Men's Basketball 2023-24 Prediction Contest Chatter

[SGreenwell]

Since people have been asking in other threads - Yes, we will have a prediction contest this year! We'll be keeping pretty much all of the categories and the format from the fantastic previous contests run by Obadiah. For a link to last year's contest, go here for the prediction thread itself, here for the preseason summary, and here for the final results.

URI opens with an exhibition game against Assumption on Wednesday, Nov. 1, followed by a regular season game vs. Central Connecticut State on Monday, Nov. 6. To allow for the widest batch of entries, the contest will open two weeks before the season - Monday, Oct. 23. The contest will be closed to further entries at game time (7 p.m.) on Monday, Nov. 6. Prizes will be remaining the same for this year's edition, although the gift cards will be cash instead, to allow for greater flexibility. Since most of the mod team is remote from Rhode Island at this point, the money can be sent via your online method of choice (Venmo, Paypal, Google Cash, etc.).

The rules for this year's contest are posted below.

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MAIN PRIZE

The winner of the prediction contest will receive a $200 cash prize.

BONUS PRIZES

Prizes will be awarded in all bonus categories and each winner will receive $50 based on the most accurate prediction of:

1) Team Scoring - regular season only (to avoid ties, this prediction must be made to two decimals).

2) Top Scorer - regular season only (to avoid ties, this prediction must be made to two decimals).

3) Average Home Attendance - regular season only, preseason excluded.

4) Mid Season Award - determined by the most accurate prediction of the OOC record, based on any regular season games. (Preseason doesn't count.) The winner of this award will be recognized using the same rules that apply to the winner of the overall contest and the result will be known on the conclusion of the Northeastern game on December 30.

In the first three bonus categories, if bettors submit an identical prediction to one already placed, they will be asked to modify prediction and resubmit.

PREDICTION COMPONENTS:

Each participant will make a prediction composed of five parts.

1. Regular Season Record (based on 31* games - 32, minus 1 preseason / exhibition games).
2. A-10 Conference Record (based on 18 games).
3. Team Scoring Average, PPG (to two decimals, based on regular season games).
4. Top Scorer & Scoring Average, PPG (to two decimals, based on regular season games).
5. Average Home Attendance, regular season only, excluding preseason / exhibition.

* = I believe the Hall of Fame Tip-Off is a two-round tournament, win or loss. But someone can correct me on that if need be, and if it is (potentially) three rounds, I'll adjust the rules slightly to account for that.

The contest is a game of accuracy in predicting the overall regular season record, and the other four components are essentially tiebreakers and will be used to determine the winner according to the above sequence. To move successfully through the sequence requires either predicting the actual result or coming closest to the actual result.

A suggested prediction submission format:

1. 17-14
2. 8-10
3. 66.78
4. House, 13.26
5. 4,845

DEADLINE

The deadline for submitting a prediction is Monday, November 6, 7 p.m..

OTHER GUIDELINES

• All predictions must be made in the proper thread to be considered valid. (i.e. A guess or modification made via post in another thread won't be considered.)
• Winners of each award must claim prize within 30 days after end of contest. If not done, prize will be awarded to the runner-up in the category.
• The contest is only open to bona fide URI fans and those meeting that qualification must have registered on this forum before September 1, 2023.
• Please monitor your private messages soon after you place your prediction, because if there is any problem or duplication with your bet, you will be notified via PM to take corrective action.

[ATPTourFan]

If you’re able, please consider contributing to KeaneyBlue via the yellow PayPal donation button at the bottom of the page (or any other way). The money raised will directly cover the contest prize money and the site’s hosting fees. Thank you in advance for always supporting this community which remains free of advertising.

[Mattrams94]

1.14-16
2.7-11
3.68.75
4.House 15.57
5.4,630

[SGreenwell]

1.14-16
2.7-11
3.68.75
4.House 15.57
5.4,630

There will be another thread created on Monday. This one is more for chatter about the predictions, and thoughts before guesses are due.

[Rhody15]

40-0

[Jersey77]

Well just for chatter sake, if we have a winning conference record, I will be very pleasantly surprised.
Just not seeing it this season, but who the hell knows given our situation, guessing anything can happen.
Will David Green even be eligible, not looking great at this point.
We have depth upfront, but how will Bilau fit in when he returns and how effective will he be.

Yes we all understand that this roster is bigger and more talented than last year, but again more important, how will they compare to our other A10 rivals.

[theblueram]

Is the exhibition against JWU to be included in totals?

[SGreenwell]

Is the exhibition against JWU to be included in totals?

The exhibitions will not count for any purpose (W-L, points, attendance, etc.).

[Billyboy78]

Is the exhibition against JWU to be included in totals?

The exhibitions will not count for any purpose (W-L, points, attendance, etc.).

I thought that JWU was on OOC game and Assumption was an exhibition game?

[RhowdyRam02]

Is the exhibition against JWU to be included in totals?

The exhibitions will not count for any purpose (W-L, points, attendance, etc.).

I thought that JWU was on OOC game and Assumption was an exhibition game?

Correct, there is no indication Johnson & Wales is an exhibition game

[SGreenwell]

Maybe I should word it as non-D1 opponents? Either way, I wasn't going to count it, since its likely to be a game that has an especially low attendance figure, and our walk-ons get into for 10+ minutes and someone like our back-up big will go for 20 points. (Well, hopefully.) FWIW, the official schedule doesn't mark Assumption as an exhibition (but their schedule does).

If y'all think it should be included though, we can. Ultimately, one quasi-exhibition game isn't going to move the needle much in either direction when it comes to the PPG, leading scorer and attendance, so I'm fine with including it or excluding it.

[theblueram]

If a game against a Div III school doesn't count for NET, then it sounds like an exhibition to me.

[reef]

If the game counts towards our overall record it needs to be counted regardless of NET implications

[Billyboy78]

It's a regular season OOC game. It should count. The Assumption game shouldn't count.

[Jersey77]

It's a regular season OOC game. It should count. The Assumption game shouldn't count.

Agree

[RF1]

Maybe I should word it as non-D1 opponents? Either way, I wasn't going to count it, since its likely to be a game that has an especially low attendance figure, and our walk-ons get into for 10+ minutes and someone like our back-up big will go for 20 points. (Well, hopefully.) FWIW, the official schedule doesn't mark Assumption as an exhibition (but their schedule does).

If y'all think it should be included though, we can. Ultimately, one quasi-exhibition game isn't going to move the needle much in either direction when it comes to the PPG, leading scorer and attendance, so I'm fine with including it or excluding it.

While the contest versus JWU may not count in the NET ranks, it is considered an OFFICIAL game by the NCAA and URI. All the stats and attendance numbers will be recorded and counted in school and player season and career records.

[theblueram]

So a DI school could actually play every OOC game against DIII opponents, and the results would count for DI records? Like even for player of the year?

[Billyboy78]

So a DI school could actually play every OOC game against DIII opponents, and the results would count for DI records? Like even for player of the year?

It's still an NCAA basketball game.

[reef]

We have played Non D1 teams before in the last 10 years those always counted

[Rhody74]

I have one prediction: last year most of us overestimated how well we’d do; this year most of us will underestimate our wins.

[NYGFan_Section208]

I have me prediction: last year most of us overestimated how well we’d do; this year most of us will underestimate our wins.

Disagree. You could be right, but I'm not sure this group is capable, as a group, of mass underestimation

[ramster]

I have me prediction: last year most of us overestimated how well we’d do; this year most of us will underestimate our wins.

Disagree. You could be right, but I'm not sure this group is capable, as a group, of mass underestimation

Preseason Polls have URI ranked 15th, 14th and I think the highest has been 11th. Most all, including local media, are saying this is Locker Room Bulletin Board Material to fire up the team, Most say this rankings are worse then they should be. So as NYGFan says, the wins will likely overestimate the final record, as is usual, I certainly do it myself

[theblueram]

I have me prediction: last year most of us overestimated how well we’d do; this year most of us will underestimate our wins.

50% predicted about a .500 record or less.

[reef]

I have us in the 8-10 range

[SGreenwell]

I've changed the number of games to include the JWU game.

[reef]

I've changed the number of games to include the JWU game.

Thanks , is it 31 reg season games ?

[SGreenwell]

I've changed the number of games to include the JWU game.

Thanks , is it 31 reg season games ?

By my count, yes.

[theblueram]

Thanks Steve. Just wanted to make sure we are all on the same page with number of games!!!!

[section(105)]

When does the betting window officially open?

[PeterRamTime]

Prediction pending the secret scrimmage results....

[bigappleram]

I will keep my prediction secret until I know a result!

[Rhody74]

Prediction pending the secret scrimmage results....

I’m wishing I knew David Green’s status.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Prediction pending the secret scrimmage results....

I’m wishing I knew David Green’s status.

Is this the chatter thread?

[theblueram]

I'll wait till next Wednesday after the exhibition to post my prediction. If I posted it now, it would be very negative. I'm hoping I see some really good basketball on Wednesday.

[SGreenwell]

Split out posts from the prediction thread to the chatter thread.

[reef]

I want to wait as long as possible for Green waiver announcement that factors into my win total !

[PeterRamTime]

I want to wait as long as possible for Green waiver announcement that factors into my win total !

Yeah don't see how anyone can make a prediction now without knowing if he is eligible and prior to the exhibition.

[NYGFan_Section208]

1. 15-16
2. 7-11
3. 69.33
4. House 14.50
5. 5150

The 1st sub .500 submission?

[Jersey77]

1. 15-16
2. 7-11
3. 69.33
4. House 14.50
5. 5150

The 1st sub .500 submission?

Won't be the last.

[Jdrums#3]

1. 15-16
2. 7-11
3. 69.33
4. House 14.50
5. 5150

The 1st sub .500 submission?

Won't be the last.

Jersey, why do you have to bring those negative vibes and ruin my buzz!

Just messing with you. Carry on.

[Jersey77]

The 1st sub .500 submission?

Won't be the last.

Jersey, why do you have to bring those negative vibes and ruin my buzz!

Just messing with you. Carry on.

Yeah, oh well.
Remember Spooky won the last 2 contests with the worst record predictions.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Won't be the last.

Jersey, why do you have to bring those negative vibes and ruin my buzz!

Just messing with you. Carry on.

Yeah, oh well.
Remember Spooky won the last 2 contests with the worst record predictions.

So, those seasons both qualify as "bad beyond (predictable) belief" then, right?

[rjv]

come on stop waiting to see if new info comes out or Green gets cleared.
Make a decision and live with it.......

[section(105)]

come on stop waiting to see if new info comes out or Green gets cleared.
Make a decision and live with it.......

Agree, is Green that much of a difference? Doubt it. Although I like his game, but……..

[ram1980]

come on stop waiting to see if new info comes out or Green gets cleared.
Make a decision and live with it.......

Agree, is Green that much of a difference? Doubt it. Although I like his game, but……..

He could make a big difference. He looked like he could be one of the top 3 or 4 players on the roster. Also, depth takes a big hit if he's not eligible. This team doesn't have enough talent to absorb a loss of a top player. Just my opinion.

[reef]

come on stop waiting to see if new info comes out or Green gets cleared.
Make a decision and live with it.......

Agree, is Green that much of a difference? Doubt it. Although I like his game, but……..

He could make a big difference. He looked like he could be one of the top 3 or 4 players on the roster. Also, depth takes a big hit if he's not eligible. This team doesn't have enough talent to absorb a loss of a top player. Just my opinion.

Agree , I’m waiting as long as possible if he’s eligible I think we are better by 1 or 2 games

[theblueram]

Since no one has actually seen this team play, I find it hard to predict the contest at this point. The exhibition against Assumption next Wednesday is what you should wait for. I will post my thoughts after that game and I hope others who have a better basketball mind than myself will as well.

[SGreenwell]

Since no one has actually seen this team play, I find it hard to predict the contest at this point. The exhibition against Assumption next Wednesday is what you should wait for. I will post my thoughts after that game and I hope others who have a better basketball mind than myself will as well.

I'm kind of with you, in that I have no feel for how minute distribution and the depth chart is going to work with this team. Like, I kind of think House has a lockdown on his starting spot, and Kortright too, probably. Green, if eligible, I'd assume as a starter at the 5. Otherwise, I've got no clue. The deeper down the depth chart players from the 2022-23 squad are, the more optimistic I'd be about our chances this year.

[Jersey77]

Since no one has actually seen this team play, I find it hard to predict the contest at this point. The exhibition against Assumption next Wednesday is what you should wait for. I will post my thoughts after that game and I hope others who have a better basketball mind than myself will as well.

I'm kind of with you, in that I have no feel for how minute distribution and the depth chart is going to work with this team. Like, I kind of think House has a lockdown on his starting spot, and Kortright too, probably. Green, if eligible, I'd assume as a starter at the 5. Otherwise, I've got no clue. The deeper down the depth chart players from the 2022-23 squad are, the more optimistic I'd be about our chances this year.

SG if Green is eligible, I don't see him as a 5, probably much better suited at the 4.
Green starting at the 5 would make me nervous about how good our bigs are.

[reef]

Since no one has actually seen this team play, I find it hard to predict the contest at this point. The exhibition against Assumption next Wednesday is what you should wait for. I will post my thoughts after that game and I hope others who have a better basketball mind than myself will as well.

I'm kind of with you, in that I have no feel for how minute distribution and the depth chart is going to work with this team. Like, I kind of think House has a lockdown on his starting spot, and Kortright too, probably. Green, if eligible, I'd assume as a starter at the 5. Otherwise, I've got no clue. The deeper down the depth chart players from the 2022-23 squad are, the more optimistic I'd be about our chances this year.

That’s a really good point, I guess people can change their predictions who already made them after watching the Assumption game