Week #1 - Games of Interest

[Obadiah]

Saturday action has six games on tap in the A-10:

Jackson State at St. Bonaventure, 2 PM. On ESPN+.

La Salle was only A-10 school to open season on the road. They hold their home opener today versus Lafayette, 3 PM. On ESPN+.

Duquesne becomes the last A-10 school to open their season as the Dukes host William & Mary, 5 PM. On ESPN+.

Coppin State at Dayton, 7 PM. On ESPN+

Troy at Saint Louis, 8 PM. On ESPN+.

Fordham at Houston Baptist, 8 PM.


In URI OOC opponents action:

Charleston at Western Carolina, 12 Noon. On ESPN3.

Fairfield at Bucknell, 7 PM.

Holy Cross at #19 Michigan, 7:30 PM. Campus game in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off.

[Ramulous]

I'm revising my estimation of 5 bids for the A10

It appears I am dead wrong

Changing it to 2...maybe 3 if a bid stealer wins the A10 tourney.....

Very disappointed

And these freaking teams that are losing OOC games now will turn around their seasons after it is too late and hurt the top team's chances by beating them later in conference play....

[Rhody83]

Three of Rhody’s top OOC opponents lost last night in WV, PC and Harvard. All were upsets. We should have played one of them last night

Edit: Harvard was missing two of their top players. Northeastern also missing two starters. The kid who scored 35 for NE is a transfer from GW. I think they could’ve used him this year.

[ramster]

There isn't one dominant team this season in this conference. We have as good a chance as any to get a bye come conference tourney time.

A big key will be getting the freshmen experience in the OOC road games.

Rambone,
I think St Louis could fill the role as the dominant team in the A10 this season.
Every year we get into the woe is us mode for the A10 and posters say we will only get 1 or at most 2 teams in. But every year we get at least 3 - have to go way back to find 2.
This year I see St Louis and URI as in for sure.
The 3rd or possibly more bids depending upon A10 Tournament Upsets could come from - in my personal order:
Davidson
VCU
Dayton
St Joseph's
George Mason

But of course that's why they play the games
I would bet the house that a team Coached by Keith Dambrot will finish higher than 11th. He has a slew of transfers and freshmen new for this year. Watch for some upsets from his team. St Bonaventure always seems to do well later in the season and in A10 Conference Play. UMASS and Richmond will not be automatic wins for anybody

2018-19 Atlantic 10 Men's Basketball Preseason Poll
1. Saint Louis (15) 348
2. Saint Joseph's (4) 324
3. Davidson (6) 314
4. George Mason (1) 287
5. Rhode Island 221
6. Dayton 206
7. VCU 195
8. Massachusetts 175
9. St. Bonaventure 167
10. Richmond 156
11. Duquesne 146
12. La Salle 85
13. George Washington 73
14. Fordham 33

[rjsuperfly66]

Every year we get into the woe is us mode for the A10 and posters say we will only get 1 or at most 2 teams in. But every year we get at least 3 - have to go way back to find 2.

Sure, but three has been far from a lock.
In 2017, URI had to win 7 in a row to get to the A10 Championship game.
They would have been in, but won the A10T for good measure to lock it in.
Had they lost in the semis, they would have been a 1-seed in the NIT.
In 2018, Davidson would not have been in if not for the auto-bid, and St. Bonaventure had to win 12 in a row before losing in the A10T semis to play in the 1st Four.
If St. Bonaventure goes 11-2 instead of 12-1 during that stretch, they are a 1-seed in the NIT.
So in both years, the conference got three teams, but it took runs into the last weekend of the season to get there.

The season is only 4 days old but the conference already has 6 bad losses.
Of the top 10 conferences (via KenPom), only the AAC and the MVC have multiple bad losses, and they each have 2.
The more bad losses and the more bad teams in conference play, the more odds for upsets.
It puts more pressure on the top teams to have great OOC resumes to make up for the bad conference schedule.
It can be done, but the number of bad teams in the conference can drastically decrease the margin for error.
Makes it imperative for those top teams to take care of business in the OOC so they have some wiggle room during conference play.

[RF1]

I see that the Providence Journal sent Kevin McNamara to Annapolis to cover the PC-WSU game. I would assume since the paper always makes it clear it has no bias and applies the same rules for coverage, Bill Koch will be going to Charleston this week for the URI game.

[ramster]

Every year we get into the woe is us mode for the A10 and posters say we will only get 1 or at most 2 teams in. But every year we get at least 3 - have to go way back to find 2.

Sure, but three has been far from a lock.
In 2017, URI had to win 7 in a row to get to the A10 Championship game.
They would have been in, but won the A10T for good measure to lock it in.
Had they lost in the semis, they would have been a 1-seed in the NIT.
In 2018, Davidson would not have been in if not for the auto-bid, and St. Bonaventure had to win 12 in a row before losing in the A10T semis to play in the 1st Four.
If St. Bonaventure goes 11-2 instead of 12-1 during that stretch, they are a 1-seed in the NIT.
So in both years, the conference got three teams, but it took runs into the last weekend of the season to get there.

The season is only 4 days old but the conference already has 6 bad losses.
Of the top 10 conferences (via KenPom), only the AAC and the MVC have multiple bad losses, and they each have 2.
The more bad losses and the more bad teams in conference play, the more odds for upsets.
It puts more pressure on the top teams to have great OOC resumes to make up for the bad conference schedule.
It can be done, but the number of bad teams in the conference can drastically decrease the margin for error.
Makes it imperative for those top teams to take care of business in the OOC so they have some wiggle room during conference play.

Of course RJ, there have been things that have happened that made 3 teams possible, just like the year we got 5 teams in and I think even 6 once, but we never go below 3 in a long time.
But every year the early scuttlebut is the A10 is doomed - right? True?
And every year the 1 team and 2 team predictions do not materialize. Yes there are reasons why, but bottom line it’s 3 teams
St Louis is in URI is in as they are loaded with Talent and now some more transfer power - my humble and unprejudiced opinion on URI course
I don’t see the A10 as weaker than last year, just that St Louis will take the Top Spot unless Rhody wrestles it away from them

[bigappleram]

Love ya ramster but this year is different. Unlike last 2 years there are no clear cut NCAA teams. Every team has warts and question marks. IMO St. Joe’s is the least flawed team, with a good coach and a tough home court. They are the team to beat in A10. St. Louis has Ford, and a really poor shooting team. Rhody is young and saying we are a definite ncaa team even for a homer like me is just not possible. Davidson should contend as well. But like RJ said, with how bad the bottom of the conference is and knowing some of these crap teams will get to conference play and spring some upsets it is imperative the upper ties A10 teams pick up some quality wins in OOC. So far the league has 1 quality win, St Joe’s over ODU. And 5-6 really bad losses. Not looking good.

[Obadiah]

I don't disagree with your overall comments here, superfly, but NCAA bids are awarded to quality teams not conferences so how many bad losses the conference has so far versus the top conferences is irrelevant. What counts is not the number of bad team, but the number of teams that achieve a favorable NET rating teams and it is way too early to tell that. For example, citing GW's two bad losses as evidence is meaningless unless we thought GW was expected to be a top team. They were not. GMU is another question, though.

[rjsuperfly66]

Of course RJ, there have been things that have happened that made 3 teams possible, just like the year we got 5 teams in and I think even 6 once, but we never go below 3 in a long time.
But every year the early scuttlebut is the A10 is doomed - right? True?

I think it's too early to know anything.
The top teams in the conference haven't played anyone yet.
Their success in those games is going to go a long way to determining how many bids the conference can ultimately get, more than the bad losses.
The problem comes when you have bubble teams, they need to get those good wins amongst each other, while hopefully not losing ground via bad losses to the "landmines."
That's why I was down on the MWC/A10 in it's current setup.
Your top 1-3 teams will benefit, but the bubble teams are the ones that really need the help.

But the year the A10 got 6 in, they had an awesome OOC.
Look at someone like UMASS that year, started 16-1, 3-0 in conference play.
Finished conference play (plus tourney) 8-7, still got a 6 seed.
Far from luck - they beat 6 top 60 teams, and their only early season loss was to a top 40 team.
That season the A10 was full of very good teams, so even as they scuffled during conference play, 6 of there 7 losses were to Top 100 teams and 4 of those were top 60 teams.

Strong OOC showings take out a lot of the "luck" factor.

but NCAA bids are awarded to quality teams not conferences so how many bad losses the conference has so far versus the top conferences is irrelevant. What counts is not the number of bad team, but the number of teams that achieve a favorable NET rating teams and it is way too early to tell that. For example, citing GW's two bad losses as evidence is meaningless unless we thought GW was expected to be a top team.

True, and I largely agree with that (see above).
But regarding GW, they are a better win/loss with a NET of 150 versus a NET of 250.
Fordham is a better win/loss with a NET of 175 versus a NET of 275.
While wins against these teams are largely irrelevant, the damage they can do in a loss does matter, so having the bottom teams have better NET's does matter some.
If you are a team on the bubble in early March and lose to one of those teams, their performance in games in early November can have a direct impact on your bubble standing.
It's just added pressure.
Look at URI -- of their first 8 conference games, the last 7 of them are against "landmines." Of their last 8 conference games, 6 of them against against "landmines."
Teams will have bad nights, but a bad night against a landmine at the wrong time can effectively kill a season if you are squarely on the bubble.
And let's be real, bad nights are more likely to happen when you have more younger players in your rotation.

[ramster]

Right, GW was picked preseason to finish 13th in a 14 team league.
Davidson, St Louis, URI, VCU are all contenders. I suspect they will all have some key OOC victories and will have solid records in A10 play.
George Mason is surprising some who,picked them high preseason but honestly I never saw the potential in GMU to nab a bid.
But then GMU came out of nowhere to get to the Championship game of the A10 Soccer Tournament vs our beloved Rhody Rams

[ramster]

Of course RJ, there have been things that have happened that made 3 teams possible, just like the year we got 5 teams in and I think even 6 once, but we never go below 3 in a long time.
But every year the early scuttlebut is the A10 is doomed - right? True?

I think it's too early to know anything.
The top teams in the conference haven't played anyone yet.
Their success in those games is going to go a long way to determining how many bids the conference can ultimately get, more than the bad losses.
The problem comes when you have bubble teams, they need to get those good wins amongst each other, while hopefully not losing ground via bad losses to the "landmines."
That's why I was down on the MWC/A10 in it's current setup.
Your top 1-3 teams will benefit, but the bubble teams are the ones that really need the help.

But the year the A10 got 6 in, they had an awesome OOC.
Look at someone like UMASS that year, started 16-1, 3-0 in conference play.
Finished conference play (plus tourney) 8-7, still got a 6 seed.
Far from luck - they beat 6 top 60 teams, and their only early season loss was to a top 40 team.
That season the A10 was full of very good teams, so even as they scuffled during conference play, 6 of there 7 losses were to Top 100 teams and 4 of those were top 60 teams.

Strong OOC showings take out a lot of the "luck" factor.

but NCAA bids are awarded to quality teams not conferences so how many bad losses the conference has so far versus the top conferences is irrelevant. What counts is not the number of bad team, but the number of teams that achieve a favorable NET rating teams and it is way too early to tell that. For example, citing GW's two bad losses as evidence is meaningless unless we thought GW was expected to be a top team.

True, and I largely agree with that (see above).
But regarding GW, they are a better win/loss with a NET of 150 versus a NET of 250.
Fordham is a better win/loss with a NET of 175 versus a NET of 275.
While wins against these teams are largely irrelevant, the damage they can do in a loss does matter, so having the bottom teams have better NET's does matter some.
If you are a team on the bubble in early March and lose to one of those teams, their performance in games in early November can have a direct impact on your bubble standing.
It's just added pressure.
Look at URI -- of their first 8 conference games, the last 7 of them are against "landmines." Of their last 8 conference games, 6 of them against against "landmines."
Teams will have bad nights, but a bad night against a landmine at the wrong time can effectively kill a season if you are squarely on the bubble.
And let's be real, bad nights are more likely to happen when you have more younger players in your rotation.

You are right with your first statement above. it’s too early to know anything. Good, bad or in between. And that includes too early to say the A10 will get 3 or 4 teams in the Dance and too early to say they will only get 1 or 2 in the dance.

Just like it was too early to create the Jim Baron 2.0 thread last February

[Ramulous]

In other news....I am excellent in estimating crowd size.....

[Obadiah]

Then why didn't you join the contest???

[Obadiah]

Again, I agree with what you say, superfly, but when was the A-10 ever the powerhouse that made the OOC less relevant. Yes, there are differences in the overall quality of the league from year to year, but the fact is that A-10 has never been the source of lots of quality wins and this year will be no different. What counts going forward is that several quality teams emerge. We thought GMU was potentially one of them and that's why their two recent losses sting and why Richmond's bad loss to Longwood does not.

[Rhody83]

Charleston playing in ESPN3 right now. I am sure Rhody is watching it. Close game.

[rjsuperfly66]

Again, I agree with what you say, superfly, but when was the A-10 ever the powerhouse that made the OOC less relevant.

2014 - 6 bids
Those teams combined for OOC wins against teams with the following KenPom's:
@4, neutral 17, neutral 24, neutral 33, neutral 43, 48, neutral 49, neutral 51, neutral 56, 59, neutral 60, @74, @75, 76, neutral 77, 78, @83, @97.
With bad losses to: 147, 150, 151
Compare that the top 6 from last year:
neutral 26, neutral 33, neutral 39, @41, 62, 63, 64, @67, neutral 76, 96, 97 x2
Except that the top 6 from last year also included losses to:
100, 113, 141, 186, 188 ,200, 205, 208, 319

In 2014, UMASS legit went 8-7 in their last 15 and still got a 6 seed.

[Obadiah]

Western Carolina unable to get off a good three point shot in last 10 seconds as Charleston holds on for a 77-74 road win.

[Obadiah]

Granted your point on 2014, but in that year the A-10 had two teams in the top 25. It comes down what is the more typical A-10 season. What is the norm.

[Obadiah]

First A-10 results of day are in as St. Bonaventure pounds Jackson State, 67-36. Jackson State is just a so-so team in the SWAC which ranks at the bottom of the nation's 32 conferences.

[DC_Rams]

LaSalle in a life or death game right now against Lafayette.

[Obadiah]

La Salle drops its home opener to Lafayette, 77-76. Lafayette and American, winner over GW, are both expected to finish at the bottom of the Patriot League this year.

[Rhody83]

Charlotte just beat Oklahoma State 66-64 with a three at the buzzer. Both teams were going back and forth hitting their FT with OSU holding the lead. Malik Martin scored 13 points on 5-11 shooting. Starting as a Fr.

[reef]

I will stick to 2 teams for the A10

[Obadiah]

Leading most of game, Duquesne opened its season with an impressive win over William & Mary, 84-70. Duquesne was led by three players who had double digit figures - two sophomores, 6-6 guard, Eric Williams, who put in 15 points and transfer 6-8 center Mike Hughes who had 13 and freshman forward 6-10 Austin Rotroff who came off the bench to score 17 points. W & M is considered to be one of the top three teams in the Colonial along Northeastern and Charleston.

[ATPTourFan]

[rambone 78]

Way too early evaluation of the top half of the conference:

St.Louis, Davidson, St. Joes, and us top 4

VCU, UMass, Duquesne, maybe Dayton next.

Rest....sucking pond water

Maybe GMU will get their act together, but they are in a deep hole already.

[SmartyBarrett]

SLU currently down 13 to Troy.

[rambone 78]

21 points at the half for St. Louis.....I guess shooting isn't their strong point.

What's so surprising about some of these flops by A10 teams, is that most of these losses have been at home.

[DC_Rams]

Houston Baptist leading Fordham....

[RhowdyRam02]

And Fordham loses. Such a frigging embarrassment to the conference

[PeterRamTime]

Saint Louis came back and won.

They dominated at the end. They definitely have talent. I can see where they could be real good down the road.

[section(105)]

And Fordham loses. Such a frigging embarrassment to the conference

.......the coach’s seat must be nearing scorching......wonder where they will go next for another coach......? No doubt there is another guy that thinks he can win there in the A-10.....

[PillPushr]

Also, almost assuredly, the Richmond job will be open this offseason. However, that is a program you can win at.

[Obadiah]

Only one A-10 game today, GW at #5 Virginia, 2 PM. On ACCN.

[bigappleram]

Gonna be a blood bath. Fordham and GW are sooooooooo bad. And neither has any gold at the end of the rainbow, it's not like they're young and talent rich. Fordham is expected, but GW had been a solid A10 program and it looks like their life after Lonergan is not going to get any better.

[ATPTourFan]

I'll go and say it. There needs to be some kind of program investment & performance guidelines to participate in the A10.

[ace]

[Rhody83]

Grant better hope they don’t get any injuries.

[KevanBoyles]

From the UVA website previewing the GW game.

https://www.streakingthelawn.com/virgin ... -colonials

“... this game could get ugly.”

[PeterRamTime]

It has gotten ugly.

42-17 UVA at the half.

Wheres Garino? Larsen?? McDonald??? WATANABE?!?!?!

GW is sinking in the Delaware.

[KevanBoyles]

42-17 at half with UVA having to guys sitting most of the half with two fouls. Guy has 17 for UVA.

[KevanBoyles]

GW playing better in second half. Still down by 21.

[KevanBoyles]

Final 76-57. GW shot much better in second half.

[Obadiah]

The two worst teams on in URI OOC schedule see action on Sunday - Brown has already lost another close game this afternoon losing at NJIT, 63-60 and Bryant travels across country to play Seattle. 10 PM start to that one.

With yesterday games, all 14 A-10 teams have now held their home openers with nine winning and five losing. It is difficult to make snap judgements based on one game and the variability in the the quality of the opposition, but some things are already clear; Fordham is Fordham, George Mason may have been over rated in the preseason, GW with inexperience and little height is destined for a bad season and Richmond is not far behind. URI started well, but Bryant was a decidedly inferior team. St. Joesph's looked good against ODU. But the surprise was how effective Duquesne with its eleven newcomers handled a not bad William & Mary team.The Dukes have height and the play of a 6-10 freshman who came off the bench to lead in scoring was noteworthy.

BTW, I watched the Duquesne game on ESPN+ and the $5/month charge is bargain considering how many A-10 games are available, not to mention many others!!

Here is a summary of the A-10 home openers:

School	        Opponent	    Score     Attendance

Davidson	Cleveland State	   W, 83-63	 2,663
Dayton	        North Florida	   W, 78-70	12,552
Duquesne	William & Mary	   W, 84-70	 2,534
Fordham	        D3 CCNY	           W, 106-58	 1,740
George Mason	Penn	           L, 71-72	 5,767
GW            	Stony Brook	   L, 74-77 OT 	 3,188
La Salle	Lafayette	   L, 76-77	 3,400
Massachusetts	UMass-Lowell	   W, 83-75	 2,976
Rhode Island	Bryant	           W, 97-63	 5,010
Richmond	Longwood           L, 58-63 	 6,717
St. Bonaventure	Bucknell	   L, 85-88 OT	 4,668
Saint Joseph’s	Old Dominion	   W, 79-64	 4,084
Saint Louis	SE Missouri St.	   W, 75-65	 6,028
VCU	        Gardner-Webb	   W, 69-57	 7,637 

[theblueram]

Interesting to note that we are coming off back to back NCAAT wins, a regular season A10 championship and A10 Championship yet we are 6th on attendance. And we still had thousands of seats available. sheesh.

[Obadiah]

In some other games of interest;

Leading wire to wire,TCU cruised to a win over Oral Roberts, 79-62.

Also, UConn easily defeated Missouri-Kansas City, 94-66 in another campus game of 2K Classic. UMKC is a member of the WAC and finished near the bottom of that conference last year and their prospects for the current season are not much better.

[4Diffs]

Interesting to note that we are coming off back to back NCAAT wins, a regular season A10 championship and A10 Championship yet we are 6th on attendance. And we still had thousands of seats available. sheesh.

Ridiculous take. Attendance of over 5000 for an election night game against Bryant is not bad at all.

Our attendance will always be behind Dayton, VCU, St Louis and probably Richmond as well, even though Mooney has done a terrible job there and should be fired after this year. Dayton and VCU have the largest fan bases in the league. St Louis is located in a pretty big city and has the nicest arena in the A10 and is expected to be the best team in the A10 this year. George Mason was an anomaly because of the hype and playing a good Penn team. Do not think that will last.

What caught my eye is the pathetic attendance at both UMass and Davidson. Less than 3000 for teams expected to be good this year. Sheesh.

[rambone 78]

Davidson plays in a bandbox and UMass plays in a dump, although a relatively big dump.


Doubt much will change in either place.


We play in Hooterville.....if the RC held 10,000, I doubt it would ever sell out except for PC.....no matter how good we are.


Those other top attendance programs are hard by large population centers.....we're 3 days away by mountain goat from any major city.

[Rhody83]

Davidson plays in a bandbox and UMass plays in a dump, although a relatively big dump.


Doubt much will change in either place.

I was thinking the same about Davidson. I just googled their arena. It seats 5,295. I didn’t think it was that big.
They bring in buses of Sr citizens. The claim is they bang their walkers on the metal bleachers to make a lot of noise.