Game 7 Football vs Richmond 1pm Sat Oct 14 FloSports Homecoming Weekend

[ramster]

Homecoming Weekend with big CAA Game vs Richmond

[ramster]

Standings after today

Green shaded are 3 URI home games remaining
Red shaded are 2 URI away games remaining

[jcru]

This next game will determine a lot. They have to win this game. Richmond will be tough. They need to make the difference the friendly confines of Meade Stadium and a very good crowd, willing them on.

Watched the Richmond Maine game today. Richmond has a freshman QB, Camden Coleman, but very good. He started/played the last two games. He did throw 6 TDs and over 300 yards but 2 INTs in this game.

They have a star receiver who caught 3 of those TDs, Nick DeGennaro

They have a transfer DB from Colgate who seems to be in on almost every single tackle, Mikey Jarmolowich. And yes, the announcers do call him "Mikey" like the kid from the Life cereal commercial.

They have good team speed and they do a lot of things similar to URI.

They even have a TE who was fairly active in this last game vs Maine, Connor Deveney

After this game, the post season picture will be a lot clearer, one way or the other.

[ramster]

This next game will determine a lot. They have to win this game. Richmond will be tough. They need to make the difference the friendly confines of Meade Stadium and a very good crowd, willing them on.

Watched the Richmond Maine game today. Richmond has a freshman QB, Camden Coleman, but very good. He started/played the last two games. He did throw 6 TDs and over 300 yards but 2 INTs in this game.

They have a star receiver who caught 3 of those TDs, Nick DeGennaro

They have a transfer DB from Colgate who seems to be in on almost every single tackle, Mikey Jarmolowich. And yes, the announcers do call him "Mikey" like the kid from the Life cereal commercial.

They have good team speed and they do a lot of things similar to URI.

They even have a TE who was fairly active in this last game vs Maine, Connor Deveney

After this game, the post season picture will be a lot clearer, one way or the other.

I don't think we can afford to lose any of the 3 remaining home games. And then need to split the Albany and Towson road games.

Problem with losing to Richmond or Albany is that they then own the tie breaker head to head competition.

Just as Villanova already owns the tiebreaker vs URI

I think you are right that the Brown/Bryant wins font mean much. It's beating out the CAA competition that's the key.

[ramster]

CAA does a great job with game summaries and highlights

4 minute video of the Maine @ Richmond game highlights and there a bunch of them

https://caasports.com/news/2023/10/7/ca ... oct-7.aspx

[jcru]

This is concerning.

uri.brown.stats01.jpg (24.24 KiB) Viewed 3596 times

That ToP and 3rd down Conversion stat should not be happening with a team with a 7th year QB. It's putting all sorts of undue pressure on the Defense to "save the day" over and over again for one thing. There is no way a team like Brown should have imposed their will on URI like that.

They need to fix that, if they want to reach their goals this year.

The Defense cannot be effective like they should be, if they have to keep "bailing" the Offense out and live on the field for 20 mins a half, like they did in the first half of this game. Thank goodness for that special teams TD.

[jcru]

CAA does a great job with game summaries and highlights

4 minute video of the Maine @ Richmond game highlights and there a bunch of them

https://caasports.com/news/2023/10/7/ca ... oct-7.aspx

They interviewed the Richmond coach on the sidelines at halftime, he seemed visibly annoyed by Maine's use of what he called a "gadget" play, that wide receiver pass, and said they answered with a gadget play of their own. Former Delaware coach, Tubby Raymond, built the entire Delaware program on plays like that, was famous for them. Direct snaps to the RB and flee flickers, you name it. UNH used to follow suit back in the day as well.

Anyway, it's not enough to pressure Coleman, you have to Defend his receivers in open space. This will be a true test for our Defensive backs, and likewise for theirs.

[jcru]

I don't think we can afford to lose any of the 3 remaining home games. And then need to split the Albany and Towson road games.

Problem with losing to Richmond or Albany is that they then own the tie breaker head to head competition.

Just as Villanova already owns the tiebreaker vs URI

I think you are right that the Brown/Bryant wins font mean much. It's beating out the CAA competition that's the key.

I mean, that would seem to be the correct formula. You need to win 6. Winning the home games and then splitting the away games is the straight forward way to do it.

Last year was different. They lost badly at home to Delaware, but they came very close to sweeping the away games. They beat Stony Brook and Monmouth (in 7 OTs) on the road, and nearly beat W&M and UNH away as well, both games came down to the final minute. If they had won 3 on the road it would have made up for losing to Delaware at home.

They have to beat Richmond and UNH in Meade, no excuses, Albany is a toss up, and it may come down to the final game at Towson. But none of that happens if they fail next weekend.

[RhowdyRam02]

This next game will determine a lot. They have to win this game. Richmond will be tough. They need to make the difference the friendly confines of Meade Stadium and a very good crowd, willing them on.

Watched the Richmond Maine game today. Richmond has a freshman QB, Camden Coleman, but very good. He started/played the last two games. He did throw 6 TDs and over 300 yards but 2 INTs in this game.

They have a star receiver who caught 3 of those TDs, Nick DeGennaro

They have a transfer DB from Colgate who seems to be in on almost every single tackle, Mikey Jarmolowich. And yes, the announcers do call him "Mikey" like the kid from the Life cereal commercial.

They have good team speed and they do a lot of things similar to URI.

They even have a TE who was fairly active in this last game vs Maine, Connor Deveney

After this game, the post season picture will be a lot clearer, one way or the other.

I don't think we can afford to lose any of the 3 remaining home games. And then need to split the Albany and Towson road games.

Problem with losing to Richmond or Albany is that they then own the tie breaker head to head competition.

Just as Villanova already owns the tiebreaker vs URI

I think you are right that the Brown/Bryant wins font mean much. It's beating out the CAA competition that's the key.

People are overthinking things. 8-3 or better we're in, 7-4 or less we're out. How you get to those numbers doesn't really matter for us. Since the playoffs got expanded to the current format 7-4 CAA teams get in about 50% of the time, but we don't have the recognition to get the benefit of the doubt. No 8 win CAA team has missed the playoffs in the current format

[RhowdyRam02]

This is concerning.


uri.brown.stats01.jpg


That ToP and 3rd down Conversion stat should not be happening with a team with a 7th year QB. It's putting all sorts of undue pressure on the Defense to "save the day" over and over again for one thing. There is no way a team like Brown should have imposed their will on URI like that.

They need to fix that, if they want to reach their goals this year.

The Defense cannot be effective like they should be, if they have to keep "bailing" the Offense out and live on the field for 20 mins a half, like they did in the first half of this game. Thank goodness for that special teams TD.

You always blame the offense and absolve the defense. The biggest reasons for the time of possession discrepancy were the dumb penalties the defense were committing and not stopping Brown on third down.if the defense does their job the time of possession looks a lot different

[jcru]

I know this Defense is not great. So the blame is already in the mixture at all times, RR02.

They need a bit of help from the Offense, but what they have been getting is the opposite of help for the vast majority of the season.

[jcru]

And for a defense that spends 2/3rds of the game on the field, they get a lot of good key 3rd down stops. So, they have more endurance than I actually give them credit for.

Answer me this though: what is the point of stopping the other team's offense and giving our offense the ball back, if they are just going to run three plays and a cloud of dust and leave the field every time like it's no big deal? The Offense is supposed to be the unit with the 7th year QB with a great line and loaded with playmakers.

[jcru]

People are overthinking things. 8-3 or better we're in, 7-4 or less we're out. How you get to those numbers doesn't really matter for us. Since the playoffs got expanded to the current format 7-4 CAA teams get in about 50% of the time, but we don't have the recognition to get the benefit of the doubt. No 8 win CAA team has missed the playoffs in the current format

You say 50% of the time. And I do not doubt that stat. But 7-4 does not account for the Conference record, I would like to know what percentage of 7-4 is 6 CAA wins and what percentage of 7-4 is 5 CAA wins, that made the playoffs, out of that 50% for CAA teams. Can you get a hold of that stat?

[jcru]

No, I don't think anyone is arguing that point.

Mathematically, 8 wins would mean at least 6 CAA wins, most of the time.

6 wins would mean 5 CAA wins or fewer, most of the time.

I think 8 vs 6 is pretty straightforward. 7 wins is where it comes down to, who are the wins against and who are the losses against?

hypothetically (prior to today)...

You win 8 games and 7 of them are CAA games, that would mean that you won every CAA game except Villanova on the road, and you lost to both Georgia St and Brown. Georgia State and Brown are basically regulated to glorified exhibition games or vanity games at that point, because that URI team... is going to the playoffs. If for no other reason, that that team is guaranteed top-3 in the Conference at that point.

[RhowdyRam02]

People are overthinking things. 8-3 or better we're in, 7-4 or less we're out. How you get to those numbers doesn't really matter for us. Since the playoffs got expanded to the current format 7-4 CAA teams get in about 50% of the time, but we don't have the recognition to get the benefit of the doubt. No 8 win CAA team has missed the playoffs in the current format

You say 50% of the time. And I do not doubt that stat. But 7-4 does not account for the Conference record, I would like to know what percentage of 7-4 is 6 CAA wins and what percentage of 7-4 is 5 CAA wins, that made the playoffs, out of that 50% for CAA teams. Can you get a hold of that stat?

Probably. I definitely can if I have time, but I'm not sure I'll have the time. I'll see what I can do

[jcru]

ok, like I said, it's just a curiosity. I do think that there is some bias with the committee, because there is bias with every committee, no different than the coaches poll. But the idea is to remove the ability of the bias to factor into it. Now, with just 5 CAA games left, 9-2 and 8-3 are playoff teams. 7-4 is really dicey with 3 CAA losses and open to that bias, not to mention the final standings in the conference, and anything less than that is moot.

[RhowdyRam02]

And for a defense that spends 2/3rds of the game on the field, they get a lot of good key 3rd down stops. So, they have more endurance than I actually give them credit for.

Answer me this though: what is the point of stopping the other team's offense and giving our offense the ball back, if they are just going to run three plays and a cloud of dust and leave the field every time like it's no big deal? The Offense is supposed to be the unit with the 7th year QB with a great line and loaded with playmakers.

I've got questions about the offensive playcalling myself. That said, later in the game I assumed some of those objectionable calls you're alluding to were we were more worried about keeping the clock rolling and ball security because we were deep in our own zone and playing it safe was more important than trying to ice the game at any cost. Even if I don't agree I understand

[jcru]

That's a fair point. Fleming is a guy that started off with a lot of losing seasons and now has reversed that trend and has strung together two 7-4 seasons prior to this season. I'm not sure he's developed a killer instinct in all of that, a lot of it seems to come down to sitting on the ball, killing the clock, and prevent. And hoping for a little luck in there.

[ramster]

The was the preseason CAA Coaches Prediction:

CAA PRESEASON POLL

(head coaches voted)

1. William & Mary (13 first-place votes) 195
2. New Hampshire (1) 179
3. Richmond 159
4. Delaware (1) 149
5. Elon 146
6. Rhode Island 135
7. Villanova 129
8. Monmouth 94
9. Towson 85
10. N.C. A&T 70
11. Albany 64
12. Campbell 62
13. Maine 40
14. Stony Brook 38
15. Hampton 30

[jcru]

And at the time, I said, that 6th place finish means they are expecting URI to "just miss" the playoffs again this year, like the last two years, with a 7-4 finish.

URI controls their own destiny right now, they could put themselves above UNH and Richmond by virtue of upcoming head to head competition. Added bonus: both games at home.

[FmrRamFB1]

This is concerning.


uri.brown.stats01.jpg


That ToP and 3rd down Conversion stat should not be happening with a team with a 7th year QB. It's putting all sorts of undue pressure on the Defense to "save the day" over and over again for one thing. There is no way a team like Brown should have imposed their will on URI like that.

They need to fix that, if they want to reach their goals this year.

The Defense cannot be effective like they should be, if they have to keep "bailing" the Offense out and live on the field for 20 mins a half, like they did in the first half of this game. Thank goodness for that special teams TD.

Agreed, the offense is putting a strain on our defense, particularly our depleted defensive line, however, we’re leading the conference in 3rd down conversion percentage.

[ramster]

Recap of the CAA Games this past Saturday

https://caasports.com/news/2023/10/7/ca ... oct-7.aspx

[RhowdyRam02]

People are overthinking things. 8-3 or better we're in, 7-4 or less we're out. How you get to those numbers doesn't really matter for us. Since the playoffs got expanded to the current format 7-4 CAA teams get in about 50% of the time, but we don't have the recognition to get the benefit of the doubt. No 8 win CAA team has missed the playoffs in the current format

You say 50% of the time. And I do not doubt that stat. But 7-4 does not account for the Conference record, I would like to know what percentage of 7-4 is 6 CAA wins and what percentage of 7-4 is 5 CAA wins, that made the playoffs, out of that 50% for CAA teams. Can you get a hold of that stat?

2013 New Hampshire 7-4 (6-2) made the playoffs
2015 New Hampshire 7-4 (5-3) made the playoffs
2016 New Hampshire 7-4 (6-2) made the playoffs
2017 New Hampshire 7-4 (5-3) made the playoffs
2018 Stony Brook 7-4 (5-3) made the playoffs
2018 Towson 7-4 (5-3) made the playoffs
2018 Delaware 7-4 (5-3) made the playoffs
2022 Elon 7-4 (6-2) made the playoffs
2022 Delaware 7-4 (4-4) made the playoffs

2015 Towson 7-4 (5-3) didn't make the playoffs
2016 Albany 7-4 (4-4) missed the playoffs
2017 Delaware 7-4 (5-3) missed the playoffs
2021 Rhode Island 7-4 (4-4) missed the playoffs
2022 Rhode Island 7-4 (5-3) missed the playoffs

So out of the nine 7-4 teams that made the playoffs three teams had 6 conference wins, five had 5, and one had 4

Out of the five 7-4 teams that missed the playoffs, three had 5 conference wins, and two had 4.

If you have five conference wins you made the playoffs 5 times and missed 3.

If you have four conference wins you made the playoffs 1 time and missed 2

[jcru]

Interesting stuff.

I'm going to count 4-4 as 0 though, because Delaware making the playoffs with 4-4 last year is just a screw job for someone out there. Total shameless bias.

I'll say, with 6-2 we are in, with 5-3 we have an outside chance depending on who it was that beat us and which games we won. It definitely depends on the standings too.

Right now, in the coaches poll, it's:

Delaware
William and Mary
Rhode Island
New Hampshire

And in the stats poll, it's:

Delaware
William and Mary
Albany

If the season ended today, I think we would be in, playing Holy Cross in Worchester. Still way too early, of course. Top six in the conference is Delaware, William and Mary, Albany, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Villanova. With 7th Elon on top of the conference, but not rated. There is going to be a lot of shuffling between 3-7 before this is done, with 3 in, 2 out.

The only way to be a solid #3 in the Conference, is to win out.

[RhowdyRam02]

Massey Ratings gives us a 63% chance of winning and predicts a 29-24 score

[jcru]

Totally plausible, but they still have to make it happen on the field.

Also, if this game were in Richmond, I think you would see a complete flip flop of that prediction. They are expecting you to win your home games against evenly matched competition

[RhowdyRam02]

No changes with our two deep this week

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... es_G07.pdf

[NYGFan_Section208]

No changes with our two deep this week

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... es_G07.pdf

Good, I was beginning to wonder

[ramster]

Article from Richmond Times-Dispatch on todays big game
Includes this comment about 8 wins......

Eight unlocks the gate.

Change the composition over the years of CAA Football, which increased to 15 members with the 16th (Bryant) arriving next season. Doesn’t matter. Eight wins is the number league teams have driven toward for decades, because if a CAA Football member reaches eight victories, inclusion in the FCS playoffs is likely.

Carry that calculus to the University of Richmond’s situation. The Spiders have won three times with five games remaining, starting with Saturday’s homecoming date at Rhode Island.

https://richmond.com/sports/college/sch ... 5938d.html

[RhodyRams12]

[ramster]

[rhodyrudder]

I missed it…
Was it best unis?

Were they actually previewing the game?

[RamStock]

I missed it…
Was it best unis?

Were they actually previewing the game?

Cmon. Do you think they would preview a URI and Richmond game on Espn? Not even the best teams in our level get mentioned unless there was something off the wall that happened

[damram]

Poor first half by the offense.

[RF1]

Now 24-10 Spiders with less than 5 minutes remaining. A loss today will pretty much end postseason hopes as it is doubtful they would win out. Too bad the team laid an egg in front of a big crowd on Homecoming.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Now 24-10 Spiders with less than 5 minutes remaining. A loss today will pretty much end postseason hopes as it is doubtful they would win out. Too bad the team laid an egg in front of a big crowd on Homecoming.

but at least they're not wearing eggshell unis...

https://thespun.com/college-football/or ... ed-reviews

[theblueram]

Kasim Hill experiment is alas over. At least he should have a PHD after 7 years of college.

[RF1]

Final - Richmond wins 24-17

[Rhodymob05]

Tailgating was awesome, but Jim Fleming is Jim Baron.

[Rhody15]

Kasim Hill experiment is alas over. At least he should have a PHD after 7 years of college.

Experiment? What are you talking about?

Been the best QB here in what, 20+ years?

When was the last time we had 3 straight seasons (assuming we get there this year) over .500?

[jcru]

And... Flosports subscription cancelled.

[theblueram]

Kasim Hill experiment is alas over. At least he should have a PHD after 7 years of college.

Experiment? What are you talking about?

Been the best QB here in what, 20+ years?

When was the last time we had 3 straight seasons (assuming we get there this year) over .500?

If .500 is your goal, good for you.

[Jdrums#3]

Just can’t get over the hump. Frustrating.

[HobbyBurley]

Same shit different day. Red zone offense was inexcusably bad. Happy they battled back a bit but another big setback overall.

[adam914]

#ClassicRhody

[Billyboy78]

This team makes too many mistakes at critical times that prevents them from winning close games. So frustrating to watch.

[bigappleram]

We are not good as a one dimensional team


Kasim is good but not as a typical drop back passer. He needs to play off a solid run game, use RPO and improvise. Criminal misuse of McKenzie all year. Silas and Sloat looked good running wide but we seldom went to it. When the whole stadium knows he’s passing he’s not effective. Our offensive play calling lacks any imagination and creativity. Defense played well enough to win today. Lost game in first half by squandering multiple chances on their end of the field.

[theblueram]

Kasim up the middle was not a good call. It either ended in loss of yards or a fumble. Either way, they shot themselves in the foot on this one. Yet another year with no playoffs.

[FmrRamFB1]

We are not good as a one dimensional team


Kasim is good but not as a typical drop back passer. He needs to play off a solid run game, use RPO and improvise. Criminal misuse of McKenzie all year. Silas and Sloat looked good running wide but we seldom went to it. When the whole stadium knows he’s passing he’s not effective. Our offensive play calling lacks any imagination and creativity. Defense played well enough to win today. Lost game in first half by squandering multiple chances on their end of the field.

Agreed, the OC is to blame. Of the 31 rushing attempts today, Hill “ran” the ball 19 times! McKenzie ran for 111 last week and today he gets 3 carries. This was a total offensive failure.

[BigBlueDawg]

Take out the sacks and scrambles and that 19 times turns into 6-7 actual runs. But we DEFINITELY need to run the ball better that's for sure.