WBB NET 2021-22 and NCAA 68 Team Tournament Bracketology

[ramster]

Latest College Sports Madness bracket, updated today. Both URI and Dayton are in, both as 11 seeds.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/wo ... acketology

URI is among the 1st 4 out in this ESPN Bracketology from Feb 4


I made a separate thread to keep analysis of the Tournament separate from the ongoing Game to Game thread

[ramster]

SmartyBarrett,

I took all the teams in the Sports Madness Bracket you posted and looked up the current NET for each team. There are 68 Teams this year, just like for MBB. This is an increase from 64 last season. These additional 4 spots could benefit URI.

I Bold,Blue A10 Teams URI and Dayton. Shows how close things are for the A10 to get an At-Large Bid. Game with Fordham on Sunday is very important for URI.

There are 32 AQ's (Automatic Qualifiers) - picked to win their Conferences - this leaves 36 for At-Large Invitations
1-South Carolina
2-NC State
3-Stanford
6-UCONN
9-Iowa State
11-BYU
12-Michigan
31-FGCU
32-Princeton
35-South Dakota State

38-UCF
41-Missouri State
48-URI
55-SF Austin
57-Middle Tennessee
58-Belmont
70-Toledo
74-IUPUI
76-Jackson State
79-UNLV

87-Long Beach State
88-Stony Brook
92-Drexel
111-Troy
125-Fairfield
169-Holy Cross
174-Southeast Louisiana
189-Southern Utah
196-Norfolk State
212-Campbell

216-St Francis NY
222-Wofford

[ramster]

For the Remaining 36 At-Large Invitations the NETs are included in order:

4-Louisville
5-North Carolina
7-Arizona
8-Texas
10-Baylor
14-Notre Dame
15-Georgia Tech
16-Maryland
17-Indiana
18-Tennessee

19-Nebraska
20-Iowa
21-Virginia Tech
22-LSU
23-Utah
24-Arkansas
25-Georgia
26-Kansas State
27-Mississippi
28-Gonzaga

29-Oklahoma
30-Ohio State
33-Creighton
34-Colorado
36-Kansas
39-Duke
40-South Florida
44-Missouri
47-Dayton
49-Florida

50-Mississippi State - Last 4 invited
54-Oregon
56-Washington State - Last 4 invited
59-Boston College
60-Marquette - Last 4 invited
75-Tulane - Last 4 invited


42-DePaul - First 4 out
45-Arizona State - First 4 out
67-Liberty - First 4 out
85-Tulsa - First 4 out

[SmartyBarrett]

Good stuff ramster. A new ESPN Bracketology dropped yesterday as well.



So far, the only WBB Bracketologies I can find are ESPN and College Sports Madness... not sure if anyone knows of others.

[Blue Man]

So happy that we still get to have these conversations around basketball. Thanks Ramster and Smarty!

More importantly thanks Tammi!

[ramster]

Why this Sunday’s 1PM game at the Ryan Center vs Fordham is so big:

ESPN Latest Bracketology has Dayton with the AQ.
URI among 1st 4 out
Fordham among next 4 out

UMASS is also listed in next 4 out. We beat UMASS twice.

[RhowdyRam02]

Here's the link to that bracketology: https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... rojections

Last 4 byes are Creighton, Kansas, Missouri State, Gonzaga
Last 4 in are Mississippi State, Washington State, Oregon State, Marquette

After last night's games, here are the NET rankings

46 Dayton
48 Rhode Island
51 Massachusetts
60 Fordham

33 Creighton
34 Kansas
41 Missouri State
28 Gonzaga

50 Mississippi State
68 Washington State
56 Oregon State
58 Marquette

59 Boston College
44 Texas A&M
43 Arizona State

55 UCLA
47 Northern Iowa

Honestly I'm really confused by this bracketology. The first four out group is better than the last four in. Wonder if there's something I'm missing or if this person is about as "accurate" as Lunardi is for ESPN on the men's side

[RIFan]

Seems like the A10 doesnt get much respect in womens hoops.

[SmartyBarrett]

Understanding that NET is not the "be-all, end-all" of NCAA Tournament selection, I took a look at the NET of ESPN's Last Four Byes/Last Four In/First Four Out/Next Four Out in their latest bracketology (2/8). Rhody's in good shape in that respect:

28 - Gonzaga (L4B)
33 - Creighton (L4B)
34 - Kansas (L4B)
41 - Missouri State (L4B)

43 - Arizona State (FFO)
44 - Texas A&M (FFO)
47 - Northern Iowa (NFO)
48 - Rhode Island (FFO)

50 - Mississippi State (L4I)
51 - UMass (NFO)
55 - UCLA (NFO)
56 - Oregon State (L4I)

58 - Marquette (L4I)
59 - Boston College (FFO)
60 - Fordham (NFO)
68 - Washington State (L4I)

[ETA: Looks like RR02 already did this. I sorted it by how it would look relative to NET. Also appears Washington State took a bad loss last night... dropped from 57 to 68)

[ramster]

Smarty,
I think the game with Fordham Sunday afternoon at 1pm is big. We only play Fordham one time and it is on our home court. In some ways, this could possibly end up being a tiebreaker to get an At-Large bid for the A10. Of course lots depends on the upcoming two games H & A with Dayton and the A10 Tournament. Fordham is also a big momentum game going into the 2 games with Dayton.

I honestly can't remember a more important game for WBB at the Ryan Center than this Fordham game. Of course the upcoming Dayton game could surpass the Fordham game. Good times for Rhody WBB.

[SmartyBarrett]

I'd love for the game at Fordham to be rescheduled but as we get closer to March it seems less and less likely.

[ramster]

Agree. A10 WBB Tournament is March 2 to March 6 at the CHASE Fieldhouse in Wilmington, DE - only 3 weeks away.

[SmartyBarrett]

Updated based on today's NET and the latest Bracketology:



28 - Gonzaga (L4B)
33 - Creighton (L4B)
34 - Kansas (L4B)
40 - Texas A&M (FFO)

42 - Missouri State (L4B)
43 - Arizona State (LFI)
48 - Rhode Island (FFO)
50 - Florida State (NFO)

52 - UCLA (NFO)
53 - Mississippi State (L4I)
56 - Boston College (LFI)
57 - Oregon State (FFO)

59 - Marquette (L4I)
60 - Fordham (NFO)
69 - Washington State (FFO)
74 - Villanova (NFO)

[RhowdyRam02]

What did Arizona State do to jump from one spot behind URI, up four spots to last team in? They didn't play a game between ESPN brackets, and we had a 10 point win on the road that improved our NET?

This is a good frame of reference to see generally where we stand, but my guess is whoever does this is as "accurate" as Lunardi is on the men's side for ESPN now

[SmartyBarrett]

No new ESPN bracketology yet... latest came out on Feb. 11th. However, here's an update based on this morning's NET:

26 - Gonzaga (L4B)
31 - Creighton (L4B)
34 - Kansas (L4B)
39 - Arizona State (LFI)

41 - Missouri State (L4B)
42 - Texas A&M (FFO)
44 - Rhode Island (FFO)
49 - Oregon State (FFO)

51 - Mississippi State (L4I)
53 - UCLA (NFO)
54 - Florida State (NFO)
57 - Boston College (LFI)

61 - Marquette (L4I)
62 - Fordham (NFO)
67 - Washington State (FFO)
78 - Villanova (NFO)

[ramster]

Smarty,
The win over Fordham was big. Imagine if we lost that, being our only game with Fordham and being at home.

Puts us in a good position for Dayton - some pressure off and more momentum built.

[SmartyBarrett]

I'm not sure there's a better team in the A-10 than Rhody. Obviously anything can happen in the conference tournament but if they beat Dayton and finish at the top of the conference, it's going to be HARD to exclude URI if it ends up coming down to an at-large.

[ramster]

Agree

[reef]

I haven’t followed women’s hoops too closely but how often is the A-10 a 1 bid league say in the last few years

[RhowdyRam02]

Looks like the last time we weren't a one bid league was in 2018 when we got one at large team in

[PeterRamTime]

Obviously the A-10 is not respected like at all.

We only got 3 votes in the top 25! 34th!

With the longest win streak in the nation 20-3 (10-0)

Would probably have to win out to get ranked.

[ramster]

MIKE LOPRESTI | NCAA.COM | FEBRUARY 10, 2022
11 women's basketball teams that could finally end NCAA tournament droughts this March


Rhode Island, a program with one NCAA tournament appearance and that was 26 years ago . . .

The 19-3 Rams are 9-0 in the Atlantic 10 and have won 12 games in a row. They recently crunched La Salle with a 40-2 advantage in points in the paint. Coach Tammi Reiss has an interesting resume that includes everything from the WNBA to owner of a personal training business to credits as a film and television actress. Now she’d like to add NCAA tournament coach to that.

“It’s just playing together and playing hard,” she told reporters after Rhode Island’s latest win. “Knowing we want to win and want to be champions. You combine the work ethic with the habits and that kind of mentality — this is what it leads to.”

More will be known about Rhode Island’s chances soon. Third-place Fordham, at 16-5, is next, then Dayton. The Flyers are 10-0 in the league and have won 13 consecutive games. The two teams with the second and third longest winning streaks in the nation will meet twice in the next two weeks. Keep padding its resume, and Rhode Island could be in line for an at-large spot.





https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-wo ... ghts-march

[ramster]

History of Teams in the WBB NCAA Tournament Since 1982 when the NCAA took over the Tournament

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Divi ... Tournament



Since 1982 URI has had 1 appearance in the Tournament. 1996
URI was selected At-Large 10th Seed (21-7) (13-3). George Washington was the AQ.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhode_Isl ... basketball

[RhowdyRam02]

College Sports Madness put out their latest bracket yesterday. URI is the Automatic qualifier, Dayton is an at large, and UMass is fourth out. We're the 10th seed in the Greensboro regional

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/wo ... acketology

[SmartyBarrett]

12 seed here in ESPN's update this AM. Rhody is the auto-bid, Dayton is the first team out.

[SmartyBarrett]

Even though Rhody is in, here's a look at where they may stand bubble-wise if they don't get the AQ (ESPN's rankings re-sorted by NET):

26 - Gonzaga (L4I)
34 - Colorado (L4B)
38 - South Dakota State (NFO)
39 - Arizona State (LFB)

41 - Missouri State (L4B)
42 - Texas A&M (FFO)
45 - RHODE ISLAND
47 - UMass (NFO)
48 - DePaul (L4B)

49 - Oregon State (LFI)
50 - Dayton (FFO)
51 - Mississippi State (L4I)
56 - Boston College (LFI)

62 - Marquette (FFO)
65 - Northwestern (NFO)
67 - Washington State (FFO)
78 - Villanova (NFO)

This reeks of major conference bias. How is Gonzaga barely in? They seem safely in. How is South Dakota State that far out? How is Villanova even in the conversation?

[RhowdyRam02]

Even though Rhody is in, here's a look at where they may stand bubble-wise if they don't get the AQ (ESPN's rankings re-sorted by NET):

26 - Gonzaga (L4I)
34 - Colorado (L4B)
38 - South Dakota State (NFO)
39 - Arizona State (LFB)

41 - Missouri State (L4B)
42 - Texas A&M (FFO)
45 - RHODE ISLAND
47 - UMass (NFO)
48 - DePaul (L4B)

49 - Oregon State (LFI)
50 - Dayton (FFO)
51 - Mississippi State (L4I)
56 - Boston College (LFI)

62 - Marquette (FFO)
65 - Northwestern (NFO)
67 - Washington State (FFO)
78 - Villanova (NFO)

This reeks of major conference bias. How is Gonzaga barely in? They seem safely in. How is South Dakota State that far out? How is Villanova even in the conversation?

Completely agree that this guy seems to have severe major conference bias, which might not be a surprise from ESPN. Unfortunately he's one of only two brackets I can seem to find and there's nothing like bracketmatrix for the women's side that I know about so we can judge the accuracy

[SmartyBarrett]

College Sports Madness seems to be less biased but they also have Villanova in. I know they recently beat UConn so my guess is they have more than a few Q1 wins which is getting them consideration. There's no easy place to find Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 records other than manually tabulating them, which I don't feel like doing, haha. I did URI's:

Q1: 2-0
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 10-1
Q4: 6-0

Remaining:

Q1: at Dayton
Q2: vs Dayton, at Richmond
Q3: none
Q4: vs St. Bonaventure

[RhowdyRam02]

Villanova is:

Q1 2-4 (we're better here)
Q2 4-1 (Villanova is better here)
Q3 8-2 (we're better here)
Q4 3-0 (neither team has a quad 4 loss, so this category is irrelevant)

We beat them on NET 45-78
We're better in quads 1 and 3
They beat us in quad 2
We're 14-3 quads 1-3, with the better quad 1 record, they're 14-7.

We beat Princeton 61-53, they lost to Princeton 59-42 (huge edge us)
We won at St. Joe's 58-48, they won at St. Joe's 55-39 (slight edge them)
We won at Providence 66-53, they lost at Providence 66-47 and beat them at home 71-56 (edge us)
We won at La Salle 66-60, they won at La Salle 66-56 (slight edge them)

On common opponents we have a huge edge and an edge, they have two slight edges, so we beat them here as well

[SmartyBarrett]

New women's bracketology posted today, with Rhody as the second team out. With that, I took another crack at re-sorting the 16 bubble teams by NET. URI remains in good shape in that respect.

29 - Gonzaga (L4I)
31 - Colorado (L4B)
40 - Missouri State (L4B)
44 - Duke (L4B)

45 - Kentucky (NFO)
47 - DePaul (L4I)
49 - Rhode Island (FFO)
50 - Oregon State (FFO)

52 - Florida State (NFO)
54 - Mississippi State (L4B)
56 - Boston College (LFI)
60 - Miami (L4I)

65 - Marquette (NFO)
66 - Northwestern (FFO)
72 - Tulane (NFO)
74 - Villanova (FFO)

[SmartyBarrett]

New College Sports Madness bracket dropped today... URI in as the A-10 auto-bid... 11 seed. Dayton in as an at-large (also an 11 seed).

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/wo ... acketology

[SmartyBarrett]

Despite winning last night, Rhody's NET dropped one spot from 49 to 50. One thing that hasn't helped is that Princeton has dropped six spots in NET and has gone from a Q1 win for Rhody to a Q2.

[SmartyBarrett]

No new brackets this morning, but here's an update. I also took a look at College Sports Madness bracket to compare the differences between the two and where URI falls NET-wise. It's feeling REALLY bubbly right now. Saturday is a borderline must-win.

ESPN

29 - Gonzaga (LFI)
30 - Colorado (LFB)
39 - Missouri State (LFB)
44 - Duke (LFB)

46 - Kentucky (NFO)
47 - DePaul (LFI)
49 - Oregon State (FFO)
50 - Rhode Island (FFO)

51 - Florida State (NFO)
54 - Mississippi State (L4B)
56 - Boston College (LFI)
60 - Miami (LFI)

65 - Northwestern (FFO)
70 - Marquette (NFO)
72 - Tulane (NFO)
75 - Villanova (FFO)

COLLEGE SPORTS MADNESS

39 - Missouri State (LFI)
41 - Arizona State (FFO)
46 - Kentucky (FFO)
47 - DePaul (FFO)

50 - Rhode Island
56 - Boston College (LFI)
65 - Northwestern (FFO)
72 - Tulane (LFI)
75 - Villanova (LFI)

[SmartyBarrett]

New brackets out this AM from both ESPN and College Sports Madness. Starting to look dicey for Rhody. They're sixth out in ESPN and they don't appear in the CSM bracket (they only do first four out). Here's the NET breakdown.

ESPN

28 - Gonzaga (LFI)
39 - Kentucky (LFB)
40 - Missouri State (LFB)
46 - Boston College (LFI)

47 - DePaul (FFO)
49 - Missouri (LFI)
50 - Florida State (FFO)
51 - Miami (LFB)

52 - UMass (NFO)
53 - Duke (NFO)
55 - Rhode Island (NFO)
58 - Washington State (LFB)

59 - Mississippi State (FFO)
64 - Northwestern (LFI)
69 - Tulane (NFO)
77 - Villanova (FFO)


COLLEGE SPORTS MADNESS

27 - Utah (LFI)
37 - Kansas (FFO)
47 - DePaul (LFI)
51 - Miami (FFO)

55 - Rhode Island
64 - Northwestern (LFI)
69 - Tulane (LFI)
70 - Marquette (FFO)
95 - Seton Hall (FFO)


Rhody is still in a solid spot NET-wise, but I think they need to make the finals at the absolute bear minimum. As a side note, Seton Hall in the CSM bracket (???????)