NET 2019-2020 Season

Rhody74 · Unread post by **Rhody74** » 4 years ago

I’m pretty good at math but this shit gives me a headache. Who was it that said “Just win, baby.”

KevanBoyles · Unread post by **KevanBoyles** » 4 years ago

I think we need to do 14-4 in our conference schedule.

BleedBlue87 · Unread post by **BleedBlue87** » 4 years ago

Blue Man wrote: ↑4 years ago
Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago I still think we're in great shape for an at-large if we avoid losing to bad A10 teams and pickup wins against STL, Richmond, and VCU. I don't think beating Dayton is a requirement.

There's so much parity this year that everyone is losing games and as a whole not many outside the top 25 have tremendous resumes.
Fair. We're still going to need that "marquee win" though. The unfortunate thing for our schedule (or fortunate depending on your POV), is that outside of VCU and Dayton - we don't have many top 100 road games that we could afford to lose in that scenario.

As of right now George Mason and Davidson are the only 2 that I could look at and say that we can survive.

Granted, if by some miracle we go 8-1 at home, with a loss to UD or VCU, and 5-4 on the road (losses to UD, VCU, GM, Davidson) - I would think 13-5, 9-3 still requires a bit more work in the A10 tourney.

Thanks to PC and Bama sucking, along with the WKU injury - our margin for error is a lot smaller.

I think you are right Blue Man. 13-5 seems to be what we need and need to at least beat Dayton and/or VCU once. I would feel more comfortable if we split with both,

R.Kelly150 · Unread post by **R.Kelly150** » 4 years ago

Alabama is up to 65 in the NET and with lots of chances at resume building wins in the always tough SEC they have a chance to really build a solid tourney resume. The better they do the more likely Rhody win turns from so-so to a resume building OOC win, so win Roll Tide Roll!

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 4 years ago

Just keep winning baby. I like the way this team is coming together. Offensively we look much more dynamic than last years team. 5 guys in double figures, elite Assist/FG rate in our last couple contests, protecting the ball, a blossoming front line with depth and scoring ability, 2 warrior guards who have won in March. LFG!!!

URI2006_Andy · Unread post by **URI2006_Andy** » 4 years ago

13-5 will be enough. It won’t matter where the 13 wins come from because, if we go 0-4 against VCU and Dayton, that means we’re 13-1 against everyone else (and that will solidify us as the 3rd team out of the A-10).

The A-10 is likely getting 3 teams in, maybe 4. The closest comp from last year is the AAC which ended up with 4.

Net Rankings
A-10 Current vs AAC as of this time last year

Dayton 12 Houston 4
VCU 52 Cincy 25
StL 60 UCF 41
URI 69 Temple 62
GMU 71 Tulsa 90
Rich 77 UConn 91
Dav 94 Memphis 96
Duq 105. USF 102
Lasalle 119 Wichita 133
UMass 128 SMU 137

Temple went 13-5 in AAC and lost in Quarterfinals of conference tourney and got an 11 seed (first four).

UCF went 13-5 and lost Quarterfinals of conference tourney and got a 9 seed.

Cincy 14-4 and won the conference tourney and got a 7 seed. (I think the committee locked Cincy in as a 7 before the outcome of the AAC finals)

Houston 16-2 and lost in finals of conference tourney and got a 3 seed.

SmartyBarrett · Unread post by **SmartyBarrett** » 4 years ago

For what it's worth, KenPom predicts Rhody to be favored in every game for the rest of the season except four:

at VCU
at Dayton
at Davidson
vs Dayton

He also has at St. Bonaventure, at George Mason, and vs VCU as essentially coin flips (but URI slightly favored in all three).

reef · Unread post by **reef** » 4 years ago

URI2006_Andy wrote: ↑4 years ago 13-5 will be enough. It won’t matter where the 13 wins come from because, if we go 0-4 against VCU and Dayton, that means we’re 13-1 against everyone else (and that will solidify us as the 3rd team out of the A-10).

The A-10 is likely getting 3 teams in, maybe 4. The closest comp from last year is the AAC which ended up with 4.

Net Rankings
A-10 Current vs AAC as of this time last year

Dayton 12 Houston 4
VCU 52 Cincy 25
StL 60 UCF 41
URI 69 Temple 62
GMU 71 Tulsa 90
Rich 77 UConn 91
Dav 94 Memphis 96
Duq 105. USF 102
Lasalle 119 Wichita 133
UMass 128 SMU 137

Temple went 13-5 in AAC and lost in Quarterfinals of conference tourney and got an 11 seed (first four).

UCF went 13-5 and lost Quarterfinals of conference tourney and got a 9 seed.

Cincy 14-4 and won the conference tourney and got a 7 seed. (I think the committee locked Cincy in as a 7 before the outcome of the AAC finals)

Houston 16-2 and lost in finals of conference tourney and got a 3 seed.

Totally agree with this I think 13-5 most likely is good enough with 9-3 OOC

If we go 14-4 conf we will be a lock

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 4 years ago

TruePoint wrote: ↑4 years ago
ramster wrote: ↑4 years ago Anyone know how to see how the conferences compare in strength on NET? How does the A-10 compare in the 32 D1 Conferences?

As we close out OOC Play:

Duquesne gets hammered from 65 to 105 dropping 40 slots with neutral court loss to Marshall
Richmond goes from 51 to 77 with loss at Alabama
VCU moves up from 64 to 52 with home win vs Bethune-Cookman

Dayton is ranked #12 followed by VCU #52, Saint Louis #60, URI #69, George Mason #71, Richmond #77, Davidson #94

West Virginia #9
Maryland #16
LSU #41
Alabama #65
WKU #122

Rutgers #37 - of interest since they have been bad for so long
DePaul #39 - much better than expected in BE
St Johns #49 - much better than expected in BE
UConn #70
PC a disaster #129

B27037B5-04D3-47BE-9402-41F2E3609577.png
Don’t forget North Texas, which is #111. Beating them on a neutral court is our second best win right now as much attention as the PC game gets and how much we’ve talked about WKU.

= why we need to root for PC.

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 4 years ago

There's a difference between hoping PC's NET improves, versus openly rooting for them to win.

The latter is somewhat distasteful for some of us.

PC to me is 2nd on the "do not want" list, behind Duke.

You oldtimers like myself know why.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 4 years ago

URI2006_Andy wrote: ↑4 years ago
13-5 will be enough. It won’t matter where the 13 wins come from because, if we go 0-4 against VCU and Dayton, that means we’re 13-1 against everyone else (and that will solidify us as the 3rd team out of the A-10).

Temple 62

Temple went 13-5 in AAC and lost in Quarterfinals of conference tourney and got an 11 seed (first four).

If you look at Temple, who was clearly the AAC bubble team last year, they were 4-7 in Q1 games, 4-2 in Q2 games, and had 1 bad loss. 8-9 in Q1/Q2 games with only one bad loss is what got them in.

In your scenario above, that would leave URI 1-6 in Q1 games and 3-2 in Q2 games (assuming the one additional loss you mentioned above), but that relies on a few different things based on the last NET:

1) Can St. Louis remain a Q2 game? They last had a NET of 60, need 75.
2) Can Alabama remain a Q2 game? They last had a NET of 65, need 75.
3) Can at UMASS remain a Q2 game? They last had a NET of 128 (before last night), need 135.
4) Does Richmond become a Q2 game? They last had a NET of 77, need 75.

If 2 of those go URI's way and 2 don't, that would leave URI 1-6 in Q1 games, and 2-2 in Q2 games (we will say no bad losses).

That would leave URI 3-8 in Q1/Q2 games. I'd say that even if URI finished 3rd, that would leave them with significant work to do in the A10 Tournament.

If all those games went their way, URI would be 1-6 in Q1 games, 4-2 in Q2 games, 5-8 Q1/Q2 games. Would be close but I personally wouldn't be feeling comfortable.

RhowdyRam02 · Unread post by **RhowdyRam02** » 4 years ago

R.Kelly150 wrote: ↑4 years ago Alabama is up to 65 in the NET and with lots of chances at resume building wins in the always tough SEC they have a chance to really build a solid tourney resume. The better they do the more likely Rhody win turns from so-so to a resume building OOC win, so win Roll Tide Roll!

They're almost definitely not going to become a top 30 team, so quadrant 1 is out, but it's imperative for us that they stay in the top 75 so our win is at least a quadrant 2 game

rambone 78 · Unread post by **rambone 78** » 4 years ago

1-6 in Q1 games isn't going to cut it.

2 would help though.

Another Q1 in the A10's might be necessary.

URI2006_Andy · Unread post by **URI2006_Andy** » 4 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑4 years ago
URI2006_Andy wrote: ↑4 years ago
13-5 will be enough. It won’t matter where the 13 wins come from because, if we go 0-4 against VCU and Dayton, that means we’re 13-1 against everyone else (and that will solidify us as the 3rd team out of the A-10).

Temple 62

Temple went 13-5 in AAC and lost in Quarterfinals of conference tourney and got an 11 seed (first four).

If you look at Temple, who was clearly the AAC bubble team last year, they were 4-7 in Q1 games, 4-2 in Q2 games, and had 1 bad loss. 8-9 in Q1/Q2 games with only one bad loss is what got them in.

In your scenario above, that would leave URI 1-6 in Q1 games and 3-2 in Q2 games (assuming the one additional loss you mentioned above), but that relies on a few different things based on the last NET:

1) Can St. Louis remain a Q2 game? They last had a NET of 60, need 75.
2) Can Alabama remain a Q2 game? They last had a NET of 65, need 75.
3) Can at UMASS remain a Q2 game? They last had a NET of 128 (before last night), need 135.
4) Does Richmond become a Q2 game? They last had a NET of 77, need 75.

If 2 of those go URI's way and 2 don't, that would leave URI 1-6 in Q1 games, and 2-2 in Q2 games (we will say no bad losses).

That would leave URI 3-8 in Q1/Q2 games. I'd say that even if URI finished 3rd, that would leave them with significant work to do in the A10 Tournament.

If all those games went their way, URI would be 1-6 in Q1 games, 4-2 in Q2 games, 5-8 Q1/Q2 games. Would be close but I personally wouldn't be feeling comfortable.

Temple was 2-6 vs Q1 last year. (Look at the NCAA nitty gritty report from Selection Sunday). UCF was 2-5 vs Q1.

URI was 3-2 vs VCU/Dayton last year. I’d be shocked if URI got to 13 conference wins without winning at least one Q1 game.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 4 years ago

URI2006_Andy wrote: ↑4 years ago
Temple was 2-6 vs Q1 last year. (Look at the NCAA nitty gritty report from Selection Sunday). UCF was 2-5 vs Q1.

My apologies, you are very right and I was very wrong. I had assumed the year-end report was for Selection Sunday, not including tournament games.

Temple was absolutely 2-6 in Q1 games, but 6-2 in Q2 games as of Selection Sunday, 8-8 in Q1/Q2 games.
UCF was 2-5 in Q1 games, and 6-2 in Q2 games, 8-7 Q1/Q2 overall.

Since Q1 are considered great wins and Q2 are considered good wins, I do think it's important to note both and not just Q1 games.

If you are going to be 2-5 in Q1 games, you better have enough good Q2 wins to make up for it.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

RJ,
What do you think the cut off for NET is to make the Dance?
Is there a place to see where the Conferences compare? How does the A10 stand versus all 32 Conferences in NET?

13 Dayton
46 VCU
58 Saint Louis
67 Rhode Island
77 Richmond
96 Duquesne
101 Davidson
106 George Mason
115 La Salle
133 Massachusetts
170 St. Bonaventure
202 Saint Joseph's
247 George Washington
268 Fordham

rhodysurf · Unread post by **rhodysurf** » 4 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑4 years ago RJ,
What do you think the cut off for NET is to make the Dance?
Is there a place to see where the Conferences compare? How does the A10 stand versus all 32 Conferences in NET?

13 Dayton
46 VCU
58 Saint Louis
67 Rhode Island
77 Richmond
96 Duquesne
101 Davidson
106 George Mason
115 La Salle
133 Massachusetts
170 St. Bonaventure
202 Saint Joseph's
247 George Washington
268 Fordham

The NET isn’t going to be used like they are going to just take the top 40 teams or something. It’s main utility is for comparing schedule difficulty and wins using the Quadrant system. I get people want solid rankings to rely on but URIs NET being high isn’t going to get them in if they only get there by blowing out the bottom of the league. They need Q1 wins more than anything.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

rhodysurf wrote: ↑4 years ago
ramster wrote: ↑4 years ago RJ,
What do you think the cut off for NET is to make the Dance?
Is there a place to see where the Conferences compare? How does the A10 stand versus all 32 Conferences in NET?

13 Dayton
46 VCU
58 Saint Louis
67 Rhode Island
77 Richmond
96 Duquesne
101 Davidson
106 George Mason
115 La Salle
133 Massachusetts
170 St. Bonaventure
202 Saint Joseph's
247 George Washington
268 Fordham
The NET isn’t going to be used like they are going to just take the top 40 teams or something. It’s main utility is for comparing schedule difficulty and wins using the Quadrant system. I get people want solid rankings to rely on but URIs NET being high isn’t going to get them in if they only get there by blowing out the bottom of the league. They need Q1 wins more than anything.

Neither was the RPI, but a rule of thumb was if you were an AT Large Candidate that 40 or below was considerate safe - but if memory serves me correctly there have been some teams below 40 that didn’t make it - might have even been one of Barons URI Teams because we finished the season so poorly.

And URI will not get a high NET because the NET of the teams in the A10 is on average not very good - only 6 teams now below 100 with 3 over 200.

I’d love to know what the NETs were of the 14 A10 teams last season when OOC was completed to compare apples to apples.

Obadiah · Unread post by **Obadiah** » 4 years ago

ramster is very correct is this overview. I had kept a record of teams that were snubbed for the NCAAT. Here is that file.

    NCAAT Snub Teams
Season	  Highest RPI Out	
	  Team	       RPI
		
2018-19	UNC Greensboro	31
2017-18	Middle Tenn	33
2016-17	Illinois State	33
2015-16	St. Bona	30
2014-15	Colorado State	29
2013-14	Southern Miss	34
2012-13	Southern Miss	31
2011-12	Marshall	44
2010-11	Harvard	        35
2009-10	URI	        40
2008-09	San Diego State	34
2007-08	Dayton	        30
2006-07	Air Force	29

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 4 years ago

I don't know the NET comparisons, but per KenPom the A10 is the 8th strongest conference through OOC play. Last year at same time the league was ranked 11th.

Obadiah · Unread post by **Obadiah** » 4 years ago

Here is another perspective on subject

The 31 conferences can be divided into three categories:

BCS/Power              • Always get multiple bids.	
ACC
Big East
Big Ten 
Big 12 
Pac-10
SEC	

“Tweener” Conferences  • This categorization is not rigid so the number of conferences here may vary.
Mt. West               • This category often gets multiple bids, but sometimes they only get one.
C-USA                  • Most of the teams snubbed have come from these conferences.	
A-10
CAA
Horizon
WAC
West Coast

Also-Rans
18 other conferences	  • Never gets multiple bids

UCH21377 · Unread post by **UCH21377** » 4 years ago

AAC fits in there somewhere near the top. Think they’ve had multiple bids every year since forming

Obadiah · Unread post by **Obadiah** » 4 years ago

UCH21377 wrote: ↑4 years ago AAC fits in there somewhere near the top. Think they’ve had multiple bids every year since forming

You are correct. The chart comes from an old file started before the AAC was formed. I wouldn't put them in the cartel though.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑4 years ago RJ,
What do you think the cut off for NET is to make the Dance?
Is there a place to see where the Conferences compare? How does the A10 stand versus all 32 Conferences in NET?

13 Dayton
46 VCU
58 Saint Louis
67 Rhode Island
77 Richmond
96 Duquesne
101 Davidson
106 George Mason
115 La Salle
133 Massachusetts
170 St. Bonaventure
202 Saint Joseph's
247 George Washington
268 Fordham

Never mind, I found the NET Rankings in last seasons NET Thread as was provided by SmartyBarrett just prior to A10 Conference Games:

Post by SmartyBarrett » 1 year ago
One more before A-10 play really gets rolling this weekend.

55. VCU
62. Saint Louis
68. Dayton
104. Rhode Island
106. Davidson
148. Saint Joseph's
159. George Mason
160. Duquesne
164. UMass
197. Fordham
209. St. Bonaventure
213. Richmond
288. George Washington
313. La Salle

Non-conference opponents:
58. College of Charleston
87. Providence
99. West Virginia
117. Brown
130. Harvard
149. Hawaii
152. Stony Brook
154. Holy Cross
185. Bucknell
279. Charlotte
305. Bryant
319. Middle Tennessee

A10 Team Average Before A10 Conference Play
2018-19: 160.4
2019-20: 121.4

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

bigappleram wrote: ↑4 years ago I don't know the NET comparisons, but per KenPom the A10 is the 8th strongest conference through OOC play. Last year at same time the league was ranked 11th.

Thanks BAR

Typically RPI would have the A10 ranked 7th in recent years.
Last season was the worst I’ve seen the A10 finish at 12th, was even as low as 14th I recall
Thus season A10 has been back up to 7th and recently slipped to 8th, but better than last season for sure.

End of 2018-19 RPI Season
1 Big 12
2. Atlantic Coast
3 Big Ten
4 Southeastern
5 Big East
6 American Athletic
7 Pacific-12
8 West Coast
9 Mid-American
10 Ivy League
11 Southern
12 Atlantic 10

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

All conferences are hurt by their worst teams, obviously, but the A10 is especially damaged in these types of conference rankings by the unique gap between the top teams and the bottom teams. If the A10 were a 10 team league it’s rankings would be closer to those of the top 6 leagues.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

The A10 has been close to the Top 6, finishing 7th through most years.

It was last season that the A10 took a nose dive to 12th and sometimes as bad as 14th during the season.

But now back to 8th for now in RPI and in Ken Pom. Don’t know in NET since they do not have this feature.

That is why the A10 was being viewed as a 1 bid Conference last season (only post season tournament play got more than 1 bid). The top teams did not have good rankings and the entire conference average ranking was the weakest in many years.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

Sorry, should have been more clear. Whether the A10 finishes as the 7th or 10th Or whatever conference, the gap between it and the 6th conference is always pretty pronounced compared to, say, the gap between the 6th and the 5th conferences. It can’t but be that way, because the average ranking of the teams (which is how these systems sort the conferences) is dragged down by multiple 200+ programs. You will very rarely, if ever, see a 200+ program among the top 6 conferences. The AAC has a similar issue, but not nearly as pronounced - they have one 200+ team.

To illustrate this point, (using Sagarin because the data is easiest to compile, but would see similar result using either of the other systems), if we only ranked the top 10 teams, the A10’s rating as a conference would be 78.72. As it is, its ranking is 75.90. For context, #4 SEC is 81.76, #5 ACC is 81.70, #6 Pac12 is 80.41 and #7 AAC is 79.27. So the gap between #4 and #7 is smaller than the gap between #7 AAC and #8 A10. That is a yawning gap. If we were only looking at the top-10 teams, the A10 would be in shouting distance of being the #4 conference, and a couple wins here or there away from leap frogging the teams between it and that lofty position. Put another way, right now we are closer to #13 SoCon at 72.34 than we are to #7 AAC. Without the bottom 4 teams we would be closer to #4 SEC than #9 WCC.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 4 years ago

Someone mentioned above URI could not get a high NET because of lack of quality opposition.

That is not necessarily true. While SOS factors could have some impact, playing (and destroying) bad competition can impact the efficiency and MOV components of the metric, as well as positively effect win percentage.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

I’m just simply attempting to compare A10 NET for OOC for this season to last.
Last season we warranted only 1 team - got lucky. It was the worst RPI I’ve seen for the A10 ever

Comparing NET this year looks favorable to get more teams in - how many more? Depends on many things including post season conference which is a huge deciding factor for who gets in

Should help the A10 teams in Conference play because the ave NETs are higher - is that correct RJ? 121.4 vs 160.4 last season.

A10 Team Average Before A10 Conference Play
2018-19: 160.4
2019-20: 121.4

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑4 years ago Someone mentioned above URI could not get a high NET because of lack of quality opposition.

That is not necessarily true. While SOS factors could have some impact, playing (and destroying) bad competition can impact the efficiency and MOV components of the metric, as well as positively effect win percentage.

This is what makes the system more dynamic than RPI - because you’re being measured against expected performance, you can improve tour ranking against bad teams. With RPI, you either just win or lose and so you can lose ground winning against a bad team even if you win by 50 points.

rjsuperfly66 · Unread post by **rjsuperfly66** » 4 years ago

I think regardless of what the NET numbers are, the committee is still judging teams by resume. They made NC St the poster child last season for running up a high NET by crushing cream puffs but not having a good resume in Q1 and Q2 games. A team that is say 3-8 in Q1-Q2 games with a Top 45 NET I don’t think is getting in. A team that is 5-7 or 6-6 with the same sample but a NET in the Top 55 probably has a better chance. Average NET of conference mates only matters if it’s giving more Q1/Q2 opportunities than the previous seasons.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

I agree, but those are edge cases. Fun to think about, but in reality the chances that a team plays half its games against Q1/Q2 teams and is .500 in those games and is outside the top-50 on selection Sunday are remote. Not saying it’s not possible, and NC State is a good example in the other direction, but these are outliers. Doesn’t seem like it will be something URI has to think about this year. Either we will compile the wins we need to and the NET ranking will be well inside the norm for the field or we won’t and the NET ranking will be outside of that norm.

daytonflyerfan · Unread post by **daytonflyerfan** » 4 years ago

URI2006_Andy wrote: ↑4 years agoThe A-10 is likely getting 3 teams in, maybe 4.

No way, Dayton might be the only 1 getting a bid if Dayton wins the A10T. Looking like 2, Dayton and somebody else winning the A10T. VCU is barely hanging on right now, Mason, Richmond, and Duquesne have fallen off. Nobody else is contending right now, but things can change I suppose. Sorry to insult you guys.

Also, SLU only has 2 losses, they have a chance.

ramster · Unread post by **ramster** » 4 years ago

daytonflyerfan wrote: ↑4 years ago
URI2006_Andy wrote: ↑4 years agoThe A-10 is likely getting 3 teams in, maybe 4.
No way, Dayton might be the only 1 getting a bid if Dayton wins the A10T. Looking like 2, Dayton and somebody else winning the A10T. VCU is barely hanging on right now, Mason, Richmond, and Duquesne have fallen off. Nobody else is contending right now, but things can change I suppose. Sorry to insult you guys.

You are not insulting me. I see1, Maybe 2 but let the All Important Conference Play Begin!! 3 or 4 seem to be long shots. Hope I’m wrong.

Tomorrow Jan 2 has 4 A10 games:
Fordham @ VCU 7pm ESPN+
St Joseph’s @ Richmond 7pm ESPN+
St Louis @ Duquesne 7pm ESPN+
Dayton @ LaSalle 8:30pm CBSSN

daytonflyerfan · Unread post by **daytonflyerfan** » 4 years ago

ramster wrote: ↑4 years ago
daytonflyerfan wrote: ↑4 years ago
URI2006_Andy wrote: ↑4 years agoThe A-10 is likely getting 3 teams in, maybe 4.
No way, Dayton might be the only 1 getting a bid if Dayton wins the A10T. Looking like 2, Dayton and somebody else winning the A10T. VCU is barely hanging on right now, Mason, Richmond, and Duquesne have fallen off. Nobody else is contending right now, but things can change I suppose. Sorry to insult you guys.
You are not insulting me. I see1, Maybe 2 but let the All Important Conference Play Begin!! 3 or 4 seem to be long shots. Hope I’m wrong.

Tomorrow Jan 2 has 4 A10 games:
Fordham @ VCU 7pm ESPN+
St Joseph’s @ Richmond 7pm ESPN+
St Louis @ Duquesne 7pm ESPN+
Dayton @ LaSalle 8:30pm CBSSN

Heck, if Dayton has some unexpected A10 losses, Dayton could quickly be on the bubble. That seems unlikely though. Mason, Richmond, and Duquesne falling off was very disappointing.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

That’s a funny take. SLU has 2 losses against the 244th hardest schedule; URI has 3 against the 70th hardest. They are separated by less than 10 spots in the NET with 2/3 of the season left. URI is 20 spots ahead of SLU in Kenpom.

I still believe the A10 will get 3 bids. Richmond and Duquesne falling off was a little disappointing but hardly surprising. It’s one of the few times where I was proven right but would have preferred not to be - those teams are who they are; if they could have brought fraudulently good metrics into conference play it would have benefitted everyone.

daytonflyerfan · Unread post by **daytonflyerfan** » 4 years ago

TruePoint wrote: ↑4 years ago That’s a funny take. SLU has 2 losses against the 244th hardest schedule; URI has 3 against the 70th hardest. They are separated by less than 10 spots in the NET with 2/3 of the season left. URI is 20 spots ahead of SLU in Kenpom.

I still believe the A10 will get 3 bids. Richmond and Duquesne falling off was a little disappointing but hardly surprising. It’s one of the few times where I was proven right but would have preferred not to be - those teams are who they are; if they could have brought fraudulently good metrics into conference play it would have benefitted everyone.

Yeah, fair enough, I should not have dismissed you guys. That was not fair. I just gave the edge to SLU on account of their only having 2 losses.

I ran the below projector, if you guys win out but lose to us 2x, you are the last team in, that is brutal. Just seems like an uphill battle.

http://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php? ... m=&x5_res=

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 4 years ago

daytonflyerfan wrote: ↑4 years ago
No way, Dayton might be the only 1 getting a bid if Dayton wins the A10T. Looking like 2, Dayton and somebody else winning the A10T. VCU is barely hanging on right now, Mason, Richmond, and Duquesne have fallen off. Nobody else is contending right now, but things can change I suppose. Sorry to insult you guys.

Dayton, VCU, Rhody and St Louis are the potential at large teams. 4 teams competing for potentially 3 bids. Duquesne was always a pretender.

daytonflyerfan · Unread post by **daytonflyerfan** » 4 years ago

I ran it again, if you win out but lose to us at UD, you are a 10 seed.

http://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php? ... m=&x5_res=

NYGFan_Section208 · Unread post by **NYGFan_Section208** » 4 years ago

daytonflyerfan wrote: ↑4 years ago I ran it again, if you win out but lose to us at UD, you are a 10 seed.

http://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php? ... m=&x5_res=

If Rhody wins out, with one loss vs Dayton and finishes 26-4...I believe they get ranked.

daytonflyerfan · Unread post by **daytonflyerfan** » 4 years ago

NYGFan_Section208 wrote: ↑4 years ago
daytonflyerfan wrote: ↑4 years ago I ran it again, if you win out but lose to us at UD, you are a 10 seed.

http://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php? ... m=&x5_res=
If Rhody wins out, with one loss vs Dayton and finishes 26-4...I believe they get ranked.

Yeah, I agree, that projector has to be out of kilter then. Being ranked would get you down to 5-7 seed range.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 4 years ago

The variable for us, beyond in conference performance, is how the Alabama and PC wins age. Both of those teams have numerous Q1/Q2 opportunities to improve their numbers, as they rise we rise.

Unread post by **TruePoint** » 4 years ago

daytonflyerfan wrote: ↑4 years ago I ran it again, if you win out but lose to us at UD, you are a 10 seed.

http://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php? ... m=&x5_res=

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 4 years ago

I don't know if the Alabama win will ever be better than it is as a Q2 win. So we sit with 1 Q2 win against Alabama and 0 Q1 wins. pc may give us a Q2 win at the end.Snapshot today, we have 3 Q1 games in conf (2 vs Dayton 1 at VCU) and 5 Q2 games (SLU, VCU at home, Umass away and GMU away and Davidson away). That's some slim pickings.

theblueram · Unread post by **theblueram** » 4 years ago

Also notable, Georgetown played pc as a quad 1 game. After they lost, pc ended up with a quad 2 win.

rhodylaw · Unread post by **rhodylaw** » 4 years ago

People always seem to be quick to make us out to be a 1 bid or barely 2 bid league. The A10 is a three bid league, good years will yield 4 or 5 bids. Average years yield 3. Bad years yield 2.

I happen to think as a league we are having a good year and will see 4 to 5 bids.

bigappleram · Unread post by **bigappleram** » 4 years ago

5 bids is never happening.
4 only happens if a lot of things breaks right for the Top 3 and then someone steals a bid by winning the tourney outside the Top 3.

sevegny7 · Unread post by **sevegny7** » 4 years ago

Yeah it was trending towards 4 early in non conference. Then teams in the middle portion started losing games to close non conference.

rhodylaw · Unread post by **rhodylaw** » 4 years ago

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washin ... Type%3Damp

A yearly exercise - 3 bids at least for almost 15 years. Last year was the aberration.