Re: 2016-17 Bracketology
Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:36 pm
God I hate Boeheim
ATPTourFan wrote:God I hate Boeheim
But if thats the criteria then it needs to be known. If decisions will be made based upon what happened to a team in the tournament two years ago then shouldn't they be up front about that so teams and conferences know that? And then just do away with all metrics used to evaluate teams and say "this is a tournament made up of teams that we think will make good matchups and has nothing to do with what happened in the regular season".josephski wrote:The tournament committee wants competitive teams in the tournament. Anyone who has watched Syracuse play at least several times this year would know that they'd probably beat URI more often than not on a neutral court. I haven't seen it mentioned here lately but I think Davidson getting absolutely destroyed 2 years ago in the tournament hurt the A10 slightly. They won the league and had one of the worst losses among at large teams in recent history. Wasn't a good look for the a10 and I'm sure the tournament committee wants to avoid games like that one.adam914 wrote:Lunardi was just on live during the Syracuse game and he said he would not drop them off even if they loss today. His reasoning was interesting, to say the least. "They were in this spot last year and lost and then went to the final four so i wouldnt drop them out". Must be nice to not have this year count towards anything just cause you are in the ACC
In fairness, is he wrong? If you're going to have it down there, wouldn't Charlotte make a better destination to have it? Greensboro feels small time considering the ACC is the best conference.ATPTourFan wrote:God I hate Boeheim
RhowdyRam02 wrote:In fairness, is he wrong? If you're going to have it down there, wouldn't Charlotte make a better destination to have it? Greensboro feels small time considering the ACC is the best conference.ATPTourFan wrote:God I hate Boeheim
Just to add to my point here, because I kind of rushed through my last post, the problem with that line of thinking is that it dismisses too much of what actually happened this season in favor of hypotheticals. Saying Syracuse "would probably beat URI on a neutral court" should never be used to determine anything. If URI never played Cincinnati this year I bet everyone would say "anyone who watched Cincinnati play this year would know they would beat URI more often then not on a neutral court" but luckily that game is a real thing that happened and they did not beat URI on a neutral court. So the reality is nobody knows what would happen in that situation so why use it as any sort of evidence as to how the field should be decided?adam914 wrote:But if thats the criteria then it needs to be known. If decisions will be made based upon what happened to a team in the tournament two years ago then shouldn't they be up front about that so teams and conferences know that? And then just do away with all metrics used to evaluate teams and say "this is a tournament made up of teams that we think will make good matchups and has nothing to do with what happened in the regular season".josephski wrote:The tournament committee wants competitive teams in the tournament. Anyone who has watched Syracuse play at least several times this year would know that they'd probably beat URI more often than not on a neutral court. I haven't seen it mentioned here lately but I think Davidson getting absolutely destroyed 2 years ago in the tournament hurt the A10 slightly. They won the league and had one of the worst losses among at large teams in recent history. Wasn't a good look for the a10 and I'm sure the tournament committee wants to avoid games like that one.adam914 wrote:Lunardi was just on live during the Syracuse game and he said he would not drop them off even if they loss today. His reasoning was interesting, to say the least. "They were in this spot last year and lost and then went to the final four so i wouldnt drop them out". Must be nice to not have this year count towards anything just cause you are in the ACC
We're talking about bubble teams though, when you get to the last teams in the tournament you can't go strictly on their resume because everyone will have positives you can point to and everyone will have flaws. The tournament committee is forced to make a judgement call on who they they think should get in. That's where I can see cases like Syracuse making a final four run last year, A10 being extremely weak this year, and other circumstances come into play.adam914 wrote:Just to add to my point here, because I kind of rushed through my last post, the problem with that line of thinking is that it dismisses too much of what actually happened this season in favor of hypotheticals. Saying Syracuse "would probably beat URI on a neutral court" should never be used to determine anything. If URI never played Cincinnati this year I bet everyone would say "anyone who watched Cincinnati play this year would know they would beat URI more often then not on a neutral court" but luckily that game is a real thing that happened and they did not beat URI on a neutral court. So the reality is nobody knows what would happen in that situation so why use it as any sort of evidence as to how the field should be decided?adam914 wrote:But if thats the criteria then it needs to be known. If decisions will be made based upon what happened to a team in the tournament two years ago then shouldn't they be up front about that so teams and conferences know that? And then just do away with all metrics used to evaluate teams and say "this is a tournament made up of teams that we think will make good matchups and has nothing to do with what happened in the regular season".josephski wrote:
The tournament committee wants competitive teams in the tournament. Anyone who has watched Syracuse play at least several times this year would know that they'd probably beat URI more often than not on a neutral court. I haven't seen it mentioned here lately but I think Davidson getting absolutely destroyed 2 years ago in the tournament hurt the A10 slightly. They won the league and had one of the worst losses among at large teams in recent history. Wasn't a good look for the a10 and I'm sure the tournament committee wants to avoid games like that one.
Yeah STRONG disagree there. Ignoring how the perception of past Syracuse teams, or past conference results has nothing to do with this season, absolutely no shot does Syracuse "probably" beat URI more often than not on a neutral court. That's asinine.josephski wrote:The tournament committee wants competitive teams in the tournament. Anyone who has watched Syracuse play at least several times this year would know that they'd probably beat URI more often than not on a neutral court. I haven't seen it mentioned here lately but I think Davidson getting absolutely destroyed 2 years ago in the tournament hurt the A10 slightly. They won the league and had one of the worst losses among at large teams in recent history. Wasn't a good look for the a10 and I'm sure the tournament committee wants to avoid games like that one.adam914 wrote:Lunardi was just on live during the Syracuse game and he said he would not drop them off even if they loss today. His reasoning was interesting, to say the least. "They were in this spot last year and lost and then went to the final four so i wouldnt drop them out". Must be nice to not have this year count towards anything just cause you are in the ACC
Right, I understand judgement calls need to be made, and that's fine. But at least make your judgement based on actual things that happened throughout the season and not on a hypothetical head to head matchup or what another team in the same conference did two years ago.josephski wrote: We're talking about bubble teams though, when you get to the last teams in the tournament you can't go strictly on their resume because everyone will have positives you can point to and everyone will have flaws. The tournament committee is forced to make a judgement call on who they they think should get in. That's where I can see cases like Syracuse making a final four run last year, A10 being extremely weak this year, and other circumstances come into play.
As for URI beating Cincy, I still think Cincy would beat us the majority of the time on a neutral court which is what I said about Syracuse. Could URI beat Syracuse? Definitely but when you have to very similar teams it's a judgement call. I do agree that the selection committee should come out and say exactly why the picked some teams over others and what they're looking at other than team's resumes.
Also I know everyone here loves to bring up kenpom and he has Syracuse rated higher than us, as does the ESPN BPI.
Oh well.... I did not fully read your comment....whoopsTruePoint wrote:That's what I said. I'm confused.PeterRamTime wrote:Fultz won't be playing USCTruePoint wrote:OK, so here is my tracker. Will update as results come in. We want to see this thing littered with red before we play on Friday. Today, go Va Tech, DePaul, Duke, Washington, Miami, Oregon St. and UVA! Fultz is not playing for Washington, so there goes my fantasy of future Celtic great Fultz knocking USC out of the tournament and opening a spot for Rhody.
He's injured.
Or not.adam914 wrote:Pullin' away
I mean if Duke keeps winning it will incrementally help our RPI and OOC SOS. If we're sweating on Sunday that would help.adam914 wrote:Nice job Dookies. Now never win another game again for the rest of your existence (unless you play Providence).
We can agree to disagree then. I've watched every Syracuse game and every URI game, I'm no expert by any means but I'm not just basing my opinion off of stats.Blue Man wrote:Yeah STRONG disagree there. Ignoring how the perception of past Syracuse teams, or past conference results has nothing to do with this season, absolutely no shot does Syracuse "probably" beat URI more often than not on a neutral court. That's asinine.josephski wrote:The tournament committee wants competitive teams in the tournament. Anyone who has watched Syracuse play at least several times this year would know that they'd probably beat URI more often than not on a neutral court. I haven't seen it mentioned here lately but I think Davidson getting absolutely destroyed 2 years ago in the tournament hurt the A10 slightly. They won the league and had one of the worst losses among at large teams in recent history. Wasn't a good look for the a10 and I'm sure the tournament committee wants to avoid games like that one.adam914 wrote:Lunardi was just on live during the Syracuse game and he said he would not drop them off even if they loss today. His reasoning was interesting, to say the least. "They were in this spot last year and lost and then went to the final four so i wouldnt drop them out". Must be nice to not have this year count towards anything just cause you are in the ACC
Here's how they did on the road or in neutral court games:
@ #3 Louisville - loss by 20
@ #4 UNC - loss by 17
@ #24 ND - loss by 18
N #33 SC - loss by 14
@ #38 Wisc - loss by 17
N #41 Miami - loss by 3
@ #45 VT - loss by 10
@ #67 Clem - WON BY 1 OMG!
@ #70 Pitt - loss by 15
@ #94 GT - loss by 6
@ #124 NCSU - WON BY 7
@ #211 BC - loss by 15
2-11, -127 point differential, average loss by 15, average win by 4. Best win against #67 by 1. Worst loss against #211 by 15.
That's not even CLOSE. They're a completely different team outside of the Carrier dome.
Nevermind the fact they got ROLLED at HOME by #133 St Johns. 33 points. THIRTY THREE.
To compare to say, URI, for instance:
N #13 Cinci - Win by 5
N #14 Duke - loss by 10
@ #21 Dayton - loss by 3
@ #50 Houston - loss by 5
@ #52 PC - loss by 3
@ #57 Valpo - loss by 3
@ #85 Rich - loss by 11
@ #106 Davidson - win by 11
@ #109 GMU - win by 3
@ #126 La Salle - win by 11
@ #189 UMass - win by 18
@ #190 SJU - win by 19
@ #243 SLU - win by 34
@ #244 Duq - win by 21
8-6 with at least one other neutral game to go. +87 point differential, average win by 15, average loss by 5. Best win #13 by 5. Worst loss #85 by 11.
Worst loss of the season? 12 points at home by #126 La Salle. A team who they then went and beat on the road by 11.
Want to keep it to just neutral? Cuse is 0-2 to #33 and #120, losses by 14 and 2. URI is 1-1 - beat #13 by 5, lost to #14 by 10. Seems like Rhody would have the edge in a neutral court too.
Don't even mention anything about being "competitive" this season. Unless they're getting a home game at the carrier dome for every round, nothing about the above resembles "competitive."
You could maybe say..yeah URI played more games against lower ranked competition..to which I would say you still got your asses kicked by Boston College. I could turn around and say if we were handed 7 top 50 home games on our schedule we probably win most of them too.
If you really want to look at who cuse is away from home, compare them to who they had home and home's with:
beat Miami by 15 at home. Lost to them by 3 in a must win situation on a neutral floor a few hours from campus. Beat Pitt at home by 11, lost to them by 5 on the road. Beat GT by 29 at home. Lost to them by 6 on the road. Beat BC by 23 at home, lost by 15 on the road.
Not even close to the same team. Not NCAA worthy.
In response to your Syracuse "probably" beating URI more often than not on a neutral floor - I'm going to go with Rhody wins 7 out of 10, all 3 losses coming by less than 10 points, 3 wins by more than 15.
Fair point, I was not putting much rationale into my emotional response.Blue Man wrote:I mean if Duke keeps winning it will incrementally help our RPI and OOC SOS. If we're sweating on Sunday that would help.adam914 wrote:Nice job Dookies. Now never win another game again for the rest of your existence (unless you play Providence).
josephski wrote:We can agree to disagree then. I've watched every Syracuse game and every URI game, I'm no expert by any means but I'm not just basing my opinion off of stats.Blue Man wrote:Yeah STRONG disagree there. Ignoring how the perception of past Syracuse teams, or past conference results has nothing to do with this season, absolutely no shot does Syracuse "probably" beat URI more often than not on a neutral court. That's asinine.josephski wrote:
The tournament committee wants competitive teams in the tournament. Anyone who has watched Syracuse play at least several times this year would know that they'd probably beat URI more often than not on a neutral court. I haven't seen it mentioned here lately but I think Davidson getting absolutely destroyed 2 years ago in the tournament hurt the A10 slightly. They won the league and had one of the worst losses among at large teams in recent history. Wasn't a good look for the a10 and I'm sure the tournament committee wants to avoid games like that one.
Here's how they did on the road or in neutral court games:
@ #3 Louisville - loss by 20
@ #4 UNC - loss by 17
@ #24 ND - loss by 18
N #33 SC - loss by 14
@ #38 Wisc - loss by 17
N #41 Miami - loss by 3
@ #45 VT - loss by 10
@ #67 Clem - WON BY 1 OMG!
@ #70 Pitt - loss by 15
@ #94 GT - loss by 6
@ #124 NCSU - WON BY 7
@ #211 BC - loss by 15
2-11, -127 point differential, average loss by 15, average win by 4. Best win against #67 by 1. Worst loss against #211 by 15.
That's not even CLOSE. They're a completely different team outside of the Carrier dome.
Nevermind the fact they got ROLLED at HOME by #133 St Johns. 33 points. THIRTY THREE.
To compare to say, URI, for instance:
N #13 Cinci - Win by 5
N #14 Duke - loss by 10
@ #21 Dayton - loss by 3
@ #50 Houston - loss by 5
@ #52 PC - loss by 3
@ #57 Valpo - loss by 3
@ #85 Rich - loss by 11
@ #106 Davidson - win by 11
@ #109 GMU - win by 3
@ #126 La Salle - win by 11
@ #189 UMass - win by 18
@ #190 SJU - win by 19
@ #243 SLU - win by 34
@ #244 Duq - win by 21
8-6 with at least one other neutral game to go. +87 point differential, average win by 15, average loss by 5. Best win #13 by 5. Worst loss #85 by 11.
Worst loss of the season? 12 points at home by #126 La Salle. A team who they then went and beat on the road by 11.
Want to keep it to just neutral? Cuse is 0-2 to #33 and #120, losses by 14 and 2. URI is 1-1 - beat #13 by 5, lost to #14 by 10. Seems like Rhody would have the edge in a neutral court too.
Don't even mention anything about being "competitive" this season. Unless they're getting a home game at the carrier dome for every round, nothing about the above resembles "competitive."
You could maybe say..yeah URI played more games against lower ranked competition..to which I would say you still got your asses kicked by Boston College. I could turn around and say if we were handed 7 top 50 home games on our schedule we probably win most of them too.
If you really want to look at who cuse is away from home, compare them to who they had home and home's with:
beat Miami by 15 at home. Lost to them by 3 in a must win situation on a neutral floor a few hours from campus. Beat Pitt at home by 11, lost to them by 5 on the road. Beat GT by 29 at home. Lost to them by 6 on the road. Beat BC by 23 at home, lost by 15 on the road.
Not even close to the same team. Not NCAA worthy.
In response to your Syracuse "probably" beating URI more often than not on a neutral floor - I'm going to go with Rhody wins 7 out of 10, all 3 losses coming by less than 10 points, 3 wins by more than 15.
Maybe I should say this this, Syracuse playing at they're best are better than URI at our best. It's close, but I still think Syracuse is better. If you're going with consistency then URI is the more consistent team. If you're going with who has a better chance to make a run in the tournament, I still think it's Cuse.
Either way I don't think Syracuse will be the reason URI doesn't make the tournament and people should stop getting so damn upset about them. If we win our next two games then we're most likely in. If we don't win our next two games then people can bitch about ACC teams all they want but we don't deserve to be in.
hope it doesn't come to that, lets knock dayton out and be done with that damn team.rambone 78 wrote:We are now in the field on the bracket matrix by a hair over Ill. St.........but we REALLY need Kansas St. to lose to Baylor tomorrow.
If so, a window is opening where we could possibly sneak in with just 1 win this weekend....not saying it will happen but the possibility could exist....
2 wins with a K St. loss, and we are looking much better, and could even jump X, Syracuse, and PC if they all end up losing early......
and Syracuse is loss #1......
I kind of wish they were forced to do this every year anyway, haha. I think the publication of baseball HoF ballots has made that process a lot better, so I'm generally in favor of expanding it to votes and committees in other sports.ACCSKS wrote:Friar fan here. But if Syracuse gets in over URI, depending A10 tourney outcomes, that's BS. And the committee should be forced into uncovering the decision making process, in depth.
Just confirms where we are going to live on Sunday at 6PM unless we win the shiny trophy earlier in the afternoon. Squarely as the most bubble of bubble teams with a coin flip chance either wayadam914 wrote:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on ... ry-twitter
Mike L. mentioned to me at the show Monday night that there could be one and possibly at the Mews......that's if we at least win on Friday......section(105) wrote:......OK; I will be that guy.....any known gatherings at local bar(s) for watching the CBS Selection a Show.....??
ATPTourFan wrote:God I hate Boeheim