Win2 = We dance

[ATPTourFan]

Not that Lunardi is perfect, but all 3 A10 teams are comfortably IN the tournament. They aren't seen in his Last 4 byes or last 4 IN. They are safe. Bubblewatch also shows the three teams as locks.

[adam914]

I stand by my prediction

So is it Davidson that you don't see getting in?

[TruePoint]

Unless VCU loses Thursday night (and maybe even if they do), three teams is a 100% lock and I would like to wager a public flogging against sean94.

[Gonebarongone]

Going back to Kenyon Martin breaking his leg, the NCAA has always taken injuries into account and has publicly said so. On the positive side, too. Team A gets a player back and is really good from that point forward is looked at differently than normal. The reality is that VCU is 5-6 since Briante Weber got hurt. Not a single good win and a couple borderline losses. I would be very nervous if I was a VCU fan and they go one and out in the A10 Tournament.

[BPR2010]

If VCU goes one and done, it means losing to either Fordham or Mason. I'd personally find it tough to put THIS team (w/o Weber) as deserving of a bid if that were to happen.

[RF1]

If VCU goes one and done, it means losing to either Fordham or Mason. I'd personally find it tough to put THIS team (w/o Weber) as deserving of a bid if that were to happen.

Even if VCU were to lose to either GMU or Fordham, their RPI at worst would be #25 (per RPI Wizard). They would have a record of 22-10 with wins over likely NCAA teams Oregon, Cincinnati, Belmont, Northern Iowa, and Davidson. Their SOS would be #9 as they also played the likes of Virginia,Villanova, and Old Dominion. Their worst loss outside the tourney would be by a buzzer beater at St. Bonaventure when they were without TWO starters. Given these facts along with their recent reputation, there is no way in hell they are not in the NCAA field.

[Gonebarongone]

If VCU goes one and done, it means losing to either Fordham or Mason. I'd personally find it tough to put THIS team (w/o Weber) as deserving of a bid if that were to happen.

Even if VCU were to lose to either GMU or Fordham, their RPI at worst would be #25 (per RPI Wizard). They would have a record of 22-10 with wins over likely NCAA teams Oregon, Cincinnati, Belmont, Northern Iowa, and Davidson. Their SOS would be #9 as they also played the likes of Virginia,Villanova, and Old Dominion. Their worst loss outside the tourney would be by a buzzer beater at St. Bonaventure when they were without TWO starters. Given these facts along with their recent reputation, there is no way in hell they are not in the NCAA field.

Like I said, it would be 5-7 without Weber. That is the team the committee would be evaluating. If there was a way to carve out those 12 games, the RPI would be over 100, for sure. Not saying they will leave them out but you could make a case for it. With lots of precedent.

[BPR2010]

I guess I should've clarified. It's based on full body of work, that's the emphasis this year. That alone will be enough for an at-large. My point was that when viewing them without Weber, I don't think they're "deserving" of getting in, the team as it stands right now. Simply put, they aren't better than a Davidson/Richmond without him. I guess you could say when applying the Kenyon Martin rule, they aren't an NCAA tournament caliber team these past 2 months isolated from what they did the first half of the season. They're getting in though, no doubt about that. Full body of work saves them, although they're a 1 and done in the tournament.

[seanmc94]

TP,

My predition is 2-3 teams. For me to be wrong; A-10 would need to get 4 in.

Still want to wager that flogging?

[TruePoint]

I'm saying 2 or less I will volunteer to be flogged. Three or more and I do the flogging.

Three is the right number, barring something crazy either way. Seems very unlikely to be 2 or 4+. You came with the hot take of only 2 A10 teams. If you want to back off that now, fine.

[rodfromcranston]

Sean and TP getting kinky.

[Blue Man]

Still the very remote possibility of 5. If Richmond goes to the final and loses, they would have an RPI in the high 30/low 40 range, with a 5-5 record vs the top 50. That's last 4 in territory.

If say, another team, like URI were to beat them, and win the A10 title - that's 5.

[seanmc94]

Dont know how 2-3 max turned into me coming in hot with 2; but it led to Rod posting with the word kinky; so thats fine.

[Seawrightspostgame]

I've seen some Richmond speculation that they have a shot at an At-large.

People love Richmond.

[RF1]

I predict that anywhere from THREE to FOURTEEN teams from the A-10 will make the NCAA Tournament. If just three make it, I will be right.

[ATPTourFan]

Dont know how 2-3 max turned into me coming in hot with 2; but it led to Rod posting with the word kinky; so thats fine.

It's the 2 that's caught everyone's attention. You say that 2 is a possibilty, and that's what we all say is bullshit. There are 3 locks in the A10. So you start with those 3 and with a team like GW or URI able to maybe win in Brooklyn, that would really be a 3; 4 max range.

Do you still stand by 2 as a possibility??

[Gonebarongone]

Dont know how 2-3 max turned into me coming in hot with 2; but it led to Rod posting with the word kinky; so thats fine.

It's the 2 that's caught everyone's attention. You say that 2 is a possibilty, and that's what we all say is bullshit. There are 3 locks in the A10. So you start with those 3 and with a team like GW or URI able to maybe win in Brooklyn, that would really be a 3; 4 max range.

Do you still stand by 2 as a possibility??

If you take 1,000 outcomes, there are a handful that involve VCU not making it. VCU out in one game, Dayton/Davidson meeting in the final, a lot of bubble bursters in other conferences. It's probably 5%, if that, but it's definitely a possibility. Four more likely than two, though.

[ATPTourFan]

GBG, exactly.

[seanmc94]

All I know is VCU better win a game; or they will be a little nervous on Sunday
They SHOULD be ok, but if it comes down to them or a P5 school...

[SGreenwell]

All I know is VCU better win a game; or they will be a little nervous on Sunday
They SHOULD be ok, but if it comes down to them or a P5 school...

Glenn Ordway would be impressed at your fence-straddling in this thread.

[ramfan85]

Sean and TP getting kinky.

50 Shades of Keaney Blue.

[Seawrightspostgame]

VCU or a p5????? Like what VCU or Illinois??? P5 teams without recent success don't get the nod over vcu nationally. VCU gets enormous respect in that regard.

I don't like going to bat for mid-atlantic teams anymore. They seem to have pulled a coup on the A10 and don't need our help.

[bressler3south]

Still the very remote possibility of 5. If Richmond goes to the final and loses, they would have an RPI in the high 30/low 40 range, with a 5-5 record vs the top 50. That's last 4 in territory.

If say, another team, like URI were to beat them, and win the A10 title - that's 5.

To get an NCAA bid, URI needs to win the A-10 Tourney, period. What would be great is if it's URI vs. Richmond in the final, URI winning. That sets up a potential 5-team A-10 showing, as everyone is hot for Richmond and Dayton, and VCU and Davidson are "supposed locks."
From a Monday post……

I need the Blue Man's cred.

[rjsuperfly66]

VCU will be an interesting test case to the "We grade based on the roster on Selection Sunday" argument used by the committee. Even if they lose to Fordham, their RPI should be ~25. It would still be a monumental surprise to see them left out of the tournament based on how strong their body of work has been. It's also trying to play "God" with the bracket, rather then let results speak for themselves.

[seanmc94]

ZERO chance for 5 teams
ZERO

[Gonebarongone]

VCU will be an interesting test case to the "We grade based on the roster on Selection Sunday" argument used by the committee. Even if they lose to Fordham, their RPI should be ~25. It would still be a monumental surprise to see them left out of the tournament based on how strong their body of work has been. It's also trying to play "God" with the bracket, rather then let results speak for themselves.

I have no problem with them using the full season of work. I also have no problem with them using injuries when making their selections. I do have a problem if they are inconsistent with it (which is sort of the committees M.O.). And, if you are consistent, 12 games is enough sample size to realize VCU without Weber is not one of the 35ish best at large teams in the country. Especially if they lose in round one. It's not playing God. It's plain as day.

[bigappleram]

So in a very down year for the A10 we are going to get 3 locks, with an outside chance at 4. I would take that.

The league is very young, historically strong programs (SLU and SJU) were way down this year due to that fact. The teams at the top all return a large majority of their talent (Dayton, VCU, URI, Davidson).
We will be back in the 4-5 range next season. League is well positioned, commissioner deserves a ton of credit.

[peeps4life]

The A-10 has 3 locks. I don't see any way that VCU, Davidson or Dayton miss the tournament.

The best scenario for the A-10 is for Richmond to go to the finals against whomever (URI, GW, Duquesne, St. Louis, St. Bonaventure or St. Joseph's) and for one of those 6 teams to beat Richmond. I'm pretty sure Richmond would actually be in seeing as their already decent RPI would get a lot higher if they beat VCU and Davidson to get to the finals. Then the A-10 may get 5 teams in.

Agree with this. Richmond has an RPI in the low 50's right now, with an SOS to match.

They are right now 3-5 vs the top 50. To beat VCU and Davidson would give them a 5-5 record against the top 50, and an RPI around 37-42. They would move to a lock.

It's very possible, if Richmond and URI face off in the final, with URI winning, the A10 could have 5+ bids 3 years in a row...2 years after we were supposed to be dead as a conference. That's awesome.

bahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. good one.

[Billyboy78]

The A-10 has 3 locks. I don't see any way that VCU, Davidson or Dayton miss the tournament.

The best scenario for the A-10 is for Richmond to go to the finals against whomever (URI, GW, Duquesne, St. Louis, St. Bonaventure or St. Joseph's) and for one of those 6 teams to beat Richmond. I'm pretty sure Richmond would actually be in seeing as their already decent RPI would get a lot higher if they beat VCU and Davidson to get to the finals. Then the A-10 may get 5 teams in.

Agree with this. Richmond has an RPI in the low 50's right now, with an SOS to match.

They are right now 3-5 vs the top 50. To beat VCU and Davidson would give them a 5-5 record against the top 50, and an RPI around 37-42. They would move to a lock.

It's very possible, if Richmond and URI face off in the final, with URI winning, the A10 could have 5+ bids 3 years in a row...2 years after we were supposed to be dead as a conference. That's awesome.

bahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. good one.

Screw, troll!!!

[Blue Man]

Blind test:

Team 1: 19-12, RPI: 52, SOS: 57, 3-5 vs top 50, Best win #19 away, worst loss #204 away

Team 2: 20-11, RPI: 57, SOS 68, 4-5 vs top 50, Best win #35 home, worst loss #166 home



Team 1 is Richmond, team 2 is "should be in" Purdue.

I didn't say it was likely to happen, but how can anyone say zero chance that 2 more top 50 wins to Richmond's resume doesn't put them into the dance?

I bet Richmond REEEEEEALY hates losing that game at George Mason. 20-11 and no losses out of the top 150 would look nice.

[peeps4life]

not trolling. 5 teams ain't gonna never happen

[ElmCityRhody]

Finally this thread has some meaning


WIN 2 = WE DANCE

LETS GOOOOOOOOO

[adam914]

Finally this thread has some meaning


WIN 2 = WE DANCE

LETS GOOOOOOOOO

Now I'm with ya!!!

[ramster]

Dont know how 2-3 max turned into me coming in hot with 2; but it led to Rod posting with the word kinky; so thats fine.

It's the 2 that's caught everyone's attention. You say that 2 is a possibilty, and that's what we all say is bullshit. There are 3 locks in the A10. So you start with those 3 and with a team like GW or URI able to maybe win in Brooklyn, that would really be a 3; 4 max range.

Do you still stand by 2 as a possibility??

No way it's two. But I said that also back in our Poll. We had 19 posters say it would be only two, one poster predicted 1 so Seany is not alone although this late in the game most of those 19 have probably switched to 3.
A10 may be down but not near the disaster some were saying abmonth or two ago.
Bottom line A10 is still 7th in RPI and well respected.

[Running Ram]

The A10 is young and still poised to get 3/4 teams in. Anyone who has been watching should not feel the A10 has lost momentum, this league will be back to 4-6 at large births a year by next year. I've been watching games from as many conference tourneys as I can, the players and coaches in the A10 are excellent, I'd put our best against any of the best of the rest.