ramster wrote:Rhody15 wrote:Can anyone provide legitimate reasons why you think we still have a chance at an at large bid? Or how we can have confidence in winning out, with road games at GM, at La Salle, and home VCU?
I'll take shot at it Rhody15:
This is from today RPI Forecast for the remaining 6 games
2-15 Fordham (218.3) HOME 94% (16.9 favored)
2-18 George Mason (113.7) AWAY 69% (5.5 favored)
2-21 La Salle (100.9) AWAY 69% (5.3 favored)
2-25 VCU (25.8) HOME 61% (3.0 favored)
3-1 Saint Joseph's (153.8) AWAY 72% (6.5 favored)
3-4 Davidson (117.1) HOME 77% (8.1 favored)
Record/RPI/Probability
22-8 (28.1) 15.34% - Must win all 6 remaining games
21-9 (33.7) 34.73% - Must win 5 of 6 remaining games
Then the A10 Tournament which will be critically important to NCAA Bid determination.
So we have a 61.8% probability of finishing the A10 Season with a 33.7 or better RPI
The A10 Conference Performance will be a large determining factor as to whether we get in or not.
Why do I think we can still get an NCAA Bid?
Let's compare the 2 games with Dayton:
Game 1 @ Dayton:
- URI lost by 3 points 67-64
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Hassan Martin only played 20 minutes due to still recovering from Quad injury. 3-5 FG, 1-2 FTs, 5 rebounds, 1 block, 2 assists, 1 steal, 7 points
- Jared Terrell 31 minutes, 2-5 FG, 2-3 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 4 TOs, 3 fouls, 7 points
- Kuran Iverson 32 minutes, 6-12 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 4 TOs, 3 fouls, 14 points
- Jeff Dowtin only played 14 minutes, 2-3 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 TO, 3 fouls, 5 points
- Kendall Pollard 31 minutes, 8-16 FGs, 2-5 FTs, 5 rebounds, 18 points
- Scoochie Smith 38 minutes, 8-13 FGs, 3-5 FTs, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 1 TO, 21 points
- Xeyrius Williams 15 minutes, 0-2 FGs, 2-2 FTs, 2 rebounds, 2 points
- Charles Cooke - DID NOT PLAY
Game 2 Home vs Dayton
- URI lost by 1 point 75-74
- Hassan Martin played
32 minutes. 4-6 FG, 7-9 FTs, 5 rebounds, 3 block, 2 TOs, 2 fouls 15 points
- Jared Terrell 36 minutes, 4-10 FG, 5-8 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 2 steals, 2 TOs, 2 fouls, 15 points
- Kuran Iverson 33 minutes, 7-12 FGs, 3-4 FTs, 7 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal, 1 blocks, 1 TOs, 2 fouls, 20 points
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Jeff Dowtin only played 23 minutes due to foul trouble, 2-4 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 2 blocked shots, 3 fouls, 5 points
- Kendall Pollard 33 minutes, 4-9 FGs, 8-10 FTs, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals, 1 block, 3 fouls, 18 points
- Scoochie Smith 33 minutes, 3-10 FGs, 1-2 FTs, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 3 TO, 4 fouls, 7 points
- Xeyrius Williams 19 minutes, 5-7 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 4 fouls, 13 points
- Charles Cooke - 36 minutes, 4-11 FGs, 5-6 FTs, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 TO, 3 fouls, 13 points
- If we don't get offensive goal tending on the EC shot late in the game we win, it's that close
Why do I think we will beat Dayton in the A10 Tournament?
- We played them very tough in both games - combined 4 points in 2 losses
- Our players know that they can beat Dayton
- The second game we played Dayton included Martin healthy. Iverson again had a solid game in the 2nd game with 20 points, 7 rebounds
- Smith was less effective going only 3-10 FGs - we played much better defense on him
- Cooke played the 2nd game with 13 points, 8 rebounds in 36 minutes - significant difference from 1st game when he DNP.
But even with Cooke back and with WIlliams having an unexpectedly good game we still played Dayton tough and to the wire
- Williams has a much better game in the 2nd game with 5 rebounds and 13 points in 19 minutes
- Dayton is playing their basketball of the season,
but so are we having won 6 of last 8
I think we beat Dayton in the A10 Tournament
As for VCU:
- They are led primarily by JeQuan Lewis averaging 15.6 ppg and 4.5 assists per game and by Justin Tillman averaging 12.5 ppg and 8.6 rebounds per game.
- I think we match up well against VCU and just as Dowtin has done a good job defensively against the likes of Pipkins of UMASS, Smith of Dayton, Gibbs of Davidson, I think he will limit Lewis from having a big game against us. I think Martin and Iverson match up well against Cox and Tillman respectively.
I think we take VCU on our home court as well as in the A10 Tournament 