THE EARLY LINE URI VS PC

[luke]

A huge opening line of PC - 15 . If you can jump on this one early , take URI and the points . Don't think URI gets the win but should cover this large number with a slight chance of a win ifHouse, Montgomery and Weston have big games and PC shoots poorly.

[Rhody15]

Where is this line from?

DraftKings? Fanduel? MGM? Fox? ESPN?

[NYGFan_Section208]

Where is this line from?

FROM LUKE

[Rhody15]

Where is this line from?

FROM LUKE

lol yea, I feel like if you post an early line there should at least be a source from a Sportsbook.

[ramster]

Sportsbook Draftkings

[Rhody15]

Sportsbook Draftkings


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Perfect thanks

[rhodysurf]

-15 is heftttyyyyyyyy

[steveystuds06]

Yup, I took that bet. I think we lose by 12-14.

[STC]

URI +15 all day. I thought the line would be closer to PC -11.5.

[luke]

Both Draaft Kings and Covers.com have the line as PC - 15 . Get on it early if you are taking URI because it probably won't be going up .

[4Diffs]

I am not a gambler but damn that line is high, especially for a rivalry game. PC, despite what Blueman says, should be a prohibitive favorite, they are a better and more experienced team and their home court advantage is unbelievable. I have no idea what it is but their home whistle makes Kentucky and Kansas fans jealous. I have never seen such bias refereeing on a consistent basis for the home team. I wonder if the mafia effect is real and the refs fear for their lives. OK maybe a little dramatic but I watch a lot of hoop and I sincerely believe they get the best whistle of any home court I have ever seen. This is why gambling is so difficult, I do not expect this game to be particularly close but I was thinking 10-14 point loss and the line is 15. Still would not touch it either way.

[RJRam]

Time to change perceptions. Time to man up.
Go Rhody!

[reef]

Sportsbook Draftkings


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Wow I never thought it would be that high and would expect it to come down from that number to maybe 13.5 or 14

Definitely see value in Rhody +15

[theblueram]

No way Rhody loses by 15. If they do, Archie has some soul searching and some personnel decisions to make.

[McRam]

Sportsbook Draftkings


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Wow I never thought it would be that high and would expect it to come down from that number to maybe 13.5 or 14

Definitely see value in Rhody +15

[McRam]

This is really not that surprising considering Yale was a -6 on our home court. Using the 3-4 points for home court, that game would have been Yale -9 to minus -10on neutral and -13 or so on their home court. With this as a backdrop , -15 for the bettors does not seem too unreasonable.

We need to win a few games against real competition to get the gamblers respect. Hope this is one of those games

[theblueram]

This is really not that surprising considering Yale was a -6 on our home court. Using the 3-4 points for home court, that game would have been Yale -9 to minus -10on neutral and -13 or so on their home court. With this as a backdrop , -15 for the bettors does not seem too unreasonable.

We need to win a few games against real competition to get the gamblers respect. Hope this is one of those games

What is our ATS spread so far this year?

[Rhody Sody]

Sometimes it doesn’t make sense. Tell me how Fordham has a better KenPom rating.

[STC]

URI is +890 on the moneyline per FD. They also have URI +14.5.

[luke]

Blueram I believe URI is 4-2 against the opening line spread . I say that because the opening line against Central connecticut State was 9 but moved up to 11 on game day with some sites going to 11.5 . URI won by 11 .

[SGreenwell]

Sometimes it doesn’t make sense. Tell me how Fordham has a better KenPom rating.

Early season KenPom incorporates the previous season until early to mid-January, IIRC, with the assumption usually being that decent teams tend to stay decent. (Games from this year replace games from last year, until there is no effect.) Fordham will likely tumble down the ratings by that point, since they have three not so great losses and almost no good wins so far. I'm not sure our rating will be that great though, since right now we have one good win (Yale), three wins against teams likely to finish 275+ by the end of the year, and beating J&W.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Sometimes it doesn’t make sense. Tell me how Fordham has a better KenPom rating.

Early season KenPom incorporates the previous season until early to mid-January, IIRC, with the assumption usually being that decent teams tend to stay decent. (Games from this year replace games from last year, until there is no effect.) Fordham will likely tumble down the ratings by that point, since they have three not so great losses and almost no good wins so far. I'm not sure our rating will be that great though, since right now we have one good win (Yale), three wins against teams likely to finish 275+ by the end of the year, and beating J&W.

Are KP ratings score-influenced? If Rhody had lost one or both of the casino games by 5 or 6, instead of 20, does that part make a difference?

[rhodysurf]

Sometimes it doesn’t make sense. Tell me how Fordham has a better KenPom rating.

Early season KenPom incorporates the previous season until early to mid-January, IIRC, with the assumption usually being that decent teams tend to stay decent. (Games from this year replace games from last year, until there is no effect.) Fordham will likely tumble down the ratings by that point, since they have three not so great losses and almost no good wins so far. I'm not sure our rating will be that great though, since right now we have one good win (Yale), three wins against teams likely to finish 275+ by the end of the year, and beating J&W.

Are KP ratings score-influenced? If Rhody had lost one or both of the casino games by 5 or 6, instead of 20, does that part make a difference?

Yes because if you score less and give up more points your efficiency was bad on both ends.

Remember, UMass beat similar caliber teams as we have but they finished them off winning by 20-30+ while we were up 20 or 30 and finished only winning by like 10 that matters for kenpom. UMass hasn’t beat anyone yet but they rocketed up kenpom from those results

[SGreenwell]

Early season KenPom incorporates the previous season until early to mid-January, IIRC, with the assumption usually being that decent teams tend to stay decent. (Games from this year replace games from last year, until there is no effect.) Fordham will likely tumble down the ratings by that point, since they have three not so great losses and almost no good wins so far. I'm not sure our rating will be that great though, since right now we have one good win (Yale), three wins against teams likely to finish 275+ by the end of the year, and beating J&W.

Are KP ratings score-influenced? If Rhody had lost one or both of the casino games by 5 or 6, instead of 20, does that part make a difference?

Yes because if you score less and give up more points your efficiency was bad on both ends.

Remember, UMass beat similar caliber teams as we have but they finished them off winning by 20-30+ while we were up 20 or 30 and finished only winning by like 10 that matters for kenpom. UMass hasn’t beat anyone yet but they rocketed up kenpom from those results

Truth be told, the season is roughly 5 to 8 games old for everyone right now. There's no rating / ranking system that can give you a good handle on how good they actually are with that small of a sample size. I think you can start to trust them more after the OOC schedule is completed, which for us is still six games away. (This was also more true in the past, when teams played more OOC games.)

[reef]

I will guess Pc 75-67 so we will cover that big number

[TruePoint]

Early season KenPom incorporates the previous season until early to mid-January, IIRC, with the assumption usually being that decent teams tend to stay decent. (Games from this year replace games from last year, until there is no effect.) Fordham will likely tumble down the ratings by that point, since they have three not so great losses and almost no good wins so far. I'm not sure our rating will be that great though, since right now we have one good win (Yale), three wins against teams likely to finish 275+ by the end of the year, and beating J&W.

Are KP ratings score-influenced? If Rhody had lost one or both of the casino games by 5 or 6, instead of 20, does that part make a difference?

Yes because if you score less and give up more points your efficiency was bad on both ends.

Remember, UMass beat similar caliber teams as we have but they finished them off winning by 20-30+ while we were up 20 or 30 and finished only winning by like 10 that matters for kenpom. UMass hasn’t beat anyone yet but they rocketed up kenpom from those results

I believe (although truthfully I'm too lazy to look it up right now) that the efficiency numbers adjust for and discount activity in blowouts - I.e., once you’re up 20 points or so, the computers disregard what happens next, so it doesn’t totally matter if you end up winning by 15 or 30.

[rhodysurf]

Are KP ratings score-influenced? If Rhody had lost one or both of the casino games by 5 or 6, instead of 20, does that part make a difference?

Yes because if you score less and give up more points your efficiency was bad on both ends.

Remember, UMass beat similar caliber teams as we have but they finished them off winning by 20-30+ while we were up 20 or 30 and finished only winning by like 10 that matters for kenpom. UMass hasn’t beat anyone yet but they rocketed up kenpom from those results

I believe (although truthfully I'm too lazy to look it up right now) that the efficiency numbers adjust for and discount activity in blowouts - I.e., once you’re up 20 points or so, the computers disregard what happens next, so it doesn’t totally matter if you end up winning by 15 or 30.

Sort of, like the NET caps the score differential weighting, but kenpom won’t cap your efficiency I don’t think

[Rhodymob05]

Sometimes it doesn’t make sense. Tell me how Fordham has a better KenPom rating.

NET doesn’t make sense either, URI is currently 263, with a 1-6 Fairfield team ranked ahead at 262.

[rhodysurf]

Sometimes it doesn’t make sense. Tell me how Fordham has a better KenPom rating.

NET doesn’t make sense either, URI is currently 263, with a 1-6 Fairfield team ranked ahead at 262.

The net doesn’t come out until Monday

[spookydog]

Sometimes it doesn’t make sense. Tell me how Fordham has a better KenPom rating.

NET doesn’t make sense either, URI is currently 263, with a 1-6 Fairfield team ranked ahead at 262.

NET is last year’s ranking. They haven’t updated yet

[Rhodymob05]

Lol ok that is confusing. Little late no?

[Rhodymob05]

PC -13.5 now

[STC]

A couple player props I like courtesy of William Hill:

Kortright Over 2.5 Assists -111
Zek Over 12.5 Points -139

[luke]

Yes virtually all sites have the spread down to PC - 13.5 . This game could go anywhere from a blowout to a very tight game depending on the efforts
of both teams . URI needs to toughen up , fight and scramble for every rebound and loose ball to pull the upset and we haven't seen that level of effort yet this season , though they did rebound well against Yale . And the turnovers have to be under 10 . Shoot fts and threes well and finish at the rim .
Defense has to beintense as it was in the second half against Yale.

[reef]

Yes virtually all sites have the spread down to PC - 13.5 . This game could go anywhere from a blowout to a very tight game depending on the efforts
of both teams . URI needs to toughen up , fight and scramble for every rebound and loose ball to pull the upset and we haven't seen that level of effort yet this season , though they did rebound well against Yale . And the turnovers have to be under 10 . Shoot fts and threes well and finish at the rim .
Defense has to beintense as it was in the second half against Yale.

Yeah I thought 15 seemed high , uri should still cover 13.5

[Not Mike Powell]

I think PC gets out to an 18 point lead early, we get frisky and cut it to within 10, they pull away at the end and win by 16. PC 82- URI- 66.

[spookydog]

I got URI +15 so let’s goooo!!

[TruePoint]

Live line has moved a little. PC -11.5.

Not enough movement to consider a hedge. Almost more tempting to double down.

[PeterRamTime]

Live line has moved a little. PC -11.5.

Not enough movement to consider a hedge. Almost more tempting to double down.

Do it!

[reef]

Live line has moved a little. PC -11.5.

Not enough movement to consider a hedge. Almost more tempting to double down.

Agree we should cover that

[reef]

Landed on 15 PC gets the cover cuz we can’t hit FTS !