New A10 - URI Basketball's Conference Future

[Obadiah]

Granted that Fox Sports gave the BE a lucrative contract and the BE wins on that point, but the new network will still have to compete with the ESPN brand which is still pretty powerful. No more Big East on Big Monday, for example. Ratings will ultimately be the swing factor.

[adam914]

Granted that Fox Sports gave the BE a lucrative contract and the BE wins on that point, but the new network will still have to compete with the ESPN brand which is still pretty powerful. No more Big East on Big Monday, for example. Ratings will ultimately be the swing factor.

I think this is a big point that some are ignoring. It seems that some just assume the new Fox Sports channel will be successful. I don't necessarily feel that is a certainty.

[bigappleram]

Where they are on the dial/dish/cable lineup is hugely important....if they are buried with other fox sports nets that will not be a good thing for ratings. agree with adam, ppl are discounting the brand power of ESPN over Fox in all sports, and certainly in college hoops. Ppl are also discounting the fact that PC vs Xavier is at huge hit vs PC/Syracuse. HUGE hit.

[rodfromcranston]

NBC has a sports channel. Ever watch it, unless the Bruins in the Stanley Cup were on?
CBS has a sports channel. Ever watch it?

[SmartyBarrett]

Unless there's a specific sporting event, nope.
That will be key for FS1 - getting the rights to games that people actually want to watch.

Come to think of it, I can't remember the last time I watched ESPN when it wasn't for a specific sporting event. I'm done with SportsCenter, First Take, and whatever other fluff garbage they throw on the air.

EDIT: Forgot about 30 for 30. That's worth it.

[adam914]

NBC has a sports channel. Ever watch it, unless the Bruins in the Stanley Cup were on?
CBS has a sports channel. Ever watch it?

Right, exactly my point.

[rjsuperfly66]

There are numerous reports out there that ESPN/Disney are likely going to have a problem on their hands in terms of competition. Deadspin just did a report yesterday about how ESPN ratings for primetime coverage is down something like 30% year to date and like 16% all-day coverage, and how Disney's stock has been downgraded some, largely in part due to the debut of Fox Sports 1. Obviously Fox Sports with just BE basketball and Pac-12 football can't make a huge dent by themselves, but what about other sports? What about the NBA contract up in 3 years? UFC is becoming a bigger draw by the day, which is also an underrated aspect of the FS1 signings.

The biggest concern is obviously ratings though. The PC one is an easy one because PC hasn't been very good over the past decade, but if they continue on this trajectory, they will be pushing as a team that fills up the arena at least 75% full on a nightly basis and has a lot of interest around the state, just like URI will. If both PC and Xavier are NCAA Tournament teams, then the game will draw decent. It won't be Syracuse/NCAA Tournament team great, but it will be better than Syracuse/PC.

And as for NBC/CBS sports networks, they do not have successful models set up which is why they will never become formidable. Regular season hockey isn't going to draw well, and neither does playoff hockey unless the games are between traditional hockey markets. European soccer isn't going to draw well. The Tour De France isn't going to draw well. Ivy League football isn't going to draw well. NBC's biggest fooball conference is the MWC (mediocre at best) and 2nd biggest is the IVY/CAA (pick your poison). Their biggest basketball is the MWC (who play most of their games at 9 or 10 at night due to location). CBS has occasional A-10 games and a whole bunch of nothing.

What made ESPN successful is the fact that it's a sports station you can put on at any time of the day, get original programming all day long, and get solid games at night. Your filler programs (First Take, Sports Center, Sports Nation) need to be entertaining, which is where they destroy NBC and CBS. If Fox Sports 1 (and subsequently 2) can do that, then they have a chance long-term. Fox has invested heavily into "personalities," another place where CBS and NBC have lacked (NBC finally bit the bullet and brought in Michelle Beadle to host a Sportsnation-type show; CBS has some of their football guys host a roundtable; combined together, great, but you need great on-air talent as well).

The biggest thing most people forget is that it isn't expected that college basketball will draw well, it just can't suck either. The money is in the advertising...

[RF1]

ESPN ratings are down due to outlet fragmentation. There are now just so many sports networks out there. This plethora of sports stations however will also hurt Fox. It will be very difficult for Fox Sports 1 to snag a large % of viewers and gain traction given all the options.

[bressler3south]

The history of Fox as a network, since its launch some 25 years ago, is that it is NOT afraid of tossing around money, regardless if it's for regular programming it's buying or for sports. Don't forget the NFL!!!!! Don't forget M.L.Baseball!!! Don't forget NASCAR!!!! It's a Rupert Murdoch-owned entity…..They'll do anything to make money -- which is the reason they're in business. People scoffed at the idea that there could ever be a fourth network to compete with NBC, CBS, or even ABC.
Now, there's 799 stations…..and nothing's on.
And to think: As a little boy, after waiting for the television tubes to warm-up, I'd sit in front of the set and stare at the Indian Chief test-pattern until Rex Trailer or some-such nonsense came on!

[bigappleram]

Disney stock being downgraded has nothing to do with the launch of Fox Sports 1, what a preposterous thing to say. Ratings are not where ESPN makes their money, its on carriage fees. i believe they charge the most or near the top of the charts for cable nets, they get a massive premium from the cable and satellite providers. Fox Sports wont come near that. ESPN got a 30+ year head start, I hardly doubt they are shaking in their boots that they will lose viewers to the Seton Hall vs Butler game. And fyi, european soccer is on Fox Sports, not NBC or CBS sports nets.

[rjsuperfly66]

BAR,

You are a little misinformed my friend.

#1 - Premier League just signed with NBC. The goal is to have every game air.

See this:

Acquired rights:
England - Premier League (2013-2016)
Live Multi-Platform Coverage of All 380 Matches. 154 matches on NBC Sports Network. Kick-off times (EST) for NBCSN: Saturday 7am and 10am matches, Sunday 8am and 11am NBCSN, Monday/midweek 2.30pm

So I guess I was incorrect in saying all European soccer, I meant English soccer.

#2 - This was the deadspin article from yesterday. Fox Sports 1 wasn't the only reason for the downgrade in stock, but it certainly played a role (I guess people will differ on how much of a role it played). Take whatever info from it you like...

ESPN may have grown into an unbeatable Goliath, as its executives spent the year telling any reporter who'd stand still long enough, but maybe the stretch marks are beginning to show. ESPN laid off hundreds two months ago, and in August it will face new competition in the form of Fox Sports 1, a network that has Goldman Sachs analysts warning folks to think twice about before buying Disney's stock. And today comes news that ESPN's ratings were significantly down from April to June this year.
Sports Business Daily reports that ESPN's primetime ratings dropped 32 percent this quarter over last year's. There is some explanation to the drop: Last year, ESPN carried the Heat-Celtics conference finals, a bigger draw than this year's Spurs sweep over the Grizzlies in the Western Conference finals.
But even with that caveat out of the way, the news for Bristol's advertising department isn't encouraging: ESPN's total-day ratings—that is, its average viewership over a 24-hour period—plunged 20 percent in the quarter over last year's numbers. That's the network's worst result in six years and the the biggest drop for any of the cable sports channels, on a percentage basis.
ESPN2's primetime ratings dropped 12 percent, and its total-day ratings fell to an average of 244,000 viewers a day, down from 268,000 in the same quarter last year, 266,000 the year before, and 306,000 in 2010.
In the first quarter of 2013? Ratings losses all around, again, for both ESPN and ESPN2.
What the hell? ESPN does do the lion's share of its ratings business in the second half of the year. That's when Monday Night Football kicks into gear, along with the college football season. But last year wasn't a banner year on that front, either: In 2012, ESPN and ESPN2 were down 2 and 8 percent for the year in ratings for total-day viewers, respectively. ESPN was flat in primetime ratings, and ESPN2 was down 12 percent.
All this has happened before the launch of Fox Sports 1, a network that may not challenge ESPN for sports-television supremacy but will at least be the nuisance to Bristol that NBC Sports Network hasn't become (worth noting: NBCSN saw gains all around in the second quarter). Late last month, Goldman Sachs downgraded ESPN's parent company Disney stock from a "conviction buy" to "neutral." The reason? Trouble on the ESPN front (Goldman estimates that ESPN accounts for 45 percent of all of Disney's operating income, which, Jesus Christ). We have a copy of the report. Here's an excerpt:
While we continue to view ESPN as a valuable, well-positioned asset over the long-term, in the near-term we are concerned about two issues that will likely overhang DIS. For reference, ESPN is Disney’s largest asset accounting for an estimated 45% of total company OI.

1) Rising competitive intensity: Fox Sports 1 will launch this August, with Fox Sports 2 to possibly follow shortly thereafter. Competition between FS1 and ESPN for sports rights will actually be limited because ESPN recently renewed most of its major contracts; the one exception is the NBA contract that expires after the 2015/16 season. However, FS1 will be competing for sports viewers and advertising dollars and this could hamper ESPN’s advertising growth. Admittedly, advertising accounts for only 25% of total revenue, but it carries a higher incremental margin and estimates could be put at risk.

2) Sports cost step-ups hamper OI growth, margins: New rights contracts for MLB, NFL Monday Night Football and the new BCS Championship will start in CY1Q14 and run through CY1Q15. As a result, we estimate Cable Network margins are likely to compress and Cable Network segment OI growth will slow from 12% in FY13E to 7% in FY14E and 4% in FY15E.

[rodfromcranston]

I think a lot of people are sick of ESPN's trying to manipulate the public opinion on so many fronts.
The Brett favre fiasco went on 24/7. The Tebow stuff, with endless coverage.
The unending celebration of all things Lebron James (even a multi part bio, airing nightly!)
The adulation of the Heat, as soon as Lebron joined the team.
Before him, it was Kobe 24/7.
The coronation of RGlll as savior of the universe.
The BCS lean in football, vs. Boise State and TCU.
The big conference worship in college basketball.
The nightly jamming European soccer highlights down everyone's throats. Their Top 10 Plays, now has
one third soccer plays. The scream out the names of players nobody knows or cares about, with the exception of
some soccer fans.
It's grown stale with the viewers.

[twisted3829]

I remember when Sportscenter actually showed all the highlights from the day before, now it's lets show the heat highlight then talk to 4 "experts" about what happened do some other highlights then go back and show the same heat highlights with the experts then the top 10 then repeat the same the next hour. Unless your team is one of the teams or is playing well you won't see your team's highlights. I've pretty much stopped watching sportscenter, if I want hockey highlights I go NHL Network, baseball is MLB network. The only good things sportscenter still does is the feel good stories like "Carry On" the other night

[adam914]

RJ the point I am trying to make though is that we just don't know. Your initial post on this page and the reports you mention deal in an awful lot of "what if" scenarios and speculation. Could they all become true, yeah of course, but everything would really have to go perfectly for all involved. There is just as much of a chance of it being a complete failure. The reality is it probably ends up falling somewhere in the middle. It'll be interesting to watch how it all shakes out.

[SmartyBarrett]

Figured this was a relevant piece to share.

http://deadspin.com/espns-ratings-are-w ... -722030528

[rjsuperfly66]

RJ the point I am trying to make though is that we just don't know. Your initial post on this page and the reports you mention deal in an awful lot of "what if" scenarios and speculation. Could they all become true, yeah of course, but everything would really have to go perfectly for all involved. There is just as much of a chance of it being a complete failure. The reality is it probably ends up falling somewhere in the middle. It'll be interesting to watch how it all shakes out.

You won't get any disagreements from me, Adam. Fox Sports 1 with UFC, Pac-12 Football, and Big East basketball is better positioned than both NBC and CBS, but what does that really mean? I would consider those 2 stations basic failures. Now, if Fox Sports makes a run and grabs the NBA rights right out from the nose of ESPN (which are the only big media rights up for grabs in the next 5 years), I think that is the only way they come close to truly rivaling ESPN. The NBA with LeBron, Kobe, etc. has become like a binky to ESPN. Otherwise, the goal has to be to just do good enough over the next 10 years to be in a financial position to chase after the ACC or Big 10 rights. I think Fox can survive (see Fox News becoming as popular as it has; not that I agree with their policies), it's just a matter of how intriguing they can become for other conferences/sports. Now if they are willing to overpay like they have with the Big East, anything is possible, but there is a big difference paying $4 million per year for a conference and then turning around to a bigger conference like the Big 10 or even the NBA and having to pay well over $40 million annually.

[adam914]

Yeah definitely, if they are willing to make that much of a financial commitment to truly rival ESPN for those big contracts/rights, then sure people will watch it. When it comes down to it I don't think people really care what channel they are watching, its all about content.

I always kind of felt that with NBC and CBS Sports Networks, while they seemed like a decent idea, are both just kind of half-ass attempts. So it remains to be seen if the new Fox Network follows them or learns from their mistakes.

[bigappleram]

TV ratings are down across the board. Many in the younger generation don't even watch TV between their phones and tablets and on-demand services. I have many friends who exclusively use Apple TV, Hulu, etc for all of their tv viewing. It will catch up to all the networks at a certain point. And regardless if ESPN is having a tough year, they are basically a monopoly in the sports entertainment business, with multiple channels, a magazine and valuable web property and a worldwide audience. They have a 30 year head start on Fox, that will not be easily overcome. Joe Public Sports fan for the most part is trained to just throw on ESPN when they want to watch sports. That will take years to undo.

[bressler3south]

If you build it, Ray, they will come……..

[rjsuperfly66]

The pre-programmed ESPN people can be overcome, but those are the people it takes time to bring it over.

ESPN does have the leg up though because it does show NBA, massive college basketball/football, Monday Night Football, MLB, MLS, WNBA, and a variety of other products.

Fox 1 having just a small portion of football, basketball, and then UFC obviously makes it the underdog.

Fox just has to be willing to spend (which they have shown they are willing to do). If they bring over another talented football/basketball conference over time, or another major sport (say NBA), more people will follow.

People are so sick of ESPN, but what are your other options?

Everyone said The Sports Hub was going to fail with WEEI in the picture, but by offering the program that WEEI refused to offer, they were able to play to the listener and conquer the ratings crown.

It won't be as easy for Fox, but it won't be impossible either.

[wakefield]

"The networks will take over the Speed and Fuel channels, which combine to cost subscribers about 40 cents per month. According to SNL Kagan, Fox Sports 1 will charge between 75 cents and $1 per subscriber."

"SNL Kagan estimates in 2013 that ESPN is charging $5.54 a month per subscriber, and that amount is expected to top $7 by 2017, according to MediaPost, an online resource for advertising media."

The bottom of the article has a list of per subscriber fees for cable networks.
http://www.roopstigo.com/reader/2013-th ... dont-want/

[SGreenwell]

TV ratings are down across the board. Many in the younger generation don't even watch TV between their phones and tablets and on-demand services. I have many friends who exclusively use Apple TV, Hulu, etc for all of their tv viewing. It will catch up to all the networks at a certain point. And regardless if ESPN is having a tough year, they are basically a monopoly in the sports entertainment business, with multiple channels, a magazine and valuable web property and a worldwide audience. They have a 30 year head start on Fox, that will not be easily overcome. Joe Public Sports fan for the most part is trained to just throw on ESPN when they want to watch sports. That will take years to undo.

Agree more with this, and if anything, ESPN is probably in a more secure position as overall TV ratings continue to slide, because they at least can guarantee a market to advertisers, thanks to a lot of the exclusive sports content they have and the demographic they attract. I imagine ESPN will slide a little bit, because in the past they made a scandalous amount of money with practically no expenses, but it's hard for me to think of a scenario where they aren't turning a healthy profit. It would take an abandonment by their current audience, which isn't going to happen as long as ESPN holds the rights for Monday Night Football, the NBA and NFL drafts, NBA and MLB regular season games, etc.

[Ramulous]

All the large BCS teams have left the "big east" behind......those with bigger student enrollments and football that is.....all that is left are smaller schools which only have basketball as their main sport.....

....these schools traditionally don't "travel" as well as the BCS schools.....they don't bring thousands upon thousands of fans to their away games...it seems the new big east is anxiously awaiting their inaugural conference tournament to see if they can fill the MSG as in the past when they had football schools bringing their fans, notably the Syracuse fans....

....maybe I am wrong but I don't see any schools in the new big east with the ability to draw fans to their tourney......Georgetown ?...I will give you St. Johns having its hometown edge....but do they go if the tournament moves out of MSG?....are Depaul, Xavier and Butler bringing 5000 combined fans to the tournament in MSG, especially if they know they are already in the field of 64?

It will be interesting to see where Fox goes with this if the demographics and ratings are not there to justify paying the new big east 10 times what the A-10 is getting in rights fees when the products will be eerily similar....in my opinion.....

[RF1]

All the large BCS teams have left the "big east" behind......those with bigger student enrollments and football that is.....all that is left are smaller schools which only have basketball as their main sport.....

....these schools traditionally don't "travel" as well as the BCS schools.....they don't bring thousands upon thousands of fans to their away games...it seems the new big east is anxiously awaiting their inaugural conference tournament to see if they can fill the MSG as in the past when they had football schools bringing their fans, notably the Syracuse fans....

....maybe I am wrong but I don't see any schools in the new big east with the ability to draw fans to their tourney......Georgetown ?...I will give you St. Johns having its hometown edge....but do they go if the tournament moves out of MSG?....are Depaul, Xavier and Butler bringing 5000 combined fans to the tournament in MSG, especially if they know they are already in the field of 64?

It will be interesting to see where Fox goes with this if the demographics and ratings are not there to justify paying the new big east 10 times what the A-10 is getting in rights fees when the products will be eerily similar....in my opinion.....

There has already been a lot of buzz about the Catholic Big East Tournament at MSG having to now work for ticket sales. It was a given the old Big East Tourney would sell out with Syracuse and UConn fans snaring a lot of tickets. Even the Notre Dame subway alumni were a large force. The new Catholic Big East is made up of mostly smaller schools that did not bring as many fans. Catholic Big East administrators are worried about tickets sales (with regards to MSG contract and perception of league) and there is talk that prices will likely be reduced and much more put into marketing efforts. I have even read that member schools may have to pre-purchase a set allotment.

[BFC]

2. The 2013-14 season will be crucial for the Atlantic 10's efforts to continue the momentum it built last season with La Salle's run to the NCAA tournament's Sweet 16 from the First Four. The top three teams return in Virginia Commonwealth, Saint Louis and La Salle, though the league loses Xavier and Butler. The A-10 will need that top three to stay on top, with a deeper second tier in Richmond, Saint Joseph's and Massachusetts. George Mason is the wild card in its first year in the league (Davidson joins in 2014-15). Dayton, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure are all more than capable of cracking the aforementioned crew. The A-10 gets overshadowed by the Big East and might at times by the American. That's why this is an important year for the A-10 to re-establish its foothold in the East.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... ers-miller

[URI_05]

All the large BCS teams have left the "big east" behind......those with bigger student enrollments and football that is.....all that is left are smaller schools which only have basketball as their main sport.....

....these schools traditionally don't "travel" as well as the BCS schools.....they don't bring thousands upon thousands of fans to their away games...it seems the new big east is anxiously awaiting their inaugural conference tournament to see if they can fill the MSG as in the past when they had football schools bringing their fans, notably the Syracuse fans....

....maybe I am wrong but I don't see any schools in the new big east with the ability to draw fans to their tourney......Georgetown ?...I will give you St. Johns having its hometown edge....but do they go if the tournament moves out of MSG?....are Depaul, Xavier and Butler bringing 5000 combined fans to the tournament in MSG, especially if they know they are already in the field of 64?

It will be interesting to see where Fox goes with this if the demographics and ratings are not there to justify paying the new big east 10 times what the A-10 is getting in rights fees when the products will be eerily similar....in my opinion.....

There has already been a lot of buzz about the Catholic Big East Tournament at MSG having to now work for ticket sales. It was a given the old Big East Tourney would sell out with Syracuse and UConn fans snaring a lot of tickets. Even the Notre Dame subway alumni were a large force. The new Catholic Big East is made up of mostly smaller schools that did not bring as many fans. Catholic Big East administrators are worried about tickets sales (with regards to MSG contract and perception of league) and there is talk that prices will likely be reduced and much more put into marketing efforts. I have even read that member schools may have to pre-purchase a set allotment.

It'll definitely be interesting. I've been down a few times with my UConn alum friends and the Garden was always filled with UConn and Syracuse fans.

[Obadiah]

The challenge on filling MSG for the new Big East is formidable. How do you replace just three schools having a combined undergraduate enrollment of 63,000+ within 200 miles of New York with three schools whose combined undergraduate enrollment is 12,082, all located 600-1200 miles from NYC???

[ATPTourFan]

Makes sense, OB, when you put it that way. Hard to argue against this logic.

[bressler3south]

We'll see……..