KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

So in this instance, they have us favored to win the remainder of our games on an individual level, but actually project us to lose two more before the A10 tournament for the expected RPI of 36.1

So I spent some time messing around with the rpi wizard and going over scenarios. They have us finishing third in the conference, so we'd take on the winner of the LA Salle vs. UMass/St. Louis game.

I came up with a nightmare scenario where we lose to Dayton, VCU and St. Louis in the tournament and it spit out an RPI of 41. There's no way we make the dance with that rpi with our resume.

Then I did a middle ground one that had us beat Dayton but lose to VCU and La Salle twice. That produced an RPI of 35. That's squeaky bum time on selection Sunday. That rpi is in range of almost lock and Cincinnati and Dayton are very good wins. I don't think we'd be UTep last year where people are like how did they get in, but I wouldn't be taking Thursday and Friday out to prepare for our game either.

Then I ran a scenario where we split the next two, lost to VCU, beat LA Salle and lost to Dayton in the tournament. That projects to an RPI of 30. This should be enough to get us in, but I'm sure we'd wonder if we got enough high quality wins to avoid getting Bonaventured until we were called.

Live RPI is now at 33 following the game.

This is really good and will help us going forward as long as we take care of business

We are at the point in the season where there won't be such a wide gap between expected RPI and live RPI.

We were mostly expected to win last night (65%) so expected RPI is not moving too much following the win.

our "BPI" on espn is now 33, moving up 5 spots after the UMASS win. That also makes us a few spots ahead of Dayton and VCU.

Following critical UMass road win...

Today's RPI: 33
Expected RPI: 32.8

We now have approximately 70% chance of finishing with RPI between approximately 21 and 32.

And a 90.15% chance of having an RPI less than 40.

An RPI approaching 40 means our resume is too flawed for consideration.

Expected 32.8?
That's awesome.
If we beat Dayton our RPI will go into the twenties it looks like.

Just checked the RPI's for the A10...there's only 5 under 100 and Richmond is at 101.....nobody else is close other than 110 Davidson and they just lost at home to 144 George Mason.....bye bye.

We only have 3 more opportunities for top 100 wins in the regular season.....if we win all 3, we're at 7-6.....not great, but at least we'd be 3-2 against the top 50.....

Man the margin for error....there is hardly any. Even if we finish with a low 30's RPI.....we're no lock whatsoever.

It really is all about who you beat and where......Friday night is a must win, no doubt about it.

and it's very, very much about how you do in the A10 Tournament

beat Dayton and VCU and we could absorb 1 bad loss IMO.
We need Top 100 wins. We need wins to put in that box on Selection Sunday that says "Good Wins"
Maybe we get 1 more in the A10 tourney but would prefer to not be so reliant upon it.

Yes and I think that 1 bad loss could be at GMU

So if we go 6-1 rest of way beating Dayton and VCU we will be in great shape heading into a10 tourney

Even if we win out, which is unlikely, I would be very concerned if we were to lose our first game of the A10 Tournament. I think at least one win in the A10 tournament is a must

For comparison's sake, we beat Davidson and UMass on the road.....I think both GMU and LaSalle are better than those two.....so it will be a struggle to win those two.....

ramster, I agree I don't think we will win out either.....but 1 loss is max, and none to VCU or Dayton...and at least 1 win in the A10T.

We've made it really hard on ourselves.......

If we have 10 losses there's 0 shot at an at large, if we have 9 losses there's a slim possibility.

rambone 78 wrote:For comparison's sake, we beat Davidson and UMass on the road.....I think both GMU and LaSalle are better than those two.....so it will be a struggle to win those two.....

ramster, I agree I don't think we will win out either.....but 1 loss is max, and none to VCU or Dayton...and at least 1 win in the A10T.

We've made it really hard on ourselves.......

I feel like GMU and La Salle won't be anymore difficult to beat than Davidson.
Even though La Salle trashed us before.
Both GMU have some really puzzling losses.
If we bring our defense in those games we will have a chance to win in the end.
Either way it'll take a desperate effort from us since our offense is so mediocre.
(Even though it's efficient)
It still sucks.
It seems like all we need to do to win in this league is to put a good 5 minutes of offense together to pull away.
Which we are barely capable of.

Rhody15 wrote:If we have 10 losses there's 0 shot at an at large, if we have 9 losses there's a slim possibility.

That is exactly what I have been thinking.

Is that 9 losses in the regular season or after the A10T?

I think we can only afford 1 more regular season loss, and not to Dayton or VCU.

And that loss being on the road.

Good that this thread has returned to being a reminder that our fans don't have any idea what they are talking about.

TruePoint wrote:Good that this thread has returned to being a reminder that our fans don't have any idea what they are talking about.

It reminds me that we know EVERYTHING

I kind of look at it by the number of wins we have after the a10 tourney

24 should be our magic number

Oversimplification to just look at wins rather than composition of record, resume, metrics.

ATPTourFan wrote:Oversimplification to just look at wins rather than composition of record, resume, metrics.

It's like why have the metrics at all

It used to be that if a team is playing well down the stretch, that would give them an edge. Does the committee even consider stuff like that anymore? I hate them relying on all these numbers. Yeah, I'm old school. Just watch the games and pick the team's that deserve to be there.

For sure they rely on how the teams do down the stretch but especially important is how teams do in their Conference Tournaments. The A10 Tournament is critical for us. Lose the first round game and it's almost impossible.
But it appears that the Committee is looking at more then just the RPI, but they are now going to incorporate Ken Pom and others in their analysis.

The more things that get looked at the more difficult it should get for an idiotic move like putting Tulsa in last year - there was a lot of ugliness as to who knew who in that one

Let's just win tonight.

True a loss tonight and then we have some major scrambling to do

Hey reef...we're a 30 RPI team if you count the first 38 minutes of games.

The last 2 minutes....we're a 300 RPI team.

Friars may be going into a premature meltdown.I noticed four friar town billboards removed from Warwick and route 95 around Providence.I was surprised to see both pc and uri commercials at half time of the Villanova game.I tuned into the last five of pc vs Butler.John rooke said......and I quote "....Butler just isn't getting it done right now like Rhode Island last night" .....really John.....You gotta bring it up during a pc contest.?..........With Xavier hopping in and out of the rankings......with Butler and Creighton dropping like a rock.........anybody see us playing them in the nit with their 71 rpi? Xaviers injuries may provide a win for Pc

I really don't know if anyone cares a whole lot about that prospect....but I do think both teams will be in the tournament.

Rooke is an effin douche bag!!!!! I wonder how the Friars would be doing with playing a freshman point guard 30 minutes a game.

If we beat PC in the NIT, it would be a slight improvement over not making the tourney.

Rhodymob05 wrote:If we beat PC in the NIT, it would be a slight improvement over not making the tourney.

So slight, you "might" be able to get a piece of peper in between them.... I think beating Fordham on Wednesday would mean more than beating PC in the NotInTournament....and there will probably be more people there, too....jmo... Would be like the Red Sox beating the Yankmes in Ft. Myers....

Beating anybody going forward means little if we don't beat them all......otherwise we're playing for our NIT seeding.....

The question is, what are the odds, if we win all 6, and are 22-8 with an rpi around 32-36 three weeks from now, that we are a bubble ncaa team.............?
.....I remember Jim Harrick saying in '98, that you need 7 top 100 rpi wins to be considered. That stat has generally held up.
With a win over VCU we would only have three, Belmont, Cincy, and VCU.

NYGFan_Section208 wrote:

Rhodymob05 wrote:I thnk beating Fordham on Wednesday would mean more than beating PC in the NotInTournament....and there will probably be more people there, too....jmo... Would be like the Red Sox beating the Yankmes in Ft. Myers....

Ummmm, no.

Beating that hideous, disgusting institution that shall not be named at anything at anytime is extremely satisfying.

Win our last 6 we put ourselves in great shape

CTRamfan wrote:The question is, what are the odds, if we win all 6, and are 22-8 with an rpi around 32-36 three weeks from now, that we are a bubble ncaa team.............?
.....I remember Jim Harrick saying in '98, that you need 7 top 100 rpi wins to be considered. That stat has generally held up.
With a win over VCU we would only have three, Belmont, Cincy, and VCU.

Winning the last 6 games puts us with a RPI of 28.1, not 32 to 36. We have a 15.34% chance of winning all 6 games.
Then the all important A10 Tournament and all the other post season conference Tournaments that will play a huge impact for many bubble teams.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Rhode%20Island.html
Record/RPI/Probability
22-8 (28.1) 15.34%
21-9 (33.7) 34.73%
20-10 (42.1) 31.15%
19-11(51.2) 14.51%
18-12 (62.7) 3.74%
17-13 (77.8) 0.50%
16-14 (91.5) 0.02%

So this is how Uri feels is it.........I'd still rather be in our shoes than theirs.......... http://www.providencejournal.com/sports ... directions

Let's stop all of this at large and RPI stuff

We may not even be NIT worthy ???

This is another thread that needs to die.

Same for the Games of Interest thread.......

I'm am thinking back to the Baron years......remember when we use to run out of steam consistently around this time of the season?

class of 86 wrote:I'm am thinking back to the Baron years......remember when we use to run out of steam consistently around this time of the season?

At least those teams gave us some glimmer Of hope.

WE need to get a decent coach in here DH not getting the job done

reef wrote:WE need to get a decent coach in here DH not getting the job done

It really seems that, in retrospect, that DH's biggest error was not calling an old coach, even one with Rhody ties, and having them on the staff. I've said it a million times that it should have been Al. The guy is a basketball lifer and helped out an old pal at Bryant. He wouldn't have come to URI for a year or two? This roster absolutely is good enough to make the NCAAs. DH is just lower quartile when it comes to putting the players in a position to thrive. Troy Bell was 2x Big East POY. Jared Dudley was ACC POY. Several all conference guys. All good to great players but he made them shine. We needed more than just a bunch of yes men on the bench. Especially after Preston and Bobby left.

This year will be a big stain on DH coaching career

The Fordham loss had a huge impact on expected RPI. If you look at RPI wizzard and just run it you get our predicted RPI at 52, if you change that game to a win expected RPI is 38. I dont recall any other single game being that much of a swing.

I think the only chance of an at large is if they win out and then lose in the championship, with a semi-final win against VCU or Dayton. That would put us at 23-10 and an RPI ~32

In that spot we will be bubble could go either way and depend on what happens all other conferences