime]

One minuscule thing to add.

That loss is a quad 2.

Our win over them is one slot away from becoming a quad 2 win.

Anything helps.

We just gotta hope Fatts doesnt have anymore of those types of games and we play well again. If we do we will be fine.

[TruePoint]

I think with 4 more wins between now and when we leave Brooklyn, we are more likely than not to make the tournament but not a lead pipe lock. I want to be a lead pipe lock, so that’s why I frame it that way.

[RhodyRam86]

One minuscule thing to add.

That loss is a quad 2.

Our win over them is one slot away from becoming a quad 2 win.

Anything helps.

We just gotta hope Fatts doesnt have anymore of those types of games and we play well again. If we do we will be fine.

the loss yesterday is also one slot away from becoming a Q1 loss. Davidson losing to St. Joe's hurt.

[spar]

I am still really mad about yesterday’s game, but calm enough now to re-engage this discussion in a rational way. Before yesterday, URI had to win 5 games between then and when they leave Brooklyn to make the NCAA tournament. Today, they have to win 5 games before they leave Brooklyn to make the NCAA tournament, but they have one less opportunity to get one.

We’re still in OK position, but we squandered a very good chance to get a helpful win. Things aren’t as good as they were 24 hours ago, but we aren’t dead yet.

I’m not sure we are in a OK position if you feel we need 5 wins. You are talking sweeping the last 4 games and winning one in A-10 tourney or lose to Dayton only and get to A-10 finals. It feels like less than 50% chance we do either of the two.

There he is, Mr. Positivity! You and Rhody15 must be brothers.

[RamStock]

I am still really mad about yesterday’s game, but calm enough now to re-engage this discussion in a rational way. Before yesterday, URI had to win 5 games between then and when they leave Brooklyn to make the NCAA tournament. Today, they have to win 5 games before they leave Brooklyn to make the NCAA tournament, but they have one less opportunity to get one.

We’re still in OK position, but we squandered a very good chance to get a helpful win. Things aren’t as good as they were 24 hours ago, but we aren’t dead yet.

I’m not sure we are in a OK position if you feel we need 5 wins. You are talking sweeping the last 4 games and winning one in A-10 tourney or lose to Dayton only and get to A-10 finals. It feels like less than 50% chance we do either of the two.

There he is, Mr. Positivity! You and Rhody15 must be brothers.

I’m talking about the reality of a tourney bid. It is a little different than bashing a kid that may have injury concerns that we don’t know about and is trying his best

[Rhody15]

Safely in Lunardi's bracket, and still listed on the "Should be In" section of Bubble Watch.

[BlackDogRants]

On Twitter Seth Davis was asked about Rhode Island and their at-large hopes... His response was basically unless they beat Dayton they will not be receiving an at-large. I responded that I wholeheartedly agree with him. I am basically repeating my Twitter post... but the Davidson loss WAS a big deal. If I were on the fence about URI and them being a tournament caliber team, if I had a vote on the committee - I needed to see a win there. Davidson was 13-12. I dont care what their story is, I dont care what quadrants, NETs, Kenpoms... whatever... Davidson isn't even in the tournament conversation, Rhode Island is, and therefore you SHOULD be winning those games if you want to be considered.

Now take a step back, put your metrics away... What have we done that was so special to warrant being a top team in the country come Selection Sunday? We had tough schedule - sure, but didn't win anything to truly benefit from it. We didn't walk away with that signature win. The VCU wins aren't carrying nearly the same weight anymore. The Alabama win? OK. Sure. I guess. The most impressive win looking back (metrics aside) - honestly - Providence. If we played Providence tomorrow - could we beat them again? Im going to say probably not.

What about the other company we claim to be in? Look at some of the bubble teams per Lunardi (Oklahoma, USC, Providence, NC State, Stanford, UCLA), look at the other teams on the projected 9-11 seed line per Lunardi (Michigan, BYU, Florida, St. Mary's)... Are we at level? I think we would have trouble with most, if not all, of those teams. Not to mention all those teams listed have at least one, if not more, signature wins over a better ranked opponents. We do not.

I think we have to win out now... Have to beat Dayton. Thats the only way we grab an at-large. I love this team and I love this school, and I will be a fan until the day I die. I know I am always a negative nancy and critical - its my nature with every sports team I love (lol) - but this season its time to be real and stop hanging on to these insane algorithms thinking we are something we are not.

Fingers crossed I eat every one of these words and we are dancing in a couple weeks!

[PeterRamTime]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

We didnt lose any ground in bracketville. Still 6th in.

We would have made significant ground had we beat Davidson, since almost every other bubble team lost.

What those who are in the "must win out" camp dont understand is that all those bubble teams are wildly inconsistent and keep racking up losses.

We will be fine if we win 3 out of 4, because the majority of those bubble teams are going to lose more than just one game and it wouldn't be to someone like Dayton whose metrics are perfect as a loss to them wouldn't move us any which way.

Alabama and Providence keep winning and that has helped us a good deal.

There is a lot of basketball left to be played, we are still in great position and it's up to us to get better in practice and beat Fordham on wednesday.

[RhodyRam86]

i agree with you BlackDog. no wins over AP top 40. Best wins are at home vs NET #40 Alabama and #48 Providence. These are not signature wins and Providence is a much better team today than they were in December. If i were on the committee i would take PC's resume over ours despite their Q3 and Q4 losses. Those were earlier in the year. Had they come subsequent to all their Q1 wins i would feel differently. PC has beaten more ranked teams in the last 6 weeks than we've beaten in the last...i don't know many years! and yes...i know they've had more opportunities, but c'mon...

i don't believe in the NET. i think there have to be flaws...though i suppose that would be the case with any system. people have pointed out teams that in the past that had high RPIs only to be snubbed on Selection Sunday. Without beating Dayton, i feel we are in that category.

i've felt we need to go 15-3 in conference since the brown loss and still do. we've won the games we were supposed to win and one that we weren't (at VCU which isn't so great anymore). I've been saying all along, we needed to go 2-2 in the 2nd VCU game, at Davidson and 2 Dayton games and must win every other game. Nothing has changed...to this point we've won every other game, but are only 1-2 in those select games. Dayton is now a MUST WIN.

caveat...lose to St. Louis, but beat Dayton and get to A10 finals gets it done too.

[PeterRamTime]

i agree with you BlackDog. no wins over AP top 40. Best wins are at home vs NET #40 Alabama and #48 Providence. These are not signature wins and Providence is a much better team today than they were in December. If i were on the committee i would take PC's resume over ours despite their Q3 and Q4 losses. Those were earlier in the year. Had they come subsequent to all their Q1 wins i would feel differently. PC has beaten more ranked teams in the last 6 weeks than we've beaten in the last...i don't know many years! and yes...i know they've had more opportunities, but c'mon...

i don't believe in the NET. i think there have to be flaws...though i suppose that would be the case with any system. people have pointed out teams that in the past that had high RPIs only to be snubbed on Selection Sunday. Without beating Dayton, i feel we are in that category.

i've felt we need to go 15-3 in conference since the brown loss and still do. we've won the games we were supposed to win and one that we weren't (at VCU which isn't so great anymore). I've been saying all along, we needed to go 2-2 in the 2nd VCU game, at Davidson and 2 Dayton games and must win every other game. Nothing has changed...to this point we've won every other game, but are only 1-2 in those select games. Dayton is now a MUST WIN.

caveat...lose to St. Louis, but beat Dayton and get to A10 finals gets it done too.

Lose to Saint Louis and beat Dayton we would probably only need to win our quarterfinal game to be positive.

A top 5 win goes A LONG way.

We beat Dayton and lose to SLU that puts us at 2 quad1's and 5 to 6 quad2's going into the A-10 tourney.

A quarterfinal win is likely another Q2 and by that point our NET will be in the low 30's and a loss in the semis is probably a Q1 loss.

Also it doesnt matter when we beat PC. The stronger they get the better our win against them is.

[RhodyRam86]

i agree with you BlackDog. no wins over AP top 40. Best wins are at home vs NET #40 Alabama and #48 Providence. These are not signature wins and Providence is a much better team today than they were in December. If i were on the committee i would take PC's resume over ours despite their Q3 and Q4 losses. Those were earlier in the year. Had they come subsequent to all their Q1 wins i would feel differently. PC has beaten more ranked teams in the last 6 weeks than we've beaten in the last...i don't know many years! and yes...i know they've had more opportunities, but c'mon...

i don't believe in the NET. i think there have to be flaws...though i suppose that would be the case with any system. people have pointed out teams that in the past that had high RPIs only to be snubbed on Selection Sunday. Without beating Dayton, i feel we are in that category.

i've felt we need to go 15-3 in conference since the brown loss and still do. we've won the games we were supposed to win and one that we weren't (at VCU which isn't so great anymore). I've been saying all along, we needed to go 2-2 in the 2nd VCU game, at Davidson and 2 Dayton games and must win every other game. Nothing has changed...to this point we've won every other game, but are only 1-2 in those select games. Dayton is now a MUST WIN.

caveat...lose to St. Louis, but beat Dayton and get to A10 finals gets it done too.

Lose to Saint Louis and beat Dayton we would probably only need to win our quarterfinal game to be positive.

A top 5 win goes A LONG way.

We beat Dayton and lose to SLU that puts us at 2 quad1's and 5 to 6 quad2's going into the A-10 tourney.

A quarterfinal win is likely another Q2 and by that point our NET will be in the low 30's and a loss in the semis is probably a Q1 loss.

Also it doesnt matter when we beat PC. The stronger they get the better our win against them is.

maybe...but the hiccup in your scenario could be if richmond wins out and beats us in the A10 semis. Or we lose to someone else in the semis and that team goes on to win it all.

[ramster]

i agree with you BlackDog. no wins over AP top 40. Best wins are at home vs NET #40 Alabama and #48 Providence. These are not signature wins and Providence is a much better team today than they were in December. If i were on the committee i would take PC's resume over ours despite their Q3 and Q4 losses. Those were earlier in the year. Had they come subsequent to all their Q1 wins i would feel differently. PC has beaten more ranked teams in the last 6 weeks than we've beaten in the last...i don't know many years! and yes...i know they've had more opportunities, but c'mon...

i don't believe in the NET. i think there have to be flaws...though i suppose that would be the case with any system. people have pointed out teams that in the past that had high RPIs only to be snubbed on Selection Sunday. Without beating Dayton, i feel we are in that category.

i've felt we need to go 15-3 in conference since the brown loss and still do. we've won the games we were supposed to win and one that we weren't (at VCU which isn't so great anymore). I've been saying all along, we needed to go 2-2 in the 2nd VCU game, at Davidson and 2 Dayton games and must win every other game. Nothing has changed...to this point we've won every other game, but are only 1-2 in those select games. Dayton is now a MUST WIN.

caveat...lose to St. Louis, but beat Dayton and get to A10 finals gets it done too.

Lose to Saint Louis and beat Dayton we would probably only need to win our quarterfinal game to be positive.

A top 5 win goes A LONG way.

We beat Dayton and lose to SLU that puts us at 2 quad1's and 5 to 6 quad2's going into the A-10 tourney.

A quarterfinal win is likely another Q2 and by that point our NET will be in the low 30's and a loss in the semis is probably a Q1 loss.

Also it doesnt matter when we beat PC. The stronger they get the better our win against them is.

maybe...but the hiccup in your scenario could be if richmond wins out and beats us in the A10 semis. Or we lose to someone else in the semis and that team goes on to win it all.

Full 5 minute discussion:

[Section104]

I think Bill Koch is spot on with what he’s saying.

[PeterRamTime]

Yep Bill is correct.

Beating Fordham, SLU, UMass at the very least will keep them where they are now. A win in brooklyn probably solidifies it.

If this loss to Davidson wasnt crushing and didnt really move us anywhere. Losing to the second best team in the country and winning 3 games one of them a Q2 very likely does nothing to diminish our current standing in the field. It points more likely towards us being more in than out compared to today.

[ramster]

Simple. Forget NET, quad this, quad that what everyone else is doing....as Bill Koch said...
@ Fordham - Must win
St Louis - Must win
Dayton - Loss
@ UMASS / Must win
1st A10 Tournament Game - Must Win

Only if we beat Dayton can we afford a loss to Fordham, St Louis or UMASS.

We may look back at this reason and greatly regret the Davidson loss.

[ramster]

URI and PC Chances Discussed

[spar]

I’m not sure we are in a OK position if you feel we need 5 wins. You are talking sweeping the last 4 games and winning one in A-10 tourney or lose to Dayton only and get to A-10 finals. It feels like less than 50% chance we do either of the two.

There he is, Mr. Positivity! You and Rhody15 must be brothers.

I’m talking about the reality of a tourney bid. It is a little different than bashing a kid that may have injury concerns that we don’t know about and is trying his best

Fair enough. I'll stop giving you a hard time. We all want the same damn thing here. No more slip-ups to anyone not named Dayton. And if we really want to put a stamp on things, let's beat f'n Dayton and give this fan base and program a historic win.

[giovanni]

[URI2006_Andy]

Looking back to last year, 8 teams ranked in the top 50 NET didn’t make it. One theme that stood out last year for those teams was:

Overall record minus Quad 4 wins:

33 NC State 12-11
35 Clemson 13-13
38 Texas 13-16
41 Furman 6-7
46 Memphis 11-13
48 Nebraska 13-16
49 Lipscomb 6-7
50 Penn State 12-18

In 2020, URI is 13-7 in this category which is good.

2020 teams that could be in danger:

34 Rutgers 10-10
35 Illinois 9-9
36 Purdue 9-14
40 Alabama 12-12
42 Minnesota 8-13
48 Providence 11-12
50 Liberty 4-3

[reef]

Rutgers and Illini are pretty safe there the rest of those are bubble teams

[mstyles22]

Looking back to last year, 8 teams ranked in the top 50 NET didn’t make it. One theme that stood out last year for those teams was:

Overall record minus Quad 4 wins:

33 NC State 12-11
35 Clemson 13-13
38 Texas 13-16
41 Furman 6-7
46 Memphis 11-13
48 Nebraska 13-16
49 Lipscomb 6-7
50 Penn State 12-18

In 2020, URI is 13-7 in this category which is good.

2020 teams that could be in danger:

34 Rutgers 10-10
35 Illinois 9-9
36 Purdue 9-14
40 Alabama 12-12
42 Minnesota 8-13
48 Providence 11-12
50 Liberty 4-3

Very good info. And basically encompasses what I was trying to explain to a buddy of mine before re: Rhody's resume.

One bad loss, no wins that will jump out at you, but a very businesslike profile.

[eli#10]

I disagree about Rutgers. They played 1 true road game without any neutral court OOC games. In other words 10 of 11 OOC games were played at home. Also so far they have not won a road game.

[rhodylaw]

Simple. Forget NET, quad this, quad that what everyone else is doing....as Bill Koch said...
@ Fordham - Must win
St Louis - Must win
Dayton - Loss
@ UMASS / Must win
1st A10 Tournament Game - Must Win

Only if we beat Dayton can we afford a loss to Fordham, St Louis or UMASS.

We may look back at this reason and greatly regret the Davidson loss.

If we don’t make the tourney it will not be because of the Davidson game. It will be the Brown game and the missed opportunity at WVU. I was one of the more optimistic on the predictions with only 7 losses and we have yet to lose a game that I hadn’t thought was a game we may lose except Brown.

[Rhodysk]

I love seeing us in all the brackets but I can’t believe Pee Cee either in or in the play in game. The big east is so overrated.

Could you imagine a play in game against them? If that happens.
OH MY GOODNESS!

[woodennickel1]

I disagree about Rutgers. They played 1 true road game without any neutral court OOC games. In other words 10 of 11 OOC games were played at home. Also so far they have not won a road game.

Rutgers has one road win at Nebraska.

[reef]

You may be right about Rutgers 3 tough games left if they lose those they may be on the outside looking in

[steviep123]

Simple. Forget NET, quad this, quad that what everyone else is doing....as Bill Koch said...
@ Fordham - Must win
St Louis - Must win
Dayton - Loss
@ UMASS / Must win
1st A10 Tournament Game - Must Win

Only if we beat Dayton can we afford a loss to Fordham, St Louis or UMASS.

We may look back at this reason and greatly regret the Davidson loss.

If we don’t make the tourney it will not be because of the Davidson game. It will be the Brown game and the missed opportunity at WVU. I was one of the more optimistic on the predictions with only 7 losses and we have yet to lose a game that I hadn’t thought was a game we may lose except Brown.

I have to agree with this. In the 6 games with Davidson/Dayton/VCU, I had us down for splitting them, winning the 3 home games vs. the 3 and losing the 3 road games. So far with the win at VCU they are a head of the game. I thought they'd go 8-4 non conference and 14-4 in the A10 for 22-8 overall. While they did go 8-4 as predicted, I didn't have them losing to Brown. I had them losing to either PC or Alabama. I thought PC would have played all season as they are now, and thought there was a 50/50 chance we'd lose one of those two games. When we won both, I was thrilled for them to be a game ahead of predicted, which went to crap when they lost to Brown. I also didn't have them losing to Richmond. I figured the 14-4 would be 3 road losses do Dayton, Davidson, and VCU, plus one other random road loss. The win at VCU put them ahead of schedule in that front, but the loss to Richmond and Brown negated that, which did make the game vs. Davidson more important than it would have been, though not devastating to lose. Now for my prediction to be true, they need to go 3-1, hopefully taking care of business against Fordham, SLU and UMass, but I'd be thrilled to be wrong in them winning the last four to be 15-3/23-7.

Beat Fordham.

[TruePoint]

Simple. Forget NET, quad this, quad that what everyone else is doing....as Bill Koch said...
@ Fordham - Must win
St Louis - Must win
Dayton - Loss
@ UMASS / Must win
1st A10 Tournament Game - Must Win

Only if we beat Dayton can we afford a loss to Fordham, St Louis or UMASS.

We may look back at this reason and greatly regret the Davidson loss.

If we don’t make the tourney it will not be because of the Davidson game. It will be the Brown game and the missed opportunity at WVU. I was one of the more optimistic on the predictions with only 7 losses and we have yet to lose a game that I hadn’t thought was a game we may lose except Brown.

Your last point has some validity, but preseason expectations don’t matter as much as the opportunities that you’re presented during the course of the season and don’t totally account for the stakes, which are dynamic.

As bad as the effort in the Brown game, as much as the WVU game was a great opportunity, and as humiliating as it was to lose to soft-ass Richmond in our own building, none of those games represented as good of a chance to actually win the game. Despite a slow start, URI had the Davidson game won on several separate occasions and had several other chances to win it, and failed to close out and/or make the plays to win the game in every single one of those instances. And a win would have effectively punched our ticket. It was as big and as costly of a blown opportunity as this program has had in quite some time - maybe since the Oregon loss in 2017 or the Davidson home loss in 2015 - and it really shouldn’t be downplayed or glossed over.

Yes, it’s embarrassing to lose to Brown or Richmond in your building. Yes, WVU would have been a better win on the resume. But this was the only game of that bunch where we had multiple leads late and crumbled, and the stakes were higher in this game than in any of those other games just based on the calendar alone. Considering the stakes and the way the game actually played out, losing the game was a complete disaster.

[TruePoint]

Just want to add to the above, because reading it back it seems pretty negative:

All of the above is true, but yet the season is not over. We are alive. Kill Fordham tomorrow. Take care of SLU this weekend and everyone get ready to mount up for the game next Wednesday - which could be the biggest game in the history of the building with a LOT on the line. I don’t want to be doom and gloom, just want to be honest about what that Davidson game was and what it means. Still a lot of basketball ahead.

[steviep123]

Simple. Forget NET, quad this, quad that what everyone else is doing....as Bill Koch said...
@ Fordham - Must win
St Louis - Must win
Dayton - Loss
@ UMASS / Must win
1st A10 Tournament Game - Must Win

Only if we beat Dayton can we afford a loss to Fordham, St Louis or UMASS.

We may look back at this reason and greatly regret the Davidson loss.

If we don’t make the tourney it will not be because of the Davidson game. It will be the Brown game and the missed opportunity at WVU. I was one of the more optimistic on the predictions with only 7 losses and we have yet to lose a game that I hadn’t thought was a game we may lose except Brown.

Your last point has some validity, but preseason expectations don’t matter as much as the opportunities that you’re presented during the course of the season and don’t totally account for the stakes, which are dynamic.

As bad as the effort in the Brown game, as much as the WVU game was a great opportunity, and as humiliating as it was to lose to soft-ass Richmond in our own building, none of those games represented as good of a chance to actually win the game. Despite a slow start, URI had the Davidson game won on several separate occasions and had several other chances to win it, and failed to close out and/or make the plays to win the game in every single one of those instances. And a win would have effectively punched our ticket. It was as big and as costly of a blown opportunity as this program has had in quite some time - maybe since the Oregon loss in 2017 or the Davidson home loss in 2015 - and it really shouldn’t be downplayed or glossed over.

Yes, it’s embarrassing to lose to Brown or Richmond in your building. Yes, WVU would have been a better win on the resume. But this was the only game of that bunch where we had multiple leads late and crumbled, and the stakes were higher in this game than in any of those other games just based on the calendar alone. Considering the stakes and the way the game actually played out, losing the game was a complete disaster.

I have to agree with most of this. While I won't say they had it won (I think the biggest lead was 3), they did have opportunities late in regulation and in OT to expand that 3 point lead to 5 or 7 and be in position to put it away. While a win would not have punched a ticket (losses to more than one of Fordham/SLU/UMass would have undone a win at Davidson), it would give us much more margin for error and would have allowed for us to have another stumble. Now the only game that isn't a must win at this point is Dayton. We absolutely must win the rest.

[spar]

I sure hope Cox is finding a way to keep these kids somewhat loose. The last thing we need to do in any of these games is to be playing tight. We're all obviously feeling the pressure, so you know these kids are as well. Think if we can take care of business with minimal nail-biting tomorrow night, they can hopefully relax a bit heading into the home matchup with St Loius. Take care of business in that one as well and we should be primed up nice for Dayton. And getting the rematch in our building is huge. Then again, it's senior night and we all know what can happen there when emotions are running high, but not even going there yet. Just beat f'n Fordhamn please!!

[PeterRamTime]

I think we all might underestimate how much we have relied on Fatts playing at a very high level.

We are used to him impacting the game at a high level. Making multiple threes, fast break layups, etc.

He started making the winning plays we needed him to make at the end of the game. If he hadn't fouled out, there is no doubt in my mind we come out of that game on top. Fatts wouldn't have stepped out of bounds, he was starting to get on a roll making threes.

Now I think we should give the rest of the team credit for keeping us afloat while Fatts was struggling against a pretty good team. Its almost impressive and a sign of some growth that we were able to stick it out and not completely fall apart.

Just hope that they can step it up more if Fatts is to have another off night.

[adam914]

Update from Sports Illustrated:

Rhode Island (19–7, NET: 37, SOS: 57, Q1: 1–4, Q2: 5–2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)
After an abysmal game to that point (1 for 14 from the field), Fatts Russell tried to rescue the Rams against Davidson, hitting a triple with five seconds left to send it to overtime. Unfortunately, URI did not use that second life to its fullest, falling to the squad we affectionately refer to as “Dave” by two in OT, and the Rams’ positioning remains quite precarious. As long as Dayton remains on the schedule (March 4 in Kingston), though, the Rams have plenty of hope to firm up their résumé. –JR

https://www.si.com/college/2020/02/25/n ... ss-bracket

[Rhody15]

Dropped to Last Four Byes on Lunardi’s bracket.

[steviep123]

From the Athletic:

Last but not least: Press F to pay respects to VCU. The veteran-laden, preseason top-25, defending conference champion Rams were blown out Friday at Saint Louis, their fourth straight loss and one that probably ended their at-large hopes — another disappointing night in a surprisingly difficult season.

Locks: Gonzaga, Dayton, San Diego State, BYU
Should be in: Saint Mary’s
Work to do: Rhode Island, Utah State, East Tennessee State, Northern Iowa, Richmond, Liberty

Rhode Island (19-7, 11-3; NET: 37, SOS: 54): Losing at Davidson in overtime is not a crime. It’s not even that big of a deal. But Saturday’s result does highlight the issue with this résumé: As long as the Rams are racking up wins, they’re fine, but there’s not enough of a high-end core here to take too many more losses and feel good about getting in the field. The only Q1 win came at VCU. That doesn’t look so hot anymore. And these Rams still have to avoid disaster at Fordham and UMass before the regular season is done.

Richmond (20-7, 10-4; NET: 49, SOS: 78): We wouldn’t have had Richmond safely in our bracket last week; that remains the case after Saturday’s loss at St. Bonaventure. The Reilly Center is not the worst place for a bubble hopeful to pick up a loss. The Bonnies are in the low 100s in the NET, and at least fall in Quadrant 2. But it’s obviously not an ideal development for one of the Atlantic 10’s pleasant surprises. (Unless, of course, you’re a VCU fan, for whom the Spiders’ presence on this page, and your absence, must be doubly annoying.)

Full Article

I'm pretty sure Rhody was listed as Should Be In with St. Mary's last week, so that makes the Davidson loss hurt a bit more.

[theblueram]

I agree with NBC assessment:

ATLANTIC 10 BUBBLE WATCH
TOP 9: Dayton (NBC: 2)

RHODE ISLAND (NET: 38, NBC: 10): Disaster almost struck for the Rams on Wednesday, as they went into Fordham (277) and barely avoided what would have been a devastating loss. They’re now 20-7 overall with just one Quad 1 win, but they are 6-6 against the top two Quads. The loss to Brown (218) is ugly, but as long as URI avoids the landmines on their schedule, I think they can get an at-large even with a loss to Dayton (5) at home in March.

RICHMOND (NET: 50, NBC: First four out): The Spiders avoided disaster at George Washington (189) on Wednesday. Richmond had their five-game winning streak snapped on the road against St. Bonaventure (113), which is not a bad loss in real life but is a bad loss on an NCAA tournament resume. The Spiders only have one truly terrible loss to their name — Radford (162) got them on a neutral court — but with only three Quad 1 wins and a 4-6 record against the top two Quads, their margin for error is completely gone.

[rhodyruckus]

There is a path where Richmond wins out, we take care of everyone but Dayton, then it is Richmond-URI in the semifinal. By the day before the selection show, my hope is we are fairly certain both teams are in and it means nothing, but this game could also turn into "loser leaves town" if Richmond's numbers are closer to Rhody's by then...

[Rhodymob05]

We avoided the largest mine left on the schedule. Our NET should only improve from here.

[ramster]

There is a path where Richmond wins out, we take care of everyone but Dayton, then it is Richmond-URI in the semifinal. By the day before the selection show, my hope is we are fairly certain both teams are in and it means nothing, but this game could also turn into "loser leaves town" if Richmond's numbers are closer to Rhody's by then...

I was thinking the same thing last night.

Dayton 1-seed
URI 2-seed
Richmond 3-seed
Saint Louis or anyone else 4-seed

Means URI or Richmond will play Dayton in Championship

If Richmond beats URI that gives URI 2 losses vs Richmond

Even if URI beats SLU, loses to Dayton, beats UMASS and wins Quarterfinal games but loses in Semi Final to Richmond my guess is only 2 from A10 go.

I think URI needs SLU, UMASS, Q-Final and Semi-Final wins to get in. A Tall Task but doable.

[rhodyruckus]

There is a path where Richmond wins out, we take care of everyone but Dayton, then it is Richmond-URI in the semifinal. By the day before the selection show, my hope is we are fairly certain both teams are in and it means nothing, but this game could also turn into "loser leaves town" if Richmond's numbers are closer to Rhody's by then...

I was thinking the same thing last night.

Dayton 1-seed
URI 2-seed
Richmond 3-seed
Saint Louis or anyone else 4-seed

Means URI or Richmond will play Dayton in Championship

If Richmond beats URI that gives URI 2 losses vs Richmond

Even if URI beats SLU, loses to Dayton, beats UMASS and wins Quarterfinal games but loses in Semi Final to Richmond my guess is only 2 from A10 go.

I think URI needs SLU, UMASS, Q-Final and Semi-Final wins to get in. A Tall Task but doable.

Yup, it is a tight spot: do I root for Richmond to get to the semis so we could at the very least have another "quality loss" at the risk of them supplanting our bid, or do I want Richmond to get upset so we have an easier matchup?

In terms of the committee politics, I think Richmond getting upset works out slightly better, but really it is tough for me to envision losing the semi and making it in either case, as a loss against a weaker team than Richmond could also be held against us. (Differently than I was thinking last week.) The selection committee seems to be locking things in earlier and earlier except for the last like one or two teams, and are they really going to want a range of 1-3 teams coming out of the A10 as a possibility still? I could see them saying a max of 2 teams out of the A10 (Dayton on 1 or 2 line and the Richmond/URI selection on the 10 or 11 line) in order to keep a placeholder for the rest of the bracket.

The only way we probably survive 2 losses to Richmond head-to-head would be countering it with a Dayton win next week. IMO we win that along with SLU and UMass games and we are in, but subject to "the real NCAA first round" in Dayton with a one and done in the conference tourney.

[ramster]

There is a path where Richmond wins out, we take care of everyone but Dayton, then it is Richmond-URI in the semifinal. By the day before the selection show, my hope is we are fairly certain both teams are in and it means nothing, but this game could also turn into "loser leaves town" if Richmond's numbers are closer to Rhody's by then...

I was thinking the same thing last night.

Dayton 1-seed
URI 2-seed
Richmond 3-seed
Saint Louis or anyone else 4-seed

Means URI or Richmond will play Dayton in Championship

If Richmond beats URI that gives URI 2 losses vs Richmond

Even if URI beats SLU, loses to Dayton, beats UMASS and wins Quarterfinal games but loses in Semi Final to Richmond my guess is only 2 from A10 go.

I think URI needs SLU, UMASS, Q-Final and Semi-Final wins to get in. A Tall Task but doable.

Yup, it is a tight spot: do I root for Richmond to get to the semis so we could at the very least have another "quality loss" at the risk of them supplanting our bid, or do I want Richmond to get upset so we have an easier matchup?

In terms of the committee politics, I think Richmond getting upset works out slightly better, but really it is tough for me to envision losing the semi and making it in either case, as a loss against a weaker team than Richmond could also be held against us. (Differently than I was thinking last week.) The selection committee seems to be locking things in earlier and earlier except for the last like one or two teams, and are they really going to want a range of 1-3 teams coming out of the A10 as a possibility still? I could see them saying a max of 2 teams out of the A10 (Dayton on 1 or 2 line and the Richmond/URI selection on the 10 or 11 line) in order to keep a placeholder for the rest of the bracket.

The only way we probably survive 2 losses to Richmond head-to-head would be countering it with a Dayton win next week. IMO we win that along with SLU and UMass games and we are in, but subject to "the real NCAA first round" in Dayton with a one and done in the conference tourney.

agree

[UCH21377]

I don't like the way we match up with Richmond. A better version of Davidson. Rather not see them. There's a good possibility only 2 A10 teams will get in. We need to stay ahead of Richmond.

[reef]

Root like heck for Richmond to lose we are in direct competition with them for a bid

The A10 usually gets screwed by the committee so prepare yourself if we are squarely on the bubble come selection Sunday

[Rhody Sody]

I still think we are 100% in if we win 2 of the next 3 and only win the first game in the a10 tournament. I have a hard time believing that a Dayton loss and Richmond loss at a neutral site is going to prevent us from going to the NCAAT. I guess i am in the minority but i am confident we make it with a 23-9 record. The other teams on the bubble are going to suffer losses(most likely multiple) between now and the end of their conference tournaments. How do they pass us if we only lose to tournament quality teams including #4 in the country?

I guess i am maybe too much of an optimist because i think we beat Dayton next week if everyone is healthy.

[reef]

I still think we are 100% in if we win 2 of the next 3 and only win the first game in the a10 tournament. I have a hard time believing that a Dayton loss and Richmond loss at a neutral site is going to prevent us from going to the NCAAT. I guess i am in the minority but i am confident we make it with a 23-9 record. The other teams on the bubble are going to suffer losses(most likely multiple) between now and the end of their conference tournaments. How do they pass us if we only lose to tournament quality teams including #4 in the country?

I guess i am maybe too much of an optimist because i think we beat Dayton next week if everyone is healthy.

Your scenario will be very close maybe 50-50 . A lot will depend on the bid stealers and it’s possible we won’t have a win over any team in the field assuming PC doesn’t make it ??

[Rhody_NYCT]

I still think we are 100% in if we win 2 of the next 3 and only win the first game in the a10 tournament. I have a hard time believing that a Dayton loss and Richmond loss at a neutral site is going to prevent us from going to the NCAAT. I guess i am in the minority but i am confident we make it with a 23-9 record. The other teams on the bubble are going to suffer losses(most likely multiple) between now and the end of their conference tournaments. How do they pass us if we only lose to tournament quality teams including #4 in the country?

I guess i am maybe too much of an optimist because i think we beat Dayton next week if everyone is healthy.

Your scenario will be very close maybe 50-50 . A lot will depend on the bid stealers and it’s possible we won’t have a win over any team in the field assuming PC doesn’t make it ??

I would say 50-50 at best but good chance we would be one of the first 4 out. If we win 2 of next 3 and only 1 in Brooklyn, then one of the wins would have to be the home game vs Dayton. I highly recommend we win our next 3 games

[theblueram]

I still say the A10 is getting 3 bids this year. Said it at the end of OOC and still say it now.

[reef]

3 is possible but I am going to guess 2

[PeterRamTime]

Good article on us.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2020/2/ ... bble-watch

[JimSidd]

There is a path where Richmond wins out, we take care of everyone but Dayton, then it is Richmond-URI in the semifinal. By the day before the selection show, my hope is we are fairly certain both teams are in and it means nothing, but this game could also turn into "loser leaves town" if Richmond's numbers are closer to Rhody's by then...

I was thinking the same thing last night.

Dayton 1-seed
URI 2-seed
Richmond 3-seed
Saint Louis or anyone else 4-seed

Means URI or Richmond will play Dayton in Championship

If Richmond beats URI that gives URI 2 losses vs Richmond

Even if URI beats SLU, loses to Dayton, beats UMASS and wins Quarterfinal games but loses in Semi Final to Richmond my guess is only 2 from A10 go.

I think URI needs SLU, UMASS, Q-Final and Semi-Final wins to get in. A Tall Task but doable.

I agree with this assessment. I don’t think the A 10 gets three teams: not enough quad 1 opportunities in the league schedule, while the P5 schools have plenty. If a team like St Louis or Davidson gets hot and runs the table in the tournament, I think it could very well be just that team and Dayton in the dance.