URI/Sagarin

[rjsuperfly66]

Last week, URI ranked a 40.19 in the Sagarin system. This week they rank 43.93.
If you look at the Sagarin anticipated spreads, below shows spreads before Albany and spreads after Albany going forward (per Sagarin's statistics).

@ UCONN: +17/+9
@ Harvard: +7/+3.5
Brown: -14.5/-18.5
Maine: +12/+9
@ Stony Brook: +11/+9
William & Mary: -1/-4.5
@ Elon: +12.5/+16
@ James Madison: +30/+24.5
New Hampshire: +7.5/+0.5

[RhowdyRam02]

I'm surprised we're an underdog against Harvard

[rjsuperfly66]

Harvard hasn't played yet so they are still pretty much a random projection.

[TruePoint]

I wonder if sagarin is taking into account Elon’s added motivation from their flag flying upside down at Meade in their projection

[rjsuperfly66]

I wonder if sagarin is taking into account Elon’s added motivation from their flag flying upside down at Meade in their projection

2 reasons for the jump:
1) Elon had a strong win over Furman. Furman had losses of 15 points to now #25 Michigan St and 41 to #2 Clemson, and Elon just beat them by 38.
2) USF just had a nice win against Georgia Tech that jumped them up the rankings. Elon had lost by 20 to USF.

[TruePoint]

Sure. I was just making a joke about the flag, though.

[bigappleram]

Rhody Rams football ranked #25 on latest poll. What about soccer??

[rjsuperfly66]

Last week, URI ranked a 43.93 in the Sagarin system. This week they rank 44.09
These are the before and after spreads:

@ Harvard: +3.5/+7
Brown: -18.5/-20
Maine: +9/+9.5
@ Stony Brook: +9/+10
William & Mary: -4.5/-4
@ Elon: +16/+16
@ James Madison: +24.5/+26.5
New Hampshire: +0.5/+1

[rjsuperfly66]

Last week, URI ranked a 44.09 in the Sagarin system. This week they rank 44.19.
These are the before and after spreads:

@ Harvard: +7/+6
Brown: -20/-20.5
Maine: +9.5/+7.5
@ Stony Brook: +10/+13
William & Mary: -4/-8.5
@ Elon: +16/+15
@ James Madison: +26.5/+30
New Hampshire: +1/+1

[Hal Kopp]

Wow-Rhody +6 or 7 Vs. Harvard.
I will take it.
Over also.

[rjsuperfly66]

Last week, URI ranked a 44.19 in the Sagarin system. This week they rank 46.19
These are the before and after spreads after last weeks action:

Brown: -20.5/-19
Maine: +7.5/+2
@ Stony Brook: +13/+10.5
William & Mary: -8.5/-12
@ Elon: +15/+15.5
@ James Madison: +30/+31
New Hampshire: +1/-2.5

And in a special feature, here are my Top 4 in the College Football playoff if it were to start today (based off of resume to date):

1. LSU
2. Ohio St.
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
----------------------
5. Alabama
6. Oklahoma
7. Clemson
8. Auburn

[Hal Kopp]

Wow-beat Harvard as underdog at home and rating goes down.

[rjsuperfly66]

Wow-beat Harvard as underdog at home and rating goes down.

In Sagarin, you want the rating to increase because he uses his metric to create an artificial spread. So for instance, Alabama has a rating of 102.95 versus URI's rating of 46.19. That means that if URI played at Alabama, they would be roughly a 57 point underdog on a neutral field (flip 3 points for home field). Conversely, UCONN has a current rating of 47.66. That would make UCONN a ~1.5 point favorite on a neutral field (flip 3 points for home field).

[Hal Kopp]

OK,i get it-thanks!

[rjsuperfly66]

Last week, URI ranked a 46.19 in the Sagarin system. This week they rank 50.01.
These are the before and after spreads after last weeks action:

Maine: +2/-1.5
@ Stony Brook: +10.5/+3.5
William & Mary: -12/-16.5
@ Elon: +15.5/+14.5
@ James Madison: +31/+24
New Hampshire: -2.5/-4.5

[TruePoint]

On one hand, if the Sagarin prediction model proves out, URI would finish 3-3, for a final record of 7-4. That’s not bad at all considering expectations coming into the year.

On the other hand, I can’t help but notice that URI has beaten the Sagarin prediction model each game so far, going back to the UConn game. I don’t have the info in front of me, but I’d imagine we beat the Sagarin prediction model against Delaware, and probably against Albany, too.

[RhowdyRam02]

Last week, URI ranked a 46.19 in the Sagarin system. This week they rank 50.01.
These are the before and after spreads after last weeks action:

Maine: +2/-1.5
@ Stony Brook: +10.5/+3.5
William & Mary: -12/-16.5
@ Elon: +15.5/+14.5
@ James Madison: +31/+24
New Hampshire: -2.5/-4.5

The easy part of the season is over:

vs. 21/22 Maine
at 19/20 Stony Brook
vs. William & Mary
at 5/6 Elon
at 6/8 James Madison
New Hampshire

[R.Kelly150]

I would think they need to win all three at home and upset somebody on the road (most likely stony brook) to make the playoffs.

[rjsuperfly66]

Last week, URI ranked a 50.01 in the Sagarin system. This week they rank 49.25.
These are the before and after spreads after last weeks action:

@ Stony Brook: +3.5/+7.5
William & Mary: -16.5/-15.5
@ Elon: +14.5/+13
@ James Madison: +24/+27
New Hampshire: -4.5/-7

And in return of a special feature, my college football playoff rankings:

1) Ohio St.
2) Notre Dame
3) Alabama
4) LSU
---------------------
5) Clemson
6) Florida
7) Oregon
8) Georgia
---------------------
9) Michigan
10) Texas
11) UCF
12) Oklahoma

[bigappleram]

How the hell can you rank Bama at #3? They couldn't look more dominant. Ohio State is a clear #2 and then it's a jumble of teams from 3 thru 7 or 8.

[rjsuperfly66]

How the hell can you rank Bama at #3? They couldn't look more dominant. Ohio State is a clear #2 and then it's a jumble of teams from 3 thru 7 or 8.

I rank them #3 right now because they have not played anybody. Their best win is against Texas A&M at home. Their wins are against neutral #91, home #96, at #54, home #17, home #121, at #93, at #41 (Sagarin ratings). That will change in their last 5 games as they will play at LSU, Mississppi St., Auburn, and if they get there, the SEC Championship game.

Conversely you have someone like Notre Dame who has played down to their competition at times, but I think has better wins. They've been 3 Top 50 teams, including 1 at home that is ranked in everyone's Top 10. So if I'm putting together the playoff right now, their resume to me is stronger because of who they've beaten. Their schedule is also a joke the rest of the season so their stock only stands to decrease barring other teams losses.

And then I put LSU in over Clemson again for who they've beaten. They beat Miami, a Top 25 opponent, on a neutral field. They beat Auburn, a Top 30 opponent, on their field. They beat Georgia, a Top 10 opponent, at home. Their one loss came at Florida, a Top 15 opponent, in a game they could have won.

I would compare Clemson's resume to Alabama's without the dominance -- they are 6-0, their best win is at Texas A&M (#17 Sagarin). Their other wins are against home #155, at #89, at #51, home #50, and at #79.

If wins against strong opponents are the most important metric to the committee in putting teams in the playoffs, I think as of today those are the 4 best playoff teams.

[bigappleram]

Yes, but that's akin to thinking URI was a Top 8 team at points last year bc our SOS was so strong in OOC and our RPI metrics through the roof.
If you are going to put out a human ranking the "eye test" matters too, and even against inferior competition there is Alabama and then everyone else. At least for right now.