KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

I ran some plus/minus numbers using the URI play by play sheet that comes with the box score. Interesting that in the 5 games against top 100 teams (cincy, duke, valpo, pc, hou), our worst unit out of 60 combinations utilized is our starting lineup at -22. Individual +\-, the team is +22 with EC out of the game and -38 with him in the game.

I tried to attach a picture of the chart I made. Not sure if it's readable. If you can't read it, maybe someone with better technological skills can let me know how best to post it.

URI2006_Andy wrote:I ran some plus/minus numbers using the URI play by play sheet that comes with the box score. Interesting that in the 5 games against top 100 teams (cincy, duke, valpo, pc, hou), our worst unit out of 60 combinations utilized is our starting lineup at -22. Individual +\-, the team is +22 with EC out of the game and -38 with him in the game.

I tried to attach a picture of the chart I made. Not sure if it's readable. IMG_2365.PNG

If you can't read it, maybe someone with better technological skills can let me know how best to post it.

You can right click on it and open in a new tab and zoom on it...which makes it bigger and readable.
Unfortunately, my brain stays the same size and still can't comprehend...

It is a bit tough to read, but I think it says this team needs to get it's act straight and come out like they are trapped in a corner. Which they are. Isn't that all we want? For this team to play 1 game where they kick some ass and show they are all on one page? I just want to see some alley oops, which shows the team is looking for the plays and the players that are open. Haven't seen much of that. Assists.... Make the guy next to you look better.

theblueram wrote:It is a bit tough to read, but I think it says this team needs to get it's act straight and come out like they are trapped in a corner. Which they are. Isn't that all we want? For this team to play 1 game where they kick some ass and show they are all on one page? I just want to see some alley oops, which shows the team is looking for the plays and the players that are open. Haven't seen much of that. Assists.... Make the guy next to you look better.

For me, doesn't even have to be an alley oop...how about a pass that leads directly to a (somewhat) uncontested layup?

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:

URI2006_Andy wrote:I ran some plus/minus numbers using the URI play by play sheet that comes with the box score. Interesting that in the 5 games against top 100 teams (cincy, duke, valpo, pc, hou), our worst unit out of 60 combinations utilized is our starting lineup at -22. Individual +\-, the team is +22 with EC out of the game and -38 with him in the game.

I tried to attach a picture of the chart I made. Not sure if it's readable. IMG_2365.PNG

If you can't read it, maybe someone with better technological skills can let me know how best to post it.

You can right click on it and open in a new tab and zoom on it...which makes it bigger and readable.
Unfortunately, my brain stays the same size and still can't comprehend...

Top table shows players +/- for five games both on the bench and in the game. It's kind of confusing because a negative in the left column is good but a negative on the right is bad. Also an overall negative is bad. Bottom table just shows a bunch of different combinations of lineups with their overall +/-.

I'm not sure how accurate the numbers are because Hass and CT both have -5 for on the bench against Houston but neither played. Assuming the numbers are somewhat accurate I'd say one of the most interesting things is the difference between EC's and Terell's +/-.

In the top chart, each player has two columns. The first column is the number of points URI as a team outscored or was outscored by their opponent while that player was not in the game.

For example, during the cincy game, URI outscored Cincy by 15 points when Akele was not in the game. The second column is the number of points URI as a team outscored their opponent while that player was in the game. So URI was outscored by Cincy by 10 points when Akele was in the game. Even though they didn't play, Martin and Thompson have a -5 in column 1 for the Houston game because the team was outscored by 5 with them not in the game (77-82).

The bottom chart looks at how much uri outscored their opponent or was outscored by their opponent based on the combination of five players that were on the floor. For example, the first row was when Terrell, EC, Stan, iverson and langevine were in together. Those 5 as a unit outscored their oppenents 23-13. That +10 margain was our best plus/minus of any five-man unit.

I only looked at the 5 games against top 100 teams because to me the cupcake games don't tell you much.

You can analyze the data In many ways. I think it shows that EC tries to do too much when we start to struggle against good teams compounding the negative result. You can also look at how certain players do against certain matchups.

For the units, it's a small sample size but you can an idea of what combinations deserve an extra look. For example, I would try the first few combinations for a few more minutes per game to see if there's something there. We know a unit that is -22 against good competition like our starting line up either needs to improve in that number or see less minutes or we're going to the NIT.

That's some good strong research Andy

Couple more thoughts and observations I have after looking at this data some more:

-Over the course of those 5 games we had 52 different lineup combinations that have scored points or been scored on. That seems like a lot of mixing and matching which might explain why we don't seem to have great chemistry.

-Terrell was in 18/19 of the lineups that ended with a positive, EC was in 10/19, Garrett was in 11/19 and Stan was in 12/19. Those guys had the most spots in the positive lineups...Hass, Iverson and CT were in 9/19 and everyone else was in less.

-Out of those 19 lineups only 5 of them had EC and Garrett on the court at the same time with one of those lineups being without Terrell.

-EC was in 24/28 of the lineups that ended with a negative, Terrell was in 17/28, Garrett and Iverson were in 13/28, Stan was in 18/28, Hass and CT were in 10/28.

-Stan and Garrett seemed to be two of the guys who did much better without EC playing next to them and did worse with EC in the lineup with them.

-There seems to be no reliable lineup combination over the course of those games. Our starting lineup scored 18.5 percent of the points in those five games but ended being at -22. The next best lineup scoring wise was our starting lineup but with Akele and not Iverson which scored 10.3 percent of our points and ended at +6.

The biggest thing out of those listed in my opinion is the 52 different lineup combinations. It would be interesting to see how many different lineups Dayton and VCU have played against their 5 best OOC opponents. I know Hurley wants to play a deep bench but that just seems like he's never letting any combination of guys play with each other for very long so they don't develop any chemistry.

josephski wrote:Couple more thoughts and observations I have after looking at this data some more:

-Over the course of those 5 games we had 52 different lineup combinations that have scored points or been scored on. That seems like a lot of mixing and matching which might explain why we don't seem to have great chemistry.

-Terrell was in 18/19 of the lineups that ended with a positive, EC was in 10/19, Garrett was in 11/19 and Stan was in 12/19. Those guys had the most spots in the positive lineups...Hass, Iverson and CT were in 9/19 and everyone else was in less.

-Out of those 19 lineups only 5 of them had EC and Garrett on the court at the same time with one of those lineups being without Terrell.

-EC was in 24/28 of the lineups that ended with a negative, Terrell was in 17/28, Garrett and Iverson were in 13/28, Stan was in 18/28, Hass and CT were in 10/28.

-Stan and Garrett seemed to be two of the guys who did much better without EC playing next to them and did worse with EC in the lineup with them.

-There seems to be no reliable lineup combination over the course of those games. Our starting lineup scored 18.5 percent of the points in those five games but ended being at -22. The next best lineup scoring wise was our starting lineup but with Akele and not Iverson which scored 10.3 percent of our points and ended at +6.

The biggest thing out of those listed in my opinion is the 52 different lineup combinations. It would be interesting to see how many different lineups Dayton and VCU have played against their 5 best OOC opponents. I know Hurley wants to play a deep bench but that just seems like he's never letting any combination of guys play with each other for very long so they don't develop any chemistry.

Of the 52 line up changes how many are due to foul issues? If you get 2 fouls in the first half you automatically come out. 3,4 and of course 5 could mean bench time in the 2nd half.

Probably a lot has to do with foul trouble but that's on Hurley. I've always said his defense leads to a lot of fouling so we may play great defense but it's at the expense of guys ending up in foul trouble which hurts the offense.

To add to this, maybe with a guy like Iverson you start benching him after 1 foul especially if it's in the first two minutes of the game. Take him out, talk to him and try to get him to settle down. Let him sit for 3-4 minutes and then put him back in. Seeing Iverson get 2 fouls within the first five minutes is extremely frustrating and is something that shouldn't be as big of a problem as it is especially for a senior.

josephski wrote:Probably a lot has to do with foul trouble but that's on Hurley. I've always said his defense leads to a lot of fouling so we may play great defense but it's at the expense of guys ending up in foul trouble which hurts the offense.

To add to this, maybe with a guy like Iverson you start benching him after 1 foul especially if it's in the first two minutes of the game. Take him out, talk to him and try to get him to settle down. Let him sit for 3-4 minutes and then put him back in. Seeing Iverson get 2 fouls within the first five minutes is extremely frustrating and is something that shouldn't be as big of a problem as it is especially for a senior.

Yeah, I was really just trying to illustrate that it is just not the HC subbing excessively, when sometimes player situations dictate the moves.

I guess you can attribute the foul trouble to Hurley since he is the Man at the Top and he designs the offense and the defense. But I also have to attribute the big man foul issues to Antonio Reynolds Dean who helps coach the Big Men and also to the players themselves. Some players have higher fouling numbers than others.

I went to the stats through 12 games to see the ball control stats for URI vs Opponents to see what it looks like:
While URI commits the most fouls they lead by healthy margins in Turnovers, Blocks, Steals, 3 Point FG% and Overall FG%

Fouls/Game: URI 21.4 - Opponents 18.2 (+3.2)
Turnovers per Game: URI 10.8 - Opponents 13.8 (- 3.0)
Blocked Shots per Game: URI 5.5 - Opponents 3.3 (+2.2)
Steals per Game: URI 7.2 - Opponents 4.9 (+2.3)
3 Point Shooting Percentage: URI 33.0% - Opponents 30.7% (+2.3%)
FG Percentage: URI 45.7% - Opponents 41.3% (+4.4%)

Iverson leads the team in Fouls with 40 but playing only 21 mpg
Terrell is second with 33 but he plays 31 mpg or 50% more than Iverson
Garrett is third with 31 fouls playing 27 mpg

7 times players have fouled out:
Terrell - 2
Garrett - 2
Iverson - 1
Martin - 1
Robinson - 1

Biggest Issue with Fouling all would agree is Iverson. He is often out of position, comes over the back frequently which is almost always going to be called. I can't remember seeing KI draw an offensive foul because he often is moving his feet. He also has had a number of illegal screen fouls called on him.

When Martin returns things will improve because Langevine will either be starting or playing a lot more minutes than before Martin went out would be my guess.

josephski wrote:
-Terrell was in 18/19 of the lineups that ended with a positive

That stood out to me too. He needs to be in for 38-40 minutes against the good teams.

Thanks for taking the time to put this together. Somehow I missed it when posted, so just wanted to say that.

Agree again with TruePoint (twice in a row, is that a new world record?). I always appreciate when people do research for posts on here and it makes this board a much better place. Thank you for putting in work.

I was watching for that top plus/minus unit tonight consisting of Terrell, EC, STAN, KI and Langevine. They first were in as a unit with 15:21 left in the game, uri up 37-36. The unit was broken up 2 minutes later at 13:23 with the score 46-41 URI. So add another +4 for that unit. Have to wonder what would've happened if that unit got a little more run.

I wonder if Dan and his staff look at situations like these.......I know it's hard to do during a game, but they should be able to break stuff like this down on tape later and hopefully put it to good use for the future....

I think Andy needs to be on the staff to get in DH ear

Column Header Meanings
URI = Points Scored by URI when Player is in the game
Opp = Points Scored by Opponent when Player is in the game
Plus Minus = Difference between the amount of points URI scores and the amount of
points the Opponent scores while player is in the game
Minutes = minutes while Player was in the game
URI* = URI per 40 minutes
Opp* = Opp per 40 minutes
Plus Minus* = Plus Minus per 40 minutes

Updated plus minus stats above. Still learning how to attach spreadsheets more clearly. I tried to show the difference between playing against weaker opponents and playing against better opponents. Haven't had a chance to analyze the data yet but curious to see how others analyze it.

Looks like we should sit Hass against better teams

Andy,
I'd be curious as to what your interpretation of the data means.
Some things to consider:
- new players have likely improved as the season has progressed and they learned the system and gained playing time to develop confidence. So would it make sense to consider only 8 games in A10 play? I'm not sure, just asking.
- Garrett was sick, but nobody knew it, but it was obviously affecting his play. So his stats could be misleading during the illness games - whichever they were I'm not sure
- Martin was hurt. What does a healthy Martin do?
- Dowtin was hurt with his ankle early on
- What about consideration for who players are going against? Starters for URI are arguably going against the best of the opposing team. URI bench players are arguably going against lesser potential,players on the opposing team. If we were to argue Thompson should be in the starting line up then consider his stats were against 2nd team?
Great job with the data, would love your interpretation more than my own. I often find the person who collects and analyzes the data also has the best interpretation as well.

Thank you

To quote an old Chevy Chase skit from SNL, "I was told there would be no math."

yeah that Martin stat jumped out at me. I think part of it is when Martin comes out the other team may take their best big out (But that still means Langevine hurts us less than the other team taking out their best big). Part may be injury. But, I think some of that has to do with guys trying to force it inside to Martin and the offense stalling. Whereas when langevine is in, he just looks for offensive rebounds and the guards are not worried about getting him touches.

URI2006_Andy wrote:I ran some plus/minus numbers using the URI play by play sheet that comes with the box score. Interesting that in the 5 games against top 100 teams (cincy, duke, valpo, pc, hou), our worst unit out of 60 combinations utilized is our starting lineup at -22. Individual +\-, the team is +22 with EC out of the game and -38 with him in the game.

I tried to attach a picture of the chart I made. Not sure if it's readable. IMG_2365.PNG

If you can't read it, maybe someone with better technological skills can let me know how best to post it.

Not surprised by that stat at all. Been stating it all year. E.C. is a turnover machine. The team's biggest strength is also one of their biggest weaknesses, which I imagine puts a coach like Hurley in a tough spot. Iverson has been a little better the last few games, but he has also had plenty of issues with turnovers as well up until then.
In my opinion, the only way this team will make the NCAA tournament is if they improve their free throw shooting % and if E.C. and Iverson can cut down on their turnovers. No more 5 turnover games for each of them. They should each try to limit their turnovers to 3 or less in my opinion.
We'll see how it goes. I won't be holding my breath, that's for sure.

That's why KI had 23 rebs in the game half of those were off the missed layups

Lineup Plus/Minus vs Top Tier Teams

For games vs MD, ALA, LSU, WVU

For Lineups with 4+ minutes

JD, TM, JT, DT, CL +9

FR, TM, JT, JH, CL +8

FR, JD, ML, JT, JH +6

FR, TM, ML, JT, CL +3

FR, JD, TM, JH, CL +2

FR, JD, TM, JT, JH +1

FR, JD, TM, DT, JH -3

FR, JD, JT, DT, JH -4

FR, JD, ML, JT, CL -4

FR, JD, TM, DT, CL -5

FR, JD, TM, JT, CL -6

FR, TM, ML, DT, JH -6

FR, JD, JT, JH, CL -9

FR, JD, JT, DT, CL -10

Small sample size but interesting:

Only 1 of the top 4 lineups has both Jeff and Fatts in it.

Tate only in 1 positive lineup.

Thanks for putting this together. I’ll have to dig a little more on this when I have some time, but one thing that’s interesting is that while DT is only in one positive lineup, it has been our best lineup of all of them in these games. Also interesting that while Fatts has been far and away our best player so far, that’s also the only lineup he isn’t in.

If anyone wants the raw data and makeshift formulas (in excel), I am happy to share. (Message me your email) I copied and pasted the play by play from stats.ncaa.org.

What's really interesting is Jacob Toppin is in 5 of 6 of our positive lineups.

This tells me that Toppin should be the first player of the bench.

KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago This tells me that Toppin should be the first player of the bench.

I have not been able to watch many games thus far (they all seem to conflict with my work schedule) but he seems to be performing well, I'm surprised he hasn't taken more of Harris or Tate's minutes thus far.

KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago This tells me that Toppin should be the first player of the bench.

Toppin for Martin or Toppin for Harris has been negative results so far.

URI2006_Andy wrote: ↑4 years ago

KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago This tells me that Toppin should be the first player of the bench.

Toppin for Martin or Toppin for Harris has been negative results so far.

Other players are involved and he is the common denominator. The plus minus statistics are very telling.

on second look, this just seems to show a team that is wildly inconsistent.

1) I don't think the plus-minus stats are all that relevant until the end of the year though, since the sample size in college is so small. It's one of those frustrating things where you don't have enough of a sample size to act usually until it's too late to do so, barring an extreme split.

2) Toppin's numbers are likely very nice because he's the first or second guy off the bench. So, he's playing against tired starters or other back-ups. Still though, that's better than having negative numbers.

KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago This tells me that Toppin should be the first player of the bench.

I agree. Why is Tate first guy off the bench? Psyche?

NYGFan_Section208 wrote: ↑4 years ago

KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago This tells me that Toppin should be the first player of the bench.

I agree. Why is Tate first guy off the bench? Psyche?

Toppin has had some big breakdowns defensively which is typical for a Fr. He will continue to get more of Tate’s minutes if everything stays the same. Under Cox, Hurley and most coaches the top Fr minutes pick up as the year goes on in conference play. Hurley mentioned this today about Bouknight. Producing Fr need to get better on D to get more minutes.

Rhody83 wrote: ↑4 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote: ↑4 years ago

KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago This tells me that Toppin should be the first player of the bench.

I agree. Why is Tate first guy off the bench? Psyche?

Toppin has had some big breakdowns defensively which is typical for a Fr. He will continue to get more of Tate’s minutes if everything stays the same. Under Cox, Hurley and most coaches the top Fr minutes pick up as the year goes on in conference play. Hurley mentioned this today about Bouknight. Producing Fr need to get better on D to get more minutes.

Yeah, they definitely would have thrown Bouknight out a ton last season to sink or swim. UConn’s roster make-up is interesting this season- they only have ten scholarship players available (one less than URI once Walker gets back), but all ten average at least 10 minutes/game. The talent level needs to improve overall, but they can at least have a solid competition for minutes. I don’t think URI quite has that yet, but the brief benching of Dowtin shows Cox will sometimes make the tough choices.

Athleticism like Toppin has makes it easier to recover on defense, but college defensive schemes are a definite learning experience for freshmen.

.......what time is it?.......Toppintime......

Toppin time love that !!

I would love to see Jacob get a bit more consistent with that outside shot 4-18 from 3 is not good and needs to improve

FR, JD, JT, JH, CL -9

This is the one that surprised me at first glance, because Toppin will be a decent shooter (not great stats thus far) with Harris and Langevine both creating space and rebounding down low. However thinking about it more closely I think Cox has mainly gone to this lineup out of NECESSITY when playing bigger teams like Maryland, just to hold our own inside. That is a lot different than coming from a position of strength and out-sizing teams like they can do more often during the A10 schedule.

NYGFan_Section208 wrote: ↑4 years ago

KevanBoyles wrote: ↑4 years ago This tells me that Toppin should be the first player of the bench.

I agree. Why is Tate first guy off the bench? Psyche?

Toppin started the 2nd half vs WVU. I’d expect Toppin 1st off the bench vs PC
We need Toppin’s energy, talent, rebounding, shooting and overall spark to win the A10 Tournament.
Like the line up of Harris, Langevine, Toppin with Russell, Dowtin and Martin sharing the Guard minutes.

Andy - Can you post the minutes for these plus-minus numbers? You mention that all of them are for lineups with 4 minutes or more, but that's an incredibly small sample size and probably not at all predictive.

With minutes. [And in brackets, the plus minus vs lesser competition]

Lineup Plus/Minus

For games vs MD, ALA, LSU, WVU

[Tier 2 games LIU Nich NT Man]

For Lineups with 3+ minutes

Lineup +/- (minutes) [vs Tier 2 ]

JD, TM, JT, DT, CL +9 (8.03) [under 1 min]

FR, TM, JT, JH, CL +8 (10.97) [ no minutes]

FR, JD, ML, JT, JH +6 (4.02) [under 2 min]

FR, TM, ML, JT, CL +3 (3.33) [under 1 min]

FR, JD, TM, JH, CL +2 (25.47) [+11 (31.33)]

FR, JD, TM, JT, JH +1 (4.90) [+8 (8.48)]

FR, JD, TM, DT, JH -3 (5.77) [+1 (14.00)]

FR, JD, JT, DT, JH -4 (6.28) [+4 (7.07)]

FR, JD, ML, JT, CL -4 (5.98) [under 2 min]

FR, JD, TM, DT, CL -5 (34.35) [+20 (30.12)]

FR, TM, ML, DT, JH -6 (4.25) [+5 (3.13)]

FR, JD, TM, JT, CL -6 (13.85) [+1 (14.27)]

FR, JD, JT, JH, CL -9 (5.38) [ no minutes]

FR, JD, JT, DT, CL -10 (9.38) [+2 (6.00)]

Dont have time to analyze now but love the update with minutes and vs the different tiers. Thank you for this.