2019-20 Bracketology

[RamStock]

Your mouth to (Shamm)god's ears, but I could see falling out with a 3-3 finish and losing in the A10 quarters. I flashback to Baron's several 20-win teams that fell short of the tourney every time. I'll believe a 21-10 URI team this millennium will make the tourney when I see it. That said, the scheduling was as good as can be expected to support a URI team with a very good but not great record to make it.

They are out with a 3-3 finish. Cmon seriously. You think if they lose to Dayton, Davidson and either St.Louis or Umass they are in good shape? They will be out real quick. Watch what happens to VCU after their loss tonight. They are out. A combination of losing quality VCU wins and not having enough else on their resume despite a weak bubble. I think 4-2 is going to be really testing the waters. This isn’t one of the Power 5 conferences

Finish 2nd in A10 Regular season (A10 is definitely getting two teams) and at least make it to the semi finals in Brooklyn.
Richmond has the tiebreaker on Rhody. We need VCU to beat Richmond this weekend.

I don’t think it matters who finishes second in terms of a tourney bid. I agree that two teams will make it, but it could also come in the form of the auto bid with teams like the Bonnie’s, Richmond, URI, VCU and St.Louis all capable of a run. I think we just have to take care of business. I still think we can pull off a win at home vs Dayton, but the Davidson game is the one that is huge

[PeterRamTime]

I mean so long as we make it, but it would be a shame if 3 teams did not make it this year.

[rjsuperfly66]

I could have butchered this but I think URI's in a pretty good spot away from the bubble unless they go 2-4 and lost 2 of St. Joe's, Fordham, and UMASS.

Your mouth to (Shamm)god's ears, but I could see falling out with a 3-3 finish and losing in the A10 quarters. I flashback to Baron's several 20-win teams that fell short of the tourney every time. I'll believe a 21-10 URI team this millennium will make the tourney when I see it. That said, the scheduling was as good as can be expected to support a URI team with a very good but not great record to make it.

They are out with a 3-3 finish. Cmon seriously. You think if they lose to Dayton, Davidson and either St.Louis or Umass they are in good shape? They will be out real quick. Watch what happens to VCU after their loss tonight. They are out. A combination of losing quality VCU wins and not having enough else on their resume despite a weak bubble. I think 4-2 is going to be really testing the waters. This isn’t one of the Power 5 conferences

The difference is positioning. VCU will be out after tonight because they were already seen as a borderline tournament team who took a bad loss at home. That bumps them from a fringe playin team to a fringe #1 NIT seed at a minimum. As of last night URI was the 13th team from out in the field per BM. Losing to Dayton will do minimal. Taking L's to Davidson and SLU would not be pretty but shouldn't be earth-shattering. I'd see them as a mid-late 10 seed who couldn't afford any bad losses at the A10T and would probably want to snag one more nice W just to be safe. Now I think that would be different if they go 3-3 but sub out a UMASS loss for SLU, then I think they are in that 11-seed, play-in range where things can get hairy.

[steviep123]

I think URI's status is pretty solid. This is what I would approximate their regular season movement to be:

Home St. Joe's - Win: Move 0-1 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.
At Davidson - Win: Move up 1-2 two spots. Lose: Drop 1-2 spots.
at Fordham - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.
Home St. Louis - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 1-2 spots.
Home Dayton - Win: Move up 3-4 spots. Lose: Drop 0-1 spots.
At Umass - Win: Move up 1-2 spots. Lose: Drop 5-6 spots.

Best case: 6-0 Move up 7-13 spots. Range from best 6th seed to 2nd best 7 seed. Odds of going 6-0: 9.5%
Worse Case: 0-6 Fall 17-23 spots. Range from 5th out (2 seed NIT) to 11th out (3 seed NIT). Odds of going 0-6: .007%
Other scenarios: 5-1 (loss to Dayton). Move up 4-8 spots. Range from 2nd best 7th seed to 2nd best 8 seed.
Other scenarios: 5-1 (loss to SLU/Davidson). Move up 5-9 spots. Range from best 7th seed to best 8 seed.
Other scenarios: 4-2 (loss to Dayton and Davidson/SLU). Move up 0-4 spots. Range from 2nd best 8 seed to 2nd best 9 seed.

I could have butchered this but I think URI's in a pretty good spot away from the bubble unless they go 2-4 and lost 2 of St. Joe's, Fordham, and UMASS.

This is a fair assessment. I think a good realistic expectation is to go 4-2 with losses to 2 of Dayton/Davidson/SLU, and beating UMass, Fordham, and St. Joe's. Losing to one of the latter three without a win over Dayton to offset would be devastating. But ideally, we win 2 out of the Dayton/Davidson/SLU trio and take the other 3 games we should win (on paper) for a 5-1 record down the stretch. Get to at least the semis from there, and we are looking really good on Selection Sunday.

Edit: PS: RJ how did you calculate the percentages for 6-0 and 0-6 and what would they be for other possibilities?

I used the KenPom percentages for win probability to come up with those numbers. Do you have a specific scenario you would like for me to run? If I did my math right, there is a 32.5% chance of URI going 5-1.

Just realized I didn't respond. I think 4-2 and 5-1 would be good to have. 3-3 or worse, would probably have them on the outside looking in, so probably not worth it.

I'm sure the 4-2 would depend on who the wins and losses are to of course.

[theblueram]

Bilas has his latest rankings out:

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... version-30

39. Rhode Island Rams

"The Atlantic 10 has been Dayton's show this season, but there's a lot to like about a Rhode Island team that saw a 10-game win streak snapped by the Flyers on Tuesday night. Philly native Fatts Russell (20.3 PPG, 4.5 APG) is the league's best player not named Obi Toppin, and will be playing in the NCAA tournament for the second time in his career."

[ramster]

Your mouth to (Shamm)god's ears, but I could see falling out with a 3-3 finish and losing in the A10 quarters. I flashback to Baron's several 20-win teams that fell short of the tourney every time. I'll believe a 21-10 URI team this millennium will make the tourney when I see it. That said, the scheduling was as good as can be expected to support a URI team with a very good but not great record to make it.

They are out with a 3-3 finish. Cmon seriously. You think if they lose to Dayton, Davidson and either St.Louis or Umass they are in good shape? They will be out real quick. Watch what happens to VCU after their loss tonight. They are out. A combination of losing quality VCU wins and not having enough else on their resume despite a weak bubble. I think 4-2 is going to be really testing the waters. This isn’t one of the Power 5 conferences

The difference is positioning. VCU will be out after tonight because they were already seen as a borderline tournament team who took a bad loss at home. That bumps them from a fringe playin team to a fringe #1 NIT seed at a minimum. As of last night URI was the 13th team from out in the field per BM. Losing to Dayton will do minimal. Taking L's to Davidson and SLU would not be pretty but shouldn't be earth-shattering. I'd see them as a mid-late 10 seed who couldn't afford any bad losses at the A10T and would probably want to snag one more nice W just to be safe. Now I think that would be different if they go 3-3 but sub out a UMASS loss for SLU, then I think they are in that 11-seed, play-in range where things can get hairy.

Agree Ramstock. No way URI is in if they finish 3-3. Doesn’t even matter who the 3 wins or losses are against. 3-3 just won’t cut it.

[ElmCityRhody]

one game at a time fellas
let's get this done.

[rjsuperfly66]

Agree Ramstock. No way URI is in if they finish 3-3. Doesn’t even matter who the 3 wins or losses are against. 3-3 just won’t cut it.

You guys are just negative nancies -- If URI is 21-9 entering the A10T, accumulating no additional Q3/Q4 losses, they should be fine. The bubble is charmin soft this year. They just need to avoid a Q3/Q4 loss at all costs. The Brown loss sucks, but all of their other losses have been to legit NCAA or NIT teams. It's not like they are sitting there with 2-3 Q3/Q4 losses.

[ramster]

Agree Ramstock. No way URI is in if they finish 3-3. Doesn’t even matter who the 3 wins or losses are against. 3-3 just won’t cut it.

You guys are just negative nancies -- If URI is 21-9 entering the A10T, accumulating no additional Q3/Q4 losses, they should be fine. The bubble is charmin soft this year. They just need to avoid a Q3/Q4 loss at all costs.

Losing 3 of our last 6 games would likely not even get us One of the valued first 4 team seeds to get the bye in the A10 Tournament.
We would have 5 A10 losses if we lose 3 more games. We would not have the tiebreaker with Richmond. We would have to at least get to the Championship Game and probably would have to win it if we had 5 A10 losses. Maybe if we lost to Dayton in the Championship Game but it could not be a blow out.

[PeterRamTime]

We would be super borderline going 3-3 headed into the A-10 tournament. Might need one or two wins there. Dont know if we would have to win the whole thing. It would be close.

Good thing that isn't happening.

Before tuesday we were absolutely rolling. Have to think we havent lost that completely.

Still a long way to go.

Davidson and Saint Louis are no joke and no way do we want to drop one to stupid UMass.

[rjsuperfly66]

Agree Ramstock. No way URI is in if they finish 3-3. Doesn’t even matter who the 3 wins or losses are against. 3-3 just won’t cut it.

You guys are just negative nancies -- If URI is 21-9 entering the A10T, accumulating no additional Q3/Q4 losses, they should be fine. The bubble is charmin soft this year. They just need to avoid a Q3/Q4 loss at all costs.

Losing 3 of our last 6 games would likely not even get us One of the valued first 4 team seeds to get the bye in the A10 Tournament.
We would have 5 A10 losses if we lose 3 more games. We would not have the tiebreaker with Richmond. We would have to at least get to the Championship Game and probably would have to win it if we had 5 A10 losses. Maybe if we lost to Dayton in the Championship Game but it could not be a blow out.

I just think you are giving too much credit to the other bubble teams. I think many of those teams can do just enough to remain relevant, but I don't see any of them blowing by URI at this point. Is Stanford, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia, Arizona St., Cincy, Miss St., Minnesota, Memphis, Georgetown etc going to get red-hot and zoom right by URI? Probably not. Yes, some of those teams might pick up a really nice win or two. They'll also probably pile up their own losses. URI has solidified themselves enough at this point to look like a solid tournament team to most people. If they win on Saturday, I would be shocked if they aren't showing up in many brackets as a weaker 8-seed next week on BM. I'm sorry at that point I don't buy them falling 15-16+ spots in losses to 3 decent teams, including one truly great team. That may leave them wanting to do work in the A10T because of bid-stealers, etc, but that is a different story.

[steviep123]

Agree Ramstock. No way URI is in if they finish 3-3. Doesn’t even matter who the 3 wins or losses are against. 3-3 just won’t cut it.

You guys are just negative nancies -- If URI is 21-9 entering the A10T, accumulating no additional Q3/Q4 losses, they should be fine. The bubble is charmin soft this year. They just need to avoid a Q3/Q4 loss at all costs. The Brown loss sucks, but all of their other losses have been to legit NCAA or NIT teams. It's not like they are sitting there with 2-3 Q3/Q4 losses.

RJ you are mainly right, but there's some dependencies. 3-3 means 21-9 walking in. It may depend on who the wins/losses are against. If we beat UMass/Fordham/St. Joe's, then the other 3 games are (I think) Q1/Q2 losses, so we are probably safe regardless of the A10 tournament. If we lose to one of UMass/Fordham/St. Joe's will the 3rd win need to be Dayton to make up for another Q3/Q4 loss?

That said, in theory, if they beat the teams they absolutely have no business losing to (ie, the mentioned 3), then they should still be in even with 3 losses in the Dayton/Davidson/SLU group. If they go 4-2 or 5-1, it's a no brainer.

[rjsuperfly66]

Agree Ramstock. No way URI is in if they finish 3-3. Doesn’t even matter who the 3 wins or losses are against. 3-3 just won’t cut it.

You guys are just negative nancies -- If URI is 21-9 entering the A10T, accumulating no additional Q3/Q4 losses, they should be fine. The bubble is charmin soft this year. They just need to avoid a Q3/Q4 loss at all costs. The Brown loss sucks, but all of their other losses have been to legit NCAA or NIT teams. It's not like they are sitting there with 2-3 Q3/Q4 losses.

RJ you are mainly right, but there's some dependencies. 3-3 means 21-9 walking in. It may depend on who the wins/losses are against. If we beat UMass/Fordham/St. Joe's, then the other 3 games are (I think) Q1/Q2 losses, so we are probably safe regardless of the A10 tournament. If we lose to one of UMass/Fordham/St. Joe's will the 3rd win need to be Dayton to make up for another Q3/Q4 loss?

I agree and I think I put that in one of my other posts. At this point to not be a tournament team heading to Brooklyn, those three losses would pretty much have to cost them 3 full seeds which I don't see at this point, not with Dayton being one of them. Dayton is pretty much a net-zero. Now if they took on a bad loss, I think that's a 1.5 or so seed drop (possibly more) in itself which could hurt and cut it close. I just can't see Q2 losses to STL and Davidson being that detrimental. I think people keep putting such a big focus on A10 standing which while important, is certainly not an end-all due to an unbalanced schedule. But alas, URI just needs to keep taking care of business, but I think there is definitely some wiggle room there just in case it's needed.

[ramster]

You guys are just negative nancies -- If URI is 21-9 entering the A10T, accumulating no additional Q3/Q4 losses, they should be fine. The bubble is charmin soft this year. They just need to avoid a Q3/Q4 loss at all costs.

Losing 3 of our last 6 games would likely not even get us One of the valued first 4 team seeds to get the bye in the A10 Tournament.
We would have 5 A10 losses if we lose 3 more games. We would not have the tiebreaker with Richmond. We would have to at least get to the Championship Game and probably would have to win it if we had 5 A10 losses. Maybe if we lost to Dayton in the Championship Game but it could not be a blow out.

I just think you are giving too much credit to the other bubble teams. I think many of those teams can do just enough to remain relevant, but I don't see any of them blowing by URI at this point. Is Stanford, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia, Arizona St., Cincy, Miss St., Minnesota, Memphis, Georgetown etc going to get red-hot and zoom right by URI? Probably not. Yes, some of those teams might pick up a really nice win or two. They'll also probably pile up their own losses. URI has solidified themselves enough at this point to look like a solid tournament team to most people. If they win on Saturday, I would be shocked if they aren't showing up in many brackets as a weaker 8-seed next week on BM. I'm sorry at that point I don't buy them falling 15-16+ spots in losses to 3 decent teams, including one truly great team. That may leave them wanting to do work in the A10T because of bid-stealers, etc, but that is a different story.

I’m not talking about other Bubble Teams. The A10 is not going to get 4 teams in, maybe 3, 2 could be possible if URI losses 3 of the next 6 as is the discussion now. URI would HAVE to get to the A10 Finals.

It’s all kind of dumb because URI is not going to lose 3 of their next 6.

If URI ended up with 5 losses then they would be with a large pack of teams. Look at Bonaventure and Richmond with currently only 3 losses. VCU and Duquesne with only 4 losses. So a lot would depend on how those 4 teams finish up the Conference Play. No way in hell URI is a highly probable NCAA selection if they finish (13-5).

6 remaining games
St Josephs
@Davidson
@Fordham
Saint Louis
Dayton
@UMASS

[rjsuperfly66]

The A10 is not going to get 4 teams in, maybe 3, 2 could be possible if URI losses 3 of the next 6 as is the discussion now. URI would HAVE to get to the A10 Finals.

It’s all kind of dumb because URI is not going to lose 3 of their next 6.

I guess I don't understand what you are getting at? The NCAA doesn't seed people by conference ranking, but overall resume. I don't know where the discussion of a 4th A10 team comes in unless you are assuming because someone jumps Rhody in the A10 standings, they work their way into the tournament. The A10 has an unbalanced schedule... URI will play Dayton and VCU twice. URI had an OOC SOS of 27 and a current SOS of 25. Someone like Richmond only played VCU twice in conference, had an OOC SOS of 114, and a current SOS of 89. So because they win a tiebreaker against URI for conference tournament seeding they suddenly jump into tourney contention? Of course not. I agree I don't think URI is going 3-3 either but I just happen to think there is plenty of wiggle room if things did start to go haywire before the A10T as long as they fixed it in Brooklyn.

[ramster]

The A10 is not going to get 4 teams in, maybe 3, 2 could be possible if URI losses 3 of the next 6 as is the discussion now. URI would HAVE to get to the A10 Finals.

It’s all kind of dumb because URI is not going to lose 3 of their next 6.

I guess I don't understand what you are getting at? The NCAA doesn't rank people by conference ranking, but overall resume. I don't know where the discussion of a 4th A10 team comes in unless you are assuming because someone jumps Rhody in the A10 standings, they work their way into the tournament. The A10 has an unbalanced schedule... URI will play Dayton and VCU twice. URI had an OOC SOS of 27 and a current SOS of 25. Someone like Richmond only played VCU twice in conference, had an OOC SOS of 114, and a current SOS of 89. So because they win a tiebreaker against URI for conference tournament seeding they suddenly jump into tourney contention? Of course not.

Point you are making is URI is not in trouble if they lose 3 of their last 6 games. I’m simply saying URI is in deep trouble if they lose 3 of their last 6. It’s that simple.

URI loses 3 of their last 6 games then I’d think winning out would be required. At the least would need Championship Final vs Dayton.

I’m nowhere near as confident as you that URI has no worries losing 3 of 6. That would mean losing 4 of our last 7. That spells big trouble. Minimum A10 Championship Game, and even then our team’s confidence would be so shaken having lost 4 of last 7 that reaching the A10 Championship Game would be very tough and highly unlikely.

[rjsuperfly66]

The A10 is not going to get 4 teams in, maybe 3, 2 could be possible if URI losses 3 of the next 6 as is the discussion now. URI would HAVE to get to the A10 Finals.

It’s all kind of dumb because URI is not going to lose 3 of their next 6.

I guess I don't understand what you are getting at? The NCAA doesn't rank people by conference ranking, but overall resume. I don't know where the discussion of a 4th A10 team comes in unless you are assuming because someone jumps Rhody in the A10 standings, they work their way into the tournament. The A10 has an unbalanced schedule... URI will play Dayton and VCU twice. URI had an OOC SOS of 27 and a current SOS of 25. Someone like Richmond only played VCU twice in conference, had an OOC SOS of 114, and a current SOS of 89. So because they win a tiebreaker against URI for conference tournament seeding they suddenly jump into tourney contention? Of course not.

Point you are making is URI is not in trouble if they lose 3 of their last 6 games. I’m simply saying URI is in deep trouble if they lose 3 of their last 6. It’s that simple.

URI loses 3 of their last 6 games then I’d think winning out would be required. At the least would need Championship Final vs Dayton.

I’m nowhere near as confident as you that URI has no worries losing 3 of 6.

Yes I get that but then you started talking about how the A10 would not get 4 teams which came out of left field since no one had been talking about the A10 getting 4 teams and then posted the A10 standings to further emphasis that point. My point above was to say I didn't understand why any of that mattered with regards to URI's overall resume due to unbalanced schedule, etc.? URI has put together a solid resume because not only have they won a lot of games but during conference play they've pretty much crushed all the teams they should crush. They have some solid wins, a very good SOS, and have avoided all landmines except one (Brown). There is a reason the "bracket" people see URI as a solid 9 seed. Look at it this way -- They got their ass waxed the other night and didn't move an inch. That's a credit to the way people see them and their resume, although the eliteness of the opponent helped.

[ramster]

I guess I don't understand what you are getting at? The NCAA doesn't rank people by conference ranking, but overall resume. I don't know where the discussion of a 4th A10 team comes in unless you are assuming because someone jumps Rhody in the A10 standings, they work their way into the tournament. The A10 has an unbalanced schedule... URI will play Dayton and VCU twice. URI had an OOC SOS of 27 and a current SOS of 25. Someone like Richmond only played VCU twice in conference, had an OOC SOS of 114, and a current SOS of 89. So because they win a tiebreaker against URI for conference tournament seeding they suddenly jump into tourney contention? Of course not.

Point you are making is URI is not in trouble if they lose 3 of their last 6 games. I’m simply saying URI is in deep trouble if they lose 3 of their last 6. It’s that simple.

URI loses 3 of their last 6 games then I’d think winning out would be required. At the least would need Championship Final vs Dayton.

I’m nowhere near as confident as you that URI has no worries losing 3 of 6.

Yes I get that but then you started talking about how the A10 would not get 4 teams which came out of left field since no one had been talking about the A10 getting 4 teams and then posted the A10 standings to further emphasis that point. My point above was to say I didn't understand why any of that mattered with regards to URI's overall resume due to unbalanced schedule, etc.? URI has put together a solid resume because not only have they won a lot of games but during conference play they've pretty much crushed all the teams they should crush. They have some solid wins, a very good SOS, and have avoided all landmines except one (Brown). There is a reason the "bracket" people see URI as a solid 9 seed. Look at it this way -- They got their ass waxed the other night and didn't move an inch. That's a credit to the way people see them and their resume, although the eliteness of the opponent helped.

Forget all that.
You said URI has nothing to worry about even if they lose 3 of their last 6. Simple. I think you are big time wrong in that statement.

[RamStock]

Point you are making is URI is not in trouble if they lose 3 of their last 6 games. I’m simply saying URI is in deep trouble if they lose 3 of their last 6. It’s that simple.

URI loses 3 of their last 6 games then I’d think winning out would be required. At the least would need Championship Final vs Dayton.

I’m nowhere near as confident as you that URI has no worries losing 3 of 6.

Yes I get that but then you started talking about how the A10 would not get 4 teams which came out of left field since no one had been talking about the A10 getting 4 teams and then posted the A10 standings to further emphasis that point. My point above was to say I didn't understand why any of that mattered with regards to URI's overall resume due to unbalanced schedule, etc.? URI has put together a solid resume because not only have they won a lot of games but during conference play they've pretty much crushed all the teams they should crush. They have some solid wins, a very good SOS, and have avoided all landmines except one (Brown). There is a reason the "bracket" people see URI as a solid 9 seed. Look at it this way -- They got their ass waxed the other night and didn't move an inch. That's a credit to the way people see them and their resume, although the eliteness of the opponent helped.

Forget all that.
You said URI has nothing to worry about even if they lose 3 of their last 6. Simple. I think you are big time wrong in that statement.

Anyone who doesn’t think if we close 3-3 and are out will be very disappointed. What is the feeling that they would be in good shape-just because we are URI fans? It is being bias because you want URI to be in like all of us. I don’t think we will go 3-3 anyway, but if we do no one should be upset when we get left out. We will be very upset that they failed down the stretch, but not because the committee didn’t take us. Let’s finish 5-1 and put it to bed

[RamStock]

Your mouth to (Shamm)god's ears, but I could see falling out with a 3-3 finish and losing in the A10 quarters. I flashback to Baron's several 20-win teams that fell short of the tourney every time. I'll believe a 21-10 URI team this millennium will make the tourney when I see it. That said, the scheduling was as good as can be expected to support a URI team with a very good but not great record to make it.

They are out with a 3-3 finish. Cmon seriously. You think if they lose to Dayton, Davidson and either St.Louis or Umass they are in good shape? They will be out real quick. Watch what happens to VCU after their loss tonight. They are out. A combination of losing quality VCU wins and not having enough else on their resume despite a weak bubble. I think 4-2 is going to be really testing the waters. This isn’t one of the Power 5 conferences

The difference is positioning. VCU will be out after tonight because they were already seen as a borderline tournament team who took a bad loss at home. That bumps them from a fringe playin team to a fringe #1 NIT seed at a minimum. As of last night URI was the 13th team from out in the field per BM. Losing to Dayton will do minimal. Taking L's to Davidson and SLU would not be pretty but shouldn't be earth-shattering. I'd see them as a mid-late 10 seed who couldn't afford any bad losses at the A10T and would probably want to snag one more nice W just to be safe. Now I think that would be different if they go 3-3 but sub out a UMASS loss for SLU, then I think they are in that 11-seed, play-in range where things can get hairy.

People outside the conference do now view St. Louis and Davidson as good teams or average at best. Their position would change quick and you have to take in account upsets in tournaments in a year like this.

[ramster]

They are out with a 3-3 finish. Cmon seriously. You think if they lose to Dayton, Davidson and either St.Louis or Umass they are in good shape? They will be out real quick. Watch what happens to VCU after their loss tonight. They are out. A combination of losing quality VCU wins and not having enough else on their resume despite a weak bubble. I think 4-2 is going to be really testing the waters. This isn’t one of the Power 5 conferences

The difference is positioning. VCU will be out after tonight because they were already seen as a borderline tournament team who took a bad loss at home. That bumps them from a fringe playin team to a fringe #1 NIT seed at a minimum. As of last night URI was the 13th team from out in the field per BM. Losing to Dayton will do minimal. Taking L's to Davidson and SLU would not be pretty but shouldn't be earth-shattering. I'd see them as a mid-late 10 seed who couldn't afford any bad losses at the A10T and would probably want to snag one more nice W just to be safe. Now I think that would be different if they go 3-3 but sub out a UMASS loss for SLU, then I think they are in that 11-seed, play-in range where things can get hairy.

People outside the conference do now view St. Louis and Davidson as good teams or average at best. Their position would change quick and you have to take in account upsets in tournaments in a year like this.

If we lose 3 of our last 6 games it won’t matter who we lost to. It’s wasted brain cells and anxiety to try to differentiate the proposed 3 losses.

I know we would need minimum Championship game appearance if we lose 3 of last 6 which would really be 4 of last 7 - a mini disaster.

I don’t care what the NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Joe Luniticardi, the Bilastrator, RPI or whatever say today - 3 losses in the next 3 weeks would put us out.

I even think 2 losses in our last 6 is too many and puts us at risk but 3 is a humongous reach to think the NCAA will come calling imho.

[RamStock]

The difference is positioning. VCU will be out after tonight because they were already seen as a borderline tournament team who took a bad loss at home. That bumps them from a fringe playin team to a fringe #1 NIT seed at a minimum. As of last night URI was the 13th team from out in the field per BM. Losing to Dayton will do minimal. Taking L's to Davidson and SLU would not be pretty but shouldn't be earth-shattering. I'd see them as a mid-late 10 seed who couldn't afford any bad losses at the A10T and would probably want to snag one more nice W just to be safe. Now I think that would be different if they go 3-3 but sub out a UMASS loss for SLU, then I think they are in that 11-seed, play-in range where things can get hairy.

People outside the conference do now view St. Louis and Davidson as good teams or average at best. Their position would change quick and you have to take in account upsets in tournaments in a year like this.

If we lose 3 of our last 6 games it won’t matter who we lost to. It’s wasted brain cells and anxiety to try to differentiate the proposed 3 losses.

I know we would need minimum Championship game appearance if we lose 3 of last 6 which would really be 4 of last 7 - a mini disaster.

I don’t care what the NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Joe Luniticardi, the Bilastrator, RPI or whatever say today - 3 losses in the next 3 weeks would put us out.

I even think 2 losses in our last 6 is too many and puts us at risk but 3 is a humongous reach to think the NCAA will come calling imho.

I think it is comical they people think we would be in at 3-3. I agree that 4-2 is going to be very close. A-10 tourney would be huge is we finish 4-2. Last four in/first four out stuff

[ramster]

People outside the conference do now view St. Louis and Davidson as good teams or average at best. Their position would change quick and you have to take in account upsets in tournaments in a year like this.

If we lose 3 of our last 6 games it won’t matter who we lost to. It’s wasted brain cells and anxiety to try to differentiate the proposed 3 losses.

I know we would need minimum Championship game appearance if we lose 3 of last 6 which would really be 4 of last 7 - a mini disaster.

I don’t care what the NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Joe Luniticardi, the Bilastrator, RPI or whatever say today - 3 losses in the next 3 weeks would put us out.

I even think 2 losses in our last 6 is too many and puts us at risk but 3 is a humongous reach to think the NCAA will come calling imho.

I think it is comical they people think we would be in at 3-3. I agree that 4-2 is going to be very close. A-10 tourney would be huge is we finish 4-2. Last four in/first four out stuff

100% agree

[bigappleram]

If those 2 losses are to Dayton and @Davidson you realize our NET will probably be pretty close to where it is now - mid 30s. That's a tourney team.

[TruePoint]

I hope we close 6-0 but two losses will not eliminate us. We will just have some work to do in Brooklyn. I don’t know what it is with this group, exactly (maybe scars from hoping for a miracle during the Baron era), but everyone always thinks our bubble situation is more perilous than it is. In ‘16-17, everyone thought we had to beat VCU in the A10 final to make it, and we found out later that was incorrect. In ‘17-18, we were easily, easily in the field but some here were worried that we’d fallen to the wrong side of the bubble after we lost a couple games down the stretch. This winter around Christmas almost everyone here said that we were screwed because we hadn’t beaten Maryland, LSU or WVU and that the chances to improve our NET were past us - obviously winning at VCU was hard to foresee and that was the real difference maker, but it wasn’t unimaginable to me that we could do well in conference and play our way into the field. I just think in general we have a bit of a syndrome in terms of how we evaluate where we are with respect to the bubble.

[RhodyRam86]

i'm in agreement with ramster here. I don't think there is a chance we get in if we go 3-3 down the stretch. and even at 4-2 I don't think things will be super comfortable without at least 1 or more likely 2 wins in Brooklyn.

A few weeks back TP supposed that it would take going 2-2 among the 2 games vs. Dayton, and one each vs Davidson and VCU and win every other game. Nothing has changed. I agreed then and still agree. So far we are 1-1. So I say we need to go 1-1 vs. Dayton and Davidson...and if you want to throw StL into the mix...then 2-1 and win all others.

[ramster]

Let’s not change the subject here
RJ claims we are more than likely in the NCAA Tournament even if
We lose 3 of our remaining 6 games in Conference

That is the discussion which myself and Ramstock disagree with

If we want to go to losing only 2 of our last 6 that can get into who those 2 losses are to.

But 3 losses and the NCAA is knocking on Rhody’s door? That’s nuts.

[TruePoint]

I do agree that 3-3 is not likely to be a winner.

[ramster]

And I’d lose the words “not likely”. I see no way URI gets an invite
Losing 4 of their last 7 unless at the sheer minimum going to the A10 Championship game, if not having to outright win the Championship.

[rjsuperfly66]

What is the feeling that they would be in good shape-just because we are URI fans? It is being bias because you want URI to be in like all of us.

Um dude, look at my avatar

People outside the conference do now view St. Louis and Davidson as good teams or average at best. Their position would change quick and you have to take in account upsets in tournaments in a year like this.

Eh, it's very possible all those things happened and URI still has a NET inside the 30s with a solid SOS, and some very good wins. Again you have to survey what others are doing, and realize the bubble is as soft as toilet paper after a bout of Montezuma's Revenge.

And I lose the words not likely. I see no way URI gets an invite
Losing 4 of their last 7 unless at the sheer minimum going to the A10 Championship game.

I think you are used to the A10 of recent history. Losing 2 games to a Top 5 team in Dayton is no shame. Heck, they'll probably be a 30 win team by the tournament and possible #1 seed. It's a little different than had they lost 4 out of 7 at any point in the last 3-4 years.

i'm in agreement with ramster here. I don't think there is a chance we get in if we go 3-3 down the stretch. and even at 4-2 I don't think things will be super comfortable without at least 1 or more likely 2 wins in Brooklyn.

Have you checked Bracket Matrix recently? Sure I guess BM is not gospel, but to the "experts," URI is in a pretty solid position presently. I'm not sure why people were comparing URI and VCU earlier when VCU has been flirting with being in and out for much of the last few weeks while URI has steadily climbed up the seed list.

Why do you guys think until last night, 13-11 PC was still showing up on people's "next 4 out" list. Because the bubble teams are charmin soft.

[RhodyRam86]

RJ...I guess it is a matter of perspective. A good friend, also a Friar fan and season ticket holder also thinks we have some leeway. Maybe we are just too conservative in our thinking. I just think with 1 Q1 win, no wins against anyone that is a lock for the tournament (outside possibly an auto bid for N Texas or W Kentucky, no wins vs. AP top 40, that maybe the all the metrics are not telling the full story.

[RamStock]

What is the feeling that they would be in good shape-just because we are URI fans? It is being bias because you want URI to be in like all of us.

Um dude, look at my avatar

People outside the conference do now view St. Louis and Davidson as good teams or average at best. Their position would change quick and you have to take in account upsets in tournaments in a year like this.

Eh, it's very possible all those things happened and URI still has a NET inside the 30s with a solid SOS, and some very good wins. Again you have to survey what others are doing, and realize the bubble is as soft as toilet paper after a bout of Montezuma's Revenge.

And I lose the words not likely. I see no way URI gets an invite
Losing 4 of their last 7 unless at the sheer minimum going to the A10 Championship game.

I think you are used to the A10 of recent history. Losing 2 games to a Top 5 team in Dayton is no shame. Heck, they'll probably be a 30 win team by the tournament and possible #1 seed. It's a little different than had they lost 4 out of 7 at any point in the last 3-4 years.

i'm in agreement with ramster here. I don't think there is a chance we get in if we go 3-3 down the stretch. and even at 4-2 I don't think things will be super comfortable without at least 1 or more likely 2 wins in Brooklyn.

Have you checked Bracket Matrix recently? Sure I guess BM is not gospel, but to the "experts," URI is in a pretty solid position presently. I'm not sure why people were comparing URI and VCU earlier when VCU has been flirting with being in and out for much of the last few weeks while URI has steadily climbed up the seed list.

Why do you guys think until last night, 13-11 PC was still showing up on people's "next 4 out" list. Because the bubble teams are charmin soft.

I get your PC avatar, but think in most cases you side on the complete opposite of most PC fans who think we are in a terrible conference and almost overstate our chances on situations like this. The point is meant for all anyone that feels URI would be safe at 3-3 and that can’t state a real case if we get left out. I see how soft the bubble is, but three or four of the spots will get taken by conference winners or teams that get out in tourney play.

[ramster]

What is the feeling that they would be in good shape-just because we are URI fans? It is being bias because you want URI to be in like all of us.

Um dude, look at my avatar

People outside the conference do now view St. Louis and Davidson as good teams or average at best. Their position would change quick and you have to take in account upsets in tournaments in a year like this.

Eh, it's very possible all those things happened and URI still has a NET inside the 30s with a solid SOS, and some very good wins. Again you have to survey what others are doing, and realize the bubble is as soft as toilet paper after a bout of Montezuma's Revenge.

And I lose the words not likely. I see no way URI gets an invite
Losing 4 of their last 7 unless at the sheer minimum going to the A10 Championship game.

I think you are used to the A10 of recent history. Losing 2 games to a Top 5 team in Dayton is no shame. Heck, they'll probably be a 30 win team by the tournament and possible #1 seed. It's a little different than had they lost 4 out of 7 at any point in the last 3-4 years.

i'm in agreement with ramster here. I don't think there is a chance we get in if we go 3-3 down the stretch. and even at 4-2 I don't think things will be super comfortable without at least 1 or more likely 2 wins in Brooklyn.

Have you checked Bracket Matrix recently? Sure I guess BM is not gospel, but to the "experts," URI is in a pretty solid position presently. I'm not sure why people were comparing URI and VCU earlier when VCU has been flirting with being in and out for much of the last few weeks while URI has steadily climbed up the seed list.

Why do you guys think until last night, 13-11 PC was still showing up on people's "next 4 out" list. Because the bubble teams are charmin soft.

I get your PC avatar, but think in most cases you side on the complete opposite of most PC fans who think we are in a terrible conference and almost overstate our chances on situations like this. The point is meant for all anyone that feels URI would be safe at 3-3 and that can’t state a real case if we get left out. I see how soft the bubble is, but three or four of the spots will get taken by conference winners or teams that get out in tourney play.

I don’t think the bubble is any softer than any year.
Once we all play the last 5-7 games left on schedules, then play the conference Tournaments all the P5, Big East, AAC, Auto Conference Tourney winners will all be arguing and justifying why they should be in.
URI with 3 losses in last 6 games will not look so good.

I don’t trust the NET. It showed VCU rated ahead of URI when they had a worse overall record, worse A10 record and lost both games to URI - made no sense at all. So I’ll let the end of season records and conference tournament records speak for themselves
All will work out. We must go 5-1 and minimum 5-2
If 5-1 I think we can lose in Semi Finals and get in
If 4-2 I think we need to go to Championship game and can lose it
If 3-3 I think we need to minimum go to Championship game and probably will need to win it. Depends if it’s Dayton in it or not.

[Blue Man]

You guys are just negative nancies -- If URI is 21-9 entering the A10T, accumulating no additional Q3/Q4 losses, they should be fine. The bubble is charmin soft this year. They just need to avoid a Q3/Q4 loss at all costs.

Losing 3 of our last 6 games would likely not even get us One of the valued first 4 team seeds to get the bye in the A10 Tournament.
We would have 5 A10 losses if we lose 3 more games. We would not have the tiebreaker with Richmond. We would have to at least get to the Championship Game and probably would have to win it if we had 5 A10 losses. Maybe if we lost to Dayton in the Championship Game but it could not be a blow out.

I just think you are giving too much credit to the other bubble teams. I think many of those teams can do just enough to remain relevant, but I don't see any of them blowing by URI at this point. Is Stanford, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia, Arizona St., Cincy, Miss St., Minnesota, Memphis, Georgetown etc going to get red-hot and zoom right by URI? Probably not. Yes, some of those teams might pick up a really nice win or two. They'll also probably pile up their own losses. URI has solidified themselves enough at this point to look like a solid tournament team to most people. If they win on Saturday, I would be shocked if they aren't showing up in many brackets as a weaker 8-seed next week on BM. I'm sorry at that point I don't buy them falling 15-16+ spots in losses to 3 decent teams, including one truly great team. That may leave them wanting to do work in the A10T because of bid-stealers, etc, but that is a different story.

I understand your point, but I disagree on the charmin soft take of other bubble teams. Specifically Xavier, Indiana, Virginia, Minnesota, or Georgetown. Hell even Stanford and ASU.

While they may be soft today...today isn't selection sunday. And yes, our resume against theirs at this point in time is superior.

However, URI has 1 Q1, 2 Q2, and 3 Q3/Q4 games remaining. The B1G and Big East teams literally do not have a Q3 or Q4 game on their schedules. They can lose games and have their metrics go up. They can win games and jump in front of URI if we falter because they're adding wins against NCAA teams.

We have 3 landmines and only 1 opportunity to impress the committee remaining. Each one of those teams has nothing but opportunity ahead of them.

3-3 in the next 6 is tantamount to a Baron collapse. 10-1 and 3-4 is almost 2009-10 all over again.

4-2 is the bare minimum for what this team needs to do to feel somewhat confident in a bid, without dropping a Q3 or Q4.

[theblueram]

How about everyone take a breathe and wait till after the Joes game. We ran the table for 5 weeks and lost to Dayton on their court. Dayton is awesome this year. That's why they are 20-2. The boys are playing in 2 days to a sold out house. They left Dayton bloodied and bruised but never gave up. This team has some more winning to do so no need to talk about losses until it happens.

[ramster]

Losing 3 of our last 6 games would likely not even get us One of the valued first 4 team seeds to get the bye in the A10 Tournament.
We would have 5 A10 losses if we lose 3 more games. We would not have the tiebreaker with Richmond. We would have to at least get to the Championship Game and probably would have to win it if we had 5 A10 losses. Maybe if we lost to Dayton in the Championship Game but it could not be a blow out.

I just think you are giving too much credit to the other bubble teams. I think many of those teams can do just enough to remain relevant, but I don't see any of them blowing by URI at this point. Is Stanford, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia, Arizona St., Cincy, Miss St., Minnesota, Memphis, Georgetown etc going to get red-hot and zoom right by URI? Probably not. Yes, some of those teams might pick up a really nice win or two. They'll also probably pile up their own losses. URI has solidified themselves enough at this point to look like a solid tournament team to most people. If they win on Saturday, I would be shocked if they aren't showing up in many brackets as a weaker 8-seed next week on BM. I'm sorry at that point I don't buy them falling 15-16+ spots in losses to 3 decent teams, including one truly great team. That may leave them wanting to do work in the A10T because of bid-stealers, etc, but that is a different story.

I understand your point, but I disagree on the charmin soft take of other bubble teams. Specifically Xavier, Indiana, Virginia, Minnesota, or Georgetown. Hell even Stanford and ASU.

While they may be soft today...today isn't selection sunday. And yes, our resume against theirs at this point in time is superior.

However, URI has 1 Q1, 2 Q2, and 3 Q3/Q4 games remaining. The B1G and Big East teams literally do not have a Q3 or Q4 game on their schedules. They can lose games and have their metrics go up. They can win games and jump in front of URI if we falter because they're adding wins against NCAA teams.

We have 3 landmines and only 1 opportunity to impress the committee remaining. Each one of those teams has nothing but opportunity ahead of them.

3-3 in the next 6 is tantamount to a Baron collapse. 10-1 and 3-4 is almost 2009-10 all over again.

4-2 is the bare minimum for what this team needs to do to feel somewhat confident in a bid, without dropping a Q3 or Q4.

Basically what I said too

[RhowdyRam02]

We're still probably in if we go 3-3. If Dayton is one of those losses we won't be penalized for losing to them. If we upset Dayton that will be big enough to cancel out at least one loss if not two.

[mstyles22]

Rhody has a solid resume but is lacking that "signature win". VCU losing at home last night to Mason certainly didn't help. Nor did Alabama coming up short.

That's why no bad losses and somehow winning that Dayton game is so important. IMO if we can win the Dayton game, we can go 4-2 (as long as the losses aren't to St. Joes or Fordham) and still get in.

But I keep having nightmares about the 2009-2010 team. A team that had a 15-2 stretch in the middle of the season before faltering down the stretch.

That team had losses:
by 2 @ VCU (who went 27-9 and won the CBI)
by 4 in OT at home vs #21 Temple (who won the A-10 and danced as a #5 seed)
by 9 @ Xavier (who went 26-9 and got an at-large bid as a #6 seed)
by 2 at home vs Richmond (who went 26-9 and got an at-large bid as a #7 seed)
by 22 @ #21 Temple
by 5 @ St. Louis (who went 23-13 and lost to VCU in CBI finals)
by 7 @ Bonnies (who went 15-16)
by 2 @ UMass (who went 12-20)

Then by 13 in A-10 semis to #17 Temple

(The Bonnies and UMass losses were 2 of the last 3 games of the regular season)

The only signature wins were beating Oklahoma St. by 4 at Mohegan (who got an at-large as a #7 seed) and by 2 @ Dayton (Marquis buzzer beater #2) (who won the NIT) .

I know the metrics were different back then, but we all know that Rhody team was definitely one of the best 40 teams in the country, much like this season. It was a combination of two bad losses down the stretch and the inability to beat Temple that killed them. Dayton is a much better team than that Temple team, but losing to Fordham or St. Joe's would be horrible.

So like Blue Man always says, let's just win this next one. Then we have a week to pull our hair out thinking about Davidson going off from 3 point land in a week.

I'll take being in the discussion over playing for pride ALLLLL day. But man, can it drive you crazy sometimes.

Go Rhody.

[theblueram]

Rhody has a solid resume but is lacking that "signature win". VCU losing at home last night to Mason certainly didn't help. Nor did Alabama coming up short.

That's why no bad losses and somehow winning that Dayton game is so important. IMO if we can win the Dayton game, we can go 4-2 (as long as the losses aren't to St. Joes or Fordham) and still get in.

But I keep having nightmares about the 2009-2010 team. A team that had a 15-2 stretch in the middle of the season before faltering down the stretch.

That team had losses:
by 2 @ VCU (who went 27-9 and won the CBI)
by 4 in OT at home vs #21 Temple (who won the A-10 and danced as a #5 seed)
by 9 @ Xavier (who went 26-9 and got an at-large bid as a #6 seed)
by 2 at home vs Richmond (who went 26-9 and got an at-large bid as a #7 seed)
by 22 @ #21 Temple
by 5 @ St. Louis (who went 23-13 and lost to VCU in CBI finals)
by 7 @ Bonnies (who went 15-16)
by 2 @ UMass (who went 12-20)

Then by 13 in A-10 semis to #17 Temple

(The Bonnies and UMass losses were 2 of the last 3 games of the regular season)

The only signature wins were beating Oklahoma St. by 4 at Mohegan (who got an at-large as a #7 seed) and by 2 @ Dayton (Marquis buzzer beater #2) (who won the NIT) .

I know the metrics were different back then, but we all know that Rhody team was definitely one of the best 40 teams in the country, much like this season. It was a combination of two bad losses down the stretch and the inability to beat Temple that killed them. Dayton is a much better team than that Temple team, but losing to Fordham or St. Joe's would be horrible.

So like Blue Man always says, let's just win this next one. Then we have a week to pull our hair out thinking about Davidson going off from 3 point land in a week.

I'll take being in the discussion over playing for pride ALLLLL day. But man, can it drive you crazy sometimes.

Go Rhody.

Lucky for us we have a new coach who is a great in game strategist.

[RhowdyRam02]

I don’t think the bubble is any softer than any year.
Once we all play the last 5-7 games left on schedules, then play the conference Tournaments all the P5, Big East, AAC, Auto Conference Tourney winners will all be arguing and justifying why they should be in.
URI with 3 losses in last 6 games will not look so good.

I don’t trust the NET. It showed VCU rated ahead of URI when they had a worse overall record, worse A10 record and lost both games to URI - made no sense at all. So I’ll let the end of season records and conference tournament records speak for themselves
All will work out. We must go 5-1 and minimum 5-2
If 5-1 I think we can lose in Semi Finals and get in
If 4-2 I think we need to go to Championship game and can lose it
If 3-3 I think we need to minimum go to Championship game and probably will need to win it. Depends if it’s Dayton in it or not.

I can't say I've looked at it every year, but this year bubble teams are just barely over .500 which is a good bit worse than the first Hurley tournament year. The bubble is soft as Taco Bell hangover shits this year

[steviep123]

Um dude, look at my avatar



Eh, it's very possible all those things happened and URI still has a NET inside the 30s with a solid SOS, and some very good wins. Again you have to survey what others are doing, and realize the bubble is as soft as toilet paper after a bout of Montezuma's Revenge.



I think you are used to the A10 of recent history. Losing 2 games to a Top 5 team in Dayton is no shame. Heck, they'll probably be a 30 win team by the tournament and possible #1 seed. It's a little different than had they lost 4 out of 7 at any point in the last 3-4 years.



Have you checked Bracket Matrix recently? Sure I guess BM is not gospel, but to the "experts," URI is in a pretty solid position presently. I'm not sure why people were comparing URI and VCU earlier when VCU has been flirting with being in and out for much of the last few weeks while URI has steadily climbed up the seed list.

Why do you guys think until last night, 13-11 PC was still showing up on people's "next 4 out" list. Because the bubble teams are charmin soft.

I get your PC avatar, but think in most cases you side on the complete opposite of most PC fans who think we are in a terrible conference and almost overstate our chances on situations like this. The point is meant for all anyone that feels URI would be safe at 3-3 and that can’t state a real case if we get left out. I see how soft the bubble is, but three or four of the spots will get taken by conference winners or teams that get out in tourney play.

I don’t think the bubble is any softer than any year.
Once we all play the last 5-7 games left on schedules, then play the conference Tournaments all the P5, Big East, AAC, Auto Conference Tourney winners will all be arguing and justifying why they should be in.
URI with 3 losses in last 6 games will not look so good.

I don’t trust the NET. It showed VCU rated ahead of URI when they had a worse overall record, worse A10 record and lost both games to URI - made no sense at all. So I’ll let the end of season records and conference tournament records speak for themselves
All will work out. We must go 5-1 and minimum 5-2
If 5-1 I think we can lose in Semi Finals and get in
If 4-2 I think we need to go to Championship game and can lose it
If 3-3 I think we need to minimum go to Championship game and probably will need to win it. Depends if it’s Dayton in it or not.

I'm a tad more optimistic. I think we are solidly in with 5-1 or 6-0 down the stretch regardless of A10 tourney. Any wins in the A10 tourney would work to boost seed, but we are a lock at that point.

4-2 with the two losses in the Davidson/Dayton/SLU trio is still a lock or at least very close. I don't see our position falling great enough. I would like to see a win or two in the A10 just in case we have the unforeseen circumstance of too many bid stealers. There are always a few, but if we have more than the norm, then that could be a problem.

Where I get nervous is 4-2 that includes a loss in the Fordham/St. Joe's/UMass trio. That would be a bad loss and would require a win over Dayton to make up for.

3-3 would also make me very nervous as well. At 3-3, the best case scenario is we win all three of the Ford/St. Joe's/UMass trio and lose the Davidson/Dayton/SLU trio. In that case it all depends on how that affects our NET and other metrics, but I personally wouldn't feel comfortable unless we get to the conference championship.

With respect to # of bids, VCU played themselves out of the tourney last night and has some work to do. I don't see a path for 4 bids, unless VCU and URI both win out, and neither them nor Dayton win the tourney. In that scenario, VCU might have to make at least the semis. But if that happens, does that team steal the bid from VCU? Similarly, instead of VCU winning out, does Richmond have strong enough metrics to win out, then lose to Duquesne (for example) in the championship and still get in? It's an interesting question.

However, when people say, a conference should get X number of bids, they mean the number they should get assuming another team without a shot doesn't pull off the tournament miracle. I don't see a 4 bid path unless some team without a chance wins the A10 tournament and steals a bid. And if that happens, they may just steal the bid from another team in the A10.

[Blue Man]

I just think you are giving too much credit to the other bubble teams. I think many of those teams can do just enough to remain relevant, but I don't see any of them blowing by URI at this point. Is Stanford, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia, Arizona St., Cincy, Miss St., Minnesota, Memphis, Georgetown etc going to get red-hot and zoom right by URI? Probably not. Yes, some of those teams might pick up a really nice win or two. They'll also probably pile up their own losses. URI has solidified themselves enough at this point to look like a solid tournament team to most people. If they win on Saturday, I would be shocked if they aren't showing up in many brackets as a weaker 8-seed next week on BM. I'm sorry at that point I don't buy them falling 15-16+ spots in losses to 3 decent teams, including one truly great team. That may leave them wanting to do work in the A10T because of bid-stealers, etc, but that is a different story.

I understand your point, but I disagree on the charmin soft take of other bubble teams. Specifically Xavier, Indiana, Virginia, Minnesota, or Georgetown. Hell even Stanford and ASU.

While they may be soft today...today isn't selection sunday. And yes, our resume against theirs at this point in time is superior.

However, URI has 1 Q1, 2 Q2, and 3 Q3/Q4 games remaining. The B1G and Big East teams literally do not have a Q3 or Q4 game on their schedules. They can lose games and have their metrics go up. They can win games and jump in front of URI if we falter because they're adding wins against NCAA teams.

We have 3 landmines and only 1 opportunity to impress the committee remaining. Each one of those teams has nothing but opportunity ahead of them.

3-3 in the next 6 is tantamount to a Baron collapse. 10-1 and 3-4 is almost 2009-10 all over again.

4-2 is the bare minimum for what this team needs to do to feel somewhat confident in a bid, without dropping a Q3 or Q4.

Basically what I said too

Yeah lol. I saw your post updated but I had already written a lot of words. Didn't want to delete haha.

[PeterRamTime]

I think it is in our best interest for VCU to get back into the tournament.

The committee says every year how they value how you performed against the field, so that is two NCAA wins right there if they take care of business.

VCU could win at Richmond, lose to Dayton and beat Saint Louis and be in alright shape after that. They're only in first four out right now.

Alabama and PC still have a ton of big win opportunities.

I'm also thinking about it like this. If we win our next four

St Joe's
@Davidson
@Fordham
SLU

We are 100 percent a lock.

If we are a 9 seed right now or at worst a high 10 seed then after that we would have to be in the 7 or 8 range going into that game against Dayton.

We can all break it down so many different ways.

If we just play like we have been playing, minus the Dayton 17-0 fiasco, then we will be fine.

[4Diffs]

Blue Man, why do you keep on saying we only have one opportunity to impress the committee? It is not only about Q1 wins, Q2 wins are valuable as well, and Davidson would solidly be a Q2 win and St. Louis is one spot outside of being a Q2 win. Hopefully they move back into the top 75 so that would be a Q2 win. Bottom line if they go 4 and 2 in their last six games, they are solidly in. They could lose at Davidson and home to Dayton and still be in the tournament. Davidson is not going to be an easy game. They were struggling earlier in the year, but since they are so well coached they have gotten a lot better during the course of the year. Plus Grady looks like he has found his game, he was pretty bad earlier in the year and they have a freshman who looks pretty good who did not play in the first game. Curious as to how they do at St. Bonaventure tomorrow night.

[steviep123]

I think it is in our best interest for VCU to get back into the tournament.

The committee says every year how they value how you performed against the field, so that is two NCAA wins right there if they take care of business.

VCU could win at Richmond, lose to Dayton and beat Saint Louis and be in alright shape after that. They're only in first four out right now.

Alabama and PC still have a ton of big win opportunities.

I'm also thinking about it like this. If we win our next four

St Joe's
@Davidson
@Fordham
SLU

We are 100 percent a lock.

If we are a 9 seed right now or at worst a high 10 seed then after that we would have to be in the 7 or 8 range going into that game against Dayton.

We can all break it down so many different ways.

If we just play like we have been playing, minus the Dayton 17-0 fiasco, then we will be fine.

Mostly agree. I think if we play the way we were playing during the streak, particularly in some spurts where we destroyed teams (the 2nd half vs. Duquesne comes to mind), then we should win the next 4. Of course, at Davidson scares me as they've been playing better lately and SLU will be tough.

I know wins over St. Joe's and Fordham won't move the needle much (like losing to Dayton didn't). Will beating Davidson and SLU move the needle that much? That's a question I don't know the answer to.

[TruePoint]

They don’t need to move the needle. If the needle just stays where it is we are easily in the tournament. But the reality is if URI keeps winning the needle will move and we will keep moving up in the pecking order. Even if wins against SLU and Davidson don’t shake the earth they’re still Q2/top-100 wins, meanwhile other bubble teams are going to continue to lose. If we wake up on March 2 without any more losses than we have today we will be so far inside the field that we could get shutout by Dayton and still be in the field. Honestly, having Dayton next in that scenario is the best case possible because that is a true house money game - losing it would cost nothing but winning it would open the opportunity for maybe the best tournament seeding in program history.

This stuff is fun to talk about but there is so much more to happen it’s almost pointless right now. But with (hopefully) an uncompetitive game Saturday and then a week off, this thread will probably be 15 pages before the Davidson game starts.

[Rhody15]

Worst case scenario, beat St Louis, UMASS, St Joes, Fordham, lose to Dayton, Davidson, and in the quarterfinals.

22-9 get us in?

[section(105)]

......the U Mass game concerns me greatly......last six, 4-2 we get in, 3-3 is sweat it out big time n selection Sunday, we would have to reach A-10 final if the last six is 3-3......

[rjsuperfly66]

I can't say I've looked at it every year, but this year bubble teams are just barely over .500 which is a good bit worse than the first Hurley tournament year. The bubble is soft as Taco Bell hangover shits this year

So I just looked super quick. This year, there are 7 teams in Bracket Matrix from P5+BE that are projected a 10 seed or worse to make the tournament. Those teams currently have 56 losses, but using KenPom projections and assuming each team losses in it's conference tournament, they are on pace for 90 losses. Last year, there were 7 P5+BE teams that finished a 10 seed or worse that made the tournament. They finished with a combined 88 losses. In 2018 there was another 7 teams that fit that criteria who also combined for 88 losses. 2017 was a little stronger at 84 combined losses by 7 teams. So I guess it's not as bad as it feels compared to recent history.

[Blue Man]

Blue Man, why do you keep on saying we only have one opportunity to impress the committee? It is not only about Q1 wins, Q2 wins are valuable as well, and Davidson would solidly be a Q2 win and St. Louis is one spot outside of being a Q2 win. Hopefully they move back into the top 75 so that would be a Q2 win. Bottom line if they go 4 and 2 in their last six games, they are solidly in. They could lose at Davidson and home to Dayton and still be in the tournament. Davidson is not going to be an easy game. They were struggling earlier in the year, but since they are so well coached they have gotten a lot better during the course of the year. Plus Grady looks like he has found his game, he was pretty bad earlier in the year and they have a freshman who looks pretty good who did not play in the first game. Curious as to how they do at St. Bonaventure tomorrow night.

You're absolutely right - I didn't clarify my statement well enough.

Q2 wins are valuable and necessary - but I don't view them as "impressive" if that makes sense.

Like you win or lose a Q2 game and it doesn't move the needle by itself, it just looks more impressive as a grouping. A Q2 loss certainly doesn't hurt you, just like a Q2 win doesn't raise any eyebrows and make you a "lock" per se.

Plus, most Q2 games like @Davidson and hosting St Louis - aren't against NCAA teams. They're against the outside bubble/NIT rankings.

Q1 games don't hurt you as a loss - but they launch you for a win. They're hard to come by for most teams, and we have 1 left. That's exacerbated by the fact that everyone else chasing us on the bubble has multiple Q1 games remaining.

Hopefully that explains it a bit more.