12/29 | Middle Tennessee | 4:30PM (No TV?)

[spookydog]

University of Rhode Island vs Middle Tennessee State University
Murphy Athletic Center, Murfreesboro, TN
Sunday, December 29, 2019
4:30PM

Media
TV: None?
Online: None?
Radio: 101.5 FM (B101) or iHeart Radio App
Tune In Radio

Previews:
Middle Tennessee Fan Forum

This is the second game in a row against a Conference USA opponent as URI travels to Murfreesboro, Tennessee to close out a home and home series with the Blue Raiders. Last year at the Ryan Center, Rhody was up just one halfway through the second half but thanks to a 15-0 run that lead ballooned to 16 & it gave URI the win. Middle Tennessee has four wins on the season but three of those wins are against non-D1 opponents. The last game St Bonaventure came to town & they snuck out a one-point win against the Blue Raiders. I think Rhody’s size with Cyril, Harris & Walker will be too much for MTSU to handle. I would like to see Jeff get his shot back in this one. The rims have been very unkind to him as he has had many shots rattle out & is only shooting a smidge under 30% in his last 3 outings. URI should end 2019 with a road win before heading back to RI to play at Brown in the new year. Happy Holidays Rhody Nation!!

Opponent
Record:
4-8, 0-0 in Conference USA
Last season: 11-21, 8-10 in Conference USA

Rankings:
RPI: 263
KenPom: 273
NCAA NET: 291

Leaders :
Points – C.J. Jones, 17.6 (Jr., G)
Rebounds – Tyson Jackson, 5.8 (Fr., F)
Assists – Donovan Sims, 3.9 (Jr., G) (2.0 TO per game)

Historical
Series: 1-0
H: 1-0, A: 0-0, N: 0-0
Most Recent Matchup: 12/30/18 72-60 W at URI
Most Recent Win Streak: 1 – URI
Match-up Predictor: 68.5% Chance of URI Winning

[RF1]

It may be available via paid subscription on CUSA.TV

http://conferenceusa.com/watch/default.aspx?Live=11176

[Ramtastico]

I’ll be there, driving up from ATL.

[PeterRamTime]

I'll be there, visiting family in TN.

Tickets only 15 bucks for basically anywhere.

[rhodyfan3000]

$6.95, one time, 24 hour pass

http://conferenceusa.com/watch/purchase.aspx#register

[section(105)]

........Team Rankings gives their #78 ranked URI a 80% chance to beat the #246 ranked Middle Tenn.......they give URI 25% chance to Dance......

[rhodyfan3000]

Link to broadcast:

http://conferenceusa.com/watch/default. ... _tennessee

[Section104]

I’ll be there with my wife - we live in Nashville so this was a dream scenario. Not bad for at least 3 KB members to be in attendance for an away game against Middle Tennessee.

[Ramulous]

4 KBers there.....I'm going....

[reef]

So is it free or do we have to pay ?? The last link says free

[spookydog]

So is it free or do we have to pay ?? The last link says free

Audio is free. Video is not

[reef]

God dammit will have to break down and purchase game is too darn important not to see it

[theblueram]

I'll wait until game day. Something may break with free video. This is what happens when you go on the road and play a 1 win team.

[KevanBoyles]

This is an important game for us because we haven’t won a true road game and it would be a bad loss (Q4) (against a team with a current 291 NET ranking) with zero “good wins.” If we lose, it will be a big hole to dig out of. Not impossible, but it will make it much harder. We really can’t afford to lose this game.

[TruePoint]

I'll wait until game day. Something may break with free video. This is what happens when you go on the road and play a 1 win team.

When we scheduled this game, Midd Tenn was a wagon. But Kermit Davis left for Ole Miss. Their new coach, Nick McDevitt was at UNC Asheville when we played them a couple of years ago. He can coach, but he’s rebuilding the program as so often happens when a coach leaves a mid-major for the big-time.

[phipsiGD'11]

Reddit will usually have links for live feed games. That's my go to in these situations.

[PeterRamTime]

Yeah it's been crazy how bad they've gotten in such a short amount of time.

Had to start over from scratch completely.

[reef]

Bona just barely beat them we’re down 3 with 30 tics left and won by 1 we need to go in there and grab a win

[Rhodymob05]

And bona sucks

[ramster]

St Bonaventure has won 7 straight games since the return of Osun Osunniyi to the line up. Osunniyi was injured vs Ohio in the 1st game of the season and played only 10 minutes. He listed the next 4 games as Bonnie’s lost 4 of their first 5

@ Middle Tennessee, the preseason 1st Team All A10 3rd team selection had 15 points, 16 rebounds, 5 blocked shots in 37 minute. Obviously they are a different team with Osunniyi.


Last season in the A10 Tournament Bonnie’s beat us 68-51 as Osunniyi played 38 minutes registering a double-double with 4 blocks. Will be a tough game this season being played in Olean.

[KevanBoyles]

St Bonaventure has won 7 straight games since the return of Osun Osunniyi to the line up. Osunniyi was injured vs Ohio in the 1st game of the season and played only 10 minutes. He listed the next 4 games as Bonnie’s lost 4 of their first 5

@ Middle Tennessee, the preseason 1st Team All A10 3rd team selection had 15 points, 16 rebounds, 5 blocked shots in 37 minute. Obviously they are a different team with Osunniyi.


Last season in the A10 Tournament Bonnie’s beat us 68-51 as Osunniyi played 38 minutes registering a double-double with 4 blocks. Will be a tough game this season being played in Olean.

Six of the seven straight wins were at home so we know they protect there own court well. Struggled on the road against a weak team in Middle Tennessee though.

[rambone 78]

Osunniyi is by far their best player.

Played a weak schedule who have they beaten?

Mid pack A10 team. Down year for them.

[Ramulous]

The guard for MidTennSt was 6-8 from 3 point land.......he carried the team.....

[Obadiah]

While Middle Tennessee fell on hard times last season, they did play their best game of the year in the match-up at Ryan and led the Rams by six points well into the second half. This will be URI's third true road game, after Maryland and WVU, and will give the Rams an opportunity to show the team's character as they play before a hostile crowd in a tune up for conference play. While MTSU ranks along with LIU , Manhattan, and Brown on the low side of the NET rankings, the Rams can not take this game lightly.

[rambone 78]

The Rams can not take any game lightly no matter where it is.

If they play like they did on the road against WV they will win easily.

Easily is a good thing. They need to do that more often!

[hrstrat57]

Bone where exactly this year did you feel the team played poorly or did not give max effort?

Man I’m just not seeing it...

[Rhody83]

They have had close games at home with teams that are 150+ ranked.

[PeterRamTime]

We ought to blow these guys out.

Plain and simple.

[reef]

We should but will we that’s the question ??

[rambone 78]

Again, we've won the games we were favored in, but didn't cover the spreads in most of them.

That has hurt our ratings to this point.

We have played OK for the most part overall, not great but enough.

We've had our bad stretches in games, and some good ones as well.

Going forward, we have to pick things up a notch.

If we don't, we're going to struggle especially when we get into conference play.

I do have more hope that we will play a little better, since it looks like Walker will help quite a bit.

In other words, I think we now have a shot to dance, where before Walker I was extremely skeptical.

[PeterRamTime]

Again, we've won the games we were favored in, but didn't cover the spreads in most of them.

That has hurt our ratings to this point.

We have played OK for the most part overall, not great but enough.

We've had our bad stretches in games, and some good ones as well.

Going forward, we have to pick things up a notch.

If we don't, we're going to struggle especially when we get into conference play.

I do have more hope that we will play a little better, since it looks like Walker will help quite a bit.

In other words, I think we now have a shot to dance, where before Walker I was extremely skeptical.

The supporting casts improvement should help all of that especially if Dowtin and Fatts are shooting at a more efficient rate.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Just keep winning and the ratings will take care of themselves. Take Rhody and the over.

[rhodyfan3000]

Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about ratings. During the Baron years, we used to beat our chest every year when we were top 25 early in the season, which happened more often then you might image, only to finish out with a whimper and not even make the NIT.

I like what I saw last year, with Cox's team finishing strong, like a tourney contender. Just keep doing that, and literally everything will take care of itself.

[theblueram]

We should beat this team by 20 on the road. No excuses.

[McRam]

So for those who believe in Sagarin's ratings and to get a calibration on Middle Tenn he currently has Fordham one slot lower at a ranking of 273.

Guessing a line of -10 1/2. Get nervous of covering any long layoff game.

[reef]

I will guess -7.5 Bona was -5.5 so I am thinking add 2 points to that

[RhodyKyle]

My guess will be the line opens around -12.5 or -13.

When looking at the advanced stats, MT is woeful in every offensive category. They are 260 or worse in everything (2pt shooting, 3pt shooting, FT shooting, holding onto the ball). To match that, URI has a solid defense but they really do excel at turning teams over (I would guess that 1 in 5 MT possessions result in a turnover for URI).

Nothing to really note about the URI offense/MT defense match up other than URI isn't a great shooting team but for as pedestrian as URI is on offense, MT is as subpar on defense, especially 3pt defense. MT is allowing teams to shoot almost 42% from 3 when the D1 average is 33%.

As long as the team realizes what their goals are for this season and what a loss here would do to those goals, they will be highly motivated and should have no trouble getting a W. I wouldn't put much stock in the Bonnies game. The Bonnies were only predicted to win that game by a small margin (as their KenPom ranking went from 124 before the game to 125 after the 1-pt win). I agree with theblueram's sentiment.

[rambone 78]

-12 or -13 is too high imo.

More like -8 or -9. Home team gets 3 or 4 points in every case.

Looks like, as in the Bonnies case, since they didn't cover their KenPom number still didn't move much.

If you don't cover as a favorite at home you lose more it seems.

That's what has been happening to us.

[Obadiah]

Average stats are nice, but what actually happens in specific stretches is more important. For example, you say MT is not a good 3-point shooting team, but in last season's game at Ryan they hit their threes at a 43% clip and were especially torrid in the first half. Sims and Green did the most trey damage then and both players are back and the duo is augmented by CJ Jones, the 6-5 redshirt junior guard who put in 6-8 of treys against the Bonnies as part of the team's 11 treys, 42%. Looking at the bright side, the Bomnies had a bad three point shooting time at MT (4 total, 26%), but still managed to win the game. So great three point shooting can be overcome. MT has problems protecting the ball as shown by 16 TO's last year and they committed the same number in their recent game against the Bonnies.

[TruePoint]

If you don't cover as a favorite at home you lose more it seems.

That's what has been happening to us.

This is sort of true, in that the Vegas line is usually somewhat related to the efficiency metrics, but technically Kenpom and Sagarin and the others don’t actually care about “covering the line,” they care about how you perform relative to the expectations of their model. Saying that you get punished for not covering is an OK shorthand most of the time for what is actually happening, but it might not always hold up as there are times when the line is not an exact match for the model’s expectations (usually when there is significant money on one side that moves the line or an injury is factored in by Vegas that the models aren’t built to account for).

[rhodyfan3000]

So, now you have to run the other team out of the building to score points in this rating system?

It's a good thing the NFL isn't run like that. How many times over the last 20 years did the Patriots barely escape with a win or beat the other team by 1 point? Sure, Total Points is a tie breaker down the line, if it comes to that.

I don't like it because it defeats the most important principle in sports, IMO, which is it doesn't matter if you win by 1 or by 100, just win, baby.

Winning on the road should be a feather in your cap no matter who it is, where it is, etc. Automatically.

[RamStock]

My guess will be the line opens around -12.5 or -13.

When looking at the advanced stats, MT is woeful in every offensive category. They are 260 or worse in everything (2pt shooting, 3pt shooting, FT shooting, holding onto the ball). To match that, URI has a solid defense but they really do excel at turning teams over (I would guess that 1 in 5 MT possessions result in a turnover for URI).

Nothing to really note about the URI offense/MT defense match up other than URI isn't a great shooting team but for as pedestrian as URI is on offense, MT is as subpar on defense, especially 3pt defense. MT is allowing teams to shoot almost 42% from 3 when the D1 average is 33%.

As long as the team realizes what their goals are for this season and what a loss here would do to those goals, they will be highly motivated and should have no trouble getting a W. I wouldn't put much stock in the Bonnies game. The Bonnies were only predicted to win that game by a small margin (as their KenPom ranking went from 124 before the game to 125 after the 1-pt win). I agree with theblueram's sentiment.

We have won zero road games this year and won one tight neutral game against North Texas. We have not shown that we are a dominant team that can lay 13 on the road. Can they win by this much? Obviously they can as Middle Tennessee State is not a good team. It would seem to be more around 8 or 9

[TruePoint]

So, now you have to run the other team out of the building to score points in this rating system?

It's a good thing the NFL isn't run like that. How many times over the last 20 years did the Patriots barely escape with a win or beat the other team by 1 point? Sure, Total Points is a tie breaker down the line, if it comes to that.

I don't like it because it defeats the most important principle in sports, IMO, which is it doesn't matter if you win by 1 or by 100, just win, baby.

I agree with this, and I’ve made essentially this same point:

Bit of an off-topic rant: as some people here may know, even though I love data I am somewhat skeptical of these systems being used for any official purpose. I love them for gambling purposes or making comparisons of teams as a fan. But to rank teams for postseason purposes, I have two major beefs: first, they shouldn’t be allowed to hide elements of the formula. If they are going to make real decisions based on this stuff, the public should be able to verify it. Second, I think that what they weight in terms of efficiency and stuff is good for some sort of analysis, but I don’t think it’s right to rank teams for official purposes based on that - it is essentially rewriting the rules of the sport. The object of the sport is generally understood to be to score more points than the other team in the allotted amount of time in each game, and to win as many games as you can. By including these metrics as official criteria, you are effectively requiring teams to pursue objectives relating to efficiency that are outside of and different than the widely understood objectives that have been codified in the rules of the game since the sports’ inception.

RPI may have been flawed if you tried to use its rankings to bet a game, but it was fair in ways that kenpom and sagarin cannot be because of their complexity. I could explain RPI to a 4th grader in a few sentences, and it only valued things that are basic to the game: did you win or lose, who did you play, where did you play? That’s it. No valuing different styles of play differently, no perverse incentives to play the game differently, no incentive to keep your starters in during a game that is safely in hand. Idk, as much as love data and it adds to my enjoyment of sports overall, I am a little suspicious of being overly reliant on it. I don’t want them to start awarding playoff spots to teams with the highest WAR in baseball, or DVOA in football or PER in basketball. The point of sports is to win the games, so using any performance metric outside of wins and losses for officially ranking teams seems unwise to me.

There was a bit of a discussion of this in another thread earlier:

https://keaneyblue.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=8202#p417232

[Obadiah]

So, now you have to run the other team out of the building to score points in this rating system?

It's a good thing the NFL isn't run like that. How many times over the last 20 years did the Patriots barely escape with a win or beat the other team by 1 point? Sure, Total Points is a tie breaker down the line, if it comes to that.

I don't like it because it defeats the most important principle in sports, IMO, which is it doesn't matter if you win by 1 or by 100, just win, baby.

Winning on the road should be a feather in your cap no matter who it is, where it is, etc. Automatically.

The new NET ranking system is based on game results, game location, scoring margin (capped at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency. They had considered other factors such as an uncapped scoring margin, but decided not to include in equation.

[rambone 78]

The scoring margin factor has affected us negatively to this point, since most of our games it's been less than 10 against teams we should have beaten by more.

Have to start winning games by more than 10 I guess.

[RhodyKyle]

My guess will be the line opens around -12.5 or -13.

When looking at the advanced stats, MT is woeful in every offensive category. They are 260 or worse in everything (2pt shooting, 3pt shooting, FT shooting, holding onto the ball). To match that, URI has a solid defense but they really do excel at turning teams over (I would guess that 1 in 5 MT possessions result in a turnover for URI).

Nothing to really note about the URI offense/MT defense match up other than URI isn't a great shooting team but for as pedestrian as URI is on offense, MT is as subpar on defense, especially 3pt defense. MT is allowing teams to shoot almost 42% from 3 when the D1 average is 33%.

As long as the team realizes what their goals are for this season and what a loss here would do to those goals, they will be highly motivated and should have no trouble getting a W. I wouldn't put much stock in the Bonnies game. The Bonnies were only predicted to win that game by a small margin (as their KenPom ranking went from 124 before the game to 125 after the 1-pt win). I agree with theblueram's sentiment.

We have won zero road games this year and won one tight neutral game against North Texas. We have not shown that we are a dominant team that can lay 13 on the road. Can they win by this much? Obviously they can as Middle Tennessee State is not a good team. It would seem to be more around 8 or 9

True road games against the #8 and #23 teams (using kenpom) and MT is #272. Comparing apples to lawmowers doesn't work. Don't forget they almost took down that #23 team in their building.

Lines will open close to KenPom and Sagarin then the public will move it. It will open in double digits then may get bet down to your 8 or 9 range. They may not have covered @ UMD or against LSU, but they did cover that North Texas game and @ WVU.

[Obadiah]

Middle Tennessee has played five home games, but three of them were against teams in D2, D3, and a Christian bible college. The Rams visit will be their third against a D1 team. They lost both their previous two, by one point to the Bonnies and 12 to Belmont, the favorite to win the Ohio Valley crown. In the Belmont game, MT fell behind by 20 points in the first ten minutes on some great 3 point shooting by Belmont. As Belmont shooting cooled, MT was able to recover nicely so that midway through the second half they took a 7 point lead, but Belmont regained the lead in the last 5 minutes to take the win.

Given URI shooting woes, it would help if URI came out fast and strong defensively to avoid the need for late game heroics al la WKU.

[TruePoint]

That is a truly wild game, to go from up 20 to down 7 to win by 12!

[rhodyfan3000]

We are going to need late game heroics. It's just built into our team DNA.

There will be a few lead changes with Rhody either trying to hold onto or trying to take back the lead at the end.

Of all the games you mentioned as a barometer, I'm going to arbitrarily take the Bonnies as the game that will most closely mirror this one. We are playing a competitive team on the road, that's still counts for something. We need to go in there like Western Kentucky came into our building and not let up.

[theblueram]

I still don't see how this game is close. They are 1-8 against D1. If we have NCAAT aspirations, this game should not be close.