Men's Basketball 2023-24 Prediction Contest Chatter

[Rhody15]

Since no one has actually seen this team play, I find it hard to predict the contest at this point. The exhibition against Assumption next Wednesday is what you should wait for. I will post my thoughts after that game and I hope others who have a better basketball mind than myself will as well.

I'm kind of with you, in that I have no feel for how minute distribution and the depth chart is going to work with this team. Like, I kind of think House has a lockdown on his starting spot, and Kortright too, probably. Green, if eligible, I'd assume as a starter at the 5. Otherwise, I've got no clue. The deeper down the depth chart players from the 2022-23 squad are, the more optimistic I'd be about our chances this year.

Green at the 5? Do you think this is Draymond Green we have?

[PlayMikeMotenMore]

Is there a prediction as to when:
1) People will be pissing and moaning after which loss?
2) People will be calling for Archie to be fired?

[Billyboy78]

Is there a prediction as to when:
1) People will be pissing and moaning after which loss?
2) People will be calling for Archie to be fired?

J&W

[SGreenwell]

Oops, sorry - I meant to say Green at the 4, not the 5. Brain fart.

[ramster]

8-5?

Pure gold

[Rhody15]

8-5?

Pure gold

Put OOC prediction instead of conference by mistake.

Sue me.

[Rhody Sody]

8-5?

Pure gold

Put OOC prediction instead of conference by mistake.

Sue me.

I thought the contest was only open to bona fide Rhody fans …does Rhody 15 qualify?

[ramster]

8-5?

Pure gold

Put OOC prediction instead of conference by mistake.

Sue me.

I thought the contest was only open to bona fide Rhody fans …does Rhody 15 qualify?

I thought maybe he had a reading comprehension issue with the contest rules

[PeterRamTime]

Still holding off for Green...

[NYGFan_Section208]

Still holding off for Green...

May as well jump in...not happening.

[PeterRamTime]

Still holding off for Green...

May as well jump in...not happening.

Hell now

If I'm gonna be a betting man I'm not counting my ducks before the hatch in a row...

[NYGFan_Section208]

Still holding off for Green...

May as well jump in...not happening.

Hell now

If I'm gonna be a betting man I'm not counting my ducks before the hatch in a row...

You're not a "betting man," you're playing a no skin in the game "contest'.... But, I get it (he's still not playing though)

[reef]

If Green is announced as eligible before the cCSU game we can just edit our predictions

[Rhody15]

If Green is announced as eligible before the cCSU game we can just edit our predictions

Read the first post in the thread man, it says right there predictions are final Monday at 7 pm.

[Jersey77]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

[ramster]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

I shouldn't give out my secrets but here goes:

• No PC Game this year that sells out. The replacement game will be more like 4000 instead of 7,800

• Very weak OOC schedule coming to Ryan Center - End of Season NET listed

11/6 Central Connecticut Monday - 343
11/9 Fairfield Thursday - 264
11/14 Wagner Tuesday - 311
11/22 Johnson & Wales Wednesday - None
11/26 Yale Sunday - 64
12/6 Brown Wednesday - 183
12/21 New Hampshire Thursday - 268
12/30 Northeastern Saturday - 312

• We don't play Dayton or VCU at the Ryan Center. Poor End of Season NET Rankings of most A10 visiting teams

UMASS - 205
Fordham - 134
LaSalle - 223
George Mason - 139
Duquesne - 130
Loyola - 269
Richmond - 159
St Louis - 99
St Joseph's - 200

• Actual attendance fannies in seats was well below the announced attendance numbers. One could surmise that lack of interest could translate into fewer season ticket renewals

[Billyboy78]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

The PC game always makes the season attendance (interest) look better than it really is overall.

[Jersey77]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

I shouldn't give out my secrets but here goes:

• No PC Game this year that sells out. The replacement game will be more like 4000 instead of 7,800

• Very weak OOC schedule coming to Ryan Center - End of Season NET listed

11/6 Central Connecticut Monday - 343
11/9 Fairfield Thursday - 264
11/14 Wagner Tuesday - 311
11/22 Johnson & Wales Wednesday - None
11/26 Yale Sunday - 64
12/6 Brown Wednesday - 183
12/21 New Hampshire Thursday - 268
12/30 Northeastern Saturday - 312

• We don't play Dayton or VCU at the Ryan Center. Poor End of Season NET Rankings of most A10 visiting teams

UMASS - 205
Fordham - 134
LaSalle - 223
George Mason - 139
Duquesne - 130
Loyola - 269
Richmond - 159
St Louis - 99
St Joseph's - 200

• Actual attendance fannies in seats was well below the announced attendance numbers. One could surmise that lack of interest could translate into fewer season ticket renewals

Aside from PC, not sure the rest of the schedule will make that much of a difference.
Besides if there is any interest, once we start winning the fans should show up.

Ramster, you usually wait close to the end before you post and expecting you to predict the highest attendance.

[ramster]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

I shouldn't give out my secrets but here goes:

• No PC Game this year that sells out. The replacement game will be more like 4000 instead of 7,800

• Very weak OOC schedule coming to Ryan Center - End of Season NET listed

11/6 Central Connecticut Monday - 343
11/9 Fairfield Thursday - 264
11/14 Wagner Tuesday - 311
11/22 Johnson & Wales Wednesday - None
11/26 Yale Sunday - 64
12/6 Brown Wednesday - 183
12/21 New Hampshire Thursday - 268
12/30 Northeastern Saturday - 312

• We don't play Dayton or VCU at the Ryan Center. Poor End of Season NET Rankings of most A10 visiting teams

UMASS - 205
Fordham - 134
LaSalle - 223
George Mason - 139
Duquesne - 130
Loyola - 269
Richmond - 159
St Louis - 99
St Joseph's - 200

• Actual attendance fannies in seats was well below the announced attendance numbers. One could surmise that lack of interest could translate into fewer season ticket renewals

Aside from PC, not sure the rest of the schedule will make that much of a difference.
Besides if there is any interest, once we start winning the fans should show up.

Ramster, you usually wait close to the end before you post and expecting you to predict the highest attendance.

I think some on this board underestimate the number of no-shows. It's worst I've seen since the end of the Baron era. Cox did major damage to this program from an apathy standpoint - bigger hill for Miller to climb than some think to get enthusiasm back.

[NYGFan_Section208]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

I shouldn't give out my secrets but here goes:

• No PC Game this year that sells out. The replacement game will be more like 4000 instead of 7,800

• Very weak OOC schedule coming to Ryan Center - End of Season NET listed

11/6 Central Connecticut Monday - 343
11/9 Fairfield Thursday - 264
11/14 Wagner Tuesday - 311
11/22 Johnson & Wales Wednesday - None
11/26 Yale Sunday - 64
12/6 Brown Wednesday - 183
12/21 New Hampshire Thursday - 268
12/30 Northeastern Saturday - 312

• We don't play Dayton or VCU at the Ryan Center. Poor End of Season NET Rankings of most A10 visiting teams

UMASS - 205
Fordham - 134
LaSalle - 223
George Mason - 139
Duquesne - 130
Loyola - 269
Richmond - 159
St Louis - 99
St Joseph's - 200

• Actual attendance fannies in seats was well below the announced attendance numbers. One could surmise that lack of interest could translate into fewer season ticket renewals

The JWU game is at 2pm the day before Thanksgiving. Need to keep an eye on that one as least-attended regular season game in a while, don't you?

[ramster]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

I shouldn't give out my secrets but here goes:

• No PC Game this year that sells out. The replacement game will be more like 4000 instead of 7,800

• Very weak OOC schedule coming to Ryan Center - End of Season NET listed

11/6 Central Connecticut Monday - 343
11/9 Fairfield Thursday - 264
11/14 Wagner Tuesday - 311
11/22 Johnson & Wales Wednesday - None
11/26 Yale Sunday - 64
12/6 Brown Wednesday - 183
12/21 New Hampshire Thursday - 268
12/30 Northeastern Saturday - 312

• We don't play Dayton or VCU at the Ryan Center. Poor End of Season NET Rankings of most A10 visiting teams

UMASS - 205
Fordham - 134
LaSalle - 223
George Mason - 139
Duquesne - 130
Loyola - 269
Richmond - 159
St Louis - 99
St Joseph's - 200

• Actual attendance fannies in seats was well below the announced attendance numbers. One could surmise that lack of interest could translate into fewer season ticket renewals

The JWU game is at 2pm the day before Thanksgiving. Need to keep an eye on that one as least-attended regular season game in a while, don't you?

Will be easy to hand count the actual attendees.

[RhowdyRam02]

I shouldn't give out my secrets but here goes:

• No PC Game this year that sells out. The replacement game will be more like 4000 instead of 7,800

• Very weak OOC schedule coming to Ryan Center - End of Season NET listed

11/6 Central Connecticut Monday - 343
11/9 Fairfield Thursday - 264
11/14 Wagner Tuesday - 311
11/22 Johnson & Wales Wednesday - None
11/26 Yale Sunday - 64
12/6 Brown Wednesday - 183
12/21 New Hampshire Thursday - 268
12/30 Northeastern Saturday - 312

• We don't play Dayton or VCU at the Ryan Center. Poor End of Season NET Rankings of most A10 visiting teams

UMASS - 205
Fordham - 134
LaSalle - 223
George Mason - 139
Duquesne - 130
Loyola - 269
Richmond - 159
St Louis - 99
St Joseph's - 200

• Actual attendance fannies in seats was well below the announced attendance numbers. One could surmise that lack of interest could translate into fewer season ticket renewals

Aside from PC, not sure the rest of the schedule will make that much of a difference.
Besides if there is any interest, once we start winning the fans should show up.

Ramster, you usually wait close to the end before you post and expecting you to predict the highest attendance.

I think some on this board underestimate the number of no-shows. It's worst I've seen since the end of the Baron era. Cox did major damage to this program from an apathy standpoint - bigger hill for Miller to climb than some think to get enthusiasm back.

Yet another reason Cox should have been fired a year earlier than he was

[DeanDome88]

I predicted a winning season- barely. We are not going to be great but the schedule is very weak.

[Jdrums#3]

No official word on Green. I will go with he’s not playing this season and will adjust my expectations accordingly.

However, imho, we have enough talent, coaching ability and coaching will to overcome and have a winning season. Go Rhody!

ETA: I am expecting Archie and staff to be driven this season to leave last years results in the dust bin of history. I also believe Arch and staff have upgraded the talent on this team, the OC schedule is favorable and that - outside of 3 -4 teams in the A10 - no other team is head and shoulders better than us. Therefore, I think we will have a winning record overall and be very difficult to beat when A10 T time roles around - barring unforeseen injuries, of course.

[SGreenwell]

I notified seven people of duplicate guesses for team PPG, leading scorer points per game and attendance per game.

[Taylor Swift]

I just realized I did my entry in this thread- ooops!

[section(105)]

Monday AM, 40 something like entries. What has been the average over the years, just wondering.

[SGreenwell]

Monday AM, 40 something like entries. What has been the average over the years, just wondering.

Last year's had 71, and we were at 61 before I went to bed last night, so I imagine we'll be right around that number this year. Pretty decent, considering that the team has been disappointing the past two years. I suspect the numbers will go up once we start to win again, and more people find the board as a result.

[Billyboy78]

There's 60 something now.

[RF1]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

I shouldn't give out my secrets but here goes:

• No PC Game this year that sells out. The replacement game will be more like 4000 instead of 7,800

• Very weak OOC schedule coming to Ryan Center - End of Season NET listed

11/6 Central Connecticut Monday - 343
11/9 Fairfield Thursday - 264
11/14 Wagner Tuesday - 311
11/22 Johnson & Wales Wednesday - None
11/26 Yale Sunday - 64
12/6 Brown Wednesday - 183
12/21 New Hampshire Thursday - 268
12/30 Northeastern Saturday - 312

• We don't play Dayton or VCU at the Ryan Center. Poor End of Season NET Rankings of most A10 visiting teams

UMASS - 205
Fordham - 134
LaSalle - 223
George Mason - 139
Duquesne - 130
Loyola - 269
Richmond - 159
St Louis - 99
St Joseph's - 200

• Actual attendance fannies in seats was well below the announced attendance numbers. One could surmise that lack of interest could translate into fewer season ticket renewals

I have been tracking attendance for the Ryan Cnter since it opened and I would very much agree with your assessment. I think attendance is going to take a big hit. Last year's numbers were aided by good season ticket advance numbers sold off the hiring of Archie and new hope for the program. Those dynamics do not exist for this year. Furthermore, season ticket sales often lag season performance. I think that last year's dreadful performance and record will be a big drag on advance season ticket sales and overall attendance in 2023-24. In addition, as you correctly point out, there are few opponent games that will drive ticket sales. The fact that this team will most likely not have great success on the court with a gaudy win record and post season bid will ultimately have the greatest impact (nine of the top ten RC season averages saw the team end up in either the NCAA or NIT). All of these factors combined will depress the numbers. I would think average attendance could well settle somewhere in the low to mid 4k range (4,200-4,700) based on past history.


RYAN CENTER URI HOME ATTENDANCE HISTORY BY AVERAGE
SEASON | GAMES | TOTAL | AVERAGE
2017-18 | 16 | 99,466 | 6,217
2019-20 | 15 | 92,156 | 6,144
2007-08 | 15 | 88,731 | 5,915
2018-19 | 14 | 81,153 | 5,797
2003-04 | 17 | 97,762 | 5,751
2002-03 | 17 | 96,194 | 5,658
2014-15 | 16 | 86,461 | 5,404
2008-09 | 14 | 74,196 | 5,300
2009-10 | 17 | 88,853 | 5,227
2016-17 | 16 | 82,761 | 5,173
2022-23 | 16 | 82,531 | 5,158
2021-22 | 15 | 72,207 | 4,814
2005-06 | 16 | 76,150 | 4,760
2015-16 | 17 | 80,198 | 4,718
2004-05 | 14 | 65,227 | 4,659
2010-11 | 16 | 72,598 | 4,537
2006-07 | 15 | 67,293 | 4,486
2013-14 | 16 | 71,058 | 4,441
2012-13 | 15 | 64,368 | 4,291
2011-12 | 15 | 57,428 | 3,829
TOTAL | 312 | 1,596,791 | 5,118

[TruePoint]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

I think for the most part attendance will lag by a season with respect to performance. Obviously there would be an exception to that rule if the team started like 20-0 - we would sell out the remaining games unless/until we lost. But for the most part, our attendance is driven by season ticket sales and that mainly happens in the offseason. An improved performance on the floor (setting aside the hypothetical situation mentioned above) will only drive enough interest in single-game ticket sales to partially mitigate a soft season ticket sales performance.

[Jersey77]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

I think for the most part attendance will lag by a season with respect to performance. Obviously there would be an exception to that rule if the team started like 20-0 - we would sell out the remaining games unless/until we lost. But for the most part, our attendance is driven by season ticket sales and that mainly happens in the offseason. An improved performance on the floor (setting aside the hypothetical situation mentioned above) will only drive enough interest in single-game ticket sales to partially mitigate a soft season ticket sales performance.

Yeah, you are probably right TP.

I just hope some of the passion and excitement from the posters on KB passes onto to the rest of the fans and students and they show up to the games.

[Billyboy78]

One thing that sticks out to me and I find very interesting is that everyone sees us much improved and many predict a winning record, yet the majority (by far) predict the attendance less than last season. That doesn't bode well about our thoughts on the general interest in the program.

I think for the most part attendance will lag by a season with respect to performance. Obviously there would be an exception to that rule if the team started like 20-0 - we would sell out the remaining games unless/until we lost. But for the most part, our attendance is driven by season ticket sales and that mainly happens in the offseason. An improved performance on the floor (setting aside the hypothetical situation mentioned above) will only drive enough interest in single-game ticket sales to partially mitigate a soft season ticket sales performance.

Yeah, you are probably right TP.

I just hope some of the passion and excitement from the posters on KB passes onto to the rest of the fans and students and they show up to the games.

And the key is the students. They drive the crowd.

[RhowdyRam02]

SGreenwell, do you truly believe the record you put in the prediction contest or was there some game theory involved? 11-20 (5-13) would be an absolute catastrophe

[SGreenwell]

SGreenwell, do you truly believe the record you put in the prediction contest or was there some game theory involved? 11-20 (5-13) would be an absolute catastrophe

Eh, for this year and last year, I basically just plugged some numbers into an equation. I'm assuming that some of the prediction models that are pessimistic on URI are reacting to that as well. We basically have three players with track records of average to good D-I basketball production (Montgomery, Kortright and House). Everyone else was either below average last year, or not playing Division I basketball. Even assuming good production right away from guys like Brown and Fuchs, and some nudges up in production from the holdovers, we're basically starting from 0 this year.

I would love to be wrong, obviously. And maybe our overall win total will be decent because we play a crap schedule. (Somehow, last year's graded out at 133rd overall, whereas this year's will probably be way worse.) But we essentially retained nobody good from last year's team, and brought in nine new players, of which only three have Division I track records. (I'm not counting Green, who I don't think will be eligible right away.) I don't have much faith in guys like Weston and Stewart taking big jumps in production, so if the team is good this year, it'll probably be because someone like Estevez or Foumena or Brown or Fuchs is a quality player right away. I'm not especially confident in my prediction, because there are so many unknown variables on the team, whereas last year, I was pretty sure we were going to suck.

ETA: I should also note that last year, I guessed 13 overall wins, even though a lower number was spit out. So this year, I'm just going with the cold, heartless number generated by my speadsheet, haha. For a third time, I hope it is wrong thanks to Miller finding some real gems on the recruiting trail here. Failing that, I think we'd be OK to good for next year if we retained Montgomery, Kortright and House, while adding in a couple more players and getting some improvement from holdovers.

[TruePoint]

Maybe I am just way too down on the A10, but to me with this OOC schedule and the shape that the league is in as a whole I don’t feel like we actually need to be great to finish at or around 20 wins. I know nobody asked me about my prediction but FWIW that is what was driving more than anything. But I do think our talent should be upgraded compared to last year (purely my impression, not supported by any models).

[SGreenwell]

Also, its in the thread from last year, but copy-pasting it here as well - The distinguished honor roll of past winners!

Contest Season Participants Winner

#1 2008-09 44 RhodyRams08
#2 2009-10 50 luke
#3 2010-11 67 URIGONZO
#4 2011-12 62 Rhody78PSC
#5 2012-13 85 CTRamfan (80 of 85)
#6 2013-14 78 ramster (76 of 78)
#7 2014-15 88 RAM67 (13 of 88)
#8 2015-16 95 ramfan85 (95 of 95)
#9 2016-17 71 Shinze88 (70 of 71)
#10 2017-18 87 hrstrat57 (9 of 87)
#11 2018-19 96 Rhody15 (88 of 96)
#12 2019-20 92 R.Kelly150 (26 of 92)
2020-21 No Contest
#13 2021-22 55 spookydog (55 of 55)
#14 2022-23 71 spookydog (71 of 71)

[RhowdyRam02]

Maybe I am just way too down on the A10, but to me with this OOC schedule and the shape that the league is in as a whole I don’t feel like we actually need to be great to finish at or around 20 wins. I know nobody asked me about my prediction but FWIW that is what was driving more than anything. But I do think our talent should be upgraded compared to last year (purely my impression, not supported by any models).

This was pretty much my exact thinking

[RAM67]

Looks like Steve is going for low man ala Spooky.

[jcru]

low man was a great strategy the last two years.

low man isn't going to win it this year.

[NYGFan_Section208]

Maybe I am just way too down on the A10, but to me with this OOC schedule and the shape that the league is in as a whole I don’t feel like we actually need to be great to finish at or around 20 wins. I know nobody asked me about my prediction but FWIW that is what was driving more than anything. But I do think our talent should be upgraded compared to last year (purely my impression, not supported by any models).

This was pretty much my exact thinking

The One Fake Game and One Real Game Model supports significant optimism.

[reef]

low man was a great strategy the last two years.

low man isn't going to win it this year.

Right those days are long gone now , Archie Miller is here and he’s not looking back

[Rhody15]

low man was a great strategy the last two years.

low man isn't going to win it this year.

Right those days are long gone now , Archie Miller is here and he’s not looking back

He was here last year too lol

[RAM67]

low man was a great strategy the last two years.

low man isn't going to win it this year.

Apparently, this year's new low man still believes it's a good strategy. Does he need a Keaney Blue "Go Fund Me"?

[SGreenwell]

Much like Obie used to do, here is a summary, and some highlights and "highlights," of the guesses for this year's contest...

Pure Averages and Figures. We had 71 entries this year, with an average prediction of 17.27 wins, 13.73 losses, 9.1 A-10 wins and 8.90 losses. The crowd expects PPG of 69.81, with the leading scorer - whoever that might be - pouring in 15.49 per game. Jaden House was the overwhelming favorite for that honor. Average attendance is guessed at 4,787.90.

I did split the guesses into pre- and post-exhibition for fun, to see if there was a major difference. The answer? Not so much! Pre-exhibition, the guesses averaged out to 17.05 wins and 13.95 losses. Post-exhibition, there was a slight budge upward to 17.27 and 13.73.

The Extremes. Rhodylaw is the high guesser in this year's contest, with 23. After that, three people tie with 21 overall wins - UCH21377, The Dude and Blue Man. Rhodylaw is also the high man when it comes to conference wins (13), with Blue Man and UCH21377 guessing 12.

On the other end of the spectrum, ramster pulls the last minute heel move! His guess of 10 overall wins is one less than mine, and three less than RI_Bred, ramfan85 and Not Mike Powell. Ramster, Not Mike Powell and myself each had a low guess of 5 conference wins.

Means, Medians and Modes. The average win total guess was 17.27 wins. Not surprisingly, there were 11 people who guessed 17 wins, and 13 that guessed 18 wins - the latter was the highest concentration of guesses for a win total. A dozen people guessed 19 wins, and eight had 20 wins. The median guess belongs to Spar (and others at 18 wins). Everyone who guessed 18 wins also guessed either 8, 9 or 10 conference wins. By far the most guessed path for URI this year is a somewhat good or gaudy OOC record (something like 8-5 to 10-3), followed by a near .500 performance in the conference slate.

POINTS! House is the overwhelming favorite to lead the team in PPG, earning the nod from 55(!) entries, roughly 77 percent of the entries. Montgomery "earned" second place with seven nods (9.8 percent). Fuchs and Kortright tallied four ballots each (5.63 percent), while ramster was the lone vote for Foumena (1.4 percent).

Billyboy was the lone person to project more than 20 PPG for House (20.36), which was 2 more than Rhodysurf. URIFIJI had the low guess, with 12.69 for Kortright. Rhodyrudder had the low guess for House, at 13.25.

When it comes to team PPG, NYGFan_Section208, URIFIJI and STC think we're returning to Baron Ball, with guesses of 64.62, 64.69 and 64.7 respectively. Conversely, luke had a guess of 76.2 PPG, a full point greater than KevanBoyles (74.8) and rhodyrudder (74.44).

Are You Not Entertained?!? Ram96 edged out Rhody Guy for the highest attendance guess, 5425 vs. 5391. Billyboy78 (5309) and rhodylaw (5275) were just behind them. The median guess was Jdrums#3, with 4858, flanked by Rhody Sody (4855) and URIFIJI (4869). The Gloomy Guses of attendance are ramster (3900), Spookydog (3939) and NarraRamFan (3948).

For a Google sheet with all of this year's entries laid out, click here.

[SGreenwell]

I posted this list of past winners yesterday, but a couple hours after posting, I realized - wait, I could link to the threads. That would be a helpful thing to do. So, here is the list of past winners, with links to their respective contest wins.

Contest Season Participants Winner

#1 2008-09 44 RhodyRams08 (previous board - no surviving threads)
#2 2009-10 50 luke (previous board - no surviving threads)
#3 2010-11 67 URIGONZO (previous board - no surviving threads)
#4 2011-12 62 Rhody78PSC (previous board - no surviving threads)
#5 2012-13 85 CTRamfan (80 of 85) (summary and winners) (guesses)
#6 2013-14 78 ramster (76 of 78) (summary and winners) (guesses)
#7 2014-15 88 RAM67 (13 of 88) (summary and winners) (guesses)
#8 2015-16 95 ramfan85 (95 of 95) (summary and winners) (guesses)
#9 2016-17 71 Shinze88 (70 of 71) (winners) (guesses)
#10 2017-18 87 hrstrat57 (9 of 87) (summary and winners) (guesses)
#11 2018-19 96 Rhody15 (88 of 96) (summary and winners) (guesses)
#12 2019-20 92 R.Kelly150 (26 of 92) (summary and winners) (guesses)
2020-21 No Contest
#13 2021-22 55 spookydog (55 of 55) (summary and winners) (guesses)
#14 2022-23 71 spookydog (71 of 71) (winner thread) (summary thread) (guesses thread)

[RF1]

With regards to the attendance outlook, last night's opener drew 4,118. This was the lowest first game Ryan Center attendance in the last ten openers. Only three of the last ten home openers have drawn less than 5k. One of these games was D2 Pace back in 2014-15 with 4,210.

[Jdrums#3]

Much like Obie used to do, here is a summary, and some highlights and "highlights," of the guesses for this year's contest...

Pure Averages and Figures. We had 71 entries this year, with an average prediction of 17.27 wins, 13.73 losses, 9.1 A-10 wins and 8.90 losses. The crowd expects PPG of 69.81, with the leading scorer - whoever that might be - pouring in 15.49 per game. Jaden House was the overwhelming favorite for that honor. Average attendance is guessed at 4,787.90.

I did split the guesses into pre- and post-exhibition for fun, to see if there was a major difference. The answer? Not so much! Pre-exhibition, the guesses averaged out to 17.05 wins and 13.95 losses. Post-exhibition, there was a slight budge upward to 17.27 and 13.73.

The Extremes. Rhodylaw is the high guesser in this year's contest, with 23. After that, three people tie with 21 overall wins - UCH21377, The Dude and Blue Man. Rhodylaw is also the high man when it comes to conference wins (13), with Blue Man and UCH21377 guessing 12.

On the other end of the spectrum, ramster pulls the last minute heel move! His guess of 10 overall wins is one less than mine, and three less than RI_Bred, ramfan85 and Not Mike Powell. Ramster, Not Mike Powell and myself each had a low guess of 5 conference wins.

Means, Medians and Modes. The average win total guess was 17.27 wins. Not surprisingly, there were 11 people who guessed 17 wins, and 13 that guessed 18 wins - the latter was the highest concentration of guesses for a win total. A dozen people guessed 19 wins, and eight had 20 wins. The median guess belongs to Spar (and others at 18 wins). Everyone who guessed 18 wins also guessed either 8, 9 or 10 conference wins. By far the most guessed path for URI this year is a somewhat good or gaudy OOC record (something like 8-5 to 10-3), followed by a near .500 performance in the conference slate.

POINTS! House is the overwhelming favorite to lead the team in PPG, earning the nod from 55(!) entries, roughly 77 percent of the entries. Montgomery "earned" second place with seven nods (9.8 percent). Fuchs and Kortright tallied four ballots each (5.63 percent), while ramster was the lone vote for Foumena (1.4 percent).

Billyboy was the lone person to project more than 20 PPG for House (20.36), which was 2 more than Rhodysurf. URIFIJI had the low guess, with 12.69 for Kortright. Rhodyrudder had the low guess for House, at 13.25.

When it comes to team PPG, NYGFan_Section208, URIFIJI and STC think we're returning to Baron Ball, with guesses of 64.62, 64.69 and 64.7 respectively. Conversely, luke had a guess of 76.2 PPG, a full point greater than KevanBoyles (74.8) and rhodyrudder (74.44).

Are You Not Entertained?!? Ram96 edged out Rhody Guy for the highest attendance guess, 5425 vs. 5391. Billyboy78 (5309) and rhodylaw (5275) were just behind them. The median guess was Jdrums#3, with 4858, flanked by Rhody Sody (4855) and URIFIJI (4869). The Gloomy Guses of attendance are ramster (3900), Spookydog (3939) and NarraRamFan (3948).

For a Google sheet with all of this year's entries laid out, click here.

Great stuff, SG!

Ramster’s record pick surprised me. I thought he would be a game or two over .500. On the other hand, I thought Jersey would be a game or two under.500.

Interesting spread of picks. I will admit, given my current state, the majority of my insight comes from here and the excellent info and intel you all provide.

That said, if I lose I will blame all of you!

Very interesting thread.

[reef]

Much like Obie used to do, here is a summary, and some highlights and "highlights," of the guesses for this year's contest...

Pure Averages and Figures. We had 71 entries this year, with an average prediction of 17.27 wins, 13.73 losses, 9.1 A-10 wins and 8.90 losses. The crowd expects PPG of 69.81, with the leading scorer - whoever that might be - pouring in 15.49 per game. Jaden House was the overwhelming favorite for that honor. Average attendance is guessed at 4,787.90.

I did split the guesses into pre- and post-exhibition for fun, to see if there was a major difference. The answer? Not so much! Pre-exhibition, the guesses averaged out to 17.05 wins and 13.95 losses. Post-exhibition, there was a slight budge upward to 17.27 and 13.73.

The Extremes. Rhodylaw is the high guesser in this year's contest, with 23. After that, three people tie with 21 overall wins - UCH21377, The Dude and Blue Man. Rhodylaw is also the high man when it comes to conference wins (13), with Blue Man and UCH21377 guessing 12.

On the other end of the spectrum, ramster pulls the last minute heel move! His guess of 10 overall wins is one less than mine, and three less than RI_Bred, ramfan85 and Not Mike Powell. Ramster, Not Mike Powell and myself each had a low guess of 5 conference wins.

Means, Medians and Modes. The average win total guess was 17.27 wins. Not surprisingly, there were 11 people who guessed 17 wins, and 13 that guessed 18 wins - the latter was the highest concentration of guesses for a win total. A dozen people guessed 19 wins, and eight had 20 wins. The median guess belongs to Spar (and others at 18 wins). Everyone who guessed 18 wins also guessed either 8, 9 or 10 conference wins. By far the most guessed path for URI this year is a somewhat good or gaudy OOC record (something like 8-5 to 10-3), followed by a near .500 performance in the conference slate.

POINTS! House is the overwhelming favorite to lead the team in PPG, earning the nod from 55(!) entries, roughly 77 percent of the entries. Montgomery "earned" second place with seven nods (9.8 percent). Fuchs and Kortright tallied four ballots each (5.63 percent), while ramster was the lone vote for Foumena (1.4 percent).

Billyboy was the lone person to project more than 20 PPG for House (20.36), which was 2 more than Rhodysurf. URIFIJI had the low guess, with 12.69 for Kortright. Rhodyrudder had the low guess for House, at 13.25.

When it comes to team PPG, NYGFan_Section208, URIFIJI and STC think we're returning to Baron Ball, with guesses of 64.62, 64.69 and 64.7 respectively. Conversely, luke had a guess of 76.2 PPG, a full point greater than KevanBoyles (74.8) and rhodyrudder (74.44).

Are You Not Entertained?!? Ram96 edged out Rhody Guy for the highest attendance guess, 5425 vs. 5391. Billyboy78 (5309) and rhodylaw (5275) were just behind them. The median guess was Jdrums#3, with 4858, flanked by Rhody Sody (4855) and URIFIJI (4869). The Gloomy Guses of attendance are ramster (3900), Spookydog (3939) and NarraRamFan (3948).

For a Google sheet with all of this year's entries laid out, click here.

Very very good job on the summary SG ! That’s why this contest is one of the best in the college hoops community!

[ramster]

Much like Obie used to do, here is a summary, and some highlights and "highlights," of the guesses for this year's contest...

Pure Averages and Figures. We had 71 entries this year, with an average prediction of 17.27 wins, 13.73 losses, 9.1 A-10 wins and 8.90 losses. The crowd expects PPG of 69.81, with the leading scorer - whoever that might be - pouring in 15.49 per game. Jaden House was the overwhelming favorite for that honor. Average attendance is guessed at 4,787.90.

I did split the guesses into pre- and post-exhibition for fun, to see if there was a major difference. The answer? Not so much! Pre-exhibition, the guesses averaged out to 17.05 wins and 13.95 losses. Post-exhibition, there was a slight budge upward to 17.27 and 13.73.

The Extremes. Rhodylaw is the high guesser in this year's contest, with 23. After that, three people tie with 21 overall wins - UCH21377, The Dude and Blue Man. Rhodylaw is also the high man when it comes to conference wins (13), with Blue Man and UCH21377 guessing 12.

On the other end of the spectrum, ramster pulls the last minute heel move! His guess of 10 overall wins is one less than mine, and three less than RI_Bred, ramfan85 and Not Mike Powell. Ramster, Not Mike Powell and myself each had a low guess of 5 conference wins.

Means, Medians and Modes. The average win total guess was 17.27 wins. Not surprisingly, there were 11 people who guessed 17 wins, and 13 that guessed 18 wins - the latter was the highest concentration of guesses for a win total. A dozen people guessed 19 wins, and eight had 20 wins. The median guess belongs to Spar (and others at 18 wins). Everyone who guessed 18 wins also guessed either 8, 9 or 10 conference wins. By far the most guessed path for URI this year is a somewhat good or gaudy OOC record (something like 8-5 to 10-3), followed by a near .500 performance in the conference slate.

POINTS! House is the overwhelming favorite to lead the team in PPG, earning the nod from 55(!) entries, roughly 77 percent of the entries. Montgomery "earned" second place with seven nods (9.8 percent). Fuchs and Kortright tallied four ballots each (5.63 percent), while ramster was the lone vote for Foumena (1.4 percent).

Billyboy was the lone person to project more than 20 PPG for House (20.36), which was 2 more than Rhodysurf. URIFIJI had the low guess, with 12.69 for Kortright. Rhodyrudder had the low guess for House, at 13.25.

When it comes to team PPG, NYGFan_Section208, URIFIJI and STC think we're returning to Baron Ball, with guesses of 64.62, 64.69 and 64.7 respectively. Conversely, luke had a guess of 76.2 PPG, a full point greater than KevanBoyles (74.8) and rhodyrudder (74.44).

Are You Not Entertained?!? Ram96 edged out Rhody Guy for the highest attendance guess, 5425 vs. 5391. Billyboy78 (5309) and rhodylaw (5275) were just behind them. The median guess was Jdrums#3, with 4858, flanked by Rhody Sody (4855) and URIFIJI (4869). The Gloomy Guses of attendance are ramster (3900), Spookydog (3939) and NarraRamFan (3948).

For a Google sheet with all of this year's entries laid out, click here.

I don't understand why you call this a last minute heel move. Pretty mean spirited.

Anybody in the contest knows the deadlines. Always have. I went for the extreme. Last season I went the other way picking the most wins and entered it last minute. Even admitted that was my strategy when questioned how stupid I could be picking so many wins. This year I went extreme low end. Doesn't even mean I think that's what will for sure happen. So please just take my out of the contest.

Please remove me from the contest in all of the categories. I'm out. I wasn't planning on taking the money anyway. Let it go to others.