KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

TruePoint wrote:

rjsuperfly66 wrote:If they don't win tonight, their only other chance at a marquee conference win will be in the A10T Final, assuming they play URI. If for some reason URI got upset, they would have to win the tournament.

I feel like you're essentially saying that if they don't win tonight, they have to win the A10 tournament regardless, right? I know that you're not explicitly saying that, but that is kind of what it means. If they need a marquee win and their only two chances are tonight and in the A10 finals, and they don't win tonight, they basically have no shot at an at large bid. I'm not sure I disagree with you, just want to flush out the logic on that a bit - if they get to the A10 finals they'd definitely hope that URI had been upset and forego the shot at the marquee win, right? Wouldn't help them at that point.

You are correct, and I completely butchered that ... I had two uniquely separate thoughts that came out as keyboard vomit.
If St. Bonaventure loses to URI 1 or 2x, that is a "great" loss -- It's not the type of loss that should cause you to lose ground in your pursuit of a birth, although other teams could obviously pass you with "good" or "great" wins.
But if St. Bonaventure gets the 2 or 3 seed without a URI win, I don't think that by itself is enough to get them in.
If they go to the A10T against VCU or Richmond (potential 4 or 5 seed respectively), while it's possible it would be a must-win regardless of opponent, I don't think that is a game they could afford to lose if they happened to find themselves on the plus side of the bubble pre-game.
That type of loss would likely drop them a few spots, and likely out of the tournament picture.
I don't see really anyway they will be comfortably in the tournament picture pre-A10T without winning out the rest of the regular season (which begins tonight).

Lunardi has the Bonnies as the last team in right now

Seawrightspostgame wrote:Lunardi has the Bonnies as the last team in right now

Not sure what changed. Last night during the WSU/Temple game he kept saying they were out as of then.

Time for my weekly reminder that Lunardi is very bad at his job.

Would much rather look at Bracket matrix rather than that stooge Joe Lynardi

In the bracket matrix world - #1 rated bracketville has us as a 5 seed in the Midwest bracket, playing Loyola for the right to play West Virginia/Belmont.

Sign me up.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

I think Bonnies will be on the bubble if their only loses are tonight and in A10 Championship vs Rhody. That would put them at 25-8 (13-5 regular A10). They could fall on either side (in or out) depending on what other bubble teams due and how many teams win the top conference tournaments that would not have otherwise got in.

3 seed looks like it's out of reach. 4 seed sounds like a stretch... we'd need other teams to pick up some bad losses to taint their resumes

IMO if we win out from here we're a 5... with one more loss we're a 6 or 7. No complaints here.

URI'21 wrote:3 seed looks like it's out of reach. 4 seed sounds like a stretch... we'd need other teams to pick up some bad losses to taint their resumes

IMO if we win out from here we're a 5... with one more loss we're a 6 or 7. No complaints here.

I'm holding out hope that if we can run the table and beat the Bonnies down in DC that we could still have a shot at a 4 seed. Probably a pipe dream, but this season has been so crazy with top teams losing. Our RPI is still at 9 with ZERO BAD LOSSES.

I know some here hate this, but PC creeping back into the top 30 for RPI would be a huge resume boost.

Question: What is the difference between a 4 or 5 seed if we feel that Rhody is a Sweet 16 team?
Answer: The color uniform Rhody wears in the second round.

Here's the question. If both URI and SBU win the rest of their games up until meeting each other in the A10 final, so that:

URI is 27-4 and SBU is 26-6 going into the final, are both in no matter what? I have to think that at that point, SBU is in, not just last four in, but in solidly, like a 10 seed. URI would obviously be a lock and would obviously need the win for a better seed.

Now, what happens if SBU wins out the regular season, but doesn't make the A10 final? They are 24-6 going into the A10...how many wins do they need to be safe?

I think Bona is ok now just can't have any bad losses

Rhody83 wrote:Question: What is the difference between a 4 or 5 seed if we feel that Rhody is a Sweet 16 team?
Answer: The color uniform Rhody wears in the second round.

This is a fact. And I’m not sure why more people don’t realize it. Just like you’re better off being an 11 seed than a 7,8,9 or 10.

Seeding is so arbitrary and you can have a good matchup as a 10 seed just as easily as you can have a terrible matchup as a 4.

Rhody83 wrote:Question: What is the difference between a 4 or 5 seed if we feel that Rhody is a Sweet 16 team?
Answer: The color uniform Rhody wears in the second round.

I've read a few times on here that a top 4 seed gives you an inside track to preferential seeding and would potentially set us up with a sweet 16 game in Boston if we ever got that far.

Micheal_Phelps_22 wrote:

Rhody83 wrote:Question: What is the difference between a 4 or 5 seed if we feel that Rhody is a Sweet 16 team?
Answer: The color uniform Rhody wears in the second round.

I've read a few times on here that a top 4 seed gives you an inside track to preferential seeding and would potentially set us up with a sweet 16 game in Boston if we ever got that far.

In theory yeah but it’s farrrr from guaranteed and you likely have almost the same odds being a lower than 4 seed

In my opinion there are several teams, actually quite a few, that will likely be seeding ahead of URI in the tourney that I would love to play. Most teams will not prepare very well for URI. You see it every year.

steviep123 wrote:Here's the question. If both URI and SBU win the rest of their games up until meeting each other in the A10 final, so that:

URI is 27-4 and SBU is 26-6 going into the final, are both in no matter what? I have to think that at that point, SBU is in, not just last four in, but in solidly, like a 10 seed. URI would obviously be a lock and would obviously need the win for a better seed.

Now, what happens if SBU wins out the regular season, but doesn't make the A10 final? They are 24-6 going into the A10...how many wins do they need to be safe?

The problem with St. Bonaventure is that most of these wins are meaningless -- they aren't going to get much credit for pulverizing a GW or a LaSalle. My guess is that after last night, they jump into a play-in game in most brackets, but they are one "bad" loss away from being right back out of it. If they win up to an A10T Championship game against URI and lose, my guess is that they would potentially be a coin flip in either direction (but l would think likely positive) depending on what is going on around them. The reality is they are competing mostly with P5 teams for the last few births -- Those teams will have more chances are marquee wins but also higher likelihood of losing games.

As for URI, a 4 or 5 seed really doesn't matter, no matter the seed or seed line ranking, playing in San Diego or Boise anyway (more than likely). The only thing different is a potentially slightly easier 1st round matchup against a 13 seed versus a 12. No other difference.

I think 6 is best for us at this point. And the end of the day it means nothing unless they hit 8 or 9

rjsuperfly66 wrote:

steviep123 wrote:Here's the question. If both URI and SBU win the rest of their games up until meeting each other in the A10 final, so that:

URI is 27-4 and SBU is 26-6 going into the final, are both in no matter what? I have to think that at that point, SBU is in, not just last four in, but in solidly, like a 10 seed. URI would obviously be a lock and would obviously need the win for a better seed.

Now, what happens if SBU wins out the regular season, but doesn't make the A10 final? They are 24-6 going into the A10...how many wins do they need to be safe?

The problem with St. Bonaventure is that most of these wins are meaningless -- they aren't going to get much credit for pulverizing a GW or a LaSalle. My guess is that after last night, they jump into a play-in game in most brackets, but they are one "bad" loss away from being right back out of it. If they win up to an A10T Championship game against URI and lose, my guess is that they would potentially be a coin flip in either direction (but l would think likely positive) depending on what is going on around them. The reality is they are competing mostly with P5 teams for the last few births -- Those teams will have more chances are marquee wins but also higher likelihood of losing games.

As for URI, a 4 or 5 seed really doesn't matter, no matter the seed or seed line ranking, playing in San Diego or Boise anyway (more than likely). The only thing different is a potentially slightly easier 1st round matchup against a 13 seed versus a 12. No other difference.

I think St Bonaventure is in pretty decent shape . Four and two in quadrent 1 games and good non conference wins against Syracuse , Buffalo and Vermont.

UCH21377 wrote:I think 6 is best for us at this point. And the end of the day it means nothing unless they hit 8 or 9

You can’t be serious. We’re a 5-6 right now, if URI wins out and finished 17-1 in conference, a four seed is achievable.

Maybe CT but the P6 get all the love in the seedlings and the committee has now found another way to get those teams seeded higher. The quadrant system will be used to discredit the non-power conference teams

UCH21377 wrote:Maybe CT but the P6 get all the love in the seedlings and the committee has now found another way to get those teams seeded higher. The quadrant system will be used to discredit the non-power conference teams

sad but true.

UCH21377 wrote:Maybe CT but the P6 get all the love in the seedlings and the committee has now found another way to get those teams seeded higher. The quadrant system will be used to discredit the non-power conference teams

It’s a conspiracy:). It didn’t exist as long as Rhody beat the Bonnies. Once we lost the conspiracy went into action.

PCFriars wrote:

Rhody83 wrote:Question: What is the difference between a 4 or 5 seed if we feel that Rhody is a Sweet 16 team?
Answer: The color uniform Rhody wears in the second round.

This is a fact. And I’m not sure why more people don’t realize it. Just like you’re better off being an 11 seed than a 7,8,9 or 10.

Seeding is so arbitrary and you can have a good matchup as a 10 seed just as easily as you can have a terrible matchup as a 4.

I disagree with this. I think seeding holds a considerable weight. In recent years 12 seeds have upset 5s more often than not. 13s on the other hand knock of 4s more rarely. Also - being a 6 and playing an 11 is dangerous. 11 seeds are teams on the bubble who are hyped to get into the tournament. There's also the 11s that have the momentum from winning their play in game. Not PC though they tend to lose those.

I think come selection Sunday we all will come to the consensus that we deserve a certain seed let's just say a 4 or 5 that we deserve then the committee will stick it to us and give us 1 spot lower than what conjecture is

URI'21 wrote:

PCFriars wrote:

Rhody83 wrote:Question: What is the difference between a 4 or 5 seed if we feel that Rhody is a Sweet 16 team?
Answer: The color uniform Rhody wears in the second round.

This is a fact. And I’m not sure why more people don’t realize it. Just like you’re better off being an 11 seed than a 7,8,9 or 10.

Seeding is so arbitrary and you can have a good matchup as a 10 seed just as easily as you can have a terrible matchup as a 4.

I disagree with this. I think seeding holds a considerable weight. In recent years 12 seeds have upset 5s more often than not. 13s on the other hand knock of 4s more rarely. Also - being a 6 and playing an 11 is dangerous. 11 seeds are teams on the bubble who are hyped to get into the tournament. There's also the 11s that have the momentum from winning their play in game. Not PC though they tend to loss those.

We were an 11 seed that beat a 6, both last year and in 1988 when upsetting Missouri (and then Syracuse).

steviep123 wrote:

URI'21 wrote:

PCFriars wrote:
This is a fact. And I’m not sure why more people don’t realize it. Just like you’re better off being an 11 seed than a 7,8,9 or 10.

Seeding is so arbitrary and you can have a good matchup as a 10 seed just as easily as you can have a terrible matchup as a 4.

I disagree with this. I think seeding holds a considerable weight. In recent years 12 seeds have upset 5s more often than not. 13s on the other hand knock of 4s more rarely. Also - being a 6 and playing an 11 is dangerous. 11 seeds are teams on the bubble who are hyped to get into the tournament. There's also the 11s that have the momentum from winning their play in game. Not PC though they tend to loss those.

We were an 11 seed that beat a 6, both last year and in 1988 when upsetting Missouri (and then Syracuse).

Traditionally those on the 6 seed line get there by being a “name” school but not necessarily being that much better than the at large teams on the 11 line.

Definitely. 11 seeds are tough teams

New bracketville out:

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

We're a 5 seed in Boise vs. Loyola Chicago

St. Bonaventure is second to last in and has a play in game for a 12 seed

Virginia is the overall number 1
Alabama is a 6
Providence is an 8
Nevada and Seton Hall are 9's
Charleston is a 14
UNC-Asheville is a 16

Florida Gulf Coast is in the play in for a 16

Palm's latest bracketology (updated today) has us as a 5 seed still

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... hurt-march


18. Rhode Island Rams
Record: 21-4
Last week: 16

The Rams' 16-game winning streak was snapped at St. Bonaventure on Friday, but their result-based metrics are strong enough to prevent a big fall. They still have a top-10 RPI and top-five SOS with a 6-4 record against Quadrants 1 and 2. The win over Seton Hall is fading, though.

The latest ESPN Bubble Watch was posted yesterday before the LaSalle game. In it, ESPN has listed URI under its lock category for the NCAA Tournament:

Link:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ing-pac-12
The ESPN bubble watch assigns teams to three categories - Lock, Should be In, and Work to do.

And that bubble watch was prior to the LaSalle Win.

RF1 wrote:The latest ESPN Bubble Watch was posted yesterday before the LaSalle game. In it, ESPN has listed URI under its lock category for the NCAA Tournament:

Link:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ing-pac-12

Screenshot-2018-2-21 Bubble Watch Pac-12 and Oklahoma are living dangerously.png

The ESPN bubble watch assigns teams to three categories - Lock, Should be In, and Work to do.

I know the A10 is in a down year, but in the past Bubble Watch had the A10 as a separate conference along with the P5, Big East, and a couple of others. Now it has URI and SBU lumped in with anyone not P5, Big East, and American. That bothers me.

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... hurt-march


18. Rhode Island Rams
Record: 21-4
Last week: 16

The Rams' 16-game winning streak was snapped at St. Bonaventure on Friday, but their result-based metrics are strong enough to prevent a big fall. They still have a top-10 RPI and top-five SOS with a 6-4 record against Quadrants 1 and 2. The win over Seton Hall is fading, though.

In tweeting with Koch and McNamara, they don't think the win over SH will drop out of Q1 even if the Hall doesn't win another game this year. Their RPI is currently 25 and I think they need to remain in the top 50 for the neutral site win over them to remain Q1. (Someone correct me if this is wrong).

That's because there is only 2 teams that have any chance of an at large bid.....and I think we are 10th this year as a conference, versus 7 or 8 in recent years.

We'll get our conference back on the list next season, hopefully...with 3 or 4 teams with a shot....

rambone 78 wrote:That's because there is only 2 teams that have any chance of an at large bid.....and I think we are 10th this year as a conference, versus 7 or 8 in recent years.

We'll get our conference back on the list next season, hopefully...with 3 or 4 teams with a shot....

If the SEC or PAC 12 have a bad season, they don't knock them down, and they've had a few seasons with only 2 or 3 legit teams. Why drop the A10 down? They've been a multi-bid conference almost every season going back to the late 80s despite all the changes.

steviep123 wrote:

RF1 wrote:The latest ESPN Bubble Watch was posted yesterday before the LaSalle game. In it, ESPN has listed URI under its lock category for the NCAA Tournament:

Link:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ing-pac-12

Screenshot-2018-2-21 Bubble Watch Pac-12 and Oklahoma are living dangerously.png

The ESPN bubble watch assigns teams to three categories - Lock, Should be In, and Work to do.

I know the A10 is in a down year, but in the past Bubble Watch had the A10 as a separate conference along with the P5, Big East, and a couple of others. Now it has URI and SBU lumped in with anyone not P5, Big East, and American. That bothers me.

There is now a different person doing the bubble Watch for ESPN. That may be part of the reason.

The SEC or P10 never fall out of the top 7 even in a bad year for them....the A10 on the other hand....

rambone 78 wrote:The SEC or P10 never fall out of the top 7 even in a bad year for them....the A10 on the other hand....

Still, this is the only season in 12 years where the A10 was thought to be a one bid league (which might be a 2 bid league if SBU continues). Most other years they are at least 3

Stevie, Eammon Brennan, the original ESPN Bubble Watch analyst now at The Athletic, also does not have the A10 as a standalone group, since there are only 2 teams with consideration. No big deal. Next year A10 will be back to regular levels.

Random post here, but stat junkies might appreciate it.

The opponents that have beaten us have an average RPI of 17. This is good for the second best in the nation, right behind #1 in the USA Today Coaches Poll Michigan State, whose average RPI L is 15.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/nitty-live

Great stat indeed !!

The latest from Bracketville:

http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/ ... ina-climb/

We're a 6 seed in Pittsburgh taking on the winner of the Baylor vs. Washington play in game

St. Bonaventure is a 12 seed and has the last bye

Virginia is the overall number 1 seed
Alabama and Seton Hall are 8 seeds
Providence and Nevada are 10 seeds. Providence has the third to last bye
Charleston is a 14 seed
UNC-Asheville is a 16 seed

Florida Gulf Coast is in the play in game for a 16 seed

With all the schools implicated by fbi today, we may be a 1 seed

theblueram wrote:With all the schools implicated by fbi today, we may be a 1 seed

URI might end up national champions ... In 2035 with this investigation concludes and URI stands as the only team in the Sweet 16 who doesn't have to vacate this season or others.

Programs identified in this story as being connected to this scandal:

DUKE
UNC
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan State
Louisville
Texas
Alabama
Seton Hall
Wichita State
NC State
Maryland
LSU
South Carolina
Clemson
Xavier
Utah
USC
Washington

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ncaa-rules

TruePoint wrote:Programs identified in this story as being connected to this scandal:

DUKE
UNC
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan State
Louisville
Texas
Alabama
Seton Hall
Wichita State
NC State
Maryland
LSU
South Carolina
Clemson
Xavier
Utah
USC
Washington

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ncaa-rules

that's kinda a shocker...

really though, they dont fit with the others listed. cant think of a major recruit they've landed that made you go hmmm, like Fultz at Washington

I found bracket matrix to be the most useful last year.
It is interesting that some knucklehead doesn’t have Gonzaga in his bracket.

http://bracketmatrix.com/