KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

OK, so here is my tracker. Will update as results come in. We want to see this thing littered with red before we play on Friday. Today, go Va Tech, DePaul, Duke, Washington, Miami, Oregon St. and UVA! Fultz is not playing for Washington, so there goes my fantasy of future Celtic great Fultz knocking USC out of the tournament and opening a spot for Rhody.

I realized that I don't have to keep posting this as I update and it will keep updating the OP as I make changes in google docs (technology is rad). So I'm just going to separate this out into its own thread. People can keep the convo going in the bracketology thread, just wanted to make the tracker easy to find in case anyone else finds it useful.

Thanks for putting in the work!

Yeah this is awesome.

Nice work!

Three bubble teams down

this is fantastic

I love your embedded Google sheet here. Well done!

In today's bubble games:

Fourth to last in USC plays #3 UCLA at 11:30 on the Pac 12 Network
Third to last in Vanderbilt plays Texas A&M at 7 on the SEC Network
Second to last in Iowa plays Indiana at 6:30 on ESPN2
First out Kansas State plays #9 Baylor at 9 on ESPNU
Fourth out Illinois plays Michigan at noon on Big 10 Network
Bubble teams Marquette and Seton Hall face off at 2:30 on FS1
Bubble team Providence plays Creighton at 9:30 on FS1
Bubble team Xavier plays #18 Butler at 7 on FS1
Bubble team Michigan state plays Penn State at 2:25 on the Big 10 Network
Bubble team California plays Utah at 5:30 on the Pac 12 Network
Bubble team Georgia plays Tennessee at 1 on the SEC Network
Bubble team Mississippi plays Missouri at 9:25 on the SEC Network
Bubble team Middle Tennessee plays UT-San Antonio at 12:30
Bubble team Nevada plays Utah State at 3 on CBS Sports

Good on tracking UGA, Ole Miss and Nevada. Maybe I will add them up top if I can find a few minutes today.

RhowdyRam02 wrote:In today's bubble games:

Fourth to last in USC plays #3 UCLA at 11:30 on the Pac 12 Network
Third to last in Vanderbilt plays Texas A&M at 7 on the SEC Network
Second to last in Iowa plays Indiana at 6:30 on ESPN2
First out Kansas State plays #9 Baylor at 9 on ESPNU
Fourth out Illinois plays Michigan at noon on Big 10 Network
Bubble teams Marquette and Seton Hall face off at 2:30 on FS1
Bubble team Providence plays Creighton at 9:30 on FS1
Bubble team Xavier plays #18 Butler at 7 on FS1
Bubble team Michigan state plays Penn State at 2:25 on the Big 10 Network
Bubble team California plays Utah at 5:30 on the Pac 12 Network
Bubble team Georgia plays Tennessee at 1 on the SEC Network
Bubble team Mississippi plays Missouri at 9:25 on the SEC Network
Bubble team Middle Tennessee plays UT-San Antonio at 12:30
Bubble team Nevada plays Utah State at 3 on CBS Sports

RR thanks for pulling this together!

Question - where are you getting the rankings from? I'm trying to follow on so many sites but I hadn't seen Iowa in the field on Bracket Matrix.

The first game up is at 12:20 between fourth out Illinois and Michigan. Nobody was hurt yesterday afternoon when Michigan's plane had to abort its takeoff and went off the runway. Michigan landed this morning just before 9 for today's game and looks like they don't have their regular team uniforms with them so will be playing in their practice uniforms. On Illinois: (17-13) – Just when you thought Illinois was playing its way in, the Illini lost at Rutgers on Saturday, pushing them back outside the field. A recent sweep of Northwestern plus last Wednesday’s win over Michigan State gives them seven victories against at-large hopefuls and 10 Top 100 wins. Even so, a loss to Michigan on Thursday would probably spell the end.

Blue Man wrote:RR thanks for pulling this together!

Question - where are you getting the rankings from? I'm trying to follow on so many sites but I hadn't seen Iowa in the field on Bracket Matrix.

My pleasure. As of now I'm going off of assemblycall.com, the top rated bracketoligist according to bracketmatrix. He's updating his bracket everyday and his bubble everyday. You can find his bubble predictions here: http://assemblycall.com/bracketology-br ... ch-3-9-17/

On Iowa, he has them on the deep bubble at this point. I figured seeing as I was already on the page and doing it I might as well just include everyone relevant.

The next game up, at 12:30, is Middle Tennessee taking on UT-San Antonio. On Middle Tennessee: (26-4) – If not for a loss at sub-200 UTEP, the Blue Raiders would be close to a lock thanks to a 4-1 mark against the Top 100 and a great non-conference strength of schedule. They finished C-USA play at 17-1 after the regular season finale against FAU, and if they can get to the conference finals, I give them a solid chance.

The next game, tipping off at 1, is Georgia against Tennessee. On Georgia: (17-13) – Selfishly I’d love to see J.J. Frazier get the Bulldogs to the tournament, but that seems like a long shot thanks to a 1-8 mark against the Top 50 and no wins over surefire at-large teams. They probably need to win the SEC Tournament at this point, but wins over Tennessee and Kentucky are the first challenges on the way to that goal.

Wheres Michigan in all of this? Beating up Illinois right now.

Michigan is considered a lock. They're on all bracketmatrix brackets with an average seed of 8.81

How about Oklahoma State?

They're going to have a losing conference record, an RPI of 104, 4-7 vs the top 50, 7-13 vs the top 100 and 2 loses to opponents above 100 rpi.

And they're considered a lock and a 7-8 seed? I know they have a couple good wins, but the rest is so bad.

Edit: my bad. I was using the cbs rpi comparison tool and must've selected the wrong team or something?

Oklahoma State has an RPI right now of 35

Yeah, that makes a difference. But the losing conf record is gross.

I've already made my thoughts known on that multiple times here. I don't believe losing conference record teams should be eligible.

Michigan thumps Illinois, 75-55, probably ending Illinois' at large hopes. 2-0 on the day.

Middle Tennessee beats UT-San Antonio 86-70. As my cousin pointed out, it's probably best for us for them to win the conference tournament and take them out of the at large talk, so I'll count that as a win for us. 3-0 on the day.

Georgia is up on Tennessee 47-46 with 7:01 to go. Could really use Tennessee to come back here.

We now head off to the Big East, for a battle of bubble teams tips off now between Marquette and Seton Hall.

On Marquette: (19-11) – A home win over Villanova carries some serious weight, which is great news given Marquette’s ugly non-conference strength of schedule. After last week’s wins over Xavier and Creighton, the Golden Eagles have seven Top 50 wins (a number of them against injury-depleted foes), but they are just one game over .500 against the Top 200. They are close to a lock for me at this point, and a win over Seton Hall on Thursday would finalize it.

On Seton Hall: (20-10) – A huge road win over Butler gave the Pirates their fourth Top 50 win overall and their first over a team at full strength. They have just one sub-100 loss and are 12-10 against the RPI Top 200, which is more than some bubble teams can claim. Seton Hall takes on Marquette on Thursday with the winner likely to move to lock status.

At 3:00, it's back to the Big 10 for Michigan State against Penn State. On Michigan State: (18-13) – The Spartans would have moved to lock status with a win at Illinois or at Maryland, but they came up short in both. MSU has five Top 50 wins, but a home loss to Northeastern complicates things a bit. Their first Big Ten Tournament game will come against Penn State, and a win their would give Sparty a chance to beat Minnesota for the third time this season.

Finally, at 3 in the Mountain West, it's Nevada against Utah State. On Nevada: (25-6) – On paper the seven Top 100 wins look nice, but a sweep of Boise State accounts for their only victories over Top 70 teams. In the end I don’t think the resume is strong enough to get an at-large, but I suppose winning out until the MWC Finals could make things interesting.

Georgia was able to hold on 59-57. Bubble teams are now 68-55 in games I've tracked.

Umm... WTF is TCU doing to Kansas? Jayhawks down 11 at the 14 minute mark

Seton Hall wins the battle of the bubble teams over Marquette 82-76. Does this make Seton Hall a lock? Does Marquette need to worry about their tournament hopes now? Bubble teams are 69-56 in games I've tracked.

urirx wrote:Umm... WTF is TCU doing to Kansas? Jayhawks down 11 at the 14 minute mark

Kansas remembered they were Kansas. Thank God... otherwise we would hear about how this one win makes TCU an at large team

Michigan State beats Penn State 78-51 and advances to play Minnesota. Bubble teams are 70-56 in games I've tracked.

RhowdyRam02 wrote:Georgia was able to hold on 59-57. Bubble teams are now 68-55 in games I've tracked.

I feel like a win over Tennessee doesn't move the needle on them. Still only 1 top 50 win in 9 tries.

Probably not, but it gives them a shot at #8 Kentucky tomorrow at 1. If they can pull off an upset there...

would be nice if Kansas can overcome the 3 point deficit and beat TCU, don't need them entering the convo

Nevada beats Utah State 83-69. Bubble teams are 71-56 in games I've tracked.

TCU is 6-12 in conference. I really hope a win here doesn't get them back into the bubble conversation.

Justns11 wrote:TCU is 6-12 in conference. I really hope a win here doesn't get them back into the bubble conversation.

I was thinking that too.

but literally a questionable foul, two easy shots are basically airballs, TCU throws it out of bounds, the refs change the score. We are getting the benefit of the Jayhawk here.

RowdyRam02 wrote:Nevada beats Utah State 83-69. Bubble teams are 71-56 in games I've tracked.

to be fair, as a URI fan, This is the result we want, NEvada winning their conference eliminates them as an at large challenge

At 5:30 California will try to keep their bubble hopes alive against Utah. The two teams split their season series, with each winning on their home court. Cal won 77-75 in double OT at the beginning of February and Utah won 74-44 last Thursday. On Cal: (20-11) – By virtue of losing at both Utah and Colorado last week, a deep Pac-12 Tournament run is a must. The Bears beat Oregon State on Wednesday to start that journey, albeit by just five points. They currently have just one win over an at-large caliber team, which came against fellow bubbler USC by a single point. Next up is a rematch with Utah.

and TCU beats Kansas. ugh. add them to the tracker unfortunately....

Well..

Unbelievable, Kansas chokes it up to TCU 85-82. We'll see if that's enough to get TCU on the bubble.

RhowdyRam02 wrote:Unbelievable, Kansas chokes it up to TCU 85-82. We'll see if that's enough to get TCU on the bubble.

They went 6-12!!!!! in conference

while they won't necessarily be on the bubble another win would put them in the conversation

Tipping off at 6:30 we have second to last in Iowa against Indiana. On Iowa: (18-13) – Perhaps even more surprising than Illinois is the fact that Iowa has played its way into the conversation after beating both Maryland and Wisconsin on the road. The Hawkeyes now boast five Top 50 wins and are 8-10 against the Top 100. Sub-100 losses to Memphis and Omaha contributed to a 13-13 mark versus the Top 200, but a win over Indiana on Thursday would give them another crack at the Badgers.

At 7 we get third to last in Vanderbilt taking on Texas A&M: (17-14) – Vandy jumped out to a big lead at Rupp Arena against Kentucky but couldn’t hold on for what could have been a critical victory. The Commodores did bounce back to sweep Florida on Saturday. They boast the nation’s toughest non-conference schedule, which coupled with five Top 40 wins gives them a compelling case. That said, a 20-point loss at Mizzou, as well as the 14 total losses are potential issues heading into the SEC Tournament. Vandy takes on Texas A&M in their first game, and Florida awaits for a third time if they can take care of business.

No team has ever made the tournament as an at large with 15 losses.

Also at 7, Xavier plays #18 Butler. Xavier's blurb: (20-12) – The Musketeers’ RPI is decent with just one sub-100 loss, but they are just 5-6 since losing Edmond Sumner to injury with three of those wins coming against DePaul. With three victories against the RPI Top 50 and seven against the Top 100, I feel relatively good about Xavier, but a win over Butler in the Big East Quarterfinals would likely move them to lock status.

At 9 we get one of, if not the most, critical bubble games for URI as Kansas State goes up against #9 Baylor. (19-12) – The Wildcats came into the week with three terrific wins against West Virginia at home and on the road against Baylor and Oklahoma State, and they took care of business in games at TCU and home against Texas Tech to finish 8-10 in the league. Even so, they are just 5-10 against the Top 100, were recently blown out by 30 at Oklahoma, and have a less than impressive non-conference strength of schedule, which puts a lot of pressure on their Big 12 Tournament matchup with Baylor on Thursday.