A10 Outlook for 21-22

[RhodyKyle]

St. Louis odds of winning the A10 Regular Season Crown took a fairly big hit in Vegas following the Perkins injury news. St. Louis had the 4th best odds but have now been dropped to 7th.

FWIW, this is how Vegas see's the A10 Regular Season going:

St. Bona -125
Richmond +280
VCU +950
Davidson +1400
Dayton +1700
Rhode Island +1700
Saint Louis +3500
George Mason +4200
Duquesne +4200
UMass +5000
GWU +13000
LaSalle +21000
St. Joe's +37000
Fordham +50000

With a win tomorrow, Davidson +1400 will cash.

Wow STC. How much per dollar is the win?

14/1

[STC]

Here are the odds to win the A10 Conference Tournament:

Davidson +330
Dayton +360
VCU +380
St. Bonaventure +550
St. Louis +600
Richmond +950
George Mason +1500
Fordham +10000
Rhode Island +10000
UMass +12000
GWU +25000
LaSalle +30000
St. Joseph's +30000
Duquesne +50000

Vegas seems to see the A10 Tournament as fairly wide open amongst the top teams.

[reef]

With a win tomorrow, Davidson +1400 will cash.

Wow STC. How much per dollar is the win?

14/1

Or VCU @ +950 nice payout as well if not Davidson

[NHRamFan]

Here are the odds to win the A10 Conference Tournament:

Davidson +330
Dayton +360
VCU +380
St. Bonaventure +550
St. Louis +600
Richmond +950
George Mason +1500
Fordham +10000
Rhode Island +10000
UMass +12000
GWU +25000
LaSalle +30000
St. Joseph's +30000
Duquesne +50000

Vegas seems to see the A10 Tournament as fairly wide open amongst the top teams.

"So you're saying there's a chance?!?" (Appropriate Dumb and Dumber quote.)

[steveystuds06]

https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-colleg ... tball-poll

Bama is now 10th in the country.

Davidson can beat Alabama but that won't change the weak NET rankings for the A10. Davidson will be playing teams ranked in the 100's and 200's. This will hurt Davidson's own NET.

Great if Davidson beats Alabama but with the weak A10 odds are Davidson will still need to win the A10 Tournament just like all. Weak A10 this year which makes the path simple. Win out in DC in March.

Not true. Beating a top 15 team changes things. The committee does not solely look at NET Rankings. It's vital but it's not the only factor...

Potential Quad 1 games- Bama and @VCU*

Potential Quad 2 games- @VCU, @Richmond, VCU*, @Bonnies, @URI, St Louis, @Dayton

VCU is very close to being a Quad 1 or Quad 2 team on the road and Quad 2 or Quad 3 at home... I think they will only get better with Baldwin back.

Drake's NET last season- 43
Quad 1- 1-3
Quad 2- 6-0
Quad 3- 6-2
Quad 4- 11-0

Drake's only quad one win was against Loyola at home. Beating Bama would be a much better win than that..

I still see a road for Davidson.
1.Beat Bama,
2. Go 6-1 in those Quad 2 games
3. No Quad 4 losses
4. Make the finals of the A10 tournament.

Bumping this. I'm very interested to see if I was right! It would be great for the league if the A10 gets 2 bids.

[reef]

Yup 2 bids Davidson definitely deserves an at large

[R.Kelly150]

This has seemed to happen so many times for the A-10 back to the days of Temple and Xavier. Good for the league! I guess it still has to play out with the final selection but Davidson deserves a spot and it shouldn’t be negated just because another A10 team won the automatic bid. I don’t care how they get there but the A10 is still a multi bid league and that means something.

[Rhodymob05]

In reality, the A10 has 3-4 NCAA quality teams this year. If just two get in, that’s okay for a “down season”.

[Jersey77]

In reality, the A10 has 3-4 NCAA quality teams this year. If just two get in, that’s okay for a “down season”.

Actually, I count 6 quality teams.
They may have 4 NIT bids.

[reef]

It’s usually cyclical the league is down now but things can improve in a couple years to get 3 in

[luke]

True , Reef . Dayton is going to be a monster team going forward . Others may emerge quickly as well . Even Fordham made strides this season.

[reef]

True , Reef . Dayton is going to be a monster team going forward . Others may emerge quickly as well . Even Fordham made strides this season.

Yup I think Dayton going to be the team to beat going forward they have some good young kids

[rambone 78]

The top 6 A10 teams were way better than the rest of the league.

Big separation.

URI= dregs

When you're looking up at Fordham, that's all you need to know.

[KingstonLane]

Some really bold projections being made in this thread.

Dayton could be a good team? The same Dayton who was just the #1 team in the country? No kidding!

[Jersey77]

True , Reef . Dayton is going to be a monster team going forward . Others may emerge quickly as well . Even Fordham made strides this season.

Yup I think Dayton going to be the team to beat going forward they have some good young kids

How about VCU who is also very young.
Plus SLU, they can return all their starters including Perkins who was a medical RS.

[rambone 78]

We have to get back into the mix as a top A10 program.

And not take 3-4 more years to get there.

That's why there will be no more "experiments" hired here.

[steveystuds06]

2 bids for the A10!!!!!

[steveystuds06]

Wow Dayton was the first team out.

[reef]

Wow Dayton was the first team out.

Yup Committee chair just said Richmond bumped Dayton so A10 had 2 in regardless and congrats to Stevie who had it all along

[RIFan]

Did you all just see the Marriott commercial with Rhody!

[steviep123]

Did you all just see the Marriott commercial with Rhody!

On the selection show?

[RIFan]

Yes, I took a picture with my phone but the file is too big to upload…suggestions? They had the VCU, NC and Rhody rams along with other mascots in a group therapy session and the guy mentions Rhody.

[ace]

Is it my personal tradition to look for this tweet every year at the end of the A10 tournament? Yes, it is.

[steviep123]

Is it my personal tradition to look for this tweet every year at the end of the A10 tournament? Yes, it is.

One of my faves!

[reef]

Is it my personal tradition to look for this tweet every year at the end of the A10 tournament? Yes, it is.

One of my faves!

Ugh how long is it gonna take to get us back to that ??

[steveystuds06]

Wow Dayton was the first team out.

Yup Committee chair just said Richmond bumped Dayton so A10 had 2 in regardless and congrats to Stevie who had it all along

Thanks Reef!

[ace]

Final rankings for conferences from KenPom. People can complain all they want about who gets into the tournament, but the A10, as a conference, needs to do better. Being outside the top 10 is a rough look.

Big 12
SEC
Big Ten
Big East
Pac-12
ACC
Mountain West
American
West Coast Conference
Missouri Valley Conference
Atlantic 10

[Rhodymob05]

The Missouri valley sucks. You sure that’s right?

[KingstonLane]

Final rankings for conferences from KenPom. People can complain all they want about who gets into the tournament, but the A10, as a conference, needs to do better. Being outside the top 10 is a rough look.

Big 12
SEC
Big Ten
Big East
Pac-12
ACC
Mountain West
American
West Coast Conference
Missouri Valley Conference
Atlantic 10

I’m sure this is correct (assuming you pulled directly from Kenpom), but I prefer to count # of good teams metric is heavily skewed by outliers. For example Houston makes American look way better than they are.

# of Top 90 Kenpom teams:
Atlantic 10 - 6
Missouri Valley Conference - 3 (best of which is joining rhe A10)
American - 3

[ace]

The Missouri valley sucks. You sure that’s right?

If they suck, then the A10 sucks more. Getting Loyola hopefully flips that moving forward.

Sure, you can pick and choose and leave out who you want, but the conference is the conference, and the A10, as a whole, was not good. That’s who they’re playing for the majority of their games. URI needs to be better, so they at least have the advantage of playing the better teams twice.

Top 90 seems kind of arbitrary. The American had 5/11 in the top 100 and one team lower than 200. The A10 had 6/14 in the top 100 and 3 below 200. MVC had 5/10 in the top 100 and 2 below 200.

[KingstonLane]

The Missouri valley sucks. You sure that’s right?

If they suck, then the A10 sucks more. Getting Loyola hopefully flips that moving forward.

Sure, you can pick and choose and leave out who you want, but the conference is the conference, and the A10, as a whole, was not good. That’s who they’re playing for the majority of their games. URI needs to be better, so they at least have the advantage of playing the better teams twice.

Top 90 seems kind of arbitrary. The American had 5/11 in the top 100 and one team lower than 200. The A10 had 6/14 in the top 100 and 3 below 200. MVC had 5/10 in the top 100 and 2 below 200.

Yes 90 was definitely arbitrary, but have to draw a line in the sand somewhere.

My point is American and MVC for example are heavily skewed to the upside by their best team or two. Now that of course matters, but a team in that conference only plays them once, maybe twice. A10 has a larger quantity of relevant teams. And that’s even during a down year.

[Jersey77]

Final rankings for conferences from KenPom. People can complain all they want about who gets into the tournament, but the A10, as a conference, needs to do better. Being outside the top 10 is a rough look.

Big 12
SEC
Big Ten
Big East
Pac-12
ACC
Mountain West
American
West Coast Conference
Missouri Valley Conference
Atlantic 10

I’m sure this is correct (assuming you pulled directly from Kenpom), but I prefer to count # of good teams metric is heavily skewed by outliers. For example Houston makes American look way better than they are.

# of Top 90 Kenpom teams:
Atlantic 10 - 6
Missouri Valley Conference - 3 (best of which is joining rhe A10)
American - 3

As far as being compared to the MVC most insiders and analysts rate us above them.
We are in the top 10 again, regardless of KenPom.

The A10 has 2 teams in the NCAAT and 4 in the NIT.
The MVC has 1 team in the NCAAT and 2 in the NIT.

Dayton finished a very strong bubble team and in my opinion was more deserving then Indiana.
Don't like to bring up injuries but SLU losing conference POY candidate Perkins definitely hurt their chances.
They still finished a respectable 23-11 (12-6).

Also, Loyola/Chicago is jumping ship from the MVC to the A10. (the lone MVC NCAAT team)
The MVC is adding Murray State and Belmont, which should help compensate for the loss.

[Jersey77]

Final rankings for conferences from KenPom. People can complain all they want about who gets into the tournament, but the A10, as a conference, needs to do better. Being outside the top 10 is a rough look.

Big 12
SEC
Big Ten
Big East
Pac-12
ACC
Mountain West
American
West Coast Conference
Missouri Valley Conference
Atlantic 10

I’m sure this is correct (assuming you pulled directly from Kenpom), but I prefer to count # of good teams metric is heavily skewed by outliers. For example Houston makes American look way better than they are.

# of Top 90 Kenpom teams:
Atlantic 10 - 6
Missouri Valley Conference - 3 (best of which is joining rhe A10)
American - 3

As far as being compared to the MVC most insiders and analysts rate us above them.
We are in the top 10 again, regardless of KenPom.

The A10 has 2 teams in the NCAAT and 4 in the NIT.
The MVC has 1 team in the NCAAT and 2 in the NIT.

Dayton finished a very strong bubble team and in my opinion was more deserving then Indiana.
Don't like to bring up injuries but SLU losing conference POY candidate Perkins definitely hurt their chances.
They still finished a respectable 23-11 (12-6).

Also, Loyola/Chicago is jumping ship from the MVC to the A10. (the lone MVC NCAAT team)
The MVC is adding Murray State and Belmont, which should help compensate for the loss.

In addition the A10 probably surpassed the AAC or will be in the near future.

This year like the A10 they have 2 teams in the NCAAT and only 1 in the NIT versus our 4.
Also, in 2023 they lose Houston, Cincy, and UCF.

[SGreenwell]

I kind of like the Atlantic 10's upside going forward, at least as far as a mid-major conference goes and compared to the American, which is losing a bunch of quality teams. But I can also acknowledge that this fanbase spent most of the year worrying that it was a one-bid league, before Dayton and Richmond solidified themselves in the conference tournament. I kind of think that this is how it's going to be for the next couple of years, and it's in line with the past results as well. The A-10 will get 2 or 3 bids most years, and in some outlier bad and good years, that number will be 1, or 4 or 5.

[URI_05]

I think the A-10 would need to be constructed differently to bring back 3+ bids on a regular basis. It's far too bottom heavy. You almost need to start a new conference with 8-10 schools without the Dusquenes and Fordhams to drag you down. Goal is to get to as many Q1 conference teams by time conference play starts and minimal to no Q3/Q4 teams in conference.

[rambone 78]

There's a better chance of forming an entirely new league, rather than the A10 dropping several schools.

And that's not a good chance either...but to me that would be way better than keeping the status quo.

[Jersey77]

There's a better chance of forming an entirely new league, rather than the A10 dropping several schools.

And that's not a good chance either...but to me that would be way better than keeping the status quo.

Neither will happen (at least in the near future), so at this point would like the A10 to continue to add quality teams.

[URI2006_Andy]

A-10 Gold League - Top 8 in NET after non conference

A -10 Silver League - Bottom 7 in NET

A-10 Silver teams on one side of the A-10 tourney bracket, that way there is incentive to win the regular season Silver and get a bye and the conference would be 1 game away from an extra tournament bid.

[ace]

I kind of like the Atlantic 10's upside going forward, at least as far as a mid-major conference goes and compared to the American, which is losing a bunch of quality teams. But I can also acknowledge that this fanbase spent most of the year worrying that it was a one-bid league, before Dayton and Richmond solidified themselves in the conference tournament. I kind of think that this is how it's going to be for the next couple of years, and it's in line with the past results as well. The A-10 will get 2 or 3 bids most years, and in some outlier bad and good years, that number will be 1, or 4 or 5.

UAB, Texas-San Antonio, Rice, North Texas, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic

That’s what the American is adding. I admit that I could not care less about college football, but from a basketball perspective that is not great. North Texas and UAB are solid, that’s about it. The Atlantic 10 at least has a basketball identity and some rivalries that make sense.

[PeterRamTime]

I kind of like the Atlantic 10's upside going forward, at least as far as a mid-major conference goes and compared to the American, which is losing a bunch of quality teams. But I can also acknowledge that this fanbase spent most of the year worrying that it was a one-bid league, before Dayton and Richmond solidified themselves in the conference tournament. I kind of think that this is how it's going to be for the next couple of years, and it's in line with the past results as well. The A-10 will get 2 or 3 bids most years, and in some outlier bad and good years, that number will be 1, or 4 or 5.

UAB, Texas-San Antonio, Rice, North Texas, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic

That’s what the American is adding. I admit that I could not care less about college football, but from a basketball perspective that is not great. North Texas and UAB are solid, that’s about it. The Atlantic 10 at least has a basketball identity and some rivalries that make sense.

For football that doesn't really help them either lol that collection of teams is worse in football than they are in basketball.