2022-23 Grades after 25% of season

[RoadyJay]

We are ~25% through the season and ~60% through the non-conference schedule. The pulse from the board is that despite the 2-6 record we need to be patient, trust the process, and overall there are positive signs the team/program is moving in the right direction. I'd say this analysis is based mostly on our eye test and our emotional connection to the team. This is great for message board discussion but I wonder if we can take our collective analysis to the next level. What metrics would you use to grade the team?

If we simply look at wins and losses we currently have a .250 winning percentage with 5 non-conference games left. Extrapolating that over the rest of the non-conference schedule it would be reasonable to expect just another 1-2 non-conference wins. Even 3 more non-conference wins would put us at a 5-8 record for the non-conference schedule. Only one person in the prediction contest predicted 5 or fewer non-conference wins (adam914). In fact, more than 90% of contestants predicted we would finish above .500 in the non-conference. Most contestants predicted 8 non-conference wins (8-5 record).

If you use the prediction contest as a barometer, the season thus far is below most anyone's expectations. So are we giving too much credit for where we are at right now? Or are we just collectively lowering the bar for the season? Are there real criticisms deserved?

I'll give the team a C through 25% of the season. We all knew this would be a rebuild but it's worse than I expected. What I'm most disappointed in is that the team lacks any kind of real identity. Who are we? Even with Hurley's early teams there was an immediate identity and culture established.

[section(105)]

A Roady Jay sighting!!

[RoadyJay]

A Roady Jay sighting!!

Greetings, friend.

[Jdrums#3]

Roady, if I go by what I predicted in the contest, it’s a failure to date. However, my prediction was based on incomplete info and therefore, not very reliable. So, I won’t hold the team to my minimally educated prediction.

Looking at where we are from game one to date, I would grade us a C for fair. Showing improvement but not able to close the deal on a few winnable games prior to yesterday. Plus inconsistent play of good stretches and bad stretches within the same game.

Overall, we are playing hard and are on the right track.

As to your question, who are we? An outgunned team with no quit.

As to your closing sentence above, my memory isn’t what it used to be so, I am not sure of that contention. Others here with better memories would know better.

[JimSidd]

Regarding the contest predictions, it’s simply a matter of preseason optimism and fans being fans. It happens with all fans in all sports. I get that.
I didn’t participate this year as the deadline got away from me. Since I’ve been told by family members I’m a glass half empty guy, maybe I would have done well. With all the new players and new coaching staff, I have no idea what I would have predicted.

[RhowdyRam02]

I had a 7-6 prediction for the non-conference schedule and honestly there's still a solid chance of that happening. Brown, Army, and Milwaukee all at the Ryan Center are games we should be able to win now. UMass Lowell at home and Georgia St. on the road are both games we should have a solid chance of winning and there's a decent chance we'll be favored in at least one of those games if not both. Obviously we're not good enough that any of the games can be considered gimmes, the team will have to fight in all of those games, but that seems like a fair assessment to me. More than likely we'll go 3-2 or 4-1 in these last 5 games, but 5-0 wouldn't shock me. A losing record would be a big disappointment barring unforeseen circumstances.

If I had to grade based on what I thought going in I'd say a C. If I had to grade based on my realization of how massive the rebuild was going to be after the Quinnipiac game I'd bump it up to a C+ or B-

[Rhodymob05]

Based on a non-healthy roster compared to my expectations based on a healthy roster I’d give a C+. But started off as a C-.

[PeterRamTime]

If we had a healthy and eligible roster there wouldn't be nearly as much concern. Part of that is being 2-6. I mean we started off with basically no Bray and then no Bilau and others were banged up. We should be 4-4. If we're 4-4 right now we don't feel as meh.

Bray, Ish, Bilau and Samb are all better than I thought they'd be and everyone else has shown flashes.

The coaching has been good. We run competent plays on offense. Easy to see how that will lead to more significant success later on. Our defense got trashed against PC, but before that they had mostly played very solid.

The team fights like hell!! They don't give up and that's something we've missed for a while around here.

All we have done is get better. Archie did what he needed to do to get Bray going and boy is he a really good player.

When Carey returns we'll be better. Finally another guard who can get a bucket. Weston had a few nice plays out there when he was actually aggressive, wouldn't shock me if he eventually contributes by the end of the year.

It's super early and all I've seen is a young inexperienced team get better every single game.

[McRam]

My biggest disappointment so far is the defense of Hutch. His man seems to always lose him and add to that terrible rebounding and lack of general floor defensive awareness.

I think Weston should get more opportunities where he can post up low where he will use his strength.

Bilau obviously better than expected.

Does Archie ever play a zone for a few minutes?

[reef]

I think Weston’s breakout game is coming soon

[theblueram]

I would have to give it a D. Just being honest. And I was pessimistic in the prediction contest. Some of these players are just not A10 quality players. And it seems we already have '23 players locked up who are 2 stars. Gonna be interesting.

[rhodysurf]

My biggest disappointment so far is the defense of Hutch. His man seems to always lose him and add to that terrible rebounding and lack of general floor defensive awareness.

I think Weston should get more opportunities where he can post up low where he will use his strength.

Bilau obviously better than expected.

Does Archie ever play a zone for a few minutes?

Archie plays packline. Going zone would almost no impact tbh, packline is like match up zone kinda anyways

[McRam]

Help understand what a pack line is; to me it looks as,if it is a traditional man to man with little pressure on the ball.

???

[Seawrightspostgame]

This team sucks. Not great given frank martin looks like a top A10 squad and was hired at the same time.

I like our players but we are pretty bad. I really don’t like how bad we are.

[RoadyJay]

Help understand what a pack line is; to me it looks as,if it is a traditional man to man with little pressure on the ball.

???

It's a sagging man-to-man... There is pressure on the ball, but the off defenders sag below the packline, which is an imaginary line inside the 3-point line. The goal is to protect the paint/dribble penetration and force contested 3s.

[Jdrums#3]

Help understand what a pack line is; to me it looks as,if it is a traditional man to man with little pressure on the ball.

???

McRam, pack line D is a sagging man to man for the off the ball defenders and on the ball pressure for the player with the ball. The sagging defenders help in defending the lane when played correctly.

That’s a very short and simple summary. I think back in the spring a KB’er (I can’t remember who) referenced a video or two I watched that was interesting. If you google Archie Miller and pack line defense it should come up.

Thinking back now, It may have been BlueMan or SteveyStuds that posted about the video’s.

Incidentally, there was a good video on Archie’s fast break offense I watched back then too that someone here mentioned, I believe. Not a long video and worth the time if you get a chance to check it out. I may try to re-watch myself.

Interesting stuff if you enjoy strategy.

Note: I missed RoadyJay’s summary above. It is good. Check his post.

[UCH21377]

I’m sorry but 2-6 against the schedule we’ve played is a D. On the bright side you can see these kids are getting coached up. We need some more scorers.

[Blue Man]

I’m sorry but 2-6 against the schedule we’ve played is a D. On the bright side you can see these kids are getting coached up. We need some more scorers.

100%. The transition and Archie's motion offense are the easiest things to pick up. The defense is probably the most complex of any systems you'll see in the NCAA.

Archie knows this. He knows his methods work. He knows his system works. Not many schools use a Pack Line (Virginia does, and won a natty).

Hence why you don't see one year rentals for Archie, there's not a lot out there who have played in a pack line system. Arch knows his kids will at least need a year to understand how this defense works properly.

Once again, this is why I haven't lost hope for the remaining 75% of the season. The more we play, the more we get burned, the more our players are going to understand what they're supposed to be doing. And once this defense becomes natural, we're going to be very hard to score on.

[rhodyrudder]

We sometimes do polls at the end of the season.
I rate it as D, passing only because Archie set the tone by removing Freeman after the Mason game.
But he has a lot of work to do.

[RoadyJay]

We sometimes do polls at the end of the season.
I rate it as D, passing only because Archie set the tone by removing Freeman after the Mason game.
But he has a lot of work to do.

Agree with you Rudder. D is a fair grade. Could have been worse but overall it was pretty awful. After Hurley’s first year the sentiment was very positive despite the poor record. We were looking forward to the Italy trip and EC and Hass as incoming Freshmen. Don’t feel the same sentiment after Archie’s first season. He can still turn things around quickly, but we are in need of a serious talent upgrade.

[RhowdyRam02]

I had a 7-6 prediction for the non-conference schedule and honestly there's still a solid chance of that happening. Brown, Army, and Milwaukee all at the Ryan Center are games we should be able to win now. UMass Lowell at home and Georgia St. on the road are both games we should have a solid chance of winning and there's a decent chance we'll be favored in at least one of those games if not both. Obviously we're not good enough that any of the games can be considered gimmes, the team will have to fight in all of those games, but that seems like a fair assessment to me. More than likely we'll go 3-2 or 4-1 in these last 5 games, but 5-0 wouldn't shock me. A losing record would be a big disappointment barring unforeseen circumstances.

If I had to grade based on what I thought going in I'd say a C. If I had to grade based on my realization of how massive the rebuild was going to be after the Quinnipiac game I'd bump it up to a C+ or B-

After a full season I now give this year a grade of C- or D+. Losing Freeman, while the right thing based on the circumstances, sets this program back talent wise and really I wasn't impressed with the overall development of our younger players. I was expecting a couple or a few guys to shows signs of being part of our next good team when really they all seem to be question marks that showed enough sparks where if they come back you can try to project something there, but no sure things. To be second to last in this version of the A10 and leave Brooklyn Tuesday with barely a whimper is unacceptable, rebuild or not

[reef]

That’s fair I’m in that same grade range

[NYGFan_Section208]

We sometimes do polls at the end of the season.
I rate it as D, passing only because Archie set the tone by removing Freeman after the Mason game.
But he has a lot of work to do.

Agree with you Rudder. D is a fair grade. Could have been worse but overall it was pretty awful. After Hurley’s first year the sentiment was very positive despite the poor record. We were looking forward to the Italy trip and EC and Hass as incoming Freshmen. Don’t feel the same sentiment after Archie’s first season. He can still turn things around quickly, but we are in need of a serious talent upgrade.

Hoping for Stealthpalooza action....multiple transactions, like you used to see in the newspaper...in agate print