KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:14 pm**

as much of a suckpill as last night was...picking myself up, dusting myself off, and getting set to get popped on the nose ag---, er, I mean, on the brady1 train. Tix are already paid for, might as well...

GO RHODY!

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:22 pm**

208, this is a real tough one to take. Won't be there Wednesday. I'm sure i'll be ready to get dissapointed again by the VCU game.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:23 pm**

UCH21377 wrote:208, this is a real tough one to take. Won't be there Wednesday. I'm sure i'll be ready to my heart broken again by the VCU game.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:40 pm**

Rhody15 wrote:
ramster wrote:
SmartyBarrett wrote:
Strongly disagree. CBS had them in as last four in as part of the official NCAA selection committee bracket reveal this afternoon. Official release only ranked the top 16, but Jerry Palm filled in the rest based on that. Rams as an 11 seed playing a play-in vs Ohio State.

NEED to win out, though. A win over VCU gets them on the right side of the bubble.

Also, Cuse and Seton Hall lost today. There's two bubble teams that were ahead of URI that now should be behind them.
I strongly disagree with TP as well. Our chances are not dead. Still a lot of basketball still to be played.
Wait, so Syracuse, Seton Hall were ahead of us..we lost, and they both lost...so how in the hell can you possibly have us jumping them when we lost a home game?

That literally makes ZERO sense.

They were ahead of us as of today. The bracket reveal and subsequent CBS projection came at about 12:30 this afternoon.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 7:58 pm**

UCH21377 wrote:208, this is a real tough one to take. Won't be there Wednesday. I'm sure i'll be ready to get dissapointed again by the VCU game.

Keeping in mind that I'm still relatively "new"...this was the toughest one so far for me...some might say the PC games - last year and this year...take your pick. I get the rivalry, but NCAAT is a way way bigger prize and last night was more relevant to that. This one seemed to have so much at stake, and was so 'within the grasp'...the kind of game and situation you buy season tix for...took all I could muster to be civil on the way out.

But...I'll be there Wednesday, and who knows, maybe at St. Joe's, too (car pool, anyone?). And, my son is confident they're going to win it all in Pittsburgh, who wants to miss that?...They've gotta bust out sometime, right? right...??

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:31 pm**

How the hell can anybody think we're ahead of Syracuse? Look who they've beaten recently.

We couldn't beat ANY ONE of those teams.....If we were in the ACC, we'd be a bottom feeder. Even the bottom feeders in most leagues occasionally beat the top teams. We NEVER DO. Even FUCKING FORDHAM has beaten VCU!!!!!!!!!! And UMass beat Dayton!!!!!!!!!

We have one good win.....and people think we're in, or really close. Unbelievable.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:43 pm**

Bone, really man what do you do at that casino. You got to be a dealer @ the 5 dollar table watching people lose day in day out. Life is to short Bone your not DOOMED! Good things are on your horizon DOOMBONE!

REVERSE THE CURSE!

GO RHODY!

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:50 pm**

Finishing 6-0 or maybe 5-1 with one of those five wins being VCU is the only way I can see us getting an at large. We don't exactly have an easy schedule coming up either...three road games and VCU and Davidson at home. Fordham is the only game that looks like a gimmie.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 8:55 pm**

josephski wrote:Finishing 6-0 or maybe 5-1 with one of those five wins being VCU is the only way I can see us getting an at large. We don't exactly have an easy schedule coming up either...three road games and VCU and Davidson at home. Fordham is the only game that looks like a gimmie.

The Computer says 48%!

REVERSE THE CURSE!

GO RHODY!

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:04 pm**

5-1 or 6-0 with a win over VCU...then reach the A10T finals with a win over either VCU or Dayton.....

That's the only path to an at large.......and it will happen if hell freezes over.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:14 pm**

DOOMBONE, that a boy. There is hope for WE'RE DOOMBONED!

REVERSE THE CURSE!

GO RHODY!

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:35 pm**

I'm baking in the fact that I give this team 0% chance of running the table to finish the season. A leopard doesn't change its spots.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:00 pm**

SmartyBarrett wrote:
TruePoint wrote:At large is dead.
Strongly disagree. CBS had them in as last four in as part of the official NCAA selection committee bracket reveal this afternoon. Official release only ranked the top 16, but Jerry Palm filled in the rest based on that. Rams as an 11 seed playing a play-in vs Ohio State.

NEED to win out, though. A win over VCU gets them on the right side of the bubble.

Also, Cuse and Seton Hall lost today. There's two bubble teams that were ahead of URI that now should be behind them.

There was no relationship to what the NCAA decided and CBS's bracket. That's just one man (Palm's) opinion.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:09 pm**

TP, you've come home........it's a sad thing really, but the truth...this team and coach are underachievers.

The difference between us and Dayton isn't much overall on the surface....but underneath, they do a lot of the little things that are necessary to win, and we don't.

The only chance I see for Dan to turn into a winner at this level, is to try and seek out the "winners" in his profession and get their advice, and use it to his advantage.....put the ego and stubbornness away and accept constructive criticism from peers who know how and have won the big games......

I know Dan has talked to other coaches, but what has he learned from them? It's been 5 years at this level and the same mistakes keep happening.

His teams play unfocused and undisciplined basketball....if you have a weak point, when the pressure is turned up those weak points are exposed....you can't hide.

Like at the FT line....his players can make the shots when there's no pressure, but when the heat gets turned up they wilt.....

As a comparison...Archie has been a coach at Dayton for 5 years...same as Dan...and he's younger. And his teams have gotten better and his coaching has gotten better since those first 2 years when he struggled.....is it all the players talent or has he done a better job of "coaching them up" than Dan has? the evidence imo points to coaching......Archie has improved far more than Dan.

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:36 pm**

scine20 wrote:
SmartyBarrett wrote:
TruePoint wrote:At large is dead.
Strongly disagree. CBS had them in as last four in as part of the official NCAA selection committee bracket reveal this afternoon. Official release only ranked the top 16, but Jerry Palm filled in the rest based on that. Rams as an 11 seed playing a play-in vs Ohio State.

NEED to win out, though. A win over VCU gets them on the right side of the bubble.

Also, Cuse and Seton Hall lost today. There's two bubble teams that were ahead of URI that now should be behind them.
There was no relationship to what the NCAA decided and CBS's bracket. That's just one man (Palm's) opinion.

Is there an echo in here?

Posted: **Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:06 pm**

SmartyBarrett wrote:
scine20 wrote:
SmartyBarrett wrote:
Strongly disagree. CBS had them in as last four in as part of the official NCAA selection committee bracket reveal this afternoon. Official release only ranked the top 16, but Jerry Palm filled in the rest based on that. Rams as an 11 seed playing a play-in vs Ohio State.

NEED to win out, though. A win over VCU gets them on the right side of the bubble.

Also, Cuse and Seton Hall lost today. There's two bubble teams that were ahead of URI that now should be behind them.
There was no relationship to what the NCAA decided and CBS's bracket. That's just one man (Palm's) opinion.
Is there an echo in here?

You made it sound like Palm's opinion meant a lot more than just 1 man's bracket projections.

Posted: **Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:51 am**

scine20 wrote:
SmartyBarrett wrote:
scine20 wrote: There was no relationship to what the NCAA decided and CBS's bracket. That's just one man (Palm's) opinion.
Is there an echo in here?
You made it sound like Palm's opinion meant a lot more than just 1 man's bracket projections.

Doesn't mean more, but nice that it was part of a nationally televised event.

Posted: **Sun Feb 12, 2017 2:59 am**

I agree those that say if we win out in the reg season and then lose in the a10 finals we will make it our RPI should be high enough. Is that scenario likely no but it's possible

Also the schools that skip the NIT are usually the high major teams that dance every year and suddenly had an off year not programs like us

Posted: **Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:40 am**

Whatever it it worth, lunardi has us as 5th team out this morning

Posted: **Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:58 am**

gorhody89 wrote:Whatever it it worth, lunardi has us as 5th team out this morning

That just goes to show you how weak the bubble is / we'd be solidly in the field had we not choked in almost every single big game this year.

Posted: **Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:11 pm**

Rhody15 wrote:
gorhody89 wrote:Whatever it it worth, lunardi has us as 5th team out this morning

That just goes to show you how weak the bubble is / we'd be solidly in the field had we not choked in almost every single big game this year.

Yeah all you have to do is look at Dayton and VCU and see how great their seeds are. When all VCU has beaten is Dayton and Middle Tennessee. Dayton's best wins are us twice and they are comfortably in.
If we beat Dayton and Houston we are very much in.

A lot of bubble teams lost this weekend as well. Including us.

Posted: **Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:16 pm**

The level of frustration is off the charts......a NCAAT bid was on a silver platter for us.....and we gagged it...again.

Posted: **Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:19 pm**

If they were 'in' already, it would take away some of the excitement of the rest of the regular season...now, every single game means something...how awesome is that?

Posted: **Mon Feb 13, 2017 1:26 pm**

208, that's a hell of a way to put it.......good luck tonight at the show......it's downstairs this time......

I would go but I've heard enough excuses.......

Posted: **Mon Feb 13, 2017 3:28 pm**

rambone 78 wrote:208, that's a hell of a way to put it.......good luck tonight at the show......it's downstairs this time......

I would go but I've heard enough excuses.......

I get that a lot... thanks for the location tip!

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:58 am**

Daytons 2 best wins are URI and that's not saying much and they are a 9 seed. They must not have any bad losses ??

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:11 am**

So, amazingly, URI is 3rd team OUT in the BracketMatrix updated last night.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi has Rhody as 5th team out. Not terrible, but lots of work to do.

CBS's Jerry Palm has Rhody as 4th team OUT (and Providence as penultimate team IN)

ESPN's BubbleWatch doesn't paint a rosy picture for the Rams, but they're still on the page.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:41 am**

I think a lot depends on how the committee weighs RPI. The top 16 were super RPI heavy, but who knows how it will be on SS. If its RPI heavy rather than Kenpom thats better for us (even though its probs less accurate)

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:10 am**

Our KenPom situation isn't terrible. We actually went up a spot because our offensive and defensive efficiency vs Dayton was decent. I just fear the average Power 5 teams that will eat up all the spots like last year.

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:25 am**

If I was on the committee, I'd be looking for teams that I felt could beat better teams. Except for Cincy, we haven't shown that we can.

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:53 pm**

Cincy feels like it was years ago. I wonder if that might be considered to be a fluke win now.

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:06 pm**

Billyboy78 wrote:Cincy feels like it was years ago. I wonder if that might be considered to be a fluke win now.

Well right now it looks like we hit our peak in the fourth game of the season...probably not a good thing in the tournament committee's eyes.

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:00 pm**

I think if you are judging URI honestly, the problem they will have now going forward is what I would call "movement games."
Of their last 6 games on RPI Forecast, 5 are against teams with RPI's above 100, and then there is VCU.
The other 5 games (even if LaSalle sneaks into the Top 100) really won't do anything for URI with a win, besides keep them stable.
It's good to be stable, but if other close teams notch quality wins (and some of those P5 schools will have plenty of chances), it'll make them easier to pass. On the flip side, they should have easier time securing wins, while the others may be separated out by the tougher conference schedules.
But the reality is clear, for URI to feel like they have a good chance at an at-large bid on Selection Sunday, they probably need that 6-0 close to the season, plus at least one good in the A10T, but if you look at the projected RPI Forecast for the A10, there may be only 2 teams capable of giving them that.
It's a tall order, not impossible, but given the sample size, hard to feel confident in.

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:11 pm**

RJ, if you are on RPI Forecast, then 75% of the RPI is already predetermined at this point, going into A10 tournament. We know our opponents and we reasonably know their records and their opponents' records.

The only major unknown that can move the needle is URI's OWN record. The game by game win probability determines to what extent the Expected RPI can move up or down. It's pretty simple at this point when talking about pre-A10 tournament RPI.

With the Wizard we can play around with plugging in potential opponents in Pitt to guess what the Selection Sunday RPI will be.

I agree, no more losses are OK going into the A10's. That would set the team up with a bye and nice seed. Then they'd play a quarterfinal game against a decent (hopefully) team and then hopefully a few games against Top 6 A10 teams in Semis and Final if they get that far.

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:18 pm**

For me though, it's not even about URI's RPI ... It's about building a resume ... They may end up with an RPI around 35, but they might never get serious tournament consideration because of the overall resume ... Right now their best true road win is against Davidson and their forecasted RPI of 117. They are wearing the neutral win against Cincy as a badge of honor (as they should), but right now that is the only positive on the resume. It's hard to go 2-7 against Top 100 teams to date (and 1-6 on the road), and feel you deserve a bid. So it's about trying to get on the positive side of the bubble given their current resume, and how can they do it? It's not impossible, just quite challenging.

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:26 pm**

rjsuperfly66 wrote:For me though, it's not even about URI's RPI ... It's about building a resume ... They may end up with an RPI around 35, but they might never get serious tournament consideration because of the overall resume ... Right now their best true road win is against Davidson and their forecasted RPI of 117. They are wearing the neutral win against Cincy as a badge of honor (as they should), but right now that is the only positive on the resume. It's hard to go 2-7 against Top 100 teams to date (and 1-6 on the road), and feel you deserve a bid. So it's about trying to get on the positive side of the bubble given their current resume, and how can they do it? It's not impossible, just quite challenging.

A realistic , very well said and unbiased post without a doubt

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:30 pm**

Totally agree, RJ. That's why RPI or not, they're in must win out to the A10 semis at-worst mode.

Posted: **Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:31 pm**

"Rhode Island [16-8 (8-4), RPI: 40, SOS: 41] So, about that Dayton loss. It's rough enough, under any circumstances, to lose a one-point affair at home. It's much worse when it happens during a game in which you led 73-69 with 24.4 seconds to go. Dayton's Xeyrius Williams hit two 3-pointers in the final 18.9 seconds, including the game winner with 7.2 seconds left. The Flyers shot 41.1 percent from the field on the evening. That loss hurts, and it speaks to the larger problem for Rhode Island moving forward: There just aren't that many good opportunities for a bubble team in the Atlantic 10. Dayton and VCU are pretty much it -- five of the Rams' last six games come against teams with RPIs outside the top 100 -- and even those two aren't exactly high single-digit seeds in their own right. URI gets VCU at home on Feb. 25, but it's a hard road ahead."

ESPN Article:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Supports my case that RPI kind of goes out the window with this team, since they need more wins against top 100 teams to separate themselves from other bubble teams. I don't see URI making it to the tournament unless they win all remaining games of the season and "AT LEAST" get to the A10 finals. Even then, they might be hard pressed to get in. They likely will have to win the A10 to get in, in my opinion.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:33 am**

We have no one to blame but ourselves if we don't get selected

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:05 am**

rjsuperfly66 wrote:For me though, it's not even about URI's RPI ... It's about building a resume ... They may end up with an RPI around 35, but they might never get serious tournament consideration because of the overall resume ... Right now their best true road win is against Davidson and their forecasted RPI of 117. They are wearing the neutral win against Cincy as a badge of honor (as they should), but right now that is the only positive on the resume. It's hard to go 2-7 against Top 100 teams to date (and 1-6 on the road), and feel you deserve a bid. So it's about trying to get on the positive side of the bubble given their current resume, and how can they do it? It's not impossible, just quite challenging.

I don't think a 35 RPI does it. That means we go 5-1 the rest of the season.
I think we need to win all 6 remaining games to finish 28.1 RPI, then get bye in A10 Tournament and then win first 2 games in A10 to get the Finals. No room for error now. Maybe could win the first game of the A10 in the quarterfinals then lose in the Semi-Finals, but that would be a long shot imho.

Record/RPI/Probability
22-8 (28.1 )15.34%
21-9 (33.7) 34.73%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Rhode%20Island.html

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:46 am**

I wonder what, if any, impact Bernadette McGlade's statement last year in regards to St Bonnie's will have this year. Really hard to imagine two years in a row an A-10 team with better than a 30 rpi doesn't get in. Could be wrong but I just don't see it!

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:03 am**

Well if [when] we lose 2 more conference games, the at large discussion will be put to bed once and for all.....

Will have to win the A10T then.......sure

Actually with 2 more losses, finishing top 4 and getting the bye until Friday is not a sure thing, seeing that the teams we could be fighting with would be Richmond and GM......assuming a loss Saturday.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:40 am**

Rhody15 wrote:Can anyone provide legitimate reasons why you think we still have a chance at an at large bid? Or how we can have confidence in winning out, with road games at GM, at La Salle, and home VCU?

I'll take shot at it Rhody15:
This is from today RPI Forecast for the remaining 6 games
2-15 Fordham (218.3) HOME 94% (16.9 favored)
2-18 George Mason (113.7) AWAY 69% (5.5 favored)
2-21 La Salle (100.9) AWAY 69% (5.3 favored)
2-25 VCU (25.8) HOME 61% (3.0 favored)
3-1 Saint Joseph's (153.8) AWAY 72% (6.5 favored)
3-4 Davidson (117.1) HOME 77% (8.1 favored)

Record/RPI/Probability
22-8 (28.1) 15.34% - Must win all 6 remaining games
21-9 (33.7) 34.73% - Must win 5 of 6 remaining games

Then the A10 Tournament which will be critically important to NCAA Bid determination.
So we have a 61.8% probability of finishing the A10 Season with a 33.7 or better RPI
The A10 Conference Performance will be a large determining factor as to whether we get in or not.

Why do I think we can still get an NCAA Bid?

Let's compare the 2 games with Dayton:
Game 1 @ Dayton:
- URI lost by 3 points 67-64
- Hassan Martin only played 20 minutes due to still recovering from Quad injury. 3-5 FG, 1-2 FTs, 5 rebounds, 1 block, 2 assists, 1 steal, 7 points
- Jared Terrell 31 minutes, 2-5 FG, 2-3 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 4 TOs, 3 fouls, 7 points
- Kuran Iverson 32 minutes, 6-12 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 4 TOs, 3 fouls, 14 points
- Jeff Dowtin only played 14 minutes, 2-3 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 TO, 3 fouls, 5 points
- Kendall Pollard 31 minutes, 8-16 FGs, 2-5 FTs, 5 rebounds, 18 points
- Scoochie Smith 38 minutes, 8-13 FGs, 3-5 FTs, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 1 TO, 21 points
- Xeyrius Williams 15 minutes, 0-2 FGs, 2-2 FTs, 2 rebounds, 2 points
- Charles Cooke - DID NOT PLAY

Game 2 Home vs Dayton
- URI lost by 1 point 75-74
- Hassan Martin played 32 minutes. 4-6 FG, 7-9 FTs, 5 rebounds, 3 block, 2 TOs, 2 fouls 15 points
- Jared Terrell 36 minutes, 4-10 FG, 5-8 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 2 steals, 2 TOs, 2 fouls, 15 points
- Kuran Iverson 33 minutes, 7-12 FGs, 3-4 FTs, 7 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal, 1 blocks, 1 TOs, 2 fouls, 20 points
- Jeff Dowtin only played 23 minutes due to foul trouble, 2-4 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 2 blocked shots, 3 fouls, 5 points
- Kendall Pollard 33 minutes, 4-9 FGs, 8-10 FTs, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals, 1 block, 3 fouls, 18 points
- Scoochie Smith 33 minutes, 3-10 FGs, 1-2 FTs, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 3 TO, 4 fouls, 7 points
- Xeyrius Williams 19 minutes, 5-7 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 4 fouls, 13 points
- Charles Cooke - 36 minutes, 4-11 FGs, 5-6 FTs, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 TO, 3 fouls, 13 points
- If we don't get offensive goal tending on the EC shot late in the game we win, it's that close

Why do I think we will beat Dayton in the A10 Tournament?
- We played them very tough in both games - combined 4 points in 2 losses
- Our players know that they can beat Dayton
- The second game we played Dayton included Martin healthy. Iverson again had a solid game in the 2nd game with 20 points, 7 rebounds
- Smith was less effective going only 3-10 FGs - we played much better defense on him
- Cooke played the 2nd game with 13 points, 8 rebounds in 36 minutes - significant difference from 1st game when he DNP. But even with Cooke back and with WIlliams having an unexpectedly good game we still played Dayton tough and to the wire
- Williams has a much better game in the 2nd game with 5 rebounds and 13 points in 19 minutes
- Dayton is playing their basketball of the season, but so are we having won 6 of last 8

I think we beat Dayton in the A10 Tournament

As for VCU:
- They are led primarily by JeQuan Lewis averaging 15.6 ppg and 4.5 assists per game and by Justin Tillman averaging 12.5 ppg and 8.6 rebounds per game.
- I think we match up well against VCU and just as Dowtin has done a good job defensively against the likes of Pipkins of UMASS, Smith of Dayton, Gibbs of Davidson, I think he will limit Lewis from having a big game against us. I think Martin and Iverson match up well against Cox and Tillman respectively.

I think we take VCU on our home court as well as in the A10 Tournament

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:49 am**

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:28 pm**

ramster wrote:
rjsuperfly66 wrote:For me though, it's not even about URI's RPI ... It's about building a resume ... They may end up with an RPI around 35, but they might never get serious tournament consideration because of the overall resume ... Right now their best true road win is against Davidson and their forecasted RPI of 117. They are wearing the neutral win against Cincy as a badge of honor (as they should), but right now that is the only positive on the resume. It's hard to go 2-7 against Top 100 teams to date (and 1-6 on the road), and feel you deserve a bid. So it's about trying to get on the positive side of the bubble given their current resume, and how can they do it? It's not impossible, just quite challenging.
I don't think a 35 RPI does it. That means we go 5-1 the rest of the season.
I think we need to win all 6 remaining games to finish 28.1 RPI, then get bye in A10 Tournament and then win first 2 games in A10 to get the Finals. No room for error now. Maybe could win the first game of the A10 in the quarterfinals then lose in the Semi-Finals, but that would be a long shot imho.

Record/RPI/Probability
22-8 (28.1 )15.34%
21-9 (33.7) 34.73%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Rhode%20Island.html

Allegedly the committee takes into account injuries. Look at the combined # missed games for Martin and Garrett and you could strengthen our argument.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:00 pm**

ramster wrote:
rjsuperfly66 wrote:For me though, it's not even about URI's RPI ... It's about building a resume ... They may end up with an RPI around 35, but they might never get serious tournament consideration because of the overall resume ... Right now their best true road win is against Davidson and their forecasted RPI of 117. They are wearing the neutral win against Cincy as a badge of honor (as they should), but right now that is the only positive on the resume. It's hard to go 2-7 against Top 100 teams to date (and 1-6 on the road), and feel you deserve a bid. So it's about trying to get on the positive side of the bubble given their current resume, and how can they do it? It's not impossible, just quite challenging.
I don't think a 35 RPI does it. That means we go 5-1 the rest of the season.
I think we need to win all 6 remaining games to finish 28.1 RPI, then get bye in A10 Tournament and then win first 2 games in A10 to get the Finals. No room for error now. Maybe could win the first game of the A10 in the quarterfinals then lose in the Semi-Finals, but that would be a long shot imho.

Record/RPI/Probability
22-8 (28.1 )15.34%
21-9 (33.7) 34.73%

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Rhode%20Island.html

I agree with this assessment.

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:40 pm**

i'm just gonna leave this here

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:46 pm**

No argument from me Twisted

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:02 pm**

ramster wrote:
Rhody15 wrote:Can anyone provide legitimate reasons why you think we still have a chance at an at large bid? Or how we can have confidence in winning out, with road games at GM, at La Salle, and home VCU?
I'll take shot at it Rhody15:
This is from today RPI Forecast for the remaining 6 games
2-15 Fordham (218.3) HOME 94% (16.9 favored)
2-18 George Mason (113.7) AWAY 69% (5.5 favored)
2-21 La Salle (100.9) AWAY 69% (5.3 favored)
2-25 VCU (25.8) HOME 61% (3.0 favored)
3-1 Saint Joseph's (153.8) AWAY 72% (6.5 favored)
3-4 Davidson (117.1) HOME 77% (8.1 favored)

Record/RPI/Probability
22-8 (28.1) 15.34% - Must win all 6 remaining games
21-9 (33.7) 34.73% - Must win 5 of 6 remaining games

Then the A10 Tournament which will be critically important to NCAA Bid determination.
So we have a 61.8% probability of finishing the A10 Season with a 33.7 or better RPI
The A10 Conference Performance will be a large determining factor as to whether we get in or not.

Why do I think we can still get an NCAA Bid?

Let's compare the 2 games with Dayton:
Game 1 @ Dayton:
- URI lost by 3 points 67-64
- Hassan Martin only played 20 minutes due to still recovering from Quad injury. 3-5 FG, 1-2 FTs, 5 rebounds, 1 block, 2 assists, 1 steal, 7 points
- Jared Terrell 31 minutes, 2-5 FG, 2-3 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 4 TOs, 3 fouls, 7 points
- Kuran Iverson 32 minutes, 6-12 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 4 TOs, 3 fouls, 14 points
- Jeff Dowtin only played 14 minutes, 2-3 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 TO, 3 fouls, 5 points
- Kendall Pollard 31 minutes, 8-16 FGs, 2-5 FTs, 5 rebounds, 18 points
- Scoochie Smith 38 minutes, 8-13 FGs, 3-5 FTs, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 1 TO, 21 points
- Xeyrius Williams 15 minutes, 0-2 FGs, 2-2 FTs, 2 rebounds, 2 points
- Charles Cooke - DID NOT PLAY

Game 2 Home vs Dayton
- URI lost by 1 point 75-74
- Hassan Martin played 32 minutes. 4-6 FG, 7-9 FTs, 5 rebounds, 3 block, 2 TOs, 2 fouls 15 points
- Jared Terrell 36 minutes, 4-10 FG, 5-8 FTs, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 2 steals, 2 TOs, 2 fouls, 15 points
- Kuran Iverson 33 minutes, 7-12 FGs, 3-4 FTs, 7 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal, 1 blocks, 1 TOs, 2 fouls, 20 points
- Jeff Dowtin only played 23 minutes due to foul trouble, 2-4 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 2 blocked shots, 3 fouls, 5 points
- Kendall Pollard 33 minutes, 4-9 FGs, 8-10 FTs, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals, 1 block, 3 fouls, 18 points
- Scoochie Smith 33 minutes, 3-10 FGs, 1-2 FTs, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 3 TO, 4 fouls, 7 points
- Xeyrius Williams 19 minutes, 5-7 FGs, 1-1 FTs, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 4 fouls, 13 points
- Charles Cooke - 36 minutes, 4-11 FGs, 5-6 FTs, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 TO, 3 fouls, 13 points
- If we don't get offensive goal tending on the EC shot late in the game we win, it's that close

Why do I think we will beat Dayton in the A10 Tournament?
- We played them very tough in both games - combined 4 points in 2 losses
- Our players know that they can beat Dayton
- The second game we played Dayton included Martin healthy. Iverson again had a solid game in the 2nd game with 20 points, 7 rebounds
- Smith was less effective going only 3-10 FGs - we played much better defense on him
- Cooke played the 2nd game with 13 points, 8 rebounds in 36 minutes - significant difference from 1st game when he DNP. But even with Cooke back and with WIlliams having an unexpectedly good game we still played Dayton tough and to the wire
- Williams has a much better game in the 2nd game with 5 rebounds and 13 points in 19 minutes
- Dayton is playing their basketball of the season, but so are we having won 6 of last 8

I think we beat Dayton in the A10 Tournament

As for VCU:
- They are led primarily by JeQuan Lewis averaging 15.6 ppg and 4.5 assists per game and by Justin Tillman averaging 12.5 ppg and 8.6 rebounds per game.
- I think we match up well against VCU and just as Dowtin has done a good job defensively against the likes of Pipkins of UMASS, Smith of Dayton, Gibbs of Davidson, I think he will limit Lewis from having a big game against us. I think Martin and Iverson match up well against Cox and Tillman respectively.

I think we take VCU on our home court as well as in the A10 Tournament

Lol....

Posted: **Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:13 pm**

Shut this down.

KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

2016-17 Bracketology

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