2019 NCAA Tournament Bubble

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

Looking at 3 of the Non P5 Conferences
A10
(22-6) VCU NET 37, RPI 23
(20-8) Davidson NET 76, RPI 52. Very significant gap of 24 between NET and RPI
(19-10) Dayton NET 73 (Down from 66 after last night) RPI 75 (Down from 64 after last night)

Big East
(23-5) Marquette NET 21, RPI 14, Nationally Ranked #10
(21-8) Villanova NET 27, RPI 18
(15-13) Butler NET 55, RPI 74
(15-13) Creighton NET 56, RPI 70
(20-9) St John's NET 59, RPI 44

AAC
(27-1) Houston NET 4, RPI 4, Nationally Ranked #8
(24-4) Cincinnati NET 22, RPI 15, Nationally Ranked #23
(21-6) UCF NET 30, RPI 29
(18-11) Memphis NET 53, RPI 58
(20-8) Temple NET 56, RPI 31

2 games today with:
UCF @ Houston
Memphis @ Cincinnati

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 5 years ago

Seems like a decent year for the All Anywhere Conference...potentially 3+ bids.
Where does that conference rank?

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

Ramster, I think you are too analytical for your own good. It's one thing to draw conclusions on players from their stats, but the NCAA Tournament selection committee hasn't and won't ever be numerically based. Numbers may have a small impact, but you can't just make a sweeping declaration like you did about the Big East "Looks at this time like only 2 Big East Teams to the dance," because at this time, that is a pretty bad take. St. John's is in 99 out of 100 brackets on Bracket Matrix, and has an average seeding of a 9 seed. On BM, Seton Hall as the last team in and Butler as one of the first four out. It's very unlikely that the Big East only gets 2 teams in. Compared to other years? A low output, a reloading year if you will. But still probably 3, if not 4 bids. Not 2.

But you do it to your own conference as well, so I know it's not necessarily bias. You claim, "The 37 puts VCU on the bubble if they lose the A10 Championship." Right now VCU is the top 10 seed on Bracket Matrix, in 100 out of 100 brackets. If VCU goes undefeated until the A10T, I'd bet they are in the 8-9 range. Even in a loss, I think they are probably a 10 seed, comfortably in the tournament. I know the word "bubble" is somewhat open-ended, but to me the bubble is a team that has a possibility of making/missing the tournament. At this point, I think it would be shocking to see VCU miss the tournament with only one additional loss.

The only caveat I would add is that we don't know how the committee will interpret the NET, but I think at right now we can only follow the people who have done this and are connected to people who know things.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster, I think you are too analytical for your own good. It's one thing to draw conclusions on players from their stats, but the NCAA Tournament selection committee hasn't and won't ever be numerically based. Numbers may have a small impact, but you can't just make a sweeping declaration like you did about the Big East "Looks at this time like only 2 Big East Teams to the dance," because at this time, that is a pretty bad take. St. John's is in 99 out of 100 brackets on Bracket Matrix, and has an average seeding of a 9 seed. On BM, Seton Hall as the last team in and Butler as one of the first four out. It's very unlikely that the Big East only gets 2 teams in. Compared to other years? A low output, a reloading year if you will. But still probably 3, if not 4 bids. Not 2.

But you do it to your own conference as well, so I know it's not necessarily bias. You claim, "The 37 puts VCU on the bubble if they lose the A10 Championship." Right now VCU is the top 10 seed on Bracket Matrix, in 100 out of 100 brackets. If VCU goes undefeated until the A10T, I'd bet they are in the 8-9 range. Even in a loss, I think they are probably a 10 seed, comfortably in the tournament. I know the word "bubble" is somewhat open-ended, but to me the bubble is a team that has a possibility of making/missing the tournament. At this point, I think it would be shocking to see VCU miss the tournament with only one additional loss.

In addition BAR, I do not like the Big East

But in past years teams with RPIs in the mid 50's would not get in as an At Large - right?
Has something changed?
I thought the NET was supposed to make everything analytical and solve world hunger

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

Some teams with NET ratings in the 50's will get in, and some with ratings in the 40's will get left out.

Could possibly even have a team or 2 in the 60's get in, and 30's out.

I will be very surprised if neither of those things happen. Doesn't even factor in bid stealers.

VCU imo is a lock if they don't lose before the A10 tourney. Even with a loss, if they make the semis they are in.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

But Rambone, the new NET was supposed to be accurate, an all new approach so that they could use it to select the Teams more accurately and with less controversy

I would be wiling to bet that there will be more upset Teams this year than in the past who have low RPIs but their NET keeps them out.
Temple is one of the candidates for this, as is St John's, VCU and Davidson

The P5's stand to benefit - who wudda thunk it?

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

Imo there are only 3 teams that can win the A10 tournament...VCU, Dayton, and Davidson.

Bonnies? Nice story....no way.
Duquesne...no Carry, no chance.
Mason...not good enough.

And I might get slammed for this....URI...not consistent enough.

We have played well 2 games in a row...something we haven't done much of this season...4 games in a row? Maybe next year when we hopefully only have to win 3 in a row.

Could I change my tune? Only if we beat Joes and UMass, and play well doing so.

ramster, like always the P5's benefit...and this system only gives the committee more leeway to screw the mid majors.

St. Johns will get in...they are VERY inconsistent but have enough big wins....Seton Hall and Butler should not...but don't be surprised.

Hell, don't WE now have 2 Q1 wins? That's more than Dayton has....put me in, coach! Ha ha.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster, I think you are too analytical for your own good. It's one thing to draw conclusions on players from their stats, but the NCAA Tournament selection committee hasn't and won't ever be numerically based. Numbers may have a small impact, but you can't just make a sweeping declaration like you did about the Big East "Looks at this time like only 2 Big East Teams to the dance," because at this time, that is a pretty bad take. St. John's is in 99 out of 100 brackets on Bracket Matrix, and has an average seeding of a 9 seed. On BM, Seton Hall as the last team in and Butler as one of the first four out. It's very unlikely that the Big East only gets 2 teams in. Compared to other years? A low output, a reloading year if you will. But still probably 3, if not 4 bids. Not 2.

But you do it to your own conference as well, so I know it's not necessarily bias. You claim, "The 37 puts VCU on the bubble if they lose the A10 Championship." Right now VCU is the top 10 seed on Bracket Matrix, in 100 out of 100 brackets. If VCU goes undefeated until the A10T, I'd bet they are in the 8-9 range. Even in a loss, I think they are probably a 10 seed, comfortably in the tournament. I know the word "bubble" is somewhat open-ended, but to me the bubble is a team that has a possibility of making/missing the tournament. At this point, I think it would be shocking to see VCU miss the tournament with only one additional loss.
In addition BAR, I do not like the Big East

But in past years teams with RPIs in the mid 50's would not get in as an At Large - right?
Has something changed?
I thought the NET was supposed to make everything analytical and solve world hunger

Teams with RPI's in the 50s got at-large bids all the time. Teams with RPI's in the 70s have gotten at-large bids. Just a few years ago, Vanderbilt made it with an RPI of 71.
The problem with all numbers is that the committee has already said like all years that they adjust for things.
For example, St. John's -- Ponds missed their loss to DePaul (0-1). Heron has missed 3 games this year (1-2).
Those are their two best players, and things that the numbers don't account for.
That's why we can't just make sweeping generalizations based simply on where the rate in a specific metric, because you can't adjust for things like that.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago
ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster, I think you are too analytical for your own good. It's one thing to draw conclusions on players from their stats, but the NCAA Tournament selection committee hasn't and won't ever be numerically based. Numbers may have a small impact, but you can't just make a sweeping declaration like you did about the Big East "Looks at this time like only 2 Big East Teams to the dance," because at this time, that is a pretty bad take. St. John's is in 99 out of 100 brackets on Bracket Matrix, and has an average seeding of a 9 seed. On BM, Seton Hall as the last team in and Butler as one of the first four out. It's very unlikely that the Big East only gets 2 teams in. Compared to other years? A low output, a reloading year if you will. But still probably 3, if not 4 bids. Not 2.

But you do it to your own conference as well, so I know it's not necessarily bias. You claim, "The 37 puts VCU on the bubble if they lose the A10 Championship." Right now VCU is the top 10 seed on Bracket Matrix, in 100 out of 100 brackets. If VCU goes undefeated until the A10T, I'd bet they are in the 8-9 range. Even in a loss, I think they are probably a 10 seed, comfortably in the tournament. I know the word "bubble" is somewhat open-ended, but to me the bubble is a team that has a possibility of making/missing the tournament. At this point, I think it would be shocking to see VCU miss the tournament with only one additional loss.
In addition BAR, I do not like the Big East

But in past years teams with RPIs in the mid 50's would not get in as an At Large - right?
Has something changed?
I thought the NET was supposed to make everything analytical and solve world hunger
Teams with RPI's in the 50s got at-large bids all the time. Teams with RPI's in the 70s have gotten at-large bids. Just a few years ago, Vanderbilt made it with an RPI of 71.
The problem with all numbers is that the committee has already said like all years that they adjust for things.
For example, St. John's -- Ponds missed their loss to DePaul (0-1). Heron has missed 3 games this year (1-2).
Those are their two best players, and things that the numbers don't account for.
That's why we can't just make sweeping generalizations based simply on where the rate in a specific metric, because you can't adjust for things like that.

That was with RPIs which are no longer used.
The NET should eliminate teams with 70's getting in over teams with 40's - unless injuries are considered as they should be

People saying the A10 would only get 1 team in the NCAA in week 2 of the season was a sweeping generality too, right?

Anyway, lots of games to be played yet
Huge game today is UCF at Houston #8 Ranked, #4 NET, #4 RPI. ESPN Game Day will be there.
Huge game for huge Tacko Fall too

Houston has the longest home court winning streak in the Nation

ESPN's COLLEGE GAMEDAY COVERED by STATE FARM
Prior to Saturday's game, Houston Basketball will host ESPN's College GameDay Covered by State Farm live from the Fertitta Center court beginning at 10 a.m.
The national pregame show is hosted by Rece Davis, Jay Bilas, Seth Greenberg and Jay Williams.
Doors open for University of Houston students with ID at 8:30 a.m., Saturday. Doors open for ALL fans beginning at 9 a.m. NO ticket of any kind is required for College GameDay. Admission and parking are FREE and open to all with first-come, first-serve seating in the Fertitta Center.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... -get-hosed

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 5 years ago

Would you guys think it would be a good idea for us to accept a bid to the CBI?

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 5 years ago

P5 and big east teams will get the benefit of any doubt and get into the tournament before stronger members from "untouchable" conferences outside the first 6

It is a fact of life.....the metrics will be ignored if it suits the first 6

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 5 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑5 years ago Would you guys think it would be a good idea for us to accept a bid to the CBI?

......no, no, no......is that the one that teams pay a fee to get “invited”?

Ramulous · Unread post by **Ramulous** » 5 years ago

I hate any tournament except the NCAA......but for this year it is in our teams future interests to play as many post-season games as possible for the kids to be in the crucible....

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

The CBI is a pay to play event.....I doubt we will accept a bid even though the extra experience might be helpful.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
People saying the A10 would only get 1 team in the NCAA in week 2 of the season was a sweeping generality too, right?

Except that has held true pretty much the entire season.

VCU has had to claw their way to being an at-large, having won 15 of their last 17 games.
Only four of those games were against Q1/Q2 opponents, 6-1 in Q3 (2 left), and and 6-0 in Q4 (1 left).
Their schedule has definitely aided in their ascension after starting the season 7-4.
If they are sitting there at 13-4 instead of 15-2, they are "on the bubble."

I don't even know why Dayton was showing up on the bubble anywhere.
They are 3-8 Q1/Q2.
Two of those wins (neutral Tulsa, at St. Bonaventure) are razor thin from being Q3 games, although at URI could become a Q2 win.
They also have two bad losses.
And it's not like they had a super-high NET either.

Davidson's resume is slightly better against Q1/Q2 (5-4), but they have 4 bad losses and like Dayton, 4 of their Q2 wins are razor thin from being Q3 wins (although again at URI could flip and be a Q2 win).

It is why people stressed those OOC games so early.
Missed opportunities and bad losses from the entire conference basically forced teams into perfection to even make their tournament chances interesting.

Rhode_Island_Red · Unread post by **Rhode_Island_Red** » 5 years ago

Ramulous wrote: ↑5 years ago P5 and big east teams will get the benefit of any doubt and get into the tournament before stronger members from "untouchable" conferences outside the first 6

It is a fact of life.....the metrics will be ignored if it suits the first 6

Obvious nepotism hire Dan Gavitt has one job: Don't piss off The Cartel.

rhodylaw · Unread post by **rhodylaw** » 5 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑5 years ago Would you guys think it would be a good idea for us to accept a bid to the CBI?

Depends on other participants

rhodylaw · Unread post by **rhodylaw** » 5 years ago

rambone 78 wrote: ↑5 years ago Some teams with NET ratings in the 50's will get in, and some with ratings in the 40's will get left out.

Could possibly even have a team or 2 in the 60's get in, and 30's out.

I will be very surprised if neither of those things happen. Doesn't even factor in bid stealers.

VCU imo is a lock if they don't lose before the A10 tourney. Even with a loss, if they make the semis they are in.

VCU may struggle to make the semis - likely matchup with Rhody (if we get past game 1) in the quarterfinals.

Rhodyram · Unread post by **Rhodyram** » 5 years ago

section(105) wrote: ↑5 years ago
PeterRamTime wrote: ↑5 years ago Would you guys think it would be a good idea for us to accept a bid to the CBI?
......no, no, no......is that the one that teams pay a fee to get “invited”?

50k I believe

section(105) · Unread post by **section(105)** » 5 years ago

Rhodyram wrote: ↑5 years ago
section(105) wrote: ↑5 years ago
PeterRamTime wrote: ↑5 years ago Would you guys think it would be a good idea for us to accept a bid to the CBI?
......no, no, no......is that the one that teams pay a fee to get “invited”?
50k I believe

......if invited and it is decided to go, Athletics could probably find that amount in couch cushions in the offices.....my thoughts on not going are these; potential injury where the team seems in pretty healthy except for Harris, with the extensive travel this season, the up and down performance, etc, for me, I think the offseason player skill development programs need to begin, coaches review and evaluation of the season need to get under way, further analysis of roster along with style of play, recruitment etc are all things that could get delayed.....for what ?......a CBI participant banner?

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago Looking at 3 of the Non P5 Conferences that we all know and love........................

A10
(22-6) VCU NET 37, RPI 23
(20-8) Davidson NET 76, RPI 52. Very significant gap of 24 between NET and RPI
(19-10) Dayton NET 73 (Down from 66 after last night) RPI 75 (Down from 64 after last night)

Losses by Davidson and Dayton this week really hurt their chances.
VCU with a much better RPI of 23 vs NET of 37. The 37 puts VCU on the bubble if they lose the A10 Championship.

Big East
(23-5) Marquette NET 21, RPI 14, Nationally Ranked #10
(21-8) Villanova NET 27, RPI 18
(15-13) Butler NET 55, RPI 74
(15-13) Creighton NET 56, RPI 70
(20-9) St John's NET 59, RPI 44

Looks at this time like only 2 Big East Teams to the dance, how the mightly have fallen from 6-7 Bids and arguing for more in years past
Butler and Creighton cannot get in the NCAA with NETs in the mid 50's
St John's should be livid that their RPI is 44 but NET is 59. 44 has a fighting chance, no chance with 59

AAC
(27-1) Houston NET 4, RPI 4, Nationally Ranked #8
(24-4) Cincinnati NET 22, RPI 15, Nationally Ranked #23
(21-6) UCF NET 30, RPI 29
(18-11) Memphis NET 53, RPI 58
(20-8) Temple NET 56, RPI 31

2 Huge games today with:
UCF @ Houston
Memphis @ Cincinnati

Memphis has won 5 of last 6. Jeremiah has been spectacular scoring the last 5 games with 31,2.5,43,37 and 30 points.
Temple will be livid if they do not get in the Tournament since their NET is 56 but their RPI is only 31 - a huge gap.
Memphis had a huge win vs Temple Tuesday night

Ramster less than a week ago you had the A10 with three teams in. At that time 2 of them had NETs of 67 and 69. But now Butler and Creighton can't get in with NETs in the mid 50s? Perhaps they can't, but you are not at all consistent.

Rhody15 · Unread post by **Rhody15** » 5 years ago

Our last CBI appearance gave us Rhody’s one triple double in school history, with Delroy getting that at home in a win against Miami Ohio.

If I remember correctly there could not have been 3K in attendance that game.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

RhodyRam86 wrote: ↑5 years ago
ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago Looking at 3 of the Non P5 Conferences that we all know and love........................

A10
(22-6) VCU NET 37, RPI 23
(20-8) Davidson NET 76, RPI 52. Very significant gap of 24 between NET and RPI
(19-10) Dayton NET 73 (Down from 66 after last night) RPI 75 (Down from 64 after last night)

Losses by Davidson and Dayton this week really hurt their chances.
VCU with a much better RPI of 23 vs NET of 37. The 37 puts VCU on the bubble if they lose the A10 Championship.

Big East
(23-5) Marquette NET 21, RPI 14, Nationally Ranked #10
(21-8) Villanova NET 27, RPI 18
(15-13) Butler NET 55, RPI 74
(15-13) Creighton NET 56, RPI 70
(20-9) St John's NET 59, RPI 44

Looks at this time like only 2 Big East Teams to the dance, how the mightly have fallen from 6-7 Bids and arguing for more in years past
Butler and Creighton cannot get in the NCAA with NETs in the mid 50's
St John's should be livid that their RPI is 44 but NET is 59. 44 has a fighting chance, no chance with 59

AAC
(27-1) Houston NET 4, RPI 4, Nationally Ranked #8
(24-4) Cincinnati NET 22, RPI 15, Nationally Ranked #23
(21-6) UCF NET 30, RPI 29
(18-11) Memphis NET 53, RPI 58
(20-8) Temple NET 56, RPI 31

2 Huge games today with:
UCF @ Houston
Memphis @ Cincinnati

Memphis has won 5 of last 6. Jeremiah has been spectacular scoring the last 5 games with 31,2.5,43,37 and 30 points.
Temple will be livid if they do not get in the Tournament since their NET is 56 but their RPI is only 31 - a huge gap.
Memphis had a huge win vs Temple Tuesday night

Ramster less than a week ago you had the A10 with three teams in. At that time 2 of them had NETs of 67 and 69. But now Butler and Creighton can't get in with NETs in the mid 50s? Perhaps they can't, but you are not at all consistent.

What I said was the A10 would not have ONLY 1 Team in the NCAA Tournament. That means 2 or more. Show me where I said 3 guaranteed
Many posters been saying since November that the A10 stinks this year and it is only a 1 Bid league. That has been consistently said and I have consistently disagreed that the A10 will be only a 1 Bid league.
Still lots of games to go

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 5 years ago

ok..."2 or more". I can see where you get 2, but not sure where you were getting the "or more". The "or more" would have meant one of those teams with a 67 or 69 NET would get an at large. But here you say that BE team's with mid 50s NETs can't get in. Can't have it both ways.

Point is moot now. After the last couple of nights there is no way the A10 is getting "or more".

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

If you go back about to last Weekend I showed the 4-5 remaining games for the top 7 teams in the A10
The top 3 being Dayton VCU and Davidson has zero games between them - all games against other A10 teams. All 3 teams could have conceivably won all remaining games prior to the A10 Tournament.
Davidson then most to LaSalle and Dayton to URI this week hurting both their chances.

If Davidson, VCU and Dayton were to win out As they were all playing very well then you would have 3 teams with ever improving NETs and RPIs and Conference records strong too

Very different to the many who said pre conference that the conference stunk and all teams would beat up on one another.
Davidson, VCU and Dayton have disproved that.

Now come along with a St Bonaventure with their two outstanding all Freshman team shoe ins and if some team like the Bonnie’s get hot and win the Conference Tournament then anything could happen.

I still disagree that it’s a given the A10 gets 1 bid

RJ has done a recent analysis that it’s only a 10 percent chance the A10 gets more than 1 team

I think differently

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 5 years ago

I think we should accept a bid if we continue our good play.
If it's going to benefit the team in the long run, pay the 50 grand.

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago If you go back about to last Weekend I showed the 4-5 remaining games for the top 7 teams in the A10
The top 3 being Dayton VCU and Davidson has zero games between them - all games against other A10 teams. All 3 teams could have conceivably won all remaining games prior to the A10 Tournament.
Davidson then most to LaSalle and Dayton to URI this week hurting both their chances.

If Davidson, VCU and Dayton were to win out As they were all playing very well then you would have 3 teams with ever improving NETs and RPIs and Conference records strong too

Very different to the many who said pre conference that the conference stunk and all teams would beat up on one another.
Davidson, VCU and Dayton have disproved that.

Now come along with a St Bonaventure with their two outstanding all Freshman team shoe ins and if some team like the Bonnie’s get hot and win the Conference Tournament then anything could happen.

I still disagree that it’s a given the A10 gets 1 bid

RJ has done a recent analysis that it’s only a 10 percent chance the A10 gets more than 1 team

I think differently

you are still inconsistent. so now you want to say that had Davidson and Dayton won out against sub 140 NET teams, they're NET would have improved and made them at large worthy. yet you had Butler and Creighton out when they had NETs in the mid 50s. Could Butler conceivably beat Villanova today? Could Creighton conceivably beat Marquette tomorrow? And what if they both did? I think those wins would trump anything any team in the A10 could do.

Conferences set themselves up for at large bids by what they do in the non conference schedule. When Davidson and Dayton beat up on teams that couldn't win outside of conference, what have they proven? They've proven that they are playing really well against teams that couldn't beat any good teams.

VCU is the only team with an at large chance. They win the A10 tourney and they will be the only team from the conference dancing. Book it!

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

RhodyRam86 wrote: ↑5 years ago
ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago If you go back about to last Weekend I showed the 4-5 remaining games for the top 7 teams in the A10
The top 3 being Dayton VCU and Davidson has zero games between them - all games against other A10 teams. All 3 teams could have conceivably won all remaining games prior to the A10 Tournament.
Davidson then most to LaSalle and Dayton to URI this week hurting both their chances.

If Davidson, VCU and Dayton were to win out As they were all playing very well then you would have 3 teams with ever improving NETs and RPIs and Conference records strong too

Very different to the many who said pre conference that the conference stunk and all teams would beat up on one another.
Davidson, VCU and Dayton have disproved that.

Now come along with a St Bonaventure with their two outstanding all Freshman team shoe ins and if some team like the Bonnie’s get hot and win the Conference Tournament then anything could happen.

I still disagree that it’s a given the A10 gets 1 bid

RJ has done a recent analysis that it’s only a 10 percent chance the A10 gets more than 1 team

I think differently
you are still inconsistent. so now you want to say that had Davidson and Dayton won out against sub 140 NET teams, they're NET would have improved and made them at large worthy. yet you had Butler and Creighton out when they had NETs in the mid 50s. Could Butler conceivably beat Villanova today? Could Creighton conceivably beat Marquette tomorrow? And what if they both did? I think those wins would trump anything any team in the A10 could do.

Conferences set themselves up for at large bids by what they do in the non conference schedule. When Davidson and Dayton beat up on teams that couldn't win outside of conference, what have they proven? They've proven that they are playing really well against teams that couldn't beat any good teams.

VCU is the only team with an at large chance. They win the A10 tourney and they will be the only team from the conference dancing. Book it!

Here you go 86,
I removed all of my comments on the original thread that I started. Only the data. I have said the A10 will have more than 1 team. Obviously that means VCU will get upset in the A10 Tournament. I believe that will happen and more than 1 team from the A10 will go.

Looking at 3 of the Non P5 Conferences
A10
(22-6) VCU NET 37, RPI 23
(20-8) Davidson NET 76, RPI 52. Very significant gap of 24 between NET and RPI
(19-10) Dayton NET 73 (Down from 66 after last night) RPI 75 (Down from 64 after last night)

Big East
(23-5) Marquette NET 21, RPI 14, Nationally Ranked #10
(21-8) Villanova NET 27, RPI 18
(15-13) Butler NET 55, RPI 74
(15-13) Creighton NET 56, RPI 70
(20-9) St John's NET 59, RPI 44

AAC
(27-1) Houston NET 4, RPI 4, Nationally Ranked #8
(24-4) Cincinnati NET 22, RPI 15, Nationally Ranked #23
(21-6) UCF NET 30, RPI 29
(18-11) Memphis NET 53, RPI 58
(20-8) Temple NET 56, RPI 31

2 games today with:
UCF @ Houston
Memphis @ Cincinnati

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 5 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑5 years ago Would you guys think it would be a good idea for us to accept a bid to the CBI?

I don't think we'll be invited, but if we are, this would be the type of year to accept. It gives you extra practice time, it gives the freshmen experience in a win or go home tournament and because they use experimental rules like the NIT it can give you a leg up if any of those rules are adopted. This isn't a situation like the old days where it was mostly used to say we got to 20 wins, it would be part of the maturation process for the younger players

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 5 years ago

Don’t sleep on the Xavier Musketeers winners of 5 in a row

PeterRamTime · Unread post by **PeterRamTime** » 5 years ago

I guess theres no way out of the 8 or 9 seed in the A-10 tournament.

Would love to avoid having to play VCU...

Section104 · Unread post by **Section104** » 5 years ago

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑5 years ago I guess theres no way out of the 8 or 9 seed in the A-10 tournament.

Would love to avoid having to play VCU...

Yes, but with our depth compared to theirs I’d rather get them early. You’ll likely have to get past them regardless and game #4 vs their game #3 when they go 12 deep isn’t a recipe for success.

RhodyRam86 · Unread post by **RhodyRam86** » 5 years ago

fair enough ramster. you probably have a better chance of being right on VCU than being wrong. they aren't a dominant team so there is a decent chance they will slip in one of the 3 games in Brooklyn. I think they need to win 2 more games to be an absolute lock. 1 more and things will be a little uncomfortable on selection sunday. this is after today's win. so they have 2 more regular season games to go.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

Here's Rhody's fantasy path to the A10 tourney title:

Finish 8th or 9th...win Thursday...then get VCU [top seed] and win Friday....then get Bonnies [4 seed] and win Saturday...and then get either Davidson or Dayton [2 and 3 seeds] in the final...and win.

Simple as that. LOL

JimSidd · Unread post by **JimSidd** » 5 years ago

In my opinion, Rhody would be better off facing VCU than Davidson. VCU likes to speed you up and as we saw in the first half last night, Rhody is better in an up and down scenario rather than half court sets. I wouldn’t relish watching the Rams have to close out on multiple Davidson three point shooters again. Of course, all this is moot if they lose the first round matchup. Rhody has been so inconsistent all season, who knows what will happen in that first game, regardless of the opponent.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

7th thru 11th is still up in the air...although St. Louis is likely to be the 7 seed.

We should end up 8th or 9th as long as we win one more game......win both and we'll be 8th.

I think our likely Thursday opponent will be LaSalle.

The Dude · Unread post by **The Dude** » 5 years ago

I think the A10 will still at least have 2 bids this year (same as what I thought at the beginning of the season). In my opinion, I think VCU will get in, but won't win the A10 tournament, which could lead to two bids for the A10.
I have to admit that I didn't think they had a chance at beating Dayton. Good to see they were able to win. Fatts seems to be getting out of his slump a bit, which I think is helping. These guys are a real wild card going into the tournament "if" they can continue to win. No idea what to think of the team at this point. Just going to enjoy the ride. They're young & they're learning...yada, yada, yada...

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

2 great games in the AAC Saturday
USF Ranked 30 NET upset 4 NET, 8 AP poll Houston on Houston’s home court.
Cincinnati held on against an ever improving Penny Hardaway Memphis squad

St John’s plays at DePaul today as a 1.5 point favorite. St. John’s lost to both DePaul and Xavier on their own home court recently and now must play DePaul and Xavier on the road as they close out conference play. No easy task.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

St Bonaventure @ Davidson will be an interesting game. Bonnie’s, as seems like normal every year, are getting hotter when it counts with 5 consecutive A10 wins.

Xavier is hot with 5 straight BE wins. X hosts St John’s in a big game Next Saturday.

UCH21377 · Unread post by **UCH21377** » 5 years ago

UCF probably in the tourney now. Utah State also? Ramster I also think VCU is only A10 with at-large shot. AS for URI, I would rather play anyone other than Davidson; they have our number. But we're getting way ahead of ourselves worrying about the A10 tourney. Let's play another couple good games first and we'll go from there.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

That's correct, would rather have the 8th or 9th seed....that way avoid Dayton or Davidson until the final. Most likely anyway.

Agree though with getting ahead of ourselves.....we need to win Tuesday night.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago St Bonaventure @ Davidson will be an interesting game. Bonnie’s, as seems like normal every year, are getting hotter when it counts with 5 consecutive A10 wins.

Xavier is hot with 5 straight BE wins. X hosts St John’s in a big game Next Saturday.

St Bonaventure has been coming on but a lot of that is also due to their schedule. Their last five games were GMU, LaSalle, @Fordham, Duquesne, and @GW. They have not yet beaten any of the top tier teams VCU/Davidson/Dayton and they have greatly benefited from having weaker H&H partners (Fordham/SJU/Duq/GMU/Dav*). Unlike URI, they have however beaten all the bad teams (SBU is 6-0 vs current bottom 4 teams while URI is 1-2).

*yet to play a 2nd time

Point of reference URI H&H Partners - VCU/Dayton/Dav/SLU/UMass

rhodylaw · Unread post by **rhodylaw** » 5 years ago

JimSidd wrote: ↑5 years ago In my opinion, Rhody would be better off facing VCU than Davidson. VCU likes to speed you up and as we saw in the first half last night, Rhody is better in an up and down scenario rather than half court sets. I wouldn’t relish watching the Rams have to close out on multiple Davidson three point shooters again. Of course, all this is moot if they lose the first round matchup. Rhody has been so inconsistent all season, who knows what will happen in that first game, regardless of the opponent.

None of the top teams are great matchups - but I agree give me VCU over Davidson all day. I have no faith in our ability to beat a really good shooting team. A physical, fast paced game we have a shot.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster, I think you are too analytical for your own good. It's one thing to draw conclusions on players from their stats, but the NCAA Tournament selection committee hasn't and won't ever be numerically based. Numbers may have a small impact, but you can't just make a sweeping declaration like you did about the Big East "Looks at this time like only 2 Big East Teams to the dance," because at this time, that is a pretty bad take. St. John's is in 99 out of 100 brackets on Bracket Matrix, and has an average seeding of a 9 seed. On BM, Seton Hall as the last team in and Butler as one of the first four out. It's very unlikely that the Big East only gets 2 teams in. Compared to other years? A low output, a reloading year if you will. But still probably 3, if not 4 bids. Not 2.

But you do it to your own conference as well, so I know it's not necessarily bias. You claim, "The 37 puts VCU on the bubble if they lose the A10 Championship." Right now VCU is the top 10 seed on Bracket Matrix, in 100 out of 100 brackets. If VCU goes undefeated until the A10T, I'd bet they are in the 8-9 range. Even in a loss, I think they are probably a 10 seed, comfortably in the tournament. I know the word "bubble" is somewhat open-ended, but to me the bubble is a team that has a possibility of making/missing the tournament. At this point, I think it would be shocking to see VCU miss the tournament with only one additional loss.

The only caveat I would add is that we don't know how the committee will interpret the NET, but I think at right now we can only follow the people who have done this and are connected to people who know things.

St John's loses 92-83 to a DePaul team today that had lost 4 straight games up to today. Max Strus with 43 points for the Blue Demons. St John's has now lost both games to last place DePaul. Now they have to play Xavier (8-8) at Xavier on March 9. Xavier has won 5 straight and has a game scheduled at Butler March 5. If John's loses as expected at Xavier they will be 8-10 in the BE. Would the NCAA take an 8-10 BE Team??

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 5 years ago

This year, yeah they probably would.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 5 years ago

Selection Sunday this year is going to be very interesting.
I expect more controversy than usual because of the NET introduction.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 5 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑5 years ago
rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑5 years ago Ramster, I think you are too analytical for your own good. It's one thing to draw conclusions on players from their stats, but the NCAA Tournament selection committee hasn't and won't ever be numerically based. Numbers may have a small impact, but you can't just make a sweeping declaration like you did about the Big East "Looks at this time like only 2 Big East Teams to the dance," because at this time, that is a pretty bad take. St. John's is in 99 out of 100 brackets on Bracket Matrix, and has an average seeding of a 9 seed. On BM, Seton Hall as the last team in and Butler as one of the first four out. It's very unlikely that the Big East only gets 2 teams in. Compared to other years? A low output, a reloading year if you will. But still probably 3, if not 4 bids. Not 2.

But you do it to your own conference as well, so I know it's not necessarily bias. You claim, "The 37 puts VCU on the bubble if they lose the A10 Championship." Right now VCU is the top 10 seed on Bracket Matrix, in 100 out of 100 brackets. If VCU goes undefeated until the A10T, I'd bet they are in the 8-9 range. Even in a loss, I think they are probably a 10 seed, comfortably in the tournament. I know the word "bubble" is somewhat open-ended, but to me the bubble is a team that has a possibility of making/missing the tournament. At this point, I think it would be shocking to see VCU miss the tournament with only one additional loss.

The only caveat I would add is that we don't know how the committee will interpret the NET, but I think at right now we can only follow the people who have done this and are connected to people who know things.
St John's loses 92-83 to a DePaul team today that had lost 4 straight games up to today. Max Strus with 43 points for the Blue Demons. St John's has now lost both games to last place DePaul. Now they have to play Xavier (8-8) at Xavier on March 9. Xavier has won 5 straight and has a game scheduled at Butler March 5. If John's loses as expected at Xavier they will be 8-10 in the BE. Would the NCAA take an 8-10 BE Team??

While the Big East is considered down because they lack the firepower at the top of the conference, the depth is something that distinguishes it from the basketball-only conferences. During conference play, St. John’s existing resume consists of 9 Q1 games, 7 Q2 games, and 2 Q3 games. In a really down year for the bubble, that SOS makes a difference. They also have 3 Big East losses that occurred without one of Heron or Ponds, their two best players.

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 5 years ago

Creighton now with an at-large shot too after beating Marquette.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 5 years ago

St. Johns is rapidly falling closer to the bubble. Their seed, thought to be about a 9 just a little while ago, could end up close to the cut line at about an 11.

The BE will likely end up with more teams in the NIT than NCAA.

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