BubbleWatch and Top 25 Polls

rhodyrudder · Unread post by **rhodyrudder** » 9 years ago

In my opinion we are still on the bubble.
Rpi and no quality wins aside, we're tied for first in a mid-major, and we're also a very good team.
Some have said 4 more wins places us squarely on the bubble and 5 is a lock. Sounds right to me.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 9 years ago

If you play with RPI Wizard, winning the last 3 regular season games would give URI a forecasted RPI of 56 and potentially an outright A10 title. If that happens and they are a 1 in the A10, they could play the 8 seed, at this point projected St. Bonaventure (I think). A win there would give them a forecasted RPI of 49. Assuming best case scenario with tiebreakers, URI could play Dayton in the semis, and a win there would give them a forecasted RPI of 39. A loss to VCU in the championship would give them a projected RPI of 42, and a win 33.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 9 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:If you play with RPI Wizard, winning the last 3 regular season games would give URI a forecasted RPI of 56 and potentially an outright A10 title. If that happens and they are a 1 in the A10, they could play the 8 seed, at this point projected St. Bonaventure (I think). A win there would give them a forecasted RPI of 49. Assuming best case scenario with tiebreakers, URI could play Dayton in the semis, and a win there would give them a forecasted RPI of 39. A loss to VCU in the championship would give them a projected RPI of 42, and a win 33.

So obviously a win in the finals wouldnt matter since we'd be in anyway, but it would be interesting to see what would happen in this scenario of an outright A10 reg season title, a loss in the tourney championship, and an RPI of 42.

I'm not expecting it to happen or anything, and I've been in the "no chance at an at-large bid" camp for awhile now, but when you see the numbers like that I think it's fair to say we'd at least be in the conversation. Still a ton would need to go our way, but it's fun to speculate.

Rhody83 · Unread post by **Rhody83** » 9 years ago

Our chances of winning the A10 outright has to be about 6% so we should get off that.
If we win 5 in a row which will take beating two teams in the Top 4 = two teams in top 50 RPI and two teams currently projected to be in the dance. All of that puts us on the bubble. What a prediction!

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

I think we need to win tomorrow.

Then we have to win next Tuesday.

Then we have to win next Saturday.

Then we have to win the Friday after that. Etc. Etc.

You get the point. One game at a time.

ANY loss in the next 3, and it's a no go for an at-large. We are right on the edge of out of that conversation anyway.

We need to win 2 games to get the bye. To me, that's by far the most important thing we have to do, to have any chance of winning the A10 tourney.

CT Rhody · Unread post by **CT Rhody** » 9 years ago

Winning a high major conf is worth something to the committee and URI still has a chance to do that. I do believe our best and most realistic chance is winning the A-10 tourney however. Hopefully the matchups fall our way in the tourney.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

I think we can beat any team we're matched up with, in any order.

As long as we play our usual D, and shoot just halfway decent from the floor and the FT line.

And stop chucking up 3's.

Tough to do, for 3 days in a row. But every team has to deal with that.

If we were to make the final, us and whoever we play, will be on tired legs. Bad for offense for both teams, which actually might help us, as long as the defense is there.

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 9 years ago

As long as we're going in this direction here, if we make the finals, I'd want to play an upset team that played the extra game.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 9 years ago

I think this is a bad look for ESPN's BPI rating system.... How are we supposed to take it seriously when it's all over the place??

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

Would WE have been on that list if we had beaten Davidson?

Wouldn't really matter if we were. We would still have to win our last 3 games to stay on it.....

5 in a row is a must, to have any chance of an at-large, and I'm not sure that would be enough now.

CTRamfan · Unread post by **CTRamfan** » 9 years ago

.....According to rpi live, the best rpi we can have if we win the next three is 56-58. That coupled with only three top 100rpi wins, will not do it.
.....Two conference championship wins would probably lower the rpi to around 50. If we went 2-1 in the conference turnament, after winning out in the regular season, we would be 24-8, with an rpi of 50, and possobly on the bubble. But, we probably wouldn't go, due to the lack of top 100 wins. Generally 6 will give you consideration, and most teams with 7 make it.

Billyboy78 · Unread post by **Billyboy78** » 9 years ago

Doesn't league play mean anything anymore? There is now a very good chance that VCU comes in 4th place, yet they are a lock. I hate RPI.

BPR2010 · Unread post by **BPR2010** » 9 years ago

According to the official NCAA Selection sheet, league play in itself is not a deciding factor. Full body of work is, however VCU should be looked at post-Weber's injury. They haven't been good really without him.

However, if you're phrasing the league play thing for URI, we don't belong in. We still don't have a win over a tournament-bound team, although that could certainly happen Tuesday. That's the main deciding factor for bubble teams. Have you played quality teams and how many have you won. We have 0 right now. Hate to be a realist, but don't get your hopes up. It's still Brooklyn or bust everyone.

brady1 · Unread post by **brady1** » 9 years ago

No CtRamfan, If you go to RPI Wizard if URI wins out and gets two in the conference tourney they have a 39 RPI. As in Lock. But this talk is silly until we beat FR%AKEN dayton.

GO RHODY!

Billyboy78 · Unread post by **Billyboy78** » 9 years ago

Then what's the point of having a league?

Rhody83 · Unread post by **Rhody83** » 9 years ago

VCU is 3-4 since the game Weber was hurt in. If they lose at Davidson and lose in the semis, they would be 5-6 without him in the 7th ranked league. Losing three of those games to teams with very bad RPI rankings (Bonnies, LaSalle & Richmond). That could put them on the bubble.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 9 years ago

To be fair they also missed graham for a couple of those losses. Although I don't think he has been as good as he was in the past years for the whole season. He's kind of hit or miss this year.

Wait so we beat Dayton and a down st joes team... Win the league? I think Davidson will lose 1.

These are crazy times. Winning the league means a lot to me.

KillSteenKill · Unread post by **KillSteenKill** » 9 years ago

I think we have a better shot to win the conference tourney than to get an at large bid. I know one of the threads is NCAAs or bust but this season is a success regardless and excited to see the rest of it even if it NIT. Obviously next year its NCAAs or its not a success.

Rhody83 · Unread post by **Rhody83** » 9 years ago

Davidson didn't cooperate. If Davidson beats VCU, they would win any tiebreaker. They will have beat VCU, Dayton & URI. They will definitely be in the Tournament.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

VCU and Dayton are in. The Flyers punched their ticket today.

VCU will get in no matter what. They will get another win against GMU.

Davidson is getting closer and closer to a bid. Not a lock, but if they beat VCU Thursday, they will be on the right side of the bubble, and if they beat Duquesne in their last game. I think they're in too.

That leaves poor 'ol us.

The longest shot of the bunch. But we still have a chance.

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 9 years ago

Can't believe it's already the last week of the regular season.
Even if we and Davidson win out they'd give us a share of the title. And be a 2 seed.
Every team in this league is scary to face. One team I'd really not want to see in the quarterfinals is GW. Or at anytime in the tournament. I don't know why exactly, but they would make me the most nervous.
If we are a 1 then it'll either be La Salle or St Bonaventure probably.
Scenarios. So many!
Gotta focus on the flyers. If it goes down to the wire we need to get Marquis Jones in there some how. He'd know how to kill'em!

PlayMikeMotenMore · Unread post by **PlayMikeMotenMore** » 9 years ago

BillyBoy,

Why have conferences? Very simply, conferences/leagues were created due to a number of reasons:

1) Gave universities with similar academic missions, geographies, enrollments, standards, etc. a common playing ground to compete. It thus...
2) Made scheduling a whole lot easier.
3) The scheduling of common opponents on yearly basis makes for great rivalries and the regular season that much more fun. Can you imagine if URI played 27 random opponents every year?
4) The conference season allows for the goal of winning a championship. Teams have can have all types of goals within the course of a season. For example, Team A may have goals: Win Maui Invitational, go 8-1 in non-conference, beat your rival, win your conference, win conference tourney.
5) Winning a conference regular season (despite this era of expanded leagues with unbalanced schedules) means a lot to coaches and players. It's a grind to win a league over 2 months. You have accomplished something pretty special...whether it's a RI high school division title, Little East title for RIC, or A-10 title for URI.

That's why you have a conference. It has nothing to do with NCAA tournament selection. (Heck, Purdue is currently 11-5 in the Big Ten, in 3rd place in the league, and clearly on the NCAA bubble. Committee doesn't give a hoot about Purdue's Big Ten record.)

Billyboy78 · Unread post by **Billyboy78** » 9 years ago

I realize all of that. I just think that 2 month grind should mean more regarding post season. It just doesn't seem right that a 4th place team is a lock and a conference winner is headed for the NIT. Winning that 2 month grind means nothing, yet a 4 day tournament means everything, if you win that. And who you beat in December means more than who you beat in January and February.

scine20 · Unread post by **scine20** » 9 years ago

I don't agree that the Atlantic 10 is a "mid-major." I think if you call it a "mid-major" it has to be considered a high "mid-major." It's a lot like the Mountain West. Too good to be considered just a regular mid-major and not good enough to be considered a top conference.

I actually think that the AAC might be on that level now as well.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 9 years ago

I don't trust some of the bubble analysts. Youre talking Kansas State is 15-15. Miami is not going to suddenly figure out why they have let down in so many games. Lots of teams at 11-15 losses.

The thing is also with these teams, if they dont win the conf title and get an automatic bid then they are definately getting a loss.

Andy Katz said the A10 could get 4 teams saturday. He is probably off but I think it is 3. Dayton is an elite 8 team with a respectable record. VCU is high up by all metrics. Davidson is a darling but the more URI wins, the harder they are to ignore. Maybe it could be 4? Rhody has to keep winning.

Blue Man · Unread post by **Blue Man** » 9 years ago

The only way the A10 gets four teams is if Davidson wins out, and someone other than Davidson, Dayton, or VCU (read: URI) wins Brooklyn.

I really don't understand why the at-large talk is around for us. Even if we beat Dayton tomorrow. It is irrelevant.

The Dayton win would be huge for our program, and huge for our seeding in Brooklyn.

Brooklyn or bust. Stop with the fairytale and let's just focus on getting better to win March 13-15.

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 9 years ago

For me, I love the Rhody talk on all the half time shows
on the different networks.
They are all talking about our NCAA chances.
Don't underestimate the Hurley Factor.
Do you think all these national articles and NYC area
articles would be there if his name was Joe Jones?

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

Blue Man, I like your brand of realism.

When I try to be realistic on here, I'm lambasted for being negative.

Win or lose tomorrow night, we're not getting an at large bid, like you said.

It would be nice, to FINALLY beat a top A10 team. Richmond and UMass don't count. They are second level. It would also be nice to at least share the regular season title.

We will get our chance in NY, as long as we can get to the semis and then the final.

Rod, right now some bracketologists think Bobby and Buffalo are closer to the Dance than we are.

There's the Hurley factor for you. The wrong Hurley, for us anyway. We are also on the same line for the NIT as they are, 4 seeds along with UConn.

Nothing is guaranteed right now, nothing, not even the NIT.

Seawrightspostgame · Unread post by **Seawrightspostgame** » 9 years ago

Yeah Rod I think Hurley's brand gets us a better look. The only given is winning the conf tourney. I think Dan Hurley a young exciting team and a league title will put us squarely on the bubble.

The thing is the other bubble teams have BAD losses, like alot. Or awful records.

There is no absolute line that places you in the tournament as an At-large, it takes politics. Dan Hurley doesn't have clout? we get more NYC press than we do in PCJOURNAL.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 9 years ago

Blue Man wrote:The only way the A10 gets four teams is if Davidson wins out, and someone other than Davidson, Dayton, or VCU (read: URI) wins Brooklyn.

I really don't understand why the at-large talk is around for us. Even if we beat Dayton tomorrow. It is irrelevant.

The Dayton win would be huge for our program, and huge for our seeding in Brooklyn.

Brooklyn or bust. Stop with the fairytale and let's just focus on getting better to win March 13-15.

I agree with this basically 99.9%, I think there is a remote chance that winning out up until the conf tourney final and then losing that could still get us in the conversation if the RPI does end up falling in the low 40s. Definitely some other things would have to go our way in terms of bubble teams losing and not too many other teams stealing bids by winning their tournaments, but I think it would at least make selection sunday interesting.

jmck · Unread post by **jmck** » 9 years ago

I don't know how anybody can say there is no chance at an at-large. Go 24-8 with a loss in the finals and we probably have say a 30% chance at getting a bid. I thought I saw somebody post actual statistics that we would have a 48% chance if we got to 24 wins. I think that is a little too high but atleast there is hope on selection sunday. Also NIT is a lock. We could lose 3 straight and probably still be a 7 seed

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 9 years ago

jmck wrote:I don't know how anybody can say there is no chance at an at-large. Go 24-8 with a loss in the finals and we probably have say a 30% chance at getting a bid. I thought I saw somebody post actual statistics that we would have a 48% chance if we got to 24 wins. I think that is a little too high but atleast there is hope on selection sunday. Also NIT is a lock. We could lose 3 straight and probably still be a 7 seed

If you believe this site, it says we have a 74% chance of getting an at-large if we win get to 24 wins (win out until the A-10 final). Obviously that number changes constantly, especially with all the variables at play.
They also give us an 8 percent chance of landing an at-large overall, which sounds about right.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basket ... acketology

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

jmck, it doesn't work that way with the NIT. They invite conference winners that lose their postseason tournament, that wouldn't get invited to the Dance any other way.

Last year there were 10 such teams, so there were only 22 so-called "at large" teams invited.

So if you fall below a 5 seed, you are in danger of being left out, if that repeats itself this year.

If URI loses out, I don't think they make it.

If URI beats St. Joes Saturday, then it's a lock. However, it would be nice to be a 4 seed or better, so we get at least 1 home game.

To be a 2 seed [2 home games] or better, we need to make the semis in NY, along with a win Sat. If we win tomorrow and Sat., then we should be at least a 2 no matter what happens in NY.

How about a Buffalo/URI matchup in MSG? Hurleys everywhere.

Again, all this is for those who care if we're in the NIT. I think for this program, it would be a chance to play more meaningful games, and who knows, maybe even win the damn thing. A nice reward for a good season, if you will.

Also a stepping stone to next season's NCAA tourney team.

Running Ram · Unread post by **Running Ram** » 9 years ago

Smarty, I agree that looks about right. And it's still one game at a time, win tomorrow night and the bubble talk gets ratcheted up again.

PlayMikeMotenMore · Unread post by **PlayMikeMotenMore** » 9 years ago

BillyBoy,

I agree with you. I hate conference tournaments and hate the fact that a 3-day hot streak rewards a team more (externally) than the regular season. The Ivy League has it right.

However, the way conferences have expanded and schedules have been altered, where a team finishes should mean nothing to the committee. I think we can all agree that URI had scheduling breaks this year by not having to go to VCU and not going to Davidson. The committee looks at who you beat and where you beat them.

You can certainly pile up a good record by beating all the teams below you and losing once each to the teams above you. Same goes in the Big Ten...where you play 6 teams once (3 at home and other 3 on road) and play the other teams home-and-home. You can imagine how a 9-9 record for one team can be quite a bit different than another team's 9-9 record. That's why the committee doesn't look at the number of conference wins.

URI96 · Unread post by **URI96** » 9 years ago

Blue Man wrote:The only way the A10 gets four teams is if Davidson wins out, and someone other than Davidson, Dayton, or VCU (read: URI) wins Brooklyn.

I really don't understand why the at-large talk is around for us. Even if we beat Dayton tomorrow. It is irrelevant.

The Dayton win would be huge for our program, and huge for our seeding in Brooklyn.

Brooklyn or bust. Stop with the fairytale and let's just focus on getting better to win March 13-15.

I think we have a shot if we beat Dayton and SJU plus make the finals of the A10'; especially if VCU knocks off Davidson and we win the regular season title. This would also indicate that we end up beating one of the other top four in the semis. I'm not saying it is a lock by any stretch but we would be in the discussion.

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 9 years ago

I've always thought that the regular season champ should get the automatic bid. I don't think that will ever happen. They love these conference tournaments. Don't know how that would work out. Just a fantasy, anyway.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 9 years ago

96, if we're going to talk about MAYBE making it, if we make the finals, we might as well WIN the final, to remove all doubt.

Why not?

I'd hate to be somewhere with a bunch of URI fans on March 15th, be right on the bubble, and not have our name be called.

Would be a crusher, like our loss to Davidson.

I don't want any more crushers.

If we don't win our next 4, well there won't be any more chances to be crushed, anyway.

85, how would you determine which leagues would get the autobid?

ramfan85 · Unread post by **ramfan85** » 9 years ago

Scientifically.....flip a coin. lol.

Like it is now using power ratings. I really don't think it's worth thinking much about. It's never going to happen anyway.

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 9 years ago

Rhody gets 3 points in the AP poll again, and again it's because John Feinstein ranked them 23. I don't necessarily hate it, but this guy is a riot. Last week he had URI at 23 and PC at 24. This week he has URI still at 23, and PC unranked. That's lvl 99 trolling right there.

http://collegepolltracker.com/basketbal ... 14/week-17

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 9 years ago

Maybe it's all the food he eats, throwing his
blood-sugar levels?
The man is a bottomless pit!

rhodyrudder · Unread post by **rhodyrudder** » 9 years ago

7 points in coaches' poll.

ace · Unread post by **ace** » 9 years ago

The only player on this roster who has any kind of post-season experience is Jarelle Reischel, who played 3 games in the CIT for Rice.

There's a lot of focus on the freshmen and sophomores, but this is something new for almost everyone. Enjoy it.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 9 years ago

rodfromcranston wrote:Maybe it's all the food he eats, throwing his
blood-sugar levels?
The man is a bottomless pit!

Do you mean Jon Rothstein of CBS? This was Jon Feinstein who gave us a #23 spot in his top 25.

rodfromcranston · Unread post by **rodfromcranston** » 9 years ago

Oops! Got my John "stein"s mixed up.
I was thinking Rothstein, since he never misses a chance to
say good things about URI.
Rothstein posts his eating habits on Twitter.
It's amazing he doesn't weigh 350lbs.!
Must have a fast metabolism.