2019-20 Bracketology

[RF1]

These quad comparisons are not really fair when there is such a difference in where the games are played. Just looking at records is highly beneficial to the high profile conference teams that provide many q1 and q2 home games.

There is some truth to that but also some fiction.
PC is currently 6-8 in Q1 games and 2-0 in Q2 games.
Of their 14 Q1 games, 9 were on the road and 1 was on a neutral court.
They have had 4 Q1 home games and 2 Q2 home games.
Sure, that's more home games than what URI may play, but it's not like they are playing 12 Q1 home games and 4 Q1 road games.

URI has thus far had ZERO Q1 home games and will likely end the season with just one (Dayton).

[rjsuperfly66]

These quad comparisons are not really fair when there is such a difference in where the games are played. Just looking at records is highly beneficial to the high profile conference teams that provide many q1 and q2 home games.

There is some truth to that but also some fiction.
PC is currently 6-8 in Q1 games and 2-0 in Q2 games.
Of their 14 Q1 games, 9 were on the road and 1 was on a neutral court.
They have had 4 Q1 home games and 2 Q2 home games.
Sure, that's more home games than what URI may play, but it's not like they are playing 12 Q1 home games and 4 Q1 road games.

URI has thus far had ZERO Q1 home games and will likely end the season with just one (Dayton).

I guess my counter to that is how is that PC's fault?
If PC were getting fat and happy only winning Q1 games at home, I'd accept the argument
PC has wins at Marquette and Butler who are both solidly in the tournament picture, plus at Georgetown who is/was a bubble team.
They can only play the schedule in front of them, which thankfully affords them plenty of quality opportunities.
However, I also understand that Q1 games can be inequitable and should not be a sole reason for inclusion.
I had this response earlier today on the other board:
"I just don't think it's all about Q1 wins. For schools like Richmond or Northern Iowa, they are not going to have the volume of Q1 games as PC. PC has played 14 Q1 games, Richmond has played 6, Northern Iowa has played 2. Should UNI be automatically eliminated from the bubble, even if they go undefeated the rest of the way but take on a Q2 loss in the MVC finals, because they only had 1 Q1 win in 2 chances?"
I of course believe they do not, although their margin for error is small given the amount of potential bad losses on the remaining schedule.

[RF1]

There is some truth to that but also some fiction.
PC is currently 6-8 in Q1 games and 2-0 in Q2 games.
Of their 14 Q1 games, 9 were on the road and 1 was on a neutral court.
They have had 4 Q1 home games and 2 Q2 home games.
Sure, that's more home games than what URI may play, but it's not like they are playing 12 Q1 home games and 4 Q1 road games.

URI has thus far had ZERO Q1 home games and will likely end the season with just one (Dayton).

I guess my counter to that is how is that PC's fault?
If PC were getting fat and happy only winning Q1 games at home, I'd accept the argument
PC has wins at Marquette and Butler who are both solidly in the tournament picture, plus at Georgetown who is/was a bubble team.
They can only play the schedule in front of them, which thankfully affords them plenty of quality opportunities.
However, I also understand that Q1 games can be inequitable and should not be a sole reason for inclusion.
I had this response earlier today on the other board:
"I just don't think it's all about Q1 wins. For schools like Richmond or Northern Iowa, they are not going to have the volume of Q1 games as PC. PC has played 14 Q1 games, Richmond has played 6, Northern Iowa has played 2. Should UNI be automatically eliminated from the bubble, even if they go undefeated the rest of the way but take on a Q2 loss in the MVC finals, because they only had 1 Q1 win in 2 chances?"
I of course believe they do not, although their margin for error is small given the amount of potential bad losses on the remaining schedule.

I could care less about PC. It is you that keeps bringing them up for some reason regarding my posts. My contention is that all of these other bubble teams will have their Quad 1 records brought up and compared to URI with little factoring in of where the games took place.

[UCH21377]

DePaul’s OOC was really good yet there in last place. No doubt the league is really solid but a line has to be drawn somewhere based on conference play IMO. Maybe not .500 but maybe a percentage of the league? Not sure putting 11 Big Ten teams in the tourney is fair but it might happen

[theblueram]

What about Seton Hall's OOC? I mean they beat Maryland at home, but how did they get lofty before conference play?

[ramster]

You can get a feel for how the other side thinks about URI in today’s discussion on PC or URI getting selected.....

https://247sports.com/college/providenc ... 93/?page=9

[TruePoint]

Imagine caring

[ElmCityRhody]

JUST SAY NO ... TO PC..

ok, now I can go to sleep

[LoveThoseRams]

You can get a feel for how the other side thinks about URI in today’s discussion on PC or URI getting selected.....

https://247sports.com/college/providenc ... 93/?page=9

Thanks, but no. We don’t want to ride these PeeC coattails. The posters on this trash board seem to think they are the reason we are securely in.

[RhowdyRam02]

In this morning's Bracketville update we remain in the second to last bye and and an 11 seed in Cleveland, but now we're taking on Michigan

[rjsuperfly66]

What about Seton Hall's OOC? I mean they beat Maryland at home, but how did they get lofty before conference play?

Seton Hall's NET was in the 30s when Big East play started.

During the OOC, they played 4 Q1 games and 3 Q2 games.

They went 1-3 in Q1 games and 2-1 in Q2 games.

That was offset by their efficiency against bad opponents, who they outscored by 132 points in 5 games.

[bigappleram]

Seton Hall is legit. If Powell is on. His shooting percentages are significantly down from previous 3 seasons, but when he is on they are the best team in the BE. The BE is definitely the most balanced league in the country, high floor. But they don't have the same ceiling as Big 12 or Big 10, aren't as strong at the top.

[Rhodymob05]

Oklahoma is 1-9 vs Quad 1 and currently sit in front of URI on bracketville. Perfect example of P5 bias, or am I wrong?

[PeterRamTime]

Oklahoma is 1-9 vs Quad 1 and currently sit in front of URI on bracketville. Perfect example of P5 bias, or am I wrong?

They are also 8-1 against the Quad 2 and have no bad losses.

[Rhodymob05]

Oklahoma is 1-9 vs Quad 1 and currently sit in front of URI on bracketville. Perfect example of P5 bias, or am I wrong?

They are also 8-1 against the Quad 2 and have no bad losses.

True, their worst loss seems to be @ Kansas state who currently sits at 9-17.

[reef]

Come on bracketmatrix update your site already !!

[steviep123]

Oklahoma is 1-9 vs Quad 1 and currently sit in front of URI on bracketville. Perfect example of P5 bias, or am I wrong?

They are also 8-1 against the Quad 2 and have no bad losses.

True, their worst loss seems to be @ Kansas state who currently sits at 9-17.

A loss to a 9-17 team isn't a bad loss?

[Rhodymob05]

They are also 8-1 against the Quad 2 and have no bad losses.

True, their worst loss seems to be @ Kansas state who currently sits at 9-17.

A loss to a 9-17 team isn't a bad loss?

Their net is still at 99, so apparently not that bad.

[theblueram]

True, their worst loss seems to be @ Kansas state who currently sits at 9-17.

A loss to a 9-17 team isn't a bad loss?

Their net is still at 99, so apparently not that bad.

I think RPI has them better spotted at #175. A 9-17 team is a top 100 team in NET? Yeah, ok.

[Blue Man]

A loss to a 9-17 team isn't a bad loss?

Their net is still at 99, so apparently not that bad.

I think RPI has them better spotted at #175. A 9-17 team is a top 100 team in NET? Yeah, ok.

Nothing will ever be perfect - but I don't get the "hate" various metrics get here. Definitely not singling you out BR, as many have put their hate out there for the NET or RPI or KP, etc - but it just perplexes me.

It's math.

The glorious thing about math is that it doesn't lie. It's just an equation.

It's near impossible to "perfectly" rank 351 teams who do not play each other or nearly similar schedules against nearly similar teams.

I like NET better than RPI because it seems the only way to "beat" it is by literally beating the shit out of teams on your schedule. So at least you have to win and win big to make it work in your favor.

RPI you can just schedule a good team and voila - you get a bump. If you schedule a good team and get shellacked, your rating will go down. If you schedule a good team and play them tough - you'll get a bump. If anything URI would've had a great NET under Baron because of the "almost" factor where we just seemingly lost every game in heartbreaking fashion.

[RF1]

The metrics may be math but their rules can still be slanted to produce an intended general outcome. Furthermore, the metrics alone do not select the teams for the field. People on the committee do and they often subjectively apply the metrics differently in many cases. Science and math do not always justify their picks.

[theblueram]

Bracket Matrix now has us as the first #10 seed. Need to get this win today.

[theblueram]

I was going through the Big East OOC for each team. It amazes me how this conference is ranked so high. Now I know why they get demolished in the NCAAT every year.

[PeterRamTime]

Bracket Matrix now has us as the first #10 seed. Need to get this win today.

Nope.

We are not in a safe place now.

[The Dude]

Personally, I've seen this play out time and time again with Baron coached teams. We are on the cusp of making the tournament and then URI does something like loses to UMass in the last game of the season and it all goes out the window.
In my opinion, if URI loses to anyone but Dayton in the last 4 games they have left, they won't make the tournament unless they make the finals of the A10 tournament and even then I'd think they might have to win it. Teams like PC are slowly playing their way in right now and URI will be playing their way out, if they lose to mediocre - poor competition.URI hasn't even beaten a ranked opponent. As strong as URI's schedule has been this year I personally don't think there hasn't been a great win or two for them to hang their hat on (goods wins, yes, but not "great") and show the committee they are worthy of making it in more than teams that have had the occasional ranked upset (ex: VCU hung around in most pundits tournament projections even when they lost to medocre-poor teams because they had shown they could beat a team like LSU who was ranked at one point).
I'm hopeful that Rhody can keep it together down the stretch.

[steveystuds06]

We have to win out.

[PeterRamTime]

We shall see how it goes, but we MUST beat Fordham, SLU and UMass. Then I think a win in the quarterfinals would probably put us in.

On the bright side..... we probably dont have to worry about the 8 or 9 seed.

[Rhody15]

Beat Fordham, beat St Louis, lose Dayton, beat UMASS.

Quarterfinals most likely play VCU St Louis or Davidson.

Win that, then probably Richmond in semis.

I’d guess we’d have to beat Richmond in the semis to earn a bid.

[JimSidd]

We shall see how it goes, but we MUST beat Fordham, SLU and UMass. Then I think a win in the quarterfinals would probably put us in.

On the bright side..... we probably dont have to worry about the 8 or 9 seed.

Agree with this take. As much as tonight’s game ended poorly, losing at Davidson is not a horrible loss.
Team needs a signature win, though, and we all know the opportunity exists on March 4.

[bigappleram]

Finish 2nd and we are in. If not all bets are off.

[reef]

I would think if we finish in second alone 14-4 and win the quarter final game that we would make it but crazier things have happened and we are out of the A10 so we could get screwed on selection Sunday

[PeterRamTime]

We shall see how it goes, but we MUST beat Fordham, SLU and UMass. Then I think a win in the quarterfinals would probably put us in.

On the bright side..... we probably dont have to worry about the 8 or 9 seed.

Agree with this take. As much as tonight’s game ended poorly, losing at Davidson is not a horrible loss.
Team needs a signature win, though, and we all know the opportunity exists on March 4.

Let's just please beat Fordham...

[rhodyruckus]

I think we're a 10 or 11 seed all day, and these type of teams lose to Davidson on the road like the computers and Vegas predicted. Nothing changes if Brown stays our only bad loss. If we lose one of the 3 games we shouldn't, then it's nut crunching time and making the A10 finals becomes the minimum bar to clear.

[RF1]

Davidson was 14-4 in the A-10 last season and as the 2nd seed went 1-1 in the A-10 Tourney (knocked out by eventual champ SLU) missing the dance with a record of 23-9. Getting an at large NCAA invite from the league is unfortunately becoming increasingly more difficult.

[gorhody89]

Davidson was 14-4 in the A-10 last season and as the 2nd seed went 1-1 in the A-10 Tourney (knocked out by eventual champ SLU) missing the dance with a record of 23-9. Getting an at large NCAA invite from the league is unfortunately becoming increasingly more difficult.

A10 is much stronger this year

[RF1]

Davidson was 14-4 in the A-10 last season and as the 2nd seed went 1-1 in the A-10 Tourney (knocked out by eventual champ SLU) missing the dance with a record of 23-9. Getting an at large NCAA invite from the league is unfortunately becoming increasingly more difficult.

A10 is much stronger this year

I agree it is much stronger. That still however may unfortunately not be enough to translate into more NCAA at large bids.

[adam914]

It will be interesting to see what happens if we go into Selection Sunday with just the one Quad 1 win. Looking around at the NET rankings today, and focusing specifically on the teams ranked in the 30-50 range (which I am guessing is approximate bubble territory), we are one of only two teams in that range with just one Quad 1 win. Northern Iowa is the other, and Liberty has zero. I don't think Liberty is worthy of at-large discussion right now, and Northern Iowa is probably a long shot to. I'm not sure thats the company we want to be in come selection time.

What we do have in our favor are the five Quad 2 wins. In that same 30-50 range there are only four other schools with five or more Quad 2 wins.

As for bad losses, there are only five teams in that range that have more than one Quad 3 or Quad 4 loss. The rest all have either the same one bad loss as us or none at all. So I worry that the angle of "we only have 1 bad loss" may not carry as much weight as we hope since it doesn't necessarily differentiate us from the other teams in this range that much.

All this is to say that I think it will be very interesting to see what exactly they weigh when it comes down to making a selection. Will our lack of Q1 wins kill us in the end when there is a cluster of schools in the bubble range that have more, or will our solid Q2 record be enough to put us in over a team with more Q1 wins. I think that could be what it comes down to in the end.

Now with all that being said, let's beat Dayton and leave no doubt!

[PeterRamTime]

Davidson was 14-4 in the A-10 last season and as the 2nd seed went 1-1 in the A-10 Tourney (knocked out by eventual champ SLU) missing the dance with a record of 23-9. Getting an at large NCAA invite from the league is unfortunately becoming increasingly more difficult.

A10 is much stronger this year

I agree it is much stronger. That still however may unfortunately not be enough to translate into more NCAA at large bids.

Not an apt comparison.

The A-10 is way stronger and we have better wins than they had in the non-conference.

[ramster]

@ Fordham
Saint Louis
Dayton
@ UMASS

All tough games. Winning at Fordham is always a challenge.
Goodwin, French and Perkins are playing well
Dayton e’nuff said
UMASS - I’m now just hoping the game still means something

[RamStock]

@ Fordham
Saint Louis
Dayton
@ UMASS

All tough games. Winning at Fordham is always a challenge.
Goodwin, French and Perkins are playing well
Dayton e’nuff said
UMASS - I’m now just hoping the game still means something

These games are not tough games if you are a tourney caliber team. Umass and Fordham on the road are two of the easiest places to play. St.Louis is not good on the road. It would be nice to win one game at home as the underdog that other teams do all the time which the Dayton game is.

[reef]

If we can’t go 3-1 in these next 4 we probably don’t deserve to make it

[DanInAZ]

I told my brother before the season started the magic number for wins = 23. Was true then, true now. Just get to 23 in any way, shape or form.

If we are at the point where an Atlantic 10 team needs 25 victories to get into the dance, then the dance isn't the same dance I fell in love with.

[JimSidd]

For what it’s worth, Palm has Rhody and PC at one and two on his first four out line. I suspect most KBers will reply that this is worth nothing, based on comments about him I have read lately.
We’d better hope he’s wrong. Bracket Matrix is still as of yesterday. I would expect an update later today.

[SmartyBarrett]

For what it’s worth, Palm has Rhody and PC at one and two on his first four out line. I suspect most KBers will reply that this is worth nothing, based on comments about him I have read lately.
We’d better hope he’s wrong. Bracket Matrix is still as of yesterday. I would expect an update later today.

Palm’s bracket production skills are traditionally very, very bad. Worth looking at? Of course. But I wouldn’t put much stock into it.

[RhodyRam86]

After the BYU/Zags game last night Lunardi still had Richmond in the last 4 in (even with their loss to Bonnies). He did not show URI in the last 4 byes or last 4 in so he still has them comfortably in. He said so many bubble teams lost that there really wasn't much movement.

[PeterRamTime]

For what it’s worth, Palm has Rhody and PC at one and two on his first four out line. I suspect most KBers will reply that this is worth nothing, based on comments about him I have read lately.
We’d better hope he’s wrong. Bracket Matrix is still as of yesterday. I would expect an update later today.

Palm’s bracket production skills are traditionally very, very bad. Worth looking at? Of course. But I wouldn’t put much stock into it.

No use in ever even looking at his projections.

[TruePoint]

I am still really mad about yesterday’s game, but calm enough now to re-engage this discussion in a rational way. Before yesterday, URI had to win 5 games between then and when they leave Brooklyn to make the NCAA tournament. Today, they have to win 5 games before they leave Brooklyn to make the NCAA tournament, but they have one less opportunity to get one.

We’re still in OK position, but we squandered a very good chance to get a helpful win. Things aren’t as good as they were 24 hours ago, but we aren’t dead yet.

[RamStock]

I am still really mad about yesterday’s game, but calm enough now to re-engage this discussion in a rational way. Before yesterday, URI had to win 5 games between then and when they leave Brooklyn to make the NCAA tournament. Today, they have to win 5 games before they leave Brooklyn to make the NCAA tournament, but they have one less opportunity to get one.

We’re still in OK position, but we squandered a very good chance to get a helpful win. Things aren’t as good as they were 24 hours ago, but we aren’t dead yet.

I’m not sure we are in a OK position if you feel we need 5 wins. You are talking sweeping the last 4 games and winning one in A-10 tourney or lose to Dayton only and get to A-10 finals. It feels like less than 50% chance we do either of the two.

[jaywin86]

I am still really mad about yesterday’s game, but calm enough now to re-engage this discussion in a rational way. Before yesterday, URI had to win 5 games between then and when they leave Brooklyn to make the NCAA tournament. Today, they have to win 5 games before they leave Brooklyn to make the NCAA tournament, but they have one less opportunity to get one.

We’re still in OK position, but we squandered a very good chance to get a helpful win. Things aren’t as good as they were 24 hours ago, but we aren’t dead yet.

same here TP on yesterday and calm of today to reenter the convo.

although i see it as win the next 4 and brooklyn doesn't matter. say we go 3-1 and dayton is the loss. Then, we'll need a brooklyn win

[theblueram]

I think if we beat Fordham, Slu and Umass we are in. No need for anything further. Lose to any of those teams, and the make up has to happen in the A10 tourney.