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Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:37 pm
by eli#10
OK here we go: I know it is hard to believe but I think we are still very alive in our chances of getting an at-large bid to the Tournament. Today's NCAA RPI has us at #40. Today's Lunardi's Bracketology has us as the 5th team out and has the following teams in:
Lunardi seeding RPI
Michigan 11 61
Syracuse 11 70
Seton Hall 12 45
Michigan St 10 41
Iowa St 7 55
Miami 9 45
Clemson 11 56
Marquette 11 82
Arkansas 12 42
The 1st 4 out include:
Tennessee 44
Georgia Tech 76
Indiana 87
This makes you wonder what criteria Lunardi uses. Marquette, Indiana and Georgia Tech really do not make any sense.
I say that if we can win 5 out of our last 6 regular season games 9 (including VCU) we should be in good shape heading into the A-10 tourney.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:40 pm
by TruePoint
Shitty power 5 teams get credit for stumbling into a good win every once in a while because they get dozens of chances.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:47 pm
by rambone 78
And our RPI really means squat against those teams......the committee will take 50ish RPI P5 teams over us.
Happens every year, and this year will be no different.
If RPI was the only criteria, we'd likely get in. But it isn't, and we won't.
We have a path to get an at large...unlikely as it is.....win a minimum of 5 of out 6 including VCU and get to the finals of the A10T.
Even if we sweep the last 6, I think we're out unless we get a win over VCU or Dayton in Pittsburgh.
I will be amazed if it happens.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:32 pm
by NYGFan_Section208
I think it'll happen...brace yourself. 5 out of 6...reach the finals in Pitts = IN (like Flynn)
Starts with a 20 point thumping of the MetroRams Weds.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:06 pm
by Rhodymob05
Cuse' with a big L tonight.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:07 pm
by Rhodymob05
Besides stats there's always the eye test, I think we've played pretty well on national TV.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:12 pm
by Running Ram
No disconnect here, we're def still in the conversation, we are a bubble team, that puts us in the conversation, not good enough though, for a team that was supposed to be top 25 that is.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:20 pm
by ramfan85
One thing is for certain. We cannot be one and done in Pitt. no matter what our season record is.
As for an at large bid, we may be mathematically alive, but, the fat lady is definitely clearing her throat.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:25 pm
by BPR2010
Not really seeing a disconnect. RPI is a factor, not a be-all end-all. Road wins, SOS, Top-50, Top-100 wins are all extremely important factors as well. According to RPIForecast, we're 1-4 against projected top 50 teams, 2-7 vs. Top 100 teams. This is the same story every year. We beat up on sub-100 teams and lose the big quality games. That's a trend considering we haven't made a tournament in 17 years.
Look at a team like MSU right now. 41 RPI with a 17 SOS. 4-5 against Top-50 teams, 6-9 vs. Top-100 teams (projected). You honestly think URI's resume is better than that? Despite having less chances, look at the win %'s. We blew our shots at solidifying a berth by losing to the Valpo's, PC's, and Houston's.
Win big games, and we'd be fine. Beating Cincinnati is legitimately the only reason we're still in the conversation right now. We'd be 0-for against top 50 teams without that. I give Hurley credit for playing a tougher OOC than we normally do, but c'mon. We didn't win any of the tough games we had to win. Belmont is our 2nd best win (going) by RPI right now. To compound it, unfortunately, the A-10 had a down year as well which has made it even tougher.
Our one saving grace is that it is a VERY soft bubble this year. Still opportunities for sure, but based on how we play in games against tournament-quality teams, does anyone think we honestly run the table? Sure it's "mathematically" possible, but it's "mathematically" possible for 351 teams in the nation right now as well. That's a blanket statement any fanbase can make. I choose to use my eyes, and look at our results against quality competition, and we simply don't add up to a tournament team right now. Sorry to be a downer, but just basing it on what I've seen.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:28 pm
by Seawrightspostgame
I think win the last 6 and win 2 in Pittsburgh and definitely in.
Something close to that and some of the teams on our OOC finishing their schedules like gangbusters could help if many of the bubble teams falter down the stretch.
Its all in play. Just not in the position you want to be in.
Can the Jarvis Garrett Factor save the day? Langevine got some trial by fire with Martin's health/foul issues. Dowtin got some trial by fire with Jarvis's health problems. Could come back to help us. Or lend an excuse to the informed fan 10 years from now.
Tales From The Future Board posts:
Poster #1:"You have to remember Martin and Jarvis (2/5 starters) that year were out for multiple weeks and EC just came back from that horrific injury."
Poster #2:"Give me a break, Martin never even beat PC."
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:37 pm
by NYGFan_Section208
Rhodymob05 wrote:Cuse' with a big L tonight.
That's what I thought when I was watching it (am a large fan of the orange), but thinking now...they were 8-5 ACC going in, with 5 games left. Win one more and they're at least .500 in THE conference...I think that gets them in. Weird ending schedule...L'ville, GA Tech, Duke, L'ville again, GA Tech again....
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:44 pm
by NYGFan_Section208
BPR2010 wrote:Not really seeing a disconnect. RPI is a factor, not a be-all end-all. Road wins, SOS, Top-50, Top-100 wins are all extremely important factors as well. According to RPIForecast, we're 1-4 against projected top 50 teams, 2-7 vs. Top 100 teams. This is the same story every year. We beat up on sub-100 teams and lose the big quality games. That's a trend considering we haven't made a tournament in 17 years.
Look at a team like MSU right now. 41 RPI with a 17 SOS. 4-5 against Top-50 teams, 6-9 vs. Top-100 teams (projected). You honestly think URI's resume is better than that? Despite having less chances, look at the win %'s. We blew our shots at solidifying a berth by losing to the Valpo's, PC's, and Houston's.
Win big games, and we'd be fine. Beating Cincinnati is legitimately the only reason we're still in the conversation right now. We'd be 0-for against top 50 teams without that. I give Hurley credit for playing a tougher OOC than we normally do, but c'mon. We didn't win any of the tough games we had to win. Belmont is our 2nd best win (going) by RPI right now. To compound it, unfortunately, the A-10 had a down year as well which has made it even tougher.
Our one saving grace is that it is a VERY soft bubble this year. Still opportunities for sure, but based on how we play in games against tournament-quality teams, does anyone think we honestly run the table? Sure it's "mathematically" possible, but it's "mathematically" possible for 351 teams in the nation right now as well. That's a blanket statement any fanbase can make. I choose to use my eyes, and look at our results against quality competition, and we simply don't add up to a tournament team right now. Sorry to be a downer, but just basing it on what I've seen.
They're definitely getting better...5 pretty solid games since the stenchfest at Richmond...looking for a big finish.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:28 pm
by PlayMikeMotenMore
BPR2010 wrote:Not really seeing a disconnect. RPI is a factor, not a be-all end-all. Road wins, SOS, Top-50, Top-100 wins are all extremely important factors as well. According to RPIForecast, we're 1-4 against projected top 50 teams, 2-7 vs. Top 100 teams. This is the same story every year. We beat up on sub-100 teams and lose the big quality games. That's a trend considering we haven't made a tournament in 17 years.
Look at a team like MSU right now. 41 RPI with a 17 SOS. 4-5 against Top-50 teams, 6-9 vs. Top-100 teams (projected). You honestly think URI's resume is better than that? Despite having less chances, look at the win %'s. We blew our shots at solidifying a berth by losing to the Valpo's, PC's, and Houston's.
Win big games, and we'd be fine. Beating Cincinnati is legitimately the only reason we're still in the conversation right now. We'd be 0-for against top 50 teams without that. I give Hurley credit for playing a tougher OOC than we normally do, but c'mon. We didn't win any of the tough games we had to win. Belmont is our 2nd best win (going) by RPI right now. To compound it, unfortunately, the A-10 had a down year as well which has made it even tougher.
Our one saving grace is that it is a VERY soft bubble this year. Still opportunities for sure, but based on how we play in games against tournament-quality teams, does anyone think we honestly run the table? Sure it's "mathematically" possible, but it's "mathematically" possible for 351 teams in the nation right now as well. That's a blanket statement any fanbase can make. I choose to use my eyes, and look at our results against quality competition, and we simply don't add up to a tournament team right now. Sorry to be a downer, but just basing it on what I've seen.
Agree with this post.
URI fails the resume test.
URI fails the eye test.
They have one thing going for them...a solid (not great) RPI. Unfortunately, the RPI is losing some credibility these days.
At the end of the day, URI had their chances this year and will have failed.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:11 am
by rhodyrudder
The A-10 didn't get its regular season champ last year in...
We have ONE WIN!!!!!!!!!
One
Win
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Not 5 or 6, not 4, not 3......
Not even 2...
1
1 single solitary win over a top 50 team.
If you think that's the resume of an at-large...
I don't know what to tell you.
But I would bet a gigantic sum of money that every A-10 at-large over the last FORTY YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
won more than one game against the top 50 to claim their invite.
Even if we beat VCU...
It won't be enough.
The at-large ship sailed.
And the rowboat we're now sitting in is taking on water faster than we can bail.
It's not catching up...
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:33 am
by reef
Can't really get excited about our RPI unless it is below 32
Win 5 of 6 then make the A10 finals and it will be very close too close too call
Hopefully we win the last 6 which means no more bad losses
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:51 am
by PeterRamTime
If we are still in last four out or 5th out territory we can still make up some serious ground.
The more we win and the more other bubble teams lose the higher we climb.
If we win our next three, we will be very close to being in even before we play VCU. Our RPI is 39 right now, after three wins it will be in the mid to low thirties.
Beat VCU whose in the twenties and our RPI will probably be in the twenties as well. We'll also be projected to be in the tournament in most brackets after that. Seeing as we are still on the cusp in almost all other brackets.
Finish up beating st joes and Davidson. 22-8 RPI in the 20's heading into the conference tournament. We'd likely be in after winning the quarterfinal game at that point.
But we can dream.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:32 am
by RF1
The RPI has been getting less weight each year. At the same time, membership is the power conferences appear to have been getting more preferential treatment. Just look at the numbers for the A-10 - number of bids going down and seeds getting much worse.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:24 am
by hrstrat57
PeterRamTime wrote:If we are still in last four out or 5th out territory we can still make up some serious ground.
The more we win and the more other bubble teams lose the higher we climb.
If we win our next three, we will be very close to being in even before we play VCU. Our RPI is 39 right now, after three wins it will be in the mid to low thirties.
Beat VCU whose in the twenties and our RPI will probably be in the twenties as well. We'll also be projected to be in the tournament in most brackets after that. Seeing as we are still on the cusp in almost all other brackets.
Finish up beating st joes and Davidson. 22-8 RPI in the 20's heading into the conference tournament. We'd likely be in after winning the quarterfinal game at that point.
But we can dream.
No dream, clear path.
Win
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:32 am
by josephski
RF1 wrote:The RPI has been getting less weight each year. At the same time, membership is the power conferences appear to have been getting more preferential treatment. Just look at the numbers for the A-10 - number of bids going down and seeds getting much worse.
A10 sucks this year, it's that simple. Georgia Tech beat VCU at VCU and that will probably be VCU's only home loss of the season. All of those teams mentioned in the original post, Indiana, Georgia Tech, Marquette could probably win the a10. There's no reason the power conferences and the Big East shouldn't get preferential treatment over a conference like the a10 with the way the a10 is playing.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:40 am
by ATPTourFan
A10 does indeed suck this year, and we're STILL scratching and clawing to win this league.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:10 pm
by RhowdyRam02
Well the top of the league doesn't suck. The middle isn't as good as it usually is and the bottom is just as awful.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:47 pm
by josephski
RhowdyRam02 wrote:Well the top of the league doesn't suck. The middle isn't as good as it usually is and the bottom is just as awful.
You're right, top of the league doesn't suck but it's still probably not as strong as previous years. The bottom of the league might be the only consistent part of the A10 this year. The top of the league seems weaker than usual, the middle is definitely weaker than usual and the bottom is awful which is the norm for the A10. The AAC also isn't having a great year. I don't know what people expect...if the A10 and the AAC are having down years then it's safe to assume more P5/Big East teams will make the tournament than usual.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:02 pm
by UCH21377
josephski wrote:RhowdyRam02 wrote:Well the top of the league doesn't suck. The middle isn't as good as it usually is and the bottom is just as awful.
You're right, top of the league doesn't suck but it's still probably not as strong as previous years. The bottom of the league might be the only consistent part of the A10 this year. The top of the league seems weaker than usual, the middle is definitely weaker than usual and the bottom is awful which is the norm for the A10. The AAC also isn't having a great year. I don't know what people expect...if the A10 and the AAC are having down years then it's safe to assume more P5/Big East teams will make the tournament than usual.
The Mountain West is also very weak. Usually they get some at large bids; doesn't look like it this year.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:15 pm
by PeterRamTime
The mountain west has been down for a few years.
They used to have several really good teams at once.
Now they're a 1 bid league.
San Diego state UNLV colo st BYU New Mexico all used to be really good all in the same year.
This is the first year in a while that up to have or so teams are in the mix for a bid.
It's just been VCU Dayton and us. Nobody else has been close all year.
Typically it's been at least five and a few teams get eaten up in conference play and don't get in.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:29 am
by reef
True Mountsin west is no good either
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:40 am
by rhodylaw
Cuse is really going to need to finish well to get in - if you really look at who they beat, there is 2 nice wins against FSU and Virginia. Other than that they have beat the bottom half of the ACC.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:33 pm
by URI96
Clemson is 4-9 in the conference. That's a .307 percentage if you're scoring at home. They have no business being anywhere near this tournament no matter how good the ACC is.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:02 pm
by ramfan85
Aren't teams supposed to be at least .500 in conference to be considered? It's been so long since we've be relevant for tournament considerations that I must have missed it if this was changed.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:00 pm
by URI2006_Andy
The selection criterion that hurts URI the most is record vs teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI. And that is the most arbitrary criterion used by the committee (assuming they use it.) URI should be making the argument below.
Instead of arbitrarily looking at record against teams based on RPI Rank, a thoughtful committee would look at record against teams based on RPI Score. If the committee wants tier 1 to consist of teams ranked 1-50 then, based on teams' RPI scores, tier 2 should be widened to include teams ranked from 51-190.
As way of illustration, the difference in RPI score between # 1 ranked Baylor and #50 ranked Clemson is .0947. The difference between #51 ranked Kansas State and # 190 ranked North Dakota is less at 0.897.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:27 pm
by BPR2010
NYGFan_Section208 wrote:BPR2010 wrote:Not really seeing a disconnect. RPI is a factor, not a be-all end-all. Road wins, SOS, Top-50, Top-100 wins are all extremely important factors as well. According to RPIForecast, we're 1-4 against projected top 50 teams, 2-7 vs. Top 100 teams. This is the same story every year. We beat up on sub-100 teams and lose the big quality games. That's a trend considering we haven't made a tournament in 17 years.
Look at a team like MSU right now. 41 RPI with a 17 SOS. 4-5 against Top-50 teams, 6-9 vs. Top-100 teams (projected). You honestly think URI's resume is better than that? Despite having less chances, look at the win %'s. We blew our shots at solidifying a berth by losing to the Valpo's, PC's, and Houston's.
Win big games, and we'd be fine. Beating Cincinnati is legitimately the only reason we're still in the conversation right now. We'd be 0-for against top 50 teams without that. I give Hurley credit for playing a tougher OOC than we normally do, but c'mon. We didn't win any of the tough games we had to win. Belmont is our 2nd best win (going) by RPI right now. To compound it, unfortunately, the A-10 had a down year as well which has made it even tougher.
Our one saving grace is that it is a VERY soft bubble this year. Still opportunities for sure, but based on how we play in games against tournament-quality teams, does anyone think we honestly run the table? Sure it's "mathematically" possible, but it's "mathematically" possible for 351 teams in the nation right now as well. That's a blanket statement any fanbase can make. I choose to use my eyes, and look at our results against quality competition, and we simply don't add up to a tournament team right now. Sorry to be a downer, but just basing it on what I've seen.
They're definitely getting better...5 pretty solid games since the stenchfest at Richmond...looking for a big finish.
Glad my eyes don't deceive me just yet in terms of judging how good a basketball team is. This is arguably the worst loss I have seen in my lifetime given the personnel we have, and you can definitively say we are NOT getting better. RIP 2016-2017 season.
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:33 pm
by NYGFan_Section208
BPR2010 wrote:NYGFan_Section208 wrote:BPR2010 wrote:Not really seeing a disconnect. RPI is a factor, not a be-all end-all. Road wins, SOS, Top-50, Top-100 wins are all extremely important factors as well. According to RPIForecast, we're 1-4 against projected top 50 teams, 2-7 vs. Top 100 teams. This is the same story every year. We beat up on sub-100 teams and lose the big quality games. That's a trend considering we haven't made a tournament in 17 years.
Look at a team like MSU right now. 41 RPI with a 17 SOS. 4-5 against Top-50 teams, 6-9 vs. Top-100 teams (projected). You honestly think URI's resume is better than that? Despite having less chances, look at the win %'s. We blew our shots at solidifying a berth by losing to the Valpo's, PC's, and Houston's.
Win big games, and we'd be fine. Beating Cincinnati is legitimately the only reason we're still in the conversation right now. We'd be 0-for against top 50 teams without that. I give Hurley credit for playing a tougher OOC than we normally do, but c'mon. We didn't win any of the tough games we had to win. Belmont is our 2nd best win (going) by RPI right now. To compound it, unfortunately, the A-10 had a down year as well which has made it even tougher.
Our one saving grace is that it is a VERY soft bubble this year. Still opportunities for sure, but based on how we play in games against tournament-quality teams, does anyone think we honestly run the table? Sure it's "mathematically" possible, but it's "mathematically" possible for 351 teams in the nation right now as well. That's a blanket statement any fanbase can make. I choose to use my eyes, and look at our results against quality competition, and we simply don't add up to a tournament team right now. Sorry to be a downer, but just basing it on what I've seen.
They're definitely getting better...5 pretty solid games since the stenchfest at Richmond...looking for a big finish.
Glad my eyes don't deceive me just yet in terms of judging how good a basketball team is. This is arguably the worst loss I have seen in my lifetime given the personnel we have, and you can definitively say we are NOT getting better. RIP 2016-2017 season.
My gosh...can't even really call this one a suckfest...because that would be a serious insult to true suckfests every where. How on earth can a team score 70+ against Dayton and not even crack 45 against this team? Wow....
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:56 pm
by rambone 78
Come on luke and come over to the Dark Side......if this latest debacle doesn't do it......
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:49 pm
by NYGFan_Section208
rambone 78 wrote:Come on luke and come over to the Dark Side......if this latest debacle doesn't do it......
All I want to know is, why are these emojis not available here:
-vomit
-face-palm
Why...?
Having said that...will be watching from Maine on Saturday, El Paso on Tuesday, back at the Ry next Saturday...anyone up for a road trip to Philly on the 1st? and then off to Pittsburgh?
What else is there to do for a non-skier, non-ice fisherman around here in the winter?
Actually...maybe that's a good idea for a new thread..."What else is there to do?"
Re: Major Disconnects
Posted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:57 pm
by rambone 78
Watch real basketball teams play? just a thought......