2016-2017 RPI watch

CTRamfan · Unread post by **CTRamfan** » 7 years ago

Well we are 54 this morning'
.....If we go 4-0 the rest of the way our rpi would be about 35, with only 3 top 100 wins.
.....We are in third place in the A10, and have a 7-3 record in our last ten.
.....We have lost our chance for "resume building top 100 wins". A combination of not winning OOC games against top 100 teams, except Cincy and Belmont, and a weak conference. Only four A10 schools are ranked in top 100. In past years, it has been between seven and nine.

We are now playing to gain some chemistry going into the A10 tournament hoping that we can pull off a win. We probably will get the "double bye" if we stay in 3rd or 4th place...........otherwise it is the NIT unless we go 0-3, or 1-3 in our remaining games.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

We're fourth in the A10. We're tied for third, but Richmond has the tiebreaker on us.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 7 years ago

Looking at the remaining schedules of the teams that are currently 9-5 and 8-6, we had better go no worse than 3-1 to get the double bye.

So Tuesday's game against LaSalle is very big from that standpoint.

In other words, to have a snowball's chance......

And the NIT is no lock if we go 1-3.......

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 7 years ago

Just win the next one.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

How to we stack up vs the Tulsa team of last year , most people were shocked they got in

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 7 years ago

reef wrote:How to we stack up vs the Tulsa team of last year , most people were shocked they got in

Last year, Tulsa had an RPI of 58, SOS of 64.
Their big win was at SMU, who finished with an RPI of 13.
Their other top 50 wins were home Wichita St (47 - but with missing pieces), home UCONN (32), and home Cincy (48).
They were 4-5 versus the RPI Top 50 and and 4-3 between 51 and 100.
They had two bad losses, versus Oral Roberts at home (151) and Memphis in the AAC Tourney (139).

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

Ouch! 8-8 against the top 100 for Tulsa and we are what, 2-8? Yet folks still think at large is alive and well.

URI2006_Andy · Unread post by **URI2006_Andy** » 7 years ago

I'm not saying we deserve an atlarge bid but record vs top 100 is very arbitrary. There's a lot of parity between teams 75-150. Means more whether you play the team at home or on the road.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

so now you are expending to top 150? It's the top 100. and we are 2-8.

URI2006_Andy · Unread post by **URI2006_Andy** » 7 years ago

Its arbitrary no matter where you make the cutoff line. Plus it doesn't factor venue which is a critical factor when measuring the quality of a win or loss. Also doesn't factor how close these teams are in actual rpi score. Let's say Davidson and William and Mary sneak in the top 100 and Richmond and lasalle drop out. Now we're 4-6 without even playing a game. I would hope the committee looks a little deeper than record vs top 100 record.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

Any team outside of the top 100 is not getting in barring winning their conference tournament. There is a reason top 100 means something. These are the teams vying for the 68 berths into the tournament.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 7 years ago

URI2006_Andy wrote:There's a lot of parity between teams 75-150.

Not really ... Top 75 is usually competing for an NIT birth and maybe on the NCAA bubble, while Team 150 is usually heading home with a borderline .500 record and maybe a CIT visit. 15-19 Illinois ranked 149th last year. 14-17 Miss St ranked 154th. So they belong in even close to a ballpark as the NIT-bound Alabama, Ohio St., etc. or even NCAA-bound Syracuse who all ranked between 70-80? Doubtful ... Honestly Top 100 is even generous to many teams, Top 75 is a better barometer of good competition, but it's not as clean of a number.

URI2006_Andy · Unread post by **URI2006_Andy** » 7 years ago

I'm not saying that a team outside the top 100 is going to get an atlarge bid into the NCAA. I'm saying why should a home win versus a team ranked 90 be considered a quality win but a road win versus a team ranked 110 not be considered as important. It makes more sense to look at SOS as a whole and compare overall records between teams who played a similar SOS.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 7 years ago

Syracuse is fading. I bet they have a 500. overall record after the ACC tournament.

No brand is strong enough to get a 16-16 team into the dance.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 7 years ago

The NCAAT only has 68 teams. So beating teams in the top 100 means you are beating teams that are getting into(or on the bubble)the tournament. Team 150 is a has been and is not getting in unless they win their conference tournament.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 7 years ago

Just by nature of how RPI is calculated, of course a team around 150 is going to have a worse record than a team around 75 (assuming comparable schedules). I think the point is that, qualitatively, there may not be too big of a difference - in the sense that if the two teams played each other on a neutral court it would shock nobody if the 150th ranked team beat the 75th, whereas the relative difference between the 25th best team and the best team is likely much greater and a victory by the 25th best team on a neutral court would be pretty surprising. You can see this even with URI - if you flip two or three baskets during the course of the year their RPI would probably be appreciably better, but if they got those 2 or 3 buckets they wouldn't be a qualitatively better team and it wouldn't mean much for trying to predict future results.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 7 years ago

Seawrightspostgame wrote:Syracuse is fading. I bet they have a 500. overall record after the ACC tournament.

No brand is strong enough to get a 16-16 team into the dance.

The 'cuse is in....

josephski · Unread post by **josephski** » 7 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:
Seawrightspostgame wrote:Syracuse is fading. I bet they have a 500. overall record after the ACC tournament.

No brand is strong enough to get a 16-16 team into the dance.
The 'cuse is in....

GT and Duke at home and Louisville on the road. I'm optimistic they'll get in but who knows, I really haven't been that impressed with them this year.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

I want the Cuse out !!!

Gonebarongone · Unread post by **Gonebarongone** » 7 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:
Seawrightspostgame wrote:Syracuse is fading. I bet they have a 500. overall record after the ACC tournament.

No brand is strong enough to get a 16-16 team into the dance.
The 'cuse is in....

They'd be favored on a neutral floor against URI and any other team near the bubble. It's a question of resume vs. taking the best teams because they have holes in their resume.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

I would take the Cuse over us on a nuetral floor also

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

Syracuse has 3 tough games remaining:
Duke at Home
Louisville Away
Georgia Tech at Home - who they just lost to and could be a very important game for both teams

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 7 years ago

TruePoint wrote:You can see this even with URI - if you flip two or three baskets during the course of the year their RPI would probably be appreciably better, but if they got those 2 or 3 buckets they wouldn't be a qualitatively better team and it wouldn't mean much for trying to predict future results.

Sure it would ... Basketball is about winning games, it's the one place where predictive measures fall short.
I.E. - In KenPom, you play 30 comparable teams on a neutral court. You are a 51% favorite to win each game.
You go 23-7, and win each of those games by just a few points.
Now, one of those teams you beat by a few points, they go 18-12, but their wins are dominating, and their losses are just by a few points.
In the KenPom/predictive world, it's more likely than not that the 18-12 team would be ranked higher than the 23-7 team, because of their strength metrics.
Many would call the 23-7 team more lucky, because they barely won a bunch of games.
But barely winning, it's better than not winning, and that is the one and only thing the RPI has right in it's simplicity.
So if URI made 1 or 2 more winning plays in 3 losses, or 5 losses, it doesn't matter how small the margin, a win is a win.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 7 years ago

Probably the most bothersome thing I have ever seen on this board. Cuse in?!!?!!! They are going to have to fight tooth and nail to not be 500.

you take a 500. Syracuse team? You must cheer for PC too.

Better than URI on a neutral floor? UGH. Last time URI played Cuse it was in the Carrier Dome. And that was by Jim Baron 1.0. That was a victory.

Gonebarongone · Unread post by **Gonebarongone** » 7 years ago

I don't know...only one loss by Syracuse is to a team outside the top 100 kenpom and that was BC (#151) who they turned around and smoked at home. These are not schedules that are similar at all so you need to have these discussions. Cuse has way more good wins and their losses are not egregious. How come no one complains when the 25-4 team from the MEAC doesn't get an at large bid when they lose in the conference tournament. Isn't 25 wins better than 18? What's the better team? Syracuse is the better team.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

Most of URI's losses are close too, and most are on the road. So that helps us too?

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

Too bad if we could have just one more win right now with all the close losses we had we probably could afford one more loss now we can't til the A10 finals

rhodylaw · Unread post by **rhodylaw** » 7 years ago

No way Cuse is in right now - people putting them in were predicting that they had turned the season around and were going to get more wins against the top of the conference. Now they have a chance if they do some work in the next few weeks because they have chances you just don't get in other leagues, but look at there non-conference they lost to anyone with a pulse and have Virginia and maybe two other good wins.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

Real time RPI has Rhody up four spots today to 47. VCU and Dayton at 26 and 27 respectfully.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

Cuse may have just punched their ticket just beat Duke on a buzzer beater

McRam · Unread post by **McRam** » 7 years ago

Is there such a thing as the "official" RPI that the committee uses? I have one that shows us at #42 which would definetely put us in and Sagarin's show us at 54 which is probably out

.http://rpiratings.com/mensrpi.php.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi

McRam · Unread post by **McRam** » 7 years ago

Thanks Rhowdy-- so we are 42. Great! Now win the next few and be a 10 seed, not the extra game 11 seed.

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 7 years ago

If only we had beaten Fordham we'd be in GREAT shape.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

Let's get that RPI in the 30s and have all those bubble teams with better RPI start losing

RAM67 · Unread post by **RAM67** » 7 years ago

RhowdyRam02 wrote:http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi

Help me out here. We beat VCU rpi 25, and they go to 24, yet we go from 42 to 44?

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 7 years ago

Probably has to do with us hosting/them on the road/how our opponents did that day.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

RAM67 wrote:
RhowdyRam02 wrote:http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball ... etball-rpi
Help me out here. We beat VCU rpi 25, and they go to 24, yet we go from 42 to 44?

It's definitely a chink in the armor. The majority of the teams we beat probably lost or something, stupid really.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 7 years ago

Our pre- A10 Tournament RPI picture is looking as clear as ever. Not too many ways to slice up 2 more games... just 3 in fact.

Expected RPI entering Pitt: 45
Current RPI: 44

RPI Wizard when setting next two games as wins shows 42 RPI entering the A10 Tournament.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 7 years ago

ATP,
Would you say that going to the Championship game is required plus of course winning St Joseph's and Davidson?

Also,
Does margin of victory impact at all?
Does it matter if we beat St Joseph's in OT or by 40 points?

RhodyKyle · Unread post by **RhodyKyle** » 7 years ago

ramster wrote:ATP,
Would you say that going to the Championship game is required plus of course winning St Joseph's and Davidson?

Also,
Does margin of victory impact at all?
Does it matter if we beat St Joseph's in OT or by 40 points?

Not in terms of the RPI calculation but certain impacts the "eye test."

RoadyJay · Unread post by **RoadyJay** » 7 years ago

ramster wrote:ATP,
Would you say that going to the Championship game is required plus of course winning St Joseph's and Davidson?

Also,
Does margin of victory impact at all?
Does it matter if we beat St Joseph's in OT or by 40 points?

I think the only thing that really matters is winning right now.

However, there is some mild concern about our kenpom rankings. At 55 it's not especially low, but it's not great either. Since kenpom rankings are based on offensive/defensive efficiency we need to be as efficient as possible on both offense and defense the rest of the way. It would be nice to bring our kenpom rankings down into the 40s.

But it's not like Dan can tell the guys.... "OK, let's make sure we get at least a 1.20 for offensive efficiency tonight and a .85 for defense efficiency"...

Best you can hope for is that we play very well on both ends of the floor.

McRam · Unread post by **McRam** » 7 years ago

Nihttp://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ce Press. Hope they r right!! (just 2 more wins)

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

McRam wrote:Nihttp://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ce Press. Hope they r right!! (just 2 more wins)

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basket ... ble-teams/

This guy is confident that wins vs st joes and Davidson put us in the tourney. Which means any wins in the A10 toruney is the frosting on top.

rhodylaw · Unread post by **rhodylaw** » 7 years ago

Wake forest projected to 0-7 against RPI top 25. Does not deserve a bid.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 7 years ago

Rhodymob05 wrote:
McRam wrote:Nihttp://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ce Press. Hope they r right!! (just 2 more wins)
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basket ... ble-teams/

This guy is confident that wins vs st joes and Davidson put us in the tourney. Which means any wins in the A10 toruney is the frosting on top.

I could see that, but of course you want to be safe.

Additionally, this league isn't very friendly. You have to take every shot at beating these teams and showing them that you're a program to be reckoned with.

Besides its a T-shirt deal and trophy conference. Tedi Bruschi said himself he loves a T-shirt game.

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

Interesting stuff here

Possible we can make it if we win the next 3 then lose in the a10 semis . Hate leaving it up to the committee so better win the next 4 and we should dance

Illinois State is an interesting bubble team

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 7 years ago

Updated per ESPN today for URI
Record:20-9
BPI-37
RPI-41
SOR-57
SOS-78

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve."

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 7 years ago

We also improved 4 spots up to 49 in KenPom, mostly on a truly elite defensive performance (0.74 D-PPP).

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 7 years ago

Defense has been great last 5 games holding teams to poor shooting