KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

This ESPN article focuses on teams that are in full panic mode with the conference season approaching. Of course Rhody makes the list.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... basketball

Here's the blurb on Rhody in case the link above doesn't work.

Rhode Island Rams
Level of panic: You told your boss you were home sick. The boss was going to a conference, you thought. Then you two see each other at the driving range in the middle of the day.

With the return of E.C. Matthews, after a year on the sideline following the season-ending knee injury he suffered in the first game of 2015-16, many expected Rhode Island to sizzle in 2016-17. But the Rams have not looked the part of a top-25 team and Atlantic 10 king in recent weeks. Part of Dan Hurley's challenge involves his lineups. Matthews is a star who is averaging 15.4 PPG and 4.4 RPG. He scored 31 points in his team's 82-77 loss to Houston on Saturday. But, per hoopslens.com, the Rams were significantly better on offense (1.12 PPP compared to 1.25 PPP) and defense (1.38 PPP allowed vs. 0.84 allowed) when Matthews wasn't on the floor. Now, it's not that simple. Houston's best players may have been on the bench in the eight minutes Matthews didn't play, but Hurley's great challenge this season may involve creating the proper rotation to help this talented group regain its swagger and rhythm before conference play begins.

Thx for the post. Looking forward to another thread of dooooooooom.

I thought the Level of Panic thing was funny.

Excellent.....we need to be on that list.

More motivation to fix it!

Still time! No excuses!!!

All you can say to the past few weeks is F**k it and keep playing!

.......nope, not even close ......finish off the next two games, clear the throat, view the conference task ahead as one game at a time, prepare for each opponent, take a deep cleansing breath......just win the next game.....desperation time is if/when the A-10 losses reach three, with games yet to be played.....

From an advanced metric standpoint, URI isn't in a terrible spot.
RPI Forecast, KenPom, Sagarin, URI is ok there.
I think a large part of it had to do with the fact, those metrics thought URI would lose by a few points in most of those games, and they did.
The only place worth being concerned is the overall resume ... At some point, the close losses need to become close wins (the "eyeball" test).
It's not like their OOC was so bad, they need to have a unrealistic 17-1 and A10 championship appearance under their belt to have a shot.
It's still right there for the taking, but they need to mentally toughen up fast.

rjsuperfly66 wrote:From an advanced metric standpoint, URI isn't in a terrible spot.
RPI Forecast, KenPom, Sagarin, URI is ok there.
I think a large part of it had to do with the fact, those metrics thought URI would lose by a few points in most of those games, and they did.
The only place worth being concerned is the overall resume ... At some point, the close losses need to become close wins (the "eyeball" test).
It's not like their OOC was so bad, they need to have a unrealistic 17-1 and A10 championship appearance under their belt to have a shot.
It's still right there for the taking, but they need to mentally toughen up fast.

I don't care for the logo but I agree. Plus a win against a team the caliber of cincy would be tough to get in conference considering no one seems to be a top 25 team. But wins against schools like PC valpo and Houston are available through conference play. The opportunity is there, just have to win them.

The only difficult part about each one of the PC/Valpo/Houston games is that it's one more win you need in conference, or one less loss you can avoid, defending on how you look at it.
If 9 losses was the magic number that could be comfortably afforded, you're down to 5 more.
Basically, need to split the magic 8 (and avoid all big upsets), and hope to get a high-caliber W on the road in there (which basically means Dayton).
Magic 8 (forecasted): 1/6 @ Dayton (RPI 38), 1/15 UMASS (95), 1/28 St. Bonaventure (71), 2/3 @ Davidson (62), 2/7 @ UMASS (95), 2/10 Dayton (38), 2/25 VCU (50), 3/4 Davidson (62)
I'd say if URI did suffer a tough loss, might have to go 5-3 there with 2 Dayton wins ... Dayton is really the only game right now that looks like they can offset (and then some) a "bad loss."
Also have to hope some of those teams don't flop out, and take bad upsets along the way.
If not, just keep winning.

rjsuperfly66 wrote:The only difficult part about each one of the PC/Valpo/Houston games is that it's one more win you need in conference, or one less loss you can avoid, defending on how you look at it.
If 9 losses was the magic number that could be comfortably afforded, you're down to 5 more.
Basically, need to split the magic 8 (and avoid all big upsets), and hope to get a high-caliber W on the road in there (which basically means Dayton).
Magic 8 (forecasted): 1/6 @ Dayton (RPI 38), 1/15 UMASS (95), 1/28 St. Bonaventure (71), 2/3 @ Davidson (62), 2/7 @ UMASS (95), 2/10 Dayton (38), 2/25 VCU (50), 3/4 Davidson (62)
I'd say if URI did suffer a tough loss, might have to go 5-3 there with 2 Dayton wins ... Dayton is really the only game right now that looks like they can offset (and then some) a "bad loss."
Also have to hope some of those teams don't flop out, and take bad upsets along the way.
If not, just keep winning.

Wow, never thought a Friar fan would be the voice of reason, but this person is spot on... the topic is a bit over the top though IMO

rjsuperfly66 wrote:The only difficult part about each one of the PC/Valpo/Houston games is that it's one more win you need in conference, or one less loss you can avoid, defending on how you look at it.
If 9 losses was the magic number that could be comfortably afforded, you're down to 5 more.
Basically, need to split the magic 8 (and avoid all big upsets), and hope to get a high-caliber W on the road in there (which basically means Dayton).
Magic 8 (forecasted): 1/6 @ Dayton (RPI 38), 1/15 UMASS (95), 1/28 St. Bonaventure (71), 2/3 @ Davidson (62), 2/7 @ UMASS (95), 2/10 Dayton (38), 2/25 VCU (50), 3/4 Davidson (62)
I'd say if URI did suffer a tough loss, might have to go 5-3 there with 2 Dayton wins ... Dayton is really the only game right now that looks like they can offset (and then some) a "bad loss."
Also have to hope some of those teams don't flop out, and take bad upsets along the way.
If not, just keep winning.

A10 will most likely be a 2 bid league, maybe only 1 if those RPI numbers end up being accurate.

Splitting those 8 won't necessarily be good enough either. Any scenario where we lose to Dayton twice but split those 8 would not put us in a great spot.

josephski wrote:

rjsuperfly66 wrote:The only difficult part about each one of the PC/Valpo/Houston games is that it's one more win you need in conference, or one less loss you can avoid, defending on how you look at it.
If 9 losses was the magic number that could be comfortably afforded, you're down to 5 more.
Basically, need to split the magic 8 (and avoid all big upsets), and hope to get a high-caliber W on the road in there (which basically means Dayton).
Magic 8 (forecasted): 1/6 @ Dayton (RPI 38), 1/15 UMASS (95), 1/28 St. Bonaventure (71), 2/3 @ Davidson (62), 2/7 @ UMASS (95), 2/10 Dayton (38), 2/25 VCU (50), 3/4 Davidson (62)
I'd say if URI did suffer a tough loss, might have to go 5-3 there with 2 Dayton wins ... Dayton is really the only game right now that looks like they can offset (and then some) a "bad loss."
Also have to hope some of those teams don't flop out, and take bad upsets along the way.
If not, just keep winning.

A10 will most likely be a 2 bid league, maybe only 1 if those RPI numbers end up being accurate.

Splitting those 8 won't necessarily be good enough either. Any scenario where we lose to Dayton twice but split those 8 would not put us in a great spot.

Wow Josephski,, only 2 bids for the A10, maybe only 1?

How many bids for the A10 do you see RJ? If you had to say today and estimate for March?

Bressler would appreciate this:

Iowa Hawkeyes
Level of panic: You're at the game with your friends. You realize you forgot to do something important. Then your wife calls and asks, "Why is my mom still waiting for you at the airport?"

This is something straight out of my nightmares.

ramster wrote:
How many bids for the A10 do you see RJ? If you had to say today and estimate for March?

If I had to guess, 2 or 3, with outside chances at 1 or 4.
1 could only happen, if Dayton went on an unreal run of like 16-2 or higher and a A10 Championship, and prevented teams like URI or VCU from getting resume wins against them. I don't really think that's likely, but possible.
Same with 4, I think 4 could happen, if URI, Davidson/St. Bonaventure, VCU, and Dayton had no bad losses and only shared losses among each other. It would mean 2 or 3 losses each in the A10, and I think that would probably get 4 in. Again, probably unlikely, but possible.
2 or 3 - I think that's most likely, depending on how the committee treats the resumes.
They've really stressed OOC the past few years, if you look at the top 6 in conference and the best 5 wins among them:
#23 Cincinnati - lost to URI
#56 Temple - lost to UMASS
#80 E Tennessee St - lost to Dayton
#86 UNC Asheville - lost to VCU
#100 Princeton - lost to VCU
If you look at the Top 6 against the Top 100, they are 4-14, if you take out UMASS, who probably isn't a real NCAA contender, they are 3-12. Also have 4 losses to teams with 100+ RPIs among the 6, one belongs to UMASS.
They may have a real tough time explaining that to the committee ... Now if you look at the Top 5 in conference, there are still some opportunities left ... Dayton plays Northwestern, VCU actually has a sneaky tough game against Middle Tennessee, and Davidson plays Kansas, those could all be Top 50 games, although Northwestern and Middle Tennessee are closer to the bottom than the top.
If I had to guess based on overall resumes right now, I'd predict 2, but think 3 is also definitely possible depending on who gets hot in conference.

Well so much for a break...had to answer this one....RJ, imagine if we had beaten any one or two of the 3 top 100"s we just played.....we would easily have the best OOC resume going into conference play.....

Talk about opportunity lost.....

ramster wrote:

josephski wrote:

rjsuperfly66 wrote:The only difficult part about each one of the PC/Valpo/Houston games is that it's one more win you need in conference, or one less loss you can avoid, defending on how you look at it.
If 9 losses was the magic number that could be comfortably afforded, you're down to 5 more.
Basically, need to split the magic 8 (and avoid all big upsets), and hope to get a high-caliber W on the road in there (which basically means Dayton).
Magic 8 (forecasted): 1/6 @ Dayton (RPI 38), 1/15 UMASS (95), 1/28 St. Bonaventure (71), 2/3 @ Davidson (62), 2/7 @ UMASS (95), 2/10 Dayton (38), 2/25 VCU (50), 3/4 Davidson (62)
I'd say if URI did suffer a tough loss, might have to go 5-3 there with 2 Dayton wins ... Dayton is really the only game right now that looks like they can offset (and then some) a "bad loss."
Also have to hope some of those teams don't flop out, and take bad upsets along the way.
If not, just keep winning.

A10 will most likely be a 2 bid league, maybe only 1 if those RPI numbers end up being accurate.

Splitting those 8 won't necessarily be good enough either. Any scenario where we lose to Dayton twice but split those 8 would not put us in a great spot.

Wow Josephski,, only 2 bids for the A10, maybe only 1?

How many bids for the A10 do you see RJ? If you had to say today and estimate for March?

I hope that's not the case Ramster but going by those RPI numbers there's no way VCU gets in with a RPI of 50 with the way the a10 has been playing. That would mean us and Dayton but Dayton won't be a definite in at 38. Obviously those numbers are only projections but they're not very promising.

I think 1 bid is unlikely but there are a couple scenarios I could see it happening. One would be we beat Dayton twice, VCU and Davidson don't end up in the top 50 rpi and we go on to win the a10 tournament. Another scenario would be Dayton beats us twice, VCU and Davidson don't end up in the top 50 rpi, and we end up with a RPI in the 40-50 range. In this scenario I think the a10 tournament winner would be the only bid.

What I honestly wish is for more transparency from the committee ... It's tough to say where teams stand because every year it feels like there is a slightly different alteration to what is important to the committee. Sometimes it's a heavy focus on OOC, sometimes it's a very heavy focus on finish, sometimes it's heavy on Top 50 wins, sometimes it's heavy on road/neutral wins, sometimes it's RPI, sometimes it's heavier focus on other metrics. You are basically at the mercy of the committee.

People can argue about college football and how there are still problems with a 4 team playoff, but at least at the end of the day they have their weekly Top 25 polls, so teams competing for the playoffs know where they stand. Basketball is obviously too complex to have a weekly system, but what if they had a Jan 1 & Mar 1 they had a Top 50/75 at-large poll, so at least after OOC and before the conference tournaments, teams know where they are thought to be?

You look at the 2015 Colorado St. team ... They finished the season with an RPI 29 ... Their coach was so confident they were in the tournament, he sat his best player for "health" reasons because he had been banged up and thought the outcome didn't really matter. They lost, and proceeded to miss the tournament. Would he have done that if he knew his team was flush on the bubble? Shame on him, but still ...

I think the best way would be to use some type of objective formula to determine the at-large bids. A formula like KenPom. Then the committee can seed the teams on eye test or whatever metric they want.

I know people hated the BCS system for football, but that's essentially what it was ... Take a bunch of different metrics and have them seed people accordingly ... Other little incentives in there, like a bonus for a quality win, etc. Only difference was that football used a higher focus on human polls, but they had to given the fact BCS was determining 2 teams to play in a Championship, and they couldn't afford having a situation where the polls had a #1 team who was not playing in that game.

My problem with strength metrics, is that a team can lose a lot of games, and still rank ok ... Florida finished last season 19-14, but had a KenPom of 36 ... Creighton was 18-14, ranked 47. These are teams that would suddenly be considered as "bubble teams." For as good as KenPom is, the one important thing it can't accurately measure, is close and late. Sometimes, it's not about how you win, but just getting it done. That is the one thing the RPI does that nothing can really replicate ...

rjsuperfly66 wrote:What I honestly wish is for more transparency from the committee ... It's tough to say where teams stand because every year it feels like there is a slightly different alteration to what is important to the committee. Sometimes it's a heavy focus on OOC, sometimes it's a very heavy focus on finish, sometimes it's heavy on Top 50 wins, sometimes it's heavy on road/neutral wins, sometimes it's RPI, sometimes it's heavier focus on other metrics. You are basically at the mercy of the committee.

People can argue about college football and how there are still problems with a 4 team playoff, but at least at the end of the day they have their weekly Top 25 polls, so teams competing for the playoffs know where they stand. Basketball is obviously too complex to have a weekly system, but what if they had a Jan 1 & Mar 1 they had a Top 50/75 at-large poll, so at least after OOC and before the conference tournaments, teams know where they are thought to be?

You look at the 2015 Colorado St. team ... They finished the season with an RPI 29 ... Their coach was so confident they were in the tournament, he sat his best player for "health" reasons because he had been banged up and thought the outcome didn't really matter. They lost, and proceeded to miss the tournament. Would he have done that if he knew his team was flush on the bubble? Shame on him, but still ...

That's because they pick the teams they want first and rationalize the selections after they are done picking who they want.

UCH21377 wrote:
That's because they pick the teams they want first and rationalize the selections after they are done picking who they want.

Sometimes, but what did the committee gain with the inclusion of schools like Tulsa or Temple last year?
Argument makes sense for the UCONN's and Syracuse's of the world, not so much many of the other schools.
In fact, you could argue schools like Monmouth and Valpo are better stories since people like to root for the underdogs.

rambone 78 wrote:Well so much for a break...had to answer this one....RJ, imagine if we had beaten any one or two of the 3 top 100"s we just played.....we would easily have the best OOC resume going into conference play.....

Talk about opportunity lost.....

win 2 of those three...most likely still be ranked

rjsuperfly66 wrote:People can argue about college football and how there are still problems with a 4 team playoff, but at least at the end of the day they have their weekly Top 25 polls, so teams competing for the playoffs know where they stand. Basketball is obviously too complex to have a weekly system, but what if they had a Jan 1 & Mar 1 they had a Top 50/75 at-large poll, so at least after OOC and before the conference tournaments, teams know where they are thought to be?

This is such a common sense idea. Why hasn't ESPN or CBS/Turner thrown money at this, you're telling me it wouldn't get ratings on some random Monday or Tuesday night?

The OOC for the A10 was really bad

I will guess 2 bids most likely

YUP. Seems right.

section(105) wrote:.......nope, not even close ......finish off the next two games, clear the throat, view the conference task ahead as one game at a time, prepare for each opponent, take a deep cleansing breath......just win the next game.....desperation time is if/when the A-10 losses reach three, with games yet to be played.....

it is approaching.....no?

1 bid league...tourney winner and that's it...

VCU and the tourney winner...unless it's VCU winning the tourney. Which they do often.

time to push the panic button

Still think 2 bids for sure but doesn't look like URI

section(105) wrote:

section(105) wrote:.......nope, not even close ......finish off the next two games, clear the throat, view the conference task ahead as one game at a time, prepare for each opponent, take a deep cleansing breath......just win the next game.....desperation time is if/when the A-10 losses reach three, with games yet to be played.....

it is approaching.....no?

.......urgency or panic?......after all February is fast approaching.....

105, at least Baron's teams waited until February to collapse.....we got the jump on them.....

rambone 78 wrote:105, at least Baron's teams waited until February to collapse.....we got the jump on them.....

We haven't even collapsed. There's been nothing to collapse from, we've just been bad the whole year...

imagine next year when we have less of a "front court"

unreal

No room for error now boys and girls got to be perfect

This season was an upgrade in that the best part was November rather than Summer.

It ain't over yet.

TOP 25 talent here. Step up Dan.

REVERSE THE CURSE!

GO RHODY!

5 teams have 2 conference losses, we have 3 conference losses

Time for a win streak vs Bonnie's, GW, @ Davidson, @ UMASS ------ puts us at 8-3 with Dayton coming to our house February 11th!

......if not now, today; then when.....? Game 1 of the A-10 Tourney?

Ramster is a great fan. I really love his optimism. But at some point, there needs to be a more realistic point of view.

Billyboy78 wrote:Ramster is a great fan. I really love his optimism. But at some point, there needs to be a more realistic point of view.

Well, we got 1 of the 4 games that I'm hoping to win leading up to the Dayton game - 3 to go
1. George Washington - home
2. Davidson - away
3. UMASS - away
Win those 3 more and we will have won 6 pod our last 7 going into Dayton at home February 11 and a rockin Ryan

And we have now won 3 of our last 4 A10 games.

Sure,its optimism, but if you don't have optimism at this point, then what do you have?

I don't think beating GW, Davidson and UMASS going into Dayton on our home turf is out of the realm of possibility.

It really wouldn't be unbelievable if we win our next three.
We're just such fuck ups.
I'd beat lots of money we beat GW, but @ Davidson and @Umass will be really tough for us... who knows how we will show up to those games.

I agree with you PRT, but it is also,feasible we could win all 3 prior to Dayton. Can you imagine the crowd for Dayton if we got 6,757 today?

Even the most pessimistic posters here at this point in time have to admit that they were bowled over by the 6,757 crowd

Ramster, I think we still have to ramp up our performance if we think we are going on the road and winning at Davidson and UMass back-to-back. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. GW first.

UCH21377 wrote:Ramster, I think we still have to ramp up our performance if we think we are going on the road and winning at Davidson and UMass back-to-back. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. GW first.

For sure UCH,

Look in the game thread where our starters had only 1 steal. Bench gets 6, starters get 1 and that by Robinson. How do Dowtin, Mathews, Terrell and Martin get zero steals? Not sure I'd call that great defense.
Shot blocking by Martin, Iverson and Langevine was the power of the defense today.
If Dowtin, Terrell and Mathews can't improve on steals and creating turnovers then let's see more Thompson and Robinson!!

Screw loyalty. It's desperation time. Havoc on defense I gotta have more Steals (cowbell)

We have to ramp up,from here UCH, this performance will not put us 8-3 going into the Dayton game

ramster, agreed on the crowd.

For you and RJ....9-1 and we dance.

8-2...it's bubble time....anything less and have to win A10T.

Not saying it's going to happen, mind you.

ramster wrote:

UCH21377 wrote:Ramster, I think we still have to ramp up our performance if we think we are going on the road and winning at Davidson and UMass back-to-back. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. GW first.

For sure UCH,

Look in the game thread where our starters had only 1 steal. Bench gets 6, starters get 1 and that by Robinson. How do Dowtin, Mathews, Terrell and Martin get zero steals? Not sure I'd call that great defense.
Shot blocking by Martin, Iverson and Langevine was the power of the defense today.
If Dowtin, Terrell and Mathews can't improve on steals and creating turnovers then let's see more Thompson and Robinson!!

Screw loyalty. It's desperation time. Havoc on defense I gotta have more Steals (cowbell)

We have to ramp up,from here UCH, this performance will not put us 8-3 going into the Dayton game

Did someone say...more cowbell?

......yes, more cowbell....

ok...you asked for it...

Classic Rock and Roll song " This lady she asks me"

REVERSE THE CURSE!

GO RHODY!