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Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:30 pm
by Obadiah
CORRECTION
In a previous post I stated: "Only five contestants remain in the game and on the next Rhody loss, four will be eliminated and ramfan85 will be declared the winner. This is likely to happen before the season is complete - a first for this contest. Incredible!"
I came to that conclusion based on a fit of overall record and conference record as shown in the analysis posted earlier by ramsman75. What I and he neglected to consider was the fit criterion does not matter, when there is a gap in the prediction clusters. For example, no one predicted a 18-13, 10-8 record, so between 19-12 and 17-14 there is a gap and if 18-13 becomes the actual record then the winner is determined by the closest to the actual record using the bet components to break ties. Previously two posters - URI_IEP and bressler3south were eliminated because in the 19-12 cluster their 10-8 conference did not fit, but given the existence of the gap their 10-8 conference prediction is on the mark so they beat the 19-12 group who predicted 11-7. Therefore bressler3south and URI_IEP predictions are restored and they still remain in the contest.
In the event that 18-13 becomes the actual record and since ramfan at 17-14 also predicted a conference record of 10-8, we have a three way tie which is broken by the team scoring component which currently favors URI_IEP.
Here is what I should have stated after the VCU loss. Seven contestants remain in the game and with the next URI loss, three contestants will remain standing - URI_IEP, bressler3south, and ramfan85.
I know this sounds as clear as mud, but the gap near the bottom of all predictions complicates matters. For more clarity I will next summarize all the record options left and the likely winners in each option. That analysis will show that ramfan85 still has the edge.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:48 am
by Obadiah
With four games remaining on the schedule, here is a summary of all the potential combination of wins and losses over the last four games and the likely contest winner associated with each alternative.
Code: Select all
Potential Outcome Overall Record A-10 Record Likely Contest Winner
Wins all 4 19-12 11-7 BFC or Rhody15 determined by team scoring tiebreaker.
Wins 3 of 4 18-13 10-8 URI_IEP or bressler3south determined by team scoring tiebreaker.
Wins 2 of 4 17-14 9-9 ramfan85
Wins 1 of 4 16-15 8-10 ramfan85
Wins 0 of 4 15-16 7-11 ramfan85
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2016 7:18 am
by ATPTourFan
Aaaah. Now I understand.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2016 8:55 pm
by Obadiah
Results after Game # 28 Davidson
Code: Select all
2015-16 Season 2014-15 Season
Team Scoring, ppg 69.8 67.5
Top Scorers, ppg Terrell, 13.9 Matthews, 16.6
Garrett, 13.3 Martin, 11.9
Martin, 12.0 Terrell, 9.2
After Sixteen Home Games
Home Attendance
Total 75,085 83,821
Average 4,693 5,588
After Twenty Eight Games
Season Record 15-13 20-8
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:04 pm
by Obadiah
Only three left standing in the contest: URI_IEP, bressler3south, and ramfan85. Only a URI sweep of its final three games can prevent ramfan85 from winning this contest!!
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:35 pm
by Obadiah
Results after Game # 29 Dayton
Code: Select all
2015-16 Season 2014-15 Season
Team Scoring, ppg 70.0 67.5
Top Scorers, ppg Terrell, 14.0 Matthews, 16.6
Garrett, 13.2 Martin, 11.9
Martin, 12.0 Terrell, 9.2
After Sixteen Home Games
Home Attendance
Total 75,085 83,821
Average 4,693 5,588
After Twenty Nine Games
Season Record 16-13 21-8
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:40 pm
by Obadiah
It comes down to two: URI_IEP and ramfan85. If URI sweeps its last two, it's URI_IEP, just one loss gives it to ramfan85.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Sat Feb 27, 2016 3:18 pm
by ramfan85
I don't want to win this.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2016 4:14 pm
by URI_IEP
I thought I was out already
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2016 4:16 pm
by URI_IEP
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Thu Mar 03, 2016 10:38 pm
by Obadiah
Results after Game # 30 UMass
Code: Select all
2015-16 Season 2014-15 Season*
Team Scoring, ppg 69.9 67.5
Top Scorers, ppg Terrell, 14.0 Matthews, 16.6
Garrett, 12.9 Martin, 11.9
Martin, 12.0 Terrell, 9.2
After Seventeen Home Games
Home Attendance
Total 80,198 83,821
Average 4,718 5,588
After Thirty Games
Season Record 17-13 21-8
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Sat Mar 05, 2016 4:41 pm
by Obadiah
URI finishes the regular season at 17-14 and the winner of the 8th Annual Prediction Contest is .........ramfan85!!
Congratulations!
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:13 pm
by ATPTourFan
Yay! for ramfan85 (I suppose)
Huge thanks to Obadiah for again running (And FUNDING) this contest!
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 5:58 pm
by ramster
Congratulations Ramfan85.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Mon Mar 07, 2016 7:33 pm
by Obadiah
Thanks, ATP. It is always a pleasure to do this.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:43 am
by ramfan85
Thanks, guys. Hope next year I can win with a prediction of 29-2.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 12:03 pm
by RhowdyRam02
Thank you Obadiah for running the contests.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Mar 08, 2016 12:33 pm
by ATPTourFan
Yeah, this better be the last time where the lowest guesses for wins and attendance are awarded the spoils.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:40 pm
by Iggy1979
Who won the top scorer guess or was that a tiebreaker?
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:51 pm
by bressler3south
ATPTourFan wrote:Yeah, this better be the last time where the lowest guesses for wins and attendance are awarded the spoils.
Sounds sorta pessimistic-like, even though you're trying to be optimistic, ATP.....
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 6:14 pm
by Obadiah
Iggy, top scorer was a tiebreaker, but for the record:
Team Scoring for regular season was 69.6 and both 15 Year Lurker and Peter Ram Time had that exact prediction.
Top Scorer was Terrell at 13.6. Both Seawrightspostgame and rambone 78 were the closest with their prediction of Terrell at 13.8.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 6:36 pm
by rambone 78
Obadiah, next season's contest will be wild, imo.
You will have those who think we will blow everybody out, and not even play very many close games.
That's on the top end.
And all the way on the bottom end, there will be some that think we will still struggle to win the close games, and maybe not even make the Dance.
Opinions will vary wildly, but most will likely be too optimistic. They usually are.
What I'd like to see, versus what I think we'll see, could be pretty different.
I know I'm going to err on the cautious side this time. I'll gladly be on the low side next season!
Have to prove it first, before I can predict big things for this program going forward.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Mar 29, 2016 7:47 pm
by ramster
rambone 78 wrote:Obadiah, next season's contest will be wild, imo.
You will have those who think we will blow everybody out, and not even play very many close games.
That's on the top end.
And all the way on the bottom end, there will be some that think we will still struggle to win the close games, and maybe not even make the Dance.
Opinions will vary wildly, but most will likely be too optimistic. They usually are.
What I'd like to see, versus what I think we'll see, could be pretty different.
I know I'm going to err on the cautious side this time. I'll gladly be on the low side next season!
Have to prove it first, before I can predict big things for this program going forward.
Sounds like with so many posters incapable of predicting intelligently that you should have a huge leg up on winning next year's contest.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 6:53 am
by RhowdyRam02
Yup, Rambone has to win the prediction contest next year, no excuses.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:45 am
by ATPTourFan
Yeah everyone here besides Rambone expects blowout wins in all the games. Yup yup
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:45 am
by Ramulous
I will not participate in next year's contest.....
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:42 pm
by NYGFan_Section208
RhowdyRam02 wrote:Yup, Rambone has to win the prediction contest next year, no excuses.
Yep. Most knowledgeable guy on the board should win easily ---> NO EXCUSES...
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Wed Mar 30, 2016 8:03 pm
by rambone 78
All done piling on now?
Really don't give a shit.
I said a lot of people will predict too many wins next year. In fact the guys pissing on my post will be the biggest culprits most likely.
Don't agree? Look at the history of the contest.
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:27 am
by twisted3829
Almost time to start this up again right?
Re: 2015-16 Prediction Contest Summary
Posted: Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:44 pm
by Ramulous
For superstition's sake I will not participate this year.....
