2017-18 Bracketology

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 6 years ago

Blue Man wrote:Using ESPN as a barometer for anything that isn't Lebron instagram posts is dumb.

Joe Lunardi has the 40th ranked bracketology report on Bracket Matrix.

Yes this, there is literally no reason to even check Lunardi's bracket anymore these days.

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 6 years ago

I think our ceiling is a 6 seed if all goes well.....the poor level of the A10 this year hurts us....

....I think the A10 will be appreciably better next year but we will have a dropoff due to our senior losses this year....

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 6 years ago

Ramulous wrote:I think our ceiling is a 6 seed if all goes well.....the poor level of the A10 this year hurts us....

....I think the A10 will be appreciably better next year but we will have a dropoff due to our senior losses this year....

I agree that the ceiling may be lower than 4... but running the table should have us at 5.

Either way it’s a long way til then.

We were 17-3 at this point once before too. Obviously a very different situation and team (and schedule and wins), but predicting a bracket in January is almost the same as predicting it in November.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 6 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:
Rhody83 wrote:. The point is that brackets at this point are meaningless. You can pick from so many different brackets and most of these guys aren’t looking at the detail games of all the teams from week to week.
I don't understand why more people don't use bracket matrix... What's better, one person's meaningless bracket, or a consensus of all of the meaningless brackets? At least with a consensus you can see the average which I do believe is likely closer to the truth. Bracket Matrix currently has URI as the 2nd highest 6 seed, which I do feel is a fair barometer. I think that's likely more realistic than the people who have URI as a current 4 seed or the people who have URI as an 8/9 seed. At a minimum, use the Top 10 "bracketologists" over an extended period of time: Bracketville, Stewart Mandel (Fox), SyracuseFan7, Jon Teitel (HoopsHD), Jabesblog, One Man Selection Committee, Warren Nolan, Wild Bill, Andy Bottom's (Assembly Call), and The Left Bench.

If there was a bracketmatrix for the top 10 guys, I'd use it. Unfortunately the way it's set up, any guy with a blog can add their bracket. Garbage in, garbage out. Bracketville has been more accurate than bracketmatrix each of the last four seasons, so I'm comfortable using them like I have

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 6 years ago

Agree about bracket matrix that is the one we should focus on not that boob Lunardi

steviep123 · Unread post by **steviep123** » 6 years ago

The Athletic has us as a 7 seed in Nashville playing NC State:

https://theathletic.com/215684/2018/01/ ... rall-seed/

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 6 years ago

If we win out and win our conference tournament we would be 29-3 with probably a top five RPI.

I can imagine us getting a seed as high as 2 in that scenario.
If we are at about 6 right now, winning 11 more games without losing any, while other teams ahead of us now lose we could get that high. Especially because we played one of the thoughest OOC schedules mostly without EC and Cyril and did well.
Not sure how much we would be punished for how weak te A-10 is, but it would have to at least be a 4 if we win out I think. We would definitely deserve a 3 I think.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 6 years ago

Whatever we think we deserve it will probably be a line or 2 lower than we deserve

The committee always screws URI and the A10

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 6 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote:If we win out and win our conference tournament we would be 29-3 with probably a top five RPI.

I can imagine us getting a seed as high as 2 in that scenario.
If we are at about 6 right now, winning 11 more games without losing any, while other teams ahead of us now lose we could get that high. Especially because we played one of the thoughest OOC schedules mostly without EC and Cyril and did well.
Not sure how much we would be punished for how weak te A-10 is, but it would have to at least be a 4 if we win out I think. We would definitely deserve a 3 I think.

Think quadrants. A team with 2, maybe 3 Q1 wins is not getting a 2 seed.

4 seed is our stars aligned ceiling, 5 is our realistic ceiling if we run the table from here through March 11th.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 6 years ago

So long as we avoid the 8-9 I'm cool with it.

It'll be interesting to see how differently they select teams according to this new quadrant system.
In the past they were so inconsistent with how they seeded and selected.
There would be teams with good wins but a mostly terrible sos that would get put behind teams who had less quality wins but a tougher schedule.
That's why I feel like we have a chance to get a higher seed than most are thinking possible.
We may not have as great a wins but we have the SOS o back us up. Also, FGCU, Iona and charleston could all make the dance and so that would make us 5-3 against the field.

Soo uhh meanwhile let's keep whooping Atlantic 10 assss

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 6 years ago

I would like to avoid 7-10...they are essentially the same...

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 6 years ago

Blue Man wrote:
Think quadrants. A team with 2, maybe 3 Q1 wins is not getting a 2 seed.

4 seed is our stars aligned ceiling, 5 is our realistic ceiling if we run the table from here through March 11th.

I think that is a realistic sentiment. At this time yesterday, I thought URI might have a chance at a 3, but the more I thought about it, the harder I realized I think that would be ... While URI could run the table and have a stellar resume, I think that ultimately there is just not enough firepower in in "big" wins to promote a top 3 seed. So I've done some digging into the "worst" 3 seeds via KenPom in the last 10 years, and the closest comp was New Mexico in 2010, who is probably the most interesting case because they had a season-ending KenPom of 43! (URI is currently as 34).

However, one thing they had in their favor was conference strength. The conference had 9 teams, played double-round robin, and put 4 teams in the tournament. That New Mexico team was 4-0 in KenPom Top 25 games, which included a road win and a semi-road win, and 6-4 overall against the Top 50, which included 1 additional road win. Mixed in was one "bad" loss, rolling to a 29-4 record entering the tournament. RPI wise, they finished with an RPI of 10, were 5-2 against the RPI Top 25, still 6-4 against the RPI Top 50 (Q1), and 11-4 against the RPI Top 100 (Q1+Q2).

Now if you compare the "strength" to URI, URI is currently 0-2 in KenPom Top 25 games and 1-2 overall against the KenPom Top 50. If you go with Q1 metrics (which are the new Top 50), URI is currently 1-3... Could get to 3-3 if they play St. Bonaventure in the A10T and St. B's keeps their Top 50 rating. I think that will make it hard to jump above power teams who might lose more than a few games along the way, but always have the chance at bounce back games. URI definitely caught the short straw having arguably one of the best seasons in program history, but not getting that respect because of the conference draw.

I would think a 4 is definitely a realistic possibility, assuming maybe 1 loss along the way in one of the tougher road games. I don't think they need to be perfect to get a 4 seed.

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 6 years ago

We will no higher than a 6

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 6 years ago

if the quadrant system is significant in seeding, I would think URI fans that want the Rams to have the highest seed possible would be rooting for the Friars tonight over SH. Seton Hall is securely a quadrant 1 win whether they win or lose tonight as that was a neutral site game. They could fall from 19 to 50 and still be quadrant 1. PC with a 37 rpi is currently a quadrant 2 win. If they move up seven spots they move up to Q1.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 6 years ago

81AE1BEF-8C55-4580-A577-E66AF9B91890.png

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 6 years ago

I would be SHOCKED if URI was in the mix here, but of note:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... 11-on-cbs/

Da_Process_Survivor · Unread post by **Da_Process_Survivor** » 6 years ago

SmartyBarrett wrote:I would be SHOCKED if URI was in the mix here, but of note:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... 11-on-cbs/

if we keep the W train going till then, could get interesting

Rhode_Island_Red · Unread post by **Rhode_Island_Red** » 6 years ago

Just keep winning, then watch the committee try to explain why they screwed over a deserving non-cartel team. (Of course, 1-percenter Jay Bilas never had a problem with it.)

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 6 years ago

Whether Rhody gets 'screwed' or not on the 2/11 reveal...it's totally awesome that it's even a discussable point...
Insert thumbs up emoji here -->______

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 6 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:Whether Rhody gets 'screwed' or not on the 2/11 reveal...it's totally awesome that it's even a discussable point...
Insert thumbs up emoji here -->______

Yup, that's my thinking as well. I'll be watching to see if URI gets a mention as a potential team "on the bubble" of cracking the Top 16.

Rhody83 · Unread post by **Rhody83** » 6 years ago

Anything better than an 8 seed is good. We would be favored in the first round and have a chance in the second round.
A 6 seed could make a second round win more doable.

I think Rhody will go 16-2 and win the A10 tournament.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 6 years ago

Today's bracket:

http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/ ... on-xavier/

We're a 5 seed taking on Loyola-Chicago in Dallas

Virginia is a 1
Seton Hall is a 6
Nevada is a 7 taking on Providence
Alabama is a 9
UNC-Asheville and Florida Gulf Coast are 16 seeds. FGC is in a play in game

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 6 years ago

That is a lot of dancing teams right there.

Crazy when you think no A10 teams on there.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 6 years ago

BubbleWatch is back @ The Athletic

Rhody earns a "Should Be In".

Rhode Island (18-3, 10-0 – RPI: 8, SOS: 42): When was the last time Clemson, Auburn and Rhode Island had top-10 RPIs at the same time? Probably never, right? It has to be never. Anyway, the Rams are running roughshod over the A10, which is bad this year. But, hey, credit where due.

Here are the definitions:

A lock is a lock. If there's a non-zero chance that a team could miss out on the tournament, no matter how unlikely, we'd rather play it safe than undo a lock. (Perish the thought.)
“Should be in” is pretty self-explanatory, but it gets more literal the closer we get to Selection Sunday. “Work to do” means everything is up for grabs.
We try to think like the committee. Traditional RPI-centered resumes aren't our first analytical choice in any other setting, but until we're sure the committee has ditched them entirely – and hey, maybe next year? – that's where the focus lies.
Won-loss records are current through Thursday's games. All RPI and strength of schedule numbers are accurate through Wednesday.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 6 years ago

Kansas with an unexpected home loss to Oklahoma State drops in the RPI rankings. As a result, URI moves up to the #8 RPI ranking. Rhody is currently sandwiched between Purdue-Duke and Kansas-North Carolina. Not bad company.

DC_Rams · Unread post by **DC_Rams** » 6 years ago

Did Duke drop after losing to SJU?

wpbrown8267 · Unread post by **wpbrown8267** » 6 years ago

DC_Rams wrote:Did Duke drop after losing to SJU?

Yes, I think they were 2 before loss to the johnies, now 7 right in front of us

Rhody74 · Unread post by **Rhody74** » 6 years ago

Somehow I like Nevada’s win over URI as resume-enhancing.

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 6 years ago

Dickie V went on a nice pro-URI rant during the Alabama / Florida game today, talking about how that was one of Bama's best wins.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 6 years ago

Not sure what the driver of this is, but in the “in game” RPI on rpiforecast dot com, URI has passed Auburn and is now #5. Auburn is beating Vandy by 10 at halftime so not sure how that could change before tomorrow. But stil, pretty wild.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 6 years ago

nevada is playing and winning helping us out

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 6 years ago

Iona , Bama, st Bonnie’s , amongst others are all winning this weekend.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 6 years ago

I understand overall why our RPI improved over the weekend - our OOC opponents had a terrific weekend. My point was I don't understand what was causing us to briefly show as passing Auburn in the in-game RPI. And I still don't - the Auburn and Nevada games were among the very few games in progress at the time, and both of those results held from where they were at the time - and when the games ended we ended up back at 6. Not sure it matters but just found it curious.

Anyways, this has become one of my favorite things to look at - espn.com's resume ranker, which now has us a 4 seed.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... iew/resume

woodennickel1 · Unread post by **woodennickel1** » 6 years ago

Rhode_Island_Red wrote:Just keep winning, then watch the committee try to explain why they screwed over a deserving non-cartel team. (Of course, 1-percenter Jay Bilas never had a problem with it.)

99% of the time I would agree with you on this statement but this year the committee is made up of mostly non P5 members so if you do get screwed shame on them .

Meet the Committee

Bruce Rasmussen
Committee chair and director of athletics at Creighton University
Bruce began service on the committee on September 1, 2013 and will serve as chair of the committee for 2017-18.

Other Committee Members Include:
Bernard Muir, vice chair of committee and director of athletics, Stanford University
Mitch S. Barnhart, director of athletics, University of Kentucky
Tom Burnett, commissioner, Southland Conference
Janet Cone, director of athletics, University of North Carolina at Asheville
Tom Holmoe, director of athletics, Brigham Young University
Jim Phillips, vice president for rthletics & recreation, Northwestern University
Jim Schaus, director of athletics, Ohio University
Craig Thompson, commissioner, Mountain West Conference
Kevin White, director of athletics, Duke University

eli#10 · Unread post by **eli#10** » 6 years ago

Now up to #6 in the NCAA RPI. Clearly unchartered territory.....

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 6 years ago

Have to think having the UNC-A AD on the committee won't hurt. Chances are she has followed our season more than some of the others.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 6 years ago

I like saving the RPI for posterity. URI, in the first week of February with 3/4 of the season in the books, has an RPI ranking of #6. Its OOC SOS moved up to #2 yesterday with its non conference opponents (11) recording a perfect 9-0.

Screenshot-2018-2-4 Live-RPI com.png

Shinze88 · Unread post by **Shinze88** » 6 years ago

RF1 wrote:I like saving the RPI for posterity. URI, in the first week of February with 3/4 of the season in the books, has an RPI ranking of #6. Its OOC SOS moved up to #2 yesterday with its non conference opponents (11) recording a perfect 9-0.

Screenshot-2018-2-4 Live-RPI com.png

I wonder if there would be any movement if Seton Hall is able to knock off Nova today....

Justns11 · Unread post by **Justns11** » 6 years ago

Sweet 16 would be nice!

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 6 years ago

Wait, do we hate Joey or love him?

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 6 years ago

ATPTourFan wrote:Wait, do we hate Joey or love him?

Yes!

URI96 · Unread post by **URI96** » 6 years ago

We've moved into the 5 line on Bracket Matrix.

ramsman75 · Unread post by **ramsman75** » 6 years ago

CBS has us as a 4 seed in the East

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 6 years ago

Love bracket matrix !!!

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 6 years ago

6 seed on ESPN

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 6 years ago

I think it has been hate for over 10 years. I think based off him having us out or low every time we were on the bubble and those last few spots are so political.

But if he wants to get on the bus

Billyboy78 · Unread post by **Billyboy78** » 6 years ago

Well, we're up to #18. If we end up around #12, we have to at least get a 4 seed, don't we?

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 6 years ago

Not sure about that.....our RPI is great, but the committee looks more at BPI and to a lesser degree Pomeroy and Sagarin.....and of course the new metrics of the quadrant system, which unfortunately for us doesn't give us the opportunities to win very many Q1 games....

If we run the table we've got a shot at a 4.....any loss at all, or 2 losses and a 5 or 6 is more likely....with a 6 as my guess.

Billyboy78 · Unread post by **Billyboy78** » 6 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:Not sure about that.....our RPI is great, but the committee looks more at BPI and to a lesser degree Pomeroy and Sagarin.....and of course the new metrics of the quadrant system, which unfortunately for us doesn't give us the opportunities to win very many Q1 games....

If we run the table we've got a shot at a 4.....any loss at all, or 2 losses and a 5 or 6 is more likely....with a 6 as my guess.

Yes, I was basing that on running the table and going 26-3.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 6 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:Not sure about that.....our RPI is great, but the committee looks more at BPI and to a lesser degree Pomeroy and Sagarin.....and of course the new metrics of the quadrant system, which unfortunately for us doesn't give us the opportunities to win very many Q1 games....

If we run the table we've got a shot at a 4.....any loss at all, or 2 losses and a 5 or 6 is more likely....with a 6 as my guess.

The odds according to RPI Forecast are 11% that we win our 7 remaining games and finish 26-3
This is up from what has been around 6% the past several weeks
26-3 gives an RPI of 4.9 so the 5th best team in the US
25-4 gives RPI of 7.1 and a 30.7% chance of that
24-5 gives RPI of 10.2 and a 34.5% chance of that

Last 4 weeks we have moved up an average of 3 places in AP Top 25 - still 4 more voting weeks to go and continue to move up in AP if we keep winning. Voters will see URI and their high RPI and continue to adjust their votes higher just as they have been doing each week.

So one could argue that if we win out we are a 2nd round seed candidate based on an RPI of 4.9. You probably won't win but could certainly argue it and quite strongly too. 3rd round would be more likely as winning 7 straight could move us into the Top 10 from the current 18.

Expected RPI on February 5.png