Week #16 - Games of Interest

[steviep123]

No you are wrong. PC is not a long shot to make the Tournament, they are on the bubble. As of today URI is in the field but not by much. There are a lot of important games to be played. A lot can and will change.

PC
NET 51
RPI 51
Ken Pom 54
BPI 60
Sagarin 43

URI
NET 31
RPI 18
Ken Pom 43
BPI 52
Sagarin 46

ramster, what facts do you have to support “URI is in the field but not by much” and PC is “on the bubble”? It seems you are insinuating the two teams are close to one another regarding making the Tournament. They are 20 places apart in NET which is the only index used. Bracket Matrix has URI as the 34th team and PC as the 9th team out. There are 12 at large teams after URI so that puts them 22 at large spots ahead of PC based on 116 brackets.

83,

I'm basically reacting to this earlier statement........
The reality right now is that PC is still mathematically alive but is a long shot to make the tournament, and as of today URI would be in the field.

I do not think PC is "a long shot and mathematically alive." I think the way Diallo, Young, White and even Pipkins in spurts are playing that they have a fair to good shot to make the Tournament. Obviously I would not want that
PC plays 4 more games with NET's of 23,13,40,74.
URI plays 5 more games with NET's of 83,275,80,6,159

Depending upon what happens in the next two weeks is huge. The gap of 20 between URI NET 31 and PC NET 51 is quite small compared to the advantage PC has in playing 4 Teams with NETs between 13 and 74 vs URI playing 5 Teams with NETs between 6 and 275

A Loss by URI to Fordham and/or UMASS with both games on the road would be devastating to URIs NET.

PC is now 4th in the BE with a record of (8-6) The BE is ranked the best Conference right now. BE will most definitely put in more than 4 teams
PC with 4 Remaining Games/NET:
Marquette NET 23
@ Villanova NET 13
Xavier NET 40
Depaul NET 74

URI with 5 Remaining Games/NET:
@ Davidson NET 83
@ Fordham NET 275
SLU NET 80
Dayton NET 6
UMASS NET 159

That's exactly why we need to keep winning!

[ramster]

Remaining games for URI, Dayton, Richmond, VCU and PC listed

Includes NET, RPI, SOS, Ken Pom, BPI, Sagarin

Wishful thinking that URI still had RPI since with RPI 18 we would be challenging for a 5-seed.

One ranking site says NCAA still uses/includes RPI SOS on the Team Sheets for Selection Committee

We can I’ll afford to lose to any team not named Dayton.

Green shaded are Rankings of 50 or better, considered stronger candidates for At Large Bids, but not assured.

1FE49BBE-2DCE-404E-8EAC-ABEC614E2D44.png

[steviep123]

Here's the other thing, while it's fun or more likely agonizing to compare URI to PC only in a bubble, the fact is all the bubble teams are competing against each other. I'd say, there's at least 24 teams that could be competing against each other for the last 12 bids. The last 12 in and the first 12 out. Without looking them up and knowing how close they are in NET, between now and Selection Sunday, many of these teams will make their resume more clear (for better or for worse), and cut this down to maybe 4 to 8 teams (last four in, first four out). The likelihood of one bid coming down to between just two specific teams, such as URI vs. PC is probably pretty slim. It is more likely that it will come down to having to choose 3 out of 4 to 5 possible teams. That's why most years there are 2 to 3 teams that have a legitimate beef for being left out that you could say, "Teams X and Y deserve to be in over Teams A and B" and not just "Team X should have been selected over Team Y."

As fans and rivals it's a lot more fun to think that one of us explicitly knocked the other one out (as the committee sort of admitted in 2017 when they said URI winning the A10 knocked PC to the first four - an act I disagreed with and would have chosen Marquette for the first four that year), but mathematically, it's more likely to be something like 3 bids for 5 teams, then 1 for 2.

[TruePoint]

It is not analysis to say that if URI loses to Fordham and UMass and PC wins out that PC could pass URI on the bubble. Assuming in this scenario that URI would have fully imploded and also lost to Dayton and SLU and/or Davidson, at that point URI would definitely be out and PC would definitely be in. There is also probably less than a 1% chance of this happening so what are we even talking about?

PC is mathematically alive - they still control their own destiny with 4 regular season games left. But they also just aren’t that good and it is extremely unlikely that they close 4-0 including a win at Villanova. If they do, hats off to them - they deserve to make the tournament.

URI is safely in the field as of right now. I don’t follow the bracketology stuff as closely as some others here, but it is my understanding that we are in all or nearly all of the brackets being tracked and that we have been positioned well above the cut line.

PC could still rally and make the tournament (which I’ve been point out for close to a month, actually). URI could implode and miss it. Both of these outcomes are possible but not likely, and the probability that both of them happen is so remote that it is not worth wasting a lot of time worrying about it.

[ramster]

My point is to show that the gap between PC and URI is not extraordinarily large.

PC plays teams with strong NET Rankings because the entire BE is well positioned in NET.

URI is at risk because of the poor NET Rankings for Fordham and UMASS - both games are on the road

Richmond is right on our heels only 12 slots back of URI. Richmond holds the all important tiebreaker since they beat URI first game of the season. Hate to see that come back and haunt is

Saint Louis hosts VCU tonight. VCU favored by 2 points on the road.

[bigappleram]

What you are saying is our margin of error is small - but it always has been and always will be so that's not really news. We play in a mid major conference, we will have to earn everything we get. Is what it is. If Rhody hoops fans had a tagline it would "It's never easy."

[rjsuperfly66]

Wishful thinking that URI still had RPI since with RPI 18 we would be challenging for a 5-seed.

Please stop with this. It's not true now, and it wasn't true when the RPI was relevant. You've said this at least two dozen times in the last 12 months. The RPI was simply a metric, one that was more and more irrelevant by the year for the exact argument you are making. 2015 - Colorado St, RPI of 29, not in the tournament. 2016 - St. Bonaventure, RPI of 30, missed the tournament. 2017 - Loyola-Chicago, RPI of 22, 11 seed as an auto-bid. The RPI was not a relevant seeding measure. And it goes in both directions -- just this year according to the 2020 RPI, Gonzaga has an RPI of 15 but is a 1 seed according to everyone. Please stop pretending that someone's RPI equated in any way to their to seeding.

[ramsman75]

[/quote]Please stop with this. It's not true now, and it wasn't true when the RPI was relevant. ... Please stop pretending that someone's RPI equated in any way to their to seeding.[/quote]

You know RJ, I find much of your commentary informed but on the subject of RPI you are way off base. I have run pools for over thirty years going back to the late 80's. I can remember how accurately the S curve reflected RPI. RPI was considered sacrosanct until the lesser conferences discovered how to "game it". So the NCAA changed the rules. Trust me...as soon as the lesser conferences figure out how to game the NET (and they will, it's what they get paid for) the NCAA will come out with the latest, greatest that will restore the preference to the major conferences....they always do.

[ramster]

What you are saying is our margin of error is small - but it always has been and always will be so that's not really news. We play in a mid major conference, we will have to earn everything we get. Is what it is. If Rhody hoops fans had a tagline it would "It's never easy."

BAR
I agree margin of error is small
But I could have used you to share that logic earlier this week
RJ Superfly was saying we were in with 2 losses in our last 6 games and even with 3 losses
I said only way we get in with 3 losses is to minimum go to the A10 Chamipionship.
Thinking was the 32 NET was strong
My point in pulling the data together is to show the degree of difficulty of the remaining games in the schedule for the 4 A10 teams fighting for bids. It might even be the candidates change because still a lot of remaining games with 5 to go

I think if we lose 3 of last 6 (3 of last 5 now with St Joe win) we just about must win the Championship game

Even losing 2 of the next 5 makes us borderline. Especially if 1 of those losses would be to Fordham or UMASS

I agree it’s tough. But that’s not what was being said by all about 5 days ago.

[ramster]

Wishful thinking that URI still had RPI since with RPI 18 we would be challenging for a 5-seed.

Please stop with this. It's not true now, and it wasn't true when the RPI was relevant. You've said this at least two dozen times in the last 12 months. The RPI was simply a metric, one that was more and more irrelevant by the year for the exact argument you are making. 2015 - Colorado St, RPI of 29, not in the tournament. 2016 - St. Bonaventure, RPI of 30, missed the tournament. 2017 - Loyola-Chicago, RPI of 22, 11 seed as an auto-bid. The RPI was not a relevant seeding measure. And it goes in both directions -- just this year according to the 2020 RPI, Gonzaga has an RPI of 15 but is a 1 seed according to everyone. Please stop pretending that someone's RPI equated in any way to their to seeding.

So what did they use to seed then?
And what do they use now?

[steviep123]

What you are saying is our margin of error is small - but it always has been and always will be so that's not really news. We play in a mid major conference, we will have to earn everything we get. Is what it is. If Rhody hoops fans had a tagline it would "It's never easy."

BAR
I agree margin of error is small
But I could have used you to share that logic earlier this week
RJ Superfly was saying we were in with 2 losses in our last 6 games and even with 3 losses
I said only way we get in with 3 losses is to minimum go to the A10 Chamipionship.
Thinking was the 32 NET was strong
My point in pulling the data together is to show the degree of difficulty of the remaining games in the schedule for the 4 A10 teams fighting for bids. It might even be the candidates change because still a lot of remaining games with 5 to go

I think if we lose 3 of last 6 (3 of last 5 now with St Joe win) we just about must win the Championship game

Even losing 2 of the next 5 makes us borderline. Especially if 1 of those losses would be to Fordham or UMASS

I agree it’s tough. But that’s not what was being said by all about 5 days ago.

This is pretty much what I've been saying...at 5-1 (now 4-1) they are in, period. At 4-2 (now 3-2), it depends on who the 2 losses were to. Then my thinking was if the 2 losses were in the Davidson/Dayton/SLU trio, then they'd be fine, but a loss to either UMass or Fordham would probably require a win over Dayton to make up for it. Now, since SLU lost to UMass, and that game is at home, I think a 3-2 needs to be exactly wins vs. Fordham, SLU, and UMass and the two losses need to be vs. Davidson and Dayton. 4-1 still gets them in because either the loss is to Dayton or they beat Dayton and lose to someone else. Of course as a result of tomorrow's activities, I may update this again.

Regardless, beat Davidson!

[bigappleram]

What you are saying is our margin of error is small - but it always has been and always will be so that's not really news. We play in a mid major conference, we will have to earn everything we get. Is what it is. If Rhody hoops fans had a tagline it would "It's never easy."

BAR
I agree margin of error is small
But I could have used you to share that logic earlier this week
RJ Superfly was saying we were in with 2 losses in our last 6 games and even with 3 losses
I said only way we get in with 3 losses is to minimum go to the A10 Chamipionship.
Thinking was the 32 NET was strong
My point in pulling the data together is to show the degree of difficulty of the remaining games in the schedule for the 4 A10 teams fighting for bids. It might even be the candidates change because still a lot of remaining games with 5 to go

I think if we lose 3 of last 6 (3 of last 5 now with St Joe win) we just about must win the Championship game

Even losing 2 of the next 5 makes us borderline. Especially if 1 of those losses would be to Fordham or UMASS

I agree it’s tough. But that’s not what was being said by all about 5 days ago.

Agree no way we are in if we lose 3 more regular season games. Can definitely absorb 1 possibly 2 if they are to the right teams (@Davidson/SLU/Dayton) but even 2 there would have me concerned if we went 1 and done in A10 tourney.

Just. Keep. Winning

[rjsuperfly66]

Ramsman, I'll give you that you are probably right. When I think of the RPI, I think of the last decade it was in existence where it became less important by the season. What is important (or should be important) in a metric is something that roughly approximates what the committee would say. I think that's why Bracket Matrix is a more important reference than the NET, RPI, KenPom, etc. given it's large sample of people trying to approximate what the committee could say. But I also think if you compare the NET and RPI to a resource like Bracket Matrix, it's clear that the NET, while definitely not perfectly, is a lot closer to reality than the RPI.

Ramster, the committee has been subjective in their seeding for a long time. They didn't look at the RPI, just like they don't look at the NET, and say "1-4 = 1 seeds 5-8 = 2 seeds 9-12 = 3 seeds, etc." There are so many more factors than just those raw numbers. At least in the case of the NET, it lines up much better with the committee and seed expectations than the RPI did.

[ramster]

Ramsman, I'll give you that you are probably right. When I think of the RPI, I think of the last decade it was in existence where it became less important by the season. What is important (or should be important) in a metric is something that roughly approximates what the committee would say. I think that's why Bracket Matrix is a more important reference than the NET, RPI, KenPom, etc. given it's large sample of people trying to approximate what the committee could say. But I also think if you compare the NET and RPI to a resource like Bracket Matrix, it's clear that the NET, while definitely not perfectly, is a lot closer to reality than the RPI.

Ramster, the committee has been subjective in their seeding for a long time. They didn't look at the RPI, just like they don't look at the NET, and say "1-4 = 1 seeds 5-8 = 2 seeds 9-12 = 3 seeds, etc." There are so many more factors than just those raw numbers. At least in the case of the NET, it lines up much better with the committee and seed expectations than the RPI did.

So what do they use to seed? Subjectivity?

[rjsuperfly66]

Yes, subjectivity. They judge it by resume strength. The real importance of the NET or RPI is that they create the former Top 50/Top 100 or current quadrant system that is used to determine strength of wins and weakness of bad losses. But going back quite some time those numbers alone haven't been a significant factor.

[bigappleram]

In short, all of it. Metrics like NET and KenPom, road wins, how you are playing of late, how you did against other NCAA teams and get this how you look on tape when they watch you play! Some quantitative some qualitative, which is the way it should be. It's not a perfect science, but for the most part they get it right.

[rhodysurf]

Yes, subjectivity. They judge it by resume strength. The real importance of the NET or RPI is that they create the former Top 50/Top 100 or current quadrant system that is used to determine strength of wins and weakness of bad losses. But going back quite some time those numbers alone haven't been a significant factor.

Yeah and I think this season in particular fans have been putting a ridiculous amount of emphasis on Q1 wins being the most important thing, which it may be, but the committee is much more balanced and nuanced than fans think and dont just pick the best numbers.

[PeterRamTime]

In short, all of it. Metrics like NET and KenPom, road wins, how you are playing of late, how you did against other NCAA teams and get this how you look on tape when they watch you play! Some quantitative some qualitative, which is the way it should be. It's not a perfect science, but for the most part they get it right.

Exactly!

Every year they interview one of the people from the selection committee and they say pretty much what you wrote and their selections reflect it.

How they scheduled in the non conference.
Who they beat.
Who they lost to.
All their metrics and the eye test.

We are firmly in right now because, we scheduled well, have a solid number of quad one and two wins and the metrics like us.

Got a chance for a quad 2 tomorrow so they will like us even more!

[NYGFan_Section208]

I tuned in late and missed it, and saw some replay on ESPN today, but did anyone see Caliendo imitating Bill Walton, while sitting next to Bill Walton? If you don't watch, and just listen...can't tell the difference. Walton is awesome on his own, but Walton with a Walton impersonator...great stuff.

[Blue Man]

I tuned in late and missed it, and saw some replay on ESPN today, but did anyone see Caliendo imitating Bill Walton, while sitting next to Bill Walton? If you don't watch, and just listen...can't tell the difference. Walton is awesome on his own, but Walton with a Walton impersonator...great stuff.

I got you. Great stuff:

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/192 ... t-my-brain

[NYGFan_Section208]

I tuned in late and missed it, and saw some replay on ESPN today, but did anyone see Caliendo imitating Bill Walton, while sitting next to Bill Walton? If you don't watch, and just listen...can't tell the difference. Walton is awesome on his own, but Walton with a Walton impersonator...great stuff.

I got you. Great stuff:

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/192 ... t-my-brain

hahaha,,,,this is great:
"I need to be entertained more often than not. You can literally see an analysis of any game thanks to Twitter. If I'm listening to a game, I want entertainment. Walton/Pasch give that. Also Caliendo's impressions are just --- good. I have no idea how to change your voice like that, but it's impressive as hell."

ETA: I wouldn't mind, at all, having whatever that night's "Walton Game" is, inserted into the Games of Interest....

[reef]

I did see that and Caliendo is hysterical with all his impressions

[theblueram]

VCU better win

[RhodyRam86]

not sure which way to go on this game. we beat vcu twice and only get st. lo once. but vcu is pretty much locked into their quadrant (2 at home and 1 at vcu). St lo at an 80 NET has a chance to move up a quadrant.

i suppose a vcu win is better for our NET, but a St. Louis win gives us the potential for another Q2 quality win. We already have a solid NET, but could use more quality wins.

[ElmCityRhody]

Thanks for telling me who to root for tonight

All I am programmed for is the root against PC

I WILL NEVER ROOT FOR PC

I BLEED KEANEY BLUE

NEVER PC NEVER

to all those who agree then I’m buying shots for you guys and gals cas I want to hang out with ppl who will always root against PC and have a great effing time

It’s gonna be an UBER night ...

[Rhody83]

How was VCU favored in this game. They can’t score and the havoc defense is no longer. Down 14 at half.

[rhodysurf]

VCU is toast. Jacking up threes and playing shit defense. Entertaining game tho not gunna lie

[RamStock]

They might as well put away the uniforms and basketballs at VCU for the year. They have been awful the last 3 weeks

[PeterRamTime]

Damn VCU...

[SmartyBarrett]

VCU is canceled.

[TruePoint]

This game was good for 12 minutes to start and then SLU went on a 17-0 run over 6 minutes. That’s not great.

[LoveThoseRams]

This game was good for 12 minutes to start and then SLU went on a 17-0 run over 6 minutes. That’s not great.

And it’s hard to listen to “SON-tos” Silva

Mark Plansky is full of himself.

[Rhody15]

Thanks for telling me who to root for tonight

All I am programmed for is the root against PC

I WILL NEVER ROOT FOR PC

I BLEED KEANEY BLUE

NEVER PC NEVER

to all those who agree then I’m buying shots for you guys and gals cas I want to hang out with ppl who will always root against PC and have a great effing time

It’s gonna be an UBER night ...

How
Many times are you gonna yell at us in all caps that you won’t ever cheer for PC...

[rhodysurf]

Holy shit has SLU ever played offense this well before? I bet not....

[Joe95]

We may end the season without one Q1 win at this rate. VCU is D E A D.

[PeterRamTime]

On the bright side, Saint Louis is now likely a Q2 game when they come to the Ryan Center.

[PeterRamTime]

I really like Plansky, but he just tried to say VCU was a young team.

"They have a lot of seniors...but they play a lot of young guys"

DE'RIANTE JENKINS
Sr


Mike'L Simms
Sr

Marcus Evans
Sr

Corey Douglas
R-Jr


Nah'Shon Hyland
Fr

Vince Williams
So


KeShawn Curry
So.


Jimmy Clark III
Fr.

Malik Crowfield
Sr

Marcus Santos-Silva
Jr.


Arnold Henderson VI
Fr.

Hason Ward
Fr.

Jarren McAllister
Fr

Issac Vann
R-Sr.

Hard to get much older than that.

What a great time NOT to be a VCU fan.

[adam914]

Damn you VCU!

[Obadiah]

Brown takes a road win at Columbia and Long Island U. gets a nice come from behind win at Fairleigh Dickinson.

[bkoeppen]

Thanks for telling me who to root for tonight

All I am programmed for is the root against PC

I WILL NEVER ROOT FOR PC

I BLEED KEANEY BLUE

NEVER PC NEVER

to all those who agree then I’m buying shots for you guys and gals cas I want to hang out with ppl who will always root against PC and have a great effing time

It’s gonna be an UBER night ...

How
Many times are you gonna yell at us in all caps that you won’t ever cheer for PC...

Hopefully not as much as you bitch about J. Harris

[Rhody15]

Thanks for telling me who to root for tonight

All I am programmed for is the root against PC

I WILL NEVER ROOT FOR PC

I BLEED KEANEY BLUE

NEVER PC NEVER

to all those who agree then I’m buying shots for you guys and gals cas I want to hang out with ppl who will always root against PC and have a great effing time

It’s gonna be an UBER night ...

How
Many times are you gonna yell at us in all caps that you won’t ever cheer for PC...

Hopefully not as much as you bitch about J. Harris

He’s easily passed me on that.

[ramster]

Tonight’s beating of VCU by SLU
- Saint Louis looked strong tonight
- Saint Louis now has 19 wins
- Heard tonight Goodwin and French are the only pair from the same team, among all 353 D1 teams, to average double doubles in points and rebounds
- Saint Louis had lost 8 straight games to VCU
- The #1 Seed in the A10 Tournament has not won the Tournament the last 5 years
- The Saint Louis - URI game at URI Sunday March 1 is now shaping up to be a big game
- Yuri Collins, just a freshman, has 12 assists tonight - is is really improving fast for SLU

[PeterRamTime]

Tonight’s beating of VCU by SLU
- Saint Louis looked strong tonight
- Saint Louis now has 19 wins
- Heard tonight Goodwin and French are the only pair from the same team, among all 353 D1 teams, to average double doubles in points and rebounds
- Saint Louis had lost 8 straight games to VCU
- The #1 Seed in the A10 Tournament has not won the Tournament the last 5 years
- The Saint Louis - URI game at URI Sunday March 1 is now shaping up to be a big game
- Yuri Collins, just a freshman, has 12 assists tonight - is is really improving fast for SLU

They are also really Inconsistent. I'm sure we will get their best though.

[reef]

We dropped 2 spots on the latest bracketmatrix and now we are the last 9 seed

We need to beat Davidson or things will start to get hairy

[Obadiah]

Busy schedule on Saturday in the A-10 with the highlight game being Rhode Island at Davidson, 5:30 PM. On CBSSN. Davidson is coming off a surprise loss to Saint Joseph's while URI is coming off two uneven performances against Dayton and St. Joes. URI will need its best defensive effort against the Wildcats who are always a tall order at Belk.

Other A-10 games:

Duquesne at Dayton, 2 PM.

UMass at Fordham, 4 PM. On ESPN+.

La Salle at George Washington, 4 PM. On ESPN+.

Saint Joseph's at George Mason, 4:30 PM.

Richmond at St. Bonaventure, 6:30 PM.


In games involving URI OOC opponents :

#19 Marquette at Providence, 12 Noon. On FOX.

Middle Tennessee at Southern Miss, 1 PM. On ESPN3.

#17 West Virginia at TCU, 2 PM. On ESPNU.

Nicholls at Central Arkansas, 4 PM.

Louisiana Tech at North Texas 4 PM.

Brown at Cornell, 6 PM. On ESPN+.

LSU at South Carolina, 6 PM. On ESPN2.

Charlotte at Western Kentucky, 7 PM.

Alabama at Ole Miss, 8:30 PM. On SECN.

[Billyboy78]

Looking for a Bonnies win about an hour after our win.

[LoveThoseRams]

Going to the Marquette game in full Keaney Blue URI swag....odds that I get harassed in the Dump?

[steviep123]

Going to the Marquette game in full Keaney Blue URI swag....odds that I get harassed in the Dump?

100% by someone. Just a matter of how badly.

[section(105)]

Going to the Marquette game in full Keaney Blue URI swag....odds that I get harassed in the Dump?

100% by someone. Just a matter of how badly.

......as will I, in section 106 with KB sweater......and the nearest beer stand for a PBR......

[LoveThoseRams]

Going to the Marquette game in full Keaney Blue URI swag....odds that I get harassed in the Dump?

100% by someone. Just a matter of how badly.

......as will I, in section 106 with KB sweater......

We are in 106 too! Keaney Blue out in 106