Down the stretch they come.....

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 9 years ago

After tonight's action, all A10 teams have played 13 conference games and have five to play. While as many as nine teams are mathematically alive to win the league, the regular season league title and the four A10 tournament byes looks like a five horse race. The five contending teams are: URI, VCU and Dayton, all at 10-3; and UMass and Davidson at 9-4. There is a group of three teams at 7-6 that could sneak into the top four should two of the five aforementioned schools fall on their faces. I wanted to look at the road ahead for the five contenders and give us a place to discuss the horse race at they go down the stretch.

Obadiah does a great job tracking RPIs and night-to-night action of our opponents, and I don't want to step on his toes. What I want to do here is give the lay of the land and allow us to give some context to the results in terms of what they mean to the league picture, discuss and handicap the race and preview some of the marquee matchups. I'll keep updating the below information through the end of the year.

Here are the remaining schedules for the contenders:

Virginia Commonwealth (10-3)

UMass
@Richmond
Dayton
@Davidson
George Mason

VCU plays three of the four other contenders, which means we are the only team that avoids VCU. That means either VCU will slip at some point or everyone else will give back at least one game. That is a good thing for us. Richmond is in the group of teams at 7-6 and has already won at VCU, and VCU has to go to their crosstown rival to close out their season series. Star guard Briante Weber blew out his knee in that Richmond game, and VCU lost it and two of their next three to account for their only three conference defeats, but they've rebounded to win their last two in convincing fashion. With the toughest slate of any of the five contenders, and without Weber, it will difficult for them win out.

Rhode Island (10-3)

@George Mason
Davidson
@La Salle
@Dayton
St. Joseph's

We all know the deal here. Rhody has arrived a year early to contend for the conference title. I could write 2000 words setting the stage for URI here, but we have the whole rest of the board for that. Bottom line is that URI has two shots against fellow top five teams - one home and one away. Going 1-1 there should be a starting point. We should beat Davidson at home to get another game in hand, but winning at Dayton will be a big challenge. I'd expect we get revenge on St. Joe's and send off Gil and TJ properly on Senior Day, and while road conference games are always tough I expect we will beat Mason with a reasonable effort. The game at La Salle is a trap game to me. La Salle is one of the teams technically still alive, sitting at 7-6. We beat them pretty handily in January in one of our best defensive efforts in a great defensive season, but playing them at their place sandwiched between Davidson and Dayton is more dangerous than a lot of people seem to be giving it credit for. I'm hoping for 4-1 finish for Rhody, which would get us a top four finish and a bye, and likely a share of the conference title.

Dayton (10-3)

@Duquesne
George Mason
@VCU
Rhode Island
@La Salle

Dayton's schedule starts out about as easy as you could draw it up, but they have a tough finish. Dayton has survived losing some of their beef and has appeared to thrive with a smaller lineup. Experts seem to think Dayton is in the tournament at this point, thanks to their strong RPI which they have maintained from OOC to this point in the conference schedule. But here is a dirty secret about Dayton: they are really untested for a team 25 games into their schedule. They finished OOC 10-2 with a decent SOS, but they more avoided terrible teams than beat good ones. The best team they played in OOC was Arkansas, who beat them easily. They beat good-not-great Texas A&M and Ole Miss teams, and lost to UConn. In conference, they've beat two teams with winning records: 7-6 La Salle and 7-6 Richmond. They've lost to the only two of the five contenders they played (UMass and Davidson), and were beat by an otherwise free-falling GW team (GW's only win in the last month). I'm not saying Dayton is bad. They aren't. I'm just saying they are beatable, even at their place on Jordan Sibert's Senior Night. The only test they have between now and our game is VCU, who has some question marks in their own right with Weber out.

Massachusetts (9-4)

@VCU
St Joe's
Fordham
Richmond
@GW

After Rhody knocked UMass out of the group tied for first last night, UMass needs to make up at least a game down the stretch. Fortunately for them, they have the easiest group of games to finish of the five contenders. If somehow UMass can rebound from a bad road performance in Kingston and beat a suddenly suspect VCU team on the road this weekend, they are home free and could very easily win or share the A10 regular season title.

Davidson (9-4)

Fordham
@Rhode Island
GW
VCU
Duquesne

Most regulars on this board know how I feel about Davidson, so I won't belabor the point here. Like Dayton, Davidson is a media darling for some reason. They do have wins against UMass and Dayton, and lost to VCU. They've also beaten Richmond, La Salle and GW, all of whom have winning A10 records. So there's that. Right or wrong, I view Davidson as a soft finesse team. A Peyton Manning team. Nice offensive stats, if you're into that sort of thing. I think URI can bully them, especially at the Ryan. We are going to need to in order to make sure we secure a bye in Brooklyn. If Davidson can split their games against URI and VCU they will be in great shape because their other three games are at home against bad and/or struggling teams. We have to do our part to make sure that doesn't happen at our expense.

It would also be nice for us if GW would come out of their coma sometime soon. They could help us stay in front of UMass and/or Davidson, and if they could keep their RPI under 100 that would be great.

As far as the A10 race, each of the five teams plays at least one other. Rhody, Dayton and Davidson play two; VCU plays three and UMass plays one. So regardless, something has to give. Because Davidson plays us and VCU, everyone controls their own destiny as of today except UMass (which technically could win out and not pass us or Dayton if either of us were to win out). Should be exciting.

PlayMikeMotenMore · Unread post by **PlayMikeMotenMore** » 9 years ago

A few things...

1) I doubt anybody wins out.
2) Regarding Dayton, every team is beatable.
3) URI could easily go 2-3 the rest of the way.
4) UMASS will have a hard time winning at GW in the last game. That will not be easy. They are not "home free" after VCU.
5) If you think "bullying" Davidson is a strategy, then think again. They're a great shooting team and great executing team. Wish URI could run an offense like that. I think they win 4 of 5.
6) You realize that URI has never won an A-10 regular season title? Never...they have no banners (except for the Lamar prayer banner that won the tourney title.). That's been it. This league has been a Temple/UMASS league with a little bit of St. Joe's and GW league sprinkled in over its history. Understanding we're in an era of unbalanced league schedules in all leagues, it would still be nice to hang a regular season A-10 Title banner.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 9 years ago

PlayMikeMotenMore wrote:A few things...

1) I doubt anybody wins out.
2) Regarding Dayton, every team is beatable.
3) URI could easily go 2-3 the rest of the way.
4) UMASS will have a hard time winning at GW in the last game. That will not be easy. They are not "home free" after VCU.
5) If you think "bullying" Davidson is a strategy, then think again. They're a great shooting team and great executing team. Wish URI could run an offense like that. I think they win 4 of 5.
6) You realize that URI has never won an A-10 regular season title? Never...they have no banners (except for the Lamar prayer banner that won the tourney title.). That's been it. This league has been a Temple/UMASS league with a little bit of St. Joe's and GW league sprinkled in over its history. Understanding we're in an era of unbalanced league schedules in all leagues, it would still be nice to hang a regular season A-10 Title banner.

1. Don't think you'll find many who disagree with that. Not even sure I understand why it needs to be said, but you're probably right.
2. Uh...sure? Dayton is more beatable than most people think, in my opinion. That was my point.
3. Uh...sure? They definitely could go 2-3. They could also go 5-0, although I think either of those scenarios is far less likely than 4-1 or 3-2, which seem like the most probable outcomes.
4. Maybe you have not noticed that GW quit a month ago? I'd like nothing more than to see them take down UMass, but unless they have some kind of revival I don't see it as very likely, unfortunately.
5. Davidson is a fraud, soft, finesse team until they prove otherwise to me. I've been saying that since November and you're not the first person to disagree with me. They have been able to execute their offense and get their shooters clean looks for much of the season, but nobody has been able to do that against to us except Kansas. I don't believe Davidson will. We'll find out soon enough.
6. Uh...sure? This has definitely been a UMass league if we are limiting the discussion to the mid 90s and pretending Xavier never played in the league. But yeah, I agree it would be nice to put a league championship banner up in the Ryan. Would be nice if they actually put up the conference tournament banner from 1999 while they're up there, too.

Great handle, BTW. Welcome to the board.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 9 years ago

Easily go 2-3? What an awful world to live in.

Rhody is playing its best basketball of the year, hell of a time to put together a 2-3 five game stretch.

4-1, 5-0 much more likely to me. UMASS was the hottest team before being slapped out of the Ryan. Doesn't count for anything?

Davidson has to prove it to me too. Very intrigued by the sibert versus Terrell matchup we could potentially get. Or Jarvis? Nice battle.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 9 years ago

Exactly. 4-1 or 5-0 much more likely than 2-3. Saying "easily" along with 2-3 seems disingenuous.

Maybe we can get a breakdown game by game to convince us that we should be prepared for the very good likelihood of 2-3 down the stretch.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 9 years ago

Really for me it comes down to the fact that it seems Hassan Martin just doesn't do 2-3.

Iggy1979 · Unread post by **Iggy1979** » 9 years ago

I have VCU, Dayton and URI going 4-1 and UMass and Davidson going 3-2. I, too, think UMass will lose at GW.

NJ03 · Unread post by **NJ03** » 9 years ago

Seawrightspostgame wrote:Really for me it comes down to the fact that it seems Hassan Martin just doesn't do 2-3.

Neither does TJ Buchanan. Or Jared Terrell. Or EC Mathews, Jarvis Garrett, Gil Biruta, or that Hurley fella.

Rhody83 · Unread post by **Rhody83** » 9 years ago

Something to watch for is Senior Night for the second tier teams:
Dayton @ LaSalle
UMass @ GW
The home team could pull an upset in both of these.

To me URI has three big games left - Davidson, @ LaSalle and @ Dayton.
I am not worried about beating Davidson at home.
The game @ LaSalle is the big one (we have to win that).
Winning at Dayton would be a bonus.

I see Rhody going 4-1 and tieing VCU (and possibly Dayton) for first.
I believe we would be co-champs then.
The tiebreakers are just used for A10 Tournament seeding.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 9 years ago

NJ03 wrote:
Seawrightspostgame wrote:Really for me it comes down to the fact that it seems Hassan Martin just doesn't do 2-3.
Neither does TJ Buchanan. Or Jared Terrell. Or EC Mathews, Jarvis Garrett, Gil Biruta, or that Hurley fella.

Yeah we can step into the light here. It's a different time.

The last 2 games since the St Joes loss, you've seen a different team. I honestly think they needed that jolt to realize they cant just roll the ball out and expect a win.

Both games, against a good and a bad team, they had big leads - and instead of letting those teams back in (like with UMass, or almost every other conference game), they stomped on their throat. St Louis was straight out classed and run out of the gym. UMass got the lead to within 9, and instead of letting it become a game, we put it right back up to 14.

This is a different team than it was 6, 5, even 3 games ago.

I don't forsee a "slip up" game. I think the St Joe's game exercised those demons. Hurley saw the philosophy he's been preaching (if we don't show up we're going to lose) and now the kids learned a lesson the hard way. Went on the road, to a shitty team's building, and pissed the game away.

I think a lot of guys just had it in their heads that they would "find a way" based on how the other games had gone. In all honestly we should've lost the games to Duqesne and Fordham. But we didn't. Which is great. But you can't have a young team to not understand what it's like to lose. To understand that it's possible. Now that they got that wake up, they've been clearly much more focused - on offense, on defense, shooting, free throws, effort, everything.

Even our defense hadn't been itself for the last couple games before St Louis.

I think we can take the helmets off and crawl out of the bunkers.

I think this team is going 4-1 by losing a tough one at La Salle and recovering against Dayton - but with how they're playing right now, it wouldn't be surprising at all if we ran the table.

God damn it's a good time to be a Ram.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 9 years ago

For all the talk of the A10 being in a down year- and truthfully it is- this is shaping up to be a very entertaining ending. I can talk myself into anything from 1-4 to 5-0 for Rhode Island, with varying degrees of certainty.

Interesting how expectations shift- preseason, I had this team at 19-10, 11-7 in conference and would have been fine with it. Now? That would be tough. You have to love what you're hearing from the team. It starts with the staff and is being echoed by the players- they may not have expected to be in the position they're in, but they're here. It's not a pressure situation (that will likely come in the conference tournament), it's an opportunity.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 9 years ago

ace wrote:For all the talk of the A10 being in a down year- and truthfully it is- this is shaping up to be a very entertaining ending. I can talk myself into anything from 1-4 to 5-0 for Rhode Island, with varying degrees of certainty.

Interesting how expectations shift- preseason, I had this team at 19-10, 11-7 in conference and would have been fine with it. Now? That would be tough. You have to love what you're hearing from the team. It starts with the staff and is being echoed by the players- they may not have expected to be in the position they're in, but they're here. It's not a pressure situation (that will likely come in the conference tournament), it's an opportunity.

Agree entirely. Most people had them between 19-20 wins. Based on how the season has gone, I think we'd be disappointed with a 2-3 finish down the stretch, no matter what we predicted preseason.

They have certainly overachieved as a team, and like most have said, are a year early in competing for a conference title.

Yet here we are, competing, if not a favorite to win or share the regular season title.

Predictions are fluid, and where we stand right now changes things. It's clear we are capable of doing great things, and I don't think it's absurd to set your expectations as such.

Obviously 22-7 or 23-6 was an extreme in November - but at 18-6 with winnable games remaining, based on how we're playing - it isn't that crazy after all.

What an awesome season. It's pretty clear for the present and beyond, that Rhody basketball is back. Thank you Dan.

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 9 years ago

Just win the next one, finish one game at a time.....

gorhody89 · Unread post by **gorhody89** » 9 years ago

Some good news...a friend of mine is in like his 6th year at Lasalle and told me that they are on spring break when we play them and that campus will be a ghost town and there won't be many students at game

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 9 years ago

That is good news, plus we will probably have Ace at that game so clearly an advantage there.

skwalk47 · Unread post by **skwalk47** » 9 years ago

I hate to burst anyone's bubbles, but it is indeed a fact that we are way more likely to go 2-3 than 5-0 (I think 3-2 would be the most likely scenario statistically).

Here are our win probabilities according to Real Time RPI's GAMER Model:
@ George Mason 64.8%
Davidson 64.3%
@ LaSalle 31%
@ Dayton 37.3%
St Josephs 86.5%

Simple math here: .648 * .643 * .31 *.373 * .865 = 4.2% = you are disillusion

Now the one number that looks off to me is @ LaSalle, KenPom has URI ~3 pts better than La Salle so that would mean @ LaSalle would essentially be a pick. If you substitute .50 for .31 we end up with a 6.7% chance to win out. If you make us a 60% chance to win @ LaSalle (and I think you would be crazy to do so) we STILL only have a 8.0% chance of winning out.

What is the most likely scenario? 3 wins (EV=3.029).

If i use a 50% probability for the LaSalle game we have a 26.5% chance of winning exactly 4 games. So the odds of 4 or 5 wins (what I think we need to do for a shot at an at large) are 26.5% + 6.7% = 33.2%

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 9 years ago

My position on win probability has always been that it matters in the macro but not as much on a game-to-game basis. I agree with the math here that it is very unlikely we go 5-0, but I think every game is winnable. I find it very hard to believe that this team will lose three of these games, but of course that result is in play until we win three.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 9 years ago

Blue Man wrote:
ace wrote:For all the talk of the A10 being in a down year- and truthfully it is- this is shaping up to be a very entertaining ending. I can talk myself into anything from 1-4 to 5-0 for Rhode Island, with varying degrees of certainty.

Interesting how expectations shift- preseason, I had this team at 19-10, 11-7 in conference and would have been fine with it. Now? That would be tough. You have to love what you're hearing from the team. It starts with the staff and is being echoed by the players- they may not have expected to be in the position they're in, but they're here. It's not a pressure situation (that will likely come in the conference tournament), it's an opportunity.
Agree entirely. Most people had them between 19-20 wins. Based on how the season has gone, I think we'd be disappointed with a 2-3 finish down the stretch, no matter what we predicted preseason.

They have certainly overachieved as a team, and like most have said, are a year early in competing for a conference title.

Yet here we are, competing, if not a favorite to win or share the regular season title.

Predictions are fluid, and where we stand right now changes things. It's clear we are capable of doing great things, and I don't think it's absurd to set your expectations as such.

Obviously 22-7 or 23-6 was an extreme in November - but at 18-6 with winnable games remaining, based on how we're playing - it isn't that crazy after all.

What an awesome season. It's pretty clear for the present and beyond, that Rhody basketball is back. Thank you Dan.

Blue Man,
When you say most people had URI at 19-20 wins you make it sound like the majority would be more logical, more balanced, and that 22-7 or 23-6 were extreme (or nuts)

There were 5 our of 88 that predicted 14-4 for conference, 12 picked 13-5. Pretty good number of posters looked for the season to be very strong - and this prediction is with $100 on the line - so one would assume that they are predicting what they really think will happen versus what they emotionally want to have happen (although it is admittedly hard to separate the two)

I think Dan is saying the team has exceeded expectations and nobody could have predicted this makes everyone feel good and especially the players - but I would be surprised if Dan did not think this kind of achievement was actually possible.

But overall last year the average poster overestimated the team in the Poll, and this year the majority underestimated the team.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 9 years ago

The local media is taking notice:

http://www.providencejournal.com/articl ... /150219135

http://www.providencejournal.com/articl ... 9144/13933

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 9 years ago

ramster wrote:
Blue Man wrote:
ace wrote:For all the talk of the A10 being in a down year- and truthfully it is- this is shaping up to be a very entertaining ending. I can talk myself into anything from 1-4 to 5-0 for Rhode Island, with varying degrees of certainty.

Interesting how expectations shift- preseason, I had this team at 19-10, 11-7 in conference and would have been fine with it. Now? That would be tough. You have to love what you're hearing from the team. It starts with the staff and is being echoed by the players- they may not have expected to be in the position they're in, but they're here. It's not a pressure situation (that will likely come in the conference tournament), it's an opportunity.
Agree entirely. Most people had them between 19-20 wins. Based on how the season has gone, I think we'd be disappointed with a 2-3 finish down the stretch, no matter what we predicted preseason.

They have certainly overachieved as a team, and like most have said, are a year early in competing for a conference title.

Yet here we are, competing, if not a favorite to win or share the regular season title.

Predictions are fluid, and where we stand right now changes things. It's clear we are capable of doing great things, and I don't think it's absurd to set your expectations as such.

Obviously 22-7 or 23-6 was an extreme in November - but at 18-6 with winnable games remaining, based on how we're playing - it isn't that crazy after all.

What an awesome season. It's pretty clear for the present and beyond, that Rhody basketball is back. Thank you Dan.
Blue Man,
When you say most people had URI at 19-20 wins you make it sound like the majority would be more logical, more balanced, and that 22-7 or 23-6 were extreme (or nuts)

There were 5 our of 88 that predicted 14-4 for conference, 12 picked 13-5. Pretty good number of posters looked for the season to be very strong - and this prediction is with $100 on the line - so one would assume that they are predicting what they really think will happen versus what they emotionally want to have happen (although it is admittedly hard to separate the two)

I think Dan is saying the team has exceeded expectations and nobody could have predicted this makes everyone feel good and especially the players - but I would be surprised if Dan did not think this kind of achievement was actually possible.

But overall last year the average poster overestimated the team in the Poll, and this year the majority underestimated the team.

I'm simply basing the fact that what the majority does, sets the expectations. Just based on statistics, 20% of the people picking something higher than the 80% majority, would call it extreme.

I think all of the factors, especially being a very young team, lead people to be more cautious with their predictions.

I think a 19 or 20 win season was going to be very strong based on where we've come from, and the makeup of our team. Hurley is an aggressive realist, if not a pessimist - which makes him a better coach. Having a negative outlook forces you to be hungry, rather than being satisfied where you are. I don't think Dan is lying about not thinking we would be here. Like most of us, I assume Dan probably thought we would be in the 19-20 win range, and hope to shock some people in Brooklyn.

This season has been a pleasant surprise to all of us.

I think next year he would be lying if he expected less of that team - but he's always been a realist. This team is an NIT team playing at a very high level that could wind up in the NCAA's. Next year's team is an NCAA team looking to make noise.

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 9 years ago

I couldn't care less who expected what. Especially after last season's
horrid predictions.
I had them at 17 wins. I thought a winning season would be a boost up
from all the prior losing ones.
Glad to be wrong.
Now, someone is saying Lasalle is the toughest game left, when Dayton hasn't
lost at Dayton since last January?
I think 5-0 is very possible.
Lasalle is up and down. If we control the boards with them, we should be fine.
I'm sick of the national media hyping Davidson. I hope we bomb them.
I hate St. Joe's and like umASS, we owe them a beating.
GM? Thompson will be very tough for Hassan. He's 6'10"
and has 17 double doubles. Very active in the post.
Still, a winnable game.
Dayton. Well, they almost lost to St. Joe's last night.
No depth. No size. Good offensive discipline.
It comes down to controlling the 3 point line.
We do that, and get up on the boards, we win.
Easier said than done.
Just win, baby!

skwalk47 · Unread post by **skwalk47** » 9 years ago

TruePoint wrote:My position on win probability has always been that it matters in the macro but not as much on a game-to-game basis. I agree with the math here that it is very unlikely we go 5-0, but I think every game is winnable. I find it very hard to believe that this team will lose three of these games, but of course that result is in play until we win three.

Well the odds of 3-2 are 37.1% so if you combine that with the 33.2% chance we win 4 or more, the odds of 3 or more is 70.3% so them losing 3 games would be less than 30% chance.

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 9 years ago

Good think they have to play the games, huh?

Rhody74 · Unread post by **Rhody74** » 9 years ago

5-0 is possible, though I would bet it would be 4-1. We match up well with Dayton and we've played well there in the past. LaSalle is a classic trap game, but I don't think a Hurley-coached team has trap games. When we've lost, it was not due to lack of effort. Now that our guards are shooting better, I have to think we've got a good shot at winning out.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 9 years ago

per rpi forecast:
chance to go 5-0: 5.85%
chance to go 4-1: 25.68%
chance to go 3-2: 38.24%
chance to go 2-3: 23.44%
chance to go 1-4: 6.17%
chance to go 0-5: 0.61%

gorhody89 · Unread post by **gorhody89** » 9 years ago

Can we stop trying to be Billy Bean and just take one game at a time

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 9 years ago

I think Davidson will be tough:
- Very favorable home schedule remaining - only team with 4 of their last 5 games at home.
- Jack Gibbs is back from having sat out 7 games with and injury. He played 14 minutes last game scoring 11 points
- Gibbs gets one more game against Fordham under his belt and then the all important game

Davidson is a huge game for us. We must beat them. We beat Davidson I think we run the table, even at Dayton.

Davidson remaining schedule:
Fordham
@Rhode Island
GW
VCU
Duquesne

skwalk47 · Unread post by **skwalk47** » 9 years ago

twisted3829 wrote:per rpi forecast:
chance to go 5-0: 5.85%
chance to go 4-1: 25.68%
chance to go 3-2: 38.24%
chance to go 2-3: 23.44%
chance to go 1-4: 6.17%
chance to go 0-5: 0.61%

Much easier than me doing this longhand, where did you find it?

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 9 years ago

skwalk47 wrote:
twisted3829 wrote:per rpi forecast:
chance to go 5-0: 5.85%
chance to go 4-1: 25.68%
chance to go 3-2: 38.24%
chance to go 2-3: 23.44%
chance to go 1-4: 6.17%
chance to go 0-5: 0.61%
Much easier than me doing this longhand, where did you find it?

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Rhode%20Island.html

skwalk47 · Unread post by **skwalk47** » 9 years ago

Thanks.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 9 years ago

I just want to say that I don't want this to turn into an RPI discussion. Obie has a great thread for that. I want this thread to be more about the horse race, not just from our perspective but from a conference perspective (obviously there will be a focus on us that is unavoidable).

I think there are some interesting things to watch for all the teams involved, as I tried to highlight in the OP.

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 9 years ago

Teams. Not percentages set by whomever.
If we went by that, then Kentucky shouldn't bother
playing their remaining games, and just have the NCAA
trophy sent to them.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 9 years ago

Great run down of what's ahead TruePoint. The fun starts tomorrow at noon with UMass against VCU. If VCU loses we control our destiny to be the sole regular season champion, if UMass loses then we'd be a game and a half up on them for a bye with a magic number of 4 before we take the court in Virginia. Sounds like either way, we win.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 9 years ago

Percentage of... Bla bla, clearly doesn't account for the fact dan's 3 teams here have all defended the 3 point line basically the best in the league.

So what now with Davidson and Dayton?

Lasalle? Can price play his game against JT? He didn't before....

St joes! Ugh.

The pessimists are not accounting for this team gelling down the stretch.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 9 years ago

RhowdyRam02 wrote:Great run down of what's ahead TruePoint. The fun starts tomorrow at noon with UMass against VCU. If VCU loses we control our destiny to be the sole regular season champion, if UMass loses then we'd be a game and a half up on them for a bye with a magic number of 4 before we take the court in Virginia. Sounds like either way, we win.

Yup. One of the most interesting things about this upcoming stretch is that nobody can really say they know for sure who VCU is now, post-Weber. Including the game that Weber went down in, they were 1-3 in the immediate aftermath of losing him. They've since won their last two handily, but those games were against free-falling GW and last place SLU. And in that context, VCU has the toughest set of games to close out the regular season and they will impact that final standing of these five teams the most because they play everyone but us. What VCU is now will become evident over the next few weeks and will go a long way to determining the final league standings.

skwalk47 · Unread post by **skwalk47** » 9 years ago

rodfromcranston wrote:Teams. Not percentages set by whomever.
If we went by that, then Kentucky shouldn't bother
playing their remaining games, and just have the NCAA
trophy sent to them.

Actually according to ESPN Kentucky has a 69.8% chance of not winning the tournament

seanmc94 · Unread post by **seanmc94** » 9 years ago

I wonder if Vegas will have odds for taking the field vs. UK this year.

bressler3south · Unread post by **bressler3south** » 9 years ago

gorhody89 wrote:Some good news...a friend of mine is in like his 6th year at Lasalle and told me that they are on spring break when we play them and that campus will be a ghost town and there won't be many students at game

You can tell him Student Deferment for Nam is over…..

neil · Unread post by **neil** » 9 years ago

02 - good thoughts about the VCU -Umass game. It been awhile since we had games where it ends up win/win. I do think we are turning a corner, our freshmen are no longer freshmen. Go rhody!

skwalk47 · Unread post by **skwalk47** » 9 years ago

seanmc94 wrote:I wonder if Vegas will have odds for taking the field vs. UK this year.

NCAA Basketball - National Champion
28001 Kentucky wins NCAA Champ +100
28002 Field wins NCAA Championship -140

RAM67 · Unread post by **RAM67** » 9 years ago

August 1965. Put in application for deferment with a very unfriendly Draft Board clerk on Friday afternoon at 3:30 PM. Monday morning mail arrived with my denial.

PlayMikeMotenMore · Unread post by **PlayMikeMotenMore** » 9 years ago

I don't think GW has quit. If you've been around college basketball players, then it's rare for a team to quit. Usually teams quit if...

1) They stink to begin with.(GW does not stink.)
2) They hate their coach and/or he's going to be fired. (Lonergan not going to be fired.)
or
3) There's a bad apple/rift/chemistry in the lockeroom. (Not at GW, definitely at Seton Hall.)

gorhody89 · Unread post by **gorhody89** » 9 years ago

bressler3south wrote:
gorhody89 wrote:Some good news...a friend of mine is in like his 6th year at Lasalle and told me that they are on spring break when we play them and that campus will be a ghost town and there won't be many students at game
You can tell him Student Deferment for Nam is over…..

Hahaha he's an athlete there and has had a couple of medical redshirts...

BPR2010 · Unread post by **BPR2010** » 9 years ago

Is it possible that GW just wasn't as good as some thought going into conference play? Their win over Wichita was nice but honestly, they might just belong in that 2nd tier with Richmond/LaSalle/Bonnies. Also, they've played a brutal stretch the past 6 games. They're honestly lucky to not be on a 6 game losing streak (buzzer beater against Dayton). "Good" teams in college basketball don't follow the trend that GW has the past few weeks. I had even mentioned in the games of interest for week 13 that the Duquesne game they had was a classic trap situation. Riding high off an intense game with Dayton, sandwich a road game against a bottom feeder, then face VCU.

I think they're still a decent team, just clear they aren't in the upper echelon of the A-10. However, still a team that wouldn't shock me to make a run in Brooklyn.

URIFIJI · Unread post by **URIFIJI** » 9 years ago

My two cents (or Five Cents Cigar)

Rhody is most likely to be 4-1 or 3-2................if we win tomorrow and then hold home court on our two remaining games - we will be Top 4 in the League. We go 4-1 and I think we would be Co-Champs.

This team is on a trajectory upward. Its not like the JB years where we were "holding on for life" in Feb/March. They are confident and hungry.

This could be the year we get the gorilla off of our back. TOURNEY TIME. I am looking forward to scrambling for plane tickets and hotels on Sunday night - March 15th.

Let's CLOSE THIS THING OUT.

Bleeding Rhody Blue

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 9 years ago

RAM67 wrote:August 1965. Put in application for deferment with a very unfriendly Draft Board clerk on Friday afternoon at 3:30 PM. Monday morning mail arrived with my denial.

I feel your pain. I tried to get a deferment on the grounds of wanting to go to Woodstock. No dice.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 9 years ago

Here's a premature thought, but screw it. All A10 teams play their last game of the season on Saturday, March 7th. We're scheduled at 2 and the game's on OSN. UMass starts at 3:30 on NBCSN. VCU 5:30 on NBCSN. Dayton 6 on CBSSN. Davidson at 7 with no known TV coverage. If it comes down to tiebreakers and things like that, are we helped or hurt by being the first team to play? When our game is done UMass won't have hit half time yet and the other three schools will go into their games knowing our fate. If we're hurt by this, should we be looking to change our start time? Where we're not dealing with national TV for that game, it seems like we might have a little flexibility.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 9 years ago

RhowdyRam02 wrote:Here's a premature thought, but screw it. All A10 teams play their last game of the season on Saturday, March 7th. We're scheduled at 2 and the game's on OSN. UMass starts at 3:30 on NBCSN. VCU 5:30 on NBCSN. Dayton 6 on CBSSN. Davidson at 7 with no known TV coverage. If it comes down to tiebreakers and things like that, are we helped or hurt by being the first team to play? When our game is done UMass won't have hit half time yet and the other three schools will go into their games knowing our fate. If we're hurt by this, should we be looking to change our start time? Where we're not dealing with national TV for that game, it seems like we might have a little flexibility.

I'd say somewhere between helped or no affect at all. Worry about yourself and win.

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 9 years ago

Hell no! We start first. We win and it puts pressure on
every team close to us.
I love it! (only if we win, of course) Plus, we can get home after
our game and watch the rest play out.
If we have one in the bag, it's going to be fun to root against
UMass, VCU, Dayton and Davidson.
If we win out, only VCU is an issue that day, because we'll have beaten
UMass, Dayton and Davidson, and own any tie breakers with anyone
but VCU..

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 9 years ago

I can see both sides of it. If you win, that puts extra pressure on everyone after you. Picture this on the other side of the coin though. URI and VCU are tied going into the last day. URI loses, so before VCU starts they know they have the first seed wrapped up. Treveon Graham's been nursing a bum ankle, so VCU can sit him out and get him extra rest leading into the A10 tournament. Ideally I'd like to start no earlier than the 3:30 UMass time.