Re: NET 2019-2020 Season
Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:29 pm
Blue Man wrote: ↑4 years agoAs much as I'd love to see the A10 be a 4 bid, it's starting to look like 2-3 is where we'll wind up.
Unfortunately for us, in a conference with very dwindling prospects for Q1 wins, we're becoming one of the few. The basement, after what we thought was a strong OOC, is still the damn basement and they all continue to plummet.
VCU, Richmond, and us are going to be penalized playing them. Even worse, we'll be throttled if we lose to them.
VCU and Richmond are battling us for what could be only 1 spot after Dayton. We can't let VCU get a Q1 against us on Friday. We can't fall off the mountain and drop a lame one to GMU this week either.
The #2 seed and a Dayton split are CRITICAL. Have to sweep VCU.
The only path I can see to a very good feeling heading to Brooklyn is at MINIMUM 8-3 the rest of the way, with losses @ Dayton, @Davidson, and @UMass. Preferably 9-2 with losses only @ Dayton and @ Davidson.
Like others have said - Virginia and Xavier "haven't beat anybody" - well neither have we. And we have the bad loss like everyone else. Potentially a Q4 loss. We need Bama to become a Q1. We need PC to get back to a Q2. And we need to beat Dayton once, and VCU again - while hoping VCU wins out the rest of their games.
In that scenario - even dropping another Q3 to UMass and Q2 @ Davidson - 4-4 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 6-2 Q3, 8-0 Q4 would get it done. Plus that scenario probably gets VCU in as well making the A10 a 3 bid.
No matter what - GMU = MUST. WIN.
Lost in my harebrained theory is the fact that if Bama goes up to the top 30, AND we beat VCU Friday AND they win most of the rest of their games AND get to the top 30 as well - we would now have 3 Q1 wins. Then add 1 Dayton win and voila - 4 Q1 wins.RhodyRam86 wrote: ↑4 years agoBlue Man wrote: ↑4 years agoAs much as I'd love to see the A10 be a 4 bid, it's starting to look like 2-3 is where we'll wind up.
Unfortunately for us, in a conference with very dwindling prospects for Q1 wins, we're becoming one of the few. The basement, after what we thought was a strong OOC, is still the damn basement and they all continue to plummet.
VCU, Richmond, and us are going to be penalized playing them. Even worse, we'll be throttled if we lose to them.
VCU and Richmond are battling us for what could be only 1 spot after Dayton. We can't let VCU get a Q1 against us on Friday. We can't fall off the mountain and drop a lame one to GMU this week either.
The #2 seed and a Dayton split are CRITICAL. Have to sweep VCU.
The only path I can see to a very good feeling heading to Brooklyn is at MINIMUM 8-3 the rest of the way, with losses @ Dayton, @Davidson, and @UMass. Preferably 9-2 with losses only @ Dayton and @ Davidson.
Like others have said - Virginia and Xavier "haven't beat anybody" - well neither have we. And we have the bad loss like everyone else. Potentially a Q4 loss. We need Bama to become a Q1. We need PC to get back to a Q2. And we need to beat Dayton once, and VCU again - while hoping VCU wins out the rest of their games.
In that scenario - even dropping another Q3 to UMass and Q2 @ Davidson - 4-4 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 6-2 Q3, 8-0 Q4 would get it done. Plus that scenario probably gets VCU in as well making the A10 a 3 bid.
No matter what - GMU = MUST. WIN.
Agree with most of this, but not sure how we get to 4 Q1 wins. We have VCU on the road as one. I think Alabama is a long shot to become Q1 as is at Davidson. Don't think VCU will be Q1 unless they beat us at the RC so that doesn't help. We'll have 2 opportunities vs. Dayton. I think the most we could realistically expect is 2 (VCU on the road and a split with Dayton).
I actually think 9-2 and a second place finish is the only way to get it done. I think it was TP that brought up the scenario of 4 swing games (VCU, Dayton, at Dayton and at Davidson). I think we need a split in those 4 games (preferably beat VCU and split Dayton) and we MUST win all other games.
We will probably also get a shot at one in the conference tourney, and don’t sleep on Davidson. I see them going on a little run like we did at the end of last year and getting into Q1 range for the away game.Blue Man wrote: ↑4 years agoLost in my harebrained theory is the fact that if Bama goes up to the top 30, AND we beat VCU Friday AND they win most of the rest of their games AND get to the top 30 as well - we would now have 3 Q1 wins. Then add 1 Dayton win and voila - 4 Q1 wins.RhodyRam86 wrote: ↑4 years agoBlue Man wrote: ↑4 years ago
As much as I'd love to see the A10 be a 4 bid, it's starting to look like 2-3 is where we'll wind up.
Unfortunately for us, in a conference with very dwindling prospects for Q1 wins, we're becoming one of the few. The basement, after what we thought was a strong OOC, is still the damn basement and they all continue to plummet.
VCU, Richmond, and us are going to be penalized playing them. Even worse, we'll be throttled if we lose to them.
VCU and Richmond are battling us for what could be only 1 spot after Dayton. We can't let VCU get a Q1 against us on Friday. We can't fall off the mountain and drop a lame one to GMU this week either.
The #2 seed and a Dayton split are CRITICAL. Have to sweep VCU.
The only path I can see to a very good feeling heading to Brooklyn is at MINIMUM 8-3 the rest of the way, with losses @ Dayton, @Davidson, and @UMass. Preferably 9-2 with losses only @ Dayton and @ Davidson.
Like others have said - Virginia and Xavier "haven't beat anybody" - well neither have we. And we have the bad loss like everyone else. Potentially a Q4 loss. We need Bama to become a Q1. We need PC to get back to a Q2. And we need to beat Dayton once, and VCU again - while hoping VCU wins out the rest of their games.
In that scenario - even dropping another Q3 to UMass and Q2 @ Davidson - 4-4 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 6-2 Q3, 8-0 Q4 would get it done. Plus that scenario probably gets VCU in as well making the A10 a 3 bid.
No matter what - GMU = MUST. WIN.
Agree with most of this, but not sure how we get to 4 Q1 wins. We have VCU on the road as one. I think Alabama is a long shot to become Q1 as is at Davidson. Don't think VCU will be Q1 unless they beat us at the RC so that doesn't help. We'll have 2 opportunities vs. Dayton. I think the most we could realistically expect is 2 (VCU on the road and a split with Dayton).
I actually think 9-2 and a second place finish is the only way to get it done. I think it was TP that brought up the scenario of 4 swing games (VCU, Dayton, at Dayton and at Davidson). I think we need a split in those 4 games (preferably beat VCU and split Dayton) and we MUST win all other games.
A lot of hope and a lot of what ifs in there. But that's what a message board is for!
Either way. Beat GMU on Tuesday. That's all that matters.
Just need to be there in person to make sure it doesn't happen...there should be a bus...Blue Man wrote: ↑4 years agoI agree. UMass is the boogeyman under my bed tho.Roz wrote: ↑4 years agoAt Umass. This team cant lose that game. I think losing both games to Dayton is more realisticBlue Man wrote: ↑4 years ago
As much as I'd love to see the A10 be a 4 bid, it's starting to look like 2-3 is where we'll wind up.
Unfortunately for us, in a conference with very dwindling prospects for Q1 wins, we're becoming one of the few. The basement, after what we thought was a strong OOC, is still the damn basement and they all continue to plummet.
VCU, Richmond, and us are going to be penalized playing them. Even worse, we'll be throttled if we lose to them.
VCU and Richmond are battling us for what could be only 1 spot after Dayton. We can't let VCU get a Q1 against us on Friday. We can't fall off the mountain and drop a lame one to GMU this week either.
The #2 seed and a Dayton split are CRITICAL. Have to sweep VCU.
The only path I can see to a very good feeling heading to Brooklyn is at MINIMUM 8-3 the rest of the way, with losses @ Dayton, @Davidson, and @UMass. Preferably 9-2 with losses only @ Dayton and @ Davidson.
Like others have said - Virginia and Xavier "haven't beat anybody" - well neither have we. And we have the bad loss like everyone else. Potentially a Q4 loss. We need Bama to become a Q1. We need PC to get back to a Q2. And we need to beat Dayton once, and VCU again - while hoping VCU wins out the rest of their games.
In that scenario - even dropping another Q3 to UMass and Q2 @ Davidson - 4-4 Q1, 5-2 Q2, 6-2 Q3, 8-0 Q4 would get it done. Plus that scenario probably gets VCU in as well making the A10 a 3 bid.
No matter what - GMU = MUST. WIN.
This is exactly what the P5 conferences want with the move to 20 league games.
easy there...easy....
Davidson was bound to bounce back with how talented Grady and JAG are.SmartyBarrett wrote: ↑4 years ago KenPom now has Rhody favored in all of their remaining games except the two Dayton ones. But the VCU game and the Davidson game are basically coin flips.
This might be asking a lot, but it would be nice if us, VCU, and Dayton could all lock up NCAA bids before the conference tourney,
If we beat VCU, and both URI and VCU beat Dayton (once) AND take care of business (no Q3/Q4 losses) - thats a very likely scenario with us having at least 3 Q1 wins.rambone 78 wrote: ↑4 years agoThis might be asking a lot, but it would be nice if us, VCU, and Dayton could all lock up NCAA bids before the conference tourney,
Of course Dayton is 99.99% there already,
The good news is Osun has a concussion, not some long-term knee/back/ankle issue. I think they're a solid team without Osun and will be VERY dangerous when he's back.Running Ram wrote: ↑4 years ago URI net report 01 28.png
Providence still creeping up may become Q2 win after all.
Bama still in range to become a Q1 win, they have 5 Q1 games left to play, if they just defend their home court in those games (2-3), go 3-1 in there Q2 games and take care of business with their remaining 3 Q3/Q4 games, they probably become a Q1 win for us.
We need the Bonnies to rattle off a few wins in a row to re-solidify the Q2 win, they are dangerously close to the cusp of Q2/Q3
put this together with Blue Man's Dayton, VCU, URI's split scenario and we could end up looking at
4-4 Q1
5-1 Q2
7-1 Q3
8-0 Q4
He will reportedly be back this weekend.Section104 wrote: ↑4 years agoThe good news is Osun has a concussion, not some long-term knee/back/ankle issue. I think they're a solid team without Osun and will be VERY dangerous when he's back.Running Ram wrote: ↑4 years ago URI net report 01 28.png
Providence still creeping up may become Q2 win after all.
Bama still in range to become a Q1 win, they have 5 Q1 games left to play, if they just defend their home court in those games (2-3), go 3-1 in there Q2 games and take care of business with their remaining 3 Q3/Q4 games, they probably become a Q1 win for us.
We need the Bonnies to rattle off a few wins in a row to re-solidify the Q2 win, they are dangerously close to the cusp of Q2/Q3
put this together with Blue Man's Dayton, VCU, URI's split scenario and we could end up looking at
4-4 Q1
5-1 Q2
7-1 Q3
8-0 Q4
Can we all celebrate the fact we're done with standard definition Stadium network for the year?Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑4 years ago Still so many games left. How many can we afford to lose?
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Kevin Pauga. Another KP/Sagarin type of site.Running Ram wrote: ↑4 years ago BTW,
does anyone know what KPI is?
if you look at the top of the team NET sheet posted above it has a list of metrics/ratings. NET, KPI, SOR, KemPom, BPI and Sagrins.
What the heck is KPI?
Huh? Stadium is crisp HD with professional production and commentary.Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago Can we all celebrate the fact we're done with standard definition Stadium network for the year?
Maybe this is an issue for me only? I have Xfinity in Nashville and "Stadium HD" looks like I'm watching a replay of our 1998 NCAA tournament on Youtube even though it's through the cable package. I know some Dayton fans had the same issues. I agree with the commentary.ATPTourFan wrote: ↑4 years agoHuh? Stadium is crisp HD with professional production and commentary.Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago Can we all celebrate the fact we're done with standard definition Stadium network for the year?
It’s shows how important blowing teams out is. That’s the biggest adjustment I’ve seen Cox make since LaSalle. You can see him give the rolling hands signal to run the offense even when we have a comfortable lead late in the game (which is what we should be doing anyways regardless of efficiency numbers). Very few possessions of hold the ball until 10 seconds left on the shot clock.Section104 wrote: ↑4 years ago The Dayton resume is actually much weaker than you'd think. That said, their ability to blow out teams, win the games they're supposed to win, and playing top 25 teams close away/neutral keeps their NET ranking near the top of the country.
They have no wins over teams guaranteed to make NCAA tournament (St. Mary's + home against VCU are top two wins) - St. Mary's is in a pretty good spot, but has recent losses to Winthrop, Santa Clara, and Pacific. I'd argue that our win @ VCU trumps any win on their schedule to-date.
I'm not saying they're not an incredibly talented team that has final four potential, because they are, but wins against Georgia and Virginia Tech don't move the needle that much. It will be really interesting to see how much weight the committee puts on NET. Would it be possible a top 5 NET gets dropped to a 4 seed?
It's not about how many - it's about to who.Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑4 years ago Still so many games left. How many can we afford to lose?
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I still think Davidson sucks and we can win that game on the road. They have the athleticism of a MAC team and one of our strengths is locking down opposing guards (their strength). I'm not as confident with the two Dayton games.Blue Man wrote: ↑4 years agoIt's not about how many - it's about to who.Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑4 years ago Still so many games left. How many can we afford to lose?
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There are 5 games we absolutely CANNOT lose. Anything in Q3/Q4. We already have 1 loss in that bracket and without a high amount of Q1 wins to back it up, that would end our at-large chances. IF we lose a Q3/Q4, we're looking at a must win VCU and 1 if not both Dayton games to balance out a resume with multiple bad losses.
Win out the rest of our home games is a must, and the Q3/Q4 road games. IF we do that - you can survive a loss at Davidson and at Dayton.