A10 Bracketology (and others)

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

I know this has been discussed in a few placed but thought I'd make it's own thread.

Right now it looks like 5 teams is close to locked in (SLU, VCU, SJU, GW, UMass), 6 bids is now alive thanks to Dayton's back to back wins over UMass and SLU

As for URI opponents it appears that a few will be playing in March.
-Arizona is a lock and most likely a 1 seed
-SMU will be in as well most likely around the 8/9 line
-Southern Miss most likely has to win the CUSA but a trip to the finals may give them an at large chance
-PC is squarely on the bubble currently
-Davidson (A10 new comer next year) is the favorite in the Southern Conference

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 10 years ago

6 bids definitely looks in play now.

If Dayton beats Richmond at home Saturday, which looks pretty likely, they might be in.

Of course we could be the team standing in their way of cementing a bid next Thursday. Depends on what Duquesne does on Saturday.

I hope the Dukes lose. Richmond looks like a good chance for a win for us. The way Dayton is playing right now, that's going to be tough if we draw them.

Does VCU have a shot at the 2 seed now? Hope so.

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 10 years ago

If Dayton sneaks in PC could be the odd team out.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 10 years ago

PC came within an eyelash of going bye-bye last night.

I still think they have to win at Creighton on Saturday, or else make a deep run in their tournament.

They have basically NO road wins of importance. Their RPI is 63. Dayton's is now 43.

The committee will look at that lack of road wins, and kiss them goodbye.

Sorry, Bryce. You deserved better.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

I think PC needs 2/3 wins depending on what happens with the bubble (bid stealers, wins, losses)

seanmc94 · Unread post by **seanmc94** » 10 years ago

rambone 78 wrote:PC came within an eyelash of going bye-bye last night.

I still think they have to win at Creighton on Saturday, or else make a deep run in their tournament.

They have basically NO road wins of importance. Their RPI is 63. Dayton's is now 43.

The committee will look at that lack of road wins, and kiss them goodbye.

Sorry, Bryce. You deserved better.

Your math is way off. PC and Dayton are almost identical on rpi. Dayton will be an interesting team to watch on selection Sunday. They have all the math in their favor, but they don't pass the eyeball test.
Kind of like Gtown. Another bubble team that defies logic is Minnesota . They are going to finish 8-10 in conference. How are they in the duscussion?

I think PC needs one more victory to dance. Don't think it's happening at creighton.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

sean, I really think pc needs 2 a win in the 4/5 or 3/6 isn't going to do it

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 10 years ago

Sean, what site are you looking at that shows Dayton and PC "almost identical" in RPI? RPIforecast/Live-RPI.com show about a 10 position spread in Dayton's favor. Just curious to your source or reasoning.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 10 years ago

ATPTourFan wrote:Sean, what site are you looking at that shows Dayton and PC "almost identical" in RPI? RPIforecast/Live-RPI.com show about a 10 position spread in Dayton's favor. Just curious to your source or reasoning.

It must be that eye-test application that Sean was referring to. It is where you look only at only what you want and avert all eye contact on anything that runs counter to your belief.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 10 years ago

Per RPI LIve

Dayton (UD) vs PC

RPI: UD: #43 PC: #52
RPI SOS: UD: #55 PC: #61
Record: UD: 21-9 PC: 20-10
Vs RPI Top 25: UD: 3-3 PC: 1-4
Vs Top RPI 26-50: UD: 1-3 PC: 1-1
Vs Top RPI 51-100: UD: 3-1 PC: 5-4
Notable Wins: UD: Gonzaga, Cal, GW, UMass, St Louis PC: Georgetown, Creighton, Xavier, St John's

seanmc94 · Unread post by **seanmc94** » 10 years ago

I was using the compare teams feature on cbs sports. Had their rpis percentage points apart.
Speaking of looking only at what you want to see; I notice you left off Dayton's stellar record vs teams out of the top 100.

By eyeball test; I mean what does watching then play tell you?
IMHO, tourney teams don't get buried in crunch time. Just like Gtown.

Gonebarongone · Unread post by **Gonebarongone** » 10 years ago

When you get to the bubble, all teams have warts. We have now entered the "must finish strong" portion of the schedule. None can be one and done in conference tourneys and also hope that there are no bid thieves in multiple bid conferences.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 10 years ago

Yeah its pretty amazing how much can still change over the next week and a half.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 10 years ago

seanmc94 wrote:I was using the compare teams feature on cbs sports. Had their rpis percentage points apart.
Speaking of looking only at what you want to see; I notice you left off Dayton's stellar record vs teams out of the top 100.

By eyeball test; I mean what does watching then play tell you?
IMHO, tourney teams don't get buried in crunch time. Just like Gtown.

IMO good wins are weighted more heavily than bad losses in the mind of the committee...in the course of 30 games almost every team is going to have a bad loss or two or even three. PC has nothing on their resume like UDs Gonzaga and Cal wins. Those will loom large come selection Sunday. If we do face Dayton in Brooklyn we can be sure our Friar friends will be bleeding Rhody blue that day.

seanmc94 · Unread post by **seanmc94** » 10 years ago

Gonzaga and Cal?

How about Xavier, SJU and G'town?

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 10 years ago

I wouldn't count Cal as a hugely impressive win, but Gonzaga is certainly stronger than Xavier, SJU, or G'Town. PC also lost to all three of those teams more recently than they beat them (they actually lost to all of them in a span of 6 days, Feb 4th-10th)

Unread post by **SGreenwell** » 10 years ago

Gonebarongone wrote:When you get to the bubble, all teams have warts. We have now entered the "must finish strong" portion of the schedule. None can be one and done in conference tourneys and also hope that there are no bid thieves in multiple bid conferences.

Agree with this. I will also support Sean on something - a 10-position gap in RPI isn't all that significant, given that there are around 300 teams playing Division I basketball. It's essentially a 3.3 percent difference in terms of the strict ranking, and the actual disparity between positions can be minimal when you actually look at the RPI rating.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

PC is 3-5 vs tournament teams (wins over Creighton, Xavier and Vermont)
Dayton is 6-1 vs tournament teams (wins over Iona, GW, UMass, SLU, Gonzaga, California)

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

I would have to imagine that in 5 years, we won't be talking about RPI, but metrics that actually have significant meaning.

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

like what rj? I think the best would be home and road/neutral records

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 10 years ago

Cal beat Arizona, which is more impressive than all of those PC wins combined, in addition to a then ranked 17th Oregon. PCs best wins besides Creighton are against bubble NCAA teams, most of whom will likely wind up in the NIT (Gtown, SJU, Marquette). Even Xavier, who is in, is in a down year so beating them at home is a good but not great win. Cal pretty much sits even with Gtown in all metrics and I can guarantee that Zona win will carry much more weight than any of their bad losses. Not saying they get in, they likely wont without a run through the Pac 12 tourney but if you are even mentioning Gtown in the same sentence as NCAA you can put Cal right there with them. As far as Gonzaga they are 8-4 against the Top 100 with a BPI of 28, case closed.

Iggy1979 · Unread post by **Iggy1979** » 10 years ago

Jerry Palm:
A10: St. Louis (6), VCU (7), UMass (7), GW (8), St. Joe's (10), Dayton (11)
BE: Villanova (1), Creighton (4), Xavier (11) and PC (12).

Sweep The Leg · Unread post by **Sweep The Leg** » 10 years ago

So much can happen from now to Selection Sunday. If a last-four-in team loses this weekend, they are the first four or next four out. And the amount of at-large bids always is always overestimated because teams not at-large worthy or bubble teams win their conference tournaments every year which eliminates at-large spots.

Perfect scenario would be for Rhody to go on an unbelievable run and win the A-10 tournament, get to the dance and have PC be the first team out.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 10 years ago

STL that thought has been in my mind and I thought about posting it all day. Ultimate rivalry diss it would be.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 10 years ago

FWIW, everyone knows how I feel about Providence College, but I think they are very close to having played themselves in over the last month or so. And I actually want them to get in, I think. Then I want to beat them in the Dunk next December. Would be good for us.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 10 years ago

Yes,yes, no, yes.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

twisted3829 wrote:like what rj?

You are going to regret that

What I would do is BCS the whole process, similar to what college hockey is. What College Hockey uses is Pairwise, which is an RPI based system that seeds all 50+ D1 teams. At the end of the year, teams are slotted based on their seeding, the only difference being conference winners not in the Top 16 get slotted in at the bottom.

However, college hockey does not have modern strength metrics. What I would do is utilize the 10 major basketball metrics, give them each 10% of the pie, and let them calculate. The "10" would be BPI, KenPom, Sagarin, Wilson, Massey, TeamRankings, WOBUS, F.A.C.T., Wolfe, and Colley (or some combination of). I would let them determine the tournament not just based on where a team won, but by whatever makes their system tick: Roster composition, margin of victory, etc. The only time a committee would be used is to determine location.

In the end, I want the best teams at the end of the season in the tournament. A team like Cal who is getting clocked by 20+ points frequently, they are freefalling in metrics... But not the RPI! That's my problem with it. That's why I would like the strength of the team to be measured.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 10 years ago

Yes Cal has lost 3 games of late by large margins, but I am of the mindset that the whole season should be taken into consideration, not how you played in the last 2 weeks in a vaccuum. I dont watch them enough to know if maybe someone is hurt, or something else is going on b/c those lopsided losses are a recent occurrence.

That said, they have beaten Arizona (1), Oregon (20), Arkansas (33) and Stanford (38) against your Creighton (14) and Xavier (50). I think PC should be a tourney team, but only based on the eye test. By the numbers you don't have a good resume unless you over inflate the quality of teams like Xavier, SJU, Marquette and Gtown, who over the course of 30 games all proved to be just decent teams.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 10 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote:
twisted3829 wrote:like what rj?
You are going to regret that

What I would do is BCS the whole process, similar to what college hockey is. What College Hockey uses is Pairwise, which is an RPI based system that seeds all 50+ D1 teams. At the end of the year, teams are slotted based on their seeding, the only difference being conference winners not in the Top 16 get slotted in at the bottom.

However, college hockey does not have modern strength metrics. What I would do is utilize the 10 major basketball metrics, give them each 10% of the pie, and let them calculate. The "10" would be BPI, KenPom, Sagarin, Wilson, Massey, TeamRankings, WOBUS, F.A.C.T., Wolfe, and Colley (or some combination of). I would let them determine the tournament not just based on where a team won, but by whatever makes their system tick: Roster composition, margin of victory, etc. The only time a committee would be used is to determine location.

In the end, I want the best teams at the end of the season in the tournament. A team like Cal who is getting clocked by 20+ points frequently, they are freefalling in metrics... But not the RPI! That's my problem with it. That's why I would like the strength of the team to be measured.

Very cool idea, RJ. Thx for sharing. Are there any sites today that do attempt to provide some kind of RankingMatrix (like BracketMatrix sites) where they harvest the 1-340 D1 hoops teams absolute ranking from each and then give equal weight to each of those sources?

Could you do a top 50 just for fun then share the results and the XLS file?

BFC · Unread post by **BFC** » 10 years ago

And maybe we haven't won the PR battle but I do know this: I coached in the A-10. And I coach in the Big East now. And I'm telling you right now, Georgetown would be a Top 2 or 3 team in the Atlantic 10. And it's not even close.

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/blogs/2 ... t/6149219/

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 10 years ago

Interesting to hear a coach so candid about specifics, normally when speaking about teams/conferences other than their own the coaches are more general and open-ended.

Just basic spit-balling that happens this time of year from coaches trying to make themselves/their team/conference look better. That said, Chris Mack can take his opinion and stick it where it belongs

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 10 years ago

What a cry-baby. The A-10 seemed to be plenty good enough for 20 years. I guess all that cash from the idiots at Fox is not enough. These new Catholic Big East coaches and fans want it all with no one else getting anything. Perhaps if his team had beaten Seton Hall and his conference mates had done better in OOC, he and his fellow new Catholic Big East schools wouldn't be in this position. When one of your supposed better teams best OOC wins is over a team like Vermont, you would expect few NCAA locks. Very low class comments by a coach to belittle his old conference.

BFC · Unread post by **BFC** » 10 years ago

I like how it blames it on PR, because the A-10 is known for its PR machine. If Georgetown is so good they should have been willing to show it in out of conference play. They played 1 true out of conference road game, one. They did themselves and their league a disservice.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 10 years ago

Mack is getting ripped a new one on the Dayton board, the A10 board, everywhere.

Dayton fans are almost all in agreement that they want to stay in the A10 now.

Mack is just trying to make a case for the BE bubble teams over the A10's, but it's not going to work.

Classless move. Good riddance to them. [But we'll take your NCAA credits, thank you]

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

Hey ATP,

There actually is a site, it's sort of low key, but it averages out the rankings as they are relayed from Massey on his ratings comparative page.

They are as of March 2nd so obviously some things have changed...This link takes you to the Superlist:

http://wilson.engr.wisc.edu/superlist/bb/

This to the ratings comparative page:

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

And BAR:

My problem with the RPI is it's overall simplicity ... In theory, there are 4 outcomes to any game:

Good Win: Play Well/Beat a Good Team
Sloppy Win: Play Poorly/Struggle Against a Bad Team
Good Loss: Play Well/Lose to a Good Team
Sloppy Loss: Play Bad/Lose to a Bad Team

*Those don't necessarily go together.

RPI also only takes into account the average of a team. In theory, a team could exceed their average play in any given night, or play poorly in comparison to their average. URI is a perfect example of this. On average over the course of this season, they are ranked in the 120 range. However, at times over the past month, they have had games at home where they play like a Top 75 team, thus making them a harder matchup. RPI does not take this into account, strength metrics at least attempt to. RPI in turn will say "What a bad loss!" KenPom may say "You played well but that was a tough matchup given how they have been playing at home. You may slip a tiny bit or stay the same, but it was still a good showing."

Of course there is no perfect metric, which is why I wouldn't want to give too much power to one individual metric, but give 10 or so a small piece in solving the puzzle.

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 10 years ago

Yep, completely agree that Mack is out of his mind. Usually Xavier doesn't have to get into this type of begging for attention and consideration. I remember when they consistently earned their place into the NCAA tournament.

RJ, thanks for the links.

RF1 · Unread post by **RF1** » 10 years ago

In the words of an idiot and often condescending poster from CT on the Friars Board:

Look no further than what has happened to X when they joined the BE to compare the BE to the A-10. Comparison is silly.

Yes. Xavier came in 7th last year in the Atlantic-10. They are 3rd in the new Catholic Big East this season. The comparison is silly. The A-10 is stronger at the top and the # of NCAA bids will bear that out.

sf2010 · Unread post by **sf2010** » 10 years ago

RF1 +10

Unread post by **ATPTourFan** » 10 years ago

sf2010 wrote:RF1 +10

RF1 +10e10 !!

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 10 years ago

Wow seriously Mack...what an act of desperation.

edrick · Unread post by **edrick** » 10 years ago

What did Mack say that wasn't true? He just said the obvious, which most coaches do not.

The Big East is the 3rd rated conference in the country. The A10 is 8th. He isn't saying anything bad about 8th-level competition, just that its not comparable to 3rd-level competition. Would you have a problem with George Mason saying something similar about the difference between the CAA? The gap is fairly close to the same. See below.

Hell, St Johns which you probably havent even heard too much about has virtually the same Pomeroy as Saint Louis. Just too different ball games

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sa ... onference/

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

that's cherry picking 1 statistical website to use

In RPI BE is 4th, A10 is 6th (0.001 out of 5th), 6 A10 teams have won 20 games to 4 BE teams

in reality Dayton and Xavier have very similar resumes (see here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... TON/XAVIER)

Xavier is 3rd in the BE, Dayton is 6th in the A10

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 10 years ago

3rd best conference = 3 bids
8th best conference = 6 bids

Guess we are glad to be in the 8th best conference

steviep123 · Unread post by **steviep123** » 10 years ago

Mack is definitely off his rocker if he truly believes that. I first saw the quotes when KMac retweeted it. I responded saying something like, "Looks like the BE disdain for the A10 continues". He replied, that it was a simple rivalry but he agreed with Mack. Not sure how he could. Other replies to KMac or the original tweet from the Xavier reporter were mainly in disagreement with Mack's assessment. Even KMac admitted that they should be trying to get in on their own merits, not comparing to the A10.

In my opinion, I don't think Xavier or Gtown would do better than 5th or 6th in the A10 this year. That said, you never know what would happen because they are not in our league.

I need to get over this. I was furious when I read the comments initially and 13 hours later, I'm still just as pissed!

twisted3829 · Unread post by **twisted3829** » 10 years ago

it was a cheap shot at the conference that built Xavier to what they are today, also KMac is a big east/PC writer his opinion is bias. He called the A10 this year's RPI darling earlier this week

BFC · Unread post by **BFC** » 10 years ago

Maybe Mack & KMac are assuming Georgetown would be in the A10 under the condition that they never have to play on the road. Georgetown is 2-6 in opponents' buildings, their 2 wins are Butler (RPI 143) & DePaul (RPI 146), but its the A10 PR Machine keeping them out.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 10 years ago

Maybe we should see if Georgetown and Marquette want to join the A10. We can offer them more at large bids than the league they are in.

adam914 · Unread post by **adam914** » 10 years ago

edrick wrote:What did Mack say that wasn't true? He just said the obvious, which most coaches do not.

The Big East is the 3rd rated conference in the country. The A10 is 8th. He isn't saying anything bad about 8th-level competition, just that its not comparable to 3rd-level competition. Would you have a problem with George Mason saying something similar about the difference between the CAA? The gap is fairly close to the same. See below.

Hell, St Johns which you probably havent even heard too much about has virtually the same Pomeroy as Saint Louis. Just too different ball games

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/2014/conference/

Nice effort, but no.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 10 years ago

edrick wrote:What did Mack say that wasn't true? He just said the obvious, which most coaches do not.

The Big East is the 3rd rated conference in the country. The A10 is 8th. He isn't saying anything bad about 8th-level competition, just that its not comparable to 3rd-level competition. Would you have a problem with George Mason saying something similar about the difference between the CAA? The gap is fairly close to the same. See below.

Hell, St Johns which you probably havent even heard too much about has virtually the same Pomeroy as Saint Louis. Just too different ball games

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/2014/conference/

HAHA, thanks for today's laugh and proving the value of a Friar education.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 10 years ago

It all comes down to the same basic principle. If the A-10 wants the respect people give the BE, it isn't given because of one or two good years. It's earned over the course of 10+ years. Even though the Big East is nothing like what it was, the schools that remain -- many of them have earned their reputation that carries the conference today. As I've always said, that doesn't mean things can't change, but one year proves nothing. The A10 still needs 3 great years to become true "equals" with the reputation the BE has built. If that happens, then there will be no more snubbing. But the reality of the situation is that the top 9 in the Big East have been significantly stronger than their A10 counterparts over the past decade, fact not opinion. And trust me, I'm a lot less of a BE snob that most others, they are certainly closer than they were for many, many years, and the gap has really been seen over the last 2 seasons.

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