KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

Question was asked 1 month ago.
Now again with 6 games to go plus the A10 Tournament March 8 to March 12

Fordham Wednesday Feb 15 HOME @7:00pm
George Mason Saturday Feb 18 AWAY @ 4:00pm
LaSalle Tuesday Feb 21 AWAY @ 6:00pm
VCU Saturday Feb 25 HOME @ 2:00pm
St Joseph Wednesday Mar 1 AWAY @ 7:00pm
Davidson Saturday Mar 4 HOME @ 6:00pm

To be clear this means getting into the NCAA tournament by whatever means

Winning the A10 tournament would be getting selected - just automatically, just like in any of the other leagues that have automatic qualifiers.

Do we get selected?

Ha.

Ha.

Ha.

5-1...to the A10T finals....in.

.....for me the only path is winning the A10 Tourney.....this team has unfortunately not demonstrated they can get on a consistent level of play necessary to take the tourney.....no

At large? Not a chance. Win the A10T they get in obviously, but that is not a selection.

theblueram wrote:At large? Not a chance. Win the A10T they get in obviously, but that is not a selection.

Winning the A10 would mean that they are selected - it would be automatically selected

NO. URI does not belong in the NCAA Tournament given its record.

WE HAVE THE ABILITY TO GET ONE OF THE LAST 4 IN---5-1 IS VERY DOABLE

Our schedule down the stretch is pretty tough. Think we're looking at 20-10, a win or two in the A10 tourney won't quite be enough, sadly. I hope I'm wrong!

No. No. No. A thousand times no.

ramster wrote:

theblueram wrote:At large? Not a chance. Win the A10T they get in obviously, but that is not a selection.

Winning the A10 would mean that they are selected - it would be automatically selected

Ramster, love your enthusiasm, but you must be one of the alternative facts people. There are I believe 32 Auto bids. They are not selected. They are automatic. Then there are at large selections.. K?

theblueram wrote:

ramster wrote:

theblueram wrote:At large? Not a chance. Win the A10T they get in obviously, but that is not a selection.

Winning the A10 would mean that they are selected - it would be automatically selected

Ramster, love your enthusiasm, but you must be one of the alternative facts people. There are I believe 32 Auto bids. They are not selected. They are automatic. Then there are at large selections.. K?

Look,
I asked the same exact question a month ago. In fact, someone reworded my question a month ago (my guess is ATP) and I simply copied the same exact question now a month later.

All I really am asking is do you think URI makes it to the Dance. Simple as that. That can mean winning the conference, that could mean getting picked by the selection committee, bribing your way in, who cares - just do you think that URI will be dancing in 2017.

If you want me to reword the question let me know what you want me to say

theblueram wrote:

ramster wrote:

theblueram wrote:At large? Not a chance. Win the A10T they get in obviously, but that is not a selection.

Winning the A10 would mean that they are selected - it would be automatically selected

Ramster, love your enthusiasm, but you must be one of the alternative facts people. There are I believe 32 Auto bids. They are not selected. They are automatic. Then there are at large selections.. K?

Look,
I asked the same exact question a month ago. In fact, someone reworded my question a month ago (my guess is ATP) and I simply copied the same exact question now a month later.

All I really am asking is do you think URI makes it to the Dance. Simple as that. That can mean winning the conference, that could mean getting picked by the selection committee, bribing your way in, who cares - just do you think that URI will be dancing in 2017.

If you want me to reword the question let me know what you want me to say and I can easily change it. Trying to keep this simple but it does not appear I'm doing a very good job of it

I changed it. Hopefully it is clear.

Yep, clearly botched from the get-go...should just remove the whole thread...it's a total di-ZAS-tuh....
BTW, I voted 'yes'. They'll make it, don't care how...

If this vote ends up close....then I don't know what to tell you......it's already closer than logic would indicate.

I voted no, voted yes in the previous poll. I really thought we would beat Dayton and VCU which is obviously out of the question. I'm still not sure whether it's the players, coach or a combination of the two that is the problem but we do not look like a tournament team in my opinion. Our best game of the year was the fourth game of the season, one would think we'd see improvement and build on that win but now it looks like that win was a fluke.

Those who said yes, what makes you think we'll still make the tournament?

I don't like having to answer this

Heart yes
Mind no

Playing well...just a FT or two from beating maybe the best team in the league...win 5 of 6 and get to the A10 final...

Friday night was brutal... But I'm here to try and lure you all back in. I'll probably fail but I'm going to try anyway.

Our current RPI is 39. Let me remind you that since 2000 over 80% of teams that finished with an RPI of 31-40 made the NCAA tournament.... 80%.... It's very hard to ignore that statistic. Could we end up being one of the 20% with an RPI of 31-40 that don't make it? Of course. But those are still pretty good odds.

I realize that there is also the "eye test" and it's not just about RPI. That's where beating VCU comes in. We can't go 0-3 against VCU and Dayton. That I think we all can agree on.

Of the six remaining games the only one that scares me is @George Mason. We are going to smash Fordham on Wednesday, La Salle has been struggling, St Joe's just lost Kimble for the season, there will be NO step-back-corner-dagger-three from Gibbs against Davidson, and the Ryan Center will be absolutely rockin' against VCU. I still believe that we can afford one more road loss (see George Mason). Would I prefer to win the remaining 6? Of course.

But, I'm sticking to what I have been saying all along... Finish 13-5 in conference and win our Quarterfinal game in the A10 tourney and I believe we are on the right side of the bubble. This would give us an RPI in the low 30s and greater than an 80% chance of having our name called on Selection Sunday.

If we finish 13-5 and make it to the A10 finals I think we are a lock. We are also a lock if we finish 14-4 and win our Quarterfinal game in the A10 tourney. Both scenarios have us at a sub-30 RPI. Since 2000, 97% of teams with and RPI of 21-30 made the NCAA tournament. That's pretty close to a lock.

Have I convinced you that we can still earn an at-large bid?

josephski wrote:I voted no, voted yes in the previous poll. I really thought we would beat Dayton and VCU which is obviously out of the question. I'm still not sure whether it's the players, coach or a combination of the two that is the problem but we do not look like a tournament team in my opinion. Our best game of the year was the fourth game of the season, one would think we'd see improvement and build on that win but now it looks like that win was a fluke.

Those who said yes, what makes you think we'll still make the tournament?

I voted yes. I've been keeping track of the bubble teams and they're almost all struggling. That and even though this team will never reach the potential we thought they had preseason, I guess I think there's a chance that when Garrett is back that assuming he's right that this team can be just that little bit better.

In my opinion, URI has to win all of their remaining games and make it to the finals of their conference tournament to have "any" shot of getting into the NCAA Tournament. I just don't see it happening. I haven't seen any sign that "every" player is going to show up with their head on straight each and every game.

The Dude wrote:In my opinion, URI has to win all of their remaining games and make it to the finals of their conference tournament to have "any" shot of getting into the NCAA Tournament. I just don't see it happening. I haven't seen any sign that "every" player is going to show up with their head on straight each and every game.

Is your opinion based on any numbers or historical evidence whatsoever? Or just a gut reaction?

RoadyJay wrote:Friday night was brutal... But I'm here to try and lure you all back in. I'll probably fail but I'm going to try anyway.

Our current RPI is 39. Let me remind you that since 2000 over 80% of teams that finished with an RPI of 31-40 made the NCAA tournament.... 80%.... It's very hard to ignore that statistic. Could we end up being one of the 20% with an RPI of 31-40 that don't make it? Of course. But those are still pretty good odds.

I realize that there is also the "eye test" and it's not just about RPI. That's where beating VCU comes in. We can't go 0-3 against VCU and Dayton. That I think we all can agree on.

Of the six remaining games the only one that scares me is @George Mason. We are going to smash Fordham on Wednesday, La Salle has been struggling, St Joe's just lost Kimble for the season, there will be NO step-back-corner-dagger-three from Gibbs against Davidson, and the Ryan Center will be absolutely rockin' against VCU. I still believe that we can afford one more road loss (see George Mason). Would I prefer to win the remaining 6? Of course.

But, I'm sticking to what I have been saying all along... Finish 13-5 in conference and win our Quarterfinal game in the A10 tourney and I believe we are on the right side of the bubble. This would give us an RPI in the low 30s and greater than an 80% chance of having our name called on Selection Sunday.

If we finish 13-5 and make it to the A10 finals I think we are a lock. We are also a lock if we finish 14-4 and win our Quarterfinal game in the A10 tourney. Both scenarios have us at a sub-30 RPI. Since 2000, 97% of teams with and RPI of 21-30 made the NCAA tournament. That's pretty close to a lock.

Have I convinced you that we can still earn an at-large bid?

We have not been mathematically eliminated, but we were psychologically eliminated Friday night. I predict a 4-2 finish, and wouldn't rule out 3-3.

I wouldn't be surprised at any kind of finish really... But coaches' and players' backs are up against the wall.. I'm hoping we show some fight rather than crumble.

This team needs our support more now than ever.

I voted no hope I am wrong obviously

RoadyJay wrote:I wouldn't be surprised at any kind of finish really... But coaches' and players' backs are up against the wall.. I'm hoping we show some fight rather than crumble.

This team needs our support more now than ever.

I agree that it would be great to see fight rather than see them crumble. I will be in my seat at the Ryan, still hoping. I just know as a fan that held out against the pessimism and negativity (for years, not just this year), Friday night broke me.

D U N- done

TruePoint wrote:

RoadyJay wrote:I wouldn't be surprised at any kind of finish really... But coaches' and players' backs are up against the wall.. I'm hoping we show some fight rather than crumble.

This team needs our support more now than ever.

I agree that it would be great to see fight rather than see them crumble. I will be in my seat at the Ryan, still hoping. I just know as a fan that held out against the pessimism and negativity (for years, not just this year), Friday night broke me.

What he said.

I'm with TP on this one......this team and coach just don't have the stones.......EC's nerves at the line is very telling......

4-2 is likely imo.......yes Roady Jay there is a small window of opportunity to make it without the autobid....but since when do we EVER take advantage of an opportunity?

Every time things get tight we get tight...and piss it away....every time.....even the luck factor is never with us.....guess what will happen against VCU.....good teams make their own breaks....we don't, because we aren't.

RoadyJay wrote:Have I convinced you that we can still earn an at-large bid?

Yes!

Seemingly a very happy McNamara to tweet this

McNamara is full of it.....PC isn't getting in....the CBS bracket is also full of it for both teams.

PC is in literally zero other brackets.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

RoadyJay wrote:Friday night was brutal... But I'm here to try and lure you all back in. I'll probably fail but I'm going to try anyway.

Our current RPI is 39. Let me remind you that since 2000 over 80% of teams that finished with an RPI of 31-40 made the NCAA tournament.... 80%.... It's very hard to ignore that statistic. Could we end up being one of the 20% with an RPI of 31-40 that don't make it? Of course. But those are still pretty good odds.

I realize that there is also the "eye test" and it's not just about RPI. That's where beating VCU comes in. We can't go 0-3 against VCU and Dayton. That I think we all can agree on.

Of the six remaining games the only one that scares me is @George Mason. We are going to smash Fordham on Wednesday, La Salle has been struggling, St Joe's just lost Kimble for the season, there will be NO step-back-corner-dagger-three from Gibbs against Davidson, and the Ryan Center will be absolutely rockin' against VCU. I still believe that we can afford one more road loss (see George Mason). Would I prefer to win the remaining 6? Of course.

But, I'm sticking to what I have been saying all along... Finish 13-5 in conference and win our Quarterfinal game in the A10 tourney and I believe we are on the right side of the bubble. This would give us an RPI in the low 30s and greater than an 80% chance of having our name called on Selection Sunday.

If we finish 13-5 and make it to the A10 finals I think we are a lock. We are also a lock if we finish 14-4 and win our Quarterfinal game in the A10 tourney. Both scenarios have us at a sub-30 RPI. Since 2000, 97% of teams with and RPI of 21-30 made the NCAA tournament. That's pretty close to a lock.

Have I convinced you that we can still earn an at-large bid?

Here is the thing. You cannot be sure either way. Because the bubble is not the same year to year and during championship week. Does one big get stolen during championship week or is it five? Do fellow bubble teams thrive or get knocked off? If the season ended today, there is about a 1% chance they get selected as an at large. Mostly because this is a stronger bubble than previous years. And also because the committee values good wins on the road/neutral. And we just don't stack up there. Let's face it, it's a gross bubble resume right now.

As much as I hate the thought of it, I was surprised PC hasn't been mentioned when I have heard Seton Hall, Georgetown and Marquette mentioned on all these networks, and PC has not lost a game to any of those teams and has similar record. Not to mention URI, who they also beat and plays in an interior conference They did take care of business in their OOC schedule and have only one " bad loss" vs DePaul and if you want to consider BC. But BC is an ACC team. Now they have beaten Butler, who beat Cincinnati, our sole claim to fame win. With that being said, I certainly don't think PC is an ncaa team and begs the question of how many losses are you allowed? BE is better than the A 10 without question, but I don't think is nearly as good as last year and they are top heavy and also have been hit by some major injuries within their top schools. While the BE is a very good conference, it is not the ACC or Big 12 like some would like to believe.

PC's RPI is 68. They suck. Who cares about freaking PC. That game was two months ago, so I'm not sure why anyone would be talking about them now.

TruePoint wrote:PC's RPI is 68. They suck. Who cares about freaking PC. That game was two months ago, so I'm not sure why anyone would be talking about them now.

I agree with that. But if you want to go that route, our "huge" win against Cincinnati was 3 month ago. Not sure if the committee actually throws out games in Nov and Dec, maybe depends who you are. At this point neither team is an NCAA team. Hope we can somehow change that.

I don't post very often but I've been thinking about this for a while now and this thread seems to be the right place for this observation. Though I'm not the first person to look at it from this perspective, the truth is that at this time of year teams play themselves into the tournament and out of the tournament. The fact that we are in the conversation regardless of how the season has played out to date puts us squarely in the category of controlling our destiny. Win and we are in...lose and it's NIT. I'll continue to believe until there is no more chance. That is what being a fan is. Neil...thanks for your inspiration. Have not and will not quit!

giovanni wrote:

TruePoint wrote:PC's RPI is 68. They suck. Who cares about freaking PC. That game was two months ago, so I'm not sure why anyone would be talking about them now.

I agree with that. But if you want to go that route, our "huge" win against Cincinnati was 3 month ago. Not sure if the committee actually throws out games in Nov and Dec, maybe depends who you are. At this point neither team is an NCAA team. Hope we can somehow change that.

I only brought up the date of the PC game to say why are we talking about a team that we played two months ago. I agree neither URI or PC is a NCAA team at this point.

Gonebarongone wrote:
Here is the thing. You cannot be sure either way. Because the bubble is not the same year to year and during championship week. Does one big get stolen during championship week or is it five? Do fellow bubble teams thrive or get knocked off? If the season ended today, there is about a 1% chance they get selected as an at large. Mostly because this is a stronger bubble than previous years. And also because the committee values good wins on the road/neutral. And we just don't stack up there. Let's face it, it's a gross bubble resume right now.

GBG, I agree with you. Year to year it's hard to say but overall the numbers are pretty compelling that if your RPI is sub-40 you have a very good shot at making it.

I also agree that as of today we are not in. If the season ended today we are in the NIT.

That's why there is plenty of work to be done to get back on the right side of the bubble.

The three things we must do are:
-Finish the regular season 6-0 or 5-1 (one loss on the road)
-Beat VCU
-Win a quarterfinal game in A10

Can we do it? It's a tall task but we've already won 5 out of 6 games a few times this season. VCU doesn't worry me as much as Dayton. VCU really should have two more losses. They've run out of luck, those games against SBU and GW were absolutely gifted to them. We will beat them.

If we can't win a quarterfinal game in the A10s then we don't deserve a bid.

TruePoint wrote:

giovanni wrote:

TruePoint wrote:PC's RPI is 68. They suck. Who cares about freaking PC. That game was two months ago, so I'm not sure why anyone would be talking about them now.

I agree with that. But if you want to go that route, our "huge" win against Cincinnati was 3 month ago. Not sure if the committee actually throws out games in Nov and Dec, maybe depends who you are. At this point neither team is an NCAA team. Hope we can somehow change that.

I only brought up the date of the PC game to say why are we talking about a team that we played two months ago. I agree neither URI or PC is a NCAA team at this point.

I personally don't think PC is in either but would have to say with an 8 and 8 record against top 100 and 3and 7 against top 50 it stacks up better then URI at 2 and 8 top 100. Interesting that cbs actually has PC in the last 4 inane URI out and espn has URI in and no mention of PC.Let me just add PC has two very bad losses outside the top 100 which hurts them very bad and URI does not have any losses outside the top 100 I believe which should help them.

If 5-8 in the Big East is good enough to make the tournament then they should just shut the whole thing down and cancel it.

adam914 wrote:If 5-8 in the Big East is good enough to make the tournament then they should just shut the whole thing down and cancel it.

Obviously not they will probably have to win 4 out of their next 5 which most are winnable games but they have proved to be very inconsistent. If I had to guess neither team will get an at large.

adam914 wrote:If 5-8 in the Big East is good enough to make the tournament then they should just shut the whole thing down and cancel it.

I honestly don't understand this point of view. Not about PC in particular but about a certain record. If you are one of the best 30 something at large, let them in. Clemson is 3-10 in the ACC but #39 in kenpom . They don't have a single loss to a team outside the kenpom top 100 and have nine top 100 wins. Five were away from home. They won't make it because the committee won't have the guts to put a 5-13 conference record team in but who would you bet money on if they played URI on a neutral floor? They did beat Davidson by 20 on a neutral floor. Just take the best teams.

adam914 wrote:If 5-8 in the Big East is good enough to make the tournament then they should just shut the whole thing down and cancel it.

Agreed definitely.

Gonebarongone wrote:

adam914 wrote:If 5-8 in the Big East is good enough to make the tournament then they should just shut the whole thing down and cancel it.

I honestly don't understand this point of view. Not about PC in particular but about a certain record. If you are one of the best 30 something at large, let them in. Clemson is 3-10 in the ACC but #39 in kenpom . They don't have a single loss to a team outside the kenpom top 100 and have nine top 100 wins. Five were away from home. They won't make it because the committee won't have the guts to put a 5-13 conference record team in but who would you bet money on if they played URI on a neutral floor? They did beat Davidson by 20 on a neutral floor. Just take the best teams.

I make a comment about the Big East and you refute it by talking about the ACC. The Big East is not the ACC.

woodennickel1 wrote:

adam914 wrote:If 5-8 in the Big East is good enough to make the tournament then they should just shut the whole thing down and cancel it.

Obviously not they will probably have to win 4 out of their next 5 which most are winnable games but they have proved to be very inconsistent. If I had to guess neither team will get an at large.

I agree, I don't think either team will either. But my comment was related to that one bracket having them in as of right now.

Gonebarongone wrote:

adam914 wrote:If 5-8 in the Big East is good enough to make the tournament then they should just shut the whole thing down and cancel it.

I honestly don't understand this point of view. Not about PC in particular but about a certain record. If you are one of the best 30 something at large, let them in. Clemson is 3-10 in the ACC but #39 in kenpom . They don't have a single loss to a team outside the kenpom top 100 and have nine top 100 wins. Five were away from home. They won't make it because the committee won't have the guts to put a 5-13 conference record team in but who would you bet money on if they played URI on a neutral floor? They did beat Davidson by 20 on a neutral floor. Just take the best teams.

I agree with this to point also. But Big East shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as the ACC this year outside of Villanova. Look at the depth. Also there can be several arguments made around this. With an eye test, I would argue Clemson would win the A 10, hands down. If you are letting the best teams in, this year in particular are all coming from the power 5. Also, Clemson and other power 5 schools have much different and more powerful resources. But with that comes the possibility of not succeeding to a certain level in you particular conference. And the possibility of the view that if you cannot succeed against your conference, you shouldn't be in. How many games do you think URI would win in the ACC? Or BE for that matter? If you get destroyed by LaSalle and Richmond, what makes anyone think they could beat Wake Forest or Clemson? Or Georgetown or Seton Hall? There are not many Duquesne's and Fordham is those conferences.

adam914 wrote:

woodennickel1 wrote:

adam914 wrote:If 5-8 in the Big East is good enough to make the tournament then they should just shut the whole thing down and cancel it.

Obviously not they will probably have to win 4 out of their next 5 which most are winnable games but they have proved to be very inconsistent. If I had to guess neither team will get an at large.

I agree, I don't think either team will either. But my comment was related to that one bracket having them in as of right now.

Yes I was surprised by that I had not even seen them mentioned in a first four out before that.

Clemson has lost quite a few close games against good teams this season...but they would still beat us, close or not.

Remember the year Georgia Tech couldn't beat anyone in a close game under Gregory? Well actually they did win one....against us.

Who knew?