Week #14 - Games of Interest

[Obadiah]

In the AP poll, Dayton moves up to #6, West Virginia in a slight drop to #13, Maryland improves to #9, and LSU moves up 5 spots to #18. URI gets 18 votes in the others category.

In the USA Today/Coaches poll, Dayton moves up one spot to #6 position, Maryland improves to #9, West Virginia remains in the #11 slot, and LSU moves up to #18. Rhode Island gets 8 votes in the others category. Baylor remains as the #1 team in the AP poll and the Coaches' poll.

The cumulative record of URI OOC opponents is 151-103, 0.594, a small drop-off from the previous week.

At the halfway point of conference season, we have one unbeaten team, Dayton at 9-0, and one winless team, Saint Joseph's at 0-9.

With the road win at George Mason and the VCU win at Ryan, the key URI metrics all showed further improvement over the previous week.

NET - 40, up 7
BPI - 50, up 11
Pomeroy - 45, up 11
Sagarin - 45, up 11

There are no Monday evening games in the A-10 or among URI OOC opponents.

[RhowdyRam02]

Tonight's bubble game is

Eighth out Texas at #3 Kansas at 9 on ESPN

[Obadiah]

We are at midpoint in the conference season and here is a summary of the strength of the remaining A-10 schedule for each school. Like all generalizations it fails to depict accurately specific situations, so tread warily. For example, URI faces three clear challenges in Dayton twice and Davidson and plays another five games against the bottom third of the conference and each of the bottom feeders is a potential landmine and given that the Rams have already set off one landmine - Brown - we cannot afford another.

School	       A-10 Record  Remaining Opp. 
                               Record

Dayton	           9-0	       48-33
URI	           8-1	       40-41
VCU	           6-3	       46-35
Richmond	   6-3	       34-47
St. Bonaventure	   6-3	       34-47
Saint Louis	   6-3	       41-40
Duquesne	   6-3	       46-35
Davidson	   5-4	       43-38
GW	           4-5	       45-36
UMass	           3-6	       46-35
George Mason	   2-7	       41-40
La Salle	   1-8	       31-50
Fordham	           1-8	       35-46
Saint Joseph's 	   0-9	       36-45

[Rhody83]

Interesting that Dayton’s remaining opp are 15 games over 500, VCU’s are 11 over 500 and URI’s are 1 under.

[TruePoint]

You’re not counting Dayton twice, right? Or just counting in conference?

[Obadiah]

Further interesting is if you take out URI's remaining opponents in the upper half of the A-10 standings - Dayton (2) and Saint Louis - the record of the remaining six opponents falls to 16-38, .296. That's why URI losing to anybody not named Dayton, Saint Louis, or Davidson will be a disaster.

When you have an unbalanced schedule, you are going to get some bias. St. Bona and Richmond fall into this category and because of their weaker conference schedules, one of them has a good shot at getting a double bye in Brooklyn and the benefits of rest that come with that.

[theblueram]

You’re not counting Dayton twice, right? Or just counting in conference?

I believe he is. So if you back out Dayton, the remaining record of teams we face besides Dayton is 22-41.

[Obadiah]

If your second half schedule includes two games against any opponent, of course, you count them twice to get at the combined won-loss record of the second half of schedule.

[Rhodymob05]

Florida St beats UNC
Kansas beats Texas
Baylor beats K-State

[TruePoint]

If your second half schedule includes two games against any opponent, of course, you count them twice to get at the combined won-loss record of the second half of schedule.

I asked because I could not get to same number that he did.

[Obadiah]

There is only one game in the A-10 on Tuesday evening and that is an important one for URI as they entertain UMass, 7 PM. On CBSSN.

In games involving URI OOC opponents:

Rutgers at #9 Maryland, 7 PM. On FS1.

Tennessee at Alabama, 7 PM. On ESPNU.

[Rhody15]

There is only one game in the A-10 on Tuesday evening and that is an important one for URI as they entertain UMass, 7 PM. On CBSSN.

In games involving URI OOC opponents:

Rutgers at #9 Maryland, 7 PM. On FS1.

Tennessee at Alabama, 7 PM. On ESPNU.

So we’re fighting for Alabama for a bid, but also want them to get into Q1 status for us. Kind of a catch 22.

[bigappleram]

The reality is there will be multiple teams on the cut line, and if we find ourselves there we will be competing with them all. I'd much prefer to have another Q1 win and also the claim that we beat them head to head so IMO we want Alabama to keep on winning.

[TruePoint]

Agree. I want them in the field and then we have another win over an at-large team that helps our case. Obviously there is a limit to that logic, because at a certain point only so many team can get into the field, but when thinking about the potential Q1 wins that we could have, I want Bama and VCU to play their way in - thinking about two teams, it isn’t a zero sum with respect to bids.

[Blue Man]

Agree. I want them in the field and then we have another win over an at-large team that helps our case. Obviously there is a limit to that logic, because at a certain point only so many team can get into the field, but when thinking about the potential Q1 wins that we could have, I want Bama and VCU to play their way in - thinking about two teams, it isn’t a zero sum with respect to bids.

If VCU plays their way into a Q1, I have no problem with Bama staying a Q2 and dropping a couple.

Still think we need a Dayton win and no more Q3/Q4 losses to feel safe. In terms of having a heart attack down the stretch, I still think it's a 7-2 minimum as long as it breaks down like this: 5-0 against the Q3/Q4 games, 0-2 against the Q2 games, and 1-1 against the Q1 games gets us in the field safely.

[Obadiah]

Draw your own conclusions from this progressive summary. Some schools are quite stable as others decline.
Both Duquesne and George Mason played cream puffs in the OOC, but Duquesne is the better team and has handled conference play a lot better. And LSU shows what a 10 game winning streak can do for a team, especially if a good part of it comes in conference play.

NET RANKING* of A-10 TEAMS

School	       Week 7  Week 8	  Week 9   Week 10  Week 11    Week 12  Week 13  Week 14

Dayton	         #10	 #14       #12       #8        #8        #5       #5       #5		
Duquesne	 #20	 #66       #105      #66       #47       #55      #92      #88	
Richmond	 #22	 #54       #77       #53       #63       #56      #55      #56
VCU	         #52	 #58       #52       #34       #43       #45      #39      #36		
Saint Louis	 #66	 #61       #60       #74       #48       #54      #69      #68		
George Mason	 #67	 #72       #71       #119      #140      #171     #168     #180		
Rhode Island	 #72	 #80       #69       #91       #67       #61      #47      #40		
Davidson	#101	 #99       #94       #94       #112      #107     #98      #98		
La Salle	#130	#123       #119      #136      #179      #174     #173     #162		
UMass	        #158	#139       #128      #121      #127      #175     #164     #179		
St. Bonaventure	#189	#180       #176      #169      #141      #128     #133     #126		
Saint Joseph's	#228	#210       #210      #222      #221      #202     #223     #221		
GW    	        #235	#232       #226      #256      #244      #196     #195     #198		
Fordham	        #258	#267       #266      #258      #284      #274     #274     #273	
				

NET RANKING* of URI OOC OPPONENTS

School	        Week 7	Week 8	  Week 9    Week 10   Week 11  Week 12  Week 13  Week 14

Maryland	 #11	  #20       #16       #14       #17	 #15      #13      #11
West Virginia	 #12	  #10       #9        #12       #10      #9       #7       #9		
LSU	         #26	  #57       #41       #30       #28	 #23      #25      #22	
W. Kentucky	 #84	  #95       #122      #118      #119     #119     #112     #119	
Alabama	         #96	  #77       #65       #64       #61      #42      #41      #41		
North Texas	 #98	 #110       #111      #105      #102     #92      #78      #94		
Nicholls State	#114	 #193       #192      #162      #136     #179     #180     #193		
Providence	#146	 #119       #129      #100      #90      #79      #79      #65		
Long Island	#231	 #247	    #256      #270      #274     #242     #253     #248	
Brown	        #256	 #252       #259      #237      #209     #220     #228     #229		
Manhattan	#260	 #273       #274      #246      #226     #227     #240     #236		
Mid. Tennessee  #283	 #291       #296      #311      #319     #328     #318     #287
				
* Rankings continually change with new game results, but both ranking comparisons are based on rankings as of Monday morning of each week. 

[phipsiGD'11]

I don't pretend to understand these metrics, but it is still insanity that VCU is still 4 spots ahead of us in NET. I know people will point to these numbers or those numbers, BUT WE BEAT THEM TWICE!

[CHICO 78]

Unfortunately we lost to 3 out of 4 of the OOC's with the best NET and we got THUMPED by BROWN (10pt loss).
That was a killer , losing to a team with a NET of 229.

[RhowdyRam02]

Tonight's bubble game is

Eighth out Texas at #3 Kansas at 9 on ESPN

Texas lost 69-58. Bubble teams are now 38-42

[RhowdyRam02]

In tonight's bubble action

Fourth to last bye Oklahoma is at Texas Tech at 9 on ESPN2
We're second to last bye and host Massachusetts at 7 on CBSSN
Last bye Mississippi State is at #15 Kentucky at 9 on ESPN
Last in Xavier is at DePaul at 9 on FS1
Seventh out Virginia Tech is at Georgia Tech at 7

[theblueram]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... -cut-line/

Bubble teams in action tonight.

[Rhody83]

Agree. I want them in the field and then we have another win over an at-large team that helps our case. Obviously there is a limit to that logic, because at a certain point only so many team can get into the field, but when thinking about the potential Q1 wins that we could have, I want Bama and VCU to play their way in - thinking about two teams, it isn’t a zero sum with respect to bids.

If VCU plays their way into a Q1, I have no problem with Bama staying a Q2 and dropping a couple.

Still think we need a Dayton win and no more Q3/Q4 losses to feel safe. In terms of having a heart attack down the stretch, I still think it's a 7-2 minimum as long as it breaks down like this: 5-0 against the Q3/Q4 games, 0-2 against the Q2 games, and 1-1 against the Q1 games gets us in the field safely.

If URI finishes 15-3 and second in the A10 they are in even if their two remaining losses are to Dayton.

[RF1]

In tonight's bubble action

Fourth to last bye Oklahoma is at Texas Tech at 9 on ESPN2
We're second to last bye and host Massachusetts at 7 on CBSSN
Last bye Mississippi State is at #15 Kentucky at 9 on ESPN
Last in Xavier is at DePaul at 9 on FS1
Seventh out Virginia Tech is at Georgia Tech at 7

Va Tech loses at sub .500 Ga Tech 76-57
Alabama loses at home to Tenn 69-68
Maryland at home beats Rutgers 56-51

[Rhody15]

Oklahoma and Miss St both lose.

[TruePoint]

Alabama blew a 15 point lead at home to Tennessee and lost in the final seconds, 69-68.

[reef]

Ouch tough loss for Bama and may knock our NET down a couple spots ??

[Obadiah]

Wednesday night games in the A-10:

George Washington at St. Bonaventure, 7 PM.

Duquesne at Saint Louis, 7 PM. On ESPN+


In games involving URI OOC opponents:

Iowa State at #12 West Virginia, 7 PM. On ESPN2.

Creighton at Providence, 7 PM.

Nicholls at Stephen F. Austin, 7:30 PM. On ESPN+.

#18 LSU at Vanderbilt, 9 PM. On SECN.

[RhowdyRam02]

In tonight's bubble action

Fourth to last bye Oklahoma is at Texas Tech at 9 on ESPN2
We're second to last bye and host Massachusetts at 7 on CBSSN
Last bye Mississippi State is at #15 Kentucky at 9 on ESPN
Last in Xavier is at DePaul at 9 on FS1
Seventh out Virginia Tech is at Georgia Tech at 7

Oklahoma lost 69-61
We beat UMass 73-67
Mississippi State lost 80-72
Xavier won 67-59
Virginia Tech lost 76-57

Bubble teams are 40-45

[RhowdyRam02]

In tonight's bubble action

Third to last bye Florida vs Georgia at 7 on ESPNU
Fourth to last in Virginia vs Clemson at 7
Second to last in Memphis vs Temple at 8 on CBSSN
Second out Georgetown vs #12 Seton Hall at 8:30 on FS1
Fifth out NC State at Miami at 8:30

[Rhody15]

PC is gonna sneak onto the bubble aren’t they...

[Rhodymob05]

PC and the Dukes win.

[Obadiah]

Two results in the A-10 tonight. Without the services of leading scorer, Armel Potter, GW falls at St. Bona, 72-47.

Duquesne in a impressive performance beats Saint Louis, 82-68.

[Justns11]

PC is gonna sneak onto the bubble aren’t they...

At 13-10?

[Rhody15]

PC is gonna sneak onto the bubble aren’t they...

At 13-10?

Did you think we’d make our way onto the bubble at 8-5 after losses @ Brown and home against Richmond?

PC is talented and has the schedule to pick up multiple marquee wins.

Not saying it’ll happen, but it wouldn’t shock me.

[rjsuperfly66]

PC is gonna sneak onto the bubble aren’t they...

At 13-10?

They aren’t there yet but they aren’t far off. Their NET will be in the 50s, 6-6 Q1/Q2. Still have to bury their bad losses but if they can go 5-3 down the stretch that would have them 11-9 in Q1/Q2 games and that would hold with many teams on the bubble, even with the bad losses.

[theblueram]

PC is gonna sneak onto the bubble aren’t they...

At 13-10?

They aren’t there yet but they aren’t far off. Their NET will be in the 50s, 6-6 Q1/Q2. Still have to bury their bad losses but if they can go 5-3 down the stretch that would have them 11-9 in Q1/Q2 games and that would hold with many teams on the bubble, even with the bad losses.

What team on the bubble has 10 losses? None. So unless the bubbles teams crap the bed, pc is going to the NIT.

[Section104]

At 13-10?

They aren’t there yet but they aren’t far off. Their NET will be in the 50s, 6-6 Q1/Q2. Still have to bury their bad losses but if they can go 5-3 down the stretch that would have them 11-9 in Q1/Q2 games and that would hold with many teams on the bubble, even with the bad losses.

What team on the bubble has 10 losses? None. So unless the bubbles teams crap the bed, pc is going to the NIT.

Purdue is probably squarely in after their route against Iowa tonight and has 10 losses.

[theblueram]

They aren’t there yet but they aren’t far off. Their NET will be in the 50s, 6-6 Q1/Q2. Still have to bury their bad losses but if they can go 5-3 down the stretch that would have them 11-9 in Q1/Q2 games and that would hold with many teams on the bubble, even with the bad losses.

What team on the bubble has 10 losses? None. So unless the bubbles teams crap the bed, pc is going to the NIT.

Purdue is probably squarely in after their route against Iowa tonight and has 10 losses.

Let me know when pc makes it on Bracket Matrix with one vote. Right now they are below Alcorn State.

[rjsuperfly66]

At 13-10?

They aren’t there yet but they aren’t far off. Their NET will be in the 50s, 6-6 Q1/Q2. Still have to bury their bad losses but if they can go 5-3 down the stretch that would have them 11-9 in Q1/Q2 games and that would hold with many teams on the bubble, even with the bad losses.

What team on the bubble has 10 losses? None. So unless the bubbles teams crap the bed, pc is going to the NIT.

Every year there is at least one or two 14+ loss teams in the tournament. Florida was 19-15 and Ohio St was 19-14 last season. In 2018 Texas was 19-14, and Alabama was 19-15. That doesn’t count numerous 13 loss teams.

PC still has a lot of work to do, but if they can get to 18-13 before the BET, they’ll be right there for a bid depending on what other teams do and what they do in the conference tournament.

[Section104]

What team on the bubble has 10 losses? None. So unless the bubbles teams crap the bed, pc is going to the NIT.

Purdue is probably squarely in after their route against Iowa tonight and has 10 losses.

Let me know when pc makes it on Bracket Matrix with one vote. Right now they are below Alcorn State.

That wasn’t my argument. I was just saying your point about there are no 10 loss teams on the bubble was incorrect.

I still think PC can play their way in with a strong finish.

[bigappleram]

PC is creeping close to the bubble. Thanks to inflated numbers of teams like Butler and Creighton. Along with Marquette and our own VCU amongst the most over ranked teams in the country. Creightons best OOC wins are against a middling Oklahoma and a Texas Tech team that was short handed in November. Lost by 30 to San Diego State, 30. Their offensive efficiency is good which drives their numbers. Zero inside game, 2-3 good guards who can be contained which is just what PC did. Wildly overrated. Would love to play them in the tourney, Cyril would have a field day.

[TruePoint]

PC could make a run. Definitely not out of the question.

[Rhodymob05]

We moved up 2 spots on Kenpom (47)

[theblueram]

PC could make a run. Definitely not out of the question.

I'll take that bet.

[bigappleram]

I agree PC could make a run, they have talent and besides Seton Hall every other team in that league is very beatable.

[Rhody15]

I would much prefer them staying Q2 and the hell away from the tourney though.

[TruePoint]

PC could make a run. Definitely not out of the question.

I'll take that bet.

I’d need good odds, because I’m not predicting they will I’m just saying it’s possible. I’m not rooting for it, either. My main concern is that they stay comfortably inside the top 75. Beyond that I don’t care what happens with them.

[theblueram]

I agree PC could make a run, they have talent and besides Seton Hall every other team in that league is very beatable.

Umm, pc isn't even close to the bubble.

[Rhody15]

I agree PC could make a run, they have talent and besides Seton Hall every other team in that league is very beatable.

Umm, pc isn't even close to the bubble.

Nobody ever said they’re on the bubble, I initially said/questioned that they’re gonna make their way onto the bubble.

[theblueram]

I agree PC could make a run, they have talent and besides Seton Hall every other team in that league is very beatable.

Umm, pc isn't even close to the bubble.

Nobody ever said they’re on the bubble, I initially said/questioned that they’re gonna make their way onto the bubble.

Well at this point it's a dumb question. pc is not even close to the bubble.