Gm. 1: URI @ Central Michigan, 8/31 7PM, ESPN3
Posted: Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:15 pm
This is a good test for URI. Central Michigan is a solid non-P5 FBS school. In a down year last year, they still went to a bowl game and beat Oklahoma State on the road.
Their QB last season was Cooper Rush, the UDFA preseason sensation for the Cowboys this summer. Rush was a four year starter for Central Michigan. Their new QB is Shane Morris, a 5th year senior transfer who went to Michigan as a top-10 QB recruit in the country out of HS. Unfortunately, his career at Michigan is probably most notable for almost getting killed during a game against Minnesota when Michigan coach Fred Flintstone Brady Hoke left him in the game to suffer injuries to his leg and brain. (The game is notable because Ed Cunningham, the ESPN announcer that called it, has cited it in explaining his decision to leave broadcasting over concerns about player safety. The video is available on youtube, but it is pretty tough to watch if you care at all about the well being of the kids playing these sports.)
While Michigan's fortunes have surged after Jim Harbaugh replaced Hoke in Ann Arbor, the opposite was true for Morris. He only threw 5 passes over the last two seasons under Harbaugh. During his first two seasons under Hoke, Morris threw 87 passes - which included 5 INTs and zero TDs. While Morris has serious pedigree, he has not accomplished much at the collegiate level. We may not know how good of a test this is for our defense for another month or two, but suffice it to say he at least has more talent than many of the QBs we will face during the rest of the season.
CMU's leading rusher from last year, Devon Spalding, is back. Spalding ran for nearly 800 yards at a 5.5 YPC clip and scored 6 TDs. Goal line work was dominated last year by the since-departed (graduated, not dead) Jahray Hayes, who ran it in 9 times but only managed to get 3.4 YPC on his team-leading 144 carries. Spalding and Hayes split the carries in 2016. If another back emerges to share the load with Spalding this year, it would likely be Soph Jonathon Ward who got 5.6 YPC on 36 totes as a freshman last year.
Three of CMU's four leading receivers from 2016 return, including leading receiver Corey Willis, who caught 71 balls for almost 1100 yards and 9 scores last season. Mark Chapman and Brandon Childress also played a role in the passing game as receivers in 2016 and should feature prominently again this season. Also expect to see Spalding active in the pass game out of the backfield, as he caught 31 balls last year.
The CMU O-line features four redshirt seniors: LT Joe Austin, C Austin Doan, RG JP Quinn and RT Derek Edwards. The unit is rounded out by LG Steve Eipper, a redshirt Soph. Perhaps this line will be improved because of the experience it features, and certainly it will be a test for URI's interior defense, but last year Central Michigan was one of the worst rushing teams in FBS on a YPG basis, finishing 121st out of 128 teams, although they relied very heavily on Rush through the air: they also finished 122nd in rushing attempts on a per game basis.
On defense, CMU plays in a base 4-3 defense that should start 8 upper classmen and 3 sophs. In 2016, CMU gave up 32.6 points per game, 89th in FBS. They had as much trouble against the run as the pass, finishing 86th in FBS against both methods of attack. There will be opportunities for URI to make some plays against CMU if we can get anything approaching quality QB play, but as we know that is far from a given for this program.
Overall, CMU will feature better athletes than URI at just about every position. That comes with the territory when you are a struggling FCS program and you are going up against a respectable FBS opponent. However, CMU is not Alabama or Ohio State. They have weaknesses and if URI is improved at all you could see flashes of that against a team like this. Over 60 minutes, I expect CMU to wear URI down and win pretty easily, but I'll be watching for any signs of encouragement - would particularly like to see some fight from our linemen on both sides of the ball and something resembling competent QB play.
I am hopeful for a cover of the 31 point spread, although I wouldn't bet my house. If we are going to be any good at all, I would think we would see at least a couple scoring drives on offense and some ability not to make Shane Morris look like the second coming of Andrew Luck. Therefore my prediction for this game is CMU 48 - URI 20.
Their QB last season was Cooper Rush, the UDFA preseason sensation for the Cowboys this summer. Rush was a four year starter for Central Michigan. Their new QB is Shane Morris, a 5th year senior transfer who went to Michigan as a top-10 QB recruit in the country out of HS. Unfortunately, his career at Michigan is probably most notable for almost getting killed during a game against Minnesota when Michigan coach Fred Flintstone Brady Hoke left him in the game to suffer injuries to his leg and brain. (The game is notable because Ed Cunningham, the ESPN announcer that called it, has cited it in explaining his decision to leave broadcasting over concerns about player safety. The video is available on youtube, but it is pretty tough to watch if you care at all about the well being of the kids playing these sports.)
While Michigan's fortunes have surged after Jim Harbaugh replaced Hoke in Ann Arbor, the opposite was true for Morris. He only threw 5 passes over the last two seasons under Harbaugh. During his first two seasons under Hoke, Morris threw 87 passes - which included 5 INTs and zero TDs. While Morris has serious pedigree, he has not accomplished much at the collegiate level. We may not know how good of a test this is for our defense for another month or two, but suffice it to say he at least has more talent than many of the QBs we will face during the rest of the season.
CMU's leading rusher from last year, Devon Spalding, is back. Spalding ran for nearly 800 yards at a 5.5 YPC clip and scored 6 TDs. Goal line work was dominated last year by the since-departed (graduated, not dead) Jahray Hayes, who ran it in 9 times but only managed to get 3.4 YPC on his team-leading 144 carries. Spalding and Hayes split the carries in 2016. If another back emerges to share the load with Spalding this year, it would likely be Soph Jonathon Ward who got 5.6 YPC on 36 totes as a freshman last year.
Three of CMU's four leading receivers from 2016 return, including leading receiver Corey Willis, who caught 71 balls for almost 1100 yards and 9 scores last season. Mark Chapman and Brandon Childress also played a role in the passing game as receivers in 2016 and should feature prominently again this season. Also expect to see Spalding active in the pass game out of the backfield, as he caught 31 balls last year.
The CMU O-line features four redshirt seniors: LT Joe Austin, C Austin Doan, RG JP Quinn and RT Derek Edwards. The unit is rounded out by LG Steve Eipper, a redshirt Soph. Perhaps this line will be improved because of the experience it features, and certainly it will be a test for URI's interior defense, but last year Central Michigan was one of the worst rushing teams in FBS on a YPG basis, finishing 121st out of 128 teams, although they relied very heavily on Rush through the air: they also finished 122nd in rushing attempts on a per game basis.
On defense, CMU plays in a base 4-3 defense that should start 8 upper classmen and 3 sophs. In 2016, CMU gave up 32.6 points per game, 89th in FBS. They had as much trouble against the run as the pass, finishing 86th in FBS against both methods of attack. There will be opportunities for URI to make some plays against CMU if we can get anything approaching quality QB play, but as we know that is far from a given for this program.
Overall, CMU will feature better athletes than URI at just about every position. That comes with the territory when you are a struggling FCS program and you are going up against a respectable FBS opponent. However, CMU is not Alabama or Ohio State. They have weaknesses and if URI is improved at all you could see flashes of that against a team like this. Over 60 minutes, I expect CMU to wear URI down and win pretty easily, but I'll be watching for any signs of encouragement - would particularly like to see some fight from our linemen on both sides of the ball and something resembling competent QB play.
I am hopeful for a cover of the 31 point spread, although I wouldn't bet my house. If we are going to be any good at all, I would think we would see at least a couple scoring drives on offense and some ability not to make Shane Morris look like the second coming of Andrew Luck. Therefore my prediction for this game is CMU 48 - URI 20.
