Red Sox and other Major League Baseball

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Amazing 9th inning
Nice to see Benitendi back in the line up.
Clutch hitting by Ortiz, Betts and Ramiriz in the 9th
Can't get any better to beat the Yankees like that

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 8 years ago

ramster, the Yankees should have been ahead by 6 runs instead of 3. They beat themselves.

Girardi is an idiot. Betances arm is falling off, and he brings him in anyway.

This is what happens when you let Chapman and Miller go. It was going to bite them at some point. Although if Girardi didn't bring Betances in, they would have won.

Watch out next season though.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

It's amazing that the jankees are still in it....but of course, they are... I don't know how they hung this close, but, kudos to the players.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Clutch 6-5 win over the Yankees today. Toronto and Baltimore both lose. Sox now up by 3 games. Yankees 7 games out now.
Who would have guessed we would take 3 straight from NY it's a chance to sweep tomorrow night.

Unread post by **SGreenwell** » 8 years ago

I was at Sunday night's game, and given my posts in this thread, of course it was started by Pomeranz, ha. Still though, a really fun game, as Hanely smacked two dingers and Mookie had two awesome lay-out catches in right field, where our seats were.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

The Pommer has certainly had ups and downs. Still glad they got him, thinking he'll be a plus for a couple years at reasonable pricing.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Wow, you really want me to star back up on Pommers? Here when Farrell's brilliant move of having All Star Steven Wright pitch run and has now lost their All Star pitcher for the season?
Sure Pommer trade did not know that this was going to happen.....but it did and made the trade for Pommer even more important. Call DD clairvoyant.

And I don't even need to go check Espinosa's stats

Pommer has had good games and so so games but he was still an All Star who we got for a single A pitcher. DD and the Red Sox are playing for the World Series in 2016........
Love what Uehara has done since returning. Not much publicity but his performance in the 8th innings has been important to this teams performance in September

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

And by the way, the $270 million man has not exactly been the "Price is Right" all year or in the Yankee series. Porcello has been absolutely amazing, truly quietly carrying this pitching staff this season. What an amazing story and turnaround from last year.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

And by the way, the $270 million man has not exactly been the "Price is Right" all year or in the Yankee series. Porcello has been absolutely amazing, truly quietly carrying this pitching staff this season. What an amazing story and turnaround from last year.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Interesting article on the post season Red Sox pitching rotation...

http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/9/19 ... ar?ref=yfp

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:Wow, you really want me to star back up on Pommers? Here when Farrell's brilliant move of having All Star Steven Wright pitch run and has now lost their All Star pitcher for the season?
Sure Pommer trade did not know that this was going to happen.....but it did and made the trade for Pommer even more important. Call DD clairvoyant.

And I don't even need to go check Espinosa's stats

Pommer has had good games and so so games but he was still an All Star who we got for a single A pitcher. DD and the Red Sox are playing for the World Series in 2016........
Love what Uehara has done since returning. Not much publicity but his performance in the 8th innings has been important to this teams performance in September

What does it matter? There are a lot of pitchers out there who could give you a 5 ERA over 12 starts and not cost the Sox a top pitching prospect.

Unread post by **SGreenwell** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:Wow, you really want me to star back up on Pommers? Here when Farrell's brilliant move of having All Star Steven Wright pitch run and has now lost their All Star pitcher for the season?
Sure Pommer trade did not know that this was going to happen.....but it did and made the trade for Pommer even more important. Call DD clairvoyant.

And I don't even need to go check Espinosa's stats

Pommer has had good games and so so games but he was still an All Star who we got for a single A pitcher. DD and the Red Sox are playing for the World Series in 2016........
Love what Uehara has done since returning. Not much publicity but his performance in the 8th innings has been important to this teams performance in September

My remarks were kind of flippant and tongue in cheek. But as RJ points out, his ERA with the Sox has been 4.91 since the trade, which I think plenty of people expected. Clay Buchholz is at 5.20 for the year.

Shaolin Swat · Unread post by **Shaolin Swat** » 8 years ago

I know I sound like a broken record here, but minor league stats for an 18 year old in A-ball mean next to nothing without any context. At the low minor league level, especially for pitchers, there are certain developmental goals that are tied to promotion, such as improving fastball command, developing a change-up/breaking pitch, changing arm slot. Focus on these developmental goals takes precedence over raw minor league numbers,which often become skewed by focus on these goals.

Espinoza was ranked the #19 prospect in baseball back in February and was ranked #15 in Baseball America's mid-season rankings (released 3 days prior to the Pomeranz trade), so it's not like his "struggles" have had some sort of impact on his perception and reputation across baseball. Being an 18 year old holding his own in full season A ball means a ton more in the long run than the stats in A ball, especially since pitchers are only throwing 3-4 innings per start (which would also skew a pitcher's numbers). It points to a positive makeup for Espinoza on top of his physical talents.

The all-star thing doesn't mean anything either. All it means is that Pomeranz had a good 3 months to start the season, it's not like he is a perennial all-star with a long track record of success.

Trading Pomeranz for Espinoza still may ultimately pan out, since Espinoza is still far from the big leagues, but this strikes me as a move that Dave Dombrowski makes a lot (focusing on the short-term improvement instead of planning for long-term franchise viability).

Bottom line, as RJ mentioned, there were other moves that the Red Sox could have made without sacrificing one of their top prospects (who, if they ultimately chose to go the trade route, would be a large part of a package that can acquire an actual top-of-the-rotation arm).

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

It's not a comparison to Bucholz. It's a comparison of Pommeranz WITH Bucholz. It's not an either or. The Sox have needed Buchz, Pommeranz and Rodriguez in August, September and October especially with Wright gone.
By the way the article says Pommeranz is the #3 pitcher behind Porcello and Price for what that is worth.

Espinosa was down on the farm and in Single A and still in single A. Would he have helped the Sox this year in this pennant race? Of course not. Maybe in 2-3 years.

Many Sox fans tend to over rate their own players and farm players. But you are not going to get an All Star, left handed, starting pitcher, only 27 years old, without giving up a good player or good minor league prospects or both.

No mention here when Pommer pitches well, but I not good performance and here we go with the wisecracks.

Bottom line you can judge this trade in about 4 years - too early now unless of course the Sox win the World Series and Pommer is one of the starting pitchers

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

Pomeranz was a 1-time AS with no history of going deep into the season at a high level. He's never shown the consistency of being a good/great pitcher, the Sox bit the cheese that maybe he had turned his mediocre career around and to this point the guessed wrong.

You keep saying they needed him. They needed a guy with a 5 ERA in 12 starts? Like I said there are plenty of other guys out there who could have given them a 4-5 ERA at little cost.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

RJ,
Did you read the article I posted today? The writer says Pommeranz is the #3 guy behind Porcello and Price.
If not for Pommeranz you still have Rodriguez who is iffy with injuries and Bucholtz and his unpredictability and then who? Henry Owens who was a disaster when they gave him his chance last month. They say he can't get outshine penchant for walks.

I do recall you,mentioning names of other pitchers, I think 2 at the time. Tehran of the Braves was one, but the Braves were looking for a lot for the guy, and that is why a trade was never made.
DD was early in getting Pommeranz, by two weeks he beat other potential landing spots to the punch. Pommeranz was for sure going to be traded, no doubt San Diego was moving him.

I don't think it comes down to whether the sox should have gotten another pitcher because another pitcher did not move from the names you previously mentioned.......Pommeranz was available and the Sox acted.

Now 3-4 years from now we can look back and see if the trade made sense.....it's really too early now. But I still like it as much as ever.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

Pomeranz is the 3 by default, certainly not because he has earned it. That's my point ... It's not hard to find a pitcher who fills the need you say DP has filled ... I mentioned names of talented guys who I liked better than Pom who could have moved, but there are certainly plenty of generic arms who could have moved with a lower asking price. Do you know there are 49 non-Red Sox pitchers with at least 12 starts and a better post-AS game ERA and 72 guys with at least 10 starts and a better ERA? And of course there are plenty of pitchers who suffered injuries or didn't qualify because of starts who babe put up better numbers. Not that I'm trying to manipulate stats but if you extend to 9 starts there are 10 more guys with better ERA, and so on.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Yes, he is there by default for sure.
Wright with the idiotic pinch running assignment that cost us an All Star pitcher.
But had DD not made the trade then Rodriguez goes to 3, Bucholz to 4 and lord knows who 5 would be. So it seems we agree a trade needed to be made, just not Pommeranz it sounds.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Betts with a huge 2 run homer and then Ortiz hits a 2 run shot. 5-1 Boston bottom of 6th with ace Porcello looking to add to his Major League leading win total.
Sox looking to go up,4 games with a win tonight.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:Yes, he is there by default for sure.
Wright with the idiotic pinch running assignment that cost us an All Star pitcher.
But had DD not made the trade then Rodriguez goes to 3, Bucholz to 4 and lord knows who 5 would be. So it seems we agree a trade needed to be made, just not Pommeranz it sounds.

Correct, thus my whole I think they paid to high for him debate. I think they thought after years he had turned it around and could still get consistent decent performances, he had one good stretch but at this point even the Sox are worried about workload and trying to limit innings/pitch count as best as they can. It wouldn't have been hard to find anyone to fill the role he has provided, they could have still overpaid for a mediocre player but not have given up a "top" prospect.

Shaolin Swat · Unread post by **Shaolin Swat** » 8 years ago

Stephen Wright was an "All-Star" only in the sense that he had an other-worldly start to the season, something that nobody could have reasonably expected to keep up. Since June 15 (the exact mid-point of his season), he has a 4.70 ERA and has come back down to earth. The knuckleball is a very unpredictable pitch and it is a very dangerous decision to rely on a knuckleballer to be a key contributor to a playoff staff. It was absolutely a stupid move for Farrell to use him as a pinch runner, but the notion that he was a top-of-the-rotation pitcher is misguided, since Wright's stats were inflated due to a start to the season that there was no way he could keep up.

Since July 14th (the day the Sox traded for Pomeranz), Eduardo Rodriguez has a 3.25 ERA in 11 starts and 61 innings, compared to Pomeranz's 4.91 ERA in 12 starts and 62 innings. In that same time period, Clay Buchholz has a 3.94 ERA in 6 starts and 46 innings. How has Pomeranz earned the #3 spot by default? I see four pitchers who are clearly throwing better than him going into the postseason (Price, Porcello, Rodriguez and Buchholz).

Sorry, but giving up a consensus top 20 prospect (who could have been used in a package to get a legitimate starter - such as a Chris Sale or Jose Quintana) to get an "All-Star" with a 3 month track record who ultimately may not even be a playoff starter for you is crazy. Dombrowski read the market wrong and made a trade that could turn into one of the worst trades in recent memory.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

The problem with CB is that he's not really a guy you can expect consistency from, he'll either be awesome or he'll suck. So it's tough to take his average ERA, have to look at the trend. His last 2 starts, 9 innings, 8 runs, the game against NYY he was in trouble a lot even though numbers were ok. My fear with CB is that he's starting that backwards slide he always goes on when pressure gets elevated. So would I trust a sliding CB, or a sliding Pomeranz?

And EROD, over the last month, the only good start was against the A's (who have basically been out of the playoff picture since the season began). Against 3 borderline WC teams (KC, Toronto, NYY), 13.1 innings, 11 ER's, 6 BB's, 6K's.

That was why rather than going after someone like Pomeranz who flashed over 3 months, I had wished they had invested more time in finding an arm that has had the proven ability to go around 200+ innings. All the guys we're talking about, they all had legit arm fatigue concerns. Now it's the end of the year, and the Sox are panicking about workload.

Article last night from CSNNE:

"Given that Pomeranz has already set a career high in innings pitched at the big league level, it would seem that the lefty may be dealing with some fatigue.

"It's been (lack of command),'' offered John Farrell. "Is that a direct correlation to the workload to date? That's quite possible. I thought (Sunday) night, his velocity was consistent or similar to previous starts, but the command from pitch-to-pitch wasn't there and it cost him.

"That's something we monitor closely. He's going to start Friday in Tampa.''

Farrell said the Sox will continue to monitor Pomeranz's pitch count and wouldn't have him start an inning in which he's over 95 or so pitches.

Rhodymob05 · Unread post by **Rhodymob05** » 8 years ago

Great time to be the hottest team in baseball!

Shaolin Swat · Unread post by **Shaolin Swat** » 8 years ago

RJ, completely agree that the Sox shouldn't be comfortable relying on Buchholz and Rodriguez going into the postseason. My larger point was more towards the fact that Pomeranz really hasn't done anything since getting here to separate himself from the competition to be the #3 postseason starter, which is a shame since Dombrowski paid a hefty price to acquire him.

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 8 years ago

Rick Porcello and David Price....and then pray for snow and ice....

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

Shaolin Swat wrote:RJ, completely agree that the Sox shouldn't be comfortable relying on Buchholz and Rodriguez going into the postseason. My larger point was more towards the fact that Pomeranz really hasn't done anything since getting here to separate himself from the competition to be the #3 postseason starter, which is a shame since Dombrowski paid a hefty price to acquire him.

See I don't know if I agree with that though ... Pomeranz was very good in August ... 6 starts, 36.2 innings (6+ per), 11 ER (less than 2 per), 39K/12BB ... If you told me you could get 6 innings, 2 runs every night from Pomeranz, I would be more complementary about the deal (if you recall, my threshold was something like 6 innings 2 runs, 7 innings 3 runs, somewhere in that range).

But the reality is that the season is coming to an end, he's slumping bad, and everyone is pointing to his lack of command and relating it to workload, which was one of my biggest reasons for not making the deal, concern about his ability to hold up ... ESPN is even talking about the potential of the Sox having to consider using him out of the bullpen in the postseason.

If they can get his arm somewhat fresh for the playoffs, I feel a lot better about his chances of a quality start than someone like Buchholz. Buchholz also had a great August, but it definitely looks more like an outlier than a projection of things to come.

The three of EROD, Pomeranz, and Buchholz have all flashed during the last 6 weeks, and also had their dips, the Sox have to figure out who they think they have the best chance of getting 6 effective innings out of and those need to be the 2 that start games 3 and 4 of the division.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

These stories about Pommeranz would be more complete if also was included the performance of Espinosa since he left.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

Why? Pomeranz was mostly a win-now move so people talk about him now. Espinosa was a long-term play so hard to judge him until he's at least 22-23 and whatever trajectory he is on at that point. You didn't trade Espinosa for a guy who may be in your bullpen for a playoff run. You traded for him because you thought he was a solid 3.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Espinoza's stats don't/won't matter til he reaches the majors...and that looks to be, what...at least 3 years away? His stats don't matter right now, he's not a big loss - to a team with a deep farm system and even deeper pockets.

Be curious to see the last 10 players ranked (wherever Espinoza was when he was traded) that were in low A-ball at the time...and see how they ended up. A bunch of *NOHEHOHs....? or stars?

*One of my all-time favorite sports terms...NOHEHOH - No One Has Ever Heard Of Him

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

2015 - Carlos Rodon
2014 - Dylan Bundy
2013 - Christian Yelich
2012 - Jameson Taillon
2011 - Matt Moore
2010 - Dominic Brown
2009 - Dexter Fowler
2008 - Jake McGee
2007 - Troy Tulowitski
2006 - Ryan Zimmerman

15th in class, per Baseball America.

I guess it doesn't satisfy your "in low A ball requirement," but it's a pretty good list of guys

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

You guys are missing a huge point on Espinoza, and that is that it doesn't really matter if he ultimately becomes a good big league pitcher or not. Because prospects are currency, and a prospect of that caliber is valuable. Pomeranz was a terrible return on the ASSET, regardless of whether Espinoza goes on the have a terrific career or no career at the major league level. They squandered a valuable chip.

Price has redeemed his season, but he was a no-brainer signing to me if you have the resources. Kimbrel has also been great lately and moving Hanley to first has obviously worked great. Still, the jury is out on Dombrowski for me. He is certainly aggressive but he borders on reckless with his eagerness to unload promising young players. In large part, this team was put together by Theo - who may have the distinction of building the two best rosters in baseball. Btw, anyone interested in a fun read should check out Wright Thompson's new profile on Theo.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

Espinosa Stats in A Ball Fort Wayne Tin Caps since traded by Red Sox:
1 win, 3 losses
4.73 ERA
8 games pitches, 7 started (last game was in middle relief)
32.1 Innings Pitched
17 Earned Runs
38 Hits
1 Home Run
8 BB
28 K's
Opponent's Batting Average: .290
With stats like that he may not make the majors and certainly his ranking has dropped.
Wonder if DD knew something?

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote: With stats like that he may not make the majors and certainly his ranking has dropped.
Wonder if DD knew something?

Despite how much you hate it, Espinosa is still considered one of the best pitching prospects in the minors. That's per a baseball America discussion at the beginning of September.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:
ramster wrote: With stats like that he may not make the majors and certainly his ranking has dropped.
Wonder if DD knew something?
Despite how much you hate it, Espinosa is still considered one of the best pitching prospects in the minors. That's per a baseball America discussion at the beginning of September.

Don't hate it at all. What astounds me is how posters will put out their Pommeranz stats compare them to Bucholtz, Rodriguez and others - snd font get me wrong that is fine, I'm a stat guy BUT then go and do out out their conclusion that the trade sucked and was a disaster and not once even look to see what Espinosa is doing since he left.
There are two sides to every trade. Maybe both guys play I above expectations and trade is great for both, maybe both don't do so great as expectations which to date it looks like - unless you chose to ignore Espinosa's stats to date and only look at Pommer.

Anyway I still like the trade

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

Because most of us know it's impossible to compare MLB to minor league, because the minor league is so much about development, secondary pitches, etc, especially when you are talking about 18 year olds. Any pitcher with a plus fastball can go down to the minors and mow people down by overpowering them, that doesn't show anybody anything. There are really three "knocks" on Espinosa ... He needs to develop his change-up, he needs to have more consistency in the delivery of his secondary offerings, and he needs to grow into a professional body. These are the things he is working on in the minors, what the minors is about. When you trade a "high-potential" lottery ticket for a "#3 starter", it's impossible to win the trade unless that starter performs because teams will always be willing to pay for that ticket. If that starter comes here and has a 5 ERA and might get bumped to the bullpen in the postseason, people will always wonder what else they could have gotten with that lottery ticket, even if that had to throw in a little more with it. Could he have helped get Sale? Or any other of a handful of pitchers? When the White Sox said they wanted 3 or 4 high-level prospects for Sale, Espinosa may have helped there, but with Pomeranz there is no value.

You may be a stat-guy, but minor league scouting is about so much more than stats, which makes it different than just about any other sport. Moncada was only a .277 in AA, it doesn't change any of our opinions that we think he can be a major difference maker with his bat and his speed with a little more development.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:Espinosa Stats in A Ball Fort Wayne Tin Caps since traded by Red Sox:
1 win, 3 losses
4.73 ERA
8 games pitches, 7 started (last game was in middle relief)
32.1 Innings Pitched
17 Earned Runs
38 Hits
1 Home Run
8 BB
28 K's
Opponent's Batting Average: .290
With stats like that he may not make the majors and certainly his ranking has dropped.
Wonder if DD knew something?

First of all, if you read my post before you typed this then it is a first class example of missing the point.

Second of all, minor leaguers are not judged as prospects by their statistics (at least not the type of statistics that you are relying on here), so doing this is a useless exercise. There are literally dozens of reasons for this, but it seems likely that you don't care what those are because understanding those reasons would inhibit your ability to stubbornly make the same wrong point over and over again.

The bottom line is that the Red Sox were robbed in the Espinoza/Pomeranz trade. Pomeranz is a AAAA, roster-filler, back-of-rotation type pitcher. He has had one above average stretch to his career for a bad team in a pitcher's ballpark. I don't have anything personal against the kid, but I am as likely to throw 200 innings in a season as he is, and whatever innings he does give you just aren't that good.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 8 years ago

But even if you are going to use stats in this example (which I agree isn't a great idea), aren't Espinosa's stats better?

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

adam914 wrote:But even if you are going to use stats in this example (which I agree isn't a great idea), aren't Espinosa's stats better?

I think what Ramster is getting at with stats is if Espinosa is a "top prospect," he should be statistically dominate at A ball, and if he can't statistically dominate at A ball, can he even make it to the majors? Don't want to misconstrue the opinion, just my impression of what is being said.

The #2 prospect at mid-season was Alex Reyes. He was #7 preseason (#4 adjusted for guys no longer qualified because of MLB time). He did that despite a 4.96 ERA in 14 AAA starts, a 4.49 ERA in 9 starts at the time the midseason rankings were released. Now he's in the majors with STL, has a 1.03 ERA in 10 appearances, 3 starts. Have to take minor league stats with a grain of salt.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

The obvious and easy counter to that argument is how do you think the numbers he put up in the midwest league would translate to high school baseball? Because that is the level he should be pitching at, and instead he is pitching to guys 22+ years old that have all played a ton more baseball than he has. If he had been born in the U.S. he would have been a HS senior this year and been the #1 pick in the draft. It is pointless to try to argue about what the kid is going to be in five years when he realistically could be in the big leagues; there is not anyone here or in the Red Sox front office who would trade the #1 pick sight unseen for Drew freaking Pomeranz.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

TruePoint wrote:
ramster wrote:Espinosa Stats in A Ball Fort Wayne Tin Caps since traded by Red Sox:
1 win, 3 losses
4.73 ERA
8 games pitches, 7 started (last game was in middle relief)
32.1 Innings Pitched
17 Earned Runs
38 Hits
1 Home Run
8 BB
28 K's
Opponent's Batting Average: .290
With stats like that he may not make the majors and certainly his ranking has dropped.
Wonder if DD knew something?
First of all, if you read my post before you typed this then it is a first class example of missing the point.

Second of all, minor leaguers are not judged as prospects by their statistics (at least not the type of statistics that you are relying on here), so doing this is a useless exercise. There are literally dozens of reasons for this, but it seems likely that you don't care what those are because understanding those reasons would inhibit your ability to stubbornly make the same wrong point over and over again.

The bottom line is that the Red Sox were robbed in the Espinoza/Pomeranz trade. Pomeranz is a AAAA, roster-filler, back-of-rotation type pitcher. He has had one above average stretch to his career for a bad team in a pitcher's ballpark. I don't have anything personal against the kid, but I am as likely to throw 200 innings in a season as he is, and whatever innings he does give you just aren't that good.

Pommeranz made this year's All Star Team

If it is so obvious to you TP that Pommer is just a roster filler then what is your opinion of the Red Sox management that orchestrated this trade? I didn't make it.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 8 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:
adam914 wrote:But even if you are going to use stats in this example (which I agree isn't a great idea), aren't Espinosa's stats better?
I think what Ramster is getting at with stats is if Espinosa is a "top prospect," he should be statistically dominate at A ball, and if he can't statistically dominate at A ball, can he even make it to the majors? Don't want to misconstrue the opinion, just my impression of what is being said.

The #2 prospect at mid-season was Alex Reyes. He was #7 preseason (#4 adjusted for guys no longer qualified because of MLB time). He did that despite a 4.96 ERA in 14 AAA starts, a 4.49 ERA in 9 starts at the time the midseason rankings were released. Now he's in the majors with STL, has a 1.03 ERA in 10 appearances, 3 starts. Have to take minor league stats with a grain of salt.

RJ,
That is correct. I would have expected him to pitch very well after going over to the San Diego single A farm team. If I were a San Diego fan I would be wondering.
I get your point about stats at this level, but aren't the rankings of prospects the epitomy of facts? Somebody or group ranks minor league prospects?

Jury is still out on most any trade that gets made for at least a year. Too early to fully judge this one but I like going all,out for the pennant and World Series. Sale and Teheran were talked a lot about up to the trade deadline but they never moved - had to have wanted more than teams were willing to give up.

Talking about left handed pitchers though, did the Sox ever let one get away in Lester. Most wins in the National League with the best team in baseball this year. We could have kept him for a lot less money than Price but poorly handled that whole situation.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

ramster wrote:
TruePoint wrote:
ramster wrote:Espinosa Stats in A Ball Fort Wayne Tin Caps since traded by Red Sox:
1 win, 3 losses
4.73 ERA
8 games pitches, 7 started (last game was in middle relief)
32.1 Innings Pitched
17 Earned Runs
38 Hits
1 Home Run
8 BB
28 K's
Opponent's Batting Average: .290
With stats like that he may not make the majors and certainly his ranking has dropped.
Wonder if DD knew something?
First of all, if you read my post before you typed this then it is a first class example of missing the point.

Second of all, minor leaguers are not judged as prospects by their statistics (at least not the type of statistics that you are relying on here), so doing this is a useless exercise. There are literally dozens of reasons for this, but it seems likely that you don't care what those are because understanding those reasons would inhibit your ability to stubbornly make the same wrong point over and over again.

The bottom line is that the Red Sox were robbed in the Espinoza/Pomeranz trade. Pomeranz is a AAAA, roster-filler, back-of-rotation type pitcher. He has had one above average stretch to his career for a bad team in a pitcher's ballpark. I don't have anything personal against the kid, but I am as likely to throw 200 innings in a season as he is, and whatever innings he does give you just aren't that good.
Pommeranz made this year's All Star Team

If it is so obvious to you TP that Pommer is just a roster filler then what is your opinion of the Red Sox management that orchestrated this trade? I didn't make it.

He did make the all-star team, which is exactly what Tom Werner hopes fans will think when they think about the trade. Pomeranz had a decent first half in a good pitchers park, but he was named to the team largely because the Padres didn't have many other options to represent them in the game and it was played at their home park. You would be hard pressed to find too many people that understand and follow closely baseball personnel that think much of Pomeranz. As for what that means for Dombrowski, I am much more willing to believe he undervalued his own asset here than that he overvalued Pomeranz. I said more about my opinion of Dombrowski in my post last night, so it would probably be easier for you to check back a few posts than for me to retype it. I think he is a good baseball man overall but I worry about his willingness to mortgage the future to obtain more expensive average major league talent. He's no Theo Epstein, that's for sure. Theo quit the Red Sox twice precisely over moves like selling off a top prospect in the sport for an "all-star" that is no better than a league average replacement player because it helps NESN's ratings to do stuff like that.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

Massaroti had speculated at the time of the deal that one of his concerns with Dombroski was the fact that DD is already 60 and might not care about the long-term program but rather trying to win over the next few years before retiring.

I'm ok with going big to win now, my whole thing was just don't make stupid trades to do it. That's why I gave the drastic examples of "We don't really have a stable catcher, let's trade Yoan Moncada for Stephen Vogt, that helps us win now." Could Espinosa, a mid-level prospect, and a low-level prospect gotten them a less volatile pitching prospect than Pomeranz? Once they traded Espinosa, their only other "elite" prospects were Benitendi and Moncada, both of whom many deemed as untouchable. There are other good prospects in the system, but none of which drew the attention like the "big 3" did.

And speaking about catchers, I'm glad I didn't take the cheese on Sandy Leon either.

June: 14-30 (.467), 1 HR, 6 RBI's, 4 2B's, 5 BB's, 7 K's
July: 22-62 (.355), 2 HR, 10 RBI's, 6 2B's, 1 BB, 13 K's
August: 26-85 (.306), 4 HR, 12 RBI's, 4 2B's, 10 BB's, 23 K's
September: 14-59 (.237), 0 HR, 6 RBI's, 3 2B's, 4 BB's, 17 K's

By the time he's consistently facing top pitchers in the playoffs, watch out.

Shaolin Swat · Unread post by **Shaolin Swat** » 8 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:Massaroti had speculated at the time of the deal that one of his concerns with Dombroski was the fact that DD is already 60 and might not care about the long-term program but rather trying to win over the next few years before retiring.

I'm ok with going big to win now, my whole thing was just don't make stupid trades to do it. That's why I gave the drastic examples of "We don't really have a stable catcher, let's trade Yoan Moncada for Stephen Vogt, that helps us win now." Could Espinosa, a mid-level prospect, and a low-level prospect gotten them a less volatile pitching prospect than Pomeranz?

And speaking about catchers, I'm glad I didn't take the cheese on Sandy Leon either.

June: 14-30 (.467), 1 HR, 6 RBI's, 4 2B's, 5 BB's, 7 K's
July: 22-62 (.355), 2 HR, 10 RBI's, 6 2B's, 1 BB, 13 K's
August: 26-85 (.306), 4 HR, 12 RBI's, 4 2B's, 10 BB's, 23 K's
September: 14-59 (.237), 0 HR, 6 RBI's, 3 2B's, 4 BB's, 17 K's

By the time he's consistently facing top pitchers in the playoffs, watch out.

To be fair, I think the ownership groups have a major impact on this (Mike Ilitch in Detroit who is concerned about the short-term and winning a World Series in his lifetime; Tom Werner/John Henry who are consumed by whatever it will take to keep the money rolling in and staying in the headlines/ratings.)

Personally, I would have liked to see Cherington stay on when Dombrowski came aboard to have some sort of philosophical balance. Obviously, that was never going to happen, since Cherington was not going to take what ultimately amounted to a demotion. While Cherington wasn't perfect, he always seemed to be more concerned with the long-term viability of the organization.

As far as Sandy Leon, everybody should have seen this coming. He has been a AAAA player for his entire career and had his stats inflated by a lot of good luck, which his advanced stats reflected (BABIP of .404; over .100 higher than league average). It's very rare for a 27 year old with a pretty pedestrian track record as a prospect to suddenly figure it out, especially as a catcher (where offensive numbers are generally suppressed by the physical tolls of the job). With as well as the Sox are playing, I'm still nervous because advanced stats are suggesting that there is even more regression around the corner for Leon.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

Well from the sounds of it, the final 2 rotation spots are going to go to the two guys who have the hottest Septembers.
1) Eduardo Rodriguez - 1-1, 3.24 ERA (4 starts)
2) Clay Buchholz - 3-0, 4.05 ERA (4 starts)
3) Drew Pomeranz - 0-2, 8.92 ERA (3 starts)

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

Sox may not lose again until they play the Twins...in Ft. Myers...too bad they didn't have one more win in this streak...then it would fit perfectly into one of those 30 for 30 shows....

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 8 years ago

Sox are on such an otherwordly run now to close the season ... It's amazing that two weeks ago you could at least entertain the idea of them having to fight for a WC spot, now they've stormed back to the point that they are right there with Cleveland and could possible pass Texas for the #1 spot, a huge advantage considering that WC is probably going to try to throw their best pitcher and means you would only face them once in a 5 game series. Although looking at the way the rotations are lining up at this moment, Tigers would probably throw Fulmer, Blue Jays would probably throw Stroman, and the Orioles would probably throw Jimenez, so I guess there goes that theory. Don't think any of those teams will be in a great spot to start manipulating the rotation unless one goes on a run to close it out come next Thursday and lock in the 1st WC.

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 8 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:Sox are on such an otherwordly run now to close the season ... It's amazing that two weeks ago you could at least entertain the idea of them having to fight for a WC spot, now they've stormed back to the point that they are right there with Cleveland and could possible pass Texas for the #1 spot, a huge advantage considering that WC is probably going to try to throw their best pitcher and means you would only face them once in a 5 game series. Although looking at the way the rotations are lining up at this moment, Tigers would probably throw Fulmer, Blue Jays would probably throw Stroman, and the Orioles would probably throw Jimenez, so I guess there goes that theory. Don't think any of those teams will be in a great spot to start manipulating the rotation unless one goes on a run to close it out come next Thursday and lock in the 1st WC.

Right, and when the Sox win out...through the playoffs, that will be 29 straight. So, the big question would seem to be.do they call the ESPN special "30 for 29" or "29 for 30"?

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 8 years ago

How many had Colorado won in a row before meeting (and being swept by) the Sox in the World Series in 2007? It was quite a few, if I recall.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 8 years ago

Ten straight and 21 out of 22.