KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:24 pm**

rhodysurf wrote: ↑4 years ago
Rhody83 wrote: ↑4 years ago
reckless jake wrote: ↑4 years ago On the Warren Nolan site (www.warrennolan.com) individual team sheets break down the Quads both by Net and RPI.
When I look at the Team Sheets I don’t understand why VCU is 36 and URI is 39.
VCU’s big win is against LSU and LSU is now #28.
VCU is 1-4 vs Q1 and 2-2 vs Q2
URI is 1-3 vs Q1 and 6-1 vs Q2

Combined VCU 3-6 Q1& 2 and URI 7-4

The only explanation I could see is URI’s Q3 loss to Brown. Seems like to much weight on one loss.
Efficiency. VCU has won a bunch of games by 20+, just crushing lower opponents. While URI has more wins, they are not as efficient in those wins. They rarely crush an opponent start to finish, even the chumps.

It wont make a big difference though. The actual NET rating doesnt matter as much as quadrant wins do

They have no bad losses. We lost to Brown.

Had we beat Brown, we’re probably up at 30 in NET. Also probably ranked.

Can’t take it back now. For all we know the back to back losses galvanized this team into a monster.

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:33 pm**

rambone 78 wrote: ↑4 years ago Check out Lunardi's bracket on espn.com.

For once that would be awesome.

That would be cinderellable for sure!

Just beating Ohio State would be great to me.

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:06 pm**

Theres so much that can change from now to March, but this is fun. (please play in Tampa or Albany)

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:38 pm**

Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑4 years ago Theres so much that can change from now to March, but this is fun. (please play in Tampa or Albany)

Please just play in the tournament.

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:43 pm**

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago
rambone 78 wrote: ↑4 years ago Check out Lunardi's bracket on espn.com.

For once that would be awesome.
That would be cinderellable for sure!

Just beating Ohio State would be great to me.

OHowIHateOhioState.

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:50 pm**

What seed are we on Lunardi bracket ??

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:56 pm**

reef wrote: ↑4 years ago What seed are we on Lunardi bracket ??

According to this we are - a 10 seed.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:05 pm**

Jeez play Ohio State in Cleveland Ohio

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:31 pm**

reef wrote: ↑4 years ago Jeez play Ohio State in Cleveland Ohio

The bracketologists have no idea who a team will play. They are really just predicting who will get in and what seed each team will be.

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:16 pm**

reef wrote: ↑4 years ago Jeez play Ohio State in Cleveland Ohio

Better place to beat them!

Can you imagine going to the game, Ohio State fans being all ignorant about us, because if you talk to any power 5 fan they know NOTHING about anything other than their team. They might know something about their conference constituents. They'd be so mad and ashamed if Rhody beat them.

I'd talk soooo much shit.

Posted: **Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:39 pm**

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago
reef wrote: ↑4 years ago Jeez play Ohio State in Cleveland Ohio
Better place to beat them!

Can you imagine going to the game, Ohio State fans being all ignorant about us, because if you talk to any power 5 fan they know NOTHING about anything other than their team. They might know something about their conference constituents. They'd be so mad and ashamed if Rhody beat them.

I'd talk soooo much shit.

Remember, when you address them, you need to say THE Ohio State...so f'n conceded

Posted: **Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:42 pm**

Browsing the UD board, and they have a seeding potential thread they keep live all season. Amazing to think on January 5 we were the A10 6th seed and and about a 5% shot at a top 2 finish, now the projected A10 2 seed and 75% shot at top 2

Our growth during conference play has been a great thing

Posted: **Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:59 pm**

I'd love to see URI play Ohio State. In my opinion, that team is ridiculously overrated. It would make for a great 7 - 10 upset!
Although, I doubt that will be the team URI actually plays if they make the tournament, but it's nice to dream.
Also, on a side note, I doubt West Virginia or Creighton would be looking forward to playing Rhody if they're in the tournament as well.

Posted: **Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:11 pm**

The Dude wrote: ↑4 years ago I'd love to see URI play Ohio State. In my opinion, that team is ridiculously overrated. It would make for a great 7 - 10 upset!
Although, I doubt that will be the team URI actually plays if they make the tournament, but it's nice to dream.
Also, on a side note, I doubt West Virginia or Creighton would be looking forward to playing Rhody if they're in the tournament as well.

No doubt about it. There are many overrated teams at the 5-11 seems from the power 5 conferences. We played two in the first round of the tourney in Creighton and Oklahoma

Posted: **Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:04 am**

This morning's update from Bracketville has us as a 10 seed taking on Michigan in Greensboro. He no longer has us on the bubble.

Posted: **Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:28 am**

Jerry Palm of CBS sports (huge B10 homer) has URI as an 11 seed. second to last bye game.

Posted: **Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:35 am**

Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑4 years ago Jerry Palm of CBS sports (huge B10 homer) has URI as an 11 seed. second to last bye game.

I can't say I've followed him enough to know that he's a Big 10 homer, but I can tell you according to bracketmatrix he's the 85th ranked prognosticator, so take that projection for what it's worth

Posted: **Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:57 am**

Huge Purdue guy

Posted: **Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:59 am**

Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑4 years ago Jerry Palm of CBS sports (huge B10 homer) has URI as an 11 seed. second to last bye game.

Def. a huge Purdue fan. Also def. a below-average bracketologist.

Posted: **Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:07 am**

Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑4 years ago Jerry Palm of CBS sports (huge B10 homer) has URI as an 11 seed. second to last bye game.

Always check your sources. Palm is on the trash side of bracket predicting. #85/133

Bracketville is the best in terms of accuracy year in/year out.

Trust the matrix though, the compilation has Rhody as the best 10 seed, with an average ranking of 9.54.

Personally, I'd almost rather be an 11 seed (or a 6) - than a 7/10 or 8/9 - depending on the matchups of course.

Rhody got screwed with their matchup 2 years ago as the 7 seed. Duke was one of 3 teams our guards would have problems with because we couldn't match the height. If we had been an 8 seed in the south for example, we'd have run into a matchup with either #1 Virginia, or #16 UMBC.

If you swapped #7 URI and #8 Creighton that year our matchups would've been as follows:

vs K State - great matchup for URI. K State had a stud in the middle but very young team and nothing outside of that.
vs UMBC - self-explanatory.
sweet 16 vs Kentucky - would've loved to go up against a team of freshman that wasn't huge
elite 8 vs loyola chicago...

But that's the NCAA...it's all about the matchups, and playing well. There's a road forward no matter what at-large seed you are:

SEED F4 CG NC
1---- 57 34 22
2---- 29 12 5
3---- 17 12 4
4---- 13 3 1
5---- 7 3 0
6---- 3 2 1
7---- 3 1 1
8---- 5 3 1
9---- 1 0 0
10----1 0 0
11----4 0 0

The ranking really doesn't matter at the end of the day. Just get in. You could have an AWFUL matchup as a 5 seed and be out first round. You could have a GREAT matchup as an 11 seed and be a final four team. Just hope we do enough to get in and our leaders will take care of the rest.

BEAT DAYTON.

Posted: **Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:43 am**

The new guy who does ESPN Bubble Watch is truly awful. Just one example, he doesn't have one SEC team as a "lock", and has Auburn, Kentucky, LSU as "Should be in." Yea, the teams with a NET of 15, 22, and 27 aren't currently locks to make the tournament...

Also says sweeping Dayton would help our tournament outlook.

Uhhh ya think???

Last time I checked, sweeping a Top 10 team in the country should probably help your chances of getting in...

Posted: **Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:16 am**

Rhody15 wrote: ↑4 years ago The new guy who does ESPN Bubble Watch is truly awful. Just one example, he doesn't have one SEC team as a "lock", and has Auburn, Kentucky, LSU as "Should be in." Yea, the teams with a NET of 15, 22, and 27 aren't currently locks to make the tournament...

Also says sweeping Dayton would help our tournament outlook.

Uhhh ya think???

Last time I checked, sweeping a Top 10 team in the country should probably help your chances of getting in...

Yeah Eamonn Brennan is at The Athletic now. Much better to read his.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:16 am**

Blue Man wrote: ↑4 years ago
Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑4 years ago Jerry Palm of CBS sports (huge B10 homer) has URI as an 11 seed. second to last bye game.
Always check your sources. Palm is on the trash side of bracket predicting. #85/133

Bracketville is the best in terms of accuracy year in/year out.

Trust the matrix though, the compilation has Rhody as the best 10 seed, with an average ranking of 9.54.

Personally, I'd almost rather be an 11 seed (or a 6) - than a 7/10 or 8/9 - depending on the matchups of course.

Rhody got screwed with their matchup 2 years ago as the 7 seed. Duke was one of 3 teams our guards would have problems with because we couldn't match the height. If we had been an 8 seed in the south for example, we'd have run into a matchup with either #1 Virginia, or #16 UMBC.

If you swapped #7 URI and #8 Creighton that year our matchups would've been as follows:

vs K State - great matchup for URI. K State had a stud in the middle but very young team and nothing outside of that.
vs UMBC - self-explanatory.
sweet 16 vs Kentucky - would've loved to go up against a team of freshman that wasn't huge
elite 8 vs loyola chicago...

But that's the NCAA...it's all about the matchups, and playing well. There's a road forward no matter what at-large seed you are:

SEED F4 CG NC
1---- 57 34 22
2---- 29 12 5
3---- 17 12 4
4---- 13 3 1
5---- 7 3 0
6---- 3 2 1
7---- 3 1 1
8---- 5 3 1
9---- 1 0 0
10----1 0 0
11----4 0 0

The ranking really doesn't matter at the end of the day. Just get in. You could have an AWFUL matchup as a 5 seed and be out first round. You could have a GREAT matchup as an 11 seed and be a final four team. Just hope we do enough to get in and our leaders will take care of the rest.

BEAT DAYTON.

Wow Blue URI did get screwed on that seeding would have loved that path that Creighton ended up getting

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:00 am**

From The Athletic's (Eamonn Brennan's) Bubble Watch. Spot on take in my opinion.

Rhode Island (18-5, 10-1; NET: 36, SOS: 39): Believe it or not, when Rhode Island takes the floor against Dayton on Tuesday night, it will do so having won just as many A-10 games as the national title contending Flyers. Not too shabby, that, especially considering that tally includes a sweep of VCU. David Cox has engineered a marvelous turnaround, though Rhode Island — which also lost to Brown in early January — isn’t home free just yet. But these Rams are well on their way.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:47 am**

Joey "Bruschetta Brackets" Lunardi has his espn updates. URI-9 seed.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:09 pm**

Rhodymob05 wrote: ↑4 years ago Joey "Bruschetta Brackets" Lunardi has his espn updates. URI-9 seed.

People catch who the 1 seed was in that same region

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:20 pm**

No who does he have us playing in the 8 v 9 at what location also who is the 1 seed in that bracket ???

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:25 pm**

Kansas in Omaha. That would be an awful 2nd round matchup. Azubuike is a load inside. Idk if we would have to personnel to take them. I'm hoping we get out of the 8 and 9 seeds whether it be win tonight to get to a 7 seed or drop to a 10 seed.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:35 pm**

sevegny7 wrote: ↑4 years ago Kansas in Omaha. That would be an awful 2nd round matchup. Azubuike is a load inside. Idk if we would have to personnel to take them. I'm hoping we get out of the 8 and 9 seeds whether it be win tonight to get to a 7 seed or drop to a 10 seed.

We didnt have the "personnel" to beat them in 98 either.....

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:39 pm**

Checking out the projected brackets and seeding is fun but there is still a long way off until Selection Sunday. They really are pretty meaningless right now. Rhody needs to concentrate on each game at hand without looking too far ahead. Need to basically win all the games that they are expected to. A single bad slip up can put them on the wrong side of the bubble. Nothing is guaranteed at this point and a there is still a long road ahead to reach the goal of getting to the tournament.

I still have bad memories of the 2009-10 season when URI had a record of 19-3 (with OOC wins over PC, BC, and Ok St) at the end of the first week of Feb that year. Rhody then collapsed down the stretch losing five of seven to close out the regular season. Even two wins in the A-10 Tournament did not add enough for an NCAA bid. Had to settle for the NIT where URI eventually lost at MSG to UNC in OT.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:48 pm**

FDshoes wrote: ↑4 years ago
sevegny7 wrote: ↑4 years ago Kansas in Omaha. That would be an awful 2nd round matchup. Azubuike is a load inside. Idk if we would have to personnel to take them. I'm hoping we get out of the 8 and 9 seeds whether it be win tonight to get to a 7 seed or drop to a 10 seed.
We didnt have the "personnel" to beat them in 98 either.....

That's true. Anything can happen just hate the 8 or 9 seed slot. But yeah definitely plenty of business to take care of before we get there. But let's hope a win tonight makes all this a moot point haha

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:21 pm**

sevegny7 wrote: ↑4 years ago Kansas in Omaha. That would be an awful 2nd round matchup. Azubuike is a load inside. Idk if we would have to personnel to take them. I'm hoping we get out of the 8 and 9 seeds whether it be win tonight to get to a 7 seed or drop to a 10 seed.

And an awful first round against Wisconsin.

In Omaha at that.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:33 pm**

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago
sevegny7 wrote: ↑4 years ago Kansas in Omaha. That would be an awful 2nd round matchup. Azubuike is a load inside. Idk if we would have to personnel to take them. I'm hoping we get out of the 8 and 9 seeds whether it be win tonight to get to a 7 seed or drop to a 10 seed.
And an awful first round against Wisconsin.

In Omaha at that.

I'm not overly high on wiscy this year tbh. I think they are beatable. And can see them fitting into the Oklahoma and Creighton mold from previous tourney appearances. And kansas would be that Duke type of team that we faced a couple years ago.

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:40 pm**

sevegny7 wrote: ↑4 years ago
PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago
sevegny7 wrote: ↑4 years ago Kansas in Omaha. That would be an awful 2nd round matchup. Azubuike is a load inside. Idk if we would have to personnel to take them. I'm hoping we get out of the 8 and 9 seeds whether it be win tonight to get to a 7 seed or drop to a 10 seed.
And an awful first round against Wisconsin.

In Omaha at that.
I'm not overly high on wiscy this year tbh. I think they are beatable. And can see them fitting into the Oklahoma and Creighton mold from previous tourney appearances. And kansas would be that Duke type of team that we faced a couple years ago.

Azubukie is like a giant Cyril

Posted: **Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:00 pm**

Let’s worry about specific matchups like a month from now, lord willing.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:15 am**

For those who still enjoy rooting for geographic preference, the best seeds for that remain 6, 7, 10, and 11.

As was stated last week and is still true, with BM #1 seeds of Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, and San Diego St, if those were to hold true that would leave teams with a 25% chance of St. Louis, a 25% chance of Omaha, a 25% chance of Spokane, and a 25% chance of Sacramento. 50% chance of midwest games, 50% chance of west coast games.

The BM #2 seeds of Duke, Louisville, Dayton, and Maryland would result in a 50% chance of playing in Greensboro and a 50% chance of playing in Cleveland, although in URI's case they would not be in a pod with Dayton so URI would have a 25% chance of playing in Cleveland.

The BM #3 seeds of Seton Hall, West Virginia, Florida St., and Auburn would be a 50% chance of playing in Albany and a 50% chance of playing in Tampa.

That would leave the BM #4 seeds the pleasure of 25% St. Louis, 25% Omaha, 25% Spokane, and 25% Sacramento.

Things can always change but it doesn't hurt to root for a 6 seed, does it?

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:38 am**

I will take ANY seeding over an 8/9... ANY

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:33 am**

We did not drop at all on bracket matrix.

Still the second nine seed which is 13 places ahead of the last team in.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:53 am**

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago We did not drop at all on bracket matrix.

Still the second nine seed which is 13 places ahead of the last team in.

I think URI's status is pretty solid. This is what I would approximate their regular season movement to be:

Home St. Joe's - Win: Move 0-1 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.
At Davidson - Win: Move up 1-2 two spots. Lose: Drop 1-2 spots.
at Fordham - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.
Home St. Louis - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 1-2 spots.
Home Dayton - Win: Move up 3-4 spots. Lose: Drop 0-1 spots.
At Umass - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.

Best case: 6-0 Move up 7-13 spots. Range from best 6th seed to 2nd best 7 seed. Odds of going 6-0: 9.5%
Worse Case: 0-6 Fall 17-23 spots. Range from 5th out (2 seed NIT) to 11th out (3 seed NIT). Odds of going 0-6: .007%
Other scenarios: 5-1 (loss to Dayton). Move up 4-8 spots. Range from 2nd best 7th seed to 2nd best 8 seed.
Other scenarios: 5-1 (loss to SLU/Davidson). Move up 5-9 spots. Range from best 7th seed to best 8 seed.
Other scenarios: 4-2 (loss to Dayton and Davidson/SLU). Move up 0-4 spots. Range from 2nd best 8 seed to 2nd best 9 seed.

I could have butchered this but I think URI's in a pretty good spot away from the bubble unless they go 2-4 and lost 2 of St. Joe's, Fordham, and UMASS.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:09 pm**

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑4 years ago
PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago We did not drop at all on bracket matrix.

Still the second nine seed which is 13 places ahead of the last team in.
I think URI's status is pretty solid. This is what I would approximate their regular season movement to be:

Home St. Joe's - Win: Move 0-1 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.
At Davidson - Win: Move up 1-2 two spots. Lose: Drop 1-2 spots.
at Fordham - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.
Home St. Louis - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 1-2 spots.
Home Dayton - Win: Move up 3-4 spots. Lose: Drop 0-1 spots.
At Umass - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.

Best case: 6-0 Move up 7-13 spots. Range from best 6th seed to 2nd best 7 seed. Odds of going 6-0: 9.5%
Worse Case: 0-6 Fall 17-23 spots. Range from 5th out (2 seed NIT) to 11th out (3 seed NIT). Odds of going 0-6: .007%
Other scenarios: 5-1 (loss to Dayton). Move up 4-8 spots. Range from 2nd best 7th seed to 2nd best 8 seed.
Other scenarios: 5-1 (loss to SLU/Davidson). Move up 5-9 spots. Range from best 7th seed to best 8 seed.
Other scenarios: 4-2 (loss to Dayton and Davidson/SLU). Move up 0-4 spots. Range from 2nd best 8 seed to 2nd best 9 seed.

I could have butchered this but I think URI's in a pretty good spot away from the bubble unless they go 2-4 and lost 2 of St. Joe's, Fordham, and UMASS.

Not including what could be gained from the conference tournament and the fact that the bubble teams below us will have multiple losses over the next few weeks.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:38 pm**

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑4 years ago
PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago We did not drop at all on bracket matrix.

Still the second nine seed which is 13 places ahead of the last team in.
I think URI's status is pretty solid. This is what I would approximate their regular season movement to be:

Home St. Joe's - Win: Move 0-1 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.
At Davidson - Win: Move up 1-2 two spots. Lose: Drop 1-2 spots.
at Fordham - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.
Home St. Louis - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 1-2 spots.
Home Dayton - Win: Move up 3-4 spots. Lose: Drop 0-1 spots.
At Umass - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.

Best case: 6-0 Move up 7-13 spots. Range from best 6th seed to 2nd best 7 seed. Odds of going 6-0: 9.5%
Worse Case: 0-6 Fall 17-23 spots. Range from 5th out (2 seed NIT) to 11th out (3 seed NIT). Odds of going 0-6: .007%
Other scenarios: 5-1 (loss to Dayton). Move up 4-8 spots. Range from 2nd best 7th seed to 2nd best 8 seed.
Other scenarios: 5-1 (loss to SLU/Davidson). Move up 5-9 spots. Range from best 7th seed to best 8 seed.
Other scenarios: 4-2 (loss to Dayton and Davidson/SLU). Move up 0-4 spots. Range from 2nd best 8 seed to 2nd best 9 seed.

I could have butchered this but I think URI's in a pretty good spot away from the bubble unless they go 2-4 and lost 2 of St. Joe's, Fordham, and UMASS.

This is a fair assessment. I think a good realistic expectation is to go 4-2 with losses to 2 of Dayton/Davidson/SLU, and beating UMass, Fordham, and St. Joe's. Losing to one of the latter three without a win over Dayton to offset would be devastating. But ideally, we win 2 out of the Dayton/Davidson/SLU trio and take the other 3 games we should win (on paper) for a 5-1 record down the stretch. Get to at least the semis from there, and we are looking really good on Selection Sunday.

Edit: PS: RJ how did you calculate the percentages for 6-0 and 0-6 and what would they be for other possibilities?

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:24 pm**

steviep123 wrote: ↑4 years ago
rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑4 years ago
PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago We did not drop at all on bracket matrix.

Still the second nine seed which is 13 places ahead of the last team in.
I think URI's status is pretty solid. This is what I would approximate their regular season movement to be:

Home St. Joe's - Win: Move 0-1 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.
At Davidson - Win: Move up 1-2 two spots. Lose: Drop 1-2 spots.
at Fordham - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.
Home St. Louis - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 1-2 spots.
Home Dayton - Win: Move up 3-4 spots. Lose: Drop 0-1 spots.
At Umass - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.

Best case: 6-0 Move up 7-13 spots. Range from best 6th seed to 2nd best 7 seed. Odds of going 6-0: 9.5%
Worse Case: 0-6 Fall 17-23 spots. Range from 5th out (2 seed NIT) to 11th out (3 seed NIT). Odds of going 0-6: .007%
Other scenarios: 5-1 (loss to Dayton). Move up 4-8 spots. Range from 2nd best 7th seed to 2nd best 8 seed.
Other scenarios: 5-1 (loss to SLU/Davidson). Move up 5-9 spots. Range from best 7th seed to best 8 seed.
Other scenarios: 4-2 (loss to Dayton and Davidson/SLU). Move up 0-4 spots. Range from 2nd best 8 seed to 2nd best 9 seed.

I could have butchered this but I think URI's in a pretty good spot away from the bubble unless they go 2-4 and lost 2 of St. Joe's, Fordham, and UMASS.
This is a fair assessment. I think a good realistic expectation is to go 4-2 with losses to 2 of Dayton/Davidson/SLU, and beating UMass, Fordham, and St. Joe's. Losing to one of the latter three without a win over Dayton to offset would be devastating. But ideally, we win 2 out of the Dayton/Davidson/SLU trio and take the other 3 games we should win (on paper) for a 5-1 record down the stretch. Get to at least the semis from there, and we are looking really good on Selection Sunday.

Edit: PS: RJ how did you calculate the percentages for 6-0 and 0-6 and what would they be for other possibilities?

I used the KenPom percentages for win probability to come up with those numbers. Do you have a specific scenario you would like for me to run? If I did my math right, there is a 32.5% chance of URI going 5-1.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:42 pm**

PeterRamTime wrote: ↑4 years ago
Not including what could be gained from the conference tournament and the fact that the bubble teams below us will have multiple losses over the next few weeks.

URI's bubble challenge is that they can't afford an extended bad run like some of their power conference peers could. A team like Xavier could probably go 3-4 and still be feeling pretty good about their tournament chances. URI can afford to lose a few games, but they need to avoid the landmines at all costs.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:43 pm**

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:07 pm**

rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑4 years ago
I could have butchered this but I think URI's in a pretty good spot away from the bubble unless they go 2-4 and lost 2 of St. Joe's, Fordham, and UMASS.

Your mouth to (Shamm)god's ears, but I could see falling out with a 3-3 finish and losing in the A10 quarters. I flashback to Baron's several 20-win teams that fell short of the tourney every time. I'll believe a 21-10 URI team this millennium will make the tourney when I see it. That said, the scheduling was as good as can be expected to support a URI team with a very good but not great record to make it.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:19 pm**

rhodyruckus wrote: ↑4 years ago
rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑4 years ago
I could have butchered this but I think URI's in a pretty good spot away from the bubble unless they go 2-4 and lost 2 of St. Joe's, Fordham, and UMASS.
Your mouth to (Shamm)god's ears, but I could see falling out with a 3-3 finish and losing in the A10 quarters. I flashback to Baron's several 20-win teams that fell short of the tourney every time. I'll believe a 21-10 URI team this millennium will make the tourney when I see it. That said, the scheduling was as good as can be expected to support a URI team with a very good but not great record to make it.

They are out with a 3-3 finish. Cmon seriously. You think if they lose to Dayton, Davidson and either St.Louis or Umass they are in good shape? They will be out real quick. Watch what happens to VCU after their loss tonight. They are out. A combination of losing quality VCU wins and not having enough else on their resume despite a weak bubble. I think 4-2 is going to be really testing the waters. This isn’t one of the Power 5 conferences

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:41 pm**

RamStock wrote: ↑4 years ago
rhodyruckus wrote: ↑4 years ago
rjsuperfly66 wrote: ↑4 years ago
I could have butchered this but I think URI's in a pretty good spot away from the bubble unless they go 2-4 and lost 2 of St. Joe's, Fordham, and UMASS.
Your mouth to (Shamm)god's ears, but I could see falling out with a 3-3 finish and losing in the A10 quarters. I flashback to Baron's several 20-win teams that fell short of the tourney every time. I'll believe a 21-10 URI team this millennium will make the tourney when I see it. That said, the scheduling was as good as can be expected to support a URI team with a very good but not great record to make it.
They are out with a 3-3 finish. Cmon seriously. You think if they lose to Dayton, Davidson and either St.Louis or Umass they are in good shape? They will be out real quick. Watch what happens to VCU after their loss tonight. They are out. A combination of losing quality VCU wins and not having enough else on their resume despite a weak bubble. I think 4-2 is going to be really testing the waters. This isn’t one of the Power 5 conferences

Finish 2nd in A10 Regular season (A10 is definitely getting two teams) and at least make it to the semi finals in Brooklyn.
Richmond has the tiebreaker on Rhody. We need VCU to beat Richmond this weekend.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:43 pm**

VCU will take a hit for this but they aren’t finished yet. If they finish strong they will likely be in the field.

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:44 pm**

I still think 15-3 we clinch bid even with loss in Quarters

14-4 will require a bit of work in Brooklyn

13-5 looks like we are mostly out except if we make finals and lose to Dayton then it could be a toss up

Posted: **Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:48 pm**

reef wrote: ↑4 years ago I still think 15-3 we clinch bid even with loss in Quarters

14-4 will require a bit of work in Brooklyn

13-5 looks like we are mostly out except if we make finals and lose to Dayton then it could be a toss up

I agree with this. This is pretty much the scenario.

KeaneyBlue - The URI Basketball Forum

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